Cricket From India, joined Aug 2005, 2936 posts, RR: 7 Posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 1983 times:
Boeing today highlighted their new forcast for the next 20 years for the Indian market for jet aircraft of 70-seats and larger.
This forecast for 911 airframes ($86.0 bn) over the next twenty years is a considerable update from the 856 aircraft ($72.6 bn) that Boeing predicted next year. In fact teh company believes that the Indian market will grow 20 per cent year-on-year over the next five years and at a CAGR of 12 per cent for the next twenty. This is a massive increase from the 2003 market predication that Boeing made which had a market value of $25bn, today Boeing itself has outstanding (or recently delivered) orders for $21 billion from the Indian market, though that is less than ten per cent of Boeings outstanding of $279 bn.
A market break-up goes like this
RJ's - 55
NB - 674
WB - 173
VLA - 9
Though that said, I had to correct Boeing and state that Kingfisher already has 10 A380's on order, and if Boeing predictions were true, there will no additional VLA sold here in the next two decades. Boeing clarified that the forecasts are just that and constantly change and that they will pitch the 748i to AI.
Other nuggets :-
9W's third and fourth 77W's VT-JEC/JED are on their way to India, now! JEC is already at DEL and JED will fly into BOM tomorrow.
VT-ALB AI's second (third) 77L will come to India by mid-August.
No slips in 787-837 delivery dates for AI - the first plane will arrive in May 2008.
The first 739E for SpiceJet arrives November. Boeing is also talking about ExIm financing for SpiceJet.
Scouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3254 posts, RR: 10 Reply 1, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 1963 times:
Thanks for the update Cricket, I thought that IT had only firm orders for 5 A380s at the moment but it is likely that they will firm their 5 options.
Quoting Cricket (Thread starter): No slips in 787-837 delivery dates for AI - the first plane will arrive in May 2008
Cricket From India, joined Aug 2005, 2936 posts, RR: 7 Reply 3, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 1875 times:
Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 1): So they're getting the 787 the same time as ANA?
Sorry, my bad.. The first plane comes in August-September.. the 787 EIS is May!
Quoting Zeke (Reply 2): In the International Herald Tribune article by Santasnu Choudlhury that Air India is looking at ordering another 60 aircraft to meet demand.
Yes, this was pointed out by the Minister as well at the same briefing on Saturday.. but this will take a while - maybe late 2008 is a good timeline.
EI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 1845 times:
Quoting Cricket (Thread starter): Though that said, I had to correct Boeing and state that Kingfisher already has 10 A380's on order, and if Boeing predictions were true, there will no additional VLA sold here in the next two decades. Boeing clarified that the forecasts are just that and constantly change and that they will pitch the 748i to AI.
the forecast might relate to orders not yet made. Dont be surprised to see Air India acquire a fleet of about 10 A380's in the next decade.
MMEPHX From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 6, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 1813 times:
I just love the way these forecasts are so precise...911 frames in the next 19 years. Almost guaranteed to be something different. Still, if it is 911, 700, 850, 940 or whatever the final volume it's a lot of business for someone.
Surprised the RJ forecast is so small. I know the Indian population is massive and growing quickly, which might indicate larger frames, but so is the Chinese population and they are forecasting much larger RJ numbers. Why is that?
Cricket From India, joined Aug 2005, 2936 posts, RR: 7 Reply 7, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 1773 times:
Quoting MMEPHX (Reply 6): Surprised the RJ forecast is so small. I know the Indian population is massive and growing quickly, which might indicate larger frames, but so is the Chinese population and they are forecasting much larger RJ numbers. Why is that?
That was raised - but given that fuel costs in India are a lot higher in India than in other parts of the world thanks to excessive taxes (and always have been) the CASM for RJ's is quite high. The reason Paramount has managed to operate E-Jets so successfully in the south has been due to the fact that they offer a premium product. The forecast does not include props and ATR has been finding India to be an attractive market, in fact ATR's success has meant that Indian carriers prefer 70-seat props to 70-seat RJ's.
Ikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21027 posts, RR: 60 Reply 8, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 1710 times:
Quoting Art (Reply 4): I think that adding a zero on the end of the VLA figure would produce a more realistic figure.
why? 90 is a big number. who's going to buy 90?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
LAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5085 posts, RR: 48 Reply 10, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 1643 times:
Quoting Cricket (Thread starter): In fact teh company believes that the Indian market will grow 20 per cent year-on-year over the next five years and at a CAGR of 12 per cent for the next twenty.
That gives passenger traffic of 960 million by 2027 from the current base of 100 million in 2007. Will the airport infrastructure be ready by then? I would expect BOM/DEL to have 80-100 million passengers each by 2027, if the Boeing forecast for India turns out to be correct.
If the Indian economy grows at about 9% annually for the next twenty years-- and given aviation growth factor of 1.3 of GDP growth for a developing country--then aviation growth should be around 11.7 %(not far from Boeing's forecast of 12%).
DAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 4 Reply 11, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 1603 times:
Wow, thats a bunch of airplanes to sell. I find it interesting that the VLA number is so low.
Art From Lebanon, joined Feb 2005, 2937 posts, RR: 0 Reply 12, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 1558 times:
Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 8): Quoting Art (Reply 4):
I think that adding a zero on the end of the VLA figure would produce a more realistic figure.
why? 90 is a big number. who's going to buy 90?
I think that a few dozen will be bought by airlines that do not currently exist or are not yet internationl carriers. I think that forecasting sales of 9 VLA's to a market that looks like exploding in size in the next 15 years or so is somewhat silly. It suggests that only one or two Indian airlines will order VLA's (or re-order) in the next 20 years.
Cricket From India, joined Aug 2005, 2936 posts, RR: 7 Reply 13, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 1362 times:
Quoting Art (Reply 12): I think that a few dozen will be bought by airlines that do not currently exist or are not yet internationl carriers. I think that forecasting sales of 9 VLA's to a market that looks like exploding in size in the next 15 years or so is somewhat silly. It suggests that only one or two Indian airlines will order VLA's (or re-order) in the next 20 years.
See, unless one of the Indian LCC's gets into hauling loads of passengers abroad I believe large twins such as the 77W, 350-1000 and the planned 787-10 will dominate orders like Boeing predicted. While I do believe that AI will replace its 744's with a VLA I doubt 9W will order any 748's.
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