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What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?  
User currently offlineWatewate From Canada, joined Nov 2000, 2284 posts, RR: 1
Posted (13 years 8 months 9 hours ago) and read 4014 times:

Any ideas? Of course this is IF all those speculated deals go through. Which one will be the odd one out?

59 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineTrvlr From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 4430 posts, RR: 21
Reply 1, posted (13 years 8 months 9 hours ago) and read 3752 times:

I feel Alaska may be the next target, and then MAYBE America West. Just minor speculation, but I think Dubya will let NW/CO jointly buy Alaska, and DL may have to take up America West, or fend for themselves (which I wouldn't be suprised if they could do).

Aaron G.



User currently offlineWanderlust From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 39 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (13 years 8 months 8 hours ago) and read 3726 times:

Yep...I'd be willing to bet that AS (Alaska) is the next carrier to be bought out (or at least given a serious offer to).

Who knows who will do the buying though: Northwest? Continental? Delta?

Man, this merger stuff is getting scary...


User currently offlineFlyf15 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (13 years 8 months 8 hours ago) and read 3718 times:

Anybody else think Frontier would be quite an attractive target for Continental?

User currently offlineThomacf From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 542 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (13 years 8 months 7 hours ago) and read 3696 times:

I think Frontier could be attractive for CO. Maybe Denver could become a hub once again for them.

User currently offlineILUV767 From United States of America, joined May 2000, 3141 posts, RR: 8
Reply 5, posted (13 years 8 months 7 hours ago) and read 3682 times:

I think that CO will go for AWA and Delta will go for Alaska...or the other way around. Either way, each provides a west coast hub, so they are both worth it.

On a side note...how about a National and Jet Blue merger? Hubs would be out of LAS and JFK. Operate both the 757 and A320. That would make a great little airline woudnt it?


User currently offlineTWAneedsNOhelp From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (13 years 8 months 6 hours ago) and read 3673 times:

Yer dreaming!! JetBlue and National? JetBlue has no desire to make acquisitions, add new a/c types, or change their business plan substantially. Doesn't help that National is in Chpt 11 bankruptcy proceedings!

CO and HP just recently completed their disentanglement when Franke bought CO's interest in the PHX based carrier. Keep current on the news man!!

DL and AS.....reasonably possible.


User currently offlineSteman From Germany, joined Aug 2000, 1382 posts, RR: 7
Reply 7, posted (13 years 8 months 5 hours ago) and read 3651 times:

Hello guys,
you are all talking about Big Carriers taking over smaller domestic carrier.
Anyway I would like to know your opinion about possible mergers between majors.
I mean, after UA/US and AA/TW what other mergers/take over could we see.

I thought about a merger between CO and NW or Delta taking over CO.
I think an alliance between DL and CO would be very interesting even for ailrines in Europe like Air France and Alitalia which both have agreements with one of them

Ciao

Stefano


User currently offlineA330_DTW From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 371 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (13 years 8 months ago) and read 3627 times:

Hey TWA, What's up with your username? Gonna change that now that TWA NEEDS some help?

User currently offlineBostonBeau From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 463 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (13 years 8 months ago) and read 3622 times:

I thought NW already owned a controlling interest in CO? I just finished re-reading Gordon Bethune's book "From Worst to First" about CO. Have things changed??

User currently offlineDCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4499 posts, RR: 33
Reply 10, posted (13 years 8 months ago) and read 3615 times:

Russ, I'm sorry to see it happen...like you I really thought TWA was going to pull through.

NW and CO are in the weakest position if the four-airline square dance transaction proposed by AA goes through. I'll need to check numbers at the DOT site but DL would still be enormous and would likely not need to make a big acquisition simply to remain competitive.

NW and CO will have to go shopping if they want to gain mass, since DOJ just canned NW's attempt to buy control of CO. Although CO and HP just disentangled as Russ noted, the lay of the land has just changed considerably and they may want to rethink their situation.

HP has just become very valuable in the new situation, despite weak management, and we may see an NW-CO bidding fight over them. HP's airbus-heavy fleet would fit NW's better (tho don't know engine compatibility--anyone?) but HP would be a perfect region fit for either carrier.

The loser of the HP bidding fight will likely go for Alaska/ Horizon.

Jim



Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
User currently offlineNwa747-400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1337 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 3578 times:

NW/Co are actually in the strongest posistion because people are almost seeming afraid of these giant airlines who won't care at all about the passengers, will charge the highest fares we have ever seen, and be so large that it is hard to control reliability.

NW/CO remaining seperate but in a deep alliance will work best for the passengers and the bottom lines of both airlines.

I think NW will go for either AS or HP. I would rather HP because of the fleet similatrites, but the 737s would probably get canned.

All I can say is LONG LIVE THE RED TAILS!!!!!!!and at least now there is no immenent threat of a NW buyout by AA or someone else!!


User currently offlineUs330 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 3871 posts, RR: 14
Reply 12, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 3549 times:

Actually, Alaska has long been rumored to be a takeover target by AA, and this would make it more competitive with UA on the west coast.

User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 13, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3519 times:
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There's no way whatsoever that AA would go after AS now - they're already looking at some DoJ problems in the Carribean, not to mention upcoming labor problems and the existing conundrum of integrating ALPA staff (TWA) and APA staff (AA).

Remember the last time that AA went and played with seniority? That was a bloody mess, and those were even the same union!

I think that if anyone gets AS at this point, it would be DL, or potentially NW (but DL would be a better fit).


By the way - anyone know what NW's financial position is? Are they in the position to make acquisitions right now?


User currently offlineAzjubilee From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 3909 posts, RR: 27
Reply 14, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 3505 times:

I, like another poster think CO and NW are in the best position in this mess. The whole point of the Co/NW alliance was to save CO and their employees from an impending take over by DL. The deal NW proposed (this is back in 1998 I think) would save all of Co, as opposed to the Dl full merger which would have seen the CLE hub and a lot of employees go down the toilet. Now that CO is free and clear of any problems, CO has repurchased most of the stock NW took in them. They've also come up with an agreement that NW has a bit of a say in any takeover proposals by another airline... so the issue of DL taking over CO again, is unfounded. NW won't let it happen. Now, both Co and NW have deals with HP for codesharing and NW extensively codeshares with AS and Horizon. A joint aquisition of HP by NW and CO could be rather interesting. Though I don't know if NW is into any more full mergers, rather opting for "virtual mergers." Although HP is having quite a few problems and a virtual merger would still allow those problems to continue. Remember NW has tons of cash... but a large a/c order is soon to be announced. This is exciting, however one should just speak with the facts and not speculate too much!

AZJ


User currently offlineWatewate From Canada, joined Nov 2000, 2284 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 3492 times:

Say NW were to buy AS or even HP. That leaves DL and CO with AS or HP to fight over. Doesn't it make sense for the two carriers to merge? I know Bethune punked off DL years ago, but if he wants to stay competitive with mega United and American, he'll have to make some sort of move. I guess the same goes for Delta. Just picture the Pacific route map- CO's Guam hub and Delta's possibility at new Inchon airport.

Just my 2c


User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8005 posts, RR: 5
Reply 16, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 3491 times:

I personally think in terms of AS, HP and F9, here's what will soon happen:

1. AS will likely go to DL. It gives DL a MAJOR West Coast presence, something that DL really needs. That will allow DL to leverage LAX, SFO, PDX and SEA to flights to Asia.

2. HP will likely go to NW. HP and NW have very strong fleet commality, and this will give NW a presence in the Southwestern USA, something that NW has not been strong on in the past.

3. F9 will likely go to CO. This gives CO a strong US West Coast presence, and CO instantly becomes a major competitor against UA in DEN.

Meanwhile, WN will go its merry own way with its successfull short-hop flights.  


User currently offlineBaec777xx From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 3473 times:

Why did you leave out United Airlines.....??

baec777xx  


User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 18, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3453 times:
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RayChuang, CO-F9 does make sense, as you stated. It still won't bring CO anywhere near UA, though. Consider this:

In October 2000, these were the passenger totals for each airline in DEN (total traffic is 3,242,461):
Frontier ... 260,751
Continental ... 77,134
F9+CO ... 337,885

United ... 1,992,886 (Mainline only)
AWAC ... 200,603 (United Express)
Great Lks ... 68,601 (United Express)
Skywest ... 5,234 (United Express)
United Total ... 2,267,324

It gets even worse if you look at Star carriers in general -- that comes to 2,294,900. Star controlled 70.8% of pax.

A combined F9/CO would still only have 10.4% market share.

That's the bad news.

The good news is this:
- F9 flies to 17 of the top 25 markets from DEN including US/UA strongholds Chicago, San Francisco and New York-LGA, and AA/TW strongholds Chicago, Dallas, New York-LGA, and Washington-DCA
- There is no overlap with CO (no F9 flights to IAH/CLE/EWR)
- There are plenty of OnePass holders in DEN from when CO was there before, in the 80s/early 90s, that would love to use their miles
- F9 is popular with locals, and if they could be convinced that CO would offer comparable customer service, it would be a good fit
- Combined market share has increase since last year, with Oct99 combined market share standing at 8.14%.
- No Airbii have been delivered yet (they will be by summer - but on a lease from GECAS), so CO would be able to get out of that order possibly.

They could get F9 for not a lot of money. F9's total market cap is $567 million. Even a 50% premium, which would be high IMHO, would put it at $1B.

CO should look at this... this would be a good thing. They need to move west.


User currently offlineDeltaSFO From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 2488 posts, RR: 22
Reply 19, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3441 times:

Delta will need to pick up Alaska FAST in order to keep the Big Three from becoming the Big Two.

This will give us excellent West Coast presence and will immediately solve the problem of staging feeder flights for trans-Pacific flights from LAX/SFO/PDX/SEA/whichever of these becomes our Pacific Gateway.

Let me say.... I know a lot of you are saying DL really got caught with their pants down.... but I have a funny feeling that we've got something or other up our sleeve. Mr. Mullin is a very shrewd businessman, and he's not the type to let AA and UA pass him by.

DeltaSFO



It's a new day. Every moment matters. Now, more than ever.
User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 20, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3427 times:
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Right on, DeltaSFO - AS+DL would be great --- they'd still be 2Mil RPMs or so short of AA/TW and more than that for US/UA, but they would be a major contender out west.

Now, please, DeltaSFO: please make sure that your employer (I assume you work for them) doesn't screw up their west coast presence again. I love DL, and I'm from Oregon, and they really blew it with PDX and SLC...

I know that you know Leo and pals personally, right?  


User currently offlineDeltaSFO From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 2488 posts, RR: 22
Reply 21, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3420 times:

I'll tell Leo tonight when he comes over for dinner. LOL

DeltaSFO



It's a new day. Every moment matters. Now, more than ever.
User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 22, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3409 times:
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While you're at it, DeltaSFO, beg Leo to not go after America West...

User currently offlineQantasA330 From Iraq, joined Dec 2000, 306 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3408 times:

He guys,
It would be SUCH a SAD sight to see Frontier go, but you are right abot CO being a good fit. Frontier brings SOOOOO much life to KDEN, and they were DOING SO WELL!

Delta's Fleet mixs VERY VERY NICELY WITH CO's -
Think:777's
762's
764's
737NG's
MD-Machines
no more L10 or D10 problems - (retired)
(and then theres the regionals)
EMB-135/145's
etc.
You get my point.

What do ya think?

Kindest Regards,
QantasA330


User currently offlineQantasA330 From Iraq, joined Dec 2000, 306 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (13 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3399 times:

He guys,
It would be SUCH a SAD sight to see Frontier go, but you are right about CO being a good fit. Frontier brings SOOOOO much life to KDEN, and they were DOING SO WELL!

Delta's Fleet mixs VERY VERY NICELY WITH CO's -
Think:777's
762's
764's
737NG's
MD-Machines
no more L10 or D10 problems - (retired)
(and then theres the regionals)
EMB-135/145's
etc.
You get my point.

What do ya think?

Kindest Regards,
QantasA330


25 Flashmeister : While DL+CO fleet would be good, DL+CO hubs would be a disaster: CVG+CLE DFW+IAH JFK+EWR ATL SLC Remember, to close hubs, it takes money too...
26 Krisair747 : A CO and DL merger would be great for both carriers. Passengers are fed up with the lack of consistent service from AA and UA, while CO is giving pass
27 DeltaSFO : Yes, DL's fleet and Co's fleet together are a beautiful thing.... I suppose we could always do a leveraged buy-out, but those things are always messy,
28 FlyPNS1 : As for DL being last in the merger mania, thats not really anything new. DL has a history of taking their time when it comes to big changes in the ind
29 Cba : I think that CO should buy frontier. A CO/DL merger, although it seems great, probably won't happen. But if it did, the hub situation would look like
30 DeltaSFO : Maybe DL should buy Skywest outright and pull the feed right out from under UA at SFO and LAX. Now that would make my day. Cba, I disagree with you on
31 Cba : I doubt that CO will want to give up EWR. They operate tons of flights from their, not only domestic, but international too. DL doesn't that large of
32 Ishky15 : I read in an articale a while back that if Delta went for Continental, as a gesture to the DoJ, they would give up their gates at JFK. I think that if
33 Azjubilee : For you people that are waiting for a DL/CO merger, don't hold your breath. You've forgotton one large red tailed problem. NW and CO have extended the
34 DeltaSFO : Relax Azjubillee. I never said that DL and CO are going to merge or even that it is likely. Just discussing the realm of possibility, that's all. Delt
35 Cba : Azjubilee, I know that CO won't join Skyteam, I'm just saying that it would be nice if they did, as Air France and Continental are my favorite airline
36 Post contains images Airnondo : DL with AS... That would make DL regret pulling their PDX Asian flights, hey maybe even convince them to reinstate them. That would be nice to see, it
37 Notdownnlocked : How about a DL/CO/NW/AS codeshare or better yet a DL buyout of the three. Imagine the possibilities with DL flying 400 flights each day from ATL-NYC/M
38 Alexinwa : My prediction: Delta to takeover/buy Alaska The route system fits well with Delta's. It would give Delta a major presence on the west coast which they
39 BNE : With all the merger mania, it would be a ideal opportunity for Delta and Northwest to buy. If all the mergers go through. Delta should look at buying
40 Nwa747-400 : NW will most likely (if anything) buy Alaskan and Horizon as they already have extensive codehares on their flights. Plus, NW needs a bigger operation
41 Post contains images RayChuang : NW will NEVER buy AS!! The reason is very simple: that would give NW too much control of the slots at PDX and SEA. Even the DoJ under "Dubya" would ne
42 Azjubilee : NW is NOT that big in SEA and PDX. They do hub flying out of PDX to only MSP and DTW and out of SEA only fly to HNL, NRT, KIX, AMS, MSP, MEM and DTW.
43 DeltaSFO : NW won't buy AS. I'm sure Delta realizes the need for an AS merger if it intends to stay competitive. Knowing that, I think they will pick AS up at al
44 Awaramper : I can't really see CO going after HP. We just bought back the last of the shares that CO had on us. CO management knows first hand how screwed up Bill
45 TWA : Heres what I think would be good for Delta: Delta to acquire America West. That would solve Delta's problem in the west with Hubs in LAX & PHX. One bi
46 RyeFly : I really don't think that CO,DL and NW need to buy anyone. They are respectable sizes already and if they are able to offer better performace over AA
47 Cba : The best idea for CO/NW: 1. A CO/Frontier Merger 2. A NW/America West Merger 3. A triple NW/KLM/CO alliance
48 Krisair747 : DeltaSFO, Co does realize how important JFK is to DL. Just as it is important to CO as we have started JFK-CLE and JFK-IAH. If AA gets TWa's slots in
49 Krisair747 : Hello, So you know, CO brought all shares back from NW! We are our own Company which can make our own choises! We do have a codeshare with NW till abo
50 Ishky15 : When Continental Express first launched Cleveland-JFK last year, they stated that the service would be increased in 2000. Do you have any information
51 Azjubilee : I never said that NW was going to make any choices for CO. I know that CO has purchased MOST of the shares back from NW. If you know so much about you
52 TWAneedsNOhelp : A330_DTW: Open my profile and click on Respected User "TWAneedsHELP", this should clear it up for you. Jim: Thanks, its for the best though, AA, DL, a
53 NY-JFK-LGA : Delta Air Lines, Continental Airlines & JetBlue Airways, unbeatable, unequaled, and unstoppable.
54 Krisair747 : CO only plans to have 2 ERJ-135 departures from JFK to CLE. We gave up a third jfkcle to get the JFKIAH routes!
55 Krisair747 : OK, So you know for future reference, Continental has bought back ALL shares back from NW. In fact, January 15th Co employees are celebrating our INDE
56 Ceilidh : Delta is not in a position to make any acquisitions at the moment - it has barely enough cash to keep it afloat for a month if a full strike is called
57 SteveT : http://www.nwa.com/corpinfo/newsc/2000/pr111620000494.html This URL is a Northwest press release about the agreement between Continental and Northwest
58 DeltaSFO : Delta is not in a position to make any acquisitions at the moment - it has barely enough cash to keep it afloat for a month if a full strike is called
59 Ceilidh : DeltaSFO - you have already been proven wrong on this - and many other - issues. The 33 day figure comes from the DOT. The moment that DALPA goes on s
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