N917ME From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 730 posts, RR: 1 Posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 8679 times:
With Joe and Co. attempt at taking over a second airline (TZ and YX) failing again, I am curious what other think their next step is? They do have a ot of aircraft coming on line over the next few years, they have pulled some markets recently (MDW BOS) most recently. Will their stock continue to fall? Will shareholders start to question leadership?
I am sure Joe will flood the MKE market and try to make YX bleed, offering "29.00 fares" But, if they were smart, they would learn from what happened when NW tried that.
We pack out BOS flights out of BWI and I understand we are doing just fine at MDW. Joe and company may have failed in your eyes but remember that old addage: He who laughs last laughs hardest! I still have confidence in our CEO.
We are growing and doing well. Only time will tell.
ummm, FL just announced they are dropping that route, so it must be doing great... right?
Not that I wish ill towards FL and the employees, but I am just curious as to what everyone thinks since FL really hasn't discussed much about the future if they did not acquire YX. It seemed like the FL camp was overconfident and felt it was a done deal. The local FL manager even was bragging about how the merger was a done deal.
Crewchief From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 8599 times:
My guess is that FL is not worried about the new aircraft they have on order. They can profitably sell those aircraft. Or thay can cast about for a boatload of new routes. I'm curious about the routes they may open up. It seems to me that they need to add at least one focus area to their existing ATL and Florida areas.
I read in the Midwest press release that TPG is purchasing Midwest though a $15B fund. With resources behind Midwest like that, I doubt FL will go head to head in Milwaukee. And with Southwest and Midwest in Kansas city, I doubt they will go head to head there either.
DAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 8501 times:
They have more aircraft coming on line alright. They are certainly fishing for more new routes. The recently added DAY-LAS, which should work well for them. I have always wondered why they never went into this area with more routes.
Mikey711MN From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1418 posts, RR: 8
Reply 8, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8304 times:
Quoting Drgmobile (Reply 4): A good place to start in discussing the carrier might be to get the airline's name right.
Ironically, I think this whole YX-FL ordeal has raised enough awareness of "Midwest Airlines" that the "Midwest Express" moniker can finally go away.
Back on topic...
Quoting Crewchief (Reply 3): I read in the Midwest press release that TPG is purchasing Midwest though a $15B fund. With resources behind Midwest like that, I doubt FL will go head to head in Milwaukee.
While that's a significant fund, no manager is going to be interested in tapping a vast resource to pour money into a potentially money-losing venture, be it YX on yield-crashing routes where they face LCC competition or anything else for that matter. With that said, there will be little room for YX to slip up from a profitability standpoint, and if Joe's comments regarding YX's exposure are true, I'd almost expect airlines like B6, WN, and FL to smell that blood in the water.
That's a big "if" though...surely the PR campaign in Milwaukee deluded that market into thinking that FL offers a low-value service, and as such may choose YX on sheer principle should they embark on some of YX's bread-and-butter routes, e.g. MKE-BOS, MKE-LGA, MKE-DCA, etc.
Quickmover From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2518 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8270 times:
Airtran has said before, that the vast majority of YX revenue comes from a handfull of routes. I would suspect that they already knew which ones they were, after their due diligence, they know for sure. I would look for more MKE flights if they have the gates to do so.
N917ME From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 730 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 8137 times:
Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 12): That's because people think Joe Loeonard is a God amongst airline CEO's and he'll get his way at no cost. The truth, however, is far from that.
Well his last two battles (TZ/MDW and YX) were lost.
Anyway, it will be intersted to see what their next step will be. I think they will try to flood MKE and compete head to head on the YX routes, however with the YX loyalty, it may be an uphill battle. NW tried twice, while YX was bleeding and still lost.
Joe states in his press release that YX employees should worry about their jobs/future, is it a disservice to shareholders...
How is all cash 16.00/share a disservice to shareholders... the institutional shareholders were in it for a quick buck.. and thats what they got. Do you hear Octavian backing Joe up? Hell no. They are going to make a quick buck on this deal, more that they woukd have got with a FL/YX deal.
TPG helped CO and HP out. CO is one of the best airlines in the states and HP went from BK to purchasing US.
In STL they are going up against AA and WN. Both have very large operations. That would seem less likely. In IND they'd have to take on NW and that would get ugly fast. CMH has SX now so I am not sure if that would be the ideal location. What about DAY? What is their situation?
If FL could stomach a battle with NW at IND they could do well. Now that the Brits have given up control of running the airport here I'd think FL should be able to get what they want. The City of Indianapolis is running the show again and they are notorious for corporate giveaways. With the jobs promise like UA made to get the billion dollar maintenance facility I'm sure FL could get IND to add gates to the new terminal for them to hub from. There is quite an embarrassing list of giveaways by the city. Why not add another to the list?
Daus From United States of America, joined May 2005, 289 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 7901 times:
Quoting N917ME (Reply 14): think they will try to flood MKE and compete head to head on the YX routes,
Joe's intent all along was not just to "win" the MKE market, it was to build a national east/west airline faciliated by a northerly Midwest hub. Beating YK up on a few routes doesn't do much for him. He needs to find his hub. Still could be MKE on some level if he were to grab every available gate.
Quickmover From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2518 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 7866 times:
Quoting Indy (Reply 15): If FL could stomach a battle with NW at IND they could do well. Now that the Brits have given up control of running the airport here I'd think FL should be able to get what they want. The City of Indianapolis is running the show again and they are notorious for corporate giveaways. With the jobs promise like UA made to get the billion dollar maintenance facility I'm sure FL could get IND to add gates to the new terminal for them to hub from. There is quite an embarrassing list of giveaways by the city. Why not add another to the list?
I think that's a good idea. Maybe not a full fledged hub, but something along the lines of BWI or a little larger. There are several other citys where they could do the same thing. Maybe MSP, DTW, or MEM. Frontier has been doing some interesting things in MEM lately.
In STL they are going up against AA and WN. Both have very large operations. That would seem less likely.
All those empty gates at STL may be too tempting for FL to ignore. And many of us here are of the opinion that AA won't fight tooth and nail in STL like they would at MIA, DFW and ORD. Those planes FL has coming down the pike have to go somewhere...ATL is about maxed out for them. Things are about to get REAL interesting. FL may not hub here, but the gates are there for the taking.
STT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 17156 posts, RR: 50
Reply 19, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 7819 times:
There's alot of expansion they can still do from ATL, both domestically and to the Caribbean, Mexico and Canada. Same with MCO, they should continue to expand ATL and MCO. After that perhaps make a play for F9.
Also with regards to expanding ATL and MCO why not bring in X-Jet, ExpressJet is taking a bath on those new routes they started in the Southwest. Bring them in to ATL and MCO.
Indy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4616 posts, RR: 16
Reply 20, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7781 times:
Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 19): All those empty gates at STL may be too tempting for FL to ignore. And many of us here are of the opinion that AA won't fight tooth and nail in STL like they would at MIA, DFW and ORD. Those planes FL has coming down the pike have to go somewhere...ATL is about maxed out for them. Things are about to get REAL interesting. FL may not hub here, but the gates are there for the taking.
If you have a choice between having AA or FL with a large operation at STL who would you pick? I'm sure STL would love to make a pitch to FL to pick up those gates. The question will be what passengers FL targets. Are there any markets out of STL that lack service or sufficient service? For example do 1000 people a day travel to LAS but there is only 2x daily service where FL could add flights and have some O/D to capture? Its going to be hard being the 3rd guy coming in and trying to pick up the leftovers. It would probably be easier for AA or WN to expand than it would be for FL to.
Zippyjet From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 5601 posts, RR: 12
Reply 22, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7725 times:
Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 5): They have more aircraft coming on line alright. They are certainly fishing for more new routes. The recently added DAY-LAS
We recently started BWI-MKE-LAS. Doing quite nicley. Try non-revving on it. We are adding more flights and cities out of my station BWI which is a strong focus city. With the aquisition of new birds, we can beef up a lot of our existing routes. As we head towards the Fall and Winter expect increased service to our Florida destinations.
Goingboeing From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4875 posts, RR: 15
Reply 23, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7707 times:
Quoting Citrus1 (Reply 22): I Think the Topic should be: Midwest future, with Northwest as a backer. Airtran will do just fine, Midwest was not worth nearly 1/2 a billion $.
Agreed. IMHO, AirTran will do just fine. Midwest...well, going private isn't the best news for their employees...I haven't seen many companies that were taken private where the employees didn't suffer. Come to think of it, I can't think of a single airline merger where a whole lotta people didn't get screwed.
Its going to be hard being the 3rd guy coming in and trying to pick up the leftovers.
They're already here, and have already added SRQ to the initial ATL/MCO flights. They do quite a bit of radio advertising, I hear around 3-4 AirTran commericials a day at work. While a full blown TWA-sized hub won't come to pass from FL (or AA/WN for that matter) a decent sized focus city/mini-hub (whatever you wanna call it) is perfectly feasible, say around the size of FL's ops at BWI.
BOS, BWI, TPA, FLL, LAX, CAK, LAS, SEA, SFO for instance would do nicely for FL out of STL, especially if scheduled for connections or thru flights like CAK-STL-LAX or SEA-STL-FLL etc...
Next up: STL-EWR-BTV-ORD-STL
: Exactly what I was thinking when I opened this thread. People's loyalty is to their wallet, period.
: I couldn't agree more. FL flights out of MKE have not been empty by a long shot and their cost structure is among the best. They can keep the fares c
: AirTran not actively seeking a merger. Full Story here: http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070813/airtran_prospects.html?.v=1 The story makes it look like AirTra
: If that was true, everybody would buy the most inexpensive automobile available, not use air conditioning, and never eat out. Instead, people seek to
: I guess it's possible that someone could acquire Airtran, though I'm not really sure who. For most of the legacies, buying FL wouldn't do much for the
: Here's the problem - I just priced a MCI-MCO routing on both. One was for a flight this Friday, returning Sunday. Midwest was $314 and Airtran was $3
: Unless some more gates magically appear (although some of the international service would operate out of E), FL will not be doing too much more expan
: well we know airtran is looking for a 2nd hub... however, as we have seen with WN, a hub is not required to be sucessful. FL could beef up a few focus
: Midwest's low fares on that route are offset by premium fares they can charge on more business-oriented routes such as LGA. That's how it works ... c
: because that worked out so well for the legacies in the late 90's and early 2000's through today as LCCs keep invading legacies gravy routes. That pl
: I think that is probable. There was some talk about it on the finance boards recently, and supposedly it was stated in an Airtran SEC filing. I could
: FL and YX have niches. I see YX and FL ordering more a/c and opening up new markets. FL could add more flights out of MCO and BWI. YX would likely exp
: AirTran could always spend millions of dollars more to go fight it out with Alaska Airlines...though they would end up in the same spot...no where.
: I think if the Q400 idea works for F9, it's something FL might want to consider. FL's try at the CRJ didn't work so well, but the economics of the Q4
: The easiest way to accomplish that would be a merger/takeover of F9, who have been having some difficulty as of the last couple of quarters,
: I have swamp land outside of New Orleans if you want to buy it... He was after 717's. Nothing more, nothing less.
: This has been repeated often, but has no basis in reality. Why would FL be so gung-ho to get more 717's? Additional 717's bring NOTHING to FL. FL has
: NO, hes wasn't just looking for 717's. Building a hub with loyalty is not an easy thing to do. He was looking at a "hub" to create East-West connecti
: Uh huh..... Is that what TPG is after as well? The vaunted last stash of 717's? NWA invested $200 million to squash AirTran's desire to own (lease) m
: Having had to travel for business quite frequently in the past, and in a lesser amount today, I would like to find a company that would be willing to
: It's one thing to go up against the 800 lb gorilla that is DL @ ATL; it's quite another to take on two of them @ DEN. While WN is still building up t
: Who would buy them? Honest question. I have heard this statement a few times by the YX cheerleaders, but could someone show me a firm (accurate) numb
: But the fact is that YX didn't post a Q2 loss...and I believe it was somewhere around 2.8 million dollars this past quarter that YX spent to fight of
: What's the possibility of FL expansion in CLT towards a focus city? US seems to be in dissaray at the moment. How do the CASM and RASM match up betwee
: Ok so I might be wrong there, I thought they did post a loss. None the less according to Yahoo their YOY Q Earnings Growth was -44%. I am pretty sure
: I don't know about last year, but I do know that minus the money they spent against FL, YX would have met analysts expectations for Q2.
: Probably the same passengers they are targeting now, namely those passengers for whom the price elasticity of demand for a flight is extremely high.
: I think Southwest should gobble up AirTran and finally have an Atlanta Hub and a second aircraft type with the 717. I bet they could even make Boeing
: That would be nice for the 717, but we know it won't happen. If WN took over FL it would mean that the 717's days flying in the US would be numbered.
: With AA downsizing it's SJC operation a mini-hub there would make sense for AirTran. Another market they should pursue is ONT. That airport has a prim
: FL could always "make up" with the PTI Airport Authority and begin GSO filghts again....
: Well they were going to open up a "mini-hub" at DFW and have 30 to 40 flights a day a few years ago. Now that was a real success story for them, wasn'
: How about if AirTran opens up new cities that don't already have a LCC? MDT for example? Now there's a city that has been screaming for a low fare air
: Because LCC's require perpetual growth to survive and there aren't any coming off the line at Boeing anymore. Yes, but they were going to have a go a
: I dont think NW ever tried to put YX under.
: You just don't get it do you? FL does not need more 717s. The 73G has better operating characteristics and they have more of those on order than they
: In all honesty, do analysts live in a cave? I can't imagine a single analyst not accounting for acquisition defense in their projections for the quar
: Are you kidding me?!?!?!? Oh no.. What is the world coming to? And the fact that you will try to argue this point.... That's just beautiful!
: Yep. "Hoeksema pointed out that without the costs of defending against the AirTran offer and some expenses involved with hedging fuel, Midwest earned
: 100% Agree. They almost landed them two years ago then supposedly another opportunity came up so they backed out. MDT traffic has been increasing and
: w Thanks, now you just gave me some nightmare material! Nothing against WN. We and WN are totally different cultures. We both have unique good points
: XNA is a market that is just screaming for FL. As to MDT, how are they going to connect it to the network? They're pretty much tapped out presently i
: Not biting on that one. You're just trying to stir the pot.
: Oh they sure did about 3 years ago just as Midwest got very low on earnings and almost took the bankruptcy route. They flooded MKE with non-sense fli
: I'm tired of people speculating about the 717's. Can you not get the clue that FL is buying 737's now... They are gaining speed on an all 737 fleet a
: Airtran recently (last two months in a row) overtook DL as the number 1 carrier here with 24,500+ boardings. People here seem to like what they offer
: Cities that could use FL service: MLB, MDT, XNA, BIL. What about BGR? Hunter
: I don't think MLB, BIL or BGR are really under consideration. Without a hub in MKE, there is virtually no where to connect BIL into the network. I me
: I think BNA is one of the biggest holes in their route structure.
: If FL was still an all-717 carrier and if this was 2011 or later; the notion would have higher validity. If FL wanted additional 717s; they could hav
: Nashville closely followed by San Antonio and Austin
: Who said anything about them retiring them at this point? All I'm stressing is that if all FL wanted was more 717's, someone tell me, why then did th
: I recognize that line of thinking in terms of a hub strategy. But if FL was to set-up something like CAK at CLT and/or MEM, there is sufficient O&D t
: I heard an apocryphal story that BA wanted to shut down the 717 line so much that they gave a really good deal on 737s. Any truth to that?
: There's a little truth in that, yes. But with the 737NG's coming out, there just weren't enough orders coming in for the 717 anymore.
: What does FL's schedule at CAK look like presently?
: Well, let's see.. FL could start connecting dots on unserved or low competition routes: Or they could open up a new city: ORF, BNA, PVD, ISP, COS Or t
: P2P flying is not really working for FL with the exception of a few routes. WN the king of P2P is also scaling back a few routes themselves, 737 might
: CAK 4 x ATL, 2 x BOS, 1 x LAS, 4 x LGA, 1 x MCO, 2 x TPA CLT 5 x ATL, 4 x BWI, 2 x MDW, 1 x MCO DAY 6 x ATL, 3 x BWI, 1 x LAS, 1 x MCO, 1 x TPA FLL 9
: Maybe FL shoud try CAK as a new hub... Little competition, except for CO in CLE about 30mi away.
: Too close to BWI. I think we should expect a lot more flights throughout the network to BWI. DAY might make more sense -- Piedmont had a hub there, a
: On the contrary, that's exactly what it was worth. Investors don't throw money at an opportunity unless they see the value of the opportunity. After
: ...And very little in the way of terminal facilities. From what I saw there recently, not much O&D traffic, either. It would take a MAJOR investment
: TPG paid market value, anything over that Northwest made up the difference, to keep Airtran out (defensive move) Nothwest went to TPG with the deal,
: I've only had time to scan this thread so I add my .02 for what it's worth, may be duplicating what others have said. I still maintain that AirTran co
: I agree with your assessment. One reason people in MKE don't really like AirTran is because they entered the market here with really good fares and p
: Every flight i work out of MKE is full to the brim, so there are plenty of people that like Airtran in the MKE area, Northwest ain't been around for
: Midwest CASM is on par with WN. What data are you looking at? 1999?
: And nearly every YX flight I'm on in/out of MKE is full to the brim. FL and YX both have tremendous load factors, so saying flights into MKE are full
: I have no doubt that's the case for AirTran. But why did they feel the need to scale back in MKE a few years back? I feel they could find other route
: Of course I did, son. The total offer, NWA's share included, is the value of Midwest whether you want to hear it or not. When you bid on something at
: The Delta Connection flight from FSD-ATL is doing so good! They are adding a second daily flight, but it is unknown when they will announce it. They a
: MKEnut--that's an ongoing problem for AirTran, which I as a regular and satisfied AirTran customer have been grousing about at our forum for some time
: That is something even I forget at times. You are worth only as much as someone is willing to pay for you. I mean no disrespect but how does FL have
: To them, but not to the market. This was directed to MKENut, not you. So i'am not trying to tell you anything. I'am done with this post good luck to
: Can I ask why everyone is trying to paint a doom and gloom picture for Air Tran??? I dont see why there is so much debate.... Access-Air
: FL is consistently one of the top airlines for on-time arrival. They were the top mainland airline (HA and AQ benefit from that good Hawaiian weather
: I mean no disrespect but how does FL have a higher-end LCC product? B6 and F9 have TV on board if I am not mistaken. Ok WN offers really nothing in fl
: They had and may still have problems here. The flight I took was extremely late. I was moved to this flight because the flight I was supposed to be o
: Sorry, I didn't mean you when I mentioned inflamming someone with a post. I'm too lazy to look back but someone said I was trying to stir the pot.
: Critrus Critter, welcome to my respected list. That is a great post. Have you ever thought about running for CEO? LOL!
: If you compare CAK and CLT (as you suggested previously), I think it's pretty clear that BOS is really the only gaping hole in the FL route structure
: Word from our Premier/Tourism Minister is that in late 2007/early 2008 we will be getting a new low cost airline to the island that will be serving AT
: I totally agree with this whole heartedly. Then they could've jumped on the 70 - 76 seat band wagon and given those to C8 to run either out of MDW or
: Wouldn't count on it. I imagine NK will try adding that. For all their apparent troubles at the service counter, their flights from ATL seem to do we
: Question to those that have been inpacted by FL's cutting routes after a short period of time. Has anyone written or considered writing letters to FL'
: Believe me i wouldnt count on anything that guy said anyway. lol