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Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380  
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 15022 times:


NARITA, Japan (XFN-ASIA) - Airbus is confident of winning orders for its A380 superjumbo from airlines in Japan, an official at the European aerospace firm said here.

An A380 took to the skies above Japan Tuesday with senior officials from Japanese carriers, Airbus's industrial partners and the government on board for a demonstration flight of the double-decker airplane.

'It was very positive. I am sure that we are going to succeed in selling this plane in Japan,' said Richard Carcaillet, marketing director for the A380, adding that the aircraft was 'made for Japan.'
....
Carcaillet insisted that the A380 interested Japanese airlines, saying they were studying the new plane.

The A380 development aircraft arrived at Narita International Airport near Tokyo on Monday. It will leave Japan on Wednesday for Sydney before heading to Taipei on Friday as part of a series of demonstration flights.

http://www.hemscott.com/news/latest-news/item.do?newsId=44770739292294

Numerous people argued JAL and ANA will probably never buy A380s.

I think in general claiming this for huge 747 operators doing hub operations from severly slot restricted airports it always somehow seems a risky pronoses..



193 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offline2wingtips From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 14977 times:

Then why are both NH/JL reducing their 747 fleets and concentrating on frequency and higher yields with 777s and soon to be 787s. Bloody Airbus are confident about selling all their planes to anybody. After all the talk of new A380 customers, Gallois admitted today no new customers are likely until revenue service begins. Looks like BA will go with the 748I!

User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 14932 times:

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Then why are both NH/JL reducing their 747 fleets and concentrating on frequency and higher yields with 777s and soon to be 787s

Are they planning on replacing 747s with 787s?

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
no new customers are likely until revenue service begins.

Thats very possible.

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Looks like BA will go with the 748I!

Not exactly.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 14856 times:

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Bloody Airbus

Pls don't take it personal.

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Gallois admitted today no new customers are likely until revenue service begins.

True, that is still several months away.

BA will order.. when?


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6824 posts, RR: 46
Reply 4, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 14856 times:

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Bloody Airbus are confident about selling all their planes to anybody.

I would say that Airbus execs are very talented at hearing what they want to hear, hence the A380 in the first place, plus not realizing until it was staring them in the face that they had SERIOUS problems on their hands building the darn thing. Pardon me if I believe it when the Japanese airlines order it.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30553 posts, RR: 84
Reply 5, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 14725 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Well 20 years is a long time, so it would be prudent to "never say never". Also, it could be that a new Japanese start-up comes onto the scene in the next decade that, like IT, would take some A388s, even if NH and JL never do.

User currently offlineKL808 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1584 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 14683 times:

In my opinion that if a Japanese carrier is to order A380's I think it would be NH.

Drew



AMS-LAX-MNL
User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2824 posts, RR: 42
Reply 7, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 14667 times:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):

Numerous people argued JAL and ANA will probably never buy A380s.

Including JAL and ANA themselves. They wobble now and then and look at it, but then usally make large 777 and 787 orders and tell people that the 744's are leaving the fleet.


User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 14654 times:

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 4):
Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Bloody Airbus are confident about selling all their planes to anybody.

I would say that Airbus execs are very talented at hearing what they want to hear

.......and many a.netters are very talented at believing what they want to believe  Yeah sure

Quoting KL808 (Reply 6):
In my opinion that if a Japanese carrier is to order A380's I think it would be NH.

NH have said something along the lines of, they will wait until it enters service as they may need it to compete with other airlines that have it.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 14640 times:

I think on the Pacific JAL, UA and NWA and the upcoming Chinese carriers are looking at what will happen.
They have no desire to spend billions on aircraft if they don't have to.

Europe - Japan is a different situation. It's not a question if but how many A380 will enter the Japanese market & what will be the consequences. Both JAL & ANA will take the necessary steps to defend their position. Both have communicated this.

Worldwide traffic is growing 5% per year. Asia even faster. You can't add half a flight daily to LHR..



[Edited 2007-06-05 17:00:01]

User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6824 posts, RR: 46
Reply 10, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 14553 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
Europe - Japan is a diffrent situation. It's not a question if but how many A380 will enter the Japanese market & what will be the consequences. Both AJL & ANA will take the neccesary steps to defend their position. Both have communicated this.

Worldwide traffic is growing 5% per year. Asia even faster. You can't add half a flight daily to LHR..

 checkmark 
Very true; and if the traffic and economics warrant it they will probably both buy them. My scepticism is based on the fact that both are getting rid of 747's. But things certainly can change.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 11, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 14519 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):

Worldwide traffic is growing 5% per year

..and not in every airport or destination..you always conveniently drop that fact...

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
Europe - Japan is a diffrent situation. It's not a question if but how many A380 will enter the Japanese market & what will be the consequences. Both AJL & ANA will take the neccesary steps to defend their position. Both have communicated this.

..then why are they downguaging planes to a B773ER on two of the most slot-restricted airport pairs in the world?



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineDanny From Poland, joined Apr 2002, 3508 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 14470 times:

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 10):
My scepticism is based on the fact that both are getting rid of 747's.

Many carriers are getting rid of 747 as this 40 year old design has become obsolete. SQ is doing that as well and looking at short term one could claim that SQ is replacing 744 with 773 but if you look at the whole picture it looks very different.


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 13, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 14388 times:

Quoting Danny (Reply 12):
Many carriers are getting rid of 747 as this 40 year old design has become obsolete.

..that argument doesn't hold up because neither VLA's are gathering too many orders...and the A380 has an added problem (for now at least) of not offering a freighter version...



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 14389 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
..then why are they downguaging planes to a B773ER on two of the most slot-restricted airport pairs in the world?

I've seen this argument many times in recent years. 747 replaced by 773ER so the trend is getting smaller aircraft.

Many flag carriers ordering A380's and Boeing stretching its 747-8i didn't stop the theory.

The simple fact the 777-300ER was the next available biggest aircraft may somehow have played a role..

Probably no "downguaging", airlines couldn't buy anything else but 773 or A346 to replace 747s..

Many 747's will be replaced by A380's from now on. Some not.



Stating Emirates & Qatar are "Upgaughing" from A330s to A380's is an equally skew intrepetation of facts.

[Edited 2007-06-05 17:19:36]

User currently offlineJimyvr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 14389 times:

Keep in mind that when Haneda Airport opens its 4th runway in 2010, it opens up at least 300000 annual slots ( I think that's the number). That eases the slot problem. It also opens up to more short-haul flights which will be expected to be transferred from Narita, that will also help to ease the slot congestion in Tokyo.

While NRT slots are critical to foreign carriers thus seeing the need of sending A380, the Japanese carriers don't really have the pressure.


User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 14374 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Then why are both NH/JL reducing their 747 fleets and concentrating on frequency and higher yields with 777s and soon to be 787s

Are they planning on replacing 747s with 787s?

Can somebody answer this?

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):

Worldwide traffic is growing 5% per year

..and not in every airport or destination..you always conveniently drop that fact...

And he also added that Asian traffic is growing at a faster rate. I would be interested to know how mmuch Japanese traffic is growing by.

Quoting Danny (Reply 12):
Quoting SEPilot (Reply 10):
My scepticism is based on the fact that both are getting rid of 747's.

Many carriers are getting rid of 747 as this 40 year old design has become obsolete.

Apart from that, I think that the lower cost per seat of the 777-300ER is very attractive. I dont believe that airlines like JL & NH are replacing 747s with 773s because they are unable to fill the 747s, especially with traffic rising year on year.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 14293 times:

Quoting Danny (Reply 12):
SQ is doing that as well and looking at short term one could claim that SQ is replacing 744 with 773 but if you look at the whole picture it looks very different.

I think SQ has the size and purchasing power to make a fleet composition that fits all there regional and internation network ambitions. It's not an A or B. In the next 10 yrs the SQ fleet will consist of 787, a350, 747s, a380, 777's, a330 each fullfilling specific network requirements.



User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21474 posts, RR: 60
Reply 18, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 14211 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
You can't add half a flight daily to LHR.

True, but they seem to be okay with dropping 1/2 a flight and going to high premium 77W aircraft.

Unless someone can show a compelling financial reason to use a high Y + decreased cargo A380 to a route other than LHR, I'll still stick with the fact this is AIRBUS saying this, and not JL and NH. After all, Boeing has said that 20 customers are interested in the 748i. Hasn't happened yet...

NRT is restricted, but NH and JL have most of the slots there. As Haneda expands, the need for more slots at NRT decreases, and since many airports in Japan have or are looking to ban quads, the A380 would have a very, very limited role for a Japanese carrier.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 14177 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 18):
NRT is restricted, but NH and JL have most of the slots there. As Haneda expands, the need for more slots at NRT decreases, and since many airports in Japan have or are looking to ban quads, the A380 would have a very, very limited role for a Japanese carrier.

? An 380 is more quiet then a 777. Or does it have nothing to do with noise?


User currently offlineCloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined exactly 9 years ago today! , 2454 posts, RR: 10
Reply 20, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 14157 times:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
n A380 took to the skies above Japan Tuesday with senior officials from Japanese carriers, Airbus's industrial partners and the government on board for a demonstration flight of the double-decker airplane.

'It was very positive. I am sure that we are going to succeed in selling this plane in Japan,' said Richard Carcaillet, marketing director for the A380, adding that the aircraft was 'made for Japan.'

One of the things the Japanese are very good at is to make you feel very welcomed - they talk positive and agree wih whatever you say - despite they might be cursing you deep down in their heart and never return your calls afterwards...



A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
User currently offlineTravelin man From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 3473 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 14053 times:

Instead of hearing from the Airbus salesman (who will of course say the airlines are interested, much as a Boeing salesman would say the same thing), it would be interesting to hear from the actual Japanese airlines.

User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 14019 times:

Of course they like it. What's not to like? It's a very big, nice, advanced, new airplane. The question remains, do they see a use for it?? Just because I like shiny new 18 wheelers doesn't mean I will go out and buy some without a plan for using them.


One Nation Under God
User currently offlineDallasnewark From Estonia, joined Nov 2005, 495 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks ago) and read 13899 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
Europe - Japan is a different situation. It's not a question if but how many A380 will enter the Japanese market & what will be the consequences. Both JAL & ANA will take the necessary steps to defend their position. Both have communicated this.

And both JAL and ANA will fly 5 times daily between NRT-AMS.

Holland will finally win the world cup.

Keesje would be made the COO of EADS.


Dude, come out of the fantasy world of yours. Can you let it go even once when someone pointed out correctly that the Airbus salesman's quote was a hogwash. Boeing's salespeople aren't better either, they make unrealistic predictions as well, but come on, or do you think it is your duty to defend every moronic statement the aircraft manufacturer states



B732/3/4/5/6/7/8/9, B742/4, B752/3,B762/3/4, B772/3, A306, A318/9/20/21, A332/3, A343/6, MD80/83/88, L1011, TU104/134, F
User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks ago) and read 13894 times:

Quoting Travelin man (Reply 23):
Instead of hearing from the Airbus salesman (who will of course say the airlines are interested, much as a Boeing salesman would say the same thing), it would be interesting to hear from the actual Japanese airlines

Some on this forum don't want to bother with that little thing like"...what do the airlines have to say?..." I mean, you know John Leahy can walk on water, can't he?  Wink

The Japanese airlines have already stated that they PLAN to use 773ER's and 787's for the near future. Unlike others in the industry, NH and JAL usually plan 10 to 20 years from now. They are not very flexible. That is why it has taken JAL so long to get out of the spin that it found itself in! What should it tell you when the LARGEST operator of the 747 has said it does not plan to order anymore VLA's in the near future?  Yeah sure


25 EI321 : ANA commented a while back: Sorry I dont have a link, but thats essentially what the ANA chief said in an interview a while ago. Personally Im not co
26 BlackKnight : Japan is far different from the EU. Japan can still build new airports in the mist of environmental concerns while the EU can not. Japan and China hav
27 NA : Without ordering A380s (or 748Is) Japanese Airlines won´t be really competitive on some routes where the fiercest opponents do.
28 Dallasnewark : You think that a bigger plane makes you more competetive? Most of the flying public will not tell the difference between the plane types once they ar
29 Travelin man : Disagree. If the sizes of the Premium cabins are similar, and the Japanese carriers are just giving up seats at the "back of the bus", the Japanese c
30 Post contains images Ikramerica : Tell me about it. I was "invited" to tour an animation company in Japan. I brought the requisite gifts and was given a very nice tour by the vice-pre
31 Dallasnewark : If I may add, loyalty is more improtant to them than a savings of a few bucks here there, that is just part of the culture. Knowing that, Airbus' cha
32 DAYflyer : Knowing this, how can they (Airbus) ever build any brand loyalty if nobody buys it? Sounds like a cultural catch 22.
33 Jimyvr : Competitive on what level? Japanese carriers are pretty much focusing on yield control rather than capacity control.
34 Ikramerica : Not to mention the extra $75 million book cost of each A380 vs. 77W, and the likely higher resale value (as a percentage) of the 77W vs. the A380. I
35 Post contains images EI321 : The book cost of a 77W: $640,000 per seat (375 seats** @ $240m) The book cost of an A380: $561,000 per seat (525 seats @ $296m) The book cost of a 74
36 Post contains images Solnabo : What utter nonsens! JAL n ANA will never ever order the A380 Pax or Freighter That would be a big blow to Boeing and 748I and no one want that to happ
37 Don : Probably a classic case of double "Lost in Translation" , French guy speking in English to Japanese buyers. And having worked in Japan for many years
38 EI321 : But Leahy ain't French![Edited 2007-06-05 19:47:23]
39 Ikramerica : The A380 is $317 million now, at least that's the quote in recent articles about the aircraft. $275 million is a very old number. Airbus was cited la
40 BlackKnight : By his actions, what he eats, sleeps, drinks and says he is Airbus. He is no longer from a country so because Airbus is mostly France so should he be
41 Zvezda : Yes. Not exactly??? BA will either order the 747-8 or not. It's a binary solution set. How can someone be "not exactly" pregnant? SQ plan to retire t
42 Post contains links EI321 : Ok, I've rechecked the figures, so lets adjust. $316m is the topping out price for an A380. The actual range is $296-$316m For the 777-300ER its $236
43 SEPilot : But, as Zvesda points out, what matters most is yield per seat.
44 CygnusChicago : Really? I don't know this - please explain.
45 Post contains links Columba : Well ANA is still a possibility: They have publically stated in 2006 that they don't rule out the A380 completely: http://www.flightglobal.com/article
46 Jimyvr : Why bother order one more aircraft type when they already stuff 500 seats in 773?
47 BlackKnight : This is an insider view shared in certain circles. Short version. Setup- 1)He has loads of talent for selling. He could sell anything really. Why the
48 Ikramerica : I agree it is too large for NH, and it might be too large for JL, but not positive it is. NH has the one who's been much more vocal about the 77W bei
49 Post contains links and images Revelation : Tell that to the farmer who won't sell his land and so is blocking the runway expansion at Narita... View Large View MediumPhoto © TriplET
50 FlyDreamliner : There was an interview posted on her by the ceo of ANA saying that their strategy was to move to smaller aircraft to swing back to reliable profitabi
51 CygnusChicago : I still don't see how you can say "American things leave a bad taste in his mouth"? To me, he seems just like many other Americans that work for majo
52 Widebodyphotog : Agreed for the most part but ANA while seeming to leave the door open is really not interested in the A380. JAL has no money and may not be able to f
53 Jimyvr : You forgot the fact that UA was among the team of 17 airlines that helped to create the early A3XX project
54 Post contains links EGNR : The 748 is only available with GE's Genex egnines. Northwest have selected the RR Trent 1000 to power its 787 fleet. link
55 Post contains images MCIGuy : Right, the 748 is a relatively cheap derivative 'cause Boeing didn't see the wisdom in an all-new VLA. Only the most optimistic don't see a HUGE over
56 Post contains links Keesje : I think anyone still using these seat counts does so with a determined goal. The A380 has about 35% useable floor space. . LH seatcount for both a380
57 Zvezda : I don't believe that 65% of the WhaleJet's floor space is unusable.
58 Danny : Absolute rubbish.
59 Spacecadet : No company ever "rules out" anything. All they do is make decisions based on their current plans. Even if they *say* they "rule out" something, that
60 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...and its the one which has been standing up to scrutiny... ....how many of both have sold the past 7 years? Take the B748I LH order and the EK A380
61 NYC777 : This coming from the same people who said that a re-engined A332 could beat the 787!
62 NA : Don´t underestimate the average passenger! You usually see it from the outside before you enter it, don´t you? Most people I know are not aviation
63 Post contains images Keesje : Jacobin777, I tried to reread carefully but still don´t know what you mean about VLA orders during the last 7 yrs? Now (http://www.flightglobal.com/
64 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I'll give him some credit, but I don't think he's "brilliant" even one bit.....he's sold phenomenal planes which have practically sold for themselves
65 Aerokiwi : According to ANA's fleet plans for the next ten years, it wil be a 737, 787 and 777 fleet. That is the only concrete official announcement I have see
66 Post contains images Keesje : Again Jacobin777, I think we are looking at different realities. Airbus has had its problems last year. The US media endlessly keeps repeating & summ
67 Zvezda : JL and NH bought 787-3s to replace 747-400Ds (obviously not on a one-for-one basis). Get over it. WhaleJet customers are replacing only a fraction of
68 XT6Wagon : Its funny how "just a few more years" will prove the A380 the champion of the world... While ignoring that the 747 is outselling the A380 since the A3
69 Buddys747 : What? It can't be too obsolete since there are still orders coming in. Yes they are not being replaced 1 for 1 anymore, but it is far from obsolete.
70 Post contains images Jacobin777 : .....there can only be one reality my friend....sales for the A340NG have practically dried up while B77W/B77F sales have been phenomenal. Not to men
71 Post contains links Centrair : I usually stay very clear of these debates but I want to share my opinion. NH though they have said they are going 100% Boeing and will be removing th
72 XT6Wagon : It might happen given that there is definitely a group of slots that the airlines desire more than others for thier international flights. Couple tha
73 Carpethead : Simple statement, but of course all of us wouldn't be having this argument. Welcome to my RU List. Ask JL what's going to replace a dozen or so 747 c
74 Glacote : Isn't the B773ER just a more cost-effective solution given the current price of oil?
75 Jacobin777 : ....I would say the early morning slots might be a possibility with all of the B744's coming it..but I still don't see 10 in a row as a possibility..
76 Zvezda : The 777-300ER allows them to concentrate on the higher yield passengers and minimize their risk.
77 Post contains images EI321 : Perhaps I should rephrase for the context of this thread. Apart from the 747 Domestic, are they planning on replacing 747's with 787s. The A380 is no
78 Stitch : LH may be trading capacity for range to allow their 748s to fly longer stage lengths then the "trunk route" A388s. Especially since LH wanted the lon
79 EI321 : I doubt it. The 747-8 has more range than the 747-400, A340-300 and A340-600. Ranges (fully loaded): 747-800 / 474 passengers / 8,000 nm 747-400 / 41
80 JoFMO : It is not nonstop anymore. Since one year they hae a stop-over in GRU.
81 Stitch : Then maybe it is door #2. On the flip side, it does help explain why the A388 has a half-cent lower seat cost per kilometer then the 748 since it car
82 Columba : Could be one possibilty.
83 Congaboy : Anyone who has done business with the Japanese see this very polite approach, as Cloudyapple says...this is spot on, and I believe Airbus is reading
84 Zvezda : I think the timeline runs in the other direction. Prior to the opening of KIX, the WhaleJet would have been good for JL and NH. Now, with both KIX an
85 Poitin : Very true. Everyone thinks the Japanese word "Hi" means "Yes". It really means "Yes, I heard your point." There is a old saying about dealing with th
86 NA : I remember seeing an ANA-fleetplan that has the 777 as the interim solution, but in the longer term the flagship position is left open. Let´s see wh
87 Congaboy : That's a long time, dude...but you certainly present a reasonable scenario in that the optimal time has passed. Which makes the Airbus statement even
88 NorCal : US carriers like DL, CO, and AA have been flying 777-200ERs against carriers with much larger 747-400s successfully. The wow factor doesn't really ap
89 Zvezda : The future lasts a long time.
90 Widebodyphotog : Bingo! Well said. The relief valve airports have opened up and the fact of the matter is that as time goes on NRT will become a less and less promine
91 Jacobin777 : "wow" factor lasts a few weeks, maybe a few months..if that.....
92 EI321 : I dont believe the wow factor applies at all. Its just an after thought, once economics are out of the way.
93 Zvezda : Thank you for the kind words. Coming from you, that means a lot. To put it another way, the Japanese market is one of the best examples of fragmentat
94 Danny : How successful American carriers against competition is another debate however you need to notice that 777 is much newer and more efficient plane tha
95 Zvezda : No, the 747-400 is far more efficient (lower CASM) than the 777-200ER and a bit more efficient than the 777-300ER but didn't sell well against them b
96 Dallasnewark : Flying A380 will be inconvinient at best from several perspectives: 1. Boarding - Anyone who flown EWR-FRA on LH's 747 knows their notoriously long b
97 Jacobin777 : ....why?
98 NorCal : American carriers do very well on international routes. This is where they make all of their money, but they subsequently lose it while trying to com
99 Zvezda : Yes, the WhaleJet has very poor cargo capacity. The passenger bags will fill much of the cargo hold.
100 Danny : Can you let us know what is the CASM of 787-10? And for what airline your figure is? BTW Have they launched it yet?
101 Post contains images Flysherwood : I've seen the pictures from the LH A380 test run to the US. I don't see much difference in the cabin / interior of the A380 and an A330! The general
102 Post contains images Flysherwood : Yes, won't it be fun to arrive at CDG, AMS, LHR, FRA, MAD, HKG or NRT at the same time as an A380, especially if you are a NON-EU, NON-Chinese or NON
103 NA : As I said, don´t underestimate the average passenger. My brother for instance, who is no aviation buff at all but has more longhaul flight than me,
104 Ikramerica : Dude give it a rest. We know these numbers aren't realistic, but your reinterpretation and the ones that others have done are also not realistic. For
105 Poitin : [quote=Flysherwood,reply=102]Quoting Dallasnewark (Reply 96): 3. Novelty Factor - gone within 6 months. A380 will be just another plane with the only
106 Post contains images Flysherwood : What is Immigration and Customs like in Dubai for Non UAE passport holders? Do they staff the lines with a lot of officers? Just curious. Because I wo
107 Post contains images Flysherwood : With all of those seats to fill on a daily basis, you better hope the WOW-factor is more than 2-3%!
108 Zvezda : EK have 47 WhaleJets on order, plus 2 more to be leased. However, nearly everyone is connecting to another flight. Only a fraction from each flight w
109 Post contains links Keesje : Why. Look out of your window see that upperdeck? For years I´ve said the A380 has about 35% more seats then the 747-8i. You remember: http://www.air
110 Post contains images Flysherwood : Wait a minute!!! We just had a discussion about this last week. Many on here imply that Dubai will be on par with Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Sing
111 Flysherwood : I have a good example for you to look at. Over a year ago, JAL stopped flying to SPN. Mind you, at one time there were 4 747's flying NRT - SPN at on
112 Zvezda : I'm surprised that JL have only three daily NRT-PVG flights. They would have higher RASM and lower CASM if they were to switch to four daily 787 flig
113 Flysherwood : I think the PRC government controls the numbers pretty tightly.
114 Dallasnewark : You will need to come in the morning, board the A380, leave in the afternoon, and by the time you clear immigration in PVG and collect your luggage,
115 Post contains images Flysherwood :
116 Jacobin777 : ...no...that is a canard, only a few (if that) were implying your incorrect statement...
117 FlyDreamliner : My mistake, thanks for the correction. For whatever reason, I thought it was GEnx powered. I must have been thinking of CO's 787s. Not only can it be
118 Post contains links Travelin man : Nobody has brought this up, but Japan's population is also expected to decrease over the next few decades. http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-newest/e/ppfj02/su
119 UA772IAD : That might have been true 15 years ago, but doesn't KIX have some of the highest landing fees in the world? That airport was plagued by problems when
120 Post contains images Flysherwood : Baggage for an EK A380 loaded with 600 passengers is still baggage for 600 people. At the very least that will be 1200 pieces of luggage of various s
121 Zvezda : I don't see a lot of airlines, particularly Japanese airlines, buying WhaleJets to replace 757s and A321s.
122 Post contains images Keesje : I think you are right with the assumptions - only Japanese fly from / to Narita - the trend people fly more / further for holidays stops - japan air
123 Post contains images Flysherwood : Back to the topic, I have three big Japanese construction companies that I sell to. When I have something to offer, I bring it to their attention. In
124 Dallasnewark : That is an incorrect assumption promoted by the marketing teams of both Boeing and Airbus A major recession wil dwindle the number of worldwide passe
125 Post contains images CygnusChicago : Hmmm, note to self, never hire Flysherwood as a salesman Wait, but as I understand it, no one is going to be able to fill their A380s, so this won't
126 FlyDreamliner : On A340-600 vs 773ER, keep in mind some of A340-600's cargo space is compromised by having to locate the crew rest down there, additionally 773ER has
127 Carpethead : JL is upping to four dailies, with none or just one being flown with a 744: two morning, one afternoon, and one evening runs out of NRT.
128 Aaron747 : Nothing will happen. Japanese travelers prefer JAL and ANA by a long shot over any foreign competition. They're not going to make their choice of tic
129 Ikramerica : It's not about in service seating. It's about "book numbers" because that's all we have to go on when comparing range and payload. At 8000nm, each ma
130 SunriseValley : On the matter of baseline, my argument has always been ; what is the payload for a passenger ready type for the ESAD of a city pair? Very few carrier
131 Wsp : Immigration in Dubai is in my experience a non-event. The capacity there is huge and they seem to adjust the number of open lines quickly according t
132 Post contains images Flysherwood : I'd like to see you sell an american product to the triple giants of the Japanese construction industry. Besides, Cygnuschicago, I get to do the hiri
133 Post contains links and images Keesje : It´s like buying ahouse. Every owner can deterrmine what to put into it. In both my house and in widebody aircraft I managed cabin reconfigurations.
134 Stitch : It has 44 LD3 positions.
135 Aaron747 : Japanese who travel with other airlines generally do so for one of only two reasons. a. the Japanese carrier for the flight they want is either fully
136 Post contains images CygnusChicago : Then maybe you should fire your sales people ... and maybe you should search for that thread, re-read it and not put words in my mouth
137 Post contains links Aerokiwi : If you look at this interview with the ANA President and CEO http://www.ana.co.jp/eng/aboutana/corporate/ir/pdf/annual/06/06_08.pdf you see that a. t
138 Glacote : The A388 has more than 25% more usable floor space - yes, even accouning for walls curvature et alii. What's the difference again between one A388 de
139 Jacobin777 : ...the A380 is a very poor pax+cargo plane..... ""The A380F may be destined to be the biggest conventional freighter on the market, but its passenger
140 XT6Wagon : Its not "usable" if the airline say... has standard 17.2" seats across the fleet, but the wider airplane CAN'T fit any extra seats per row. For examp
141 Zvezda : I agree. Cabin floor area is the best of the simple metrics. It's always reasonably close. Cabin length x seats per row in the normal airline configu
142 XT6Wagon : They already have one. They can't avoid one. I think its pointless to try to sell everything to everyone instead of focusing on selling the best you
143 UA772IAD : You've lost me. My point was, containerized loads are faster to unload from when the time the chocks are set to when the first bags enter the claim a
144 Zvezda : My point was that, while both true and interesting, this is irrelevant to the question of this thread.
145 Stitch : I do not believe Airbus can fit that configuration into the current A350's cabin width and still have reasonable (if not certification industry minim
146 Columba : Well Airbus has sold a few A320s and A300s to Japan already I guess they are quite aware of Japanese customs.[Edited 2007-06-07 15:58:10]
147 Poitin : Absolutely true. To sell to the Japanese in Japan is an uphill battle, in which you must have a clearly superior product at a very competitive price.
148 Post contains links and images Keesje : I hope your not booked for flamebaith. I think we have discussed these holes before. They have always been there on both sides. I agree 16.5 seats wi
149 Aaron747 : Taihen da ne... Good luck on that goal...but even luck won't be enough considering JAL is nowhere near coming out of their slide.
150 Zvezda : If Airbus want to sell to JL and NH, they should be pitching the A350, not the WhaleJet. The A350 would be a good fit at the upper end.
151 Post contains images Danny : Are you sure? I think it would be too big for them. Per your theory they should get ERJ-145ULR and connect every village in Japan with every village
152 Post contains images Zvezda : No, you didn't read Zvezda's First Law carefully. The CASM of an ERJ would be too high for connecting every village in Japan to every village in Euro
153 Poitin : That Danny, is what is call a reductio ad absurdum -- a rhetorical ploy to discredit another's argument by the reducing it to absurd levels. But for
154 Danny : Sorry if I misunderstood you. So you say CASM is the ultimate decision factor? If (hypothetically) I was able to offer you 50 seat RJ with CASM lower
155 Zvezda : CASM, size, and range are the primary characteristics by which airliners compete for sales. Take any currently competitive airliner and either lower
156 Joni : Like having economy and premium economy?
157 Danny : I see we are getting closer to agreement. You recognized that larger aircraft have lower CASM as cost is speaded over larger number of seats. Now wha
158 XT6Wagon : Quite, with the recent addition of 5" of width and a re-profile to keep width longer as you go up in the cabin, it has packed on a good bit more fron
159 Zvezda : That's not always true. The 787-10 and A350-1000 will have lower CASM at the same seating densities than the WhaleJet and the 747-8 SuperJumbo. That
160 Danny : True to some extent but there are a few difficulties with that: 1. It is still possible to increase number of seats on A380 by making it 11-abreast w
161 Post contains images Flysherwood : Why? In the real world, having that kind of a hit rate with, again, the three giants of the construction industry in Japan is extremely good and quit
162 Zvezda : Not with reasonable seats. No, that's part of CASM. In reality, it is nearly (but not quite) always possible. Frequencies are, in fact, increasing.
163 Poitin : That assumes you can sell the same ticket price on the 11-abreast seating as 10. As you decrease the size of the seat and spacing, you are going to h
164 Ikramerica : That doesn't matter. The only way that would matter is if you put 9Y in the 747 to match comfort. Keesje has tried that argument, too. There is no do
165 Post contains images Flysherwood : And they probably will continue to sell some A320's. But they are not going to sell the A380 to either JL or NH. Airbus will get the proverbial "...m
166 BigJKU : Sure they can fill them, you can fill anything by keeping prices low enough. The question is can you fill it and make money? Or more importantly, can
167 Post contains images Flysherwood : I agree with you totally here. That's why I asked about Dubai as I have never been. My point also is that as it is not a failure of the 747 as you sa
168 Danny : You can't have it both ways. If you add it to your casm then 787 casm will change unfavourably versus A380. No matter what you do, airspace will not
169 Poitin : There are at this time a number of "routes" over Russia, carefully controlled by them for "security" reasons. If they were to allow more routes, whic
170 Post contains images Flysherwood : The subject of this thread would be like Boeing sending a VP to Aer Lingus or Iberia and pitching the 747-8I in earnest. Of course they may send him,
171 Glideslope : Which is precisely what myself and many others have been saying for the last 18 months. No new operator is going to buy this airframe until they see
172 Post contains images Flysherwood : The JL 744's that were going to SPN were packed to the gills every single day. They had it in a high density layout. And they still were losing money
173 Wsp : The large hubs have the potential to even out passenger flows from several incoming aircraft. But even those who use that still have absurd queues du
174 Flysherwood : You are probably very correct on this. However, there is one other scenario, people avoid hub to hub flights and go hub to destination whenever it is
175 XT6Wagon : I think given the structure of allowed flights, many if not most Airlines will attempt to make as many international desitnations avalible to thier cu
176 Post contains images Keesje : I think keeping saying this is getting a bit outdated. I believe more then 50 pilots from different airlines have been at the A380 controls. Flight s
177 Post contains images Flysherwood : Where are the upperdeck windows on those frames?
178 SEPilot : If they were packed to the gills every day why couldn't they raise the fares to where they could make money?
179 Post contains images Stitch : These are the A388 Combis. Seriously, they're lost in the glare from the upper fuselage. You can see a few at the very back of the 2nd and 3rd birds.
180 Post contains links Keesje : They temporary removed them for the photo.. or it was the sun blinding them.. http://www.futura-sciences.com/galer...hotos/data/547/A380_formation2.j
181 Flysherwood : Because they would not be packed anymore? I believe they charged the most that this route could ever bare. NWA and CO both fly the route as well and
182 Carpethead : Its called the 763ER & 787, for now at least. They probably made only a few bucks off of each pax. Not hard to conclude how much JL's share is when e
183 Post contains images Flysherwood : I am thinking you mean the 773ER and the 787. The last couple of times I was in SPN before JL pulled out, I saw 744's. My mistake if they did not use
184 Post contains images Poitin : They are actually all the same aircraft. If you want, I could produce a Photoshop image with 20 or 30 A 380s.
185 Post contains links Wsp : This is the caption to the picture from the Airbus multimedia section: Here is another one http://www.airbus.com/store/photolib...object_image_lowres
186 Post contains images Flysherwood : I believe he wrote that with "...tongue in cheek.". You know, a joke!!!
187 Post contains images Wsp : Thats what you say. In my mind he was just trying to show off his photoshopping skills.
188 Post contains images Poitin : My Photoshop skills are good, but not great. The image you are so proud of is an obvious Photoshop effort, which anyone with a year or so experience
189 Glacote : Point taken on the width. Now assuming 10Y and the same pitch as in the B748i do we what the numbers are? Unless one would argue that the increase wi
190 Post contains links GBan : http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xzuwr_4-a380-en-formation How many years of photoshop experience does one need to do the corresponding video?
191 Post contains links Poitin : Photoshop is a image only package. However, I was creating better videos than that 15 years ago when I worked at SGI. I suggest you go to just about
192 Post contains images GBan : Thanks, I know that, and I even knew that they didn't hire dinosaurs for Jurrassic Parc - that was not the point of my post Both video and photos of
193 Wsp : Hmm, it seems he was actually serious about it... I am not sure how you read into my message that I am "so proud of" the picture. Anyway Airbus label
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