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LH 748 - Will It Become Reality?  
User currently offlineTommyBP251b From Germany, joined Apr 2006, 459 posts, RR: 0
Posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 12886 times:

Hi Everybody!

I was checking the Boeing orders list of the 747! There is LH with 20 and BBJ with 4 748i. On the other hand we have 63 748F.

http://active.boeing.com/commercial/...pageid=m25065&RequestTimeout=20000

(go to MODEL on the left and choose 747!)

So here are some questions:

1. Will Boeing build the passenger version if the number of 24 orders stays like now?
2. When will they decide, if they will build it?
3. Won't the losses not be high, with only building 24+63 planes?
4. Should they not better concentrate on the 748F?
5. Which version they will build first? 748i or 748F?

Any more thoughts on this topic?m Thx for your answers!

Best Regards Tom


Tom from Cologne
111 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 1, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 12841 times:

Oh boy - better get your flamesuit on - the Cheerleaders are going to slaughter you.  Wink

The answer is - the 748 programme has already broken even in terms of RoI, so the 748I will be built, as LH are a blue-chip major and have passed over deposits.

I wouldnt worry - the Intercontinental passenger type will probably get more orders from somewhere. I dont think BA will, and I dont think CX will either, but I can totally see Air China, China Airlines, and maybe Saudi getting some.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 12741 times:

Quoting TommyBP251b (Thread starter):
Will Boeing build the passenger version if the number of 24 orders stays like now?

Yes ! The replacement cycle for the 744's is still 12-24 months off . Also some airlines like BA are currently looking at it and will make a fleet descision later this year.

Quoting TommyBP251b (Thread starter):
When will they decide, if they will build it?

They have allready decided it when the launched the program .

Quoting TommyBP251b (Thread starter):
Won't the losses not be high, with only building 24+63 planes?

The last time i checked the 748 was still being marketed , it would be insane to expect boeing not to sell even a single 748I or 748F over and above what it has sold so far . The market according to boeing is 500-700 aircrafts over 20 years and boeing should pick some orders . Even if they get 30% of the market ( not being unreasonable) they would secure in access of 200 orders , which is quite good considering that the development cost for the aircraft varient is estimated to be 1/4 - 1/5 of the A380

Quoting TommyBP251b (Thread starter):
Should they not better concentrate on the 748F?

What do you mean better concentrate? Other then delivery slots i dont see any pressure which the I puts on the F .

Quoting TommyBP251b (Thread starter):
Which version they will build first? 748i or 748F?

The F , i beleive the rollout for the F would be late next year


User currently offlineDALCE From Netherlands, joined Feb 2007, 1676 posts, RR: 7
Reply 3, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 12694 times:

LH will not accept it when Boeing just says : "sorry guys, we decided to forget about the 748i, as we cannot make money with it"
Signing a contract means that both parties have made a commitment, so normally no way back for both.

Also other airlines will commit for the 748i, I see some chinese carriers ordering and perhaps JL or AI.
Also BA will have a go I think, as I see them operating both 380's and 748's at one time.

Just my € 0.02.....

Brgds,
DALCE



flown on : F50,F70,CR1,CR2,CR9,E75,143,AR8,AR1,733,735,736,73G,738,753,744,319,320,321,333,AB6.
User currently offlineWhales From Zimbabwe, joined Oct 2006, 347 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 12680 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
CUSTOMER SERVICE & SUPPORT

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
I dont think BA will, and I dont think CX will either, but I can totally see Air China, China Airlines, and maybe Saudi getting some.

Hi I am new to all of this, if you dont see BA ordering the748i what do you think they will order? I spoke to a BA pilot crew on 21/06, and they tended to think it would go witn a boeing order.


User currently offlineJoFMO From Germany, joined Jul 2004, 2211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 12680 times:

LH and Boeing are both in a comfortable situations. If one side gets a problem with the current arrangement for what ever reason, both would not complain too much if the order is transformed into a freighter.

If if Boeing doe nhot get any new orders for the 747i in the next time they might want to abandon the passenger version and LH if becomes concerned to be the only operator of the 747, they still need a replacement for their LHCargo MD11's.

Quiet comfortable situation for both if you ask me. Nobody has too much to loose.


User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 12664 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
The answer is - the 748 programme has already broken even in terms of RoI

Thats an assumption! I have absolutely no doubt that the programme as a whole will eventually, but I have a doubt that it has already. Its costing $4b.

Will the LH 748i be built? YES. However I do believe that if more orders are not achieved for the passenger, there is a chance that it will be produced as a 748F base with the interior and windows of the 744. It depends on what the order book looks like 12 months from now (post Farnborough 08), IMO.

Chris, I also think Cathy are a candidate.


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6832 posts, RR: 46
Reply 7, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 12664 times:

Even if no further 748i's get sold Boeing will build it. I would be very surprised if that is the case, but plenty of 748F's will be sold, so overall the program will make money. The additional cost of the 748i over the 748F is not all that much; I doubt that 24 frames will pay for t (especially with launch discounts) but it won't be far from it. There is no plane on the horizon that will do what the 748F will do, so unless Y3 obsoletes it it will continue to sell for years to come.


The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 12664 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
The answer is - the 748 programme has already broken even in terms of RoI, so the 748I will be built, as LH are a blue-chip major and have passed over deposits.

I wouldnt worry - the Intercontinental passenger type will probably get more orders from somewhere. I dont think BA will, and I dont think CX will either, but I can totally see Air China, China Airlines, and maybe Saudi getting some

This is pretty much about how I see it. I dont think there is going to be a huge amount of orders for either the A-380 or 748.



One Nation Under God
User currently offlineDeltaDC9 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 2844 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 12614 times:

Quoting TommyBP251b (Thread starter):
Won't the losses not be high, with only building 24+63 planes?

For Airbus yes, that about 100 380s they didn't sell....

 Wink

For Boeing, no, the 747 has been making 10-20 margin per plane since Nixon was POTUS. The 748 project rode on the tailcoats of the 787 and previous 747 next gen R&D and used a small percentage of engineering resources compared to an all new plane project (hundreds instead of thousands of engineers)



Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
User currently offlineDavescj From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 2305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 12597 times:

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 2):
Also some airlines like BA are currently looking at it and will make a fleet descision later this year.



Quoting DALCE (Reply 3):
Also BA will have a go I think, as I see them operating both 380's and 748's at one time.

I think DALCE is correct, and it will be a mixed fleet. Some places BA currently flies simply won't make sense for a A380, such as PHX -- currently a 744....as well as other US destinations etc.



Can I have a mojito on this flight?
User currently offlineBigJKU From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 875 posts, RR: 11
Reply 11, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 12568 times:

The program will make a bit of money, the 748I part that is as the 748F will do very well, and it has forced Airbus to have to compete on price in the A380 catagory. While the planes are not directly competitive in terms of seat count the 748 will have the effect of reducing the margins on the A380 which was already a wounded whale to begin with.

It ought to make Boeing a little money and ensure that the A380 never makes Airbus a dime.


User currently offlineJoFMO From Germany, joined Jul 2004, 2211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 12492 times:

The question is more if LH is willing to be the sole operator of an airplane that nobody else operates. I am fairly sure that they have a clause with Boeing that allows them to change the order into freighters at a certain point in time if nobody else orders the i-version. And Boeing would not be too unhappy in that case.

User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6832 posts, RR: 46
Reply 13, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 12432 times:

Quoting JoFMO (Reply 12):
The question is more if LH is willing to be the sole operator of an airplane that nobody else operates. I am fairly sure that they have a clause with Boeing that allows them to change the order into freighters at a certain point in time if nobody else orders the i-version.

I would doubt that LH cares as long as Boeing supports it, which they will. There really is not that much on the 748i that is unique; all functional parts will be found on the 748F, of which there will be plenty. What difference does it make to LH as long as they can get whatever they need?



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8403 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 12368 times:

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 11):
It ought to make Boeing a little money and ensure that the A380 never makes Airbus a dime.

Yup.

It is hard to understand the relations between the 773ER, 748i and A380. In the period 2008-2017, these are your options.

Which is most profitable? It's a matter of loads too big for the 773ER to handle. Do you have such a load? Usually not. Usually the 773ER is best. The A380 will take the major prestige routes.

What to do now that the 747 has lost its crown as the most luxurious jet?

What's left is heavy loads too big for the 773ER. The problem is, the added profit potential of the 748i over the 773ER is slim. Those extra ~80 coach seats give useful but not peak revenue. Meanwhile, the 748 burns more fuel and maintenance every single day, eating through at least 40 of those seats in revenue.

So really, the 748i may find its niche by living in dual 748F / 748i fleets. Airlines with on site 748F operations may find the 748i to be an easy addition, a great one for high traffic, low glamour flying... like NW for example.

[Edited 2007-06-26 17:45:24]

User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 15, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 12312 times:

AI and PK i can see with a VLA - tossed coin whether its A388 or 748I.

CX i just dont see it - lots of reasons.

BA i've been saying for years - dont see the 748I in their future.

ANZ - possible. Definitely possible, but I suspect their 77W will be as large as they are going to get, preferring to increase frequencies on routes where they are making profits.

QF - no chance.

SQ - again, no chance.

AF - Unlikely given the A388 order increases and the numbers of 77Ws they have now.

EK - nope, no way.

QR - nope - very unlikely.

EY - dont think so.

AC - nope - 77W is as big as they need for the foreseeable.

CI - Likely at some stage. They are my hot tip.

CA - Ditto CI - they are bound to order more large capacity w/b's at some stage, and I think they will go Boeing. Just a hunch, but they may feel 748I is a safer jump. The Chinese carriers are where it is going to be at for VLAs in the next ten years and I can totally see 748I doing ok against the A388 here.

JL - not likely anytime soon, but they may order the 748I some years down the road. Cant see them going A388.

NH - No - 77W is as large as they need.

SA)">UA - could certainly use them trans-Pac - I'd say they are quite likely.

SA)">NW - ditto SA)">UA.

SA)">DL - Zero chance.

SA)">AA - Almost zero chance.

SA)">CO - Almost zero chance.

TG - Ordered the A388 - 748 out of the picture I would say.

MH - same as TG.

SA - I see them going A388 at some stage.

UL, TK, KL, JJ, PR - Too much plane for them year round to justify a small subfleet, but they have routes that would work well with a 748I most of the time, but not year round.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6832 posts, RR: 46
Reply 16, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 12263 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 15):
BA i've been saying for years - dont see the 748I in their future.

You must have quite a prophetic gift if you've been saying no 748i for years, at it has only been an option for less than one.
 Big grin



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2212 posts, RR: 56
Reply 17, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 12252 times:

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 11):
It ought to make Boeing a little money and ensure that the A380 never makes Airbus a dime.

Airbus ensured that quite well themselves. You are giving the 748I more credit than it deserves.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
In the period 2008-2017, these are your options.

Unless you are assuming all Airbus projects are automatically 2 years late, the A350-1000 will be available in the period 2015-2017.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
The problem is, the added profit potential of the 748i over the 773ER is slim. Those extra ~80 coach seats give useful but not peak revenue. Meanwhile, the 748 burns more fuel and maintenance every single day, eating through at least 40 of those seats in revenue.

The CASM of the 748I (uppercase 'I', as it's not a BMW) will be significantly lower than the 773ER. You seem to be implying otherwise.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 13):
There really is not that much on the 748i that is unique; all functional parts will be found on the 748F, of which there will be plenty.

There is that minor matter of the cabin furnishings and certification thereof.


User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 12241 times:

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 16):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 15):
BA i've been saying for years - dont see the 748I in their future.

You must have quite a prophetic gift if you've been saying no 748i for years, at it has only been an option for less than one.

She was launched officiallly in 2005. Although I see your point.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 15):
CX i just dont see it - lots of reasons.

Do you think they would consider the A380?


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 19, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 12198 times:

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 16):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 15):
BA i've been saying for years - dont see the 748I in their future.

You must have quite a prophetic gift if you've been saying no 748i for years, at it has only been an option for less than one

I was the guy who said the 748 will never be launched the day before they actually launched it, if you remember.

I meant by the above though, that BA will order the A388 - thats what i've saying for years. Not saying its the right move, but i am fairly certain they will do it.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6832 posts, RR: 46
Reply 20, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 12180 times:

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 17):
There is that minor matter of the cabin furnishings and certification thereof.

But as far as LH is concerned all they care about is parts; I'm sure most of the parts will be common with other planes. The certification is Boeing's problem and they will take care of that.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineBigJKU From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 875 posts, RR: 11
Reply 21, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 12163 times:

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 17):
Airbus ensured that quite well themselves. You are giving the 748I more credit than it deserves.

While I agree to a point it was possible for a while that after they got the problems worked out they could have sold newer frames for a decent margin and possibly saved something in the end. I doubt it but it could have been possible. The 748 killed any chance of a freighter market, however small it would have been for the A380, and it will bring down margins on any future sales.


User currently offlineLXA340 From Switzerland, joined Nov 2006, 2122 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 12146 times:

I am also pretty sure that at least one US airline will purchase B748's obviously it would be NW or United even maybe both of them but let's see.

User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8403 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 12131 times:

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 17):

The CASM of the 748I (uppercase 'I', as it's not a BMW) will be significantly lower than the 773ER. You seem to be implying otherwise.

Not at all, the CASM really doesn't matter. Low CASM carriers/operations lose money all the time. What matters is trip costs versus the revenue you can bring in. The 773ER brings in almost as much revenue, some days 100% as much as a 747, while costing less. Typically, the 773ER is more profitable unless you really horribly need more seats.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 17):
Unless you are assuming all Airbus projects are automatically 2 years late, the A350-1000 will be available in the period 2015-2017.

Hmm, you are right. The A350-1000 is definitely hurting the case for the 748-I as well.


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 24, posted (7 years 1 month 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 12090 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 18):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 15):
CX i just dont see it - lots of reasons.

Do you think they would consider the A380?

Subfleet of ten or twelve - yes I do.

If you look at the routes that CX would use them on, and I'm thinking LAX, LHR, and maybe FRA as well here, then if you go daily on all three routes with one A388 (keeping the other departures 744/77W for the time being) then you've got probably nine airframes right there. Factor in one as a spare, and probably two more for high-density shuttle work elsewhere on the network for the routes to MNL, BKK etc where the very high density 773As are used to, and I think you can justify a worthwhile subfleet.

This only identifies the probable need for VLA equipment at CX and does not state why they will go A388 over 748I. Thats a different argument.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
25 Baron95 : I'm going to guess that the margins on the BBJs are $60M a piece (roughly) 20% of list and the margins on the LHs are about $15M a piece (roughly 5%
26 EI321 : hmmm never thought of that It does. Over six hundred 787 sales already!
27 CHRISBA777ER : Even if what you say is true, it does not take into account the intangible worth of potentially lucrative VLA airframe sales going to Airbus, and Air
28 CHRISBA777ER : We dont know enough about this monster to really be able to say that at the moment. I would want more concrete info about the plane before making com
29 AirbusA6 : I'm sure though that LH won't want to have an orphan fleet. If they were the only major 748i user, that would have an adverse affect on resale value
30 EI321 : Could they be converted as part of the existing BCF programme?
31 DavidkunzVIE : LH has a history of bringing airplanes to life that no one believed in. *cough737coughcough*.
32 Post contains images Bmacleod : So BA will just follow Richard Branson's Virgin order? Given BA's rock solid history with Boeing I'll say the 748 is still a safer bet.
33 Columba : How about the FD728 and the 757-300 for their subsidiary Condor.............
34 Parapente : Many have said that it will not cost much additional $$$ to create the "I" from the "F". Is that true? I do not know the answer but it strikes me that
35 DavidkunzVIE : It's flying. Well,...
36 DL767captain : personally i think we need to wait a while and see if any other airlines order the plane, the EIS is 2010 so we still have some time because other air
37 CygnusChicago : How many frames was the breakeven point?
38 SEPilot : There has never been the opportunity, as no other manufacturer has been in the position of being able to launch an airliner with only one customer an
39 Post contains images Columba : There are other airlines in the market for the 747-8I it is tooearly to write the 747-8I off just yet
40 BoomBoom : And with Boeing owning the VLA freighter market until at least 2014, and more likely forever, they can continue to charge top dollar until the last 7
41 TommyBP251b : Wasn't so bad yet! I just have the impression the A380 gets more bashed, than any other aircraft, no wait, I forgot A340-300. I just have the impress
42 EI321 : As far as I know there were no customers for the passenger version at launch. As for the orphan question, we could argue that the 767-400 case is com
43 DeltaDC9 : Thats rather subjective isnt it? Not the biggest anymore, but the front section of the main deck on the 747 is hard to beat, impossible IMO.
44 BoomBoom : The 747 has outsold the A380 since 2000 when the 380 was launched.
45 Post contains images WingedMigrator : I'll do you one better, the A350-1000 is definitely hurting the case for the A380-800. We certainly do know enough about the A350-1000 to say that it
46 Columba : Well, it took a while for the 787 to get the first orders, it took another while for the A350 and many people here was writing them off back then. Bu
47 WingedMigrator : That is a rather selective reading of the tea leaves. In the same spirit of abusive statistics, the 748 Intercontinental has never cost the A388 an o
48 BoomBoom : Never said that it did. I was simply responding to this post.
49 Post contains images Glideslope : Yup. Let's hope the 350 sells. Boeing needs the competition.
50 EDDB : I think the fact in WingedMigrator's post makes it clear that LH can't be this relaxed about the faith of the 8I .... And besides the technical view
51 EI321 : But the potential market for the 787 and A350 is huge. The potential market for the 748i is just a few airlines. Boom Boom ignores all of the variabl
52 JAL : I would very much believe Boeing will built the 747-8I.
53 BoomBoom : A bit early for that don't you think? Airbus just "interrupted" the A380F program in May. It's now the end of June. And there were not a whole lot of
54 Stitch : True, but Boeing has benefited with sales of 777Fs and 767Fs, both of which are better package freighters then the 748F. If Airbus had managed to sel
55 EI321 : UPS ,FedEx, Emirates and ILFC were the A380F customers. They all canceled long before May, even if the UPS paperwork only went through recently. UPS
56 FlyingClrs727 : I think you got that backwards. UPS ordred 747-400F's and 767-300F's. Fedex ordered 777-200F's.
57 EI321 : Your right, sorry! UPS ordered the 747-400F in 2005, and their A380F order was also made in 2005, replaceing 37 A300's that they ordered previously.
58 SEPilot : Even if the 20 LH 748i's are the only ones in existence (which they won't be) it will still be worth someone's while to convert them to freighters, b
59 WingedMigrator : The A380F as previously envisioned wasn't an absolute pig. In fact it was quite a bit better than the 744F on the basis of fuel burn and range. The 7
60 Post contains images WestJetYQQ : Sexy Much?
61 PVG : You really have to wonder where the Airbus executives were schooled? Really a huge failure in the marketing department if you ask me. They don't coun
62 Post contains images Stitch : I'll cut Airbus some slack on the 747, since Boeing shopped no less then six versions (745, 746, 74X, 74XS, 744XQLR and 74Adv) before they finally we
63 JRDC930 : It would be nice if we could all accept the possibility that the 748 will not succeed as a passenger version, as much as i hate to say it. Most of th
64 Ken777 : I still keep seeing the 748i as a replacement plane for the 744 - meaning orders will be tied to the timing of the 744 replacements. The 748i is not g
65 Baron95 : I'd be very surprised if Boeing conciously would ever be willing to launch a money losing program because it would inflict greater losses on Airbus.
66 Stitch : I suppose the wild card in the mix for the 748I is the A350-1000 and 787HGW/Y3. The A388 is a bit better protected for, even though her CASM won't be
67 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : Zvezda is the expert on this - I remember him making a series of posts about the 748 programme and the mythical break-even point. Perhaps he would be
68 Davescj : Any chace at a combi similar to the exisiting PIA (I think) or KLM (with pax/F mix?) I would think for some routes it might make sense -- say MEM whe
69 CHRISBA777ER : I dont think any more Combis are being certified - its a certification issue IIRC.
70 Flyingchoirboy : I actually think the exact opposite. I believe both BA and CX will be customers in the future. What do either airline have to lose by operating this
71 EI321 : There wont be any more combis. They cant get certified these days.
72 Post contains links Keesje : Has LH included an option to convert the 20 x 747-8I into 747-8F in the contract? I think it would be smart, reducing the risk ending up as a sole ope
73 CHRISBA777ER : It is my understanding that both airlines have a VLA requirement, and if you take the 748I vs A388 then there are pros and cons to both. The A388 may
74 EDDB : Well no one would doubt that a converted one is cheaper than a new, but question is who would convert them if there is only a very limited number of
75 EI321 : Heres a possible senario: If LH order the A350, convert the 20 748i to 20 748F or even 20 777F. This gives a good MD11F replacement. They then replac
76 EDDB : Well possible, except that they would get their 748Is from 2010 on but the A350-1000s earliest 5 years later! They would need something that is avail
77 Art : With Boeing predicting 400+ large airplanes (ie 747's) being retired 2006-2026 and allowing for a proportion of the remaining frames being converted t
78 TommyBP251b : True, but it made it's first flight on 25th october 1991. First deliveries were in March 1993 to LH and AF. The first 744 was delivered in 1989 to NW
79 SEPilot : The problem is that now we have airliners appearing that will offer better CASM than either the 748 or A380 in a smaller size. Airlines don't care ho
80 ZKSUJ : At the moment it looks like the 77w is being prefered. My personal opinion is that there is only so much you can do to offer point to point and frequ
81 EI321 : What sort of realistic CASM advantage will the 748I have over the 77W?
82 EDDB : Serious? They are satisfied as long as their load factor is right and don't care about losing market share cause all the other airlines competing wit
83 SEPilot : If they are filling their planes and making money why should they? If there is that much demand they can add more flights (unless there are slot rest
84 Stitch : While a true combi is no a possibility, they could get a "747-8M with a fixed partition between the passenger and freighter sections. Sorry. LH conti
85 CHRISBA777ER : You just know SunExpress or Condor will end up with 787s for exactly this reason. I can totally see their mainline fleet getting 787-8s, and A359/10s
86 Post contains images Stitch : If they want it, all they have to do is order it and Boeing will submit it for certification.
87 SailorOrion : It has been mentioned many many times that LH has (currently) no interest in the 783 as A300 replacement. They've also said that they find the 788 to
88 Atlantaflyboy : It also seems to me that there are some 747-400 Operators out there who may not yet be ready to replace those aircraft as they have several good years
89 Columba : Nico Buchholz the fleet planer of LH said this order is for the 747-8I only. I doubt they would order the A346 but the A350-1000. Condor will not be
90 Art : I understand this argument. Why don't the airlines? Why don't they simply order the 787-800 from now onwards and forget about the A350XWB, 777, 748-I
91 EDDB : I'll save some time and quote myself.... I doubt that he would ever make all details of the contract public, guess it's up to us to speculate... And
92 Post contains images EK413 : With a lucrative carrier such as LH launching the PAX version of the B747-8Intercontinental this program will fly high... EK413
93 Columba : No doubt about additional A380s but I think there will be no additional A346s.
94 SEPilot : Not making money means to die slowly (or quickly) in any business. Those costs are all figured into the CASM. It will cost less per seat to fly 2 ful
95 SEPilot : These considerations are what caused most airlines to jump on the 747 bandwagon in the 70's, and look at the results. If you fill your planes consist
96 Post contains links EDDB : Making up things I never said wont help.... I NEVER (and please read my posts again) assumed that there is only the black-white wrong-right possibili
97 Post contains images JRDC930 : So much for the 748i... it sounds like it will survive as a freighter only which to me is the worst fate any airplane can have, hauling cargo from the
98 FlyingClrs727 : Plus two 787's combined will have much more revenue cargo space than one A380, so they could have higher RASM.
99 DeltaDC9 : The 747 hauls half af all air cargo in the world, which is what it was originally desiged for. 250 747s are dedicated freighters and that number keep
100 Art : Sorry, I was referring to the small increase in size just before the specification/design (don't recall which) was frozen.
101 Flighty : Well, I doubt the 787-8 will have lower CASM than the 747-8. Doubt it very much. Just as you say, the 787 will be full "more of the time." Additional
102 SEPilot : I didn't say you did. My point is that pursuing market share at the expense of profit will send you into bankruptcy sooner or later. Your other point
103 CygnusChicago : Sometimes making money, requires long term thinking, and that may require short term losses. Ever heard of prisoners dilemna?
104 Bmacleod : The hottest large airliner right now seems to be the 77W with 30+ orders just in the past month. Now I don't know if AC can claim credit for this but
105 EDDB : Since we were both clever enough to start our airline in an industry upswing with "plenty of traffic" like you said, I suppose I will be able to fill
106 DeltaDC9 : Are you talking about interior width? That increased due to the thinner walls. Dont recall anything else.
107 Art : I don't recall precisely but I think the capacity of the of the 787 was increased by about 10? seats after the A350 had been launched, bringing it cl
108 DeltaDC9 : The 340 is significanly cheaper to purchase than the 777 for one thing, so the total cost of operation over ten years is not just based on the airpla
109 Post contains images Dank : And it is why as fuel prices have risen, the balance tilts more to the 777NGs vs. the 340NGs (as fuel becomes a bigger portion of the total costs). I
110 XT6Wagon : Ah, I'd like to point out that a SINGLE 787 will have more revenue cargo volume than a A380....
111 ZKSUJ : I really hope so too. My personal opinion is that the 77W is a nice aircraft, but I do not see a point in airlines ordering it when expecting deliver
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