777ER From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 11319 posts, RR: 17 Posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 1417 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW FORUM MODERATOR
China will require 3,400 new airplanes worth about $340 billion over the next 20 years, according to Boeing's updated annual forecast for the commercial airplane market. The complete forecast, known as the Boeing Current Market Outlook, is available on the Boeing Web site.
Over the forecast period, China will have the fastest-growing market, making it the largest market outside of the U.S. for new commercial airplanes.
China will continue leading all domestic air travel markets with a long-term passenger-kilometer growth rate of 8.8 percent. Following the anticipated surge in passenger traffic for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, the China domestic market will grow nearly five-fold by 2026 to become slightly larger than today's intra-North American market.
Shenzhen From United States of America, joined Jun 2003, 1701 posts, RR: 2 Reply 1, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 1342 times:
Quoting 777ER (Thread starter): Over the forecast period, China will have the fastest-growing market, making it the largest market outside of the U.S. for new commercial airplanes.
US Carriers better get on with the ordering, as they aren't the largest anything as of late...
StarGoldLHR From Heard and McDonald Islands, joined Feb 2004, 1529 posts, RR: 1 Reply 2, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 1312 times:
I guess that will keep the Airbus A320 production line busy once it ramps up in China.
How about the new Chinese RJ they are building....
Once China learn how to build planes mass-production style... Airbus and Boeing will need to watchout... those Chines RJs will cost a 10th of the Western European price !!
So far in 2008 45 flights and Gold already. JFK, IAD, LGA, SIN, HKG, NRT, AKL, PPT, LAX still to book ! Home Airport LCY
Ikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21029 posts, RR: 60 Reply 3, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 1244 times:
Boeing still believes that only 90 total VLA will be needed by China in 20 years.
Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 1): US Carriers better get on with the ordering, as they aren't the largest anything as of late...
Fastest growing doesn't mean largest. US Carriers are still some of the largest airlines in the world, with 5 of the top 10 IIRC.
Chinese carriers will EVENTUALLY grow to similar large sizes, but not so soon that they will take up all the delivery slots for planes...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
TeamAmerica From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 1761 posts, RR: 23 Reply 4, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 1208 times:
Quoting 777ER (Thread starter): Following the anticipated surge in passenger traffic for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, the China domestic market will grow nearly five-fold by 2026 to become slightly larger than today's intra-North American market.
Thanks for this bit of perspective. I am very tired of reading posts suggesting that the Chinese will need dozens of A380's for domestic service. China is big in population and their economy is growing admirably, but the perception is out of step with reality. Twenty years from now they'll be as big a market as North America is in 2007...there might be some niche application for VLA's, but not in any significant number.
Ikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21029 posts, RR: 60 Reply 5, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 1070 times:
Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 4): Twenty years from now they'll be as big a market as North America is in 2007...there might be some niche application for VLA's, but not in any significant number.
Well, they will be connecting larger cities and fewer cities, if I understand it correctly.
But still considering there are zero routine 747 domestic flights in the USA, the idea that China would need 100 domestically when their traffic won't even pass CURRENT USA domestic traffic is just out of step with reality.
The VLA's China will need will be for mostly cargo and international service.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
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