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Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?  
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (6 years 12 months ago) and read 13537 times:

Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

Lufthansa operates 19 MD11F´s that could be sold and replaced by 747-8Fs, more suitable for the long Asian routes were cargo is booming, competition is building up fast (Cargolux, the Chinese, Russians) and Lufthansa Cargo is ambitious.

IMO it could become a win-win option for both LH and Boeing if market responds to the 747-8i doesn´t improve.

Boeing might become more then willing to free up skilled engineering for more profitable projects such as 777 upgrade, 787-10, Y1, Y3, IDS projects, KC767, LRJ  Wink

Emirates and ILFC too converted their A380F´s into passenger versions, after it became clear Airbus would delay the -F to free up engineering resources for the A380 passenger.

http://www.airbus.com/store/photolibrary/EVENTS/SIGNATURE/att00001549/media_object_image_lowres_709X473_customersILFC7D7A8.jpg

It has been done before, also by Boeing and it´s customers. At some point it might even cause some hidden hurrays in Seattle..



254 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2510 posts, RR: 7
Reply 1, posted (6 years 12 months ago) and read 13518 times:

I suppose they could, but without actually seeing the contract obviously can't say for sure. I imagine LH would only do so if Boeing scrapped the -i altogether. The ball is in Boeing's court IMO. For the record, I don't see it happening. I believe they will build the -i and deliver to LH as planned (among others).

User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4316 posts, RR: 28
Reply 2, posted (6 years 12 months ago) and read 13502 times:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

Why do I get the impression you're just trying to stir the pot, Keesje, by implying that LH might want to convert their 8i's if there is no market for them?

But to answer your question, I think they could as long as unique 8i parts for their ships haven't been fabricated yet by Boeing suppliers. In the end, it might be easier to just convert them to freighters after delivery.

Kind of like what SQ might want to consider doing with their A380's if they can't fill them profitably  Wink



I'm not a racist...I hate Biden, too.
User currently offlineJTR From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 113 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 13480 times:

I think a BA 748i order (>10 orders) will spur demand for the model from other undecided carriers. I do, however, see a greater market for the F version than the i.

User currently offlineTKV From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 13374 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 2):
Why do I get the impression you're just trying to stir the pot, Keesje, by implying that LH might want to convert their 8i's if there is no market for them?

 checkmark 

Keesje: Your thread would be by far more logical if you had waited for a negative decision of BA !! Or do you think that they are very concerned what would happen to poor LH which made the mistake to buy the -i, if they do not order the -i themselves ?? And that if BA read your idea on a-net, they would stop worrying and order A380 free of remorse ?? Smile  Wink

Keesje: this is a rare moment when I try to be funny, so be not offended

cordially
TKV


User currently offlineFlyABR From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 646 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 13317 times:

actually, i suspect LH will order additional 748s...and they'll be freighters to go along with their intercontinentals. keesje, you really need to let go of this obsession you have with the 748i...  Smile

User currently offlineJoFMO From Germany, joined Jul 2004, 2211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 13252 times:

I would expect such a clause in the contract. But even if not, I could see a situation coming where both parties could be quite happy to change the -i into freighters.

I don't think LH would be too happy to fly a 'bastard child' around that everybody else refuses.


User currently offlineKFLLCFII From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3301 posts, RR: 30
Reply 7, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 13240 times:

So what's the breakeven point for the -i?


"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
User currently offlineBok269 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 2105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 13145 times:

We are still 3 years out of EIS for the i. Once we get closer, you'll see orders pick up. The original 744s are approaching 20 years old and many airlines will need to replace them. Many may find the A380 too big, and even if they don't, may find room for them as well. I think BA will order a combo. I can see CX, CI, and the like going for the 748i. LH got rid ofthe 742Fs (I think there may be one left). If they wanted the larger planes, they probably would have had a direct replacement in line sooner. And who knows, maybe youll see the 77Fs replace the M11s.


"Reality is wrong, dreams are for real." -Tupac
User currently offlineFlyABR From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 646 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 13078 times:

Quoting KFLLCFII (Reply 7):
So what's the breakeven point for the -i?

wouldn't the more pertinent ? be what is the break even point for the entire 748 program??

through july boeing had 90 orders total for both versions of the 748...and the aircraft still has a ways to go before EIS. the A380 is getting close to EIS and only has 165 firmed up. the 748 is doing just fine thank you!


User currently offlineAirplaneFan From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 236 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 13055 times:

Quoting KFLLCFII (Reply 7):
So what's the breakeven point for the -i?

Boeing 747-8_ _ Intercontinental!!

Ok some of you members are going to ask, "What do the two under scores after number 8 mean?", well thats where the Boeing Customer Code belongs. For example BA's Boeing, not Airbus, customer code is 36, so in this case if BA decides to order the Boeing 747-8, which I hope they do, their Boeing 747-8's will be Boeing 747-836.



I AM ABLE THINK, THEREFORE I EXIST.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30856 posts, RR: 86
Reply 11, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 13042 times:
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Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

They don't need a contract to do it. They can reject the plane all the way up to the time it's rolled over to the Delivery Center for the final ceremony if they're willing to lose all the monies they have deposited towards it so far.

Quoting JoFMO (Reply 6):
I don't think LH would be too happy to fly a 'bastard child' around that everybody else refuses.

That does not seem to have caused QF any grief with their six "bastard" 747-400ERs... If it's the right plane for the job, it's the right plane for the job.

I don't see LH taking the 747-8I on a whim. Especially 20 of them. They see a role for that type in their fleet and if they're worried about support, sign a "GoldCare-type" package with Boeing and force them to support it for the duration.


User currently offlineBaron95 From United States of America, joined May 2006, 1335 posts, RR: 8
Reply 12, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 13030 times:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

Of course they could and most likely did. Most (if not all) tier 1 Boeing customers can substitute models in the same family (e.g. Delta converting 777-200ERs into 777-200LRs), alter delivery schedules, etc. There are negotiated fees and prices for these things. Even if that were not in the contract, if circumstances dictated an order change in the future, Boeing would certainly work with LH to arrive at a fair resolution for the conversion.

So what?

You seem to imply that a) Boeing is not that serious about the 748-I and b) LH is not quite sure that they want it. We have two of the largest and most successful companies in their field entering into a multi-billion dollar contract without really being sure of it.

Yeah, right!!!!



Killer Fleet: E190, 737-900ER, 777-300ER
User currently offlineKFLLCFII From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3301 posts, RR: 30
Reply 13, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 13002 times:

Quoting AirplaneFan (Reply 10):


Quoting KFLLCFII:

So what's the breakeven point for the -i?

Boeing 747-8_ _ Intercontinental!!

Ok some of you members are going to ask, "What do the two under scores after number 8 mean?", well thats where the Boeing Customer Code belongs. For example BA's Boeing, not Airbus, customer code is 36, so in this case if BA decides to order the Boeing 747-8, which I hope they do, their Boeing 747-8's will be Boeing 747-836.

Thanks, I know how Boeing customer codes work.  Wink

What I was asking was, what is the breakeven point for the -Intercontinental? How many need to be sold to make up for the R&D costs of the airframe update?

Would the 25 currently on the books suffice, or would they theoretically have to double that? Or triple it?...



"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
User currently offlineBok269 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 2105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 12999 times:

Quoting AirplaneFan (Reply 10):
Ok some of you members are going to ask, "What do the two under scores after number 8 mean?", well thats where the Boeing Customer Code belongs. For example BA's Boeing, not Airbus, customer code is 36, so in this case if BA decides to order the Boeing 747-8, which I hope they do, their Boeing 747-8's will be Boeing 747-836.

Remember that the generic codes for Boeings are only going to be 1 digit. 787-9, 747-8, etc.



"Reality is wrong, dreams are for real." -Tupac
User currently offlineGrantcv From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 430 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 12955 times:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

What's the point of this thread other than to try and create the impression that the 748-i will never be a success?


User currently offlineNWA742 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 12885 times:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Emirates and ILFC too converted their A380F´s into passenger versions, after it became clear Airbus would delay the -F to free up engineering resources for the A380 passenger.

Oh wait, you must mean after it became clear to them and their customers that the A380F was a complete disaster of a program, a freighter that would have failed horribly against the competition in terms of cost and efficiency, and they decided to kill it?

You're always so happy to cruise along with the Airbus PR team, aren't you?






-NWA742

[Edited 2007-08-28 06:30:13]

User currently onlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9269 posts, RR: 29
Reply 17, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 12765 times:

Technically, Lufthansa and Lufthansa Cargo are separate companies. That would not be a hurdle concerning Boeing.

The problem is that Lufthansa Cargo at the moment does not have the ressources to finance 20 747-8F's and the LH policy is, that each company oin the Aviation Concern must be self sutainable. The resonsibilty for operating 747 freighters may go to Jade Cargo and possibly others in the Concern and LH Cargo may buy the 777F eventually to replace the MD11s. But that is another story and has been discussed before.

Fact is, that LH needs the 747-8i for replacement of the older 744s, what reason should they have to change or cancel the order? The -8i is a long term project for Boeing as well and will see more orders.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlineIwok From Sweden, joined Jan 2005, 1108 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 12644 times:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

 rotfl  Keesje my man, you are one of the funniest guys on these boards. The 748 has long ago sold enough to make break even, and so Boeing can price them the way they want to.

Since the 747 has outsold the 380 since they've both been for sale, I think Boeing is not sweating it too much.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Emirates and ILFC too converted their A380F´s into passenger versions, after it became clear Airbus would delay the -F to free up engineering resources for the A380 passenger.

 rotfl   rotfl  Classic! I suggest you watch the movie "Thank you for smoking"; the lead character reminds me of you.

Keep it up. Maybe in 15 years, your wish that the 747 be killed will come true  Wink

iwok


User currently offlineJRDC930 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 12628 times:

While, id hate to see the 748I end up as a garbage scow (i.e. cargo), we must face facts; no one has indicated SERIOUS interest in the 748I besides LH, and Boeing, not comments from CEO's that are concretely positive, and it has even gotten the stigma of being obsolete.Add to it potential customers looking more seriously at the 380 as an alternative such as BA and CX, and the out look ain't good. I'm just going on a hunch, and i hope I'm wrong, (love the 748), but id say the way things look now, LH will likely convert.  Sad

Just an observational opinion, and my 2 cents.


User currently offlinePADSpot From Germany, joined Jan 2005, 1676 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 12626 times:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

It has already been mentioned that LH intends to convert some of their B744 to freighters once the B748 arrive. So I can't see them them ordering or converting B748F. They might order additional B748 in some time in the future, but as long as sufficient production slots are available there is no need to hurry ...


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 21, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 12588 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 2):
Why do I get the impression you're just trying to stir the pot, Keesje, by implying that LH might want to convert their 8i's if there is no market for them?

 checkmark 
For some price unknown to us, LH could convert their WhaleJet orders into A350 orders. Given the evidence available today, both scenarios seem about equally unlikely.


User currently offlineCobra27 From Slovenia, joined May 2001, 1011 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 12575 times:

Quoting JTR (Reply 3):
I think a BA 748i order (>10 orders) will spur demand for the model from other undecided carriers. I do, however, see a greater market for the F version than the i.

So other carriers will order 748 just because BA did? This is not kindergarden you know


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 12375 times:

Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 21):
While, id hate to see the 748I end up as a garbage scow (i.e. cargo), we must face facts; no one has indicated SERIOUS interest in the 748I besides LH, and Boeing, not comments from CEO's that are concretely positive, and it has even gotten the stigma of being obsolete.Add to it potential customers looking more seriously at the 380 as an alternative such as BA and CX, and the out look ain't good. I'm just going on a hunch, and i hope I'm wrong, (love the 748), but id say the way things look now, LH will likely convert

I to would love the 747 fly on for years. I have done large projects on it & flown it dozens of times on the couzy upperdeck. Knowing Boeing first hand I am almost sure they have a smart back-up plan / time line if the 747-8i doesn´t become a seller. It would make the 747-8 line so much more efficient & reduce the overall program cost if they could focus on just the freighter. The Randy´s PR machine isn´t reflecting the board room agenda.

I think many of the childsh posts above ignore the rationality of Boeing on matters like these. If they can spend there money better, they´ll do it just like Airbus did on the A380F.


User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 12336 times:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

LH wont want to take the 747-8i if they are the only operator of the type.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 2):
Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

Why do I get the impression you're just trying to stir the pot, Keesje, by implying that LH might want to convert their 8i's if there is no market for them?

Its a simple economic decision. Its unlikely that they will want an aircraft that no other airline has. We will have to see what BA order. On a positive note, the 747-8F would make a great replacement for their MD11F's.


25 CHRISBA777ER : You guys seriously need to chill out - Keesje asked a pertinent and reasonable question and nobody has given him a decent answer - you all seem to pre
26 Post contains images Stitch : To be fair, that charge has been leveled against the A380 time and again on here for years. Why? LH has operated 747s for decades. It's not like the
27 Danny : It all depends if Boeing can find more customers for 748i soon. If not, the passenger version may never be built and LH can even get compensation for
28 Stitch : 24 frames should be enough incentive for Boeing to build it, even if the program would be in the red at that time. Once LH has it in service, it will
29 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : Apologies - your reasoned and well-thought out response was drowned in the cacophony of AvB guff from your countrymen. My comments above were directe
30 Danny : I seriously doubt it. LH already says it has inferior CASM to the A380 admitting they ordered it because of rock bottom price and freighter option as
31 DeltaDC9 : Source please.
32 DistantHorizon : I really can not understand why can´t be discussed the question posed by Keeje, even if it means arguing about a possible failure of the 747-8 passen
33 Post contains images WCS : You guys have to realize that some subjects are more sensitive than others here. As a matter of fact, it’s very unpopular to exchange around Boeing
34 Post contains images Stitch : I seriously doubt it. Why? If the 747-8I was the only model on offer, I would agree. But it isn't. And the 747-8F is the class of her...class...of fr
35 PM : It almost beggars belief that Boeing won't sign up further customers for the 747-8i. EK have recently been mentioned and the usual suspects are still
36 EBJ1248650 : True enough. And I don't see Lufthansa doing away with its MD-11Fs any time soon as well. They've done sterling service for Lufthansa and other freig
37 Post contains links Columba : I think with LH´s record of placing additional orders for every type they have ordered it is a safe bet to say that some of the 20 purchase rights w
38 Danny : For LH it is a win-win situation. Either they'll get extremely cheap 748i or they'll take even cheaper 748F to replace their MD-11s. No worries for L
39 Bok269 : No, but many carriers prefer not to be the first. This is so that if there are any kinks, it gets worked out with earlier carriers in the production
40 Post contains images WCS : I do understand your frustration, and I share it. Let's face it, there is fanboys on both side, and it's not my responsibility to gauge who is better
41 Jfk777 : Boeing has to do a better job of selling 748"s. BA, JAL and Cathay need to get their future 744 replacements programs in place.
42 FlyABR : but keesje has a certain preoccupation with the 748i recently if you haven't noticed...so it's fun to give him crap about stirring the pot!
43 TKV : As for myself, I have not said that the question is not reasonable..... only that the timing, just when BA is about to announce its decision, is so (
44 JRDC930 : Based on their own recent PR, and industry news, it seems they do, and they seem to be leaning toward the 380 instead of the 748I, its like something
45 Zvezda : There are two problems with your analogy: 1) In the WhaleJet case, the development of the freighter would have required a substantial increase in MTO
46 Bok269 : Also remember there is another program that Boeing has been working on. One they obviously understand to be more important than the 747. A little pro
47 Post contains images Stitch : No argument there, sir. Also very true (unfortunately). Three for three. My only...beef...with Keesje is that he (in my view) stirs the pot when he d
48 Post contains images Jacobin777 : There was a recent interview with Mayrhuber stating that Leahy & Co. was offering additional A380's to LH at "abuse the plane prices" yet LH felt it
49 EI321 : Dodgy counter speculation. What happened after orders for the 767-400ER stalled before it flew? CO and DL reduced their orders books, and ILFC cancel
50 Stitch : On this, I cannot really dispute. The A388F was "DOA" even against the 747-400F/ERF even with it's greater payload and range because it's just not as
51 EI321 : CO and DL had at the time (and still do) an exclusivity agreement with Boeing, which means that although the competition had a viable alternative, th
52 DeltaDC9 : I will ask again, please give a source for the claim that these 747i's were sold and an abnormally large discount for a launch customer. A much more
53 Tdscanuck : Those agreements bit the dust with the Boeing/MD merger. CO and DL are free to order whatever they want to. Tom.
54 Stitch : And yet CO and DL entered into those agreements after the A320, A330 and A340 families were in service, so they both evidently felt that the Boeing p
55 Zvezda : None of that changes the fact that, since the WhaleJet was launched in 2000, the JumboJet has outsold it. Perhaps they are both sales turkeys. That's
56 Post contains images Miamix707 : If Airbus changes it again maybe they can just convert the A350 into a freighter to replace the A332Fs...
57 DeltaDC9 : Dont forget they are using 787 R&D also, it has all been rolled into the 748 total. Boeing claims the number of engineers for the 748 are "in the hun
58 EI321 : Which only backs up my point - the 747-8 is a waste as Boeing would have had the large (777) & very large (747) Freighter market to themselves anyway
59 Silentbob : The A380 is a new design and offers more new technology than the 748i so the airlines get more bang for their buck with the A380. The A380 is so larg
60 Stitch : The A320 family's biggest advantage over the 737 Classic's was the range and the "hot and high" performance. Perhaps DL and CO needed neither? Range
61 EI321 : I dont think they did, because they had operated the airbus A300 & A310 in the past. I think so, and remember that they both ordered the 767-400 with
62 Zvezda : I can't name any other Airbus widebody that needed about twice the normal time to reach EIS, so sales before EIS is not a fair comparison.
63 Bok269 : Not necasarily. The A380F isn't dead yet; Airbus will reexamine it once they get production of the pax model going. By that point, the 744 will have
64 CHRISBA777ER : Number of pax A388s sold since 2000 - 174. Number of pax 748Is sold since 2000 - 25. A388F was postponed indefinitely for obvious reasons as it just
65 DeltaDC9 : Since the 748 was launched, it has indeed outsold the 380.
66 Zvezda : I didn't. Of course. That was the JumboJet available during most of the time since the WhaleJet was launched. If you want to compare only the 747-8 a
67 Stitch : This is why I dislike statistics. Depending on what variables you input, you can usually tailor the output to support whatever conclusion you wish to
68 Silentbob : There are three types of lies; Lies, damn lies and statistics. - Benjamin Disraeli
69 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : LOL Whatever - lets all agree on what we all clearly, deep in our souls already know. The A380 will sell more but not look as nice, whereas the 747-8
70 Zvezda : I disagree on all counts. I think the WhaleJet is much prettier than the JumboJet but that the latter will sell more.
71 Zvezda : That's rather like writing "the number of A350s sold since 1955 is ...."
72 Post contains images SEPilot : He's just trying to make sure he wins the bet he made with me. Why the heck not? It's not as if it was something exotic, like the Concorde. As long a
73 JayinKitsap : It was clear that new build 744 pax sales had totally dried up. It was probably also the case that new build 744F were drying up, by announcing the 74
74 CHRISBA777ER : You suggested 2000 as the figure - I merely applied it. Hmmmm. Having not seen either in person I cant really comment. I think it depends on the live
75 Post contains images Zvezda : I think we'll get to see both in LH colours. I fly through FRA a lot, so I'll probably get to see them at adjacent gates.
76 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : Agreed - but LH's livery is a bit on the austere side isnt it? Could always wait until NH buy a load and slap a load of Pikachus and Looney Tunes car
77 DeltaDC9 : I know, lies and damn lies, but you cannot compare 748 to 380 sales until the the point in time the 748 was offered for sale, right? From the other p
78 SEPilot : You have of course heard of the statistician who drowned in the stream with an average depth of six inches? Personally, I think the Whalejet is about
79 Post contains images Stitch : Actually, she looked pretty climbing into the sky the other day on a test flight from PAE, but I agree that the CX 77W parked next to her beforehand
80 FlyABR : where did you come up with that number? according to the airbus web site 165 A380s have been sold through july. did airbus pick up another 9 in augus
81 WingedMigrator : Nine remain to be firmed up. The latest eight for EK (ordered at Le Bourget, bringing their total to 55) and one for a very rich private individual.
82 Shenzhen : I doubt the contract allows LH to convert their order to the -F Model, otherwise what would be the point of having a launch customer to launch a new p
83 EI321 : One of the reasons why I have all but given up on these simplistic sales number comparisons, including ones in which airbus comes out on top, is beca
84 PM : Essentially, I agree with you but an important point is that all of the A380 sales have been for pax models whereas almost all 748 sales have been fo
85 Post contains images FlyABR : then "technically" only 165 have been sold up to this point ...
86 ER757 : I'm pretty sure LH has said they will fly the 380 on FRA/ORD. In fact, that was one of the reasons for the 380's flight to ORD several months ago. To
87 EI321 : To be honest, not a chance. My guess is somewhere between zero and 100. Probably 50. And for the 747-8F, Im saying somewhere between 100 and 200. So
88 Zvezda : If LH can't make the WhaleJet work for them FRA-ORD and FRA-LAX, then where can they make it work? FRA-JFK, FRA-IAD, and FRA-PVG are the only other r
89 Zvezda : This is interesting. Your expectation is 200 total 747-8 sales and 500 to 600 total WhaleJet sales. The 747-8 is already 45% of the way there after l
90 BoomBoom : The you proceed to make a simplistic sales number comparison. Unbalanced? Indeed.[Edited 2007-08-29 05:04:17]
91 Tdscanuck : Why? 24 frames, even at a very large launch customer discount, is almost $4 billion. Almost all of the development cost for the -8 is carried by the
92 Scbriml : AA, CO & DL do still have their exclusivity agreement with Boeing. However, to secure EU agreement to their takeover of MD, Boeing agreed not to enfo
93 EI321 : If you think the 747-8 will out sell the aircraft you put so much effort into demeaning with the phrase 'whalejet', I just cant take the rest of your
94 Tdscanuck : Saying they can't be split and saying they're all relevant is the same statement. You claimed that the deals were signed *only* because of cheaper pl
95 EI321 : And I stand by that, because from a technical standpoint, it was about the A320 V's 737, and the A330 V's 767. Both had already opted for the 777 bef
96 Tdscanuck : Then we are in 100% agreement! Tom.
97 Stitch : But that is what she's supposed to do. And with the exception of EK, the A388 has also been purchased to replace existing 747 fleets because that is
98 Post contains images Keesje : Agreed Stitch (apart from Ethihad, Qatar and Kingfisher ) had your coffee already?
99 Jfk777 : Boeing is also competing against its self with the very efficient 773ER. Many especially curent 744 Asia-Pacific operators are replacing the Jumbos wi
100 EI321 : Sort of what I've been trying to say. Even though there has been 90 orders, the 747-8 as a whole has not caused the over all Boeing orderbook to incr
101 TKV : [ It is interesting to see that all the Airlines named are relative newcomers (at least as significant players), located in the Middle East or nearby,
102 Post contains images BoomBoom : I could say the same thing about your post:
103 Post contains images Stitch : Alright, alright. I should have looked at the A380 order book. Still, EY, QR and IT are all taking just a handful of each. If the A380 didn't exist,
104 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...Interesting... ..I didn't know LH stated they will fly the A380 to ORD.....IIRC, they did state the B748 would be for routes such as SFO..........
105 Post contains images Zvezda : The same is true of Airbus. Had the WhaleJet not been available, many airlines would have ordered A340-600s instead. Other airlines would have ordere
106 TKV : Unfortunately, this is the dark side of capitalism in action, giving munition to the capitalism bashers. It is obviously not a good thing that a high
107 Stitch : Was it bad when WN rose to ascendancy in the United States and broke the monopolistic and protectionist pricing policies the majors had, allowing mor
108 TKV : I think that you have missed my points. I stated only that it is not a good thing that a substantial % of the world's wealth end in the hands of a fe
109 Zvezda : The Emir is doing the immigrant workers a favor, who are all there voluntarily because he provides them with a better life than they otherwise could
110 ER757 : Exactly - the powers that be in the UAE (nice rhyme, eh?) realized that they need to diversify their economy. EK is just one part of that diversifica
111 EI321 : Wrong. There is no A340-600F, and there is an almost 200 seat gap between the A340-600 and A380, plus Im sure you have noticed that all but two have
112 Zvezda : There is also no A380F. Barely relevant. Either can be used to transport passengers over similar routes. The A340 is more flexible and operates at hi
113 TKV : I agree. There are bright and dark sides, IMO clearly more bright, But as I mentioned, the concentration of not by hard work achieved money (the latt
114 JRDC930 : Neither do, i, and while im not an expert, just based on some observations, i'd say alot of people here on Anet,are being to optimistic about the 748
115 Post contains images JRDC930 : As does the 777 for some of the 747 operators, making the 748I ace serious competition from both its own manufacturer nd a competitor, add to it the
116 Post contains images Flysherwood : There is no A380F and probably never will be one. The Whalejet will get no more than 300 orders. The 7478I and F will sell 300 - 500 together. If you
117 Zvezda : So far, 28% of 747-8 orders are for the passenger model. That is not insignificant. It looks like a good RoI to me.
118 Post contains images SEPilot : Do you want fries with that?
119 DeltaDC9 : No it was a facetious, smart-assed, A vs B mocking, low brow one actually.... And so will the 777 and 350-1000, but I still think the 748 will get a
120 OldAeroGuy : But US had an exclusivity deal with Airbus, at least for single aisle airplanes. This is what made the EU requirements for the MD/Boeing merger so lu
121 DeltaDC9 : MS never had a monopoly. That is an exageration, Unix, Zenix, Linux, MicroVMS, OS2, and others including Apple have or had a sufficient portion of th
122 FlyABR : that said...what is so "cutting edge" about the A380?? it is huge, yes...but what about it makes it head and shoulders above the 748 from a technolog
123 JRDC930 : I dont think its obsolete, but some influential south east Asian carriers have come out an openly derided the 748I, im not saying all airlines agree
124 Post contains images Stitch : Well they do have to justify to their board and shareholders their decision to stick with a program that was running two years behind schedule and im
125 Zvezda : There are three measures of efficiency in an airliner (following from the Breguet range equation): structural efficiency, aerodynamic efficiency, and
126 Post contains links Keesje : I think the A380 is the most advanced airliner flying. And I guess the rest of the earospace community too. Nearly 400 patents were requested and rew
127 FlyABR : thanks...interesting! patents or the number of them can mean absolutely nothing. i can get a patent for developing a certain type of toe nail cutter.
128 Zvezda : Like the DC-7 was. Virtually all patent requests are granted, no matter how trivial or silly. About ten years ago, a man in Australia was awarded a p
129 Post contains links Keesje : - Zero Splice inlet that is integrated into the A380 engines' nacelles contributes significantly to the A380s very low noise emissions. - Carbon Fibe
130 FlyABR : how does that fit into technological advances...?
131 TKV : Does somebody has a payload/range chart for the A388 ?? and concretely, which is the payload it can carry for 8,000 m, ?? Thanks in advance TKV
132 Post contains links Zvezda : I'm reminded of the oft repeated on A.net Airbus' claim that the CFRP construction of the 787 would save only 500kg relative to the Al-Li previously
133 Bok269 : Even Airbus is saying the A380 is an evolution rather than a revolution. All new planes come with new performance enhancing features like these. Will
134 Zvezda : Yes, most likely. Boeing could further stretch the 747-8 another 7 frames and produce a 747-9. It would need 787-sized GEnx engines, longer maingear,
135 Bok269 : I'm pro-Boeing all the way. The 747 has had its run, and now is in its last incarnation. Will the A380 outsell the 748? It has so far. Only time will
136 Tdscanuck : We've had CFRP primary structure for years. A 777 has large computing resources with a two-way deterministic backbone. I'm not saying the A380 hasn't
137 Zvezda : Airbus have sold more WhaleJets (165) in seven years than Boeing have sold 747-8s (90) in two years. During those last two years, Airbus have sold on
138 DistantHorizon : Keesje was not speculating. You are, with some wishfull thinking in the meddle. I thought everyone had already accepted this: many costumers are wait
139 Post contains images DeltaDC9 : It could exceed every promise, but if constant steady adequate loads do not materialise for most of them, their value will be comprimised. It all com
140 Zvezda : That the DC-7 was the most advanced airliner between its first flight and EIS is not speculation. In a world without the 747-8, A350-1000, and 787-10
141 Post contains images WAH64D : and the one you deliberately missed out? how many A380s did Airbus sell in the first 2 years? If BA don't order the B748i next month, its as good as
142 Stitch : So if BA doesn't buy the A388, it's dead too? BA is the most important VLA customer in the world, being such trend-setter that everyone is waiting fo
143 Keesje : Composites fuselages where also studied tried & rejected during the last 30 years for many valid reasons. Lets hope the 787 also uses mostly existing
144 Post contains images Zvezda : Airbus sold 78 WhaleJets in the first two years, compared with 90 747-8s. However, that's neither a fair comparison nor a good indicator of future sa
145 BoomBoom : Not everyone has accepted this. How many times have we been told that the A380 is exceeding its performance targets, and the airlines have this infor
146 JRDC930 : The 380 program has more than one passenger customer though, so what if BA doesn't order it, it wont really impact the 380, they never ordered it in
147 DeltaDC9 : When did I ever downplay anything about the 380? What I said was the truth, and could be applied to the 777 a decade earlier and the 767 before it bo
148 EI321 : Thats not true at all. There had been passenger jets flying since 1949. The DC-7 EIS was in 1953. And in any case, did I miss something? Is the A380
149 DeltaDC9 : 1) The 380 will rarely seat over 525 people or so, throwing out that 650 number is a straw man. 2) There are other ways, where have you been? 3) Look
150 Post contains images Flysherwood : Boeing has sold more 747-8's in the last 2-1/2 years than Airbus has sold A380's!
151 Zvezda : The WhaleJet is probably the last new metal fuselage airliner. Actually, now it's 25 orders. Again, that's apples to oranges. The A380F was planned f
152 Tdscanuck : Really? If you want to fly 650 people in an airplane with a (max) 80m x 80m footprint, what configuration options to you realistically have other tha
153 EI321 : The design goes up to 650 seats in the A380-900. Theres no way you could fit 650 three class seats on a single level in an 80 metre long airplne. And
154 Tdscanuck : No pneumatic system. Three-day final assembly (in theory). Composite fan case. Composite wing. Also, saying "apart from the fuselage design," in this
155 WCS : It’s a total irrelevant statement, IMO. Apart for fellows living on a cave since a couple of years, the A380 was clearly in trouble after the fiasc
156 DeltaDC9 : You will eventually see a BWB Boeing and Airbus offering, it is only a matter of time. And what "unsolved technical problems" are you referring to? T
157 Zvezda : I think that's true for both VLAs -- perhaps about equally true.
158 SEPilot : Patents mean nothing in and of themselves. I could patent a new design toilet paper holder and put it on an airplane; would that be then considered "
159 JRDC930 : I think this is true, but alot of people here, my self included would be more interested in seeing it as a passenger sucess than a freighter, mainly
160 Stitch : There are a good deal more 747-400 operators then BA out there and I do not believe BA is the only one of them looking at the 747-8I.
161 JRDC930 : Not to beat a dead horse, but they are also looking at 777's and other Airbus as well, so its not a done deal anymore like many of us thought that BA
162 DeltaDC9 : I find it hard to believe that LH would invest time and money in a model with zero market appeal as many imply. They will eventually sell these plane
163 Post contains images WAH64D : No, because it has actually flown and has a good few blue chip airline customers. B748i has LH, thats it. If it was a desireable B744 replacement it
164 DeltaDC9 : Back the train up. 744 replacement is just now at its infancy, why would they replace planes that are not ready for replacement? Why place orders way
165 Bok269 : Let me just put it out there that I would love to see the 748 outsell the A380. I don't think it will. That is my gut feeling. I hope I'm wrong, but
166 Post contains links Keesje : I think Emirates actually specified & will fly 648 seaters soon. http://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/3447262 Apart from
167 Zvezda : Clear? Yes, clearly wrong.
168 WCS : Agree. But I would hate to deal with the kind of drama that the A380 had to face. Definitively not the kind of PR one will enjoy to face. If A380 man
169 Post contains images Flysherwood : I did say 747-8, which would combine the 747-8I and 8F!
170 Stitch : And yet the B747-8I is still herself somewhat still in her "definition" stage. While I don't expect miracles, Boeing is likely tying to make it bette
171 BoomBoom : What your interested in is totally irrelevant to the business case for the 748.
172 SEPilot : I don't know of many 744's (if any) going to the grave yard; 741's and 742's are, but I have yet to hear of an undamaged 744 being scrapped.
173 Post contains images WAH64D : I accept your comments and will keep your point in mind. IMO of course
174 Stitch : Used 744s are in strong demand right now, with lease rates continuing to climb.
175 Post contains images Keesje :
176 SEPilot : Just because a large number of 400 to 500 seat aircraft are coming due for replacement does not mean that they will be replaced with 400 to 500 seat a
177 JRDC930 : Of which the passenger version if sucessful plays a part of, granted maybe not as much as the F version, but it is still important.
178 Bok269 : In addition, carriers are trying to offer more frequencies. For example, NH is looking to get rid of most of their 747s and replace them with 767, 77
179 JRDC930 : Correction on my part, i mean being removed from mainline service, not necessarily being scrapped
180 Post contains images ER757 : I'll respectfully disagree with this comment. It would not surprise me at all if UA and NW order the 748i when they are financially able. I don't see
181 Post contains images SEPilot : My thoughts exactly. Boeing's crystal ball can be just as cracked as anyone else's.
182 Zvezda : UA have 7 routes (to NRT, PVG, and PEK) requiring a fleet of 12 VLAs where they don't have a reasonable option of increasing frequencies.
183 BoomBoom : Well they saw the possibility of ETOPS advances when they went for the 777, and that paid off. It sent to the A340 to the cemetery. When Airbus annou
184 Post contains images Zvezda : That's an overstatement. The A340-600 is still selling in decent numbers. The aircraft that will finally send it to the cemetery is the A350. Another
185 Post contains images BoomBoom : No, they only botched the production, demand, and underestimated the competition's response and technology advances. So if I could go back and edit m
186 Post contains images WAH64D : Let me see. The A380 IFE wiring loom problem was an exercise in stupidity, however I would not go as far as to say that they thoroughly botched the p
187 EI321 : The A380's demand forcasts have not dropped. Demand for the A3XX was put in the 1990's at being around 500 frames (I think this was for the passenger
188 Zvezda : This is very curious. That demand which should have been only for the WhaleJet should now be distributed also among the 747-8, A350-1000, and 787-10.
189 EI321 : The fact is that pretty much all of the airlines that have ordered the A380 have also gone and ordered the 787 and/ or the A350, in the same way that
190 Zvezda : I'm not sure I'm following you here. Did you accidently reverse the meaning? The 777-200ER and A330 have higher CASM than the 747-400, though near en
191 Post contains links Keesje : No it seems not. http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z...ittervalueBriefin.jpg?t=1188556958 Apart from that I think CASM is hugely overrated here on a
192 Post contains images EI321 : and I would like to add: Even the 767-300ER has 1. comparable CASM to the 747-400, 2. came out at about the same time as the 747-400.
193 SEPilot : I totally agree; but it still isn't perfect. But to be fair, conditions could well change leading to a surge in demand for VLA's, in which both the A
194 Keesje : When I worked for a big network carrier dissapointing corporate contracts, travel agencies, sales organizations and local authorities by delibarately
195 EI321 : But that applies to every aircraft, not just VLA's. If it was just about flying smaller aircraft we would see airlines replacing their 767's and A330
196 SEPilot : Are you saying that the 737-900ER has better CASM than the A330? I don't believe it can match it on range, however, which would preclude it replacing
197 EI321 : Im saying that its probably similar, but that does not mean that airlines will rush to replace their A330's with the 737-900ER on the premise that th
198 Zvezda : I have a friend who used to do fleet planning for a carrier which operated both the 767-300ER and the 747-400. He says that's impossible. Fuel was fa
199 Post contains links and images BoomBoom : But not enough to break even. But the 748 program of both freighters and pax planes will not only break even, but show a profit. Less than a year ago
200 SEPilot : This is true, and will keep some demand in place for VLA's. But with all airlines (at least in the US) struggling to make money I think that doing so
201 Wsp : Wasn't that the logic behind your expectation last year that EK (and possibly others) would seize the opportunity to reduce their A380 orders without
202 Post contains images Wsp : Hmm, from what I read the An-124 outsold the 747-8F so far this year...
203 Post contains images Stitch : How many An-124s have been sold? I see the Russian Air Force is selling their 21 An-124s by the end of this year.
204 Post contains links Wsp : http://mnweekly.ru/national/20070830/55271182.html
205 Stitch : Ah, thanks. 150t lift...just like the A388F...
206 SEPilot : The AN-124 can carry loads that are too big and/or too heavy for the 748, but I believe that its economics as far as ton-mile costs do not begin to c
207 Post contains images Flysherwood : What the heck do you call a two year delay, $ 6 Billion in lost profit, an additional $5+ Billion in development costs, hundreds of $millions in dela
208 Wsp : Its 5 CEOs. I suspect your other numbers are probably off by a billion or two as well. So far this year the statistics say otherwise. But then sales
209 Post contains images Keesje : How many CEO's did Boeing have during the last 4 years & why? & on the 747-8i (stretch) & 787 cost rises & production ramp up, what was this about a
210 Zvezda : So far, very well for Airbus. However, see Keesje's insight below. Fair enough, it's not over 'til it's over.
211 Post contains images Flysherwood : Maybe they are. I suspect that my estimates are on the low side of the billions thrown away on this giant white pachyderm known as the whalejet.
212 Post contains images Flysherwood : One couldn't cut the mustard and one couldn't keep his pant zipper shut. Neither invested $ 15+ billion in a program that will NEVER see a dime of pr
213 SEPilot : 1 order of 17 by the same company that operates the only ones in the world does not constitute a worldwide rush by the freight carriers of the world
214 Post contains images Keesje : And one tried to bribe the US tax payer into buying an old horse at the price of an amazone. What do you know that the airlines below don't.. ..or sh
215 Post contains images Flysherwood : Alot of airlines bought the L1011 and the MD-11. Where are both companies now?
216 DeltaDC9 : The fact Airbus is unlikely to break even on the 380 has nothing to do with the fact that it is a fine plane that will serve the airlines well, as lo
217 Post contains images Flysherwood : BTW there are two airlines on that picture that need to be taken off. UPS and Virgin Atlantic.
218 Wsp : If to Airbus the same happens that happened to MD-11's manufacturer then we will soon have not only the Boeing MD-11s but also Boeing A380s...
219 Post contains images Zvezda : With VS, it's clear but not yet official. And as long as UPS are not complaining about it, Airbus have better things to do than remove the UPS sticke
220 Columba : UPS, yes, but VS did not cancel their A380s.
221 Flysherwood : You are absolutely correct. Making a great aircraft has nothing to do with making a profit from it. I have talked to quite a few pilots who feel that
222 Post contains images Flysherwood : That is too funny Wsp!!!
223 Flysherwood : VS has deferred delivery indefinitely. Mr. Branson is making noise about no more 4 engine airframes for VS. So, as they say, the writing is on the wa
224 Tdscanuck : At some nebulous point in the future, we will probably see a commercial BWB. However, the fact remains that this flat out wasn't an option when the A
225 XT6Wagon : Even worse your toiletpaper holder could be several patents alone. get one for the cutting edge, get one for the plastic casing. one for the "lock",
226 Keesje : Airlines are rescheduling their fleets to generate overall best revenue. Your 757 probably wasn´t parked but rescheduled on an other flight, maybe a
227 Bok269 : The CASM of a CRJ isn't great. However, operating more CRJ flights allows them to operate more frequencies without increasing capacity. This is why a
228 Zvezda : The CASM of RJs is surprisingly high, but so it the RASM.
229 Post contains images Iwok : Thanks, and I apreciate that. Its great when people take on the infamous "K" Yes, the big "K" has a very open mind, especially for the 747. I think i
230 Zvezda : Most of your post is spot on, but this is just wrong. SQ, for example, are in the midst of choosing between the 777F and the 747-8F. By all accounts,
231 Post contains images WingedMigrator : I had run some fuel burn numbers for a 4000 nm sector @ max payload... and definitely agree with that assessment. The 777F comes within 3 or 4% of th
232 Iwok : I do agree with you in many ways Z. What I mean by a "notch" is that Boeing pitches the 777F as the next model in the freighter range so to speak, an
233 Zvezda : What's the difference?
234 Columba : What would be more interesting for me is the question if LH could switch some of their purchase rights for the 747-8I into ones for the 787 and if the
235 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...LH's Mayrhuber has stated that he expects a number of carriers to purchase the B748I, also, ILFC's Hazy has stated that Airbus will probably sell
236 EI321 : Your just mating a pessimistic A380 quote with an optomistic 748i quote! Wrong. Can you tell me how many 747-400F's were ordered in the 12 months pri
237 Zvezda : I've been trying to make that point for years. The passenger 747-400 was killed by the A340-600 and, to a lessor extent, by the 777-300ER.
238 Gbfra : This was obvious.
239 Zvezda : Check the archives. It's stunning how many people believe otherwise.
240 EI321 : Well the A340-600 was intended as a replacement for the 747, and I think (it does not take a genuius to conclude) that Boeing launched the the 777-30
241 Stitch : 13 744Fs and 17 744ERFs for a total of 30. 65 747-8Fs have been ordered as of the end of August. Boeing may not have needed to launch the 747-8F to c
242 Bok269 : I don't think other aircraft killed the 747 so much as the market which was beginning to demand more and more frequencies vs. larger aircraft.
243 Zvezda : The market was demanding higher frequencies because smaller aircraft e.g. A340 and 777 became available the CASM of which was not much higher and the
244 Bok269 : But by the same token, Narrowbody mainline flights are being replaced by RJs, which definately have higher CASM.
245 Zvezda : Yes, and higher RASM too. Given the same product e.g. seats, seating density, food, IFE, service, etc., RASM always increases as aircraft size decrea
246 Post contains links and images Keesje : yeah like 1.5 yr ago when I suggested a more realistic seatcount for the 8i would be 400 iso a typical 459 http://www.airliners.net/discussions...gen
247 JRDC930 : Im aware of this, and i know he has great connections in the industry, but if LH really liked th plane, he may be biased toward it. Maybe BA and the
248 Wsp : I think the debate is mainly about who killed the 747-8I, the A380 or the 787.
249 ER757 : I'd say neither - see reply #242 for the more likely answer
250 Post contains links and images BoomBoom : SUH. Isn't he the guy who awarded the old A350 the Silver Medal? He also doesn't like the current A350 fuselage with composite panels over an aluminu
251 Gbfra : This appears premature to me. The renewal of the B744 fleets is only about to begin.
252 Zvezda : The 747-8I is far from dead; no one has killed it yet. The only aircraft on the horizon with a chance of doing so is the A350-1000, which will surely
253 Post contains images Iwok : And this was, as stated by Boeing, done to keep the line running until the 748 was available for delivery, so what ever point you are trying to make
254 XT6Wagon : which interestingly enough Boeing sold out the remaining 744F slots in record time, then increased production a modest ammount and still had to tell
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