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A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?  
User currently offlineN1786b From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 560 posts, RR: 17
Posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 20729 times:

Interesting blurb came across the wire this morning in Paris.
In French:

Airbus a des problèmes avec les clients de l'A350 (presse)
FRANCFORT, 29 mai 2007 (AFP)
Plusieurs gros clients d'Airbus demandent à l'avionneur européen, filiale d'EADS, de revoir la copie de son futur long courrier A350 XWB, rapporte le Süddeutsche Zeitung mardi.

My quick translation.

Airbus has problems with A350 customers
According to the Süddeutsche Zeitung, several important Airbus customers have asked the European constructor to go back to the drawing board with its next long-haul airplane the A350XWB.

This report and the ATW story about another redesign using composite barrels may mean we will see a major announcement at Le Bourget.

Does anybody have access to the original article in German. If so, can you let us know if there is any "new" news in it?
We all know that Airbus has denied studying the move to composite barrels (on speednews) .....

- n1786b

237 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLHStarAlliance From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 20625 times:

Here is the link :

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/,tt3m2/wirtschaft/artikel/133/116017/


Clark again one of those ...  Yeah sure  Yeah sure


Konstantin


User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 20609 times:

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/,tt3m4/wirtschaft/artikel/133/116017/

http://www.aero.de/news.php?varnewsi...D=1e64bea68c951e9d334896781963c1e1


User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 25
Reply 3, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 20593 times:

That "news" is not really new,since discussed to death in various other threads already since one week...


Please respect animals - don't eat them...
User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1153 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 20575 times:

How much need is there for a major "re-drawing" at this stage just because a full composite barrel was chosen?
I know that a nose job, adopting the A380 nose, might require some attention, but the full composite barrel would "only" apply to the skin surface keeping the same inner and outer shape of the fuselage ... no?


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6924 posts, RR: 46
Reply 5, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 20515 times:

While we have been discussing this at great length on another thread
ATWonline: A350 To Go Barrel Composite Fuselage (by 2wingtips May 25 2007 in Civil Aviation)
this does shed new light on the topic. I have been expecting it, as I have noted how few original A350 customers have formally committed to the XWB. If I had been buying airliners I certainly would have made the same point, and insisted that Airbus go with the full barrel approach, primarily from a maintenance perspective. Hopefully Airbus will finally get it right.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 20480 times:

The design freeze would be summer 2008, EIS 2013?

Many adjustments can be expected, no doubt being labelled "new version" here on a.net...  Big grin


User currently offline11Bravo From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1720 posts, RR: 10
Reply 7, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 20400 times:

Quoting Chiad (Reply 4):
How much need is there for a major "re-drawing" at this stage just because a full composite barrel was chosen?
I know that a nose job, adopting the A380 nose, might require some attention, but the full composite barrel would "only" apply to the skin surface keeping the same inner and outer shape of the fuselage ... no?

It would likely result in a redesign of most of the fuselage. The internal structure would be very different.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
Many adjustments can be expected, no doubt being labelled "new version" here on a.net...

....adjustment? Gimme a break Keesje.  Yeah sure

Switching from panels to barrels would be a sea change. It would clearly be yet another version requiring major redesign, and I strongly suspect a significant EIS delay.



WhaleJets Rule!
User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6924 posts, RR: 46
Reply 8, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 20348 times:

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 7):

It would likely result in a redesign of most of the fuselage. The internal structure would be very different.

 checkmark 
The saving grace is that I suspect that not too much detail design has been done at this stage; however, it is a MAJOR design change. But the impact will not be so much on engineering, it will be on manufacturing. Astuteman has pointed out on the aforementioned thread and elsewhere that Airbus must now line up the suppliers, and they have to get the equipment, to build the barrels. Airbus obviously had a pretty good idea how they were going to build the panels; now they are back to square 1. I cannot see how this will not impact EIS.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 20334 times:

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 7):
Switching from panels to barrels would be a sea change. It would clearly be yet another version requiring major redesign, and I strongly suspect a significant EIS delay.

Why? Still six years to go until 2013. The real problem would be the investment into the necessary infrastructure and machinery.


User currently offline11Bravo From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1720 posts, RR: 10
Reply 10, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 20078 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 9):
Why?

...because it's a major change both in terms of the design itself, and more importantly, the production process as you suggest.

On one of the many earlier versions of the A350, Airbus changed the flightdeck and crew rest layout and that resulted in a one year shift in EIS. This change is much more complex than that by any measure. I'll bet we're looking at a two year delay, at least, with this major change from panels to barrels.

At least they only signed six additional firm orders for the "XWB" that they will have to renegotiate along with the rest from the original set of customers.



WhaleJets Rule!
User currently offlineSeJoWa From United States of America, joined May 2006, 352 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 20034 times:

Just some notes on the original article in the Sueddeutsche - there's been so much speculation on a.net and the industry in general that the reported rumours should be rendered precisely :

Customers not satisfied with rejigged A350

According to (our?) informations Airlines Emirates, Singapore, Qatar and ILSC (sic) among others are asking Airbus to build the A350 out of big parts made in one piece (id est, barrels).

...


Airbus is planning, unlike Boeing, to build the plane with panels. Critics think maintenance would be markedly higher.
Clark thinks "at length, we will choose the construction in sections" ("Wir werden deswegen auf Dauer auch den Sektionsansatz wählen").

"We are working on the basis of the known Designs" says an Airbus spokeswoman (maybe Madame Kracht?).
She denied rumours that Airbus would announce a change in strategy (?) at LeBourget already (sic)

...

"EIS is important, but the design too must me done right" says Clark.

...

---

It's really very hard to extract anything meaningful from all this noise, and should not be allowed to happen.

I'd like to append an excerpt from a widely circulated article in theChicago Tribune:.

Initially, Boeing and its partners explored making each barrel of the 7E7's fuselage out of several large composite panels that would be bolted together to form a cylinder. That's the way aluminum planes are made.

One by one, however, the engineers began to see that this didn't make much sense. Bolting panels together means the edges of those panels have to be made thicker to accommodate the bolts. Not only would that add weight, but it would also require lots of seams and joints. Those connections would fatigue like aluminum and require regular rounds of expensive maintenance.

"When you got right down to it, there was no advantage," Statkus said. "It was like black aluminum. If it's just a panel here and a panel here and a panel here all bolted down, it's just like metal."

The more Boeing studied it, the more obvious the ideal solution became. If the engineers could invent a way to make a single, monolithic piece of composite for each barrel, the benefits would be enormous. Not only would single-piece barrels make for a lighter-weight airplane, they also would ensure that manufacturing one would be cheaper and faster. No rivets. No assembly. No expensive tools to hold pieces in place while they were being bolted together.

Once Statkus and the other converts saw the possibilities, there was no turning back.

So Statkus sequestered engineers from Boeing and its partners in a room filled with clay, cardboard and other modeling materials. Their mandate: Come up with a way to build a one-piece barrel.

"We only opened the door to give them doughnuts," Statkus said with a laugh.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/techno...techtopheds-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true

----


User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 19868 times:

Quoting SeJoWa (Reply 11):
Customers not satisfied with rejigged A350

According to (our?) informations Airlines Emirates, Singapore, Qatar and ILSC (sic) among others are asking Airbus to build the A350 out of big parts made in one piece (id est, barrels)

This is a huge validation of the Boeing position regarding design. The 787 is indeed a game changer, and now Airbus is finally perhaps getting the mesage from the customers. They had better listen, because by the time they get this design finished and EIS of around 2014-15, Boeing could very well have announced Y3 and a replacement for the 737, leaving Airbus far behind.



One Nation Under God
User currently offlineCygnusChicago From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 758 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 19320 times:

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 12):
This is a huge validation of the Boeing position regarding design. The 787 is indeed a game changer

Yea, maybe, but if they feel so strongly about it, why don't they just order 787's?



If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31055 posts, RR: 87
Reply 14, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 19296 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Spiegel Online is reporting much the same - http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,485374,00.html.

While Airbus spokesfolk continue to deny they are moving from panels to barrels, that QR still says they intend to sign at Paris leads me to believe Airbus probably has decided to go to barrels and will announce so at Paris in conjunction with the QR order.


User currently offlineFlyABR From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 666 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 19117 times:

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 13):
Yea, maybe, but if they feel so strongly about it, why don't they just order 787's?

because the 787 needs a valid competitor to keep prices in check!!!


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6924 posts, RR: 46
Reply 16, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 19117 times:

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 13):
Yea, maybe, but if they feel so strongly about it, why don't they just order 787's?

Most of them are; but many (or most) want Airbus to stay in the game, which may not happen if they stick to the panel approach. I believe this is why only one customer for the old A350 has signed on to the XWB; I think all the others are holding out for barrels. On the other thread on this topic Der Spiegel is reporting that Airbus is emphatically denying going to barrels; I think they are digging their own grave with their tongues.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 19082 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
While Airbus spokesfolk continue to deny they are moving from panels to barrels, that QR still says they intend to sign at Paris leads me to believe Airbus probably has decided to go to barrels and will announce so at Paris in conjunction with the QR order.

Well, what do you expect for Airbus PR? Every major change that occurred was deigned right up until the time it happen. We will have to wait for the Paris Airshow. My contact in the airline industry says that Airbus is really, really under the gun to announce the final and definitive version of the A350 at the show. If they don't then watch the stampede to the Boeing chateau.

The Paris Airshow is make or break for the A350, from what I am hearing.


User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 18998 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
The Paris Airshow is make or break for the A350, from what I am hearing.

And they may well anounce a large number of orders at the event, given that the entire progamme is under such pressure....



One Nation Under God
User currently offlineBeta From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 295 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 18912 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
My contact in the airline industry says that Airbus is really, really under the gun to announce the final and definitive version of the A350 at the show. If they don't then watch the stampede to the Boeing chateau.

The Paris Airshow is make or break for the A350, from what I am hearing.

Interesting. Thanks for the info. It will definitely make Le Bourget fun to follow this year.


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6924 posts, RR: 46
Reply 20, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 18912 times:

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 18):

And they may well anounce a large number of orders at the event, given that the entire progamme is under such pressure....

But the same Spiegel article is quoting those very customers that are expected to place the big orders as being the ones that are unhappy with the panel approach.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
My contact in the airline industry says that Airbus is really, really under the gun to announce the final and definitive version of the A350 at the show. If they don't then watch the stampede to the Boeing chateau.

To me this means that if Airbus sticks with panels they bolt. I would too.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offline474218 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6340 posts, RR: 9
Reply 21, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 18873 times:

Quoting Chiad (Reply 4):
How much need is there for a major "re-drawing" at this stage just because a full composite barrel was chosen?
I know that a nose job, adopting the A380 nose, might require some attention, but the full composite barrel would "only" apply to the skin surface keeping the same inner and outer shape of the fuselage ... no?

A "re-drawing" never heard a major redesign stated in such casual term? Lets say you are building a house, the design calls two bedrooms and one bath, then the the builders says now I want three bedrooms and two baths. Do you tell him all thats required is a "re-drawing?"


User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 18873 times:

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 13):
Yea, maybe, but if they feel so strongly about it, why don't they just order 787's?

I believe SIA did, but I could be wrong.



One Nation Under God
User currently offlineBigJKU From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 883 posts, RR: 12
Reply 23, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 18815 times:

I am really curious how much cost cutting and appeasing the labor groups has to do with the support for the panel approach by Airbus.

There are really only two obvious benefits to this approach with the primary one being it will work with their existing infrastructure and thus will minimize cost as much as possible. Going to Boeing's approach will entail new transportation methods, lots of new tooling and a very large cost if they try to do most of it in Europe.

There is also the hidden threat to lots of peoples jobs which Airbus may or may not be able to overcome. How many people are employed to manufacture an A350XWB with panels vs without. I would suspect the answer is that a riveted panel approach will have labor a lot closer to the A330 than to the 787. More than engineering that was my biggest concern with the plane. The hours spent building and maintaing such an aircraft would seem to be far more than that spent on the 787.

I think to make the Boeing approach work you need to have substantial sub-contracting and, to get the full benefit, you need to shed workforce across the entire production process. We don't have exact numbers of how many fewer people are building the 787 vs the 767 or 777 but that number is substantially less. Can Airbus which needs Power 8 just to make ends meet really come out and propose a construction method that will cut down on the labor force even further?


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6924 posts, RR: 46
Reply 24, posted (7 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 18730 times:

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 23):
I think to make the Boeing approach work you need to have substantial sub-contracting and, to get the full benefit, you need to shed workforce across the entire production process. We don't have exact numbers of how many fewer people are building the 787 vs the 767 or 777 but that number is substantially less. Can Airbus which needs Power 8 just to make ends meet really come out and propose a construction method that will cut down on the labor force even further?

But there will still be more jobs available than if Airbus can't sell a significant number of A350's, which is the present situation.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
25 Grantcv : What would an airshow be without an A350 redesign? Wouldn't going to a full composite fuselage, built the Boeing way - in large pre-assembled units,
26 BigJKU : Oh I agree that is a rational take on it, but no one ever said Unions and, most importantly, the politicians who get their support from union members
27 CygnusChicago : I've heard this before, but I don't think airlines are charitable organizations. They're not going to operate an inefficient fleet for an extra half
28 Ken777 : I'm in the camp that believes they will change to barrels. Now the question is will they change the size? Specifically make it "a little larger' as JL
29 SEPilot : Very good points; the patent discussion has been extensively discussed on the other thread on this topic. But what is the point in bringing an appare
30 Post contains images Stitch : If you're still working with the architect on the plan and haven't laid any foundation - which is true here - then yes. I don't know how much labor i
31 SEPilot : I think the point is that the panel approach involves far more labor at final assembly, as they have to be attached together and attached to the fram
32 FlyABR : i suspect there are a number of airlines that would wait 5 years to get a comparable 787 aircraft from airbus if there were some big discounts involv
33 Kaitak : So, to summarise, the basic problem is with the construction, rather than the actual aircraft itself. When it is said that Airbus needs to go back to
34 Osiris30 : Kinda/sorta/maybe LOL The problem is the barrel approach is supposedly MUCH lower maintenance over the life of an aircraft than any panel/skin approa
35 EI321 : After just telling us that it has closed the gap with the 787? I smell something that starts with s and ends with t. Actually yes. Design freeze will
36 Airbazar : You're assuming they haven't already been working on it behind closed doors, for quite some time. EIS is still 6 years away. There's still plenty of
37 SEPilot : But it will help Airbus not one whit if they have to give huge discounts to get people to wait and thus cannot make any money.
38 NAV20 : There's a bit of 'chicken and egg' there, Airbazar. The 6 years to EIS are the problem, not the solution. What are Airbus going to build and sell to
39 Post contains images CygnusChicago : I don't really buy into this argument. Airlines are not going to sit around and wait for an Airbus aircraft for three reasons: 1) In practice, we've
40 BlackKnight : Sounds like a second 787 line somewhere is needed. I wonder if Boeing made the commitment @ Paris what the effect would be?
41 Post contains images Bringiton : My thoughts , Point by point Airbus wont be in a position to give big discounts , as the have to cover the 10 billion euro cost of development . More
42 BigJKU : That is not really the full extent of what I am talking about. Panels of CFRP can be moved and presumably manufactured at the existing facilities tha
43 Bringiton : The number that usually gets thrown around is 10 billion Dollars , out of which boeing spent 6 billion and the partners the remaining 4 . Plus they w
44 Morvious : What is Royal in this world? Air Canada for example changed their A345 and A343 fleet to a Boeing fleet with B777's and B787's (I'm not shure about t
45 AirSpare : I didn't comment on the first thread, I'll do 2 p on this one. exactly what they need, some flights from Spirit who has room for expansion. I'd say it
46 SEPilot : I believe that the primary reason is that the airlines are HOPING that Airbus will deliver a competitive plane with the A350, and are willing to give
47 Glideslope : Impossible. IMO, design freeze late 2008 under ideal conditions. EIS 2015.
48 Post contains images Ahab : If a second line were to open up for the 787, I would like it to be at the Boeing’s Long Beach Manufacturing Plant. Coincide with some KC787’s to
49 SEPilot : This talk of a second 787 line is WAY premature. If Boeing achieves its goal of assembling one in 3 days they will be able to assemble over 20 per mo
50 FlyABR : problem with the A340 is that it isn't particularly competitive with the 777...and wide-body purchases in the last couple years have shown that...com
51 Ken777 : It will be interesting to see how the suppliers respond to the rapid sales of the 787 and the potential for other large orders. Some suppliers (such
52 JayinKitsap : Am I missing something, but freezing a design 7 hears before EIS seems idiotic. But needing 7 years for any new plane seems incredibly pokey. Design
53 SEPilot : This is one big area where Airbus is trailing Boeing quite badly. It really is ridiculous that they take so much longer.
54 CygnusChicago : I really don't think AA is considering Airbus aircraft.
55 Halls120 : How many times are we going to see this pipedream? Most of the MD facilities at Long Beach have already fallen to the wrecker's ball. All that is lef
56 Airbazar : Have you looked at the backlog of A330's and A320's? Plus the A380 will soon be generatiing pretty good cashflow too. In other words, by 2008, everyt
57 474218 : Boeing is a great aircraft manfacture but there is no possable way they can assemble a 787 (or any other aircraft) in three days. What they will do i
58 SEPilot : It would be incredibly inefficient to split the production of any airliner between two sites. If they cannot expand any more at Everett they would fi
59 RIXrat : Has anyone asked this question? With about 500 firm orders for the B787 and the A350 appearing on the horizon in about 2014-15, how many B787 will hav
60 Poitin : I tend to agree for two reasons: 1) Where do they get all the sub assemblies? There are only so many companies who can make them. While it is possibl
61 Post contains images SEPilot : I agree that they will do all they can to increase production, but as you pointed out, they have been burned before and do not want to go through tha
62 Poitin : Ah, Dougloid -- you managed to get your reply just before the moderator chopped the old thread so I couldn't reply. And while you may be a gray haired
63 Post contains images Flysherwood : Does anybody else think that the EIS being still 6 years away is an absolutely ridiculous long time away?!?! I mean, why does it take Airbus so LONG
64 Post contains images SEPilot : I totally agree with you This is exactly what Boeing has said their goal is. The point is that so much of the plane arrives preassembled that it is e
65 Zvezda : SQ need about 10 new widebodies per year. SQ ordered 20 787-9s for delivery in 2011-2013. They signed a LoI for 20 A350s for delivery in 2012-2014. N
66 Ken777 : They're probably not, but airlines like AA and WN will be pushing Boeing and the engine OEMs for Y1, making that release far earlier than Airbus woul
67 Post contains images RedFlyer : The problem with Airbus is that it was created to save the aerospace industrial base on the Continent, in particular the jobs. To outsource a majorit
68 Zvezda : Three days is not the time for complete manufacture; it is the time for final assembly. Because the barrels will arrived pre-stuffed with all the sys
69 Post contains images Flysherwood : I would hope that you made that statement with tongue in cheek!?!?! If you are not, that would not be a really comforting program to be compared with
70 Flysherwood : Official launch I believe was late 2004 with EIS in May 2008 which is a little over 3 years. What is Airbus' excuse? I do believe that many on A.net,
71 Post contains links RedFlyer : The Boeing board of directors granted authority to offer the airplane for sale in late 2003. Program launch occurred in April 2004 with a record orde
72 474218 : That is exactly what I said, they will complete a 787 every three days, but actual manufacture time is more like four to six weeks. I even looked it
73 CygnusChicago : I'd expect the likes of AA and WN to take up the first two or three years production of the 737RS. That will give Airbus a few years of breathing roo
74 Zvezda : No. Three days is the goal for duration of final assembly. It is not the frequency (except that as a step in the ramping up process).
75 RedFlyer : Deleted post because of correction in quoted post.[Edited 2007-05-30 00:38:58]
76 CygnusChicago : Sorry, I meant to write "A350" not "A380", going back to edit it...
77 474218 : What do you consider final assembly? Installing the light bulbs, than may be that can be accomplished in three days, but checking out the wiring to t
78 Aminobwana : The articles, even the ones in serious publications as is the Sueddeutsche Zeitung, are written by reporters which understand little regarding the is
79 Post contains images CygnusChicago : So, what, you're saying they shouldn't change to using barrels? I think you forgot to put a little after that sentence...
80 Areopagus : Dec 2002 (IIRC): announcement of Sonic Cruiser cancellation in favor of 7E7 Dec 2003: authority to offer Apr 2004: launch Jul 2007: rollout May 2008:
81 SEPilot : I think the key here is that Boeing was focusing on what the airlines really wanted and how to improve their economics, rather than building what the
82 Khobar : There are airlines currently waiting to see what Airbus comes up with. IIRC, QR stated they were firmly committed to Airbus and would wait however lo
83 Post contains links 777DEN : from http://www.boeing.com/commercial/787family/programfacts.html ================= Days the 787 will be in final assembly The goal is three days ====
84 SEPilot : But QR has also apparently been unhappy with the panel approach; if there is any truth to the stories referred to here and Airbus sticks to it, they
85 CygnusChicago : Just like Boeing, Airbus listens to customers. The Superjumbo was shopped around for years, just like Boeing shopped around the 747-500/600, and even
86 NAV20 : Yes, Airbazar. The A320 backlog is healthy, about four years' worth; but single-aisles are not a very profitable area. The A330/40 line has less than
87 SEPilot : This just illustrates my point. Airbus shopped the Queen of Whalejets at about the same time as Boeing shopped the 747/500/600. Boeing got the messag
88 Stitch : Airbus launched the A380 with 50 orders from six airlines - EK, AF, ILFC, SQ, QF and VS. Boeing launched the 787 with 50 orders from one airline - NH.
89 Post contains links NAV20 : I think that's precisely true. There is evidence (from John Welch of GE) that building the A380 was a primary objective of the original EADS merger f
90 Post contains images Bringiton : No the question is "When will they" That was a few weeks ago . They now have close to 600 firm orders. Yes but 2011 is something like 4 years out . B
91 WingedMigrator : Bear in mind that the barrels must be attached to the frames as well. Or rather, the frames must be installed in the barrels after they come out of t
92 Aminobwana : If you read the 3rd paragraph of my reply 78, you would see that my opinion is just the contrary, meaning that if all nearly all knowledgeable people
93 Zvezda : If one omits from the analysis the simple fact that the size of the 787/A350/777 market is radically different from that of the VLA market, then that
94 Post contains images NAV20 : You've covered a lot of ground in #92, Aminobwana - some comments:- I have a strong feeling that one thing we'll hear from Paris is that Qatar (the Em
95 Ken777 : Airbus has a problem addressing the 320 successor - they are going to need the composite barrel technology from the 350 in order to compete with Boei
96 Grantcv : I am not sure why, The process of signing up the first six customers for the A380 was painful - remember how long the A3XX concept stuck around befor
97 ZKNBX : The more you look at this... Airbus is seriously in the poo. The one positive is they are telling their customers (at present) that they are listening
98 Bringiton : Final assembly for every jet means ,that everything is put together , all systems are ready , checked and ready to be delivered . Obviously this woul
99 Post contains links Bringiton : This - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rebIfwhpeY http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/aerospace/archives/109472.asp
100 Post contains images Scbriml : That really depends how you define "very profitable". The British Government might well describe the A320 as "nicely profitable". I believe it is mor
101 Post contains images NAV20 : Please re-read my post, Scrimbl, which clearly says 'at the moment.' Then check EADS' current newsletter, which shows 18 orders against 28 deliveries
102 Zvezda : The A3XX was from 1993 to 2000. The first 78 WhaleJet sales were in 2001. In the sixty-five months since, there have been only 78 net WhaleJet sales,
103 Post contains images Aminobwana : Cannot be excluded. This would mean QATAR investing and immediately after hyping their investment, hoping other will follow. STITCH thinks they will
104 WINGS : Don't really want to get in the middle of your discussion, but hopefully my numbers will help shed some light on the matter. Airbus currently have th
105 EI321 : Wouldn't a design have to leave the drawing board, in order to go back to it?
106 Bringiton : Thats a very weak argument , the same could be made when airbus switched form XNB to XWB , wouldnt that count as a design change? In principle if the
107 Post contains images Scbriml : Ha ha, yes, picking an arbitrary "snap shot" in time and claiming that proves your point is very easy. Hence my reason for comparing A330/340 sales a
108 Zvezda : Yes, in this industry, comparing sales for periods of less than twelve months is useless at best and misleading at worst.
109 Post contains links NAV20 : Well - that prediction didn't take long to come true. Usual Qatar thing though, only an MOU. The French President and the Emir being involved suggests
110 Zvezda : The interesting part is that Airbus are still signing commitments to deliver A350s in 2013. I think that should dispel all the suggestions of EIS bei
111 NAV20 : It should - when and if it bcomes a binding contract.
112 Post contains images Scbriml : It's always half-empty isn't it?
113 Stitch : Just a note, I believe(d) that because QR said they would order at Paris, that Airbus would go to barrels. QR has ordered (more or less) and is sayin
114 Zvezda : Why would Airbus sign an MoU for delivery in 2013 if they were not confident that they could deliver in 2013? That's six years away. I don't see any
115 Danny : Have to agree that six years is more than enough to develop XWB either with panels or barrels. The constraint holding up before was lack of sufficien
116 NAV20 : As I've said, Zvezda, i think there's another shoe which has yet to drop - Qatar taking some sort of equity stake in EADS, or alternatively putting u
117 Stitch : A388 deliveries still look to be on track, so that will provide a ton of cash to be made available for R&D, plus continued strong deliveries of the A
118 Poitin : I think that both of you are correct. Boeing has clearly said that the time the airframe will be in the final assembly area will be three days, but c
119 Zvezda : Healthy skepticism is one thing; an assumption that they must be lying is quite another. Back when the WhaleJet was called the A3XX, I believe Airbus
120 Post contains images Ken777 : And a lot of work will take place after the planes leave the assembly area. The key issue for Boeing is that the manufacturing approach they have tak
121 Poitin : You are right to hold your views, but I do look at history. And until I see a massive reorganization of Airbus, I will expect them to continue to mis
122 Post contains links EI321 : Sorry if its been mentioned already, but it appears that the A350 is still on course for 2013 EIS, and that Qatar will recieve the first aircraft. No
123 Post contains images NAV20 : Don't usually quote myself, E1321 ( ) but there was indeed a very specific mention in the story I posted:- I can understand that they may have decide
124 Semobeila : Exactly! Also I find it very interesting how the (never confirmed) delay to 2014 at the beginning of the thread ended up in a 2015 EIS in the last fe
125 Post contains images TeamAmerica : No? Boeing had produced a test barrel section for the Sonic Cruiser by 2002 (see image below). I think it is reasonable to assume that work on this t
126 BlackKnight : Why would they sign a contract for 2006 delivery of an A380? The difference between 2013 and 2015 is 2 years go figure. Airbus themselves have stated
127 Ikramerica : So that confirms the 3 year backlog (through June 2010) for the family, with 1 more year of backlog pending. If A350s start being assembled en masse
128 Post contains images CygnusChicago : Don't worry, I'm sure these the extra 20 frames are all just "free compensation" frames, in addition to a few billion dollars of cash compensation.
129 Post contains images Stitch : It's probably not that generous, but it will be interesting to see if any details of the actual contract come out. The Times UK had their unconfirmed
130 Post contains links Poitin : Stitch, thanks for mentioning that article. I remember reading it a month ago and couldn't find it since until you said Times of London. For those wh
131 Bringiton : Can any one provide the link to the site that does these analysis on orders and who got what discount?
132 Stitch : SU's discount was said to be 53%, which would equal the $102 million price claimed by the Times if SU bought the A350-900. On the flip-side, AY was s
133 Stitch : All of these sites are paid subscriber services with rates in the four figures. I am fortunate my library subscribes to these services so I can acces
134 Poitin : I suspect that you would be shot by someone in a black coat and dark glasses if you found out those discounts. As Stitch noted, the Times article is
135 Bringiton : But i'm sure that some members post some information sourced from a third party which uses its research (whatever that means) to estimates levels of
136 Poitin : I was merely joking about the man in the black coat. In fact, many of the airline executives know each other and informally (like while playing golf)
137 Stitch : I was reviewing the May 14th issue of Aircraft Value News and they note that QR might have gotten these planes for as little as $85 million a piece. O
138 Post contains images CygnusChicago : Just to clarify, in case my comment is misinterpreted, I was being facetious in light of the many unsubstantiated comments made about Airbus giving a
139 Bringiton : Well that works well for airbus , the delivery is like 6-7 years away , so the inflation all adds up . But it will also add up to cost so i dont know
140 Poitin : Either they sold the planes in USD, which is traditional, or this makes no sense because they should have sold it in Euros. Now, assuming that the pr
141 Post contains images Bringiton : Hsh hsh , big brother in the black coat is watching
142 Shenzhen : The change in discount percentage only applies if the list price doesn't increase duriing the time between signing and delivery. If the price of the
143 Stitch : Yeah, that might be correct. This is the relevant text from the article "A350 Selling Price "Drops" To Match B787"
144 Post contains images Astuteman : Indeed The key thing here is that people insist on believing that the 787's development is a 4 year process, and the A350XWB's twice that. That's rig
145 Post contains images SEPilot : I think Boeing had done enough homework to know that if they could meet their goals on the 787 it would sell. Certainly they had to overcome a lot of
146 HB88 : I guess todays announcement by QR in relation to their A350 order should render these types of threads moot.
147 Post contains images CygnusChicago : Of course not! We'll never let facts get in the way of rumor, innuendo and Airbus bashing Realistically, expect every change as we move to design fre
148 Atmx2000 : If the past is an indicator of future events, I hardly think QR signing a MoU for a version of the A350 is an indicator that the A350 won't be sent b
149 SEPilot : There is no question that much work that has gone into the 787 was done before its launch. It is unfortunate that Airbus has had so many twists and t
150 Zvezda : I don't have enough information at hand to comment on the first item in your list but third and at least some of the second took place during the fou
151 Post contains images Legoguy : Since the other thread on the A350, Qatar and the GEnx was just deleted, I'll post my question here... If a GE dominant airline is wishing to purchase
152 Post contains links Jetlife2 : Current production rate for CFMI is about 1200/year. For GE90 around 200/year. Size matters, investment (capital) matters. Any number could be produc
153 Stitch : The planned GEnx-1BA72 should have easily been good for 75,000lbs, so it could be used with the A350-800. GE will build more powerful variants of the
154 NAV20 : Try to help, Legoguy. If an airline wants a given engine make that isn't offered on the aeroplane they are looking at, yes, their only option would be
155 Post contains links 2wingtips : James Wallace has just stated that after his talks with Leahy it is clear the 350XWB won't go composite barrel. http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/aer
156 NAV20 : My guess is that, besides any question of extra cost or delays, there's politics in this again. Barrel construction is less labour-intensive than tra
157 RedFlyer : I think the issue would be that a lot of the labor would have to come from outside of EADS and in fact outside of Europe. Certainly much more so than
158 Ken777 : So Airbus is staying at the same drawing board. Maybe it's "the devil you know" factor and the need to get the plane to EIS as soon as they can, allo
159 NAV20 : Yes, that's right too, RedFlyer. It's an absurd decision, though, IMO. Less labour means lower cost. All Boeing have to do now is progressively extend
160 SEPilot : My personal opinion is that this has just relegated the A350 to an also-ran. It will sell, but nowhere near the numbers that it could have. Airbus sh
161 NAV20 : The only way to sell an inferior product is to offer it at a cheaper price. But that's not a viable strategy if (as seems certain in this case) said
162 Halls120 : I suspect they chose to go with composite panels over the barrel because they realized they had to get a new aircraft in the air as soon as possible,
163 Shenzhen : What about re-sale, fatigue life, lack of corrosion and so on. The barrel could increase the life of the plane considerably thereby increasing its va
164 BlackKnight : So questions such as: 1- Barrel or panels 2- A380 compensation or not 3- Other airlines disapproval with the A350 panel concept. 4- The 787 is a 10 y
165 Ken777 : As I noted above, Airbus might well believe that Y1 will come before Y3, leaving the panel based 350 in a good position to compete against the 777s.
166 RedFlyer : While definitely a lucrative segment of the market, unfortunately, that is not where their bread-and-butter is to be found.
167 Zvezda : While Y1 will come before Y3 (if Y3 ever comes), it is quite irrelevant. The A350 will not be competing with the 777 for long. The 777 is being super
168 BlackKnight : For those airlines that do not have 777 now. There has been a record amount of 777 sales in the last few years. It will be 12-15 years before these n
169 Iwok : I still think there in no confirmation that the XWB will not have composite barrels. I'm sure Alenia and Vought would be more than willing to supple
170 NAV20 : In commercial terms I see the backlog of 'old new' A350 orders as a millstone round Airbus' neck. It's obvious what the starting-point for negotiatio
171 WingedMigrator : Looking at the A350 through A380-colored glasses is very misleading. The market for twin-aisle widebody aircraft over the next 20 years is north of 5
172 Post contains images Jacobin777 : " target=_blank>http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/a...7.asp ..thanks for the link mate... ...while I'm glad the A350 seems to be getting off its feet
173 Aminobwana : I would amplify the scope of the questions, leaving for the moment the A380 related out: A) Fundamental !! Is the opinion stated by many knowledgeabl
174 WingedMigrator : In your mind, what prevents a subcontractor from baking up some panels, installing them on frames to make barrels, and stuffing said barrels with sys
175 BlackKnight : Let me justify my comment: If a Y3 happens and it is a full barrel design it will obsolete the A350. In a conservative estimate lets say that Y3 is a
176 WingedMigrator : That is a simplistic assumption. I think the panel / barrel thing is a tempest in a teacup, an argument about eking out an extra 1% operating cost sa
177 Bringiton : Only for the -1000 model . The -900 would have a 787-10 to compete with it . I dont think it is as low as 1% however , the real saving is in maintenc
178 JayinKitsap : As I recall, Airbus has produced something like 1,500 widebodies to date and Boeing is approaching 3,000 (assuming it doesn't include McD), the total
179 Post contains images Astuteman : It mysitifes me why people insist on relating monolithic barrel construction with "pre-stuffed" sections. The two are NOT connected. One could do exa
180 Post contains images Scbriml : Is this the same James Wallace that just a couple of days ago caused all the Airbus bashers to get their panties in a wad because of the alleged swit
181 Post contains links Danny : ATW today: Speaking to reporters yesterday via conference call, Leahy said he expects more than 200 orders for the XWB by year end and noted that "the
182 Post contains links and images Keesje : Leahy said Airbus is working now to win a firm contract from Singapore Airlines, which signed a commitment for 20 A350s a year ago. Leahy said he exp
183 Bringiton : Dont the A350-800 and boeing 787-900 have similar ranges ? Or is the MTOW , and/or PAX of the A350-800 more closer to the 787-8 then the 787-9?
184 Post contains links BigSky123 : " target=_blank>http://www.atwonline.com/news/story....=9063 Flight has this story now as well: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...all-composite-b
185 Zvezda : The only way for a larger airliner to obsolete a smaller airliner is to offer equal or lower trip costs (or, hypothetically, greater range or higher
186 NAV20 : Why on Earth - the title has a question-mark on the end? 'A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again)?' Airbus has already changed its mind several t
187 BigSky123 : Agreed. And when or IF that happens again, I'm sure there will be a new thread on here real fast. As for now, all the key people at Airbus are saying
188 NAV20 : BigSky123, another point in the thread's favour is that it has developed into an interesting (and very civil) discussion on whether Airbus' decision i
189 Post contains links Aminobwana : ATW today, lend some support to my statements by writing: "Speaking to reporters yesterday via conference call, Leahy said he expects more than 200 o
190 Danny : The thread is about rumour of Airbus going to composite barrels with XWB. This rumour has now been proven to be false which concludes the topic of th
191 Post contains images Stitch : Nope. It was actually the French and German press who were behind the rumor. And yes, it is probably getting close to time to close this thread as it
192 Beaucaire : This whole barrel-sheet discussion is somewhat ridiculous,since at the bottom line ,airlines are interested to purchase aircraft with decreasing seat-
193 Scbriml : You're confused and misquoting. Al-Baker has said no such thing. Why on Earth would the CEO of QR even remotely be involved in a Qatari Government in
194 Post contains images BigSky123 : NAV20, point well taken. The thread has grown into quite an interesting read. Nevertheless, since we found sources, where Gallois and Leahy dismiss th
195 DAYflyer : It's called the A-319/320 family. And yes, it is selling very well. Between this and the "loans" they will recieve, there will be sufficient funds to
196 SEPilot : Interesting analysis, Aminobwana. If things happened as you say it is not good news for Airbus. As an engineer I have no difficulty in seeing the sup
197 Aminobwana : As you already noticed by what you wrote in the next paragraph, my only confusion (sorry!) was related to the "al....." . Not "al Baker". but Qatari
198 NAV20 : Durability plus less inspection/maintenance, as far as I know. Having owned an aluminium boat and replaced it with a CFRP one, I'd say that's going t
199 Lumberton : IIRD, there have been rumors in the media of Dubai Inc. being interested as well. The Russians have been quite clear that they want a management say
200 Post contains images Scbriml : Maybe he feels very confident about them? If the design wasn't sufficiently frozen, presumably they wouldn't be able to make performance guarantees?
201 SEPilot : This may be true; however the result is going to be an inferior product. When you only have two players in a game voluntarily going for second place
202 Post contains images NAV20 : All I know is, Lumberton, Airbus ain't goin' to get a cent of MY money for the foreseeable future. Short of a guarantee from the French/German govern
203 Post contains images Scbriml : Depends how you define "winning". I'm sure Airbus doesn't think it's "volunteering" for second place. However, if the market is indeed of the order o
204 Dougloid : And, if you were a vendor of those parts and components, the thing you'd be doing right now is having your marketing and sales people pressing Boeing
205 Lumberton : A very valid point IMO. Not only that, but how could a manufacturer afford to cede exclusivity to a competitor in the second largest market segment?
206 Post contains images NAV20 : Just further to that, BigSky123 (I'm in a reflective mood  ) the late, great Geoffrey de Havilland (the most distinguished aeroplane designer the wo
207 Lumberton : I know I'm a minority opinion on this here, but it won't be Tim Clark making this decision. It'll be the al Maktoums; the same al Maktoums who were h
208 SEPilot : The problem, as I see it, is that they will have to fight very hard for every order, and will not be able to charge what they need to to make a reaso
209 OldAeroGuy : Parts for the 3000th Boeing widebody are currently being built. Through the end of April, deliveries were: 747 - 1384 767 - 951 777 - 628 Total - 296
210 Post contains links and images NAV20 : Won a prize once with an essay on 'duopoly.' It was a theory then - developed, oddly enough, by a couple of 19th. Century Frenchmen, Sarkozy should k
211 Post contains links Poitin : Airbus certainly has put themselves in an interesting position of offering what is seen by many -- especially Tim Clark -- an inferior design with hi
212 Ken777 : Are you assuming that the XWB will be a "poor" product? I don't think it will be, regardless of the barrel/panel debate. Airbus will deliver a plane
213 Post contains images Scbriml : Yes, I knew they were close and I picked 3,000 as the next big milestone they would hit. Maybe I should have said "delivered". Either way, my point w
214 Stitch : Honestly, even if the 787 proves to be substantially better then the A350 or the A350 proves to be substantially better then the 787, neither Boeing n
215 Zvezda : As of the end of April, Boeing had delivered 2952 widebodies. Add about 10 for May and perhaps 30 or so that have been built but not yet delivered, a
216 Zvezda : Profitability is more important than market share. (I'm not sure why I can't edit my post above.)
217 Poitin : You are right -- the A350 will sell and may get 30% market share, but at what price? Airbus has to match the 787 sell price and then overcome the pre
218 SEPilot : In comparison to the 787, yes I do. This is of course assuming that the 787 lives up to expectations. But having aluminum frames supporting CFRP pane
219 Scbriml : Yes, see my reply #213.
220 Semobeila : inferior design with higher costs??? [url=http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/3361432/ ]EK A350 Audit A350 Closes Gap On
221 Stitch : If Airbus can make a profit at $102 million - heck, if they can make a profit at the $85 million one of the aircraft valuation companies has rumored
222 Poitin : Yes -- this is a point lost on many. Another is return on assets. If I have a factory that can turn out 1000 widgets at a higher profit than using th
223 SEPilot : This is true, but when you have a product that is perceived to be inferior and is more expensive to produce, how do you get profitability?
224 Post contains images Scbriml : Not my area of expertise (some would argue I don't have one!) Airbus is not setting out to build an inferior plane. But, as others have pointed out,
225 Post contains images NAV20 : With respect, Scrimbl, by not embracing the best new technology, that's exactly what they are doing. I agree that they've been forced into it by circ
226 Zvezda : Unlikely. The 777-300ER might still be winning some top-up orders, but the market for airliners at that size and CASM will be saturated by the A350's
227 SEPilot : It is the airlines that are staying away from the A350 in droves; if it was as good as John Leahy claims they would have a lot more orders than they
228 Post contains links Poitin : Good question. Perhaps it is as Stitch sugggests: However, if they are listing the plane at about $200 Million, I somehow doubt they will make a prof
229 Post contains images Stitch : Well, if the market by 2013 is saturated with 772LRs and 773ERs to be delivered, I probably won't take that bet. But then, I'll never remember anyway
230 CygnusChicago : 1) What is the cost of building a 787? 2) What is the cost of build an A350?
231 DAYflyer : I know that they had intented to seek the launch aid. Has it been formally rejected? I had not heard so.
232 Scbriml : In the end, the airlines will decide. We'll have to wait and see. Yes, Boeing has a very nice lead, but only 10% of the market has currently been pur
233 Poitin : This is true, they go by the numbers, and Tim Clark said that the 40% lower maintenance costs are compelling. First of all, you can usually place the
234 SEPilot : I don't have figures, but there is substantial labor required for joining the panels on the A350 that won't be required on the 787. I cannot see anyt
235 Danny : Simply speaking your assumptions, beliefs and imagination.
236 SEPilot : True, but I do have extensive experience in other fields to back them up. When you come down to it, most on this forum are doing the same. I never cl
237 Post contains links ANCFlyer : Continue here please A350XWB - Back To The Drawing Board (again) Pt 2 (by ANCFlyer May 31 2007 in Civil Aviation) Any posts to this thread added after
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