DAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 4 Reply 1, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 12018 times:
This is no doubt a classic battle for business between the titans. I think the problems with the A-380 production and the continual re-designs of the A-350 series may hurt Airbus chances a tad here, but not much more than that. I think this will be a split order for some A-380, some 777 & 787.
I found this interesting. I thought many people on here dismissed the 747-8I totally, but it seems that at least BA is looking at it. Though as much as I would like to see a 748 in BA's livery, I don't know why BA won't order a ton of 77W's. They already operate an extensive fleet of 777's and some with the GE90. My guess is they go with 788's and 789's with some 77W's and a few 380's.
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
Yes, they must be considered the favourites. But there seems little doubt that BA are looking very seriously at a number of Airbus models. They made flattering comments about the A330 when they ordered four more 777-200ERs, suggesting that it was commonality with their existing fleet that swung it. The implication must be that if they were starting with a clean sheet of paper the A330 would have had an excellent chance.
Anyway, the four 777-200ERs aren't part of the fleet replacement programme and should be seen as a top-up of existing capacity. I still wouldn't rule out a BA order for A330s - though only if they are also buying other Airbus widebodies.
The A380 seems to have the best chance at BA. They may well order both the A380 and 747-8i (though I doubt it) but a BA order for A380s has looked likely for several months. I'd actually be surprised now if the don't order it.
The wild card here is the A350. I think a BA order for the A380 is likely and I could see an order for the A330 in certain circumstances. But a BA order for the A350 would be astonishing.
Quoting EA772LR (Reply 2): I don't know why BA won't order a ton of 77W's.
I agree. It seems an obvious fit for BA but we're told that it isn't under consideration.
So does that leave us with a BA order for 787s looking most likely and everything after that is up for grabs?
Elsewhere I've guessed (which is all I can do) at a BA order for 787s, 777-300ERs and A380s. That still makes sense to me. (Though I confidently expect to be proven wrong. Again!)
Sketty222 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 1772 posts, RR: 4 Reply 4, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 11570 times:
Quoting PM (Reply 3): So does that leave us with a BA order for 787s looking most likely
This would make sense though. Open skies is nearly upon us and if BA can build up a good market on the EU-US flights with their 75's then the 787 would be a perfect aircraft to take over on these routes.
SEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6256 posts, RR: 39 Reply 5, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 11457 times:
Quoting PM (Reply 3): I still wouldn't rule out a BA order for A330s
Why would they order A330's at this point? Wouldn't 787's make more sense? I would expect BA to hold off on aluminum planes that will be obsoleted by either the 787 or A350; I would expect them to hold off on 777's for replacement for this reason. As there is no CFRP VLA on the horizon they will probably order the 748 or A380, or both. I could see them ordering 788's to replace the 767's and A350-1000's to replace the older 777's, or, if they don't like the A350 then pressure Boeing to launch the 787-10. Their 777's aren't that old; it would be worth it to hold off until a more economical plane was available rather than having the newest obsolete planes on the block.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
DL767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 11371 times:
i think it is good that BA is following LH and looking at both the A380 and the 748i, as for the A330, im guessing that is a incentive for them to buy the A350 but since they do not have any A330's in their fleet right now im guessing BA would not care about this. I see BA ordering the A350 as a 777 replacement (but aren't most of the 777's pretty new?) The 787 makes sense for them to replace the 767/some 757's and also use something like the 789 as virgin atlantic will. I think the A380 will be a must but i believe they will also order the 748i like LH. They may order more 777's as a filler until they can get these planes.
Geo772 From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2004, 497 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 11202 times:
I think the A380 is highly likely, although not in large numbers no more than about a dozen.
To complement them at the larger end of the market there is the 748i, 77W and A350-1000. The 77W and A350 should allow BA to take out cost faster than revenue compared with theold 744s that they would be replacing. However an increase in fleet size would be needed to facilitate growth.
At the smaller end of the order, the 788 looks on paper to be the best possible 763 replacement. The A332 would only win it in my view on delivery schedule and initial cost of ownership. I think the A350 might be too large an aircraft for some of the current 763 operated routes.
Flown on A300B4/600,A319/20/21,A332/3,A343,B727,B732/3/4/7/8,B741/2/4,B752,B762/3,B772/3,DC10,L1011-200,VC10,MD80,1-11
Bringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 11124 times:
I cannot imagine BA never operating the A380 ! It just doesnt sound and look right . But that doesnt rule out the 748I either , they may decide to go LH way and order both types . The 787 at this time is stronger in my opinion but boeing would be working overtime to sell BA the 748I as After LH every thing has been hush hush and they need more blue chip airlines to order the 748I .
Boeing74741R From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2007, 1103 posts, RR: 0 Reply 12, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 10912 times:
I can't see the A330 ever making it into the BA fleet unless it is part of a deal for A350XWBs a la SQ (if anything). I also can't see any more 777-200ERs being ordered in double figures, considering some of them have been in the fleet for 10 years or so now? If anything there may be future 777 orders as 'top-ups'.
The A350XWB would make a good long-term 777 replacement unless Boeing develops a 777NG family using 787 technology and composites, and more fuel-efficient engines should they be produced. All these 777/787 deals can't run on forever if one family still contains technology introduced before the 787 came about.
As for 747-400 replacement, my money is on 747-8i alongside a small order for A380s to cater for routes like JFK. Can't really see the 777-300ER making the BA fleet.
Whatever happens I can see this being the lucrative order of the year for BOTH Airbus and Boeing, and will be interesting to watch!
WAH64D From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 966 posts, RR: 15 Reply 15, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 10780 times:
Quoting SEPilot (Reply 5):
Why would they order A330's at this point? Wouldn't 787's make more sense?
Because the 763s need replaced sooner rather than later. Waiting 8 years for B787s does not make economical sense when they can have A332/3s much sooner and then a very favourable deal on A350 that will replace equipment on the thinner B744 routes and the B772ERs. I still think BA will take both A380/B748i in limited numbers. IMO the availability of Trent powered A330s tied to a healthy deal on A350 very much makes this fight Airbus's to lose. Walsh was an enthusiastic GE supporter in his EI days, it'll be interesting to see which engines are chosen.
777236ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 16, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 10748 times:
BA have said repeatedly, albeit a while ago now, that only one manufacturer would supply them with widebody aircraft. If that's the case, then it's still not clear who BA would go with.
If Boeing, it would be the 747-8i, 787 and probably 77W. Does this provide sufficient growth for BA who over the last ten years have focussed almost entirely on Heathrow, reducing capacity nearly everywhere else? The 747-8i are a good replacement for the earlier 747s, the 787 are a good replacement for the 767s and 777As, the 77W provides some growth for the 772ER routes.
For Airbus, it would be the A380 and A350. The A380 has been long speculated. Concourse B at Heathrow Terminal 5 has been specifically designed for the A380, and opens alongside the main building in March next year. The A380 gives BA growth on key routes out of Heathrow and with the freighter cancellations, are available before 2012. The A350 provides good growth throughout the 767-777 fleet. BA have shown before that they're willing to completely change their fleet with minimal consideration for commonality between existing types.
If it's a mixture, then the combinations are endless. I can't see BA operating the 747-8i and A380 in parallel, nor can I see BA ordering some 787 to replace the 767s and A350 to replace 777A and for growth.
The big benefit that Airbus have over Boeing is that the A350 is sufficiently larger than the 787 that it provides the growth that BA wants to see from Heathrow. Whilst the 747-8i fits well with BA's current fleet, the A380 fits well with Heathrow.
This is a classic ding dong between the two manufacturers, and it'll be very interesting to see the result.
It does but while the 772ERs are pretty young it may make more sense to wait for A350 or a possible B787-10.
Quoting 777236ER (Reply 17): This is a classic ding dong between the two manufacturers, and it'll be very interesting to see the result.
For once an order that has no obvious outcome. My personal and unbiased feeling is that an A330/A350 combination will be too good a deal to pass up. Then again B748i has no competitor and I don't see how BA can do without it. Boeing are going to have to work very hard to keep BAs longhaul fleet "Airbus free". A B787-10 commitment on Boeng's part is required for this deal to go their way IMO.
EI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 10620 times:
Quoting EA772LR (Reply 2): Though as much as I would like to see a 748 in BA's livery, I don't know why BA won't order a ton of 77W's. They already operate an extensive fleet of 777's and some with the GE90.
But thats like asking why NW, AC, or QF did not just order a ton of A330's instead of the 787. The cost savings of the A350 or 787 over the A330 or 777 are huge in the long term.
EI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 10523 times:
Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 22): 20 years ago, AA's Bob Crandall famously asked Airbus and Boeing for quotes on A300-600s and 767-300ERs, then signed BOTH proposals.
Albeit not in equal measure. A large airline like BA or AA can afford to tailor their fleet needs to suit different missions. The A300 has the cargo and the 767 has the range. I would not die of shock of BA ordered a mix such as 788, 789, A359, A350-1000, A380.
777236ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 22, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 10463 times:
Quoting WAH64D (Reply 18):
It does but while the 772ERs are pretty young it may make more sense to wait for A350 or a possible B787-10.
Yes, which I think is in the benefit of the A350. BA's ultimate longhaul fleet could concievably be A350 and A380. On the other hand, I can't see BA's longhaul fleet being 787 and 747-8i, there's a big capacity gap in between the fleets and at the top end of the scale, where the 747-8i only provides modest growth at Heathrow.
Quoting EI321 (Reply 23): I would not die of shock of BA ordered a mix such as 788, 789, A359, A350-1000, A380.
No, neither would I. But I'd imagine a more tempered appraoch. Feasibly, BA could order 787-8, A350-900, A350-1000, 747-8i and A380.
BlueShamu330s From UK - England, joined Sep 2001, 2514 posts, RR: 25 Reply 23, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 10332 times:
If I might repeat what I posted on a previous thread, about six weeks ago, today's "news" reflects the quandary I suggested BA were in............
BlueShamu330s From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2001, 914 posts, RR: 6
Reply 115, posted Tue Jun 12 2007 21:11:26 your local time (1 month 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 5390 times:
Well, if I might make a contribution, this was always Boeing's contest to lose.
BA are more than acutely aware that, if they commit to the 748i, "the competition" will flood the press with indirect references to the fact that they (BA's competitiors) are commiting to a brand new 21st century airliner whilst BA is plodding along with a re-hash of a re-hash of a design some 40 years old.
Now, don't flame the messenger. This is the known dilemma BA is in, especially since a switch to another manufacturer for long haul would be unprecedented since BA was born. They do credit their premium passengers with an ounce or two of aviation knowledge. They do know that frequent premium passengers will compare BA's offering to others, and they absolutely know for sure that a certain virginal rival will milk any advantage to the absolute maximum.
They also know that any route which fills one or two B744s today will more than surely support A380 ops in the near future.
So, as the fleet planner for BA, do you go for a small percentile increase in seats or do you plan for the future, bite the bullet and go for the A380?
The A380 fits the growth graph WRT route development; the B748 falls short.....much to the exasperation of the planners in BA.
BA does have an allegiance to Boeing for their long haul commitments, and they have an excellent relationship with Rolls; that is exactly why they are in the decision dilemma they currently find themselves in.
If the A380 was a B380, I'm sure this order would have been placed many, many months ago.
The outcome will be fascinating, and I can't wait to see who on here was correct and who will be eating humble pie.
So I drive a 4x4. So what?! Tax the a$$ off me for it...oh, you already have... :-(
Runway24R From United Kingdom, joined May 2007, 46 posts, RR: 0 Reply 24, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 10130 times:
Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see a BA order looking something like this:
30 + 40 Boeing 748i to replace 744
25 + 40 Airbus A350-900/1000 to replace earlier 777 models as well as expansion
15 + 25 Boeing 787-800 to replace their Boeing 767-300ER fleet and expansion
Also am I right in hearing that BA expressed an interest a few months ago in launching a business only airline? If this were to come to fruition I would expect BA to order further 788/789 aircraft to justify a fairly small mainline fleet of 787s. Can anyone confirm or discard BA expressing such an interest please?