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Hurricane Dean Affects?  
User currently offlineLTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13120 posts, RR: 12
Posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 8119 times:

As some of you know from the news, Hurricane Dean looks like it is headed for the Caribbean in the next few days, and perhaps in the next day or 2, hitting some of the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Cuba then heading into the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall from the Mexico's Yucatan to Florida as up to a Class 5 hurricane in the early to middle of next week. It looks like it could be pretty bad to any land in it's way.
Have any airlines made any decisions today to prepare for this storm, including adding flights to get tourists out of the area, move aircraft, suspend flights?

153 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePlaneGuy27 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 314 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 8119 times:

Press Release Source: Delta Air Lines, Inc.


Delta Takes Steps to Assist Customers as Hurricane Dean Approaches Caribbean
Thursday August 16, 2:39 pm ET


ATLANTA, Aug. 16, 2007 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL - News) customers booked on flights to or from select cities in the Caribbean may make adjustments to travel schedules in preparation for Hurricane Dean, which is expected to affect the region during the next several days.
Customers who purchased tickets by August 15, 2007, and are scheduled to travel August 16, 2007, to August 22, 2007, to, from or through the following cities on Delta, Delta Connection(r) or Delta-coded flights, may make a one-time change without penalty or additional fees if tickets are changed by August 22, 2007. Travel must begin on or before August 22, 2007.

Impacted cities include the following (note: cities may change):



-- Antigua
-- Barbados
-- Martinique
-- Grand Cayman
-- Kingston, Jamaica
-- Montego Bay, Jamaica
-- Guadeloupe
-- Punta Cana
-- Santo Domingo
-- Santiago, Dominican Republic
-- St. Maarten
-- St. Lucia

Changes to origin and destination may result in a fare increase. Any fare difference between the original ticket and the new ticket will be collected at the time of rebooking. Customers whose travel plans are affected by cancellations may request refunds or reaccommodation on alternate flights without fee or penalty.

Additional cities may be impacted by this weather system and customers are encouraged to visit delta.com/travelupdates for the quickest and most up to date information. Customers may also call 1-800-325-1999 for flight information.

The Delta Air Lines, Inc. logo is available at http://www.primenewswire.com/newsroom/prs/?pkgid=1825



Contact:
Delta Air Lines
Corporate Communications
404-715-2554


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Delta Air Lines, Inc.


User currently offlineTOLtommy From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3295 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 8055 times:

Wow, sucks for CUN......

User currently offlineCloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2454 posts, RR: 10
Reply 3, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 8037 times:

Affect is the verb, effect is the noun. You may want to change your title.


A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
User currently onlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6572 posts, RR: 51
Reply 4, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 7997 times:

Well I have a friend who lives in SXM and I know she's about ready to high tail to it higher ground....

User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4568 posts, RR: 18
Reply 5, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 7986 times:

Dean doesn't look good. Right now it looks like there is a good chance that the storm splits the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane. The difference between this storm and Katrina, Rita and Wilma is that Dean would enter a body of water completely undisturbed by tropical systems. The water is very warm and will support a cat 5 storm. Right now I'd give it a 30% chance that the storm hits somewhere between Galveston and Mobile. That could put MSY or IAH in the line of fire.


Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlineN844AA From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1352 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 7969 times:

I'm supposed to go to Jamaica in the next few days. Should I cancel this trip? It would be a shame, but it would be better to figure that out now rather than later.


New airplanes, new employees, low fares, all touchy-feely ... all of them are losers. -Gordon Bethune
User currently offlineAAJFKSJUBKLYN From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 905 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 7960 times:

AA has the same policy going too, take AAdvantage now before everyone clogs the phones!

User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4568 posts, RR: 18
Reply 8, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 7949 times:

Quoting N844AA (Reply 6):
I'm supposed to go to Jamaica in the next few days. Should I cancel this trip? It would be a shame, but it would be better to figure that out now rather than later.

Want my honest opinion? Don't go. They are darn near in the bullseye right now. Only question is whether the storm goes just south of the island or whether the eye goes right over it. The odds of them taking a very hard hit right now are too great. I'd consult the airline on that though.



Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlineN844AA From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1352 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7903 times:

Quoting Indy (Reply 8):
Want my honest opinion? Don't go. They are darn near in the bullseye right now. Only question is whether the storm goes just south of the island or whether the eye goes right over it. The odds of them taking a very hard hit right now are too great. I'd consult the airline on that though.

Thanks, I appreciate that. If I call up CO, can I expect helpful advice? Or is it going to be "Well, you have the option to change without the fee if you want"? Because I wouldn't expect more than the latter, for a variety of reasons.



New airplanes, new employees, low fares, all touchy-feely ... all of them are losers. -Gordon Bethune
User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4568 posts, RR: 18
Reply 10, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7885 times:

What I might ask is what their hurricane policy is. Maybe call the place you will be staying at as well. Find out what your window of opportunity is to change your reservation whether it be a date change or a cancellation. I think you'll know shortly whether that storm is going to hit the island or not. BTW I believe it is up to 100mph sustained now.


Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlineChumley From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 124 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7864 times:



Quoting N844AA (Reply 6):
I'm supposed to go to Jamaica in the next few days. Should I cancel this trip? It would be a shame, but it would be better to figure that out now rather than later.

Check The Weather Channel or the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center regularly. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Doesn't look like a great idea right now.

User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4568 posts, RR: 18
Reply 12, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7852 times:

Check this...

http://www.climatepatrol.com/forum/33/2815/pg1/index.php#pid10891

Right now it looks like Jamaica will be in the absolute worst part of the storm. It will be on the right side of the eye. We'll have regular updates on this. I'd like to tell you that there is a good chance that Deal will miss the island but that just isn't the case.



Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlineN844AA From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1352 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7826 times:

Yup, thanks guys. I appreciate the help here. The hotel will let us cancel, and MBJ is definitely on CO's list of affected airports. I think we're going to go ahead and call it off.

Right now I'm trying to see if I can find a decent last-minute deal to an unaffected tropical destination, but not surprisingly, there's not much out there. Too bad, it would have been fun.



New airplanes, new employees, low fares, all touchy-feely ... all of them are losers. -Gordon Bethune
User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4568 posts, RR: 18
Reply 14, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7808 times:

What about the Bahamas?


Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlineYellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6185 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7789 times:

Guys..if you want REAL weather info go to www.weatherunderground.com/tropical.....don't waste your time at the USA centric Weather Channel.

I suspect BZE, CUN, MID and CZM will be added to the lists soon.. Everyone already starting to prepare here...me ...I am taking out my Shutters on Saturday.....hope i don't need them.

AA and CO already seem to be preparing here.....last time CO flew exta flights..even a DC10 to get everyone out.

While I feel for all my Caribbean and Mexcian brothers...really and truly the last thing BZE needs right now is a hit....we already have the politicians  Big grin



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlinePITops From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1442 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7766 times:

Quoting Indy (Reply 5):
Dean doesn't look good. Right now it looks like there is a good chance that the storm splits the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane. The difference between this storm and Katrina, Rita and Wilma is that Dean would enter a body of water completely undisturbed by tropical systems. The water is very warm and will support a cat 5 storm. Right now I'd give it a 30% chance that the storm hits somewhere between Galveston and Mobile. That could put MSY or IAH in the line of fire.

Looking at it now, I would say anywhere from New Orleans to Texas. I doubt Florida will have to deal with this unless we see a real steering current which I don't see happening.

Quoting Indy (Reply 10):
BTW I believe it is up to 100mph sustained now.

Correct. NHC just upgraded it to a Category 2.

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 15):
Guys..if you want REAL weather info go to www.weatherunderground.com/tropical.....don't waste your time at the USA centric Weather Channel.

I always get my info from the National Hurricane Center. Screw the Weather Channel. Wunderground is one of the fastest to update info.



Ground Ops, Southwest Airlines, CMH
User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4568 posts, RR: 18
Reply 17, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7766 times:

Quoting PITops (Reply 16):
Screw the Weather Channel. Wunderground is one of the fastest to update info.

Oh so true. The TWC has become a machine of politics. I know I can get good info from Wunderground. I think of them as the weather site for the more knowledgeable user.



Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlinePITops From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1442 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 7705 times:

Quoting Indy (Reply 17):
Oh so true. The TWC has become a machine of politics. I know I can get good info from Wunderground. I think of them as the weather site for the more knowledgeable user.

Exactly. Or you can use the National Weather Service.



Ground Ops, Southwest Airlines, CMH
User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4568 posts, RR: 18
Reply 19, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 7693 times:

Quoting PITops (Reply 18):
Exactly. Or you can use the National Weather Service.

Oh god don't get me started on the NWS. Lets just say I'm starting to put them in the same category as The Weather Channel.



Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlineSketty222 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 1778 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 7661 times:

The best website I know of is www.wunderground.com
It gives up to date info on all tropical storms/ hurricanes and also gives pilot weather reports

I work for BA Holidays and from what I got told at work today, BGI, UVF, KIN, MBJ and GCM are going to be the worst hit
Lets hope that the hurricane doesnt do too much damage

Lee



There's flying and then there's flying
User currently offlineRedngold From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 6907 posts, RR: 44
Reply 21, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 7649 times:

Quoting Indy (Reply 14):
What about the Bahamas?

This storm is well south of the Bahamas latitude, and is being steered by a strong HIGH pressure system that will keep it on a westerly course for several more days.

Also at high risk are Haiti and the Cayman Islands (I see Delta mentioned Grand Cayman.) Cozumel and Cancun could be in the crosshairs after that.

Jeff Masters' Tropical Weather Blog at Wunderground.com is very well written and obviously well-informed.



Up, up and away!
User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4079 posts, RR: 11
Reply 22, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 7647 times:

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 15):
I suspect BZE, CUN, MID and CZM will be added to the lists soon.. Everyone already starting to prepare here...me ...I am taking out my Shutters on Saturday.....hope i don't need them.

 checkmark  Hopefully you won't need them as well. The Atlantic has been so quiet this year thus far, and I guess they come in pairs. Now the Cape Verde season is well underway, and the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will be under fire through mid-October. People in MIA, FLL, PBI, RSW as well as TPA should also take note since projected track errors can vary greatly.

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 15):
AA and CO already seem to be preparing here.....last time CO flew exta flights..even a DC10 to get everyone out.

DL has this one on their home page, yet I go to the CO and AA sites and don't see such.



DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4568 posts, RR: 18
Reply 23, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 7647 times:

Quoting Redngold (Reply 21):
Jeff Masters' Tropical Weather Blog at Wunderground.com is very well written and obviously well-informed.

What? You don't want to take advice from "Dr" Heidi Cullen from The Weather Channel?  Smile



Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlineMkorpal From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 90 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 7640 times:

This one looks bad. At least we can see it coming. But those along the ocean in Texas might want to look into a vacation in the mountains or something like that. If I were there, I would already be making reservations.

25 Redngold : Nor do I trust AccuWeather... I trust the NWS and my own impressions of the radar and steering factors (although I am not an expert.)
26 Indy : Ah... AccuWeather. Probably my least favorite site when it comes to information. As far as the NWS goes they are ok if you want to interpret the data
27 Post contains links Chumley : There's a weather blog I visit that consolidates a lot of the various information and models available. I find it to be a good supplemental resource f
28 Post contains links PITops : Everyone should check out www.storm2k.org . It is a very good amateur website with a really nice forum.
29 DernierVirage : The latest forecast is that Hurricane Dean will hit Martinique at around 1 a.m. Friday morning. Both Martinique and Guadeloupe are on "red alert" for
30 LTBEWR : Jamica seems to be in a direct path for a strong class 3 or a lower class 4 hurricane, along with the Cayman Islands. Per the latest (Fri. Aug. 17th 1
31 Post contains links Indy : Dean is rapidly strengthening and is a category 3 hurricane and will likely reach category 4 strength by midnight. Look here for the latest Dvorak ima
32 Aerofan : Barbados was not affected. Anyone who wants a tropical isle to visit can consider this
33 Aerofan : Barbados was not affected. Anyone who wants a tropical isle to visit can consider this
34 Post contains links and images OB1504 : Visible Infrared Water Vapor At the rate Dean is going, he may end up stronger than Wilma at her peak.
35 Indy : The GFDL model has shifted the track dramatically to the right (east). We'll see if the other models shift as well or whether this run was just a bad
36 Indy : New advisory coming out. It isn't pretty. The pressure is rapidly dropping. More later.
37 Indy : Dean is now a category storm with 135mph winds. Central pressure has rapidly deepened to 946 mb. Further strengthening is likely. I hope those who can
38 Post contains links B777ER : Yes, lets hope..here is the model run....can you say, Katrina II. Shows it as a CAT 5 landfall. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...704_v5d.html?e
39 STXBohn : Well, here on STX, we've had wind, a very small squall line around 12:45 this afternoon and I still have power, DISH, and internet. I was expecting mo
40 N844AA : Hey Indy, I don't want to be hyperbolic here, but seriously, thank you so much for your advice a few posts ago. The mainstream weather sources I had
41 Indy : Glad to help. You would have been down there at the absolute wrong time. My wife is going on a cruise with her aunt in mid September and I had to tell
42 AirTranTUS : The NWS is great when it comes to Tucson weather. Very good information and easy to use. I can easily access weather reports and see the weather read
43 Indy : My objection with the local NWS is the number of false alarms we had last year. It was so bad the local press got on them about it. Severe thunderstor
44 TCFC424 : I use the NHC. They have tools that you have to look for, but most of us Plane guys have an inherent interest in weather. I like looking at their disc
45 Post contains links OB1504 : Better safe than sorry, I suppose. If there had been a severe thunderstorm and the NWS didn't issue a warning, I bet that the local press would be on
46 2travel2know : For extra safety, I would add LCE, RTB and SAP to that list. Honduras isn't looking for another Mitch. Word from GCM, still many passengers can't get
47 TCFC424 : So are ops in CUN going crazy now? Are airlines sending relief flights or larger aircraft?
48 ABQopsHP : Here in CRP, Dean is still 4/5 days away. However! We got an email overnight from our manager asking us to advise him who of us were planning to evacu
49 Post contains images Osiris30 : You guys in CRP need to keep your eyes on this one big time.. I know what the official NHC track says.. I also know what the trust worthy models (as
50 ABQopsHP : I think everyone all over the Gulf Coast took lessons from Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Everyone Ive spoken to, dont plan on riding this out if its a 3 or
51 Albird87 : Well here in GCM the airport is chaos!! There are more flights coming and going!! KX added around 11 more flights today, mostly to MIA, and AA and US
52 Osiris30 : Good luck to you sir (sincerely). I know you guys had a pretty rough go not all that long ago, so here's to hoping everyone gets through this one alr
53 Post contains links Tornado82 : I've been biting my tongue over this thread for a couple days now but I have to jump in... First off, where does any (reputable) source say that the h
54 Post contains links Osiris30 : They are trackable using this: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml? That is upadted every 10 minutes with data at 30s intervals when a hun
55 Osiris30 : Can't seem to find the edit button???.. so apologies.. I meant to say there are other locations with the model data output as well.. that isn't going
56 Post contains images Tornado82 : Note I said they're untrackable on flightaware. Your average plane junkie on A.net isn't going to go through deciphering that. If it's USAF, it's a W
57 Indy : I have watched the NHC blow some forecasts pretty bad. They have the same tools the other forecasters have. The only difference is that they get call
58 TCFC424 : I checked the CUN arrivals and departures...the only oddball that I saw was F9 8534 from CUN to MDW. Checking on F9, it is not a regularly scheduled f
59 Post contains images Osiris30 : Either actually.. Both report in the same format. Forgive the oversight to mention the 130's. Either way I'm amazed what those aircraft get put throu
60 Post contains links Indy : Here is something to keep an eye on. http://www.climatepatrol.com/imagelo...op1.php?filesource=38&numframes=20 Pardon the small glitch in the loop. Bu
61 Post contains links Osiris30 : " target=_blank>http://www.climatepatrol.com/imagelo...es=20 I prefer: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html You can build your own loops (
62 Indy : I'm not sure how many they have. I have something like 150 different image sets with over 2 million images available for public viewing in my archives
63 Indy : I've looked at a 40 frame loop of the Caribbean. In frames 1 - 20 the storm is moving pretty much due west. In frames 20 to 30 the movement is a bit n
64 Post contains links Osiris30 : I believe the jog you're seeing is temporary.. I expect the resumption of a 270-280 For ~48 hours-~72hours. After that I expect more of a turn to a ~
65 AASTEW : AA's Operations 8/18/2007 KINGSTON 4 B737-MIA 1 A300-MBJ-MIA GRAND CAYMAN (This 3 B737-MIA CANCUN (This is AA normal schedule) 4 B737-MIA 2 B757-DFW 2
66 Indy : What I see is absolutely no accounting for that low off of Tampa. That may be the difference between GFDL and the others. Perhaps it is picking up th
67 Post contains images MadameConcorde : Tornado82, thank you very much for your long and most informative post. It explains the situation very well. I watched the SpaceShuttle/ISS live from
68 Sebring : Air Canada operated an extra 767-200 section today to MoBay. Should be landing right now in Jamaica
69 CitationJet : My wife flew CUN to IAH today on CO 2749, leaving CUN at 11 am today. She said the airpport ops were normal. CO had two flights to CUN cancel yesterd
70 MadameConcorde : This thread is really interesting. We are getting so much information from you people and at the same time thinking of those really unfortunate who ar
71 ABQopsHP : The cxld flts to IAH yesterday were due to wx at IAH. We had 11 diversions in CRP due to heavy thunderstorms at IAH. As for no one in CUN at the resor
72 ABQopsHP : MadameConcord, I thank you for your concern, since I am one in the posted track of this storm. We will have a better idea once Dean crosses the Yucata
73 Post contains images MadameConcorde : It's getting very late here but I will be only half-sleeping considering the events, thinking of those like yourself who are right on the hurricane pa
74 Post contains links CitationJet : CO just posted the following on their website: Effective Friday August 17th only returning residents, work permit holders, and Caymanians will be all
75 Post contains links TPAnx : One site which no one's mentioned.. http://flhurricane.com Lots of links, models, and level-headed commentary. To those in the strike zone...hunker do
76 Comorin : CUN airport has really improved - well staffed security lanes that are the envy of us NYC travelers. I have a question - since Cancun is not an island
77 UAL747 : Glad I already got back from my trip to South Padre Island, on the Texas/Mexico Border. We missed the tropical depression that came through last week,
78 Osiris30 : At 150mph, the smallest pebble, rock, lose nut or bolt becomes nearly lethal... in short, while the buildings may be secure, there's no such thing as
79 Osiris30 : Sorry for possible spam, but just in from a Hurricane Hunter: 233800 1600N 07053W 6973 02412 9188 +155 +147 226003 007 030 002 03 Minimum central pres
80 LTBEWR : I heard on the news late Saturday afternoon that AA and Air Jamaica is canceling all fights Sunday (and probably Monday) to/from Jamaica. From the 5 p
81 Hiflyer : ATCSCC ADVZY 067 DCC 08/18/2007 CARIBBEAN HURRICANE TELCON_FYI MESSAGE: IMPACTED AREA: HAITI, CUBA, JAMAICA, CAYMAN ISLANDS 1. HURRICANE DEAN PUBLIC A
82 Indy : Normally the message goes out to protect life, limb and property. At this point I say screw property and protect your life. This isn't a Frances or Je
83 Osiris30 : Agreed. Now you don't need to run for the hills (depending on where you are), but keep an eye on this thing... 010500 1604N 07112W 6964 02411 9173 +1
84 Indy : The worst thing that can happen for Jamaica is for this storm to stay on a westerly track. If the eye goes directly over the island or just north of
85 Post contains images Osiris30 : Yep. I know I'm just 'reporting' what it's doing. Also interestingly GFDL has shifted well south, *but* and I want to caution this is just *my* take
86 Osiris30 : 021000 1613N 07128W 6967 02399 9162 +162 +156 104022 032 038 000 03 916.2 now. That's 2.5mb in an hour, which is pretty rapid intensifiction. Tracking
87 Indy : I'm guessing the storm gets upgraded to cat 5 at 11pm. I think it would be pretty rare to have a cat 4 storm with a pressure that low. Edit: Well ther
88 Osiris30 : It's actually not all that uncommon. If the pressure gradient is expanding (and hence the wind field) the wind speeds will actually drop temporarily.
89 Comorin : I see your point! Thanks for the posts so far, very informative. Thanks for your posts too. If I remember my Fluid Mech, force is proportional to squ
90 Indy : I've seen the pressure drop quite a bit and the wind speeds not fall. I completely understand the effects of an expanding wind field (not that this s
91 Osiris30 : Apparently we have a double eye-wall situation, which isn't showing up at all on the sat imagery (or wasn't until the 02:15utc). There's another pass
92 747fan : This one isn't looking very pretty right now - the rapid intensification is unfortunately reminding me of Wilma in 2005, which was the strongest hurri
93 Indy : I hope the GFDL model isn't right. It has Dean approaching the Cozumel to Cancun area with a 900mb low and winds of 173kts. I'll go out on a limb righ
94 TCFC424 : During the eyewall replacement cycles of these very intense storms, isn't it common to have widely different forecasts due to the "eye wobble" inheren
95 TCFC424 : Never mind...it is on NHC's site under latest sat imagery...GOES floater loop data. BTW, in the last few frames it has ticked northward a bit.
96 Post contains images Osiris30 : In short no.. the only time it comes into question is when the eye becomes obscured/fully collapses. This hasn't happened with Dean. Additionally the
97 Indy : Osiris... do you think that looking at the latest water vapor image that the storm may have ingested a little bit of dry air?
98 Post contains images SJUboeingGirl : Here in San Juan we just had a couple of gusty winds and scattered showers, mostly sunny LOL! I feel sorry for all the islands from the lesser antille
99 Post contains images Osiris30 : Negative. I see two things at play here. First of all there has been a very minor increase in sheer over the system. Almost un-noticable until one th
100 Indy : I'm amazed how well the storm has held together going through these changes tonight. The central pressure has pretty much held on without a problem. T
101 Osiris30 : Don't be LOL. It's a big storm and to some extent these deep hurricanes control their own destiny at times, creating localized weather systems around
102 Bennett123 : Fortuneately most of the planes at Jamaica can fly out. However the old DC3 could fly again.Also the A300 nose will be a goner if it is still there. D
103 Post contains links Bennett123 : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6953530.stm It sounds as if Jamaica will be hit hard. Hope that everyone remains safe,buildings can be repaired. D
104 MadameConcorde : 230km/h (145mph) winds must be really awful... This is all very scary. Please, people, go as much as you can where it's the safest and try to stay ali
105 TCFC424 : On the latest satellite imagery, it looks as if there could be a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico...(Appears to be indicated best with Water Vapor
106 Post contains links and images MadameConcorde : Hurricane Dean: Readers' updates http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/6952773.stm
107 Wingnut767 : There have not been any wild shifts in Deans patterns. It has been going W or WNW all along. All of the projections for the last 3 or 4 days have had
108 71Zulu : Agreed. I remember seeing a picture from Mississippi Category 5 Hurricane Camille in 1969 that showed a single pine needle from a pine tree blown hal
109 MasseyBrown : Looks like another disaster for Cancun, as well as Jamaica - another winter season about to be wiped out? All those planned new routes to CUN may be b
110 XA744 : Interesting to see that no A.Netters from Mexico have yet participated in this thread, especially when knowing that there are two or three members wit
111 Post contains images OB1504 : Real picture taken in the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew. As of Public Advisory #26A (1800 UTC), winds have stabilized at around 145 mph, while pressu
112 Post contains links MadameConcorde : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/6952773.stm Hi, I am on holiday in Jamaica. I live in London and have come here for much needed rest. However
113 RFields5421 : It would be better to have the eye pass north of the island or over the island for the southern coast - due to the differiental of winds created by fo
114 Osiris30 : No the models are shifting because that low is heading westward and a high-pressure system is sliding down the Floridian cost. Go google "nogaps 500m
115 TCFC424 : It looks like the only airlines adding extra lift for CUN are USA3000 (3 flights in 15 minutes) and F9 (two 99XX flight numbers.) It also doesn't look
116 RFields5421 : You should have been with us in 1969 when we went into Biloxi the day after Camile hit - or 1974 in Xenia Ohio. Mother nature can be incredibly destr
117 747fan : Thankfully Dean has weakened slightly today from a 917 mb. hurricane last night to a 930 mb, 145 mph. hurricane currently (6:06 PM ET). Obviously this
118 OB1504 : Could the pressure be going up because of its proximity to land? (Jamaica)
119 Tcfc424 : Jamaica is a small enough land mass to not have too much effect on Dean's strength. The pressure is probably flucuating more because of internal facto
120 Post contains images Osiris30 : Rapid eye-wall cycles, slightly less than optimal sheer situation and now some minor land-interaction. However that increase in pressure hasn't even
121 AAJFKSJUBKLYN : My partner worked a MIA-SDQ flight this morning and it was extremely turbulant. AA flight took extra 40 minutes in air, and everyone on board was sigh
122 AirTran737 : We (World Airways) are doing an emergency charter from CUN to ZRH tomorrow afternoon. Hopefully all goes well and we don't have a stranded bird in th
123 Osiris30 : You should have plenty of time to get her in and out, although it won't be a direct route, as the storm should be RIGHT in your way.
124 B757capt : What an amazing place to stay!!!!!
125 Post contains images 747fan : Its a shame that Cancun and Cozumel will be hit again for the third time in 3 years!! Of course all those popular, fantastic resorts/hotels there were
126 TCFC424 : Okay...realizing I am an amateur at deciphering this stuff...according to Flightaware, it looks like the extra lift has been arriving and departing at
127 LGA777 : US has a 757 due out of CUN @ 0100 lcl Sunday night then on Monday two extra sections, a 319 to CLT and a 320 to PHL, in addition to regulary schedule
128 Indy : Looking at the latest IR and Dvorak images it looks like this storm is starting to get going. I think Jamaica got lucky.
129 RobertS975 : The Cancun hotel strip was decimated by Wilma. Most of the hotels had to close for the next 6-9 months for rebuilding. This could be a repeat.
130 Indy : Latest report from the hurricane hunters indicates a max flight level wind of 145 kts and a pressure of 926mb. Look for the 2am advisory to reflect su
131 Indy : As expected the 2am report bumped up the maximum sustained winds to 150mph.
132 Wingnut767 : I do not go with the 25 various models that they like to put on the screen with all of the pretty colors. Since the beginning the NHC forcast has bee
133 747fan : I know many hotels were severely damaged, but the majority of them are concrete high-rises that would obviously hold up very well in any hurricane. T
134 TCFC424 : Well the Royal Mayan weathered Wilma surprisingly well, especially for being nearly 30 years old! They had a few panes of broken glass, had to replace
135 LTBEWR : While not ignoring the possible major loss of life and severity of damage of property in the Yucatan region especially if Dean hits possibly worse tha
136 Hiflyer : CUN and CZM were planned to close this evening....no info on Merida closing so it will probably be the airport of choice as in years back. The storm i
137 Aacun : Well, today AA is schedule to fly 3 extra sections.... a 767 and extra 757 to DFW and an AB6 to Miami to get everybody out....... Most tourists have b
138 RFields5421 : Just make sure you have a safe area totally protected from any exterior glass. And a failsafe way to get to the ground floor afterwards with no power
139 Osiris30 : I took issue with your statement 'all of the projections'. Many projections had it going nowhere near the Yucatan. Had you said all the NHC forecasts
140 Post contains links Wingnut767 : Actually a majority have been on the Yucatan all along. NOGAPS, GFS, GFDL, BAMM, UKNET and the NHC have all been on the Yucatan and then on to far so
141 Post contains links Osiris30 : Those graphs show at best 5 of many many models that are used by various met. departments around the world. http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/w
142 Redngold : For those of us who believe in the power of prayer... time to start praying for the people of Belize and southern Mexico. What astounds me the most is
143 CuriousFlyer : AF 004 CDG-JFK was cancelled yesterday because they did not have an aircraft. It seems some aircrafts were needed for FDF (Martinique)...
144 Indy : Latest report from hurricane hunters indicates max flight level winds of 162kts. Thats 145.8kts at the surface. Thats 168mph. Lets see what they repor
145 Post contains links Osiris30 : No need to wait for 11PM: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/210034.shtml Worse yet, the satelite presentation has actually improve
146 Indy : Yeah unfortunately the storm is looking very impressive. The core around the eye looks as good as it has at any point. This is the absolute wrong time
147 747fan : Dean is now a Category 5 hurricane: max sustained winds 160 mph., pressure 914 mb. At least Cancun and Cozumel will get a break this time - but will l
148 Osiris30 : Well given that it's a rather wide 'line of fire' and that my geography isn't the greatest: Chetumal is probably in the worst place in the world righ
149 Post contains links and images Osiris30 : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/210624.shtml Good luck folks in the area, best wishes.
150 Viaggiare : Confronting the 0715Z satellite imagery with a map of the Yucatán Peninsula, it appears as though the eye of this massive storm is about to make land
151 LH498 : So here is a question: I'll be flying tomorrow to MEX and according to the forecast Dean is going to be right in the normal way to MEX, so what can I
152 LTBEWR : There could very well be delays as the storm will be a couple of hundred miles east of MEX by later today, and the remains of Dean, mostly rain, will
153 Post contains images LH498 : I don't know now, but in the past MEX had problems with heavy rainfalls and that is expected. According to the forecasts Dean is going to be northeas
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