Timberwolf24 From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 575 posts, RR: 1 Posted (6 years 11 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 7918 times:
In reading several topics regarding American Airlines at my home town airport of ORD, (I'm now living in So Cal but Chicago will ALWAYS be home,) it sounded as if American was pulling out of ORD. There seems to me to be a consensus here on A net that American is pulling back at ORD in a big way. Yes, American is pulling out of several markets and reducing flights in others so I decided to compare the American/American Eagle schedule at ORD. I took Monday
August 27 and Monday December 13 to do this comparison and this is what I found. Between August 27 and December 13 American has reduced flights at ORD by a grand total of 1. Over all flight reductions with routes ended or frequency being reduced was 27. Over all flight additions with new routes being opened or frequencies being increased was 26. To me it seems like most of the reduction was due to seasonal shifts in air travel due to ORD being slot controlled.
Below is a list of non stop markets form ORD with the number of daily flights and aircraft type. As both dates are a Monday I would believe this should be a good weekday schedule. If I have missed anything let me know.
SFOQQAA From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 96 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (6 years 11 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 7879 times:
Very Interesting. I believe AA has a schedule change taking affect on September 5th that may show a few other adjustments out of ORD. AA will not pull down ORD or give up the market. They have invested to much over the years and have made ORD a focal point for much of it's international expansion. Although Chicago is a huge point of origin market, connecting traffic is important as well and they will always be tweaking their domestic flights to compliment their international schedule.
I think many people forget that AA is more willing to drop a route and cut it's losses quicker than other carriers. Take a look at NGO and KIX. Adjustments made at ORD are probably prudent as the AA bean counters know where to reassign the planes. Although I am based in NYC and have a feeling they will try to expand the NY market soon, ORD will always play a very important role in the strength of AA's network.
SFOHORIZON From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 93 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 11 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 7790 times:
I agree, I think ORD Is way too important and profitable for American to pull-back.
Here's why ORD is a logical hub for United and American - in a big city, perfect transit point to get people from point A to point B, with ORD the connecting hub between A and B, geographically it makes sense, ferrying people east-west even north south.
Now here's why AA won't be leaving ORD - It's their main international gateway. You don't pull down a hub while building up your international operations. Their next big expansion, ASIA, is out of ORD, Delhi, Shanghai and hopefully soon Beijing. They just added Buenos Aires right?
As slow as it is, ORD is expanding and modernizing, while Elk Grove sues to stop the modernization program once a month, they're on track to build and realign new runways, albeit slightly behind schedule.
Finally, just another notch to dispel another rumor, I spoke to an AA flight attendant a few weeks back and he said there is no chance of Delhi being canceled, he said the flight is always full. Now good loads don't necessarily mean high yields, but I think its safe to say that this route will be around for awhile.
Now if only AA would throw caution to the wind, get an agreement hammered out with its unions that satisfies both airlines and pilots, maybe they could expand internationally and take a page out of Delta's pagebook.
I live in SFO now, but ORD will also always be my home airport.
FreequentFlier From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 893 posts, RR: 12
Reply 3, posted (6 years 11 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 7771 times:
Thanks for this analysis, very interesting. However, it should be noted that a more apt comparison would probably be a year over year comparison rather than July vs December as many of the adds were seasonal adds that are added every year in December (EGE, RSW, PBI, FLL, JAC, HDN, etc). Other routes had adds due to a reduction in gauge of other aircraft (YYZ gains two net frequencies but loses 3 mainline frequencies). Looking through this, there does seem to be an overall reduction of service, mostly due to major market pullouts (such as PDX, ORF and COS) and reduction of flying in major markets like LGA, BOS, SAN and SEA for instance.
LAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7496 posts, RR: 24
Reply 4, posted (6 years 11 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 7685 times:
Quoting Timberwolf24 (Thread starter): In reading several topics regarding American Airlines at my home town airport of ORD, (I'm now living in So Cal but Chicago will ALWAYS be home,)
How crazy, we flip-floped!!! Im just moved to Chicago, but I was born in LA, I grew up in LA, and I moved back to LA once I graduated college in Texas. LAX will always be my home airport!!!
Quoting Timberwolf24 (Thread starter): it sounded as if American was pulling out of ORD. There seems to me to be a consensus here on A net that American is pulling back at ORD in a big way.
The nice thing about AA (and UA as well) is the each hub plays a particular role. Ill try to sum the three largest hubs up as I see them:
DFW: The largest and most important hub in the network. Its AA's "handy man". It is the largest domestic hub, their HQ, and has a decent sized Latin American (not as big as MIA), Europe (not as big as ORD or JFK), and Asia (two flights to Asia, same as ORD, just one destination instead of two). Relys mostly on connecting traffic to fill the planes.
ORD: The second largest hub, most of the traffic is focused on international flights as opposed to domestic (like DFW). ORD has the most destinations in Europe for AA, ORD is also AA's pick for flights to China. ORD makes great sense geographically as a hub. ORD-EZE is starting up, but in the same breath AA is cutting domestic service to ORD (mostly in favor of DFW and MIA). This to me says that AA is going to focus on International traffic there and let the domestic flights be timed for international connections. While AA is starting ORD-EZE, I dont see them makeing too much of a run at ORD-Latin America, DFW, JFK, and especially MIA will do that for them. ORD has a good mix of O&D and connecting traffic. That being said I belive UA gets more connecting traffic through ORD than does AA.
MIA: AA's Latin America connector. That pretty much sums it up. I dont think MIA will ever see the Europe service that ORD or JFK sees, more along the level of DFW for AA. But with its perfect geographic location in relation to Latin America, MIA will always be #1 to get there.
I will also say that I do think ORD is much more important for UA than it is for AA. I believe that ORD is the most important hub for UA by a long shot and that it is UA's "handy man" the same way that DFW is for AA. I believe that DFW is more important for AA than ORD, but that ORD is a very large piece of the puzzle that will always be there for AA.
TrijetsRMissed From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 2326 posts, RR: 7
Reply 5, posted (6 years 11 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 7649 times:
Great post Timberwolf, I live in Chicago so I found it very interesting. In most cases, the reduction appears typical with seasonal downgrades in frequency and/or more American Eagle equipment, which is nothing new. ORD is arguably AA's second largest hub, and largest gateway to Europe and Asia. With all ridiculous rumors I've read on a.net about AA pulling back significantly at ORD, I'm glad you've posted this thread to put it to rest.
SANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5353 posts, RR: 15
Reply 6, posted (6 years 11 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 7630 times:
Quoting Timberwolf24 (Thread starter): Below is a list of non stop markets form ORD with the number of daily flights and aircraft type.
Great effort and nice job 'wolf.
Quoting FreequentFlier (Reply 3): it should be noted that a more apt comparison would probably be a year over year comparison rather than July vs December as many of the adds were seasonal adds that are added every year in December (EGE, RSW, PBI, FLL, JAC, HDN, etc). Other routes had adds due to a reduction in gauge of other aircraft (YYZ gains two net frequencies but loses 3 mainline frequencies). Looking through this, there does seem to be an overall reduction of service, mostly due to major market pullouts (such as PDX, ORF and COS) and reduction of flying in major markets like LGA, BOS, SAN and SEA for instance.
I would, however, tend to agree with FF.
In the case of SAN we had 5x n/s to ORD last winter and this summer, but we're dropping to 4x starting 9/04; i.e., SAN is NOT a (recurring) seasonal reduction, but appears permanent (for now anyway)...
IPFreely From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 237 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (6 years 11 months 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 7536 times:
I have not heard or read anything about AA reducing operations or ending their hub operations at ORD.
From your chart (which is interesting), that doesn't appear to be the case.
The one thing that I noticed is that AA is dropping ORD-PDX service completely.
I suppose that AA couldn't get this route to perform with just 2 flights/day against UA's 6, but I'm still surprised. I would think there would be enough business demand that AA would keep this route, especially since their only connecting flights would add a lot of distance to this trip. Is AA reducing overall service at PDX?
B4REAL From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2629 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (6 years 11 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 7463 times:
I think the entire schedule adjustment as a whole could be summed up as Winter scheduling changes. AA has a great base at ORD, and it is not yet getting diluted. In fact, they're adding service (recently announced ORD-EZE) when possible.
AAJFKSJUBKLYN From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 901 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (6 years 11 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 7396 times:
Didn't AA just have a big marketing campaign in ORD? Same as the one in NY? AA is ORD's hometown airline etc..
You also must remember that the dates chosen reflect a summer peak, more flights etc.., but, you also see more rotation in this period for mx purposes. I beleive immediately following Dec 13th, schedules beef up slightly for holidays. Correct me if I am wrong, the comparison, and the dates used are off kilter as many a planes are doing other things..like being duct taped and bondo'ed. . Just a thought. Maybe comparing a schedule such as Aug vs. May would be a fair or level way of figuring out the statistics.
DesertAir From Mexico, joined Jan 2006, 1457 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (6 years 11 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 7366 times:
Thanks for the interesting topic. I am happy that AA has continued with the TUS-ORD market with three flights a day. UA pulled their flights a couple of years ago. WN has service to Midway with two flights a day.
CygnusChicago From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 758 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (6 years 11 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 7198 times:
Thanks for an interesting and well researched topic Timberwolf. A lot of posts on this site pass off as "fact" when it is often just perception. Like you, ORD is my home, and I am glad AA is maintaining presence. That said, I wouldn't mind if the local Dictator encouraged some action, like having UA and AA replacing some of their RJs with larger planes to reduce congestion
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
ElmoTheHobo From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1536 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (6 years 11 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 7133 times:
Quoting Quickmover (Reply 12): How committed are they to STL? Do you guys think STL is profitable being mostly an RJ hub?
Yes, after the phasedown St. Louis and Miami were the only two profitable hubs in the system. That says something about how well they did with their "tweaking" of the operation. Without a doubt, St. Louis is still profitable.
N328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6483 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (6 years 11 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 6851 times:
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 14): Im not too sure, AA isnt Chicago's hometown airline, UA is. AA is the hometown airline of Dallas-Fort Worth.
I dunno, while most people (that would even give a crap) in Chicagoland know that UA is based here, it's well known that if you want to go someplace, AA, UA, and WN are all sure bets. With the other carriers, you're more likely to have some weird convoluted flight path.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
ORDagent From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 823 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (6 years 11 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 6703 times:
AA did indeed have a big advertising push for the O&D market here at ORD. According to my sales rep FRA is losing money and DEL is breaking even but improving. The reason FRA is kept is that in order to get local corporate contracts they need to have FRA as it is such an important business center for Europe. She also advised me that they are absolutely wanting to get ORD to be their Asian hub. They just need to get the rights. The only other limiting factor is the lack of appropriate equipment.
Airbusaddict From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 415 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (6 years 11 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 6635 times:
Will Eagle ever come back to Sioux Falls with E145 or E140 service from STL and ORD? They were dropped in 2004, 1. Because ORD traffic problems, and two cuz the STL phasedown. ORD on AA was getting 85-95% load factors from FSD!!
MrSTL From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 468 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (6 years 11 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 6533 times:
I think what you are starting to see in Chicago because of limted slots, equipment and UA down the terminal is a better placement of equipment and routes between hubs. If ORD-ORF is losing money on their 2x daily frequency and STL-ORF is making money it makes sense for them to route the traffic through the other smaller hub 250 miles away with the money making route. There are too many things working against AA at ORD to continue with a money losing route . The same has been done with IAD-ORD, this traffic is now routed through STL. Trust me this is working both ways as a third of my flights at STL are still routed with connections at ORD.
LAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7496 posts, RR: 24
Reply 20, posted (6 years 11 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 6339 times:
Quoting ORDagent (Reply 17): AA did indeed have a big advertising push for the O&D market here at ORD. According to my sales rep FRA is losing money and DEL is breaking even but improving. The reason FRA is kept is that in order to get local corporate contracts they need to have FRA as it is such an important business center for Europe. She also advised me that they are absolutely wanting to get ORD to be their Asian hub. They just need to get the rights. The only other limiting factor is the lack of appropriate equipment.
I remeber at one time AA considered upgrading ORD-FRA, but it was decided to upgrade the second DFW-LGW instead. I AA is losing money on ORD-FRA, im sure that it has to do with the stiff competition from UA and LH. From what I hear DFW-FRA is much more profitable than is ORD-FRA for AA. DFW-FRA is on a 777. I think (but im not sure) that DFW-FRA is used heavily by the military.
As for ORD-Asia, I have no doubt that it would be AA's first choice. I doubt AA would venture for more LAX-Asia. As for DFW-Asia, I think we will see more routes, but not before AA is finished adding more ORD-Asia. Ive also heard that DFW-NRT is a better preformer than is ORD-NRT for AA, but again that must have to do with the competition on ORD-NRT from UA, JL, and NH, and the lack thereof from DFW-NRT.
Ghillier From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 36 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (6 years 11 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 5947 times:
Regarding the AA pullout on the ORD-PDX route - I was really surprised and saddened to hear about that. I have connected TUL-PDX thru ORD many times and ORD-PDX has always been full. DFW-PDX is always oversold - I wish AA would upgrade to a 757 or at least a 738 on that route.
Timberwolf24 From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 575 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (6 years 11 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 5065 times:
Quoting Deltaflyertoo (Reply 16): Check your SFO, you have 6 on one and 7 on another but a change of zero.
Yes my mistake, SFO remains at 6 flights 5 M80 and 1 763.
My main reason for creating this list was to see for my self if in fact AA was reducing flights at ORD and was more of a snap shot of 2 dates. What this reinforced to me is that as long as ORD is slot controlled you will not see any true growth from either AA or UA. Any new markets either carrier enters will be at the expense of other markets. True growth at ORD is still several years away and will happen once the runways are reconfigured and slots are increased or removed.
Now that I have done this I'm thinking of making a similar comparison with UA at ORD.
I'm glad so many found the list interesting
[Edited 2007-08-28 00:44:42]
Living in LA, ORD/MDW will always be home!
: Oh for sure, its VERY INTERESTING. Thank you for doing this, I totally enjoyed that list....yeah a UAL one would be cool.....
: What is AA going to do with those extra MD80 that are dropped from some of routes?? Will they go to DFW or STL or what??
: If I had to ventrure a guess, they will go to DFW. ORD seems to gaining international traffic but loseing domestic traffic. DFW is still gaining dome
: my guess is they are replacing the 757s that are leaving some of the routes.. i.e. LAS...
: As I recall from the discussions here about JetBlue, ORD is a slot-controlled airport. Logic would dictate that any route cut by AA be replaced by ano
: ORD-SEA is always reduced in the fall after the Alaska cruising season ends, and I noticed that JFK is gaining 2 daily MD-80s, while LGA is losing 2
: If ORD - FRA is not making money, wouldn't conservative AA just cut it, isn't that AA's gameplan cut all routes that don't make profit, and even cut
: Indeed, this is something that stuck out to me as well. Especially the legs that are near two hours in length. It goes to show a lot has changed sinc
: ORD flight caps go away next year (see below). The first new runway is scheduled to open on November 8th and currently is on scheduled. American, Uni
: ORD-FRA probably isnt one of the more profitable ORD-Europe routes, but it might be more beneficial for AA to keep it rather than let it go even if i
: There were a few comments flying around A.net (literally) that AA was pulling down ORD, when in fact that rumor is completely false. ORD is a zero-sum
: While technically youre correct. It was the ORD-PDX pullout that started al lteh speculation that AA was going tp pull back ORD in a big way. Some we
: I agree!!! If you decide to do one on UA, ill be the first to look at it!!! Yes, I agree there was some over reaction on A.net about ORD-PDX being pu
: Just looking at the schedule, I see no increase of service by MQ on any route here in upstate NY. None to SYR, ROC, BUF, or ALB. I expected here in th
: I have started complying the list for United at ORD and should have it ready to post this weekend. Again this will only be a snap shot of 2 selected d
: Well when you end up in hell, you always wish you were in heaven Yes, but AA isn't based in Chicago, they are based in Dallas, as was previously stat
: A friend of mine who flies for AA says that if management knew then what it knows now, it would have kept the 717s and taken at least some of the rem
: It's easy to see, there's definitely a big void between the CR7 and MD-80. Any thoughts on long after the 717's and F100's were gone that management
: AA isn't going to keep heavy schedules that WN is flying. They keep enough for connections to long haul flights out of ORD that they can actually mak
: Yes. When 9L-27R opens in November of 2008 its primary purpose will be to reduce delays. But with the cap removal airlines will be allowed to schedul
: Would call it their primary longhaul gateway, yes... ...but MIA is a far busier international operation for AA in terms of number of flights and dest