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Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2  
User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 29190 times:

With the first thread on this topic getting a bit long, this is the new thread in which to continue the discussion of the crash of Kenya Airways flight 507.

235 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineOPNLguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 29102 times:

More conflicting info on the location of the crash site. One report says 6 miles from the airport; another report says 18 miles.

Here are two Google Earth captures for each distance from the airport. The airport is in the upper left hand corner, and the respective 6/18 mile distance runs due east, so you can make your own arc... Let the photo analysis begin...

6 Miles from airport...
http://i34.photobucket.com/albums/d143/OPNLguy/doualacameroonairportarea6miles.jpg

18 miles from airport...
http://i34.photobucket.com/albums/d143/OPNLguy/doualacameroonairportarea18miles.jpg


User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 26497 posts, RR: 58
Reply 2, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 29105 times:

Just a question that was made in the previous thread where a poster said it was more tricky to fly a 737-800 than other 737's. Im just wondering why ???


AEGEAN-OLYMPIC AIR - ΟΛΥΜΠΙΑΚΗ " μέλος στη Star Alliance
User currently offlineAntskip From Australia, joined Jan 2006, 910 posts, RR: 6
Reply 3, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 29028 times:

The Australian reports that wreckage was found only 20Km SE of DLA.

Quote:
the wreckage of the plane has been located in the small village of Mbanga Pongo, in the Douala III subdivision. We are putting in place rescue measures," Cameroon's Minister of State for Territorial Administration Hamidou Yaya Marafa said.
"For now we cannot say whether there were any survivors or not. Access to the area is very difficult," he said. "We are beginning a new painful phase. Our task will be more difficult now, the task of recovering the corpses." An aviation official said a ground team was at the site and a search party was trying to reach the area by helicopter. It was more than 100km from the zone where radar-equipped helicopters, ground search parties and villagers on motorbikes had spent much of the weekend combing thick tropical forest. Kenya Airways Group Managing Director Titus Naikuni said in Nairobi that local fishermen had led rescuers to the crash site. "We are told the aircraft was covered by a canopy of trees, and that was the delay in sighting the crash site," he said.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...tory/0,20867,21684312-1702,00.html


User currently offlineOPNLguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 28883 times:

Quoting Antskip (Reply 3):
The Australian reports that wreckage was found only 20Km SE of DLA.

OK, another distance, which is about 12.5 miles... Here's a map for that too...

12.5 miles (20Km) from airport...
http://i34.photobucket.com/albums/d143/OPNLguy/doualacameroonairportarea12_5miles.jpg


User currently offlineETFokker50 From Netherlands, joined Feb 2006, 107 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 28825 times:

There's enough water in that area for a plane to crash, it looks like. But it looks more like a river to me than a swamp, though that is hard to tell. I guess that the area between the rivers isn't exactly dry either. 20km is not much though. I regret to have to say this is sounding more and more like the last KQ crash - except there the impact was into the sea, but also very shortly after takeoff!

User currently offlineOmoo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 28752 times:

The kenyan Standard reporting Wreckage found 60 Miles from the airport.

Quote:


A Kenya Airways plane that went missing with 114 passengers and crew on board has been located.
The airline’s CEO, Mr Titus Naikuni, confirmed last night that Flight KQ 507 from Douala to Nairobi had been located in a mangrove swamp 20km southeast of Douala.
Naikuni said there was no confirmed information on survivors or any possible casualties.
The aircraft was more than 100 km (60 miles) away from the zone where radar-equipped helicopters, ground search parties and villagers on motorbikes had spent much of Saturday and Sunday combing thick tropical forest.
Naikuni said the search and rescue operation was still in progress and the KQ team was at the accident scene.
The CEO said the rescue team, led by Cameroonian authorities, had relied on the information given by local fishermen to locate the wreckage.
A dispatch posted on the airline’s website had earlier said fishermen reported hearing a loud bang "that was accompanied by significant water disturbance".

http://www.eastandard.net/archives/c...news/news.php?articleid=1143968290


User currently offlineLegoguy From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2006, 3311 posts, RR: 40
Reply 7, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 28727 times:

Quoting Antskip (Reply 3):
the wreckage of the plane has been located in the small village of Mbanga Pongo,

If the crash is near the village and not actually on top of the village then perhaps if there were any survivors, the villagers may have been able to help, despite their lack of basic resources.

Quoting Antskip (Reply 3):
Group Managing Director Titus Naikuni said in Nairobi that local fishermen had led rescuers to the crash site. "We are told the aircraft was covered by a canopy of trees, and that was the delay in sighting the crash site,"

Could this mean a shallow crash angle, thus meaning trees ended up covering the crash spot?



Can you say 'Beer Can' without sounding like a Jamaican saying 'Bacon'?
User currently onlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8204 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 28625 times:

This sounds like a scenario where some people could survive.

User currently offlineJetdeltamsy From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 2986 posts, RR: 8
Reply 9, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 28555 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 8):
This sounds like a scenario where some people could survive.

How so?

We know nothing of how the aircraft went down or even precisely where it went down. If it went down 20km from DLA as is most widely reported, it certainly had gained some altitude.

Was it shot down? Engine failure? Windshear? Terrorism?

Doesn't pay to speculate at this time. There isn't enough information about anything to say anything with any creditability.



Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
User currently offlineRichM From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2004, 796 posts, RR: 7
Reply 10, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 28003 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 8):
This sounds like a scenario where some people could survive.

I'd like to know what makes you think this. I am unable to think of any positive factors here, which makes me question why you see signs of hope. It all looks pretty grim to me. (Based mainly on common sense and simple logic)


User currently onlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8204 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 27932 times:

Quoting RichM (Reply 10):
I'd like to know what makes you think this. I am unable to think of any positive factors here,

We don't have any terrible factors either. We only know the jet went down in a swampy area, right? Do we know the speed at impact? If it's 110 knots, we might have survivors, but I agree, probably not. But it's worth sending rescuers. Even if you survive, the jungle might kill you in a few days. Or if you need medical care, much more quickly.


User currently offlinePhilb From Ireland, joined May 1999, 2915 posts, RR: 13
Reply 12, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 27807 times:

Whilst there is still a great deal of confusion surrounding the actual location the proximity to the airpiort of the currently reported site(s)compared to previously quoted locations would, if proved true and given the weather conditions, militate for a windshear/microburst accident during climb.

User currently offlineEMA747 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2006, 1170 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 27758 times:

Hope this is of some interest.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/6630953.stm

Quote:
"Kenya Airways regrets to confirm that its flight KQ 507 has been located on a mangrove swamp 20km (12 miles) south of Douala," CEO Titus Naikuni told a news conference in Nairobi.

White line shows 20km South of Douala airport.
http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e312/thegreek2213/douala.jpg

Quoting Philb (Reply 12):
a windshear/microburst accident during climb.

What is this?



Failing doesn’t make you a failure. Giving up and refusing to try again does!
User currently offlineStirling From Italy, joined Jun 2004, 3943 posts, RR: 22
Reply 14, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 26852 times:

I am not a meteorologist, but looking at the stock Google satellite imagery, and the Popcorn effect of the clouds, reiterates that the environment here is hot, and damp, which If I am not mistaken, are the perfect conditions for microburst and windshear events. And just look at how many there are, how is an aircraft, any aircraft, supposed to run that gauntlet at the altitude the Kenya flight would have been.
It could go from calm, to all hell breaking loose weather-wise, in a matter of meters, let alone kilometers.


I wonder what the altitude should have been at 12.5km out?

I was on the LBJ approaching the International Pkwy when the DL 1011 went down......a big boy helpless against nature.



Delete this User
User currently offlineCRGsFuture From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 536 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 26464 times:

Ok, I read one report where it says the flight was carrying a flight engineer? No offense, but why? The computers onboard a 738 take out the need for one, are you sure this isn't a 732?

Quote:
reiterates that the environment here is hot, and damp, which If I am not mistaken, are the perfect conditions for microburst and windshear events

More like thermals especially due to the water present. However I did not take a look at the lifting air chart so I cannot confirm the chance for microbursts.

[Edited 2007-05-07 05:41:41]


Flying you to your destination; your girlfriend to her dreams.
User currently offlineOPNLguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 26418 times:

Quoting Omoo (Reply 6):
The kenyan Standard reporting Wreckage found 60 Miles from the airport.



Quoting EMA747 (Reply 13):
White line shows 20km South of Douala airport.

6, 18, 12.5, now 60 miles. I channel-hopped the 10pm news here plus CNN, and heard them all, along with south, south-southeast, and southeast of the airport. Until some authortative source reports a lat-lon, I'd forget about the media...

Quoting Philb (Reply 12):
a windshear/microburst accident during climb.



Quoting EMA747 (Reply 13):
What is this?

Check-out the www.aviation-safety.net website and look-up the Pan Am 759 accident at MSY back in 1982, as that's the scenario I think Philb was referring to.

[Edited 2007-05-07 05:55:08]

User currently offlineOPNLguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 26376 times:

Quoting CRGsFuture (Reply 15):
Ok, I read one report where it says the flight was carrying a flight engineer? No offense, but why? The computers onboard a 738 take out the need for one, are you sure this isn't a 732?

In many parts of the world, the "flight engineer" in this context is a mechanic who travels with the aircraft, usually in the cockpit jumpseat. He has no duties inflight (that I'm aware of), but is along to handle fueling during the turn, and be available to fix anything that breaks.


User currently offlineBlrBird From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 578 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 26331 times:

Quoting CRGsFuture (Reply 15):
Ok, I read one report where it says the flight was carrying a flight engineer? No offense, but why?

I am not positive but read in previous thread that, in this part of the world its hard to find someone who can do that kinda job if needed.



from star dust....
User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 25979 times:

The flight engineer was apparently dead-heading back to Nairobi. He was not listed as an official crew member.

Also, while I applaud the optimism some have on this site for finding survivors, I seriously doubt we will find any.

Something happened to the aircraft that made it impossible to return to Douala. No pilot would risk crash landing in the dark into unknown terrain, when the airport was only 20 km away.

Like many, I hope that the aircraft miraculously made a planned landing into swampy territory, and that the fuselage is intact with survivors waiting for rescue inside, but I remain pessimistic. In all likelihood, it slammed into the swamp and shattered both itself and its human cargo into a million bits.


User currently offlineAirnewzealand From New Zealand, joined Oct 2000, 2541 posts, RR: 6
Reply 20, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 25422 times:

Jaysit,

I dont know about other airlines, but in my airline, you are to get out of the aircraft (even if intact) and find shelter with the slides up-wind.


User currently offlineAntskip From Australia, joined Jan 2006, 910 posts, RR: 6
Reply 21, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 25320 times:

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 19):
Like many, I hope that the aircraft miraculously made a planned landing into swampy territory, and that the fuselage is intact with survivors waiting for rescue inside, but I remain pessimistic.

It appears from sketchy reports that the KQ team has been at the crash site for hours, so it is very unlikely that there have been survivors. If there were any, surely that is the first communication that would have come out of there!


User currently offlineCV990 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 24707 times:

Hi!

I was just checking CBS News homepage this morning and there was a report from a US pilot called Patrick Smith saying, and I quote - "Whatever happened, must have happened very fast which is usually a sign of catastrophic structural faillure....a plane never takes off into a thunderstorm, no crew or carrier would allow that. But it is remotely possible that the plane could have inadvertently gonne into some extremely turbulent air and suffered massive hail damage or a sudden structural faillure."
This kind of a good information, specially taking in mind that the plane crashed around 20 kms from the airport, so that was a mere few minutes after take-off and coincides with the information given by Douala Airport Control, that they lost contact shortly after take off~.
Regards


User currently offlineOPNLguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 24600 times:

Quoting CV990 (Reply 22):
This kind of a good information,

Not really. His speculation isn't better than anyone else's at this point...


User currently offlineOmoo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 24454 times:

Update:

Quote:


PRESS STATEMENT.

An update on the situation in Cameroon:

Released on 6 / 5 / 2007: 22:00hrs

Kenya Airways regrets to confirm that its flight KQ 507 from Douala to Nairobi has been located on a mangrove swamp, 20km South-East of Douala, on the planned flight path.

The aircraft was a Boeing 737 - 800. At this time, search and rescue operations are in progress and we have no confirmed information about survivors or any possible casualties. The search and rescue team which includes the KQ team is still at the accident scene.



25 CV990 : Hi! OPMLguy, don't you think what that pilot said is relevant? At this point all the information is good and of course speculative...until they analys
26 Lxlgu : According to News 24- pieces of wreckage found are no bigger than a car door Rescuers found a seat and body parts in the muddy crash area Rest in peac
27 Post contains links Brenintw : BBC is reporting that there are no survivors. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6631507.stm May the passengers RIP. [Edit for spelling error.][Edited
28 Post contains links Antskip : The Washington Post reports that the Cameroon's civil protection service claims there is no chance of survivors - the plane wreck is almost entirely
29 Brenintw : Right now, it's about 3 hours into the morning there (assuming sun-up was 6 am LT).
30 Antskip : Oops! You are quite right. (blush) Plenty of daylight there now! It's 93.36 am there now, and dawn was at 6.02 am, with dusk (it's quick) at 6.19 pm,
31 Philb : It didn't specifically occur to me at the time I posted but the scenario - heavy thunderstorms and shifting winds - would be similar What!!!! The his
32 OPNLguy : Not particularly. ..except that there's virtually no "information" out there... He could have just as easily said that a meteor or a piece of space j
33 CV990 : Hi! Well it looks that Cap.Patrick Smith even beeing a pilot is misleading some good people ( like me...)! Regards
34 GFFgold : Bear in mind that equatorial mangrove swamp is nothing like the soft peat bogs of northern lattitudes. Many mangrove trees are big and very, very toug
35 LTBEWR : Looking at the posts of our armchair investigators here, it is highly possible that a combination of factors may have contributed to this accident, mo
36 Post contains links and images EMA747 : Source: http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/news...e.asp?newsid=2185&newscategoryid=1 Sounds like survivours are very unlikely. If this report is accurat
37 EIRules : I know I am going to get totally flamed for asking this, and Im not saying it as an accusation just as something that has been running through my mind
38 A3 : I hope not............... The total loss of almost band new B737s raises questions , as you have mentioned there are issues concerning some parts of
39 Pilotaydin : you answered your own question in a way....i fly the 737 and there is nothing wrong with it whatsoever, the 737 is a short-medium haul aircraft, so i
40 EIRules : I understand that the 737 has far more cycles than say a 747, but it is compartive to say an A320 or 321 and they dont seem to have the same accident
41 CV990 : Hi! We have much more 737's than A320/A321!!! I was just thinking about KQ introducing the 738...KQ have quite a good record with 737's, flying the Cl
42 Post contains links OPNLguy : That remains to be seen (literally), should they discover multiple wreckage sites or not. When Valujet 592 went into the Everglades, this is what the
43 Post contains images Pilotaydin : remember the 737-100 + models came out way before airbus tried to even compete with that range of model, the airbus A320-100 onwards has been highly
44 CV990 : Hi Pilotaydin! Very, very interesting your explanation ( at least for me...) the way both 737's handle, thanks very much. By the way, flying with the
45 Post contains images Pilotaydin : hey there ive been to LIS several times but unfortunately we don't overnight, the approach is beautiful if you come to IST though always glad to get
46 CV990 : Hi! Dear friend....pitty...but next time you come let me know...I'll be in the runway heading and will take a picture of your 738 landing at LIS! Yes,
47 EMA747 : So what do you do to turn and descend etc? Is this also the case with the -700? I'm guessing it's not such a problem with the -600 as it's a lot smal
48 Jaysit : Is this any different for a 738 with winglets? Or does a 738 with or without winglets perform in a similar fashion in such an instance?
49 Pilotaydin : Well if you're turning you change the rudder pressure and that banks the plane over for you, you CAN add a LITTLE aileron but it's tricky..... the wi
50 StealthZ : Check out the stats of B737 built since 1988 and A320(18/19/21) and the facts are not all that complementary to the Airbus. Production roughly 3870/3
51 NA : Yes, but there is a big BUT: Of about 5300+ 737s 134 (more than 1 out of 40) were lost, out of 3000+ A320 family airplanes just 17 (1 out of 176)! So
52 CV990 : Hi! NA, you showed numbers and you did a wonderfull statistic exercise, so who am I to argue??? Numbers don't lie right? So I have to say that indeed
53 Hoya : Please correct me if I'm wrong, but this is only the 2nd fatal crash/hull loss of a 737NG, with the first being the GOL 738 inflight collision over B
54 787EWR : You probably should consider that there are over 6,000 737's flying around the world. I don't know the exact number of A-320, or A-319s, but I know t
55 EMA747 : This is not a very (at all!) scientific analysis but if you search the images on here it come out like this: Africa - A320 family = 216 B737 = 1484 S
56 Ncelhr : Very interesting. Do you mean to say that it is harder to fly a 738? And by this account, is a 738 more dangerous to fly?
57 Gr8Circle : They've just about located the crash site and not yet got the black box and CVR.....isn't it too early to start speculating on the performance of the
58 Andz : That's a dodgy statement, SAA have 11 319-100s. Not even remotely close to 216, or is that 216 photos?
59 Post contains links and images EMA747 : Very sad,but only conferms what we thought. This could be totally wrong but interesting no the less. If a plane was hit by lightning what would happe
60 Post contains links Asteriskceo : http://www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news_s.php?articleid=1143968213 Interesting article.
61 Irobertson : I was sure that modern aircraft are built to withstand lightning strikes, but still, there are varying intensities of lightning and surely the most po
62 Post contains images Alessandro : Heavy rain rule out multiple birdstrike? The impact with the nosedive tells the story that something went very wrong very fast...
63 JayinKitsap : Are these picture counts? Because if plane counts then South america has 133% of all 737's ordered. I think relative safety stats need to be compared
64 ATCGOD : These engines and airframes undergo massive, massive scrutiny before they're ever put into service. The engines have large blocks of ice shot into th
65 Post contains links Philb : Aircraft are built in such a way as they perform as a Faraday's cage. This means that, whilst lightning can disrupt communications, can even put holes
66 Pilotaydin : well nothing is so cut and dry, the airplane is only as safe as the two sometimes 3 guys who sit up front.... all im saying is, the NG takes time to
67 Irobertson : Another 737NG crash: Helios? Or was that not a NG? Do we even know what happened there yet? You'll still find a significant number of -200s operating
68 EMA747 : I suppose statistically it would be best to compare crashes involving all 737s built after the first A320s as then you are compareing planes of the sa
69 ATCGOD : Pilot error attributed to them ignoring the warning signals showing high cabin altitude. Can we find a 737 accident that wasn't attributed to pilot e
70 LH492 : I think that one was a 737-300 and if I am not mistaken, they had a problem with the cabin pressure which caused the pilots to lose consciousness. Tw
71 Prebennorholm : Adjusted numbers: Boeing celebrated delivery of the 5,000th 737 just over a year ago. Since then 200-250 more have been delivered, and hundreds of 25
72 Post contains links LH492 : The 737-200 of Aloha were the roof blew off was not a pilot error. The Thai Airways 737-200 which crashed into a hill after loosing both engines was
73 A3 : Unfortunately no survivors...
74 ATCGOD : How about any -300 or newer aircraft.
75 787EWR : I agree with your statement. Unfortunatley, the issue may lie with training. I is extremely unfair for me to say that these pilots were not well trai
76 PanHAM : I believe you mix up 2 separate accidents here. The floor collapse was on the TK DC10 shortly after take-off from Paris. This was caused by an improp
77 RIXrat : I have been mulling it over for the past few hours now and thought that I should reply to your post a few takes back. What you say is quite scary, es
78 Post contains images CFTOA : I believe you are right, I did a bit of research into it, and those are the only two hull losses involving Boeing's 737NG. The Helio's 737 was a -300
79 BuyantUkhaa : The rudder problems come to mind, but these were resolved a long time ago.
80 Dartland : Indeed, but I'll add to this that the reason that 734 crashed was due to pilot error. The captain turned off the wrong engine which resulted in no po
81 TheSonntag : While I certainly do not like this kind of "is A320 or 737 safer" stuff, I think it is fair to compare the safety rate of the A320s and 737NGs from th
82 RichM : I disagree. They only prove statistics against hull losses. I wouldn't say they are good safety statistics, as the possibility of pilot error clearly
83 Post contains links 787EWR : More Information http://www.airportbusiness.com/web/o...rvived-Kenya-Airways-Crash/1$11870
84 Prebennorholm : No, my intention was not to "mix up" two accidents, but rather to mention two accidents (and one very close call). The root cause was similar. The th
85 Zeke : I don't know about the 737 numbers, but looking at the 320 numbers, 5 out of the 17 were destroyed in fires on the ground (one during refuelling, 3 i
86 Bruce : Sticking with the flameout theory for a minute, because i realize that extreme amounts of water (rain) intake can drown an engine, aren't jets designe
87 787EWR : [quote=Bruce,reply=86]Sticking with the flameout theory for a minute, because i realize that extreme amounts of water (rain) intake can drown an engin
88 Post contains links Zeke : Very unlikely, have a look at http://www.geae.com/education/engines101/ , "Safety", "Video : Water Ingestion Test", the CFM 56 on those aircraft woul
89 EMA747 : Plus with someone saying a while back on this thread that these nasty weather conditions are fairly normal in this part of the world at this time of y
90 Spacecadet : The plane wouldn't nosedive into the ground just because both engines flameout on climb. In fact, this has happened several times over the years, the
91 LawnDart : Two quick comments... Additionally, the sidewalls just above the cabin floor had vents installed so that, should the baggage hold decompress, the cabi
92 Bruce : Well, I think it all does point to a complete loss of power in some way - control surfaces not active and able to stabilize the plane, and communicati
93 Mustang304 : Huh? If it was weather related, AFAIK- Normal procedures are to avoid Thunderstorms by 20 miles minimum. While aircraft are built tough, they aren't
94 Post contains images Pilotaydin : bingo, which is one of the reasons why people crash in the sim, the autorelight happens so fast, that sometimes you forget which engine failed becaus
95 EMA747 : I mean all the other bad weather. Obviously the pilots wouldn't have flown through a thunderstorm. Lightning strikes which have been mentioned in the
96 Philb : Well the accident statistics are full of aircraft that encountered weather beyond their design limits There isn't any radar in the area for them to h
97 EMA747 : Not intetionally. So if they did, why?
98 Pilotaydin : sometimes you have to fly through a T-Storm, you just try and go through the green and if need be yellow echoes in order to get out of it, making sure
99 Post contains links Philb : You need to read some accident reports. Try this one for starters: http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/GenPDF.asp?id=DCA99MA060&rpt=fi
100 Post contains images Comorin : CV990, OPNLguy, LAY OFF Patrick Smith! he's on my RU list as 'Aviateur' Patrick does a fascinating weekly column on Salon.com called "Ask the Pilot"
101 Aviateur : If you're familiar with my columns, you'll know that I routinely taken the Associated Press to task for its notoriously shoddy, distortion-laden avia
102 Post contains images OPNLguy : So? I could have the Teletubbies on my RU list, but I'd never suggest that someone else needs to agree with my assessment... How do you know I don't?
103 777STL : TWA Flight 800 was caused by a deficiency in design. Then there are incidents that are exasperated by the design of the aircraft, not attributable so
104 Ttailsteve : The Aloha incident was not an ACCIDENT. It was an INCIDENT which did not result in the death of ANY pax. (one crew member was reported missing and no
105 FlyingNanook : This most definitely was an accident, according to the NTSB, as the plane was substantially damaged (written off even) and one person died, both cond
106 Pygmalion : 737-800 has full manual reversion... in other words full flight control with no hydraulics. Just loss of engines or hydraulics would not cause loss of
107 Wjcandee : NASA has said point blank that fatal mainline US airline accidents are so rare and involve so many elements lining up in order for them to occur that
108 Saleya22R : The MD 80 flameout near Stockholm Sweden in 1991 occurred in daylight on a clear winter day. They had both time and visibility to fly the plane, to m
109 Post contains images Teme82 : Hey I got some quick questions. 1. How big thunder storms can be on that area? 2. Are they so big that you can't navigate agoud them? Thanks
110 Post contains links Saleya22R : Teme 82, It's near the equator where tropical thunderstorms are prevalent. The forecast for Douala showed thunderstorm activity for several days. I s
111 Teme82 : Thanks. It just makes me wonder why both engines would flame out, too much water from thunder storm? And why pilots weren't able to restart engines??
112 Jetfuel : I would be focusing on the crew and what was going on in the cockpit before trying to blame the aircraft/design Does anybody know the experience on ty
113 Post contains links Alessandro : I still wonder about birdstrikes, here´s one accident in Africa with a B737 crashed due to birdstrikes, http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.ph
114 Jetfuel : That 737 just didn't make it make to the runway in time, despite having some altitude. Funny, though other equatorial places like Singapore don't hav
115 Teme82 : They got better air traffic handling systems than Cameroon has. And weather services are totally in different level. I think that this accident is fo
116 Saleya22R : Obviously it's a possibility but I was also wondering about the time of the day and weather: Are birds flying around en masse in a thunderstorm in th
117 A390 : How about fuel contamination? Water in the fuel causing both engines to flame out and difficult to restart.
118 KL577 : Yes, safe aviation in Singapore being a combination of both advanced electronics and experienced ATC controllers. What still puzzles me is that the p
119 Post contains links Antskip : The Kenya Daily Nation has reported that the pilot's last words received by the control tower were "We are in trouble", a few moments before the crash
120 GFFgold : Confusion over time and sequence of events? Or has anyone considered the possibility that the plane may have been in the air for longer than we're as
121 Antskip : The control tower heard the pilots saying they were in trouble a few minutes after takeoff, and one would assume it was soon after that the plane wen
122 Wjcandee : Idiots. The NTSB is the gold standard of accident investigative agencies. If true, these people should be embarassed, apparently used to the kind of
123 LTBEWR : At least with the recovery of the 'black box', we may see some possible answers soon. Since this was such a new aircraft, I would assume it has the ab
124 Wjcandee : Well, the NTSB *is* the gold standard. Regardless, however, to suggest that it cannot be fair because Boeing is based here is lunacy. And to suggest t
125 787KQ : Blah, blah, blah. The argument about a neutral party, in this instance, the Canadians is one any good attorney would make. We all have our biases, ev
126 Marquis : See my earlier post. I have never doubted, that the attitude of the Kenyan authorities towards the European and US accident investigative agencies is
127 JoeCanuck : I'm curious...surely you're not suggestion that the Canadian authorities will conduct a substandard investigation compared to the Americans, are you?
128 Wjcandee : The only people who are being badmouthed -- besides me, for no reason -- are the European and American investigative agencies, who are, in essence, be
129 ChinaClipper40 : Oh, come on. You make it sound as if Canada were a third-world country. In fact, the Transportation Safety Board of Canada is one of the finest air a
130 Wjcandee : Dude. No matter how good the Canadian group is, they are no more free from influence than the NTSB. And I am sure that they would say so. What I obje
131 Post contains images Gr8Circle : Something tells me this thread is going to be locked very soon....
132 Irobertson : European Air Charter still flies the -200 in Europe. They keep cropping up on the photo database these days still painted in their former livery from
133 Wjcandee : The US *is* a "neutral nation" as pertains to the CVR and FDR decoding. They *can* be sure that the answers won't be skewed to protect Boeing. This i
134 Irobertson : Look, I agree with a lot of your points. Its just how you worded your initial post, calling the Kenyans idiots for not choosing the "gold standard" N
135 MEA-707 : I think you miss the point that even WHILE the NTSB is probably free from influence, they want to avoid the controversy which will no doubt start in
136 Post contains links OA260 : http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/africa/05/07/kenya.plane.ap/index.html Story Highlights• NEW: One of plane's two black boxes had been found, Camerooni
137 Katekebo : gravity? Very correct observation. Actually it's a smart move from Kenyan authorities to avoid politics getting involved.
138 Litz : I seriously doubt rudder problems ... if it truly lost power, it probably stalled during the attempt to glide back to the field. (IMHO, mind you ...
139 Mustang304 : It could happen with a single engine failure, where the aircraft got below Vmc--an airspeed too slow to maintain directional control with rudder and
140 OA260 : Thanks from what I read I thought they meant it literally nose dived which I have seen before on TV when the rudders lock in a certain position and h
141 Post contains links and images OPNLguy : Thanks for getting the thread back on-topic---I was begining to think that every aircraft accident in the last 50 years was going to be mentioned...
142 Katekebo : The reason for the AA DC-10 crash in Chicago was that, when the engine broke off, it severed hydraulic lines to the leading edge slats, and the slats
143 Post contains links Zeke : Incorrect, it was an accident. The engine problem that caused this was supposed to have been fixed, this aircraft had the latest standard CFM-56. htt
144 Post contains links Philb : Why is there a sizable majority here who have latched onto "power loss"? Whilst the engines will obviously be one of the first items to be checked to
145 OPNLguy : " target=_blank>http://aviation-safety.net/database/...116-0 After TACA, one of the changes was that the spinner/bullet on the engine was changed from
146 Post contains images Electech6299 : I would suspect that the advanced DFDR will have separate parameters for throttle position and throttle input to compare with the various engine perf
147 Post contains links OA260 : They have also not ruled out an explosion but I guess at this stage anything is possible. I guess we will know more once the Black box is examined. It
148 OPNLguy : Even though the CVR's cockpit area microphone is inside the cockpit, the CVR itself is in the tail end of the aircraft not the nose... In general ter
149 Electech6299 : Yes indeed...I was thinking about that after posting. edit: "disappeared"? Not from radar- it flew off radar at cruising altitude and the debris fiel
150 OPNLguy : They are on most aircraft--that's usually the end that suffers lesser impact forces.. IIRC, the CVR and DFDR in the 737 are at the aft end of the aft
151 Post contains links 787KQ : UPDATE The flight went down right after takeoff according to latest reports from Kenya, so it was not attempting to make its way back to the airport.
152 Electech6299 : Thanks. That's good news- the CVR should be accessible for recovery, then, since the DFDR was already found. No guarantees, of course...aircraft acci
153 Electech6299 : New scenario (currently running, in the press, but not yet confirmed): After a weather-related departure delay of an hour, the aircraft took off but
154 VivaGunners : Ok, so it seems the aircraft nose dove into the ground, which leads me to think about rudder/vertical stabilizer problems. Do you remember the AA587 c
155 OPNLguy : So, now it's 5.2 KM (3.2 miles..) If the media can't get something relatively simple like the distance from the airport correct 3-4 days post acciden
156 Pygmalion : Does anyone think that Windshear is a possibilty here? I doubt that there was local doppler radar for windshear warning at the airport. 5km is just ab
157 CV990 : Hi! Windshear could be a possibility, I was just thinking about the PAN AM 727 that crashed almost the same way has the KQ 738 at Memphis, the PAN AM
158 Electech6299 : If they had already delayed departure for an hour, why would they take off into severe weather? I can only think of 2 reasons: 1) Do Kenyan crew foll
159 Gatorman96 : If the plane did go down right shortly after take-off, could a severe episode of windshear down the plane? Or at least affect the pilots to overcompen
160 Post contains images OPNLguy : Just saw this in another article: "Dr Mutua also criticised media reports that the pilot of the ill-fated plane issued a distress statement before the
161 ChinaClipper40 : Pilotaydin - Thanks for your input. I always find your posts rational, clear, and noninflammatory. Plus, I always learn from them. But here's what I
162 EMA747 : Flame-out has been mentioned in a few media reports I've seen over the last few days. I think but I'm not 100% a statement from Boeing said that they
163 Post contains images Mke717spotter : And I had just gotten over the fact that modern comercial aircraft were designed to withstand the extreme weather and now this happens. How likely is
164 TTailSteve : Considering the millions and millions of passengers that fly in a year and the handful of crashes worldwide, I'd say not very likely.[Edited 2007-05-
165 AA54Heavy : I wouldn't call them idiots. Although the NTSB can be considered one of the best agencies in the world in this field, there is a little thing called
166 Post contains links Golftango : Is this the incident because it does not mention anything regarding pilot error? http://www.airdisaster.com/cgi-bin/v...9®=TC-JEP&airline=Turkish+Ai
167 Post contains links and images OPNLguy : Personally, I find airdisaster.com info a tad unreliable, as this example should demonstrate: "The aircraft crashed minutes after takeoff from Adana,
168 Pygmalion : The DFDR creates a digital file of both derived and raw data. I am sure the Canadians, once they retrieve the file will share a copy of that file with
169 Rwessel : Those numbers don't add up - 5.2km in 30s implies an average airspeed of nearly 347kts.
170 Post contains images Electech6299 : Well, that eliminates one of the differences between this incident and the PK-KKW. And adds yet another similarity- the complete lack of media unifor
171 Electech6299 : On landing I would agree, but with a full-power take-off it's not too far off. What is the typical climb-out speed of a lightly or moderately loaded
172 Rwessel : Assuming Cameroon uses the 250kts below 10kft rule, it would be 250kts. Otherwise somewhere close to 280kts. And remember that the 737 would likely h
173 Post contains images Alibo5NGN : This crash is in many ways similar to the Bellview crash of October 2005 which occurred outside Lagos and the ADC crash of December 2006 which occurre
174 Electech6299 : agreed
175 OPNLguy : Your choice, of course, but there's really no need to, since 757s and bigger are not immune to encounters either. You're bound to see more Ford Crown
176 JoeCanuck : Let's list all the actual information we have, so far, about the cause(s) of this terrible tragedy; - - - - - - - - - - - Let's list the possible caus
177 Philb : Don't you read previous posts before posting yourself? Check my posts on this and the previous thread See my reply to Pygmalion above. I've stated at
178 JoeCanuck : No. What I really meant was we don't have any factual information as to the actual cause or causes of the crash. Possible causes are, almost, infinite
179 Post contains links Antskip : Better information is available now. The crash was exactly 5.42 k from end of the runway, not 20 k. It had been airborne only about 30 seconds. http:
180 Rwessel : " target=_blank>http://www.eastandard.net/hm_news/ne...8364. Well, 5.42km instead of 5.2km makes the 30s estimate even more problematic. OTOH the arti
181 Philb : Then there are those of us who have made detailed sudies of aviation accidents over many years, have talked to accident investigators, cockpit crew a
182 Post contains images EMA747 : Some people's attitudes are coming into this too much. This is a discussion isn't it? If it was the facts it would only be a handful of posts long. Pe
183 Xtra1 : I read somewhere ( Flight International, latest issue) that the 737NG short-field version has a problem with the spoiler actuators. This could lead to
184 Philb : Where? Just how do you think airlines, manufacturers and the regulators work and interact? If you have "read it somewhere" and the story is factually
185 Post contains links EMA747 : Xtra1 is this what you are refering to? Taken from http://www.b737.org.uk/newsreports.htm Very interesting. As the KQ plane had come from Freetown it
186 Philb : That AD would have been sent to all operators worldwide - that's how the system works. Standard procedure would now be for Boeing to come up with a f
187 Xtra1 : EMA 747, thanks for that more descriptive article. Although the information (about 737 spoiler jams) I read previously was a short article from Flight
188 EMA747 : Do you mean having a quick look from above the wing from the gate? If they did that I can't really see them missing a set of spoilers sticking up. Is
189 Post contains images Electech6299 : I can only see this fitting if they tried to correct the roll with opposite rudder input, began oscillating, and lost control. The reports so far say
190 Post contains links OPNLguy : Can you recall where that was mentioned? Some interesting perspective here: http://www.heavenlybrickks.com/flora...The_Sounds_of_a_Useful_Silence.doc
191 Zone1 : I don't know if it has been posted here on A.net, and not to detract from the other people that died on the crash, but a US HIV specialist from Massac
192 Pilotaydin : then we shouldn't talk about anything, because when you watch the news, someone else is giving you what we call facts, something is only a FACT relat
193 Philb : Yes, I would be very surprised if airlines operating the short field performance version hadn't added that to the pre-flight checks At night, on the
194 Electech6299 : I seriously dispute that there would be "nothing left". Nobody thinks the plane climbed out for 3 miles, (what would that be, about 5000 feet?) then
195 Irobertson : Just something picky, but depending on this whole windshear theory, 250kts is *indicated* speed, am I right? True airspeed could have been a hell of
196 EMA747 : Its in the first paragraphy of the bit I posted in reply 185. Type Kenya crash or something similar into google hit images and you'll find quite a fe
197 David L : And can we add the possibility of spatial disorientation (if in IMC) while trying to recover from any/all of these scenarios?
198 OPNLguy : What I mean was does anyone know for sure that the Kenya -800 was a SFP model?
199 EMA747 : Ah I get you now. I read it over the weekend in a news article on google news. I can't remember what paper it was so it would take a bit of finding. I
200 Post contains links MarcoT : I don't know, but the serial number (35069, according to aviation-safety,net) apparently does not compare in the list of the affected serial numbers
201 Post contains links EMA747 : I've found the article. http://www.timesnews.co.ke/06may07/nwsstory/news1.html Here is the bit about it being a SFP version: That info is wrong actual
202 OPNLguy : I suspect that the article's author simply found anything/everything about the 737NG family and SFP improvments, but failed to notice the the SFP stu
203 Post contains links Zeke : The 30 seconds comment came from the Kenya Airways chief pilot James Ouma who said Kenyan investigators believe the jet crashed about 30 seconds afte
204 Jaysit : Ditto for the ValueJet crash in the Everglades. And that aircraft's foreward cargo hold was on fire, and it nosedived from a much higher altitude.
205 JoeCanuck : As far as I can tell, most investigators come to conclusions based on facts and try to avoid coming to conclusions based on suppositions and theories
206 Electech6299 : I won't, quite the opposite. My job is very similar in nature- conducting controlled experiments and using only hard scientific data to formulate con
207 Rwessel : At sea level IAS will be equal to true airspeed, modulo any calibration or system errors. It's at higher altitudes that true airspeed starts to signi
208 Pilotaydin : Even when they have the facts, such as air florida flight 90, they STILL can't put a finger on WHY the pilots did what they did....so there is guess
209 Philb : Even more dangerous is vertical windshear which is present in microbursts within their core but is also present in active CBs and can lift a large ai
210 XT6Wagon : Hmm, updraft causing massive rate of climb for a short time, they or the autothrottle back off the throttle a hell of alot... then bam the other side
211 Saleya22R : 1. How reliable is the METAR at Douala in the first place given that there is no radar service? Are only visual observations used? For example METAR a
212 Philb : Depends on whiere the wind reading was taken and when. An airfield can have different wind speeds and directions over different parts of the field. E
213 PYP757 : I cannot understand why some people on A.net always object to speculating on the causes of accidents. Nobody forces them to read the threads that app
214 Zeke : A metar is only for Wx a few miles about an airport, the majority of metars do not use any form of radar data to generate the observations.
215 Electech6299 : The failure described in the AD (AD 2007-06-51) is for a single actuator to be jammed in the deployed position, causing the single spoiler panel (or
216 David L : Agreed but I confess I do get a bit irritated when someone becomes fixated on a single cause in spite of a lack of evidence or the presence of more e
217 Post contains links Wjcandee : FWIW, this seems to be the latest, from AP (fair use excerpt): http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...wreckage_070510/20070510?hub=World "Investigator
218 Zeke : The metars from 1600 to 0200 that day indicated the highest recorded wind was 5 kt, at the time of the accident nil wind was reported in the metar. I
219 Philb : As stated before, the METARS only show the wind at the point of measurement. They are a GUIDE which, in normal conditions do a job. See my post #212
220 Post contains links Wjcandee : I hesitated to start a new thread on this, but I commend to you all the following AP article, which is a model of clarity, non-hype and accuracy for t
221 Zeke : The information you posted is very basic, a gust front associated with a thunderstorm would have shown up on a metar over that period of time, I have
222 OPNLguy : I concur--a pretty good article. One wishes that more aviation articles could be as such... Based on what was mentioned in the article, it sounds lik
223 Post contains links Wjcandee : I concur. Obviously, it's important for the investigators and, to some extent, the media to shine a light on all possibilities, but the smart money h
224 BuyantUkhaa : Well said....
225 OPNLguy : " target=_blank>http://www.pilotfriend.com/disasters...9.htm This accident is also one of many covered in Dr. Fujita's "The Microburst" that came out
226 Electech6299 : I agree, good article, but it clears up quite a bit of the speculation we have been wondering about on this thread. That suggests that our other refe
227 Philb : Obvoiusly you are far more experienced than the Australian Govt Dept of Meteorology - or didn't you bother to download and read the PDF? I'm sure the
228 Zeke : If you learned something from that great, but it is still at a very basic level, all of that is standard ATPL knowledge. The difference naturally as
229 Philb : I learnt most of the thunderstorm basics in the 1960s and have been following the growth in knowledge ever since. I posted the link to help those on
230 Zeke : Nope, you cannot seem to be able to read a metar, those reading are over a 10 hour period (1700-0300 local on the 5th), they are not in minutes, I ha
231 Comorin : Dumb question - much has been made here of modern airliners having weather radar, but how effective is it when sitting on the runway? Thanks.
232 Pilotaydin : it's very very effective actually some of them function once you advance the throttles to mid position, otherwise it would pick up vortexes left and
233 HAWK21M : Quite effective with Tilt. regds MEL
234 Philb : Fair point, misread the times as I had a much shorter time scale in my head as I'd been reading up on the Pan American crash where there is a list of
235 Post contains links Srbmod : With this thread getting well past 200 posts, it's being locked (mainly for the benefit of those following the thread on slower connections) and pleas
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