Ken777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8278 posts, RR: 8
Reply 2, posted (7 years 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 9785 times:
I seem to remember that Boeing was going to stuff the initial 787 themselves, with suppliers picking up the task over a brief period of time. If this is true then more and more work will be completed at the suppliers before shipping the parts to Boeing for final assembly.
Issues like fasteners will probably come and go for both A%B over time, but it seems that Boeing will be able to have a lot of 787s ready for delivery at EIS. If EIS slips a month or two then there will just be that many more 787's waiting for delivery.
So it appears to be three problems for Boeing right now. First is taking care of the fastener problem as quickly as possible and, even more important in my mind, is getting the software up to speed. The last problem will be having sufficient planes to complete flight testing as rapidly as possible, while still being conservative on getting that job done.
I would not be surprised to see a month or two delay in EIS, but believe that deliveries after EIS will progress faster than any other new plane in the jet age.
Joni From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (7 years 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 9695 times:
They're planning to compress the already-compressed flight-test program further? Somehow you'd think their priority should be to get the plane assembled properly and safely and into the air, then conduct the flight-test program according to the already-ambitious plans.
Although this is the second delay for the B787, this isn't as serious as the A380 problems, obviously (however major problems hit the A380 only after the maiden flight). Somehow you'd expect the delay to increase, not decrease, during flight testing so at EIS the delay can be, for example, 3-5 months, which isn't that bad if Boeing and the supply chain can claw it back so that all the 700 agreed deliveries aren't delayed that much (which could be expensive in terms of late-delivery charges).
Boeing is now conceding that if something crops up during the flight-testing, the EIS will be missed:
Quote: "While Bair said Boeing remains confident it can pull off an aggressive, condensed flight-test program in time to deliver the first plane to Japan's All Nippon Airways on time next May, he introduced a note of caution.
"The real issue is if we have some discovery in the flight-test program that causes us to have to go back and do some sort of redesign," Bair said. "We're rapidly running out of time ... to be able to deal with anything big."
Joni From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (7 years 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 9324 times:
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7): Boeing have explicitly said that they don't currently expect first delivery to slip, which I find quite surprising.
They've said they don't expect it to slip, but that if something crops up during the flight-test program it will then slip. In other words what they're saying is that they've now eaten the time they'd allotted in the flight-test phase to correcting any issues.
Airbus has said that prolonging the flight-test phase for the A380 allowed them to make the best of it to improve the dispatch reliability at EIS to beyond what it normally is with new designs. It's possible Boeing will deliver a plane with worse DR than without this delay, if EIS isn't moved forward.
In a nutshell, Boeing has admitted their backs are against the wall as they currently understand the situation before them. They expect to have all four RR-powered 787s into the air no later then January 2008, which they feel will give them sufficient time to perform the necessary flight-test and flight-certification duties to achieve their production certificate for the 787 and deliver LN0007 on time to NH in May 2008. The two GE-powered 787s will be doing mostly GEnx-related certification work so they're not as critical to the program.
Boeing has already completed much of the non-flight-related testing and certification. As such, the four flight-test birds won't need to do as much as previous airliner program test birds have had to. Also, these 787s will not be doing as much airline route-proving and PR work like the first A388 birds did, so they'll be spending more of their time on certification and test. And Boeing intends to operate these planes "24x7, 7 days a week", so they will not artificially restrict their testing to daylight hours when not required to do so.
As such, Boeing feels they can still pull it off. Their next update is October, so we'll know more then...