Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008  
User currently offlineFCKC From France, joined Nov 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 4
Posted (6 years 12 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 7276 times:

http://today.reuters.fr/news/newsArt..._0_OFRBS-AIRBUS-CHINE-20070903.XML

Sorry unable to find a link in English

J Leahy declared (I already see the comments to come ..........) China will need 113 A380s for the next 20 years to come.

He also said Air China and China Eastern will order A380s next year.

I predict a "strong" thread.

Interesting to see the comments of A.netters about A380 and China.

66 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCartoonranger From United Arab Emirates, joined Aug 2005, 89 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (6 years 12 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 7256 times:

Interesting as it's now official that SIA have taken a stake in China Eastern

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6975697.stm


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6887 posts, RR: 63
Reply 2, posted (6 years 12 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 7194 times:

113 seems a bit steep but over 20 years that's just 5 - 6 a year so who knows?

What I think is beyond doubt is that Airbus will sell more A380s in China than China Southern's initial 5 and that more than one airline will operate it. I take Air China as a given (a matter of 'when', not 'if') and China Eastern must be considered a possibility too (although they've never flown anything bigger than an A340-600).

Indeed, China must be a major source of hope for Airbus. The economy is bursting at the seams, air travel is shooting up and Chinese airlines seem to have an insatiable appetite. (Shame about the environment  Sad)

In the not too distant future I can see both Air China and China Southern with, say, 15 each. But where will Leahy get the next 83 from?  Confused

Is he suggesting that Air China and China Southern will have, say, 35 each, China Eastern will have perhaps 20 and some other airlines (Hainan? Shanghai?) will pick up the remaining couple of dozen?

Well, maybe but not any time in the near future...


User currently offlineTruemanQLD From Australia, joined Feb 2007, 1528 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 12 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 7140 times:

I think 113 is reachable. What I want to know is how they get these exact figures when if the slightest thing changes this could be upto 50 A/C off. What if there was an accident and chinese aviation lost a bit of ground? Anyway I think that China Eastern and Air China will definetly order 10 or so each and with say 15 options between them

User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (6 years 12 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 7050 times:

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 3):
What I want to know is how they get these exact figures when if the slightest thing changes this could be upto 50 A/C off.

They are just an estimate. Boeing compiles estimates also. If you go to airbus.com or boeing.com, there are rather extensive market for casts for the next 20 years which cover each geological region and each aircraft size.


User currently offlineCarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2954 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (6 years 12 months 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 6943 times:

A few weeks ago, CAAC was complaining airport congestion at PEK.
Xiamen Airlines turns around and orders up more Boeing 737s.
So much for the government having a hand in the market.

Anyways, if market predictions come true, 113 will be a very low number of A380s being operated by any Chinese airline.
If markets are truely liberalized, we could have Ryanair China-version and have it certified for 900+ pax.


User currently offlineElger From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 6240 times:

Looking at China Southern on Wikipedia, I read regarding their orders:

Airbus A3890-800 (5 orders) 880 (20/80/780). Entry into service 2009
========================================================

Anybody heard of such configuration and how it looks ??

If real, it could only be for intra-China service, in which case it would be relatively short range and therefore all its long range capabilities would be misspent!

Comments ??

Elger


User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 26940 posts, RR: 58
Reply 7, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 6190 times:

Quoting Elger (Reply 6):
If real, it could only be for intra-China service, in which case it would be relatively short range and therefore all its long range capabilities would be misspent!

Comments ??

If it works and makes a good profit on a short haul route I dont think it is misspent!! It will do alot of long hauls. Short haul will only work in certain markets. One might say that the A380 fits into both L/H and S/H markets. Rather than just L/H. Time will tell but 113 is a realistic number and seems achievable.


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17442 posts, RR: 46
Reply 8, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 6153 times:

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 3):
I think 113 is reachable.

Seeing as they've barely sold this amount thus far, I'm not holding my breath.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12432 posts, RR: 37
Reply 9, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 6128 times:

I guess my first reaction would be, "where are the two customers that were to come in 2007?"!

That said (and assuming China, for the purposes of this thread, excludes HK), I think CA and MU are likely candidates; they are after all, the "big three" and one isn't going to want another to get too far ahead. Can't see any of the other carriers - Shanghai, Hainan etc - having a need for them, at least in the short term, but 20 years down the line, maybe ...

So, 113 seems quite achievable, but for now, I can't see either of the big three having a need for much more than 10-12 each.


User currently offlineElger From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 5986 times:

Quoting OA260 (Reply 7):
If it works and makes a good profit on a short haul route I dont think it is misspent!! It will do alot of long hauls. Short haul will only work in certain markets. One might say that the A380 fits into both L/H and S/H markets. Rather than just L/H. Time will tell but 113 is a realistic number and seems achievable.

ve

Have you calculated the CASM/pax for this long range extra heavy aircraft (its aerodynamic advantages are not relevant on such short routes) on the only routes where such a cattle-like transport would be possible, even there at expense of the frequency ??
Shanghai-HongKong: 665 nm straight
Shanghai-Beijing: 576 nm straight
HongKong-Beijing: 1,254 straight ??

IMHO this short haul idea is an intent to see a market for the A380 where there is none !

When Southern Airlines came up with their idea the oil cost was a fraction of todays and could be at this time eventually justified !

An very adequate aircraft for such routes would be the B787-3 !!

Elger


User currently offlineGbfra From Germany, joined Sep 2006, 448 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 5935 times:

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 9):
So, 113 seems quite achievable, but for now, I can't see either of the big three having a need for much more than 10-12 each

Boeing as well as Airbus are predicting a very strong capacity growth for the next 20 years. If this will become true (nobody knows for sure) in 2027 the Chinese market for airliners could look quite different than today's market.

Quoting Elger (Reply 10):
Have you calculated the CASM/pax for this long range extra heavy aircraft (its aerodynamic advantages are not relevant on such short routes) on the only routes where such a cattle-like transport would be possible, even there at expense of the frequency ??
Shanghai-HongKong: 665 nm straight
Shanghai-Beijing: 576 nm straight
HongKong-Beijing: 1,254 straight ??

If you kindly look at the Chinese map you will easily find other huge agglomerations than the three you mentioned.

Quoting Elger (Reply 10):
IMHO this short haul idea is an intent to see a market for the A380 where there is none !

(The late Aminobwana and TKV were equally critical of the A380. Will the third incarnation last longer than the previous ones?)

Quoting Elger (Reply 10):
An very adequate aircraft for such routes would be the B787-3 !!

Only if you are in favour of airport congestion. In the long run they will need bigger planes (not necessarily the A380).



The fundamental things apply as time goes by
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21511 posts, RR: 60
Reply 12, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 5892 times:

Quoting FCKC (Thread starter):
J Leahy declared (I already see the comments to come ..........) China will need 113 A380s for the next 20 years to come.

I think Boeing had a similar count for total VLAs in 2006 (3% rounded of 2880 frames, or up to 100), but unlike Leahy, Boeing doesn't assume the entire nut will go to the 748I/F. Leahy of course dismisses the 748 and believes all orders will go to Airbus.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineGbfra From Germany, joined Sep 2006, 448 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 5880 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 12):
Leahy of course dismisses the 748 and believes all orders will go to Airbus.

Any source for your claim?



The fundamental things apply as time goes by
User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 26940 posts, RR: 58
Reply 14, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 5868 times:

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 11):
If you kindly look at the Chinese map you will easily find other huge agglomerations than the three you mentioned.

You beat me to it LOL....

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 11):
(The late Aminobwana and TKV were equally critical of the A380. Will the third incarnation last longer than the previous ones?)

Makes you wonder ....  Wink

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 11):
Only if you are in favour of airport congestion. In the long run they will need bigger planes (not necessarily the A380).

Very true . Also didn't Kingfisher state that they had an idea of competing with India's train networks on longer routes using max capacity A380's ???


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21511 posts, RR: 60
Reply 15, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 5846 times:

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 13):
Any source for your claim?

It can be inferred from his projections now and in the past, and his statements regarding the 748.

You know, not everything in life must be cited when the reality is obvious. It's tiresome when people say you can't have an opinion or analyze anything unless you quote somebody else already saying it or analyzing it. It's called original thought, and it may be dying, but it's not dead yet.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineGbfra From Germany, joined Sep 2006, 448 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 5806 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 15):
It can be inferred from his projections now and in the past, and his statements regarding the 748.

You know, not everything in life must be cited when the reality is obvious.

Which means: "I'm too lazy to check facts so I'm just writing what comes to my mind. And everybody has to accept my imagination as truth."
If you checked facts you knew that you are writing plain nonsense.



The fundamental things apply as time goes by
User currently offlineAbba From Denmark, joined Jun 2005, 1334 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 5736 times:

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 9):
So, 113 seems quite achievable, but for now, I can't see either of the big three having a need for much more than 10-12 each.

You must stress "for now" very much as "for now" dosn't last very long in China these days!

Abba


User currently offlineWsp From Germany, joined May 2007, 458 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 5555 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 12):
I think Boeing had a similar count for total VLAs in 2006 (3% rounded of 2880 frames, or up to 100), but unlike Leahy, Boeing doesn't assume the entire nut will go to the 748I/F.

Airbus' market forecast for passenger VLA for China is 113:

http://www.airbus.com/store/mm_repos...object_file_AirbusGMF2006-2025.pdf
page 17 (PDF page 10) table at the bottom right

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 12):
Leahy of course dismisses the 748 and believes all orders will go to Airbus.

I doubt you can read minds to know what Leahy believes.

[Edited 2007-09-07 00:56:35]

User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 5527 times:

Coincidently this week I talked to an Air China person closely involved in fleetplanning and he told me there were no short term plans for the A380..

User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30901 posts, RR: 87
Reply 20, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 5512 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

I can see scores of A380 in China and India to help funnel folks into and out of the hubs...

...along with hundreds of 787-3s to get them from those hubs to other cities within both countries.

Win-win for both manufacturers, the airlines, and the passengers. What's not to like?  Smile


User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3382 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 5472 times:

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 9):
So, 113 seems quite achievable, but for now, I can't see either of the big three having a need for much more than 10-12 each.

Neither does Airbus up to 2015, it seems. They predict 35 VLA sales 2006-2015. Then they predict much higher demand - 78 sales in the following 10 years.

http://www.airbus.com/store/mm_repos...object_file_AirbusGMF2006-2025.pdf
page 17 (PDF page 10) table at the bottom right


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21511 posts, RR: 60
Reply 22, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 5454 times:

Quoting Wsp (Reply 18):
I doubt you can read minds to know what Leahy believes.

So you think Leahy dismisses the 748 but secretly believes it will win a lot of orders? Aren't you reading minds?

BTW - all you people getting on my case...

I suggest you consult the Airbus 2006 Global Market Forecast
http://www.airbus.com/store/mm_repos...object_file_AirbusGMF2006-2025.pdf

In the China Section, Airbus predicts demand for 113 VLA passenger sales to China for 20 years, which just so happens to be the exact number of A380's he said they will need.

Projected 747-8 passenger sales to China by Leahy? ZERO.

Have a nice day.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21511 posts, RR: 60
Reply 23, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 5403 times:

And by the way, his projection is backloaded for 80 birds 2016-2025, which again begs the question of why Airbus launched the plane when they did, when all their projections are that the market wants the plane from 2010 onward, and there would be pent up demand if it were to EIS in 2012, for example.

By 2016 or later, the A380 won't be as cutting edge, as it will have (in theory) been in service 10 years (now 8 years). 2/3rds of the passenger 744s were delivered within the first 10 years after feb 1989 EIS, as the technology was falling behind toward the end of the century. Despite the world aviation market growing, demand for the outdated 744 was slowing. An ER model didn't help, and the F model really became the model to sell.

But Leahy projects the demand for A380 PAX planes to be backloaded, so will this mean in 10 years people will except such old technology, or will Airbus have to "NG" the A380 to keep it current, at great expense.

EIS in 2012 with the latest technology available at that date, the A380 program could easily have filled the demand for the world with a plane that wouldn't be considered "that old" by 2025.

Anyway, I wish Airbus luck selling the A380 in 2016 and later, especially against their own super efficient A350-1000 and whatever Y3 Boeing brings along...



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineWsp From Germany, joined May 2007, 458 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 5365 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 22):
So you think Leahy dismisses the 748 but secretly believes it will win a lot of orders? Aren't you reading minds?

A company official on a sales pitch will rarely spend time highlighting his competitor's product's potential. I certainly don't. But to assume that therefore this person is ignorant or unaware of its competitor's products is far fetched.


25 Post contains links ZiggyStardust : On the A380 evac test, there were only 873 participants. Do you need to remove flight crew from the number? If the plane's for domestic service, can
26 Atmx2000 : 113? Gee that is awfully precise. Not 112, or 114. You got to wonder why people throw out precise numbers like that instead of rounding to the nearest
27 Art : What is the expense of smacking a newer engine on the aircraft? A few $ hundred million?
28 Zvezda : As long as Chinese airlines continue to fly 737s PEK-SHA, the idea of operating WhaleJets on this route is far-fetched.
29 Robbie86 : I think we will see alot of 380's not only in China but also in India in the near future. As these two countries holds 1/3 of the world population and
30 Zvezda : The problem with this scenario is that it assumes very little fragmentation. China has a dozen cities with more than 5M in population. I expect that
31 Stitch : I am sure fragmentation will happen, and likely much quicker then it did in other "developed" countries, but even with a dozen cities that could serv
32 Airbazar : The only problem with that theory is that I don't see that much of an increase in the number of people in China who can afford to travel transpacific
33 Zvezda : A population of 5M within the city limits is not required to be an international gateway. China has over a hundred cities that could see internationa
34 Stitch : But if I was an airline based in PEK, PVG and HKG, I'd be considering A388s and 787-3s to feed them...
35 Art : Savings ratios figures cited on the BBC business program today: in the UK, US and Germany consumers save 30%. My conclusion: the Chinese soon will be
36 Post contains images Astuteman : I'm not sure it does...... 113 A380's (or 113 VLA's - whatever) in 20 years..... What do Boeing and Airbus forecast for total widebody sales in the r
37 Wsp : From BEIJING to SHANGHAI Mon, Sep 10, 2007 CA1831 7:25 9:40 330 CA1501 8:35 10:40 330 CA1519 9:30 11:40 74E CA1557 11:30 13:40 744 CA1517 13:25 15:40
38 Post contains images Stitch : Now that's a perfect 787-3 route, right there.
39 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...maybe you should do some background work on Leahy's comments regarding the B787....
40 Ikramerica : You said that, not me. I said he dismisses the market for the 748 and assume the A380 will capture 100% of the market, and his comments and forecasts
41 Wsp : Seriously, I doubt that. They keep up-sizing equipment on that route. And the demand will only go up. Maybe I should have said "praising" instead of
42 Stitch : But the advantage is you can put more 787-3s side by side then you can A388s and you don't need specialized gates to maximize their efficiency. Plus,
43 Post contains images TeamAmerica : Source? (Just kidding...couldn't resist!)   The 113 seems startlingly low coming from Airbus. Even Boeing projects 990 VLA's worldwide, and it woul
44 Abba : That is an understatement! A 5m city in China is next to nothing. There are a few cities/regions with well over 20 million people - the Pearl River D
45 Post contains images Wsp : It was marketing a product to customers. If you want to believe that Airbus believes that "Boeing will sell zero 748 pax jets to China in 20 years" t
46 Post contains images Wsp : Thats bad news for the 787-3 then BTW. Just to clarify this, I don't make any assumptions about the equipment they will fly there. I just was surpris
47 Post contains images Khobar : Xiamen Airlines didn't place the order. The gubmint ministry of airliner procurement did. A what? A what? Leahy has been quite vocal about Boeing pro
48 Airbazar : Yes, but what is the average salary in China vs. UK/US/Germany? 30% savings on a $1,500/yr salary isn't going to take you very far, while for even a
49 Ikramerica : Airbus launched the A380 with government funds by making absurd assumptions in their forecasts. Yes. And they must continue to make those statements
50 Post contains images MadameConcorde : Again, why 113? Is 113 good feng shui ?
51 Post contains images Ikramerica : well 11-3 is 8, and 8 is a lucky number in China, right? That MUST be the reason...
52 Post contains links SJCRRPAX : Until 2010 when a High-Speed rail line will open and travel time will be less than 5hrs. http://www.railway-technology.com/projects/beijing/index.htm
53 Wsp : Their business plan did not require 100% VLA market share to be profitable based on their forecast. Do you think they will not reach and exceed the b
54 Ikramerica : In an interview you might. You might say "at least 100 A380s to China over the next 20 years" and you sound more confident than if you say "113." Bei
55 Ikramerica : You need to go back and read a bunch of threads and look at the math, clearly layed out, over time. The A380 business plan did, in fact, rely on the
56 HawkerCamm : Airbus will in time re-engine the A380 with A350XWB standard engines. That will reduce fuel burn by ~7%. I would expect Airbus to do this when they l
57 Astuteman : Airbus launched the A380 primarily with privately raised funding. The numbers touted on here for the development cost reduce the RLI element to the n
58 Astuteman : Although the fact that the -XWB is being developed specifically for Airbus, specifically by RR, allows the possibility for simplifying some of this p
59 Post contains links Wsp : EADS First Annual Report (2000) http://www.eads.com/1024/en/investor...OF00000000400004/7/19/29607197.pdf (page 26, PDF page 28) What you wrote in yo
60 Post contains images Wsp : It would be almost negligent if the TrentXWB designers wouldn't have a copy of the interface drawings for the A380 at hand at all times.
61 Post contains images Stitch : Aye, but the A380 wouldn't welcome it, either, I imagine. At Xiamen's request, I expect. As I understand it, the airlines decide what they feel they
62 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...I still believe that is incorrect....witnessed via the multiple iterations of the A350......not to mention the public "flogging" by the Chews, Haz
63 Post contains images Khobar : I dunno about that. One of the questions that surfaced recently when China placed the 150 A320 order was who were they for, and part of the answer wa
64 Wsp : What reaction by Airbus would have in your opinion shown that they correctly assessed the competitive threat? Keep in mind that - Airbus wasn't anywh
65 Gbfra : Again, this is pure nonsense. You obviously have never seen any market forecast by either Boeing or Airbus.
66 Khobar : Ikramerica quoted the Airbus market forecast and then presented Leahy's comments to support his assertion.
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Air China B744 Due At Andrews AFB In 40 Mins! posted Thu Apr 20 2006 01:46:11 by RobK
Air China Is About To Buy A380s posted Mon Sep 13 2004 21:17:04 by Ajet
Air China Earnings Over US$12 Millions In June posted Mon Jul 22 2002 13:56:43 by Carnoc
Air China: The Newest "star" In Star Alliance? posted Sun Oct 15 2000 08:14:48 by Jiml1126
Rumour: Air China To Order A380s @ Paris posted Sun Jun 8 2003 14:08:32 by Teahan
Air China And Shanghai Airlines In *A posted Wed May 9 2007 22:29:07 by Qazar
Two Air China Planes In New York At The Same Time posted Tue Apr 24 2007 04:51:22 by Levg79
ANA, Air China 744 In Doha posted Sat Dec 16 2006 22:00:02 by QatarA340
Air China 738 In Olympic Characters Livery posted Fri Nov 10 2006 18:45:26 by Jimyvr
Air China Special Colors For 2008 Olympics posted Thu Nov 2 2006 15:15:21 by Clickhappy