Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
AA 787 order in 2009, a pilot's opinion   
User currently offlineAA787823 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 13882 times:

Speaking to a cheif pilot today. He does not believe AA will order the 787 till 2009 at the earliest. Most likely not untill 2010 or so. AA has negotiaitions starting with all three AA union in 2008, AA will have its hands full. Assuming that agreements are reached in 2008 with the unions then AA will know what it is spending in the future on labor.
Remember the 777 was in service almost 5 years before AA placed its first order.

50 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFloris From Netherlands, joined Jun 2003, 243 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 13793 times:

It never ceases to amaze me how many topics on this forum have titles that state things like a fact, whereby they turn out to be nothing more then speculation or somebody's personal opinion.

User currently offlineAA787823 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 13754 times:

Quoting Floris (Reply 1):
It never ceases to amaze me how many topics on this forum have titles that state things like a fact, whereby they turn out to be nothing more then speculation or somebody's personal opinion.

Given AA's current financial situation and the fact they are going into union negotiations, its more likely than not that AA will not order the 787 any time soon. UA DL have not ordered either....


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 3, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 13711 times:

Quoting AA787823 (Thread starter):
Speaking to a cheif pilot today. He does not believe AA will order the 787 till 2009 at the earliest. Most likely not untill 2010 or so. AA has negotiaitions starting with all three AA union in 2008, AA will have its hands full. Assuming that agreements are reached in 2008 with the unions then AA will know what it is spending in the future on labor.
Remember the 777 was in service almost 5 years before AA placed its first order.

..a little trip to BK court to renegotiate over-priced union workers and their contracts as well as wipe off a few billion in debt would take care of some things.... Smile

....just taking the piss (aside from the over-priced union workers)



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21582 posts, RR: 59
Reply 4, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 13492 times:

Quoting Floris (Reply 1):
It never ceases to amaze me how many topics on this forum have titles that state things like a fact, whereby they turn out to be nothing more then speculation or somebody's personal opinion.

And how wrong the people who "talk to chief pilots" end up being.

AA can't afford to wait 3 years to order the 787. Well, I guess they could order 20 77L to tide them over, but I doubt it.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineAA787823 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 13434 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
AA can't afford to wait 3 years to order the 787.

AA does not have the $$$ to spend either on new airplanes. Consider AA is investing $$$$ in refurbishing 757/762/763 it really goes to show that AA plans on having these airplanes around for the forseeable future.


User currently offlineMirrodie From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 7444 posts, RR: 62
Reply 6, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 13410 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 5):
AA does not have the $$$ to spend either on new airplanes. Consider AA is investing $$$$ in refurbishing 757/762/763 it really goes to show that AA plans on having these airplanes around for the forseeable future.

Unless you have facts to back up your statements, I suggest that you state that you are speculating.



Forum moderator 2001-2010; He's a pedantic, pontificating, pretentious bastard, a belligerent old fart, a worthless st
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21582 posts, RR: 59
Reply 7, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 13410 times:

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 5):
AA does not have the $$$ to spend either on new airplanes.

As other CEOs have said, banks are lining up to finance 787s. It won't be a problem.

But it's great they are refurbing the 757, at least the newer ones. They are in need, but are great planes. The 763, well people are not so pleased with the premium product they are putting in, after not being pleased with the previous 2-2-2 premium product either.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 13211 times:

Ordering in 2009 could possibly mean deliveries post 2015-2016 , that is pushing a bit IMHO . I think AA would want deliveries by 2012-2013 to begin with and in all ernest by 2013-2014 so for that they have to order now , maybe before year end .

User currently offlineMCOflyer From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 8690 posts, RR: 16
Reply 9, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 13142 times:

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 8):
I think AA would want deliveries by 2012-2013 to begin with and in all ernest by 2013-2014 so for that they have to order now , maybe before year end .

Couldn't AA secure slots ahead of time?

Hunter



Never be afraid to stand up for who you are.
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1001 posts, RR: 51
Reply 10, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 13134 times:

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 5):
AA does not have the $$$ to spend either on new airplanes.

It's called financing, and any number of creditors would line up in a heart beat to provide it for AMR Corp.


User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 13076 times:

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 9):
Couldn't AA secure slots ahead of time?

They definately could , and it is a safe bet that they allready have some pretty sweet slots reserved for them however the Demand for the 787 is bound to put pressure somewhere and something would have to give . DL is expected to order the 787 aswell and with 2007 looking like the 787's best sales year , and 2008 would be EIS so logically there should be a surge in orders . Taking into account all of this AA might want to push things a little bit faster to get the best possible delivery slots for themselves ahead of there competition . I think it was carson who was quotes as saying that the pressure of demand is being felt by the airlines and they are being forced to prepone some of there descisions because the Hot sales means that the slots are evaporating very fast .


User currently offlineMcMax From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 12768 times:

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 11):
they are being forced to prepone some of there descisions because the Hot sales means that the slots are evaporating very fast

I love that word, "prepone." I had never heard it used before, and I must add it to my vocabulary. I tip my hat to you.



De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
User currently offlineLarSPL From Netherlands, joined Apr 2002, 473 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 12628 times:

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 2):
Given AA's current financial situation and the fact they are going into union negotiations, its more likely than not that AA will not order the 787 any time soon. UA DL have not ordered either....

there is no way that an airline does not have something like a financial outlook for the coming years.

aircraft planning is a longterm plan, its not like you wait as long as you can until your current aircraft are outdated and thén start finding funds for new ones.. you plan new aircraft investments years in advance. it doesnt matter if they buy 787 or a350 they still need new airplanes and therefore they will indeed reserve funds for new planes.

on the note of union negotiations: every union will atleast go for inflation correction, so the big sum is also roughly known before they go in to negotiations. let me point out that the influence of labor costs has largely been overtaken by fuel costs.



facebook.com/ddaclassicairlines
User currently offlineSwissy From Switzerland, joined Jan 2005, 1734 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 11782 times:

Quoting LarSPL (Reply 13):
aircraft planning is a longterm plan, its not like you wait as long as you can until your current aircraft are outdated and thén start finding funds for new ones.. you plan new aircraft investments years in advance. it doesnt matter if they buy 787 or a350 they still need new airplanes and therefore they will indeed reserve funds for new planes.

That would be the "normal way" however 9/11 changed that....... to many airlines were running on "the edge" prior 9/11 and 9/11 uncovered that clearly.

It is better to clean your house (airline) before any new crazy orders are made

Quoting LarSPL (Reply 13):
on the note of union negotiations: every union will atleast go for inflation correction, so the big sum is also roughly known before they go in to negotiations. let me point out that the influence of labor costs has largely been overtaken by fuel costs.

 checkmark 

And lets not forget these 57/67 are still a very efficient AC and when the 787 will start to replace these 67, there will be some sweet metal available at a very good price/lease.......

AMR has a bigger problem with their "domestic" fleet...........

Oh sure the banks are lining up, but that does not mean you have to jump on it and increase your liabilities...  Wink

Cheers


User currently offlineTinPusher007 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 983 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 11537 times:

Quoting Floris (Reply 1):
It never ceases to amaze me how many topics on this forum have titles that state things like a fact, whereby they turn out to be nothing more then speculation or somebody's personal opinion.

In the title of the thread it clearly states that it is someone's opinion, not fact!



"Flying isn't inherently dangerous...but very unforgiving of carelessness, incapacity or neglect."
User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5802 posts, RR: 47
Reply 16, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 11453 times:

I say BS to this. I have heard that AA CEO Gerald Arpey will be in Paris next week to sign the order for the 787 and other aircraft pruchases.


That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 11253 times:

Quoting McMax (Reply 12):
I love that word, "prepone." I had never heard it used before, and I must add it to my vocabulary. I tip my hat to you.

Well if you ever had a chance at school to interact with a lot of foreign grads then you would come to use it in a snap  Wink


User currently offlineAAL0616 From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 272 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 10327 times:

The company will acquire and deploy 787 equipment. The only question is when. The labor negotiations do factor into the decision, as well as Boeing delivery schedules and competitive rationale. Fort Worth has a plan in place. The speculation about when, which variants, or how many hulls will be announced and which engines will be hung on the wings is interesting. The reality is that the announcement could occur at any time. Stand by. AAL will fly the 787. DFW-SYD here we come.

User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 19, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 10105 times:

Quoting AAL0616 (Reply 18):
. Stand by. AAL will fly the 787. DFW-SYD here we come.

...it will be QF flying that route first (SYD-DFW-SYD) before AA even think about flying that route... Wink



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineGalapagapop From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 910 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 10028 times:

Quoting AA787823 (Reply 5):
AA does not have the $$$ to spend either on new airplanes. Consider AA is investing $$$$ in refurbishing 757/762/763 it really goes to show that AA plans on having these airplanes around for the forseeable future.

Obviously you have not read any of AA financial statements. They have debt like every major carrier, but their credit rating is one of the highest. AA also has billions in unrestricted cash, the time to act is sooner rather than later. Not to mention are more stable than other majors as like CO they entirely avoided BK. International is the money area for majors right now and AA needs A/C more than ever anyway (777 fleet is stretched thin), not to mention the aging 767 and A300 fleets. AA will also look to keeping it's short haul fleet as young as possible to stave of high maintenance, although all 400 or so narrowbodies won't be replaced in one go, especially until Y1, small orders are expected to get the oldest A/C on the way out and pave way for small growth.


User currently online1337Delta764 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6646 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 9891 times:

AA needs to get an A300 replacement. I have heard that after the leases for the A300s expire, they will not be renewed. This is likely why AA doesn't plan on updating the interior on them. AA needs an aircraft that can carry as much or more cargo than the A300 for Caribbean routes, and the current 767 fleet is not suitable for that.

AA was rumored to be ordering 100 787s at the Paris Air Show, I woudn't be suprised if the rumors are true.

Also expect Delta to order the 787 this year; Delta CEO Gerald Grinstein said that he expects a 787 order before the end of the year.



The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
User currently offlineThebry From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 375 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 9858 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting AA787823 (Thread starter):
Remember the 777 was in service almost 5 years before AA placed its first order.

...only because they were saddled with the poor performing MD-11 at the time. They bet on the wrong plane. This time, things could be different.


User currently offlineEXAAUADL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 9753 times:

In the year 2015, visiting an US airport will be like visiting an African or Latin American airport today (ie you see lots of 727s 737s Dc-9s). The rest of the world will be flying around in A350s, 787s and US flags will still have 763s. They will be at a tremendous cost disadvantage

User currently offlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3432 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (7 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 9578 times:

AA AND OLD: Guangzhou - Baiyun (CAN / ZGGG) (closed), China">CAN'T wait to order 787 till 2009. It needs to start getting planes now. If you wait till 2009 your competition may have 5 years or more of kicking your profitability straight in the sack with planes that are far cheaper to run. Its very hard to fight off someone who puts their shiny new 787 on your route that has a A300,767 or early A330 since their trip costs are going to be far lower, and can carry more people. So... They charge less and take more people than ever before.

Whats great about the lease/finance world is that they will loan money to anyone at anytime if the product they are loaning it on keeps its value. Given that for the near future a 787 frame used is going to be worth more than a new one, Its hardly a stretch to loan people money for one. If they default, you (the bank) take your plane (collateral) and sell it for more than you paid for it to begin with, or lease it out whichever takes your fancy at the time.

Leasing companies would also love to have airlines like AA get them slots. Boeing is stingy about giving leasing companies slots, but if AA comes to the table and asks for part of their order to be leased from ILFC or GECAS then guess what, ILFC or GECAS gets the planes if everyone can agree on the terms. Leasing companies REALLY want 787 slots right now. They are drooling at the thought of a plane that is much cheaper to maintain and with a much much longer lifespan. So you write your leases up for terms that don't look any different than if it was for a 767 or A330, then pocket the savings on lower cost to refurbish after each lease, AND get to lease that same frame for an extra decade or so thus making for a decade of free money. Customers who are large, and with a good relationship you can at your desire share these benefits making everyone happy.


25 PGNCS : What about the extraordinarily overcompensated managers who have seen their compensation increase dramatically while AMR's unions have given essentia
26 Post contains images AA717driver : Having a shiny new fleet matters only to we airliner geeks at A.net. Put new interiors in every so often and no one is the wiser. NWA kept their old f
27 Catdaddy63 : As has been stated before, AA has large quantities of aircraft that will be reaching retirement in the next 10 years or so. They need to get the order
28 XT6Wagon : Even worse, we are not talking about a decision to hold over the MD-80 fleet for a couple years more. Thats been done for quite a few "couple years".
29 Jacobin777 : .....it was stock-based compensation-which is very typical of management to get..as the stock went up so did their wealth, if the stock went down the
30 Ikramerica : The title was altered after complaints. NOW it says it's an opinion.
31 Galapagapop : Speaking of, I about a missed that boat, I remember the stock sitting at $10 for so long, I knew it's be worth more eventually but I never pulled the
32 Post contains images Jacobin777 : You're telling me, I was watching the stock go down the day before they were going to hit bankruptcy, I never thought they would have been able to ge
33 Post contains images Swissy : While I agree it is very typical (to typical for my taste) there should be no difference between the bleeding/risk for Management & unions...........
34 PGNCS : Please explain how you came to this conclusion. What aircraft at AA is facing imminent grounding and for what reason? And bonuses. So you are arguing
35 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...but that's how corporate world works, its no different in many any industries.... .....I'm not so big on unions as others are..so I won't say anyt
36 BigJKU : I would imagine AA has decided a couple of things. First they know that fleet planning is a long term thing and they can secure financing for such ac
37 Ckfred : One of the reasons, among many, that TWA got into trouble is that it was too slow to order new planes in the 80s. Gas guzzling aircraft with high main
38 N1120A : Yeah, because they made a huge mistake Aside from the fact that AA has banks lined up to finance aircraft for them, they also have massive cash store
39 JayinKitsap : AA has a large fleet that has already had replacements deferred on. In the NB's they are faced with either buying the tail of the 737 run or waiting o
40 Post contains images Swissy : Agree 100% and I do not support it at all and I do hope with a newer generation coming in things will change for the better and labour relations will
41 BigJKU : Because you are better off having more debt and good cashflow than you are having less debt a negative cash flow due to having fuel hungry aircraft t
42 AA787823 : AA still is close to $20billion in debt. Almost double the other majors. AA is not about to add to that. Most of the cash that AA has on hand is BORR
43 BigJKU : I agree that their situation is not perfect. What they really need to do is knock down their labor cost further during this round of negotiations by
44 Jacobin777 : ...IIRC, its down to $16 billion now..also, AA's bond ratings have improved = better perceived fundamentals, and better loan rates...... FWIW...for a
45 Galapagapop : Like every other major carrier in the US. They unlike others have not gone into BK and still own much of their fleet. Banks want to loan AA money, of
46 Post contains images Swissy : AAs fleet might be not the "most" efficient fleet on the planet, however they produce positive cash flow, remember fuel burn is just one of the facto
47 Cslusarc : Can you read in between the lines? AA now typically says that it has the highest labour CASM in the North American industry. From listening to the fi
48 LMP737 : In the first quarter of 2007 AA had a total debt of $17.5 billion and a net debt of $12.2 billion. Compared to a year earlier, $19.7 billion and $15.
49 Post contains images Jacobin777 : many people fault AA "for this and for that, and they need to get their game together"..but at the end of the day, they don't need to go into BK, cut
50 Post contains images Swissy : Frist Jacobin, I appreciate "our" well based conversation about AA spending "bling bling"..... different views but never less interesting.. Short ter
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Aircraft Arrives At The Gate, Pilots Off First? posted Thu Jan 12 2006 13:19:45 by Ktachiya
First Class Checkin At The Airport posted Sun May 19 2002 04:32:17 by Alitalia777
When Will The First Flight Leave/arrive At Dca? posted Wed Oct 3 2001 04:38:18 by Bobcat
Boeing First Qtr 2007 Report & The 787 posted Tue May 1 2007 02:11:39 by Ruscoe
Two Air China Planes In New York At The Same Time posted Tue Apr 24 2007 04:51:22 by Levg79
Restoration Work At The Monino Aviation Museum posted Sun Apr 1 2007 16:33:45 by Tu204
First US Airways A330 To The Paint Shop posted Thu Feb 22 2007 21:49:01 by A340Spotter
TAM First MD-11 Photo At A.net posted Wed Jan 24 2007 22:48:43 by Magyarorszag
Aviation At The University Of North Dakota posted Mon Jan 22 2007 05:40:11 by SiouxATC
My SQ First Class Flight Is Around The Corner! posted Fri Jan 19 2007 22:04:53 by Zrs70