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787 Air France : Too Early.  
User currently offlineFCKC From France, joined Nov 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 4
Posted (7 years 3 months 1 week ago) and read 8064 times:

Recently we have seen on Airliners.net a topic speaking about a rumor , saying AF will sign a 787 order at the Paris Air Show.

Do NOT expect any 787 order by AF at the Show.

At the occasion of the 50 planes order signed by AF these past days , JC Spinetta , CEO of AF , declared in the French newspapers , he will not sign any 787 or A350XWB order , before 2008 or 2009.
He is not in a hurry to place an order for new generation medium wide bodies.
Sure AF will buy one of them (probably not both) , but the choice is not yet done.

Curious to know , where this rumor came from !!!

17 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineBobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6465 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 7883 times:

Quoting FCKC (Thread starter):
Curious to know , where this rumor came from !!!

It came from the same source as most rumors on a.net. The member just made it up.


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30906 posts, RR: 87
Reply 2, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 7777 times:
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Well the 787 just added another one to two years of availability exclusivity with the latest projected A350 EIS delay so I can see some airlines who were on the fence taking a breather now, since slot availability on the 787 is no longer so constrained and they need to see how the latest A350 proposal shakes out.

User currently offlineCV990 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 7748 times:

Hi!

Quite wise the decision of AF! I think actually most of the airlines will start seriously to consider both 787/A350 at that time, 2008/2009, then it's like a very wise portuguese sentence - "Those who have nails can play the guitar!!!". What we are having so far is just a small slice on the market...things will start to "warm up" latter!
regards


User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5752 posts, RR: 47
Reply 4, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 7624 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Well the 787 just added another one to two years of availability exclusivity with the latest projected A350 EIS delay so I can see some airlines who were on the fence taking a breather now, since slot availability on the 787 is no longer so constrained and they need to see how the latest A350 proposal shakes out.

Well I still hope Beoing still goes for a significant production rate increase if anything but to provide carriers with the 787 when they really need to retire inefficient fleets but also to meet the demand that they have created with the 787.



That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineTancrede From Finland, joined May 2006, 245 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 7435 times:

Quoting FCKC (Thread starter):
Recently we have seen on Airliners.net a topic speaking about a rumor , saying AF will sign a 787 order at the Paris Air Show.

Do NOT expect any 787 order by AF at the Show.

At the occasion of the 50 planes order signed by AF these past days , JC Spinetta , CEO of AF , declared in the French newspapers , he will not sign any 787 or A350XWB order , before 2008 or 2009.
He is not in a hurry to place an order for new generation medium wide bodies.
Sure AF will buy one of them (probably not both) , but the choice is not yet done.

Very wise decision from AF as there is no hurry for this company to choose which one will fly under the famous white skin.


User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4318 posts, RR: 28
Reply 6, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 7353 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Well the 787 just added another one to two years of availability exclusivity with the latest projected A350 EIS delay so I can see some airlines who were on the fence taking a breather now, since slot availability on the 787 is no longer so constrained and they need to see how the latest A350 proposal shakes out.

Couldn't that have the opposite affect with some airlines? Now that the A350 will EIS even further out they may have no choice but to go with the 787 since its availability, despite being years out, is still more palatable than the A350's.

Quoting Tancrede (Reply 5):
Very wise decision from AF as there is no hurry for this company to choose which one will fly under the famous white skin.

I think after being stung by the A380 delays, and since the 787 and A350 will be more of a technological leap than the A380 was, AF is probably taking a wait-and-see approach. Besides, I have no doubt they have production slots reserved with both manufacturers. Given AF's size and prestige, both manufacturers will probably do just about anything to appease AF and I don't think either would ever say "Sorry, get to the back of the line" if and when AF decides to order.



I'm not a racist...I hate Biden, too.
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30906 posts, RR: 87
Reply 7, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 7283 times:
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Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 6):
Couldn't that have the opposite affect with some airlines? Now that the A350 will EIS even further out they may have no choice but to go with the 787 since its availability, despite being years out, is still more palatable than the A350's.

It can, and probably will for some carriers, but for others with young A330 and A340 fleets, it does give them some breathing room to see how things shakeout within the industry as a whole without forcing their hand to buy the 787 now because they can and then Airbus ends up with an A350 that would have better fit their needs, overall.

Assuming Airbus now kicks back final configuration (M8?) to late 2009 instead of late 2008, airlines who were already committed to post-2013 deliveries (BA, LH, etc.) are not really under time pressures. If anything for those airlines, as the 787 continues to score orders, it favors the A350 as Airbus will be more "hungry" and could offer better overall deals, especially to keep current customers with large Airbus widebody fleets (LH) from defecting.


User currently offlineFlySSC From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 7411 posts, RR: 57
Reply 8, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 7013 times:

Quoting FCKC (Thread starter):
Curious to know , where this rumor came from !!!

In another Topic, somebody asked why AF did wait not for the Paris Air Show to announce its order.
I answered that maybe they did so, because they planned to announce another order for the B787 order at the Paris Air Show ... but that was just a joke ...  Sad

http://www.airliners.net/discussions...al_aviation/read.main/3423205/1/#1 Reply# 99.

Air France is evaluating both the A350 & B787. Of course. That's not a "scoop" ! All the airlines who have not yet placed an order for one for the other are doing the same.

Now let see the facts :

Air France's policy to save money on maintenance is clear : the minimum of aircraft types/family AND engines commonality with only one supplier for all the entire fleet : GE.

When the decision to order A350 or the B787 will come, Air France's fleet will be :

Short/Medium haul : A318/A319/A320/A321 (as it will be already after next June 10th and the retirement of the last B735)

Long Haul : A380, B777 (-200ER & -300ER), A332/A343.

For ALL those aircraft, one single engine manufacturer : GE.

Since the A350 is not proposed (yet ?) by Airbus with GE engines (BIG mistake), I really don't see AF ordering it.
Also, the fact that AF firmed 2 A380 and ordered extra A320/A321 (at a VERY low price probably) as a compensation for the delivery delays doesn't speak in favour of the A350 : It means that the compensation will not concern a potential future order for the A350.


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30906 posts, RR: 87
Reply 9, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 6944 times:
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Quoting FlySSC (Reply 8):
Also, the fact that AF firmed 2 A380 and ordered extra A320/A321 (at a VERY low price probably)...

43% off per AVITAS, but this is for the entire deal and is not broken down by model (A380 and A320). Aviation capital received 47% off their 20 frame A320 family order, so it stands to reason Airbus did not give away the store to AF.  Smile


User currently offlineBrianDromey From Ireland, joined Dec 2006, 3920 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 6611 times:

Quoting FlySSC (Reply 8):

Long Haul : A380, B777 (-200ER & -300ER), A332/A343.

For ALL those aircraft, one single engine manufacturer : GE.

There are two engine manufacturers here. CFM (joint GE-SNECMA company, I grant you) & GE itself, but thats just splitting hairs. At any rate, the CFM-56 and the GE CF-6 (on the A330) are based on the same core, IIRC.

Of course KL are the other variable in the AF equation. I think the replacement of KLs Fokkers & 737 classics is more of an interesting question than the long haul fleet @ AK/KL

Will KL join the Airbus family, or are both fleets big enough to negate the coast advantages of commonality?

Brian.



Next flights: MAN-ORK-LHR(EI)-MAN(BD); MAN-LHR(BD)-ORK (EI); DUB-ZRH-LAX (LX) LAX-YYZ (AC) YYZ-YHZ-LHR(AC)-DUB(BD)
User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 11, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 6455 times:

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 10):
Of course KL are the other variable in the AF equation. I think the replacement of KLs Fokkers & 737 classics is more of an interesting question than the long haul fleet @ AK/KL

Will KL join the Airbus family, or are both fleets big enough to negate the coast advantages of commonality?

One must also add Transavia into the decision.......Transavia also operates a large 737NG fleet. My guess is that KLM/Transavia will continue with their 737NG fleet (including KL replacing its remaining 737 Classics with 737NGs at some point) while AF continues with its A32X fleet.....both fleets are large enough (and growing) so that they need not be totally rationalized.

On a similar note, AF's latest order indicates that the newly ordered 773ERs will be 744 replacements (But wont the A380s replace the 744s on the highest demand routes? Thats another discussion.) meaning that AF will be phasing out its 744 fleet..........yet I do not foresee KL eliminating its 744/74E fleet in the near term future.

Most believe that the seperate KL brand will remain and there will be some differences in the KL and AF fleets. Time will tell.


User currently offlineCba From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 4531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 6173 times:

Quoting Tancrede (Reply 5):

Very wise decision from AF as there is no hurry for this company to choose which one will fly under the famous white skin.

 checkmark 

Once the 744's leave the fleet (see earlier thread about new 77W order), AF will have a very young fleet. The A350 is about the size to replace the 772/77W fleet and the 787 is about the size to replace the 332 (788) and 343 (789). However, the A343 is the oldest plane in the fleet, and is still relatively young (not even 15 years). The A332's that AF have are brand new, and the oldest 772's were delivered around 10 years ago.

There's no reason for them to rush into a new order just yet.


User currently offlineJimyvr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 6143 times:

Probably got something to do with the postponing EIS for 787-10X since AF is rumoured as possible -10X launch carrier.

User currently offlineMCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 5924 times:

I don't think Boeing cares at this point. Their backlog is full for the foreseeable future and this is one they wouldn't be at all surprised to lose to Airbus anyway.


Airliners.net Moderator Team
User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 15, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 5849 times:

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 14):
I don't think Boeing cares at this point. Their backlog is full for the foreseeable future and this is one they wouldn't be at all surprised to lose to Airbus anyway.

Gotta disagree, Boeing would be suprised, as pointed out, its seems that most believe that AF will go with the 787 and not the A350 for a variety of reasons including the GE powerplant issue.

AF simply is not in a rush to order.....they have a lot of new widebody longhaul aircraft on order (773ER, A380) that will allow the 744s and the A343s to be retired (even considering expansion)......and AF has plently of time to replace 772ERs and A332s. (There is a rumor out there saying that AF may return some A332s when there leases are up...anyone know anything about this? )

Quoting Jimyvr (Reply 13):
Probably got something to do with the postponing EIS for 787-10X since AF is rumoured as possible -10X launch carrier.

Good point........the 787-10X is an important airplane to AF as a 772ER/A343 replacement.


User currently offlineFlySSC From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 7411 posts, RR: 57
Reply 16, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 5224 times:

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 15):
There is a rumor out there saying that AF may return some A332s when there leases are up...anyone know anything about this?

I don't know where this rumor comes from but this is a nonsense. AF is VERY happy with the A332. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see AF add more (leased) A332 in a near future. This aircraft is a money maker. It is the perfect plane for new opened route (BLR, SEA, etc ...), testing boosted new capacities (2nd frequency to HKG, GRU, GIG) and it is versatile enough to suit the longest route (CDG-NRT, CDG-HKG) as well as the medium ones (West African network).

Definately, the A343 will be replaced first. The fleet has already decreased from 22 to 19 a/c and soon 15.


User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 970 posts, RR: 51
Reply 17, posted (7 years 3 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 4531 times:

Quoting FlySSC (Reply 16):
I don't know where this rumor comes from but this is a nonsense. AF is VERY happy with the A332.

Dutchjet didn't say AF was unhappy with them. Leases are renewed for a host of factors and it might not necessarily be favorable to renew a certain lease.

A great example is ATA. They leased a significant portion of their fleet including 737NG and 757 at very expensive rates. They were very pleased about the performance and economics of the airplane but the lease payments sucked them to the bone. With the global demand for aircraft being what it is, AF's lessor (ILFC?) will probably want to increase the lease rates. AF will obviously re-evaluate their position before retuning the aircraft or renewing the lease.

But even if lease rates do go up, what other aircraft would AF utilize? I agree that they will almost certainly renew their leases.


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