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A380 Reliability - What To Expect?  
User currently offlineA380900 From France, joined Dec 2003, 1118 posts, RR: 1
Posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 7803 times:

A few question about the introduction of the A380 and the introduction of aircraft in general:

What is the expected reliability of a new type? What would be good, what would be worrisome? Airbus is said to have dispatched 20 people to Singapore to check on the plane. Can that last for long?

What types have had the most serious teething problems in the last thirty years? How long to they last?

Due to the ever changing configuration of the A380 until msn 26, should we expect much longer teething problems?

How long before a plane reache its long term dispatchability rate? How high can it be ?

Thank you to all the knowledgeable people who can shed some light on this.

14 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 7798 times:

I have read that the SIA pilots that have flown it are really impressed with the A380.

User currently offlineKFLLCFII From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3311 posts, RR: 30
Reply 2, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 7690 times:

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 1):
I have read that the SIA pilots that have flown it are really impressed with the A380.

What have the SIA maintenance folks said?



"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7590 times:

Quoting KFLLCFII (Reply 2):
Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 1):
I have read that the SIA pilots that have flown it are really impressed with the A380.

What have the SIA maintenance folks said?

Its really too early to know. Even though they have presumably been trained on the aircraft, we will have to wait until the aircraft enters revenue service to get a picture. It has however been tested more than any other airliner to date so I cant forsee many issues arising outside the usual [and expected] teething ones.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31440 posts, RR: 85
Reply 4, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7565 times:
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With all the time these birds have spent in the air during the past two years, I expect the airframes to be very reliable.

If anything breaks, it will likely be customer-sourced equipment (seats, IFE, galleys and lavs, etc.).


User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4376 posts, RR: 27
Reply 5, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7465 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
With all the time these birds have spent in the air during the past two years, I expect the airframes to be very reliable.

Indeed, I would think the dispatch reliability of the A380 will set a record for a new-in-service aircraft type.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
If anything breaks, it will likely be customer-sourced equipment (seats, IFE, galleys and lavs, etc.).

I would think even those things will be pretty reliable. The vendors have had ample time to tweak the equipment, albeit perhaps not in a real-world setting.

I'm going to guess that any reliability issues will stem from ground maintenance crews either creating dispatch issues or being unable to prevent dispatch issues as a result of their lack of real-world experience on the birds. But I think even those will be put behind them quickly.



My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
User currently offlineKaitak744 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2413 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7456 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 5):
Indeed, I would think the dispatch reliability of the A380 will set a record for a new-in-service aircraft type.

I believe the best record for reliability of a new type is held by the 777-300ER?
If not, which aircraft is it?


User currently offlineTdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80
Reply 7, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7429 times:

Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):
What is the expected reliability of a new type? What would be good, what would be worrisome? Airbus is said to have dispatched 20 people to Singapore to check on the plane. Can that last for long?

The expected reliability goes somewhat inversely with size, so even a mature A380 will probably have a lower reliability than an A320 or 737. That's mostly due to complexity.

Dispatch reliability over 95% initially would probably be considered good. Under 90% would be bad. The grey area in the middle is hard to fathom.

I doubt they'll keep 20 people in Singapore for a long time, but certainly until they get their 3rd airframe. Until then, there's no backup so they need to fix anything and everything that goes wrong on overnights. Apparently, they'll actually have a Panasonic engineer onboard to make sure the IFE plays nice.

Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):

What types have had the most serious teething problems in the last thirty years? How long to they last?

747-400 had a very rocky start in getting all the avionics and BITE to talk to each other. A320 had major issues with the FBW system at first. Given that we only get a new plane from each OEM about every 10-15 years, there are always a bunch of new technologies and they never work exactly like they're supposed to.

Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):
Due to the ever changing configuration of the A380 until msn 26, should we expect much longer teething problems?

I doubt it. The final configuration of MSN 0001-0026 should end up pretty close to the production configuration once all is said and done. Plus, all of the little faults that come about during production should have been eliminated on the early airframes long before they get into a customer's hands.

Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):
How long before a plane reache its long term dispatchability rate? How high can it be ?

I'm not sure how long it will take. Given the low build rate on the A380, several years is probably normal. Dispatch reliability can hit 99.7-99.8% on a narrow body, but I don't think any widebody fleets get that high.

Tom.


User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4376 posts, RR: 27
Reply 8, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7337 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 6):
I believe the best record for reliability of a new type is held by the 777-300ER?
If not, which aircraft is it?

I'm not sure a variant would be good to compare to a completely new type. However, the original 777 had a dispatch reliability rate in its first 3 months with UA of 97.7%, which I think was a record at the time and probably still is for a widebody.

Quote:
In its first three months of revenue service, United Airline's 777 fleet has experienced a cumulative schedule reliability of 97.7 percent, he said. Schedule reliability is the industry measure for the percentage of time an airplane is free of mechanical delays and able to leave a boarding gate within 15 minutes of scheduled departure. This is a dramatic improvement over the introductions of the 767 and the 747, which achieved this level at 18 months and 38 months respectively.

http://boeing.com/commercial/777fami...news/1995/news.release.951030.html

With all the flight testing the A380 has undergone during the past 2 1/2 years, not to mention its more advanced design, I would think it should have no problem achieving a similar dispatch rate even though it is a quad and much bigger.



My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8046 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7318 times:

Given the much longer testing period, I expect the A380-800 to be quite reliable.

User currently offlineStarrion From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1131 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 7226 times:

isn't it going to be difficult to get a statistically meaninful dispatch rate with only a couple aircraft in service?

One aircraft has a persistant oddball reading and the dispatch rate could be thrashed.



Knowledge Replaces Fear
User currently offlineWjcandee From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5368 posts, RR: 22
Reply 11, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 7188 times:

Didn't the 753 have an extraordinarily-good dispatch reliability when it was introduced? I thought that Condor had it up near 99% very quickly. Of course, that's a variation on an already-very-reliable airplane.

User currently offlineUnited787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 6603 times:

Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):
What types have had the most serious teething problems in the last thirty years? How long to they last?

Didn't the EMB-175 have a lot of teething problems at AC; something with the electrical system?


User currently offline474218 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6340 posts, RR: 9
Reply 13, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 4963 times:

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 7):
Dispatch reliability over 95% initially would probably be considered good. Under 90% would be bad. The grey area in the middle is hard to fathom.

Modern airliners have a dispatch reliability of 98% or better. Dropping to 97% or lower raises all kind of read flags at the manufacture and operator.


User currently offlineTdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80
Reply 14, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 4915 times:

Quoting 474218 (Reply 13):
Modern airliners have a dispatch reliability of 98% or better. Dropping to 97% or lower raises all kind of read flags at the manufacture and operator.

That's definitely true for a mature program but service-entry is a whole different ballgame. I'd be very surprised if any new type entered service at 97%+.

Tom.


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