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Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?  
User currently offlineCptRegionalJet From Germany, joined Oct 2007, 123 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 5912 times:

Hello everybody.This is my first post on A-net 
I just checked the first pictures of the new Sukhoi Superjet.It's a good looking plane and the similarity to the Do728 design is evident.
I also read about it that it features many "western style" avionics and systems.The price of it is nearly unbeatable and a big plus in today's price conscious market.Just out of interst,how do you rate it's chances on the worldwide market?

[Edited 2007-10-08 08:26:58]

[Edited 2007-10-08 08:28:47]

31 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDYflyer From Norway, joined May 2006, 676 posts, RR: 15
Reply 1, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 5912 times:

Quoting CptRegionalJet (Thread starter):
Hello everybody.This is my first post on A-net 

Welcome!

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 1):
looking back Russian aviation's quality of construction and flight ability have something in question

Actually the build quality is very good. They are usually build "like a tank". The problem has been more on the maintenance and operation part. The reason for western airlines not to buy these planes has often been high fuel-consumption and lack of spare-parts and support.

I think the Superjet might have a chance in the western market. The Russians have learned, and have had western airlines in the user-forum when they designed this plane. As you mentions it has western engines, and has an Italian partner for the support of western airlines. Sukhoi is still having to work hard to get that first big western order, but if it then proves successful many more orders might follow. I think the Superjet has the best chance ever for a plane built in the former Soviet to succeed in the west.



Life is like a book. If you don't travel, you only read one page.
User currently offlineRbgso From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 587 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 5912 times:

I know that Russian manufacturing has come a long way. The market perception always takes longer, in some case very much longer, to change.

Tha being said, given the growth in low cost carriers around the world, I wouldn't be surprised if some European or Asian carrier (or start-up, for that matter) gives this plane a shot. If they get a fantastic deal and the operating economics work, why not?.

I do wish them well, but I do suspect it will be a long time before any Russian civilian aircraft shows up in a North American fleet.


User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5913 times:

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 5):
Superjet100=Do728

A bit hard to compare the Superjet 100 to a plane that never got past the mockup stage. The Embraer E-Jets family is a more appropriate comparison.

If the Superjet 100 makes it into the fleet of a major European airline (which is a very distinct possibility), it may have a chance in the Western world. Boeing wouldn't have gotten involved in it if they didn't think the Western market would be interested in it. I think Boeing will definitely try to market it to some of their own customers as well.

If the backlog for E-Jets gets deep enough, and the CSeries keeps getting delayed past 2013, that could work to the advantage of Sukhoi. The Superjet 100 family is in the same pax range as the E-Jets, but really only competes with the proposed C-110, as due to Boeing's involvement, the Superjet 100 will not exceed a capacity of 110 pax.


User currently offlinePilotpip From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 3145 posts, RR: 11
Reply 4, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5913 times:

The jet has a chance if it can compete economically with the others in the market. However it's rare that more than two manufacturers have had comparable designs at the same time that have done well. In the past it was MDD and Boeing with Lockheed, Fokker and others trying to join the fun. Today it's Boeing and Airbus building the big guys, with Bombardier and Embraer owning the smaller segment. It's going to be very difficult for Sukhoi.


DMI
User currently offlineFRNT787 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1319 posts, RR: 15
Reply 5, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 5913 times:

Quoting DYflyer (Reply 2):
I think the Superjet has the best chance ever for a plane built in the former Soviet to succeed in the west.

True, right now alot of airlines around the world are looking to replacing jets of this size category, but Sukhoi will have to market the plane very heavily.

Is Boeing's involvement simply that of an Advisor?



"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
User currently offlineOldeuropean From Germany, joined May 2005, 2075 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 5913 times:

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 5):
IL96=A340

The IL96 is a derivative of the IL86, which is much older (announced 1971, first flight 1976!) than the A340.

Axel



Wer nichts weiss muss alles glauben
User currently offlineORDagent From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 823 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 5913 times:

IIRC Boeing is helping in post sales support and maintenance networks for the aircraft. This is vital as the airline needs to be reassured that once the aircraft is purchased proper support post purchase is vital. IMHO this aircraft has the best chance of breaking into the global market of any Russian aircraft.

I hope it works! Despite the constant accusations of "copycat" designs they former USSR had a massive R&D effort. Lets not forget that the reason for the similarities was due to the fact that the airliners were needed for similar missions.


User currently offlineMrocktor From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1668 posts, RR: 50
Reply 8, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 5913 times:

Quoting DYflyer (Reply 2):
I think the Superjet might have a chance in the western market.

This may very well be true.

I predict lots of fun at the WTO. With Russia's recent backslide into the bad days of authoritarian government, things could get "interesting".


User currently offlinePavlovsDog From Norway, joined Sep 2005, 657 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 5913 times:

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 5):
TU154 =B727

Why not use the Trident as a comparison. It flew a year before the Boeing. So it should be Trident=B727=Tu-154

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 5):
IL96=A340

The IL-96 is a stretched and modernized design based on the IL-86 which first flew in 1980 a full 11 years before the 340.

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 5):
Superjet100=Do728

Last time I checked the SuperJet is the first design to come to market with a 5 abreast fuselage and engines under the wings. Others (Shorts for example and Bombaridier with the C-series) have tried but failed to make it to market with a similar product. If the C-Series comes to market is it a copy of the SuperJet?

Don't forget the Russians were the first out in space. Is the entire American (and subsequent Chinese and European space efforts) mere copies of the Soviets?


User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7688 posts, RR: 21
Reply 10, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 5913 times:
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Quoting Oldeuropean (Reply 11):
The IL96 is a derivative of the IL86, which is much older (announced 1971, first flight 1976!) than the A340.

Forget facts and logic, it's no use. You'll never get of the facile claims of Russian copying banded around so freely just because some aircraft happen to share a similar engine configuration or size.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 7987 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 5913 times:

I think with Sukhoi now using more or less Western-style production techniques, the Superjet 100 could actually be a major success, especially in the Third World where local authorities have finally realized that flying older planes aren't safe anymore and are now demanding new-build planes. (This is especially true in Africa, where in the past 3-4 years there has been a serious crackdown on flying older planes.)

User currently offlineRbgso From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 587 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 5913 times:

What is the "list" price of this plane vs. the list of the other RJs out there? I know, nobody pays list, but I am curious.

User currently offlineTomB From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 79 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 5885 times:

The E-190AR and the SSJ100-95LR have many similar design characterisitics. Both are low wing regional aircraft with medium bypass turbofan engines mounted beneath the wing. Both are designed to carry 98 passengers at a cruise speed of Mach .78 with a maximum range of 4260-4420 kms. Both offer similar passenger comfort with 20"+/- aisles and seats that are 18.3"+/- wide.

The E-190AR has four abreast seating with a long, thin fuselage and the SSJ has five abreast seating with a shorter, wider fuseleage.

The E-190 was certified in the 3rd Quarter of 2005 while the SSJ will probably be certified in 4Q 2008.

The SSJ claims several advantages over the E-190AR:
1. The Maximum Takeoff Weight will be 11.4% lighter on the SSJ (45,880 kg vs. 51,800 kg)
2. The fuel burn and operating costs will be about 10% less than the E-190AR.
3. The current list price of the SSJ, $27.8 million, is about 18% less than the E-190AR

Alenia of Italy has purchased a 25% participation in the Superjet program giving the SSJ program more creditability in the western markets.

I have two questions for the A Netters:
1. Do you think the SSJ program will be able to maintain the above operating and cost advantages as they progress through flight testing and certification?
2. Although the SSJ's acceptance in the Russian market is assured, how do you think the SSJ will sell in the West European and North American markets?

Tom B


User currently offlineLTU932 From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 13864 posts, RR: 50
Reply 14, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 5885 times:

Quoting Oldeuropean (Reply 6):
The IL96 is a derivative of the IL86, which is much older (announced 1971, first flight 1976!) than the A340.

Well, since the A340 is a derivative of sorts of the original A300, the fact that the IL-86/96 has some resemblance to the A340 isn't that far fetched.

Regarding the Sukhoi Superjet, I believe it has potential in Europe as well. SK is said to be considering the SSJ as a replacement for their Dash-8Q400s, and a smaller European airline has already ordered the SSJ as well.


User currently offlineCptRegionalJet From Germany, joined Oct 2007, 123 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5734 times:

Quoting TomB (Reply 13):
2. Although the SSJ's acceptance in the Russian market is assured, how do you think the SSJ will sell in the West European and North American markets?

With western companies involved I think it will have its fair chance.Last I heard it was even considered by LH as an alternative.


User currently offlineTraveler_7 From Estonia, joined May 2000, 540 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 5734 times:

Quoting CptRegionalJet (Reply 15):
With western companies involved I think it will have its fair chance.Last I heard it was even considered by LH as an alternative.

Involvement of Boeing and some other western companies was mentioned many times. I still do not get where this
aircraft will undergo regular technical service? Would Boeing provide such service for North American customers?
Where such center/ centers will be in Europe? or it should fly to Komsomolsk-na-Amure? Reliable maintenance system would boost interest in this aircraft.

Do they plan any sales in Asia?


User currently offlineOV735 From Estonia, joined Jan 2004, 909 posts, RR: 3
Reply 17, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 5371 times:

I think that there are several obstacles in the way of the Superjet becoming a bestseller.

Firstly, as far as I know, it has no real global support or maintenance network. Russian/Soviet airliners have previously been used by only a handful of airlines on each continent. Since the engines bear a relation to GE it might be easier in that respect, but how about performing regular technical checks on the airframe?

Secondly, I have high doubts about quality. Given that it's built for maximum efficiency and operating costs, i.e. an environment not similar to the Soviet aircraft industry when due to military requirements reliability and ruggedness topped the priority list instead of efficiency. I think that in production aircraft we might come across the utter lack of quality and the results of the overall ladna-mentality that you may well notice left and right all across the former Soviet Union, and especially Russia.

Thirdly, and this is not less important. Public opinion. Why do airlines often prefer regional jets over turboprops, even when they are more expensive to operate? Because the customers prefer the RJs. I predict the same thing will happen with the Superjet. Western passengers, many of whom still possess the good old politically motivated perception that Soviet/Russian aircraft are inherently unsafe (you can come across this even in these forums), will choose an operator with Western technology, even if the ticket price is higher by a small margin.

Thus, in my opinion, the primary market for the Superjet will be the CIS area, with other operators still "friendly" to the Russian ideology, and hopefully also some non-politically motivated Western countries.

Regards,
OV735


User currently offlineDYflyer From Norway, joined May 2006, 676 posts, RR: 15
Reply 18, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 5258 times:

Quoting OV735 (Reply 17):
Firstly, as far as I know, it has no real global support or maintenance network.

Alenia will provide the support for European customers. I guess Boeing (or some partners) would provide support for customers on the American continent.

Quoting OV735 (Reply 17):
Thirdly, and this is not less important. Public opinion. Why do airlines often prefer regional jets over turboprops, even when they are more expensive to operate? Because the customers prefer the RJs.

I don´t know about this. Most PAX don´t know (or care) what plane they are on. They can´t tell an A320 from a B737, and have no idea where they are produced. As long as the plane don´t get a lot of bad press, and it seems modern and in good condition (to them) they will fly it. Comparing it to turboprop vs RJ isn´t right since most PAX are under the impression that the RJ is more modern and safer.



Life is like a book. If you don't travel, you only read one page.
User currently offlineOV735 From Estonia, joined Jan 2004, 909 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 5229 times:

Quoting DYflyer (Reply 18):
Alenia will provide the support for European customers. I guess Boeing (or some partners) would provide support for customers on the American continent.

Thanks for the correction, now I know better.

Quoting DYflyer (Reply 18):
Most PAX don´t know (or care) what plane they are on.



Quoting DYflyer (Reply 18):
Comparing it to turboprop vs RJ isn´t right since most PAX are under the impression that the RJ is more modern and safer.

It seems like there is a little contradiction here. Are you saying they don't care what they fly on despite they think that a jet is more modern and safe, or that they don't care what they fly on as long as it doesn't have propellers?

I would think, that at least in the present (perhaps it's different in 10-20 years), if a Western airline would start using a Russian built jet, it would be all over the media and would catch the eye of many a customer for the same airline. I might be wrong, but Western passengers often seem to consider Russian-built aircraft unsafe, and some journo with too much time on his hands might think the same way when he writes an article titled "X airline starts using Russian aircraft".

Some of the passengers would catch the news and, depending on their understanding of aviation safety and technologies, might decide to be careful when flying with the named airline.

But that's ofcourse only subjective speculation, nothing more.


User currently offlineSashA From Russia, joined May 1999, 861 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 5070 times:

Quoting OV735 (Reply 19):
I might be wrong, but Western passengers often seem to consider Russian-built aircraft unsafe, and some journo with too much time on his hands might think the same way when he writes an article titled "X airline starts using Russian aircraft".

I see where you're coming from. This may hold true nowadays still for some people. However I hope that there is also a good proportion of people who noticed that the recent accidents involving Russian build aircraft have the tendency of belonging to UN-blacklisted airlines in Africa where maintenance is poor to say the least and in the case with crashes in Russia - pilot error, was officially reported as causes. So, It is I hope becoming "out of fashion" these days to state that Russian built aircraft are inherently unsafe. Just look at Dash 8-400 consecutive incidents with the landing gear earlier in the autumn!

About the Superjet 100 I think that it lacks range to even be successful in Russia. Especially considering Russia's distances. There're quite a few mid-range routes served these days by Tu154Ms and Tu134A-3s, and flights often are 60% or 30% loaded. I bet the airlines would be more than happy to replace Tupolevs with the evidently more efficient Superjets, be it with fewer seats - more suitable for the routes anyway.

Add some range to it and try again...  

[Edited 2007-10-09 21:39:03]


An2/24/28,Yak42,Tu154/134,IL18/62/96,B737/757/767,A310/320/319,F100,BAe146,EMB-145,CRJ,A340-600,B747-400,A-330-300,A-340
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5405 posts, RR: 30
Reply 21, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 5070 times:

I think the Superjet's biggest obstacle to acceptance in the west is mostly political. The way that Putin is doing his best to put all industry under his thumb is what is really making the west nervous. I'm sure that they'll sell a few to airlines looking for a super bargain, (in the short term), but any business would have to be nuts to base their success on something coming out of Russia.

If Russia has few qualms about unilaterally squashing contracts with giants like BP and Shell, as well as cutting off the gas to Europe, I don't think they'll have any issues with screwing over a western airline.



What the...?
User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6120 posts, RR: 34
Reply 22, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 5072 times:

Of course, if MHI launches their 70- and 90-seat geared-fan RJ (with possible Boeing participation - see MHI thread) then forget about the SuperJet reaching North America.


Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineMrocktor From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1668 posts, RR: 50
Reply 23, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 4813 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 21):
business would have to be nuts to base their success on something coming out of Russia

Sad, considering what those people went through. But true.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 22):
if MHI launches their 70- and 90-seat geared-fan RJ

EIS is ten years from now, isn't it? If the RRJ actually gets FAA certified within a reasonable time frame, MRJ would not be a factor for a while.


User currently offlineParapente From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 1548 posts, RR: 10
Reply 24, posted (6 years 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 4761 times:

No chance at all when this comes out.

The MRJ is a 70-seat to 90-seat airliner.



P&W expects the GTF to reduce fuel burn by at least 12% compared to current high-bypass ratio turbines.


25 JoeCanuck : As long as Putin is acting like a Tsar, western companies will be very leary of relying on Russia for their economic survival. For example, if he's wi
26 RAFVC10 : Welcome onboard!!!!! Answering your post, my point of view is: - Sukhoi Superjet 100 has the same chances to win orders in the western market like it
27 DYflyer : The last one is correct. People will prefer a jet because they think it is more modern and safe. Apart from the type of propulsion, they have no idea
28 Planemaker : I was surprised that MHI is actually planning EIS of 2012... only 5 years from now. Which is substantial when, as reported in the press, the 787's en
29 RussianJet : I can't help but think that this oft-referred-to phenomenon is overstated on A.net. I've been on planes with people whose knowledge of aviation could
30 Post contains images Mrocktor : I wish I could short sell that
31 JAAlbert : I think it's a neat looking little airplane. I just googled it and read that it has avionics and engines and interiors from the US and European compan
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