LTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 12333 posts, RR: 12 Posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 7318 times:
As some of you know from the news, Hurricane Dean looks like it is headed for the Caribbean in the next few days, and perhaps in the next day or 2, hitting some of the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Cuba then heading into the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall from the Mexico's Yucatan to Florida as up to a Class 5 hurricane in the early to middle of next week. It looks like it could be pretty bad to any land in it's way.
Have any airlines made any decisions today to prepare for this storm, including adding flights to get tourists out of the area, move aircraft, suspend flights?
PlaneGuy27 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 313 posts, RR: 0 Reply 1, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 7318 times:
Press Release Source: Delta Air Lines, Inc.
Delta Takes Steps to Assist Customers as Hurricane Dean Approaches Caribbean
Thursday August 16, 2:39 pm ET
ATLANTA, Aug. 16, 2007 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL - News) customers booked on flights to or from select cities in the Caribbean may make adjustments to travel schedules in preparation for Hurricane Dean, which is expected to affect the region during the next several days.
Customers who purchased tickets by August 15, 2007, and are scheduled to travel August 16, 2007, to August 22, 2007, to, from or through the following cities on Delta, Delta Connection(r) or Delta-coded flights, may make a one-time change without penalty or additional fees if tickets are changed by August 22, 2007. Travel must begin on or before August 22, 2007.
Impacted cities include the following (note: cities may change):
-- Grand Cayman
-- Kingston, Jamaica
-- Montego Bay, Jamaica
-- Punta Cana
-- Santo Domingo
-- Santiago, Dominican Republic
-- St. Maarten
-- St. Lucia
Changes to origin and destination may result in a fare increase. Any fare difference between the original ticket and the new ticket will be collected at the time of rebooking. Customers whose travel plans are affected by cancellations may request refunds or reaccommodation on alternate flights without fee or penalty.
Additional cities may be impacted by this weather system and customers are encouraged to visit delta.com/travelupdates for the quickest and most up to date information. Customers may also call 1-800-325-1999 for flight information.
Indy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4368 posts, RR: 9 Reply 5, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 7185 times:
Dean doesn't look good. Right now it looks like there is a good chance that the storm splits the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane. The difference between this storm and Katrina, Rita and Wilma is that Dean would enter a body of water completely undisturbed by tropical systems. The water is very warm and will support a cat 5 storm. Right now I'd give it a 30% chance that the storm hits somewhere between Galveston and Mobile. That could put MSY or IAH in the line of fire.
Indy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4368 posts, RR: 9 Reply 8, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 7148 times:
Quoting N844AA (Reply 6): I'm supposed to go to Jamaica in the next few days. Should I cancel this trip? It would be a shame, but it would be better to figure that out now rather than later.
Want my honest opinion? Don't go. They are darn near in the bullseye right now. Only question is whether the storm goes just south of the island or whether the eye goes right over it. The odds of them taking a very hard hit right now are too great. I'd consult the airline on that though.
N844AA From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1352 posts, RR: 1 Reply 9, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 7102 times:
Quoting Indy (Reply 8): Want my honest opinion? Don't go. They are darn near in the bullseye right now. Only question is whether the storm goes just south of the island or whether the eye goes right over it. The odds of them taking a very hard hit right now are too great. I'd consult the airline on that though.
Thanks, I appreciate that. If I call up CO, can I expect helpful advice? Or is it going to be "Well, you have the option to change without the fee if you want"? Because I wouldn't expect more than the latter, for a variety of reasons.
New airplanes, new employees, low fares, all touchy-feely ... all of them are losers. -Gordon Bethune
Indy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4368 posts, RR: 9 Reply 10, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 7084 times:
What I might ask is what their hurricane policy is. Maybe call the place you will be staying at as well. Find out what your window of opportunity is to change your reservation whether it be a date change or a cancellation. I think you'll know shortly whether that storm is going to hit the island or not. BTW I believe it is up to 100mph sustained now.
Right now it looks like Jamaica will be in the absolute worst part of the storm. It will be on the right side of the eye. We'll have regular updates on this. I'd like to tell you that there is a good chance that Deal will miss the island but that just isn't the case.
PITops From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1442 posts, RR: 4 Reply 16, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6965 times:
Quoting Indy (Reply 5): Dean doesn't look good. Right now it looks like there is a good chance that the storm splits the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane. The difference between this storm and Katrina, Rita and Wilma is that Dean would enter a body of water completely undisturbed by tropical systems. The water is very warm and will support a cat 5 storm. Right now I'd give it a 30% chance that the storm hits somewhere between Galveston and Mobile. That could put MSY or IAH in the line of fire.
Looking at it now, I would say anywhere from New Orleans to Texas. I doubt Florida will have to deal with this unless we see a real steering current which I don't see happening.
Quoting Indy (Reply 10): BTW I believe it is up to 100mph sustained now.
SLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 3861 posts, RR: 11 Reply 22, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 6846 times:
Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 15): I suspect BZE, CUN, MID and CZM will be added to the lists soon.. Everyone already starting to prepare here...me ...I am taking out my Shutters on Saturday.....hope i don't need them.
Hopefully you won't need them as well. The Atlantic has been so quiet this year thus far, and I guess they come in pairs. Now the Cape Verde season is well underway, and the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will be under fire through mid-October. People in MIA, FLL, PBI, RSW as well as TPA should also take note since projected track errors can vary greatly.
Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 15): AA and CO already seem to be preparing here.....last time CO flew exta flights..even a DC10 to get everyone out.
DL has this one on their home page, yet I go to the CO and AA sites and don't see such.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
Mkorpal From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 90 posts, RR: 2 Reply 24, posted (5 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 6839 times:
This one looks bad. At least we can see it coming. But those along the ocean in Texas might want to look into a vacation in the mountains or something like that. If I were there, I would already be making reservations.
25 Redngold: Nor do I trust AccuWeather... I trust the NWS and my own impressions of the radar and steering factors (although I am not an expert.)
26 Indy: Ah... AccuWeather. Probably my least favorite site when it comes to information. As far as the NWS goes they are ok if you want to interpret the data
27 Chumley: There's a weather blog I visit that consolidates a lot of the various information and models available. I find it to be a good supplemental resource f
28 PITops: Everyone should check out www.storm2k.org . It is a very good amateur website with a really nice forum.
29 DernierVirage: The latest forecast is that Hurricane Dean will hit Martinique at around 1 a.m. Friday morning. Both Martinique and Guadeloupe are on "red alert" for
30 LTBEWR: Jamica seems to be in a direct path for a strong class 3 or a lower class 4 hurricane, along with the Cayman Islands. Per the latest (Fri. Aug. 17th 1
31 Indy: Dean is rapidly strengthening and is a category 3 hurricane and will likely reach category 4 strength by midnight. Look here for the latest Dvorak ima
32 Aerofan: Barbados was not affected. Anyone who wants a tropical isle to visit can consider this
33 Aerofan: Barbados was not affected. Anyone who wants a tropical isle to visit can consider this
34 OB1504: Visible Infrared Water Vapor At the rate Dean is going, he may end up stronger than Wilma at her peak.
35 Indy: The GFDL model has shifted the track dramatically to the right (east). We'll see if the other models shift as well or whether this run was just a bad
36 Indy: New advisory coming out. It isn't pretty. The pressure is rapidly dropping. More later.
37 Indy: Dean is now a category storm with 135mph winds. Central pressure has rapidly deepened to 946 mb. Further strengthening is likely. I hope those who can
38 B777ER: Yes, lets hope..here is the model run....can you say, Katrina II. Shows it as a CAT 5 landfall. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...704_v5d.html?e
39 STXBohn: Well, here on STX, we've had wind, a very small squall line around 12:45 this afternoon and I still have power, DISH, and internet. I was expecting mo
40 N844AA: Hey Indy, I don't want to be hyperbolic here, but seriously, thank you so much for your advice a few posts ago. The mainstream weather sources I had
41 Indy: Glad to help. You would have been down there at the absolute wrong time. My wife is going on a cruise with her aunt in mid September and I had to tell
42 AirTranTUS: The NWS is great when it comes to Tucson weather. Very good information and easy to use. I can easily access weather reports and see the weather read
43 Indy: My objection with the local NWS is the number of false alarms we had last year. It was so bad the local press got on them about it. Severe thunderstor
44 TCFC424: I use the NHC. They have tools that you have to look for, but most of us Plane guys have an inherent interest in weather. I like looking at their disc
45 OB1504: Better safe than sorry, I suppose. If there had been a severe thunderstorm and the NWS didn't issue a warning, I bet that the local press would be on
46 2travel2know: For extra safety, I would add LCE, RTB and SAP to that list. Honduras isn't looking for another Mitch. Word from GCM, still many passengers can't get
47 TCFC424: So are ops in CUN going crazy now? Are airlines sending relief flights or larger aircraft?
48 ABQopsHP: Here in CRP, Dean is still 4/5 days away. However! We got an email overnight from our manager asking us to advise him who of us were planning to evacu
49 Osiris30: You guys in CRP need to keep your eyes on this one big time.. I know what the official NHC track says.. I also know what the trust worthy models (as
50 ABQopsHP: I think everyone all over the Gulf Coast took lessons from Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Everyone Ive spoken to, dont plan on riding this out if its a 3 or
51 Albird87: Well here in GCM the airport is chaos!! There are more flights coming and going!! KX added around 11 more flights today, mostly to MIA, and AA and US
52 Osiris30: Good luck to you sir (sincerely). I know you guys had a pretty rough go not all that long ago, so here's to hoping everyone gets through this one alr
53 Tornado82: I've been biting my tongue over this thread for a couple days now but I have to jump in... First off, where does any (reputable) source say that the h
54 Osiris30: They are trackable using this: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml? That is upadted every 10 minutes with data at 30s intervals when a hun
55 Osiris30: Can't seem to find the edit button???.. so apologies.. I meant to say there are other locations with the model data output as well.. that isn't going
56 Tornado82: Note I said they're untrackable on flightaware. Your average plane junkie on A.net isn't going to go through deciphering that. If it's USAF, it's a W
57 Indy: I have watched the NHC blow some forecasts pretty bad. They have the same tools the other forecasters have. The only difference is that they get call
58 TCFC424: I checked the CUN arrivals and departures...the only oddball that I saw was F9 8534 from CUN to MDW. Checking on F9, it is not a regularly scheduled f
59 Osiris30: Either actually.. Both report in the same format. Forgive the oversight to mention the 130's. Either way I'm amazed what those aircraft get put throu
60 Indy: Here is something to keep an eye on. http://www.climatepatrol.com/imagelo...op1.php?filesource=38&numframes=20 Pardon the small glitch in the loop. Bu
61 Osiris30: " target=_blank>http://www.climatepatrol.com/imagelo...es=20 I prefer: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html You can build your own loops (
62 Indy: I'm not sure how many they have. I have something like 150 different image sets with over 2 million images available for public viewing in my archives
63 Indy: I've looked at a 40 frame loop of the Caribbean. In frames 1 - 20 the storm is moving pretty much due west. In frames 20 to 30 the movement is a bit n
64 Osiris30: I believe the jog you're seeing is temporary.. I expect the resumption of a 270-280 For ~48 hours-~72hours. After that I expect more of a turn to a ~
65 AASTEW: AA's Operations 8/18/2007 KINGSTON 4 B737-MIA 1 A300-MBJ-MIA GRAND CAYMAN (This 3 B737-MIA CANCUN (This is AA normal schedule) 4 B737-MIA 2 B757-DFW 2
66 Indy: What I see is absolutely no accounting for that low off of Tampa. That may be the difference between GFDL and the others. Perhaps it is picking up th
67 MadameConcorde: Tornado82, thank you very much for your long and most informative post. It explains the situation very well. I watched the SpaceShuttle/ISS live from
68 Sebring: Air Canada operated an extra 767-200 section today to MoBay. Should be landing right now in Jamaica
69 CitationJet: My wife flew CUN to IAH today on CO 2749, leaving CUN at 11 am today. She said the airpport ops were normal. CO had two flights to CUN cancel yesterd
70 MadameConcorde: This thread is really interesting. We are getting so much information from you people and at the same time thinking of those really unfortunate who ar
71 ABQopsHP: The cxld flts to IAH yesterday were due to wx at IAH. We had 11 diversions in CRP due to heavy thunderstorms at IAH. As for no one in CUN at the resor
72 ABQopsHP: MadameConcord, I thank you for your concern, since I am one in the posted track of this storm. We will have a better idea once Dean crosses the Yucata
73 MadameConcorde: It's getting very late here but I will be only half-sleeping considering the events, thinking of those like yourself who are right on the hurricane pa
74 CitationJet: CO just posted the following on their website: Effective Friday August 17th only returning residents, work permit holders, and Caymanians will be all
75 TPAnx: One site which no one's mentioned.. http://flhurricane.com Lots of links, models, and level-headed commentary. To those in the strike zone...hunker do
76 Comorin: CUN airport has really improved - well staffed security lanes that are the envy of us NYC travelers. I have a question - since Cancun is not an island
77 UAL747: Glad I already got back from my trip to South Padre Island, on the Texas/Mexico Border. We missed the tropical depression that came through last week,
78 Osiris30: At 150mph, the smallest pebble, rock, lose nut or bolt becomes nearly lethal... in short, while the buildings may be secure, there's no such thing as
79 Osiris30: Sorry for possible spam, but just in from a Hurricane Hunter: 233800 1600N 07053W 6973 02412 9188 +155 +147 226003 007 030 002 03 Minimum central pres
80 LTBEWR: I heard on the news late Saturday afternoon that AA and Air Jamaica is canceling all fights Sunday (and probably Monday) to/from Jamaica. From the 5 p
81 Hiflyer: ATCSCC ADVZY 067 DCC 08/18/2007 CARIBBEAN HURRICANE TELCON_FYI MESSAGE: IMPACTED AREA: HAITI, CUBA, JAMAICA, CAYMAN ISLANDS 1. HURRICANE DEAN PUBLIC A
82 Indy: Normally the message goes out to protect life, limb and property. At this point I say screw property and protect your life. This isn't a Frances or Je
83 Osiris30: Agreed. Now you don't need to run for the hills (depending on where you are), but keep an eye on this thing... 010500 1604N 07112W 6964 02411 9173 +1
84 Indy: The worst thing that can happen for Jamaica is for this storm to stay on a westerly track. If the eye goes directly over the island or just north of
85 Osiris30: Yep. I know I'm just 'reporting' what it's doing. Also interestingly GFDL has shifted well south, *but* and I want to caution this is just *my* take
86 Osiris30: 021000 1613N 07128W 6967 02399 9162 +162 +156 104022 032 038 000 03 916.2 now. That's 2.5mb in an hour, which is pretty rapid intensifiction. Tracking
87 Indy: I'm guessing the storm gets upgraded to cat 5 at 11pm. I think it would be pretty rare to have a cat 4 storm with a pressure that low. Edit: Well ther
88 Osiris30: It's actually not all that uncommon. If the pressure gradient is expanding (and hence the wind field) the wind speeds will actually drop temporarily.
89 Comorin: I see your point! Thanks for the posts so far, very informative. Thanks for your posts too. If I remember my Fluid Mech, force is proportional to squ
90 Indy: I've seen the pressure drop quite a bit and the wind speeds not fall. I completely understand the effects of an expanding wind field (not that this s
91 Osiris30: Apparently we have a double eye-wall situation, which isn't showing up at all on the sat imagery (or wasn't until the 02:15utc). There's another pass
92 747fan: This one isn't looking very pretty right now - the rapid intensification is unfortunately reminding me of Wilma in 2005, which was the strongest hurri
93 Indy: I hope the GFDL model isn't right. It has Dean approaching the Cozumel to Cancun area with a 900mb low and winds of 173kts. I'll go out on a limb righ
94 TCFC424: During the eyewall replacement cycles of these very intense storms, isn't it common to have widely different forecasts due to the "eye wobble" inheren
95 TCFC424: Never mind...it is on NHC's site under latest sat imagery...GOES floater loop data. BTW, in the last few frames it has ticked northward a bit.
96 Osiris30: In short no.. the only time it comes into question is when the eye becomes obscured/fully collapses. This hasn't happened with Dean. Additionally the
97 Indy: Osiris... do you think that looking at the latest water vapor image that the storm may have ingested a little bit of dry air?
98 SJUboeingGirl: Here in San Juan we just had a couple of gusty winds and scattered showers, mostly sunny LOL! I feel sorry for all the islands from the lesser antille
99 Osiris30: Negative. I see two things at play here. First of all there has been a very minor increase in sheer over the system. Almost un-noticable until one th
100 Indy: I'm amazed how well the storm has held together going through these changes tonight. The central pressure has pretty much held on without a problem. T
101 Osiris30: Don't be LOL. It's a big storm and to some extent these deep hurricanes control their own destiny at times, creating localized weather systems around
102 Bennett123: Fortuneately most of the planes at Jamaica can fly out. However the old DC3 could fly again.Also the A300 nose will be a goner if it is still there. D
103 Bennett123: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6953530.stm It sounds as if Jamaica will be hit hard. Hope that everyone remains safe,buildings can be repaired. D
104 MadameConcorde: 230km/h (145mph) winds must be really awful... This is all very scary. Please, people, go as much as you can where it's the safest and try to stay ali
105 TCFC424: On the latest satellite imagery, it looks as if there could be a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico...(Appears to be indicated best with Water Vapor