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Rolls-Royce To Surprise Us On 787?  
User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 14270 times:

GE have taken a strong lead on the 787. Winning all the Chinese business except Air China and then getting the huge Qantas order have put them well ahead.

But there are some intriguing hints on the RR website that they have something up their sleeve.

Celebrating that the 787 which is revealed on Sunday will have Trents and not GEnx engines under the wings, RR issued a press release yesterday (4th July) which includes...

Including business won but not yet announced, orders have been placed for over 500 Trent 1000 engines by 15 operators and four leasing companies.

http://www.rolls-royce.com/media/showPR.jsp?PR_ID=40515

OK, the "four leasing companies" are ILFC, CIT, LCAL and Pegasus but what about the "15 operators"? Even allowing for two RR-powered BBJs (= 2 "operators") that still leaves three airlines (or at least "operators") to account for. Moreover, the Boeing website lists 115 RR orders to which we can add 10 for Avianca making 125. But "over 500 engines" implies double that number of orders.

I assume that "orders" includes options and commitments so we may not be looking for 125 additional firm orders but there must still be some healthy business in the pipeline.

So, of the announced orders where an engine choice has not been announced, which three airlines could credibly have signed already for RR Trents?

Singapore Airlines (with five[!] versions of the Trent already orderted or in service)?
Kenya Airways (who chose RR for their 777s)?
Arkia (an operator of RR on their 757s for many years)?
Royal Jordanian?
Virgin?

And will all be revealed on Sunday?!  spin 

65 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 14238 times:

But there are still several UFO 787s orders on the books. It sounds like three of these are gona be RR powered. This could easily include QR x 30, since they will have the RR powered A350.

User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 2, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 14224 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 1):
This could easily include QR x 30, since they will have the RR powered A350.

Hey. Hadn't even thought of the UFOs! You're right...  bigthumbsup 


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29690 posts, RR: 84
Reply 3, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks ago) and read 14205 times:
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Hopefully most, if not all, of the UFOs will come forward on Sunday.

User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks ago) and read 14077 times:

RR doing ~50% on 787 and 100% on A350XWB.

Boeing sees more then 6000 twin aisles for the next 20 yrs. http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/images/lg_highlights_cmo07.gif

Luckely GE is protecting it's interest on the 777/GE90.

Smart business decision.



User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 5, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks ago) and read 13998 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
RR doing ~50% on 787

Fingers crossed but it's GE in the driving seat right now.

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
So, of the announced orders where an engine choice has not been announced, which three airlines could credibly have signed already for RR Trents?

Maybe I've forgotten an obvious candidate: Aeroflot will have Trents on the A350s and have chosen RR for their A330s.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29690 posts, RR: 84
Reply 6, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks ago) and read 13972 times:
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Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
Boeing sees more then 6000 twin aisles for the next 20 yrs. Luckely GE is protecting it's interest on the 777/GE90. Smart business decision.

Might very well turn out to be that way. Those 6000 frames will include A330s, A340s, 777s, 787s (including HGW 787s), A350s, and (possibly) Y3s. GE plays in four of those markets now, will definitely play in a fifth, and wants to play in all six if Airbus will let them.

Looks to me like they have their bases pretty well covered.


User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 7, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 13899 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
GE plays in four of those markets now

Forgive me if I posit that not many of those 6,000 will be A340s with CFM...  Wink (Or,for that matter, A340s with RR...  Sad ) Nor should GE expect significant further orders on the A330. They've certainly got the 777 wrapped up but both GE and RR have a lot riding on the 787.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
and wants to play in all six if Airbus will let them.

I think the jury is still out as to whether it's Airbus or GE who is reluctant to get into bed. GE say they want to; Airbus say GE don't want to badly enough.

GE say they want to do it but Airbus in insisting on a ring first - and everyone knows that GE is already engaged!


User currently offlineAerokiwi From New Zealand, joined Jul 2000, 2634 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 13793 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 7):
GE say they want to do it but Airbus in insisting on a ring first - and everyone knows that GE is already engaged!

Haha! Nicely put  Smile

I'm assuming the tussle is over GE being willing to go on the -800 and -900 but not the -1000, whereas Airbus probably wants them only if they go for all three.

If someone could clarify, has the -1000 even been launched? Has the -900?


User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 9, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 13764 times:

Quoting Aerokiwi (Reply 8):
If someone could clarify, has the -1000 even been launched? Has the -900?

Yup, all three. Qatar have ordered each version. No-one else has yet gone for the -1000. Some airlines have chosen the -800 and -900 but not yet specified the mix. They can probably afford to wait a year or two.  Wink


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29690 posts, RR: 84
Reply 10, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 13764 times:
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Quoting Aerokiwi (Reply 8):
If someone could clarify, has the -1000 even been launched? Has the -900?

Yes, both received launch orders at Paris.

I expect that about the time Airbus is ready to announce final design freeze, GE will be ready to announce their involvement on the A350 program to at least the A350-800 and A350-900, and I expect Airbus to capitulate and allow them to power only those two variants. GE needs to be assured Airbus will not raise the stakes yet again by having the final A350 spec require even more power, putting it farther out of reach of the GEnx series and Airbus needs GE to maximize the sales of the A350-800 and A350-900 (I expect the A350-1000 and A350-900R/A350-900F to be a small enough (<1000 frames) market to warrant RR being a single supplier).

[Edited 2007-07-05 13:32:53]

User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 11, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 13721 times:

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
So, of the announced orders where an engine choice has not been announced, which three airlines could credibly have signed already for RR Trents?

Singapore Airlines (with five[!] versions of the Trent already orderted or in service)?
Kenya Airways (who chose RR for their 777s)?
Arkia (an operator of RR on their 757s for many years)?
Royal Jordanian?
Virgin?

Its early for me here, but I still don't see how the lessors and these carriers can get them to 500 engines--even if QR were included (as the recipient of the 30 UFO's)? If the 500 number is correct, there are likely orders that have been firmed but not announced.



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 13663 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
I expect that about the time Airbus is ready to announce final design freeze, GE will be ready to announce their involvement on the A350 program to at least the A350-800 and A350-900, and I expect Airbus to capitulate and allow them to power only those two variants.

Lets not forget Airbus has an engine and more then 150 A350XWB's including -1000 ordered.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_orders

The Emirates have taken a 3% stake in EADS & will order 100 twin aisles in the next few weeks/months.

They indicated they are interested in the bigger 787/a350 variants only & they need to have LAX range.

EK is a big time GE customer and no doubt has send a Request For Information they have to answer.

Exiting situations for GE.

Wait & See = loosing market share.


User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 13, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 13648 times:

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 11):
I still don't see how the lessors and these carriers can get them to 500 engines

I actually think you're right. To reach 500+ firm orders they need another 100+ frames. And if they are talking about 3 more customers then I just can't see it.

One possibility is that RR have picked up the lion's share of the Paris ILFC order for 50 - but I doubt if that has happened.

Another possibility is that the five additional operators don't include the two BBJs but are Aeroflot, Singapore, the unannounced order for 30, Virgin plus one more. That could reach 100 additional frames. But it ain't gonna happen. RR aren't going to neglect the chance to list two BBJ customers as "operators". So that leaves three airline customers and however you crunch the numbers that isn't 100 frames.

So we're back to...

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
"orders" includes options and commitments

That's still OK. I'd assume that most of those will be built. But it isn't the same as firm orders and it still won't bring them level with General Evil - however they spin it.

Naturally, I'd be more than happy to be proved wrong.

Off topic, IB results come out in 15 minutes so I'm a bit hyper. Apologies...  spin   pray   hyper 

(Those of you who know what I'm talking about will understand. The rest of you needn't worry...)


User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6482 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 13546 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
RR doing ~50% on 787 and 100% on A350XWB.

Let's not forget that GE has the 747-8 to supply for, which currently just about numerically negates Rolls' A350 base.



When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 15, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 13500 times:

Quoting N328KF (Reply 14):
Let's not forget that GE has the 747-8 to supply for, which currently just about numerically negates Rolls' A350 base.

I'm not going to quarrel with that for one minute. But which will be selling at 100-200 a year a decade from now - the 748 or the A350?

(OK, perhaps neither of them but you get my point.  Wink )


User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6482 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 13481 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 15):
I'm not going to quarrel with that for one minute. But which will be selling at 100-200 a year a decade from now - the 748 or the A350?

I do get your point, but in a decade, we're talking about a whole new ballgame, with several market segments likely involving new players.



When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 17, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 13429 times:

Quoting N328KF (Reply 16):
I do get your point, but in a decade, we're talking about a whole new ballgame, with several market segments likely involving new players.

2017...? Point taken. But let's see. There's unlikely to be any new model from Airbus by then but there may be new variants of the A350 and A380. The 777 will be on its last legs but new versions of the 787 may have taken its place. Y3 is the big unknown.

Let's just say that I'd rather be selling engines for the A350 for delivery in 2017 than for the 747-8.  Wink


User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 18, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 13404 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
EK is a big time GE customer

With A300, A310 and 777. But they've nodded RR's way too with A330s, 777s and A340s. In fact, where there has been a choice, they've preferred RR over GE - on the A330 and 777.

So an engine for EK 787s? Too close to call. I'd toss a coin!


User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 13388 times:

I think that both GE and RR are smart and are playing to there strengths here . i believe that the 787HGW varients would be comming out in the middle of the next decade and GE will definately want to be a strong player in that as those varients woud sell well into the decade after that . The key question is going to be the difference in the engines required for the 787HGW and the XWB-1000 etc and the cost envolved , can a 787-9HGW , 787-10 market sustain profitably 2 manufacterers with redesigned engines ( redesigned/upgraded Genex and Trent) ? Similarly can the A350-1000 market sustain that aswell ? Another thing that needs to be kept in mind would be what boeing is telling the engine makers about a potential 777NG upgrade and a future Y3. The engine makers would know more then we would and if the Y3 requires brand new engines then can GE work and sustain new engine development almost every 5-6 years starting late this decade ? I think that GE would eventually join the XWB team but they are waiting to see if they can get away with presenting the GENEX without many mods and only compete in the -800 , 900 and let RR take the -1000 model while they have a monopoly on the 787-10 and the HGW , which i doubt would be the case however .

User currently offlineAmirs From Israel, joined Dec 2003, 1333 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 13388 times:

Quoting N328KF (Reply 14):
Let's not forget that GE has the 747-8 to supply for, which currently just about numerically negates Rolls' A350 base.

Since GE has exclusive rights on 748, wouldn't most airlines prefer to get 787 with GE for the possibility they might get 748 down the line?


User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 21, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 13330 times:

Quoting Amirs (Reply 20):
Since GE has exclusive rights on 748, wouldn't most airlines prefer to get 787 with GE for the possibility they might get 748 down the line?

I'd suspect not many airlines will end up with a need for both the 787 and 747. NW comes to mind, as does JAL & UA, but this combined market isn't that large IMO.



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 22, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 13318 times:

Quoting Amirs (Reply 20):
Since GE has exclusive rights on 748, wouldn't most airlines prefer to get 787 with GE for the possibility they might get 748 down the line?

So far 35 airlines have ordered the 787 (excluding those who are only leasing) and not one (not one) has ordered the 747-8. I don't see it being a factor.


User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 23, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 13294 times:

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 21):
NW comes to mind

And they've ordered RR Trent 1000s...


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29690 posts, RR: 84
Reply 24, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 13276 times:
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Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
Lets not forget Airbus has an engine and more then 150 A350XWB's including -1000 ordered.

Yes, and let's not forget that GE had the contract for a good chunk of those 150 planes when they were A350NWEBs ("Not Wide EnoughBodies").

It was Airbus, and not GE that changed the requirements so drastically. And it was this drastic change in requirements that looks to have cost GE a large number of sales.

GE was supporting the A350 before RR was, so I find it rather cheeky for Airbus and Airbus Aficionados to now chastise GE for not immediately launching a new engine program. If the A345/A346 had proven to be more popular, and RR was making some nice coin on the Trent 500, would they have been so quick to move to the XWB?

PM may take issue with the following, but IMO, RR was essentially frozen out of the 300-500 seat market by GE and the 777. And the original A350 wasn't going to get them back into it. They essentially had to wait for the 787HGWs and Y3 to come. The Trent 500 was a money-losing program for them. They'd have done better to bribe GE for a share of the 777 and never gone with the A345/A346.

Also IMO, RR jumped on the XWB because they had no choice. GE does, but only in that while they must support the A350 (unless the 787HGW/Y3 is closer then we think), they do not have to support all three models because GE already effectively owns the 300-500 seat market with the 77W and 747-8I and will continue to do so until 2013 at the earliest. And after 2013 they will be in position to be a strong player on the 787HGW and Y3, both of which will give the A350-1000 a run for her money because most 77W replacement RFPs won't happen until 2020 or later and the A346 has less then 150 sales and the 77W is winning A346 replacement and expansion RFPs now.

The A350-800 and A350-900 will be where the bulk of the action is, if for no other reason then the large existing fleets of A330s and A343s that will make the A350 more appealing. And GE will be there if they can make the GEnx work for less then or equal to $500 million (maybe $1 billion if that is what is needed for the 787HGW, as well). But I don't see them throwing out $2 billion or more for a brand new engine for the A350 unless it will also hang under the A380-800R, A380-900, and Y3.


25 Lumberton : Not to debate your point, but in today's MRO environment where engines are can be sold with maintenance contracts, is the "commonality" argument as v
26 Post contains images Keesje : Also EK ordered 80 GE GENX engines for the 747-8s recently.. GE is a sub contractor for the A350, Airbus is not a subcontractor for the GENX lets kee
27 Post contains images WINGS : They also had a choice between the Trent 900 and EA7200, to equip their A380 fleet, yet they went with EA instead of RR Regards, Wings
28 Atmx2000 : I suspect that if there is a Y3, it will likely be a single engine maker aircraft. Whoever signs up will likely have to invest in the airframe. Since
29 Lumberton : We learned that today Dubai Int'l has purchased a 3.1% stake in EADS, virtually assuring the selection of the A350XWB over the 787. Since EK is known
30 Post contains images Keesje : or an inbetween solution via an EA GP 7000 derivative ..
31 Albird87 : Dont forget that there are still some big airlines that havent decided what aircraft (787v A350, 748vA380) to choose for their fleet renewal. there is
32 Stitch : Fair enough, but if Airbus wants to play hard-ball, then they need to consider the risks of doing so... Why not? The 77W continues to sell well and t
33 Atmx2000 : I would be surprised if they committed to anything before the end of the year. I suppose the argument exists that if they don't sign up quickly they
34 DarkBlue : Don't forget GE gets to sell twice as many engines on the 748 as they would on the A350. And beyond that, they own 100% of this market, whereas optim
35 PM : Couldn't agree more. (Hence a BA order for 748s with GE and 787s with RR is entirely credible.) But I was responding to the argument that airlines wi
36 Elvis777 : Hi Keesje, You sound a bit bitter my friend. Dont be. The 350v3 will sell like a lot so who cares if those pesky folks from Ohio are on board or not.
37 Stitch : I wonder if Y3 will really be that low in sales. I mean Boeing and Airbus both say 6000 birds in the next 20 years. Yet when you add in every A300, A
38 Rverginia : Don't foget that when an engine maker says they sold 500 units, that is 250 airplanes. Plus, it is not unheard of for airlines to order spare engines
39 JAAlbert : Why is RR doing so much better in 787 engine orders than GE? Is one engine superior to the other in objective data?
40 Glideslope : In this situation it is protecting your shareholders when dealing with a company known for it's inability to make up it's mind. GE is the most divers
41 Glideslope : IMO, because at this time they offer a better product.
42 Stitch : Actually, I believe GE has a pretty strong lead over RR on the 787 at the moment. It has been explained to me that the GE offers slightly better fuel
43 Post contains images Glideslope : I do.
44 DarkBlue : For "announced" 787 orders, GE has sold twice as many engines as RR. Even if you include RR's claim to having won orders for over 500 engines, this s
45 Elvis777 : Howdy Keesje!! Does this mantra apply to airline manufacturers too? By golly I think it does! Peace Elvis777
46 Post contains images Keesje : Hi folks how many additional 777s do we think Boeing will sell in the coming years & to who? 200, 300, more ? How many will be GE, PW and RR powered?
47 Elvis777 : Howdy Keesje, Why do you think GE has decided not to put a driver on the 350v3 wing? If the case is self evident that the 350v3 (panels and all) will
48 Post contains images Lightsaber : I'm very curious as to how many are firm orders versus options. Hey, if EK steps into the 787 game... Ummm... most airlines would know ahead of time
49 Post contains links Keesje : Hi Elvis you obviously missed some news, it´s a bit different then you think. GE is not willing to build an engine for the A350-1000 because they wa
50 Post contains links and images Stitch : A recent article in Aircraft Value News brought up that very same point - Airframe / Engine Combination Values (by Stitch Jul 4 2007 in Civil Aviatio
51 Post contains images PM : Oh, that's not fair. True, Boeing took forever to decide how to turn the 777 into the 777NG (remember the extra thrust from the APU?) and the Sonic C
52 Elvis777 : Hi Keesje!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nah man I get it. I just like repeating what the other guys said about GE not having the technical prowess to d o another eng
53 Dynkrisolo : No need to wonder. 396 engines firm, including 80 engines from unannounced customers. See
54 Post contains images PM : See what? So the other hundred or so (= 50 planes) are options? It would make sense.
55 Post contains images Lightsaber : You tease us! Lightsaber
56 Post contains links Dynkrisolo : Oops http://www.rolls-royce.com/civil_aer...ucts/airlines/trent1000/market.jsp
57 Post contains images PM : " target=_blank>http://www.rolls-royce.com/civil_aer...t.jsp Huh. I never even knew that page existed! Thank you. So, that gives us our four leasing c
58 Stitch : GE wasn't afraid of sharing the 787 engine market with the A350 engine market, so I really am somewhat skeptical to believe that GE will not join the
59 PM : @ Stitch Reply 58 I think that's as good an analysis as I've read about the position of GE on (off?) the A350XWB. I still wonder what the rush is. Air
60 Stitch : I wonder if the airlines are hedging their bets by signing up RR, but doing so with the flexibility to cancel. So if GE comes out with an engine that
61 Post contains images PM : I hope not (!) but I can see the argument... Dunno but most Trent 700/800 operators seem to have gone for the RR TotalCare package so it seems reason
62 Duncank : Interestingly enough part of the festivities for Sunday's 787 roll-out is the participation by one of each of Boeing's models in a flyby. The 747 arri
63 Post contains images PM : I wonder if they gave any consideration to sharing out the engines? (Probably not!) Omega 707 = PW (?) AirTran 717 = RR FedEx 727 = PW AS 737 = CFM R
64 Burkhard : I thought Lufthansa is an airline, but maybe it isn't. And aren't there several cargo orders???
65 PM : No, you were correct. Lufthansa is an airline - a big German one. I've flown on it several times. It's quite good. Hope this helps.
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