Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Delta Stock Solid Investment?  
User currently offlineJFK787NYC From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 812 posts, RR: 2
Posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 2864 times:

Can someone please advise if they believe it is worth investing into DAL.

There stock is at around $19 per share today.

But, all of there competitors are around or over $40 a share.

36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineTVNWZ From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 2391 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 2837 times:

Historically, airline stocks have been a very bad long-term investment.

User currently offlineGemini573 From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 146 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2809 times:

DAL at that price seems like a good buy to me.

If there is one airline stock that I would invest long term, it would be LAN airlines; symbol LFL. It traded at over 80.00 a share yesterday. It has retreated slightly today. I'm very bullish on this stock.

[Edited 2007-05-10 16:49:58]

User currently offlineATLAaron From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 1023 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2803 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Remember that per share price means NOTHING. You need to multiply that by the number of shares outstanding and you get the market capitalization. Which is also listed on everything you would look at such as Yahoo finance. Compare the market caps of the various airlines and then decide if you think Delta is a good investment.

Personally, I intend to buy some of their newly listed stock but not until it finds a bottom. Wait till it trends back up for a day or two, at least that is what I am doing. Oh and the poster above is correct, airline stocks are not a long-term investment. So you need to know when to get out.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6608 posts, RR: 24
Reply 4, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2803 times:

As a short-term speculative purchase, I think DL's stock might be worth buying. Right now, the stock's price is being dragged down a bit by worries that domestic demand is softening and fuel prices are rising. However, given DL's low-cost structure (relative to the industry) and shrinking domestic footprint, you might eventually see a nice run-up in price. This run-up probably won't start until DL reports some financials that are better than the industry (which could happen in July when 2nd quarter numbers come out).

For a long-term investment, I would say DL's stock (like most airlines) is a bad buy. Weakening domestic demand and rising fuel prices are bad enough news, but an eventual downturn in the economy will tank DL's stock (as well as most other airlines).


User currently offlineJFK787NYC From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 812 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2799 times:

LAN is so expensive because they only have 68 million shares floated on the stock market.

where DELTA has 193.8 million


Does anyone know what was the profit for LAN last year?


User currently offlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5441 posts, RR: 7
Reply 6, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2743 times:

There is bearish sentiment that Delta stock will fall to around $15 - at which point it might be a buy.


I love long German words like 'Freundschaftsbezeigungen'.
User currently offlineInnocuousFox From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2805 posts, RR: 14
Reply 7, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2725 times:

I day-trade airline stocks. I would wait for a bit and see where it bottoms out. Right now, the best bets are CAL and AMR (using their ticker symbols). The trick with airline stocks is the volitility. You can make a decent amount of money just riding the waves every few days. (Trailing stops work wonders!)


Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
User currently offlineAADC10 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2092 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2700 times:

I do not know what your definition of a "solid" investment is but that is hard to apply to any airline, much less one that just emerged from Ch. 11. Another terrorist airline attack could send several airlines to Ch. 7 within days. Actually DL may be risker than other post Ch. 11. airlines like UA or US because of their aggressive expansion. If the economy slumps sharply, then DL will end up begging someone to buy them.

User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4079 posts, RR: 11
Reply 9, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2680 times:

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 8):
I do not know what your definition of a "solid" investment is but that is hard to apply to any airline, much less one that just emerged from Ch. 11. Another terrorist airline attack could send several airlines to Ch. 7 within days. Actually DL may be risker than other post Ch. 11. airlines like UA or US because of their aggressive expansion. If the economy slumps sharply, then DL will end up begging someone to buy them.

Since 2000, airline stocks have been highly volatile. Even WN is trading at only about $14-18 per share over the last year. Still further, even US has tanked considerably since the first of the year, losing 30-40% of its value. That said, I don't think DL is any riskier than UA, US, AA or CO.  twocents 



DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently offlinePanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4911 posts, RR: 25
Reply 10, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2680 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 6):
There is bearish sentiment that Delta stock will fall to around $15

Target prices so far:
Prudential: $14
UBS: $17
Goldman: $25
Morgan Stanley: $27-29

which basically tells you nothing...


User currently offlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5441 posts, RR: 7
Reply 11, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 2614 times:

Quoting Panamair (Reply 10):
which basically tells you nothing...

...especially without any timing indicated. The former creditors who are anxious to get some cash out of their gobs of new stock will keep pressure on prices for a time while the stock passes into the hands of longer-term holders. So I believe the stock will dip and then recover at a pace dictated by the company's performance. It's a tempting short at the moment.



I love long German words like 'Freundschaftsbezeigungen'.
User currently offlineCV880 From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 1132 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 2588 times:

Quoting JFK787NYC (Reply 5):
where DELTA has 193.8 million

According to Marketwatch, float is 240M, WSJ, about 235M. There are also restricted shares issued to management, which can't be traded and also creditor shares in litigation.


User currently offlineSean-SAN- From United States of America, joined Aug 2002, 770 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 2573 times:

Currently DAL has a market cap almost 50% higher than AA... So the stock price doesn't mean anything. I agree, the stock will likely go lower. Too bad I can't buy put options on it yet.

User currently offlineCuriousFlyer From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 694 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2559 times:

Airlines are very speculative, I certainly would not invest in DL either. The next terrorist event will send the weaker ones back into bankruptcy, DL/UA/NW are the most fragile. Your shares could lose 50% in a day. Not a risk I'd take.

User currently offlineInnocuousFox From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2805 posts, RR: 14
Reply 15, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2530 times:

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 11):
...especially without any timing indicated.

Usually those are 1-year price targets.

BTW, you non-traders need to get over the actual dollar amount of stock prices. I stock price could get up to $100, do a 2:1 split and be $50 the next morning - and yet the company is the same. Always view stock prices with regards to the following ONLY:


  • Percent changes over time to see the relative motion
  • Local or global highs and lows to see what investor sentiment is
  • When comparing stocks, use PE ratios, not prices.



Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
User currently offlineCV880 From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 1132 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 2483 times:

AP
Delta Air Lines Exec VP Sells Shares
Thursday May 10, 11:58 am ET
Delta Air Lines Exec Vice President, Sales & Marketing Lee A. Macenczak Sells 9,349 Shares

NEW YORK (AP) -- An executive vice president of air carrier Delta Air Lines Inc. sold 9,349 shares of common stock, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

In a Form 4 filed with the SEC Wednesday, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing Lee A. Macenczak reported he sold the shares Tuesday for $19.39 to $19.83 apiece.

Insiders file Form 4s with the SEC to report transactions in their companies' shares. Open market purchases and sales must be reported within two business days of the transaction.

Delta is based in Atlanta, Ga.


User currently offlineJetdeltamsy From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 2987 posts, RR: 8
Reply 17, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 2457 times:

I think anyone, rich or poor, who invests a nickel in the airline industry is a fool.

The business has not been profitable since it was created. There have been profitable cycles, but unless you know when to get out, you lose every time.

The industry is faced with extremely urgent uncertainties...namely fuel supplies and price. If fuel were suddenly to become in short supply or to spike dramatically in price, it would bankrupt and probably shut down almost every non-state supported airline out there. And I think something like this is quite likely in the cards...probably within the next 5 years.

So my advice is if you simply have to invest in the industry, do so only with money you can afford to lose. If you make money, you'll be pleasantly surprised.



Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
User currently offlineEMBQA From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 9364 posts, RR: 11
Reply 18, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 2414 times:

Quoting JFK787NYC (Thread starter):
Can someone please advise if they believe it is worth investing into DAL

As said above, airlines are......as a whole....bad investments.

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 9):
Even WN is trading at only about $14-18 per share over the last year.

Southwest rarely trades above that and is pretty much the base line for them. I really don't think they have ever broken $40



"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
User currently offlineJustloveplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1057 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 2413 times:

Quoting Sean-SAN- (Reply 13):
Currently DAL has a market cap almost 50% higher than AA... So the stock price doesn't mean anything. I agree, the stock will likely go lower. Too bad I can't buy put options on it yet.

According to Yahoo, DAL market cap today is 3.9 Billion and AMR is 6.4 billion. The 11 billion market cap came from estimates by DL management what the company would be worth post BK. Still not there.


User currently offlineInnocuousFox From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2805 posts, RR: 14
Reply 20, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 2373 times:

Quoting Jetdeltamsy (Reply 17):
I think anyone, rich or poor, who invests a nickel in the airline industry is a fool.

[snip]

So my advice is if you simply have to invest in the industry, do so only with money you can afford to lose. If you make money, you'll be pleasantly surprised.

I have been making quite a bit of money in the airlines. Just know where to be when. It beats the hell outta buy-and-wait on a nice stable blue chip stock.

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 18):
Southwest rarely trades above that and is pretty much the base line for them. I really don't think they have ever broken $40

Again with the dollar amounts! Sheesh, people. Share price means NOTHING without a frame of reference. How many times have they split?

[list:1]
  • August, 1990: 1.5:1
  • July, 1992 2:1
  • July, 1993 3:2
  • November, 1997: 3:2
  • August, 1998 3:2
  • July, 1999 3:2
  • February, 2001: 3:2


    So... They are at ~ $14 today. Let's run those splits backwards to see what the share price would have been without them...

    $22.50
    $33.75
    $50.63
    $75.94
    $119.91
    $227.81
    $341.72 <- This is what the price would be if they had not split at all since 1990!

    The point is that they were splitting the stock because they WANTED to keep the price in the range of the teens to 20s. That is a common strategy to make a stock more accessible to the masses. In the days where almost every trade is an "odd lot" trade (not 100 shares), this is not as important.

    Again, stop posting dollars and saying it is good or bad. What it IS is ignorance of how the market works. Now THAT is dangerous.



  • Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
    User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
    Reply 21, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 2373 times:

    Quoting JFK787NYC (Thread starter):
    Can someone please advise if they believe it is worth investing into DAL.

    There stock is at around $19 per share today.

    But, all of there competitors are around or over $40 a share.

    No. I quote Bob Crandall:

    "I would never let my employees invest in Airlines. It's not a good business."


    User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4015 posts, RR: 13
    Reply 22, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 2356 times:

    Quoting InnocuousFox (Reply 7):
    I day-trade airline stocks. I would wait for a bit and see where it bottoms out.



    Quoting InnocuousFox (Reply 20):
    What it IS is ignorance of how the market works. Now THAT is dangerous.

    I am somewhat surprised that the same poster wrote these two statements. If you can tell when "it bottoms out", let me know, I will pay you millions for the information.

    As for Delta, as pointed out, airlines are not usually good investments in the long term, which does not preclude them of being good short term investments. But the market cap of Delta is well above other airlines. If I had any DAL stock right now, I would be selling and speculating on a mix of Jet Blue and Continental.



    Stop pop up ads
    User currently offlineVega From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 23, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 2324 times:

    Let's see now, DAL achieved a price of $22.79 on it's first trading day after emerging from BK and has since dropped to $19.70 - that's about a 14% loss in just 2 weeks. Although, the airline industry as a whole has essentially done the same, typically the investment community supports an emergent company, especially one which has been as vocal about it's future prospects as DL. Also, note that the DL CEO (Grinstein) reached deep into his pockets on 5/3/07 and bought a whole 1000 shares - and that is after he Disposed of 28K shares on 4/30/07 as the price was sinking ! Not a lot of confidence DL is on a path to a profitable future from my perspective.

    User currently offlineInnocuousFox From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2805 posts, RR: 14
    Reply 24, posted (7 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 2321 times:

    Quoting Incitatus (Reply 22):
    If you can tell when "it bottoms out", let me know, I will pay you millions for the information.

    I wrote a bit too quickly without qualification. I meant after these first few days of selling off. In a week or so, we will see it stabalize a little bit - or as much as can be expected from an airline.  sarcasm 

    Quoting Incitatus (Reply 22):
    I would be selling and speculating on a mix of Jet Blue and Continental.

    Yeah, I've been making my money on AMR and Continental. JetBlue and AirTran have been good on and off but I don't want to spread too thin.

    USAir was cool when it came out of bankruptcy - trippled in a year. United was not as hot and is still struggling.



    Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
    25 Post contains links Panamair : The stock's lackluster performance since 4/30/07 has more to do with the fact that creditors who have been given stock and who have not seen any mone
    26 Post contains images Dc10hound : I think it was Warren Buffet that said something along the lines of "the best thing that could happen for airline investors is that the Wright brothe
    27 Post contains links CV880 : http://aviation.beloblog.com/archive...07/05/delta_back_near_the_top.html From the Dallas Morning news.....actual issued shares are 400M, so at today
    28 Gemini573 : Don't know what it was for last year. I can say this. As long as I've owned this stock, they have recorded double digit record passenger and cargo fi
    29 Justapassenger : I have done reasonably well investing in airline stocks and I am starting to look at Delta. In my opinion, the success of Delta as an airline and as a
    30 Post contains links CV880 : Shall we change the name to PBGC Airways? http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...%2DE957D251BDCB%7D&dist=siteid=rss
    31 CupraIbiza : The posters question was SOLID investment. The answer is clearly a NO. If you want a SOLID investment look outside the airline industry. My perosnal c
    32 InnocuousFox : I made a ton on Arch and Peabody Coal a couple of years back. Not so much now. Railroads are doing well at the moment. Also, I'm in FedEx and UPS. The
    33 MasseyBrown : For the Delta fans, a good company doesn't mean a good stock and a good stock doesn't mean a good company - in the short run, anyway. FWIW, however, D
    34 InnocuousFox : Yeah, but the airline index was down as well. You need to view it compared to the rest of the airline industry on any given time period.
    35 Dallasnewark : You should never look at the stock price, don't fall into the "Cheap Stock" pitfall. Look at shares outstanding, that would give you a better measure
    36 Post contains images MasseyBrown : OK. In the past 5 days (about how long the new DAL has traded) the airline index XAL is down 3% and DAL is down 9%. DAL is now worth about 25% less t
    Top Of Page
    Forum Index

    This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

    Printer friendly format

    Similar topics:More similar topics...
    What's Up With Delta's Stock? posted Fri Sep 15 2006 17:53:54 by Panamair
    Delta Stock posted Fri Sep 16 2005 00:51:09 by Roger136913
    Delta Stock Plunges Due To Bankruptcy Fears posted Tue Aug 9 2005 18:35:16 by TWFirst
    Whats Going On With Delta Today- Stock Down 25% posted Fri Feb 16 2007 17:34:36 by Nycfuturepilot
    Delta Airlines Stock (Dalrq.pk) posted Wed Jan 4 2006 08:01:31 by Bucks918
    Delta Announce Major Growth & Investment At JFK posted Wed Jan 28 2004 12:28:15 by SunValley
    Airline Stock Investment? posted Mon Oct 21 2002 03:55:06 by Hamfist
    PTVs In Delta 767-300 Or 737-800 Yet? posted Thu May 10 2007 15:47:51 by ATLflyer
    Delta 757 At LGW? posted Wed May 9 2007 23:56:49 by Mbm3
    Delta Flies The 787 On June 3! posted Wed May 9 2007 02:18:54 by Deltadude