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John Leahy Airshow Interview By James Wallace  
User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 5965 times:

Very informative. Discusses his rationale for the orders surge at Le Bourget, his reasons for originally disparaging the 787, and his talking points on the A350XWB versus the 787.

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/aerospace/archives/117094.asp


"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
58 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 5914 times:

To quote one of the comments under the column"

    Posted by unregistered user at 6/23/07 12:01 a.m.

    "He just sounds like a used car salesman on the verge of a nervous breakdown who doesn't really believe any of his own words."


User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 5888 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 1):
"He just sounds like a used car salesman on the verge of a nervous breakdown who doesn't really believe any of his own words."

The man has just signed a record of 700+ planes in merely 5 days, many of them wide bodies, so for me he can say whatever he wants really, as he actually delivers!


User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 5838 times:

Not 24h has passed since the end of the show and the attempts to ridicule Airbus' return to form are getting kick started.

User currently offlineCygnusChicago From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 758 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5745 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 3):
Not 24h has passed since the end of the show and the attempts to ridicule Airbus' return to form are getting kick started.

Of course!

Interesting from the tape:

- He never calls barrels old-fashioned, as far as I can hear, unlike the previous report
- Ribs are fibreglassed covered at the bonds
- Echo's what has been said about the 7E7 - the original shark tail and nose not feasible (which probably means A will change the 350 nose)



If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
User currently offlineDeaphen From India, joined Jul 2005, 1426 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5704 times:

Is it just me or is the link to heard the clip not anywhere on the page? Can someone direct me to it?

regards
nitin

**EDIT: Sorry, just reinstalled windows, so the acgtive x control wasnt installed, its working perfectly now! Thanks!

[Edited 2007-06-23 16:29:04]


I want every single airport and airplane in India to be on A.net!
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30900 posts, RR: 87
Reply 6, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5696 times:
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It is the black bar just below the last paragraph and just above the comments section. Click on the play icon on the far left of that bar.

Just finished listening to it, myself. Good talk.

[Edited 2007-06-23 16:36:39]

User currently offlineCol From Malaysia, joined Nov 2003, 2107 posts, RR: 22
Reply 7, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5632 times:

Sounds very informative and straight. I expected him to be a little arrogant, as a lot of people make out here, but he seems to understand the competition. Couple of things I found interesting:

1) SQ - 777-300ER is their cash cow.
2) GE, I think he is straight on this, as it is obvious GE are very close to Boeing, and why wouldn't they be.
3) 787 being too small. This is where the global split is. In USA we probably will prefer to go with a 767-300 size, point to point requirement. But the rest of the world will want bigger, so both arguments are true.

Enjoyed the talk, and I would probably think you would get similar comments from Boeing, beats listening to some of the A.Netters Big grin


User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 8, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 5517 times:

Yes, this interview was a chance to hear the man in the context of an entire conversation, not just a few sound bites or quotes.

I can see why he is such an effective salesman.



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 9, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 5447 times:

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 4):
- He never calls barrels old-fashioned, as far as I can hear, unlike the previous report

I'm sure being taped causes him to control his mouth a bit better.

Quoting Col (Reply 7):
3) 787 being too small. This is where the global split is. In USA we probably will prefer to go with a 767-300 size, point to point requirement. But the rest of the world will want bigger, so both arguments are true.

Given that the majority of orders for the 787 have for the 787-8 and the vast majority of those outside the US, there doesn't appear to be a global split.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 10, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 5404 times:

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 9):
Given that the majority of orders for the 787 have for the 787-8 and the vast majority of those outside the US, there doesn't appear to be a global split.

I found that odd as well. I'm surprised Wallace didn't call him on it.



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30900 posts, RR: 87
Reply 11, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 5396 times:
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Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 4):
- He never calls barrels old-fashioned, as far as I can hear, unlike the previous report

That would be because this conversation is from Thursday and the comment in question is from a conversation on Tuesday.  Smile


User currently offlineDank From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 892 posts, RR: 16
Reply 12, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 5363 times:

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 9):
Given that the majority of orders for the 787 have for the 787-8 and the vast majority of those outside the US, there doesn't appear to be a global split.

But we've had discussions around this issue before. The question isn't what has sold yet, it is what will be sold in the future. Sales in the -8 class have benefited by a few things, the fact that it is available first, and the fact that because there is no competition, negotiations for those sales aren't going to depend on negotiations for the 350 nor compete for sales with the 350, some -8s will be converted to bigger variants, and that sales that aren't guaranteed to Boeing (like AA and DL) that haven't come yet are not likely to be going for the -8, they'll be going to the -9 or -10 and 350 variants.

cheers.


User currently offlineFleet Service From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 622 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 5323 times:

Dank, you can *Almost* bet the ranch on the fact that AA won't be ordering the A350, or any other Airbus products in the future.

After all of the finger pointing that went on after the loss of 587, the die was cast and the chances of there being another Airbus product delivered in AA livery are remote, at best.



Yes, I actually *do* work for an airline,how about you?
User currently offlineCygnusChicago From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 758 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 5298 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
That would be because this conversation is from Thursday and the comment in question is from a conversation on Tuesday

So are we to believe that Mr Wallace is fortunate enough to get two interviews with Leahy at an event no less than the Paris Airshow? And then goes on to only write about one of them?  Smile

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 8):
hear the man in the context of an entire conversation, not just a few sound bites or quotes.

Agreed. Sound-bite journalist is excellent fodder for controversial threads, but I like to heard the full story. Thanks Mr Wallace for posting the full interview!  bigthumbsup 


On the engines, you can definitely hear frustration. I'm sceptical of his claim that engines have never cost a sale, but I guess we'll see.

What is interesting - and I never thought of this - is the increased complexity in negotiations with a single engine provider. If Airbus has indeed formed an agreement with RR to price as though in a competitive environment, that's definitely forward thinking. We may be entering an era in the next 10 years, where a "wintel" forms - a Boeing/GE exclusive alliance and an Airbus/RR exclusive alliance for widebodies.



If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30900 posts, RR: 87
Reply 15, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 5293 times:
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Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 14):
So are we to believe that Mr Wallace is fortunate enough to get two interviews with Leahy at an event no less than the Paris Airshow? And then goes on to only write about one of them?  Smile

Why not? Some may view him as a mouthpiece for Boeing because he writes for a Seattle daily, but the man has bona fide credentials and has been covering aerospace for a great deal of time which has allowed him to forge lasting friendships with many in the industry. And since he doesn't make it a point to write "shock journalism" pieces designed to jump on those individuals, they are more likely to spend time with them then with others who don't show the same respect for the industry and it's players.


User currently offlineDank From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 892 posts, RR: 16
Reply 16, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 5273 times:

Quoting Fleet Service (Reply 13):
Dank, you can *Almost* bet the ranch on the fact that AA won't be ordering the A350, or any other Airbus products in the future.

I agree, but I see why my sentence made it seem like I was saying that they weren't guaranteed to Boeing. That piece meant something on the order of many sales that are yet to come are going to be for bigger variants, with the exception being sales to airlines that are guaranteed to go with Boeing such as DL and AA.

cheers.


User currently offlineFlyABR From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 648 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 5245 times:

as for the interview...interesting. a wave of A380 orders after EIS. i really wonder about that statement. one other comment. leahy mentions composite over aluminum ribs on the 787. i thought the dreamliner was gonna use composite ribs???

User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8223 posts, RR: 8
Reply 18, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 5162 times:

A good interview and a good insight into JL - far better than the sound bites we normally get.

An interesting part of his comments was focused on slots now being a prime factor in airlines buying sooner rather than later.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25123 posts, RR: 85
Reply 19, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 5113 times:
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Quoting Lumberton (Reply 8):
I can see why he is such an effective salesman.

He did a couple of long tv interviews when he was in Sydney with the A380 a few weks ago, and he was extraordinarily charming. He has - as they say - a twinkle in his eye, a strong sense of humor.

He kept reminding me (not physically) of Michael O'Leary, who makes comments that infuriate some but is one smart businessman.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 20, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 5089 times:

Quoting Dank (Reply 12):
But we've had discussions around this issue before. The question isn't what has sold yet, it is what will be sold in the future. Sales in the -8 class have benefited by a few things, the fact that it is available first, and the fact that because there is no competition, negotiations for those sales aren't going to depend on negotiations for the 350 nor compete for sales with the 350, some -8s will be converted to bigger variants, and that sales that aren't guaranteed to Boeing (like AA and DL) that haven't come yet are not likely to be going for the -8, they'll be going to the -9 or -10 and 350 variants.

Yet the -8 orders keep on coming for well after the 2010 EIS of the 787-9 and from outside the US. I think you are just buying into the spin Airbus and its supporters here have used to mask the reason why they aren't trying to address the -8. They simply can't cover the range from the 3 class low 200 pax to 350+ pax space with a single aircraft family powered by a single engine family from any vendor. They have decided to target the upper end of the range because that is where Boeing has older products and where Airbus has nothing selling at a particularly brisk rate.

The general relationship between size and sales volume is more or less an inversely related one as you go into territory requiring widebody aircraft. That is particularly true when a given aircraft model is neither too heavy in order to support higher range or too light and as a result too short ranged, and as long as aircraft of diffent size have similar technology levels. Unlike with previous aircraft, Boeing has optimized the MTOW of both the -8 and -9, so range differences aren't as great. CASM won't differ as much either. I think you will find the 787-8 will hold its own, particularly if the 787-8 gets any tech upgrades the -9 has.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 14):
On the engines, you can definitely hear frustration. I'm sceptical of his claim that engines have never cost a sale, but I guess we'll see.

It doesn't usually help the case having only one vendor, unless the one vendor goes all out to optimize that engine because they are committed to that particular airframe winning over competing airframes.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 14):
We may be entering an era in the next 10 years, where a "wintel" forms - a Boeing/GE exclusive alliance and an Airbus/RR exclusive alliance for widebodies.

The smaller widebodies will have high enough sales volumes to support multiple engines. The large ones won't, particularly if they are twins. Which engine maker signs up for exclusivity for larger models will have something to do with who wants it more and who has the most suitable engine.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineDank From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 892 posts, RR: 16
Reply 21, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 5050 times:

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 20):
Yet the -8 orders keep on coming for well after the 2010 EIS of the 787-9 and from outside the US. I think you are just buying into the spin Airbus and its supporters here have used to mask the reason why they aren't trying to address the -8. They simply can't cover the range from the 3 class low 200 pax to 350+ pax space with a single aircraft family powered by a single engine family from any vendor. They have decided to target the upper end of the range because that is where Boeing has older products and where Airbus has nothing selling at a particularly brisk rate.

I think you are partly right. But even Boeing's forecasts, as I recall, think that the -9 will have a bigger share of the market than the -8. If you look at the customers who haven't committed, like EK, LH, BA, etc. They are all going to go for more of the larger models (only BA of that group would even have a shot at the -8, in my opinion). And airlines like Air New Zealand, CO, etc. are moving towards -9s. Part of this is because Boeing is also going to go after at least the low end of the 777 space, they are just delaying the inevitable. I don't disagree one bit that Airbus knew they couldn't tackle everything with one plane. They went for not only where Boeing was weakest, but where the bulk of what they think their customers are going to buy (e.g. the domestic 763/a300 market didn't have a strong sized market that was going to buy Airbus). But more importantly, what people want to conclude around here is that the distribution of sales today is indicative of the distribution of the sales tomorrow. There are ample reasons to think that this isn't the case.

cheers.


User currently offlineFlyABR From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 648 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 5002 times:

Quoting Dank (Reply 21):
But more importantly, what people want to conclude around here is that the distribution of sales today is indicative of the distribution of the sales tomorrow. There are ample reasons to think that this isn't the case.

could be, however, i also doubt any airline would buy a particular plane just to get one because it's first out of the gate...especially if it didn't fit their needs. there apparently was (is) a big need for aircraft with the size/performance of the 788.


User currently offlineDank From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 892 posts, RR: 16
Reply 23, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 8 hours ago) and read 4923 times:

Quoting FlyABR (Reply 22):
could be, however, i also doubt any airline would buy a particular plane just to get one because it's first out of the gate...especially if it didn't fit their needs. there apparently was (is) a big need for aircraft with the size/performance of the 788.

Hunh? I never said there wasn't a demand for 788s did I? Think about it this way. If you are in the market for a 788 sized plane, why wait for the 350 to be firmed up before ordering it, knowing that you are still going to end up with a 788? There is more pressure to order that now, since other airlines that are also looking for it are committing now. Whereas, if you are really in the market for bigger planes (or if you are also in the market for bigger planes) you might be waiting to make the commitment. Add in that the replacement market for 330s, 340s, and 772s will be later than 762s and 763s in general, and you can see how the overall distribution of orders could easily shift away from the distribution that the 787 is showing now. It may turn out that way. But to suggest that the distribution of sales to date MUST be indicative of sales as a whole is bordering on the preposterous.

cheers.


User currently offlineFlyABR From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 648 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 8 hours ago) and read 4900 times:

Quoting Dank (Reply 23):
But to suggest that the distribution of sales to date MUST be indicative of sales as a whole is bordering on the preposterous.

you seem to favor the bigger is better notion. all i'm trying to point out is that even after 789 and 7810 sales takeoff...there will still be demand for the 788. "it" isn't always about trying to obtain the largest aircraft you can possibly get...unless of course you are EK!


25 Dank : I do? I actually think that the bulk of sales for the 787 will probably be in the -9 range and the bulk of 350s in the -900 range. And again I never
26 FlyABR : the -8 got favoured...what do you mean?
27 Dank : That the distribution of sales to date favors the 788 compared to what I think the total demand really will be.[Edited 2007-06-23 23:16:34]
28 FlyABR : i'm still confused. when i read your previous posts...i get the feeling that you are hinting that airlines basically "signed up" for -8s because the
29 Dank : OK, put it this way. You are thinking about buying planes. If you are looking for a 788 sized plane, you know that Airbus isn't a competitor that wil
30 Blsbls99 : Well, fortunately, not every airline order new planes at the same time. Granted, the limited availability of the 787 due to it's sales success thus f
31 Atmx2000 : And yet Airbus's most popular model currently is the A332. I would suggest there is more demand for aircraft with a capacity of 200-250 than for airc
32 ERAUgrad02 : Did they interview Boeing as well? i'd like to hear that as well.
33 PVG : I like when he says: "We'll eventually pull ahead because we'll have the better airplane" Seems to me that he hasn't learned his lesson from underesti
34 Motopolitico : Thanks for linking this, I enjoyed listening to it.
35 Ilikeflight : Some of the things he said in there and just he other recent comments he has made earlier in the year
36 Aminobwana : I think that the best answer to such attitude is ignore him. Could be, if he had no more the limelight of public attention on him, he will recapacita
37 Post contains images Mariner : I know the English language quite well, but your usage puzzles me. My dictionary defines it as: "To qualify again; to confer capacity on again." That
38 Beaucaire : What remark in particular in his interview makes you breed such a statement ????? He sounded reasonable,down to earth and defended his products,which
39 Gbfra : It's easy to know everything in hindsight. But how was the situation then? 1. At the time Boeing was in severe management trouble. 2. Many financial
40 Post contains images CygnusChicago : Well, he did say his bonus is dependant on him selling 200 A350s by end of year And what exactly is this "middle term" damage?
41 Post contains images Astuteman : FWIW I believe this to be one of the biggest drivers of the continuing order glut that we're seeing today. I can't possibly see either of the manufac
42 Glideslope : Well, we will know the answer in a couple of years. Mr. Leahy will say anything to anyone. Even Mr. Wallace, IMO. He has a long road to haul IMO, to
43 PVG : I think that BUFFOON or SOPHIST is a better word than FOOL! It really seems that they haven't learned anything from their mistakes. I'll guess we'll
44 Post contains images Scbriml : It would certainly be good if some did. But it seems, some just can't help themselves.
45 Wolbo : Interesting interview, thanks for the link! Good to hear his straight forward and insightful views on several topics. He actually comes across as very
46 Moo : Leahy is practically the only executive at Airbus and EADS that hasn't been reassigned, resigned or fired in the recent crisis, and hes been at the c
47 Post contains images Maersk737 : As long as he is selling, the attention will stick to him You can ignore him as much as you want. I don't think he really cares Cheers Peter
48 BoomBoom : Because he said it on Tuesday and this interview was taped on Thursday.
49 Lumberton : I agree with you that this may be the largest sub-segment here, but Mr. Leahy's comments seem to "write off" the U.S. 767 replacement market. Also, I
50 Astuteman : Do you think he's wrong to do that? From what I can see, most of the airlines concerned are pretty much "hooked" into Boeing anyway. Regards
51 Lumberton : If you judge by the prevailing sentiment here, then it would appear so. However, AA and UA have done business with Airbus in the past, so I wouldn't
52 Post contains images Astuteman : I don't disagree. JL's sentiments appear to be in tune with our prevailing "wind", though. Faced with hard choices, it's not an unreasonable decision
53 Atmx2000 : I see little chance with AA. The bad feelings there are similar to what drove US into Airbus's arms long ago. 8. A lot of Airbus's success was predic
54 Astuteman : FWIW my understanding (from RR publications) is that the only "variant" is the 95k lb thrust model, which will require some enhanced materials to all
55 EI321 : Which in Airbuses case extends to basically one airline - United.
56 Dank : I have to agree. Since you can't satisfy everybody, you have to make your choices. And, given the situation at the time that Airbus went to the 350XW
57 Blsbls99 : Does anyone think that the Open Skies agreement that goes into affect next year will have any affect on forthcoming mid-size widebody aircraft purchas
58 EI321 : Depends which ones you are refering to. BA, EK, etc?
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