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If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?  
User currently offlineDfw-man From United States of America, joined exactly 15 years ago today! , 218 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 6102 times:

During the past year or so I have noticed that when the topic of American Airlines expanding one of the frequent questions that come up is where will AA get the planes from.Which hub is in most need of new or freed up aircraft to expand the way AA would like to and when will AA have enough aircraft to do so?I think that they are pretty set at DFW but I could be wrong any help on this is much appreciated.

61 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32604 posts, RR: 72
Reply 1, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 6035 times:

Miami and, while not an official hub, New York City-JFK, are most prime for growth, especially international growth, especially if considered in % increase. They also have a new terminal facility at JFK, and will have one at MIA in 2010. Miami has virtually no capacity restrictions. When the construction is done, the airport will be able to handle 60M+ passengers a year, which is significantly more than it handles (~34M a year) now. JFK, though, and New York in general, is definitely becoming congested.

Dallas is always prime for growth, as well. O'Hare is at it's capacity limits, while San Juan and St. Louis are at pretty good sizes. I also think you will see growth out of LA.



a.
User currently offlineOB1504 From United States of America, joined exactly 10 years ago today! , 3305 posts, RR: 9
Reply 2, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 5997 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
Miami has virtually no capacity restrictions. When the construction is done, the airport will be able to handle 60M+ passengers a year, which is significantly more than it handles (~34M a year) now. JFK, though, and New York in general, is definitely becoming congested.

What about summer year-round thunderstorms? As MIA begins to handle more passengers per year, could they have the same devastating effect that they do on airports like JFK?


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32604 posts, RR: 72
Reply 3, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 5987 times:

Quoting OB1504 (Reply 2):

What about summer year-round thunderstorms? As MIA begins to handle more passengers per year, could they have the same devastating effect that they do on airports like JFK?

Even by 2012, MIA will still be operating at probably only 60% of the entire airport's capacity. I don't think it's going to be a much more different situation than it is now. Afternoon, summer (not year-round) thunderstorms are a fact of life in Miami.



a.
User currently offlineCALMSP From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3924 posts, RR: 7
Reply 4, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 5965 times:
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if AA had the planes??

looks like current fleet consists of 654 a/c.........that seems like plenty to me. Especially when you compare it to our (CO) 368 A/C.



okay, I'm waiting for the rich to spread the wealth around to me. Please mail your checks to my house.
User currently offlineMIASkies From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 1343 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 5863 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 3):
Afternoon, summer (not year-round) thunderstorms are a fact of life in Miami.

ditto in DFW...and snow storms too

so weather is not a factor...it is what is is!



Nothing better than making love at 35K Feet!
User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 5846 times:

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 4):
Especially when you compare it to our (CO) 368 A/C.

...not to mention fleet utilization.


User currently onlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6756 posts, RR: 17
Reply 7, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 5791 times:

I don't think the problem is American Airlines needing more aircraft.. I think the problem is American Eagle having the right size aircraft..

If American Eagle was able to switch about 5/8 of their current 308 aircrafts for something a bit larger.. it would make a world of difference.. instead of having so many seats in the 50 and under category.. they could have them in the 70-95 range.. that would make a world of difference..



Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineAccess-Air From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1939 posts, RR: 13
Reply 8, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 5717 times:

Hmmmm, when they gobbled up TWA in 1999, the had alot of planes...but instead of concentrating on maintaining the STL hub they shut it down...and parked many planes....Seems to me they didnt know they had a good thing right in their midst....I would love to see AA go back and rebuild STL into a major hub as it was, as maybe it would ease the already over crowded mess at ORD and DFW....

Access-Air



Remember, Wherever you go, there you are!!!!
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32604 posts, RR: 72
Reply 9, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 5662 times:

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 7):
I don't think the problem is American Airlines needing more aircraft.. I think the problem is American Eagle having the right size aircraft..

Both are problems. AA needs more 40-50 seat aircraft, but they definitely need a 100-seat aircraft in their fleet. These are things that will be resolved hopefully within a year or so, after pilot issues are sorted out.



a.
User currently offlineMoMan From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 5605 times:

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 8):
Hmmmm, when they gobbled up TWA in 1999, the had alot of planes...but instead of concentrating on maintaining the STL hub they shut it down...and parked many planes....Seems to me they didnt know they had a good thing right in their midst....I would love to see AA go back and rebuild STL into a major hub as it was, as maybe it would ease the already over crowded mess at ORD and DFW....

AA tried the three hub strategy. It was easy to choose between DFW, STL, and ORD connections for two years (2001-2003), but the only reason people chose STL was because the price was right (low to fill the flights), and when AA pulled back in Oct 2003 it was to decrease unprofitable flying. They didn't ground that many planes either, only some of the older MD80s (around 30 overall) and let go of the 717s. They have recently disposed of the ~19 TWA 757 aircraft.

Thus, it wasn't that planes were parked so much that they were moved to more profitable locations. In time there will be a return to STL of mainline flights but nothing like there was in the past. I'd be real pleased to see 100 mainline flights a day.



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently offlineBHMNONREV From Australia, joined Aug 2003, 1368 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 5570 times:

Quoting MoMan (Reply 10):
Thus, it wasn't that planes were parked so much that they were moved to more profitable locations. In time there will be a return to STL of mainline flights but nothing like there was in the past. I'd be real pleased to see 100 mainline flights a day.

As would I, but I believe a more optimistic number would be in the 75 range, with another 30-40 Connection/Eagle flights. As well as a possible return to London??


User currently offlineBok269 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 2105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 5487 times:

The A300s are scheduled to leave the fleet in 2012. Most likely, JFK and MIA, where most A300 ops are based, will see the replacement aircraft for the Caribbean and South America runs.


"Reality is wrong, dreams are for real." -Tupac
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32604 posts, RR: 72
Reply 13, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 5469 times:

Quoting BHMNONREV (Reply 11):
As would I, but I believe a more optimistic number would be in the 75 range, with another 30-40 Connection/Eagle flights.

That is being way too optimistic. As we see with Delta right now, future of growth is international traffic, not domestic. That is why MIA and JFK will likely see the most benefits from AA growing in the future, unless something suddenly changes. It is extremely unlikely St. Louis will be at a level much higher than they are today for American Airlines in the foreseeable future, unless the O'Hare situation gets extremely drastic.

Quoting BHMNONREV (Reply 11):
As well as a possible return to London??

I wouldn't rule out STL-LON returning, but not in the near-term.



a.
User currently offlineToxtethogrady From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 1219 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 5450 times:

Quoting MoMan (Reply 10):

AA tried the three hub strategy.

Aw, heck - they even tried a 6-hub strategy. It didn't work too well - three of the hubs have been abandoned. As of now, AA has DFW, ORD and MIA as hubs, and JFK, LAX and SJU as focus cities. LGA appears to be a focus city for Eagle.


User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 5407 times:

Quoting Toxtethogrady (Reply 14):
As of now, AA has DFW, ORD and MIA as hubs, and JFK, LAX and SJU as focus cities. LGA appears to be a focus city for Eagle.

...something about a city in Missouri?


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32604 posts, RR: 72
Reply 16, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 5396 times:

Quoting Toxtethogrady (Reply 14):

Aw, heck - they even tried a 6-hub strategy. It didn't work too well - three of the hubs have been abandoned. As of now, AA has DFW, ORD and MIA as hubs, and JFK, LAX and SJU as focus cities. LGA appears to be a focus city for Eagle.

There are five hubs - Dallas, Chicago, Miami, San Juan, and St. Louis. There are the "official" focus cities at Los Angeles, Boston, JFK, LaGuardia, and Raleigh, and there are the "unofficial" focus cities at Austin and Fort Lauderdale.



a.
User currently offlineSABE From Argentina, joined Jun 2005, 156 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 5314 times:

Quoting MoMan (Reply 10):
They have recently disposed of the ~19 TWA 757 aircraft.

Are all of the ex-TW B752s gone ? I noticed there were a few still listed as active in airfleets.net today, and I hoped it was a mistake  Wink



TUS-DFW-EZE... can't wait to visit home again!
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22726 posts, RR: 20
Reply 18, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 5071 times:

I have to believe they are holding on to far more gates than they need at STL for some reason besides keeping competition out, because there are plenty of other gates for any other carrier's taking. That suggests to me that they anticipate some growth there, though probably in the medium to long term (maybe 5-10 years) rather than in the short term.


I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineElmoTheHobo From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1536 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 4973 times:

MIA, JFK and DFW would see the most growth.

Boston was cut back a lot because of aircraft being pulled from service, though I'm not too sure we'd see additional flights from Boston, save boosting frequencies to MIA, DFW, ORD and LAX.

American clearly wants Los Angeles to keep growing, they just don't have the gate space.


User currently offlineCloud4000 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 641 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 4217 times:

If AA wants to expand from LAX, they better get-- or build-- a new terminal because I went through it a couple of weeks ago and it wasn't a pretty sight. It's only about 10 gates or show and completely crowded. Their terminal in BOS is better, in my opinion.


Boston, USA
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7497 posts, RR: 24
Reply 21, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 4183 times:

Quoting MIASkies (Reply 5):
ditto in DFW...and snow storms too

Snow storms arent really an issue at DFW. They happen once maybe twice a year.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 19):
MIA, JFK and DFW would see the most growth.

 checkmark   checkmark   checkmark 



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineJetBlueGuy2006 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1649 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 4102 times:

Does anyone think that MQ would benefit from something in the range of the E-170/75/90?


Home Airport: Capital Region International Airport (KLAN)
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 23, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 4011 times:

....SJC... stirthepot .....


"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32604 posts, RR: 72
Reply 24, posted (6 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 3865 times:

In terms of overall capacity, I see growth as:

1) JFK
2) DFW
3) MIA

In terms of % capacity, I see growth as:
1) JFK
2) MIA
3) DFW

From New York City/JFK, look for growth internationally, especially to Europe. Milan and Barcelona are just the start. Two more European destinations are being considered to launch next summer, but that is still certainly not definite. You will see Eagle continue to connect some larger markets to feed into the European ops, such as the new Pittsburgh-New York City service. I wouldn't be surprised if they connect a few more dots to some of the more higher-yielding Caribbean resorts as well.

From Miami/MIA, you will see growth, IMO, largely to, of course, Latin America/Caribbean and regionally. Look for American Eagle to better utilize their under-utilized Miami-based ATRs. They are launching Sarasota and Savannah this December, and anything that is within 650 miles of Miami is pretty fair game for American Eagle ATR service. I know they are in discussions with Marathon and Naples airport officials - both of which lack commerical service on a major carrier - to return to those two markets with ATRs from Miami. As I've said before, a daily ATR-72 to Gulfport/Biloxi, Fort Walton Beach, and Mobile would not shock me, nor would 2x daily service to Pensacola. There are also markets in the Bahamas and other nearby islands, as well as Merida, Mexico, that have potential for promise. American Eagle will enter those markets if local resorts provide some revenue guarantees.

With ERJs from Miami, growth can only go so far because Miami is not an ERJ base currently. So any growth in routes is going to be limited because scheduling an ERJ to Miami means finding a way to get here from another ERJ-base. American Eagle's launch of Miami-Fayetteville was more than just a means of pleasing Wal*Mart. While the flight was pretty much a sure thing thanks to American's huge corporate travel contract with Wal*Mart (and there is a slot of wholesale/distributer traffic from Miami itself, as well as, obviously, Latin America), but it was a test on a how a very untraditional and small market, which doesn't even has 50 daily O&D pax, could work from Miami. So far results are excellent. Loads are high, and yields are awesome. It could pave the way for AA to open up other smaller markets from Miami in the short- and long-term future, such as Baton Rouge, Chattanooga, and Columbia (SC). I don't foresee this happening in the short-term future, but I do in the longer term. Short-term, I think we will see Birmingham and Charleston, and an eventual reinforcement of frequencies to Columbus, Memphis, and Richmond.

With adding 75-to-100-seat aircraft, American opens up a huge window of opportunity. Albany, Buffalo, Halifax, Ottawa, Providence...so many oppurtunities exist here.

With domestic mainline from Miami, there are those "when not if" markets. They are the same markets they have always been, and over the past few years AA has entered a few of them - Charlotte, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, and, this winter, Phoenix. Those mainline markets are Austin, Kansas City, Orange County, San Diego, and Seattle.

Internationally short-haul, there is always opportunity to expand, of course. There are a lot of markets served only from San Juan that will eventually be connected to Miami. Antigua is expected to get Miami non-stops by January. Bonaire, Grenada, Fort de France, and Pointe Pitre are markets I expect AA will come into in the future. There is also an opportunity to fly to Cartagena, which is "open skies" so does not require Colombia-USA slots, as well as possibly Pereira, pending Colombia expanidng their bilatteral. Of course, we all know AA wants to fly to Valencia, Venezuela, but the Venezuelan government has yet to approve it. In Central America, Roatan remains a great opportunity that I hope AA takes up soon.

Long-haul, there is a great oppurtunity to take advantage of Africa. I don't foresee this happening, though, until 787s come on line. Accra, Dakar, Lagos, and South Africa, the last three of which have strong local traffic to South Florida, could be great markets. In Europe, if Alitalia does transfer Miami service to Rome, Milan service is inevitable. Giving the strengthing of ties with Iberia, I find Barcelona a likely expansion point too. If ties with British Airways and Brussels Airlines become stronger, then service to Manchester and Brussels is not far-fetched. This is much more long-term, though. I think most oneWorld Europe traffic growth from Miami will come from other OneWorld airlines. In the short-term, I only foresee another London flight, and possibly Milan or Barcelona. In the very long-term, American Airlines has already expressed their interset in flying Miami-Tokyo when the 787 comes into their fleet. To South America long-haul, oppurtunities will hopefully open in Brazil, as well as Cordoba and Asunción.

From Dallas, growth will be pretty typical. I could see a new Asia route, and a new Europe route or two (Madrid is a given within two years, IMO), along with more domestic expansion, mainly with RJs to local points.

My mini-analysis does not take strong account of AA's current shortage of aircraft to really expand. I however, don't foresee this to be a continuing problem as I'm confident that AA will be making aircraft orders for both long-haul and regional aircraft in 2008.

[Edited 2007-09-22 00:31:05]


a.
25 LAXdude1023 : Excellent Anaylsis Mark!!! I enjoyed reading it. I would love to hear what people think is possible in the way of DFW-Asia/Europe in the next few year
26 QQflyboy : There are still 11 ex-TWA 752s active in the fleet. My understanding is they will be gone by November. On the JFK side of growth, we keep hearing HNL
27 MAH4546 : I've been told Moscow (DME, though, not SVO) and Nice will happen this summer if they can get the schedules to work. One way is removing some 763s fo
28 QQflyboy : Also, as an FYI, I know there was another thread recently talking about whether or not AA may seek second hand 757s. In a recent employee Q&A session
29 QQflyboy : I didn't even consider DME. I had heard Moscow in general and assumed SVO. My bad.
30 MAH4546 : OneWorld mainly uses DME, hence they are looking at DME. Finnair, IIRC, will soon be the only one at SVO.
31 Jacobin777 : ....ORD-DXB possibly? How about USofA-BOM....I think that might make sense.....ORD-HKG I think would make sense also, especially given that HKG is One
32 ConcordeBoy : ...and not ABJ? Based on ___?
33 ElmoTheHobo : Miami - Lagos - Johannesburg is my bet. It'll be a license to print money. This slot will go to one of the routes they're moving to Gatwick, correct?
34 MAH4546 : I think AA acquired two slots, one from Gulf Air and one from Luxair, for the new DFW/RDU-LHR slots. They are also looking for a third slot to start
35 SABE : Thanks for the info!
36 Iwannagothere : If these Afircan markets would be so lucrative, why has it taken so long for a U.S. airline to take the plunge. Has DL's route been doing well? Why ha
37 ElmoTheHobo : Africa has been the domain of European and African carriers, US carriers have left their African services up to their European partners. It has only
38 Jacobin777 : ...EK started JFK-DXB in summer of 2004, when I flew on the route a few weeks into its commencement, their A345 was only 1/2 full...less than 2 1/2 y
39 N353SK : There's been quite a hole in that area since the retirement of the F100 Is that doable with a 767?
40 MAH4546 : Elmo summed it up very well. In addition, the market for USA-Africa is still a very developing market that is nowhere near reaching maturity. It is g
41 LTU932 : According to the Great Circle Mapper, the MIA-LOS segment may be a tad long at 4893 nm still air range, but still doable for a 767.
42 MAH4546 : Entirely doable. Delta will be using 763s on Atlanta-Lagos, which is 200mi longer.
43 QQflyboy : Yes, however, I found it interesting they used this cancellation to show where they're getting a/c from to operate JFK-STN. All AA LHR flights are op
44 Jacobin777 : North American Airlines currently flies JFK-LOS 3x/weekly (Sun/Wed/Fri) which is 4562nm* (MIA-LOS is 4893nm*) IIRC, SU used to fly LAX-SVO (or was it
45 MSYtristar : I'm surprised those nonstops even went away. My folks used to do MSY-MIA-ANU almost yearly and those 727's were packed to the gills every time. I ser
46 QQflyboy : The legs of the 763ER are often longer than most would think. AA has flown SJC-CDG 5,703 miles, and still flies JFK-EZE 5,282 miles and soon will fly
47 Post contains links QQflyboy : Very true. However, the RDU market is unique in that you have North American and global headquarters for many, many companies in RTP. AA's agreement
48 Access-Air : Sorry, But I will agree to disagree with you because if they wanted to, they could have used STL to be an overflow to the rediculous amounts of fligh
49 Albird87 : Well I guess that DME would be a 763 but i expect NCE to be a 757... JFK should be one of AA's main Europe Destinations with flights to all over Euro
50 ElmoTheHobo : American is going to have a hard time finding used 767-300s meeting their criteria (GE powered ER models), though their partner Qantas won't be flyin
51 ERJ170 : Actually, RTRP (Research Triangle Regional Partnership) has already started getting the subsidies for FRA and CDG flights. They, IIRC, are well on th
52 ElmoTheHobo : American abandons BOS-CDG in favor of RDU-CDG?
53 ERJ170 : Hahahaha.. heck no!
54 ConcordeBoy : Both of your questions could be rather easily addressed if you actually stopped ranting long enough to contemplate the simple question of "why?". Why?
55 Post contains images QQflyboy : That is what Great Circle Mapper says, but AA says 5,703. That is the number of miles one would earn, at any rate, and if you tried to short AAdvanta
56 N77014 : It is simply a reaction to the market. American companies have been slow to do business in Africa relative to their european, and now middle east and
57 ElmoTheHobo : Haha, I'd be one of them too. Thanks for that. US carriers are clearly not reacting to the market, which is why European carriers are making a killin
58 Post contains images MoMan : AA was able to get the rates down to an acceptable range, but in exchanging the F100 aircraft they required Boeing to not lease them to a potential c
59 ConcordeBoy : That statement is completely anecdotal as it assumes the lack of artificial (e.g.: legislative, infrastructural, mechanical, etc) barriers to entry/s
60 ERJ170 : I'm not sure I agree with this. I think it has more to do with Geography than interest. It is much easier to get to Africa from Europe and Asia than
61 MoMan : I read that in a reputable report somewhere - I do not recall where, and as such it should be taken with a grain of salt. It does correlate well with
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