Trvlr From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 4430 posts, RR: 22 Reply 1, posted (12 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3175 times:
I feel Alaska may be the next target, and then MAYBE America West. Just minor speculation, but I think Dubya will let NW/CO jointly buy Alaska, and DL may have to take up America West, or fend for themselves (which I wouldn't be suprised if they could do).
TWAneedsNOhelp From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 6, posted (12 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 3096 times:
Yer dreaming!! JetBlue and National? JetBlue has no desire to make acquisitions, add new a/c types, or change their business plan substantially. Doesn't help that National is in Chpt 11 bankruptcy proceedings!
CO and HP just recently completed their disentanglement when Franke bought CO's interest in the PHX based carrier. Keep current on the news man!!
Steman From Germany, joined Aug 2000, 1300 posts, RR: 8 Reply 7, posted (12 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 3074 times:
you are all talking about Big Carriers taking over smaller domestic carrier.
Anyway I would like to know your opinion about possible mergers between majors.
I mean, after UA/US and AA/TW what other mergers/take over could we see.
I thought about a merger between CO and NW or Delta taking over CO.
I think an alliance between DL and CO would be very interesting even for ailrines in Europe like Air France and Alitalia which both have agreements with one of them
DCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4419 posts, RR: 35 Reply 10, posted (12 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 3038 times:
Russ, I'm sorry to see it happen...like you I really thought TWA was going to pull through.
NW and CO are in the weakest position if the four-airline square dance transaction proposed by AA goes through. I'll need to check numbers at the DOT site but DL would still be enormous and would likely not need to make a big acquisition simply to remain competitive.
NW and CO will have to go shopping if they want to gain mass, since DOJ just canned NW's attempt to buy control of CO. Although CO and HP just disentangled as Russ noted, the lay of the land has just changed considerably and they may want to rethink their situation.
HP has just become very valuable in the new situation, despite weak management, and we may see an NW-CO bidding fight over them. HP's airbus-heavy fleet would fit NW's better (tho don't know engine compatibility--anyone?) but HP would be a perfect region fit for either carrier.
The loser of the HP bidding fight will likely go for Alaska/ Horizon.
Nwa747-400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1337 posts, RR: 5 Reply 11, posted (12 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3001 times:
NW/Co are actually in the strongest posistion because people are almost seeming afraid of these giant airlines who won't care at all about the passengers, will charge the highest fares we have ever seen, and be so large that it is hard to control reliability.
NW/CO remaining seperate but in a deep alliance will work best for the passengers and the bottom lines of both airlines.
I think NW will go for either AS or HP. I would rather HP because of the fleet similatrites, but the 737s would probably get canned.
All I can say is LONG LIVE THE RED TAILS!!!!!!!and at least now there is no immenent threat of a NW buyout by AA or someone else!!
Flashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2892 posts, RR: 7 Reply 13, posted (12 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 2942 times:
There's no way whatsoever that AA would go after AS now - they're already looking at some DoJ problems in the Carribean, not to mention upcoming labor problems and the existing conundrum of integrating ALPA staff (TWA) and APA staff (AA).
Remember the last time that AA went and played with seniority? That was a bloody mess, and those were even the same union!
I think that if anyone gets AS at this point, it would be DL, or potentially NW (but DL would be a better fit).
By the way - anyone know what NW's financial position is? Are they in the position to make acquisitions right now?
Azjubilee From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 3640 posts, RR: 29 Reply 14, posted (12 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 2928 times:
I, like another poster think CO and NW are in the best position in this mess. The whole point of the Co/NW alliance was to save CO and their employees from an impending take over by DL. The deal NW proposed (this is back in 1998 I think) would save all of Co, as opposed to the Dl full merger which would have seen the CLE hub and a lot of employees go down the toilet. Now that CO is free and clear of any problems, CO has repurchased most of the stock NW took in them. They've also come up with an agreement that NW has a bit of a say in any takeover proposals by another airline... so the issue of DL taking over CO again, is unfounded. NW won't let it happen. Now, both Co and NW have deals with HP for codesharing and NW extensively codeshares with AS and Horizon. A joint aquisition of HP by NW and CO could be rather interesting. Though I don't know if NW is into any more full mergers, rather opting for "virtual mergers." Although HP is having quite a few problems and a virtual merger would still allow those problems to continue. Remember NW has tons of cash... but a large a/c order is soon to be announced. This is exciting, however one should just speak with the facts and not speculate too much!
Watewate From Canada, joined Nov 2000, 2284 posts, RR: 2 Reply 15, posted (12 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 2915 times:
Say NW were to buy AS or even HP. That leaves DL and CO with AS or HP to fight over. Doesn't it make sense for the two carriers to merge? I know Bethune punked off DL years ago, but if he wants to stay competitive with mega United and American, he'll have to make some sort of move. I guess the same goes for Delta. Just picture the Pacific route map- CO's Guam hub and Delta's possibility at new Inchon airport.
Flashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2892 posts, RR: 7 Reply 18, posted (12 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 2876 times:
RayChuang, CO-F9 does make sense, as you stated. It still won't bring CO anywhere near UA, though. Consider this:
In October 2000, these were the passenger totals for each airline in DEN (total traffic is 3,242,461):
Frontier ... 260,751
Continental ... 77,134
F9+CO ... 337,885
United ... 1,992,886 (Mainline only)
AWAC ... 200,603 (United Express)
Great Lks ... 68,601 (United Express)
Skywest ... 5,234 (United Express)
United Total ... 2,267,324
It gets even worse if you look at Star carriers in general -- that comes to 2,294,900. Star controlled 70.8% of pax.
A combined F9/CO would still only have 10.4% market share.
That's the bad news.
The good news is this:
- F9 flies to 17 of the top 25 markets from DEN including US/UA strongholds Chicago, San Francisco and New York-LGA, and AA/TW strongholds Chicago, Dallas, New York-LGA, and Washington-DCA
- There is no overlap with CO (no F9 flights to IAH/CLE/EWR)
- There are plenty of OnePass holders in DEN from when CO was there before, in the 80s/early 90s, that would love to use their miles
- F9 is popular with locals, and if they could be convinced that CO would offer comparable customer service, it would be a good fit
- Combined market share has increase since last year, with Oct99 combined market share standing at 8.14%.
- No Airbii have been delivered yet (they will be by summer - but on a lease from GECAS), so CO would be able to get out of that order possibly.
They could get F9 for not a lot of money. F9's total market cap is $567 million. Even a 50% premium, which would be high IMHO, would put it at $1B.
CO should look at this... this would be a good thing. They need to move west.
DeltaSFO From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 2488 posts, RR: 23 Reply 19, posted (12 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 2864 times:
Delta will need to pick up Alaska FAST in order to keep the Big Three from becoming the Big Two.
This will give us excellent West Coast presence and will immediately solve the problem of staging feeder flights for trans-Pacific flights from LAX/SFO/PDX/SEA/whichever of these becomes our Pacific Gateway.
Let me say.... I know a lot of you are saying DL really got caught with their pants down.... but I have a funny feeling that we've got something or other up our sleeve. Mr. Mullin is a very shrewd businessman, and he's not the type to let AA and UA pass him by.
It's a new day. Every moment matters. Now, more than ever.
Flashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2892 posts, RR: 7 Reply 20, posted (12 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 2850 times:
Right on, DeltaSFO - AS+DL would be great --- they'd still be 2Mil RPMs or so short of AA/TW and more than that for US/UA, but they would be a major contender out west.
Now, please, DeltaSFO: please make sure that your employer (I assume you work for them) doesn't screw up their west coast presence again. I love DL, and I'm from Oregon, and they really blew it with PDX and SLC...
I know that you know Leo and pals personally, right?