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Midwest/AirTran.. Any Guesses?  
User currently offlineN917me From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 730 posts, RR: 1
Posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 3759 times:

Well, tomorrow is the 16th and the deadline to tender shares. Joe Leonard has said numerous times that this is the final offer for YX. YX stock closed up and has been up all week, meanwhile FL stock has stayed the same and/declined. So, with that being said, I think FL will extend their offer by 30 days .. again!

What is anyone elses take.

Not looking to start a FL vs YX thread, as we all know how heated they get.

56 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRyanrap1 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 196 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 3748 times:

I THINK Midwest will definetly REJECT THE DEAL!

User currently offlineSideflare75 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 613 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 3700 times:

Quoting Ryanrap1 (Reply 1):
I THINK Midwest will definetly REJECT THE DEAL!

They already did.

I'll say the deal gets extended until June 21st and they have 21% tendered.


User currently offlineKnope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2978 posts, RR: 30
Reply 3, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 3699 times:

An extension seems likely so that if/when FL gets their MEH-board-candidates elected that there is an offer on the table. That's of course not a done deal, but the meeting is about a month out.

What does seem odd to me is that in the past the offers were extended 1-2 days ahead of expiration, and today FL was silent. The only word out of them todway was their $29 fare sale for the month of June. Several markets, including MDW-ATL, for $29 if you hit the right flights.


User currently offlineKnope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2978 posts, RR: 30
Reply 4, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 3676 times:

Thinking about it sooner, here's what I suspect will happen:

--FL will let their offer expire

--The MEH stock will drop becuase the offer has inflated it

--FL is banking the stock will drop a lot

--Shortly before the annual meeting FL will swoop in with an offer higher than MEH stock is at that point

--No matter if MEH stock drops 5% or 35%, FL will hoot and holler for shareholders to get out while they can


User currently offlineN911YX From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 3582 times:

Shareholders (not short-term speculators) have already voted with their shares. It appears to me that the tally is somewhat scant in the favor of Air Tran. Scant is a polite term for there's egg all over your face sir. Now, can we just all get along and resume the program already in progress?

User currently offline2175301 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1075 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 3579 times:

I suspect the answer will be no, no, and no. No matter how many shares are tendered or the offered price.

A little known fact is that the board is responsible to ensure that all the "Stakeholders" interest are protected. This is much more involved than just insuring that the Shareholders interest are protected or met. The board of directors must consider the impact on the employees and customers of Midwest Airline.

I do not know how unique this legal requirement is; but Midwest Airlines is incorporated in Wisconsin where such protection can be invoked - and the Midwest Articles of Incorporation direct that the Stakeholders be considered.

Here is a link to an article that explains a bit about this.

http://iblsjournal.typepad.com/illin...w_soc/2007/02/freshlybaked_co.html

Should AirTran succeed in getting one of their chosen members elected to the Midwest Board - then that person is required to ensure that the Stakeholder interest are considered (and not just the Shareholders). Given the staggered terms of board members it would also take a number of years for a majority of board members to be replaced.

In my opinion - Midwest has built a nice little niche business based on business class travel in the Midwest US. It may never be hugely prosperous - but it is steady and they are doing no worse than many airlines (and better than some). The customer base is very different than Air-Tran - and I doubt they will ever mix to any degree.

Surveys produced last week indicate that if Air-Tran does acquire Midwest that a good chunk of the current customers would not consider staying - and would leave (and links to those surveys were previously posted on another thread).

Those customers must be considered as Stakeholders of the company. How does this merger protect their rights?

Should Air-Tran get enough shares tendered or purchases enough - the Midwest Board will almost certainly activate the "Poison Pill" provision which would significantly dilute those shares to minimal value. Every article I have read indicates that if the Poison Pill provision is activated that Air-Tran will have no chance.

In my opinion their only real chance is if they can get a super-majority of shares tendered - and I don't think that will happen.

Perry (New here but have been following the forum for a couple of weeks).


User currently offlineSkyexRamper From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3457 times:

On other YX thought...it's most likely a go for all 25 SkyWest CRJs by the end of the year.

User currently offlineMke717spotter From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 2461 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3441 times:

Wouldn't it make sense that if most shareholders aren't tendering their shares that most of them would vote against the three people FL has nominated for the YX board? Or is that not how it works?

Quoting SkyexRamper (Reply 7):
it's most likely a go for all 25 SkyWest CRJs by the end of the year.

That's good to hear. Its been a while now since YX has announced anything new so hopefully something is in the works.



Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
User currently offlineSkyexRamper From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 3233 times:

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 8):
Wouldn't it make sense that if most shareholders aren't tendering their shares that most of them would vote against the three people FL has nominated for the YX board? Or is that not how it works?

Heartland Advisors sold off a huge chunk of Midwest stock. Over the course of a year, April 06-April 07, they went from 1.2 Million shares down to 592,100 as of the end of April 2007.


User currently offlineAirTran737 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3705 posts, RR: 12
Reply 10, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 3216 times:
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Quoting N917me (Thread starter):
What is anyone elses take

I think that FL will let the offer expire, and walk away. When YX stock takes a dump, FL will say I told you so, and try to buy in again at a lesser value. I sold my YX shares, so I could really give a crap what happens. If the merger goes through it will just add more places that I can non-rev to, and will make commuting much easier.



Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever
User currently offlineCorsair2 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 248 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 3112 times:

What is AirTran's plan B if the takeover for Midwest never happens? Is there still a chance that they could dump their 737 orders? Up to this point they have put all their eggs in one basket.


"We have clearance Clarence. Roger, Roger. What's our vector Victor?"
User currently offlineDeltaDAWG From United States of America, joined May 2006, 781 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3102 times:

Quoting Corsair2 (Reply 11):
Is there still a chance that they could dump their 737 orders? Up to this point they have put all their eggs in one basket.

Why would they dump their orders? They have delayed a few - but even the ones delayed were only until the next year. FL is expanding at points that make sense and are deemed to be profitable such as the new round of LAS routes. The loss of the YX deal won't mean that FL won't keep expanding it just means that they won't expand as fast and have routes to put thenew 73G's on right away .



GO Dawgs, Sic' em, woof woof woof
User currently offlineAIRTRAN737700 From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 23 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3078 times:

First off, let me just say I hope this MERGER happens. If it doesn't I bet that we will see a whole bunch of new routes for airtran in MKE. If Airtran was willing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a Midwest merger, (and it does't happen) I think they will not think twice about loosing a couple of million dollars in a short term loss to flood the MKE market and hurt Midwest. Just think, if midwest goes belly up in 2 years because of an "increse" in competition there is going to be a fairly large fleet of 717's and a big market gap in MKE for the taking.

LET THE WAR BEGIN


User currently offlineSkyexRamper From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3064 times:

Quoting AIRTRAN737700 (Reply 13):
Just think, if midwest goes belly up in 2 years because of an "increse" in competition there is going to be a fairly large fleet of 717's and a big market gap in MKE for the taking.

How does will FL successfully put a dent into Midwest if they only have 2 gates here in MKE and at times it seems like only enough people to run 1 gate at a time. With the weather yesterday they were running close on a few flights, one would be just out the gate as the other was coming off the runway. Not to mention, if NWA couldn't bring down Midwest, well then FL has no chance.


User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3052 times:

The offer will be rejected and FL will pummel Midwest in MCI and MWK with more and more flights, with all of those bright, shiny new 737's.


One Nation Under God
User currently offlineN917ME From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 730 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3043 times:

Quoting AIRTRAN737700 (Reply 13):
First off, let me just say I hope this MERGER happens. If it doesn't I bet that we will see a whole bunch of new routes for airtran in MKE. If Airtran was willing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a Midwest merger, (and it does't happen) I think they will not think twice about loosing a couple of million dollars in a short term loss to flood the MKE market and hurt Midwest. Just think, if midwest goes belly up in 2 years because of an "increse" in competition there is going to be a fairly large fleet of 717's and a big market gap in MKE for the taking.

LET THE WAR BEGIN

As I said before, I really don't want to start a YX/

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 15):
The offer will be rejected and FL will pummel Midwest in MCI and MWK with more and more flights, with all of those bright, shiny new 737's.

Please see Skyexrampers response above.... If NW has tried numerous times to bring YX down and has failed each time, what makes FL think they will be successful?


User currently offlineAirtran737700 From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 23 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 3005 times:

N917ME & SKYEXRAMPERS

I do agree that Northwest did try to put the nails in Midwest's coffin, but Airtran is very different from Northwest. Airtran has a great route structure, new planes, low operating cost, should I continue? OK, I will Airtran has a managemnt that wants to see this merger happen, and if it doesn't I don't think they will think twice about putting nails in Midwest's coffin. Airtran has gained alot of press in the MKE and MCI areas (I admit, good and bad), but many people that did not know the airtran name before the merger, now know the Airtran name. MKE loads are great, and summer hasn't even started yet.


BREAK OUT THE TEAL AND WHITE AIRCRAFT PAINT....THERE IS A WHOLE LOT OF 717'S THAT ARE GOING TO NEED A NEW PAINT JOB.


User currently offlineAirTran737 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3705 posts, RR: 12
Reply 18, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 3001 times:
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Quoting Airtran737700 (Reply 17):
BREAK OUT THE TEAL AND WHITE AIRCRAFT PAINT....THERE IS A WHOLE LOT OF 717'S THAT ARE GOING TO NEED A NEW PAINT JOB.

You're way off, and quite arrogant. YX has rejected the buyout, and AirTran will announce their intentions tomorrow.



Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever
User currently offlineQuickmover From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2494 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 2986 times:

If they have a big enough portion of the stock to ensure electing the FL directors, I hope they sit down and iron out a deal. It's a shame not being able to take advantage of peak season demand, while they are tearing each other down in the press.

If the deal is inevitable, get on with it.


User currently offlineMainland From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 309 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 2964 times:

If there's no word from AirTran later today that does not mean they've let the tender lapse and expire. AirTran has until 9am tomorrow to announce any extension. I think AirTran will take as much time as they can and make an announcement early tomorrow, but we shall see.

Also, AirTran's appeal regarding the shareholder list is set to be heard today. (Actually, as I'm typing this it seems) Might see a PR about this along with any action on the tender offer.

http://www.courts.state.ny.us/courts...alendar/07calendars/June/may16.pdf



You don't need a passport to know what state you're in...
User currently offlineJibblets From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 41 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2896 times:

Quoting AIRTRAN737700 (Reply 13):
If Airtran was willing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a Midwest merger

Except that AirTran's offer is almost entirely funded by Midwest's cash and AAI stock. AirTran is not proposing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars of its own money. It prefers to spend Midwest's cash and dilute the value of its stockholders shares in the company.


User currently offlineSkyexRamper From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2860 times:

Quoting Airtran737700 (Reply 17):
but Airtran is very different from Northwest. Airtran has a great route structure, new planes, low operating cost, should I continue?

mmmm...what, that all 99% of FL destinations you have to connect through ATL. Where as NWA has multiple daily flights to MSP, DTW and MEM. Also many of NWA's planes are owned out right, especially their DC-9s. So please do continue.

Quoting Airtran737700 (Reply 17):
MKE loads are great, and summer hasn't even started yet.

I'm sure the loads are good, because well, direct flights to MKE are less than a dozen per day. Where as Midwest flights have been very full or sold out for the last few weeks and they run MANY flights direct to MKE daily!

Quoting AirTran737 (Reply 18):
You're way off, and quite arrogant.

        

Old Man Timmy is the only one who will attempt to run Midwest into the ground over the next 10 years.

[Edited 2007-05-16 22:11:19]

User currently offlineNorthwestEWR From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 468 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2837 times:

Quoting SkyexRamper (Reply 22):
I'm sure the loads are good, because well, direct flights to MKE are less than a dozen per day. Where as Midwest flights have been very full or sold out for the last few weeks and they run MANY flights direct to MKE daily!

You're not kidding about them being full ! I could barely get a seat at the end of May and had to pay quite a premium to fly YX over CO.



ARJ 319 320 333 717 733 735 73G 738 739 742 752 753 762 772 CRJ CR9 ER3 ERJ FRJ J31 J41 D9S D94 D95 M81 M82 M88
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23203 posts, RR: 20
Reply 24, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 2787 times:

Quoting Airtran737700 (Reply 17):
Airtran has a great route structure, new planes, low operating cost, should I continue?

An interesting point. Though NW has a much higher CASM than FL, NW also enjoys a greater RASM premium over CASM than does FL; NW's RASM in calendar 2006 was $0.92 higher than CASM and FL's was only $0.26. Bear in mind too that NW flies more ASMs than does FL (about 2.5 times as many), so the same premium would put more cash in the bank for NW.

I'm also not sure how you can assert that FL has a great route structure in the context of this argument. NW hit all the major business markets, and quite a few small ones like STL as well. And yet they failed. Why sould FL be different?



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
25 JBo : Chalk me up for being in favor of this going away. No one knows for sure what will become of YX in the future. They're certainly looking to grow, and
26 N911YX : Air Tran doesn't need Midwest to establish itself in MKE or MCI. With all of the on-hold 73s Air Tran could build itself a nice hub operation in eithe
27 2175301 : "Quoting AIRTRAN737700 (Reply 13): Just think, if midwest goes belly up in 2 years because of an "increse" in competition there is going to be a fairl
28 Quickmover : 57% This Just Off The Wire From WSJ... AirTran Bid Wins Key Support By Paulo Prada Word Count: 313 | Companies Featured in This Article: AirTran Holdi
29 Jibblets : If true, it's not particularly good news for Midwest. But it's also far from the end of the road. The BoD has yet to disarm the poison pill and even 1
30 Longhaulheavy : At this point, holding off the bid starts to become risky for YX. If they keep the poison pill in place and successfully thwart Airtran, they'll have
31 Cubsrule : While I (obviously) haven't seen the breakdown of the tendered shares, most of the local institutional investors would not engage in this sort of beh
32 Mke717spotter : So basically with the poison pill in effect, we'll see YX flying for atleast another year correct?
33 MPDPilot : I just want to reiderate what the others have said on this matter. NW has tried to offer a lot in MKE and failed. Yes FL is a different company with
34 Cubsrule : While it's a terribly unscientific way to study the issue, there are always a fair number of IL plates in the parking garage at MKE. I'm about equidi
35 Mainland : Maybe. Midwest could still come to the negotiating table. However, until the poison pill is lifted and other conditions waived, Midwest won't be goin
36 MPDPilot : well I am not a scientist. I also didn't say anything about it never happening but I would have to say that of all the people I know in both states t
37 N917ME : At least 3 years. (WI anti-takeover law)
38 Knope2001 : As I pointed out once before regarding AirTran's belief they can gani a great deal of additional traffic from northern Illinois, just look at MKE-BWI.
39 Longhaulheavy : Knope2001, that's a good analysis. Frankly, I think MKE has done pretty much all that it can do to get northern Illinois travelers. There is a steady
40 Knope2001 : It certainly is a continued and gradually increasing benefit to MKE to have affluent Lake County continue to grow and creep northward into Kenosha Cou
41 Cubsrule : In my experience (as someone who lives a mile north of PWK), most of the people who will drive up to MKE aren't especially high-yield passengers, par
42 Srbmod : Some of them are just selling their shares on the open market instead of tendering them (no telling how many of those shares ended up in the hands of
43 Mke717spotter : Well that's good. So I won't need to be in a rush to book one last flight on YX then eh?
44 Sllevin : While that's certainly true, this is actually an enormous victory for AAI. This "change of heart" on the behalf of investors is a clear signal that w
45 Post contains links 2175301 : The other twist that many have not heard of is.... how will new board members actually behave in the future. Let's assume for a moment that the AirTra
46 Cellardoor : It was all I could do not to say this in my arrival announcement into MKE this afternoon- "Ladies and Gentlemen, AirTran Airways would like to thank y
47 Knope2001 : If the citizens of Milwaukee had anything to do with it, AirTran wouldn't win and Midwest would live on alone.
48 Post contains links Longhaulheavy : Well, YX isn't letting this go without a fight. They've finally done what I've wanted them to do for years - partner with NW. http://www.jsonline.com/
49 Nitrohelper : Is this the first step to a Midwest buy-out by Northwest ? They could use the DC-9-717 model for replacements. When will NWA retire the DC-9s ? anybo
50 Post contains images Travatl : You're just wrong. Were you were wearing one of the buttons at the time?
51 Tedex : Based on what? Were all your passengers in the process of moving to Orlando, or are you assuming that FL will be able to aquire YX and is planning to
52 Travatl : Calm down Tedex - he was just being fecitious.....
53 Cellardoor : Ever heard of sarcasm, Tedex? Let me explain... Milwaukee does not want AirTran Airways to be their hometown airline. Knowing that and thanking the ci
54 Post contains images SkyexRamper : Is that a new bird Boeing is going to make? But with only 25 YX 717, how could they replace anything?!
55 Srbmod : That also includes the subsidiary AirTran Holdings created to purchase shares of MEH....... Which is part of the reasoning why the tender offer was e
56 Travatl : Lol - I put one on my bag.
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