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BA/BMI How Likely?  
User currently offlineCF105Arrow From Canada, joined Oct 2007, 319 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 4014 times:

Thursday October 18, 3:14 am ET


LONDON (Reuters) - The Times newspaper said on Thursday that aviation sources believed British Airways (BA) was in talks with Michael Bishop, the controlling shareholder of bmi, about buying the British carrier.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071018/ba_deals.html?.v=7

Could this eventually happen?

47 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLifelinerOne From Netherlands, joined Nov 2003, 1922 posts, RR: 7
Reply 1, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 3978 times:

I think these two will be to big at LHR and they will probably have to give up to much slots to make this deal effective. So, no, I don't think these two arch enemies will become one soon.

Cheers!  wave 



Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
User currently offlineRivet42 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 818 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3929 times:

This was discussed yesterday -

Possibility Of A BA/BD/AA Tie Up?



I travel, therefore I am.
User currently offlineGilesdavies From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 3025 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3845 times:

Lets hope the day of this happening never appears!

If this happened there would be no British airline competition out of Heathrow, and other an LCC, BA would be the only full service airline left in the UK.

There is enough market for both airlines to compete side-by-side. I would also hope the UK governments Anti Monopoly commission would see sense and block any merger taking place...

A few months ago I was against BMI being taken over by a foreign carrier, but when you see what Lufthansa has done for Swiss, I think they could do the same for BMI... I think BA needs some serious competition on their home patch! Virgin to some extent does provide some competiton on the long haul routes, but picks the cream of the crop on what routes they operate.


User currently offlineUAL777UK From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2005, 3356 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3826 times:

Quoting Gilesdavies (Reply 3):
A few months ago I was against BMI being taken over by a foreign carrier, but when you see what Lufthansa has done for Swiss, I think they could do the same for BMI... I think BA needs some serious competition on their home patch! Virgin to some extent does provide some competiton on the long haul routes, but picks the cream of the crop on what routes they operate.

Agreed. I am hoping and praying that LH do come and take over BD or at least increase their stake by acquiring SAS interest. With all thats going on at BD at present with the new BMED routes, the eventual starting of transatlantic routes, that will make them a formidable carrier especially with LH well onboard!


User currently offlineUK_Dispatcher From United Arab Emirates, joined Dec 2001, 2595 posts, RR: 29
Reply 5, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3825 times:

I also would not like to see this happen and would be very surprised if Sir Michael ever sold out to BA.

I would only be in favour of a VS/BD merger/takeover if domestic UK flights such as MME, LBA, EDI, GLA, ABZ etc were maintained but do not think VS would be remotely interested in these.

LH on the other hand might not be a bad idea, but again I would like to see UK Domestic flights maintained.


User currently offlineMutu From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 538 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3806 times:

Quoting Gilesdavies (Reply 3):
A few months ago I was against BMI being taken over by a foreign carrier, but when you see what Lufthansa has done for Swiss, I think they could do the same for BMI... I think BA needs some serious competition on their home patch! Virgin to some extent does provide some competiton on the long haul routes, but picks the cream of the crop on what routes they operate.

Youve mentioned this before but yet the facts suggest there is plenty of competition at LHR and plenty of alternatives to LHR. Post open skies there is less sensitivity about slots. There is in fact very little network overlap BA/BD and other than the scottish "shuttle" there would still be competition. BA manages to be one of the innovative market leaders in product offering particlualrly long haul where many people have since benefitted as other carriers push the bar upwards to follow/catch up and then overtake.
As for the competition authorities, well they will look at the alternatives available (enough); the government would probably welcome domestic and short european fares rising to push people onto trains for environmental politics (!)
But despite this cant see it happening unless it is purely the LHR ops leaving Baby and Regional behind in the hands of SMB.

But putting all of this aside, there is a logic from a purely nationalistic viewpoint: Before long the UK could have 3 longhaul carriers serving LHR, competing with each other and everyone else. With the rest of europe slowly consolidating under AF or LH, who will be the losers ultimately? The UK passenger. If you take the spirit of EU/US open skies, then there are plenty of carriers who can fly ex LHR if they can afford to. Nevermind EU consolidation we seriously need consolidation of the UK mainline carriers to survive


User currently offlineSevenair From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2001, 1728 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 3711 times:

I would like to see better connections to VS long haul. If they could sell flights (as they already do) on BD under a virgin brand (eg Virgin Connect) I believe this would be great. They could increase the brand awareness in the regions more. Selling though tickets on codeshare flights. Maybe even a few branded aircraft would be cool! This would also take the virgin airline brand in to mainland Europe, where it unfortunately has little impact right now with the demise of the Virgin Express brand.

User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7538 posts, RR: 17
Reply 8, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 3672 times:

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 1):
I think these two will be to big at LHR and they will probably have to give up to much slots to make this deal effective.



Quoting Gilesdavies (Reply 3):
If this happened there would be no British airline competition out of Heathrow, and other an LCC, BA would be the only full service airline left in the UK.

I am quite sure the British government should and would not let BA take over BD. Having said that it is worth noting that a combined BA and BD with around 56 per cent of LHR slots would be less dominant than AF/KL is at both AMS and CDG or, for example LH is at FRA and SK is at both ARN and CPH. These three airlines have a geographically much larger domestic market. These markets are therefore more reliant internally on air transport than is the case with the UK. But over the years we have seen greater consolidation of the airline industry in these areas than in the UK. AF as a matter of government policy absorbed Air Inter and UTA. LH effectively own Air Dolimiti, Eurowings and Germanwings. SK have bought up and absorbed virtually any locally competitive airline including Braathens, Cimber Air, Linjeflyg, Skyways Express and Wideroe.

Many would dispute the claim that if BA absorbed BD "BA would be the only full service airline left in the UK". Not least of these would be Sir Richard Branson!


User currently offlineFlyCaledonian From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2091 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 3635 times:

Everyone goes on about this would be bad - but BA and BD only duplicate their domestic routes from LHR to EDI, GLA, ABZ and MAN. Not sure how long BD will run the latter given the huge market increase Vurgin Trains is achieving between London and Manchester (BD dropped CDG because it was suffering from BA and AF plus EuroStar). In Europe only the BRU has no other carrier operating, with EI already (or going to) serve DUB and Belfast, and KL serving AMS. Other routes are low frequency.

BA Could say it would dispose of soem slots to another carrier that wished to operate to EDI, GLA, ABZ, BRU from LHR, but this merger would be beneficial. When BD first started challenging BA at LHR in the 1980s - both on demosetci and European flights - it was a very different market from today, with airlines state owned and no Ryanair or easyJet.

BA could also make a guarantee to maintain flights to LBA, INV and JER under a deal, so ringfencing say three/four slot pairs a day to serve these destinations. What it did with the rest would be up to BA.

Plus as others have said, SMB could maybe keep baby and regional as neither would benefit BA.



Let's Go British Caledonian!
User currently offlineAIR MALTA From Malta, joined Sep 2001, 2501 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 3503 times:

I am hugely surprised that a lot of British A.netters are against this. There is a huge competition going on at LHR at the moment even if BD wasn't around. Look at AF, LH, EK, QR, SQ. Nobody in the UK needs LHR to go to London or to transfer to another destinations. AF, LH and especially KL serve the regions better than BA and BD do together.

If things remain like they are today with 3 British Airlines competing at LHR with all the other airlines and alliances, the losers are gonna be BA and BD. LH could come to the rescue of BD. It could even buy BD and use it to start its own services to the US from LHR. LH wouldn't have any problems getting rid of all those GYD, BAK, ALA,... routes and use the slots to serve the US and reroute passengers to those axed routes through FRA or MUC.

STAR and SKY have a better presence in the UK than OneWorld and BA have in their hubs. If we do not see a consolidation of the British airlines and a 3rd runway at LHR, we could then kiss BA and BD good bye. Our British Airlines wouldn't be able to compete with the like of AF/KL, LH/LX and all other SQ, QR and EK.

I think a BA/BD tie up would create a better UK airline with a stronger base at LHR. The regions would be better served and the spare slots coming from the duplicate routes could be used to increase US flights and expand into Asia and South America if the conditions are good.

I defintely think that there is more to that BA/BD/BMED deal than we think!!!!



Next flights : BRU-ZRH-CAI (LX)/ BRU-FCO-TLV (AZ)
User currently offlineAntonovman From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2001, 720 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 3394 times:

I worked for BMI or BMA as they were then, more than 30 years ago and that runour was going around then. SMB will never sell BMI to anyone, he will own it till the end of his days

User currently offlineBY738 From Tonga, joined Sep 2000, 2326 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3365 times:

Quoting Antonovman (Reply 11):
he will own it till the end of his days

You dont honestly believe that, in this current climate. Give it less than 5 years and BMI will have gone to someone be it BA LH or VS.


User currently offlineAntonovman From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2001, 720 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 3246 times:

Quoting BY738 (Reply 12):
You dont honestly believe that, in this current climate. Give it less than 5 years and BMI will have gone to someone

Thats what they said 30 years ago


User currently offlineMMEPHX From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 3065 times:

Quoting UK_Dispatcher (Reply 5):
would only be in favour of a VS/BD merger/takeover if domestic UK flights such as MME, LBA, EDI, GLA, ABZ etc were maintained but do not think VS would be remotely interested in these.

Well if BA did buy BMI then we can kiss goodbye to a lot of those flights. BA's lack of commitment to the regions is legendary. I have to doubt if a BA/BD merger could go through without serious cuts in the LHR slots which then probably wouldn't make much sense to a merger. Now, a LH (or other Star) acquisition would make more sense, give *A a lot more slots, though the UK regional flights might still suffer, lots more access to LHR. This may inadvertently aid any BA/AA tie up,/ATI request as BA/AA could then point to the fairly significant LH/*A presence as a balance to their number of slots.

be interesting to see if there is any truth to these stories and what the final outcome will be.


User currently offlineAlangirvan From New Zealand, joined Nov 2000, 2106 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 3022 times:

If Air France can announce LHR-LAX under Open Skies, Lufthansa could also do its own flights from UK to USA, if it thinks that makes best use of slots at LHR. LH could have a UK based carrier, which might as well be branded bmi. The Star Alliance is now lacking a presence on LHR-JFK, since United sold the route to Delta, and bmi decided not to start flying there until 2009. Or will the Star Alliance leave LHR-JFK to Singapore Airlines. It would strenghthen bmi if its A330s could be part of an order placed by the Lufthansa group, just like the recent order for Swiss.

Other thought - if Emirates wanted to start a Europe based carrier with ownership structured so that it was a European airline (as Zoom as done with their Zoom UK), bmi would be good airline to place all the EK 777-300ERs, A380s, A350s, 787s if they found that they had ordered more than they could use themselves. BMI to become EmiratesUK?


User currently offlineAIR MALTA From Malta, joined Sep 2001, 2501 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 8 hours ago) and read 2959 times:

Quoting Alangirvan (Reply 15):
BMI to become EmiratesUK?

This would defintely be a "Horror" scenario. Don't you think it is time to stop all UK compnies being sold to foreign ones??



Next flights : BRU-ZRH-CAI (LX)/ BRU-FCO-TLV (AZ)
User currently offlineAlanUK From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (6 years 11 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 2726 times:

Quoting Antonovman (Reply 13):
Quoting BY738 (Reply 12):
You dont honestly believe that, in this current climate. Give it less than 5 years and BMI will have gone to someone

Thats what they said 30 years ago

Then bmi will go bust... bmi, just like Virgin, is probably very worried right now... It's a case of GROW or DIE. In the case of Virgin: no alliance, no network, no feeding traffic, and a host of huge groups (AF/KL/DL and BA/AA and UA/LH) that now have access to the gold nest that is LHR...


User currently offlineAlangirvan From New Zealand, joined Nov 2000, 2106 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (6 years 11 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 2661 times:

Quoting AIR MALTA (Reply 16):
Quoting Alangirvan (Reply 15):
BMI to become EmiratesUK?

This would defintely be a "Horror" scenario. Don't you think it is time to stop all UK compnies being sold to foreign ones??

Where do you start? British Football teams? Car manufacturers? British shipping lines? If BA does go ahead with a merger with AA, just how British will it be ?

If some people think non-British ownership of British based airlines is a horror scenario, will anyone do anything about it? If the Singapore shares in Virgin and other shares in bmi go on the market at a similar time, is there enough British money available to keep them British owned and controlled? If bmi becomes a big airline over the Atlantic, they will want to fund purchase of planes that will replace the A330s. A shame if a British syndicate is left with no money to fund those new planes.

So, would you accept ownership by Nationals from another European country - ie Lufthansa? Lufthansa to appoint the new airline's CEO and expect that the new airline will meet targets? As was said above, this seems to be working for Swiss. I don't think people would want the new airline to just feed Lufthansa long haul services.

Emirates UK? Well, if a small Canadian carrier like Zoom can start a UK subsidiary that meets UK ownership and control requirements, anyone can do it. EmiratesUK, UnitedUK, AeroflotUK. If the UAE has an Open Skies agreement with UK and Emirates can get enough slots to fly the Atlantic from the UK there would be no need for them to start a UK subsidiary. Some British people would probably quite enjoy being able to fly Emirates LHR-JFK, and perhaps they would see nothing wrong with EmiratesUK flying London to Tokyo non-stop. People might be a bit puzzled about flying London to Edinburgh on Emirates UK.

It may be only a few years until these become serious issues. Is there still time for Emirates to get naming rights for the 2012 Olympics?


User currently offlineRivet42 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 818 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (6 years 11 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 2633 times:

What on earth makes you think that Emirates would have any interest in such a venture??? Have they expressed as much, or is this just idle speculation...?

For the record though, I'm not aware of any foreign ownership laws as such in UK, it's merely a matter for individual companies. For example, I understand that BA's Articles of Association prohibit more than 49% of the stock being owned by non-UK entities, but I don't know if BD have any such restriction. Their relationship with LH and SK in terms of stock control may affect who can buy SMB's stake, but I don't know the details.

Frankly, it's quite tedious trying to filter out all the speculative banter from what has been reported as fact by reputable media sources, what people here think may or should happen will have absolutely no bearing on the eventuality.

Riv'



I travel, therefore I am.
User currently offlineAlangirvan From New Zealand, joined Nov 2000, 2106 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (6 years 11 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 2602 times:

When I mentioned Emirates, yes that was idle speculation on my part. I think it is true bmi and Virgin shares will be on the market sooner or later - we may be having this discussion in 10 years time. Emirates may never be interested in flying between the UK and the USA, though many airline are, and it is fair to say that Emirates is interested in everything. They have been linked with many plans which exist only in some peoples' imagination.

It would be true that an airline has to be owned an controlled in an EC country to take advantage of Europe-USA Open Skies. Emirates or any other foreign carrier could set up an EC based operation - it could do it by taking over bmi, or it might decide that a clean sheet of paper is they way to do it. Multi nationals work in other industries, why would they not work in the airline industry?

Speculative banter is allowed in airliners. No one is saying what should happen. But it takes a long time for the official announcements to come out and people do like to fill in the time.


User currently offlineUAL777UK From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2005, 3356 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (6 years 11 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 2572 times:

Quoting AlanUK (Reply 17):
Then bmi will go bust... bmi, just like Virgin, is probably very worried right now

Whilst I agree to a degree with VS, I dont think for one minute that bmi is "very worried" as you put it. I think they are making the right decision concentrating on intigrating Bmed into their ops and then go for the US in 2009. You seem to forget that they have a trump up their sleeve in the guise of LH and IMHO its only a mattter of time before they take a very big controlling stake in Bmi and then it will not have to be the VS's of this world that will have to be worried, with the slots they have, the financial clout and management expertise of LH, its BA that will be worried. Everybody is crawling all over their once bullet proof patch...ouch!!


User currently offlineAlanUK From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (6 years 11 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 2522 times:

Quoting UAL777UK (Reply 21):
its BA that will be worried. Everybody is crawling all over their once bullet proof patch...ouch!!

Very good point. I'm sure BA is quietly worried about this new competition. However, it does bare the question: with KLM possibly giving their slots to AF/DL/NW to operate Trans-Atlantic, and bmi possibly going the same way with LH/UA... Which airline is going to bring traffic to LHR from Europe? If LHR allows itself to concentrate so much on the US-Market and most slots are used for UK-US routes, where are all the connecting passengers going to come from? (I'm talking UK and Europe transfers here)...

I still maintain that a BA/BD merger would be a good thing for the interest of UK aviation: it will finally make BA a stronger player against the recent wave of mergers that have created LH/UA, KL/AF (maybe soon to be KL/AF/IB/NW/DL).

BA will have to at least try bmi, if that fails re-try AA, since the market is now "open", the nod from the competition commission should be easier to gain.


User currently offlineUAL777UK From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2005, 3356 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (6 years 11 months 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 2474 times:

Quoting AlanUK (Reply 22):
I still maintain that a BA/BD merger would be a good thing for the interest of UK aviation: it will finally make BA a stronger player against the recent wave of mergers that have created LH/UA, KL/AF (maybe soon to be

UK Aviation or for BA??...I think you mean the latter!. Remove competitiion, increase fares etc. I cannot how that helps UK Aviation and indeed the consumer. I hope a deal will never be done, besides even if BA wanted to do a deal, guess who has first rights to the BD stock...yup LH and they will not allow that to go by the wayside IMHO.

And by the way UA/LH have not merged, they are nothing like AF/KLM. Yes they share revenue on routes over the Atalntic but to sasy thats anything like AF/KLM is way off the mark.


BA stated last week they were not in talks with BD and that they wanted to concentrate on getting closer on the dance floor with AA. Time will tell if that takes off again and if so at what cost.


User currently offlineScotron11 From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2004, 1178 posts, RR: 3
Reply 24, posted (6 years 11 months 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 2453 times:

Quoting AlanUK (Reply 22):

Very good point. I'm sure BA is quietly worried about this new competition.

To a certain extent. If their goal is closer ties with AA, then all this competition helps. BA have a very strong base at LHR, which will be a lot better when T5 opens. Coupled with reports that they are planning direct EU-US flights, it seems BA is being the most aggressive.


25 AIR MALTA : How can be the competition removed if BA swallows BD? They hardly have overlapping routes. You're right. We need consolidation in the UK. BA badly ne
26 JoFMO : But there is always the possibility of a dirty deal between BA and LH. I give you BMI and you give me IB. Would be very favorable for both parties (e
27 UAL777UK : Domestically to start with, AMS, BRU, pretty much whereever BD fly out of from LHR, BA also flies there so to say there is no overlap is a bit wide o
28 Rivet42 : ... maybe that's because we know what the reality is and you don't??? Fact: a BA takeover of BD will not be allowed, even if BA were interested, and
29 Avek00 : Very wishful thinking on the part of anyone. For starters, with BD's continued intra-Europe cutbacks, the carrier competes less and less with BA with
30 Rivet42 : Funnily enough, according to Airport Coordination Ltd (ACL - London's slot allocation body) data, in summer 2007 BD had an average 1079 runway moveme
31 JoFMO : That is why I still thing that they would have to give up some NYC-LON slots to get ATI.
32 Commavia : While I'm not sure how likely it is, I'd be thrilled if BA took over bmi - I've been hoping for that (and have said as much here on A.net) for a while
33 AIR MALTA : At least somebody got it right. This is what I meant when I said that a BA/BD tie up would be a great idea. We need a strong BA to compete with the l
34 Avek00 : Your own numbers suggest that BA/BD would control just 52% of all movements at Heathrow -- on a percentage basis, BA/BD would control fewer flights a
35 JoFMO : You can't compare LHR with either CDG, AMS or FRA. There significant differences. LHR is a closed market with no slots for anybody to grow. AMS is wi
36 Post contains images Scotron11 : Your own numbers suggest that BA/BD would control just 52% of all movements at Heathrow -- on a percentage basis, BA/BD would control fewer flights a
37 AIR MALTA : A lot of airlines are groing at LHR. EK serves LHR 5 times daily. DL, NW and CO are going to start operating out of LHR. IF BD decides to go ahead wi
38 JoFMO : So if you consider that as bad why make it even worse by proposing BM+BA? Under this scenario not only MAS, BRU and JER might go, but also ABZ, EDI,
39 Rivet42 : It's interesting how some appear to think that the role of the competition authorities is to safeguard the prosperity of one company or another. My un
40 AlanUK : Dictionary definition of fact: fact (n.) a statement or assertion of verified information about something that is the case or has happened : "he supp
41 Jfk777 : BA and BMI would never happen for many reasons first being 53% of LHR's slots. CDG, FRA & AMS are apples and oranges since the world flies to LHR befo
42 Post contains links Rivet42 : Further to the figures I quoted above, from the Airport Coordination Ltd website, I have run a quick analysis on actual slot use at LHR for the first
43 Avek00 : OK, then compare it with the large -- and largely constrained -- hub airports in North America. A BA/BD would still possess a smaller market share th
44 Adicool : How many slots does LH/LX have right now and how many would they have if they were to buy BD? LH is probably dying to get its hands on the JFK-LHR ser
45 JoFMO : LAX, SFO, ORD are a good star. Add other major world class cities as JFK, NRT. No hub airlines is very dominant in thnis kind of cities. FRA plays mo
46 JoFMO : There are also some interesting comments from LH's CEO and their financial chief made at their quarterly presentation. They said that they are prepare
47 Pvdcmhoz : Maybe this is the begining of a "new" BOAC and BEA? BA will operate a longhaul network from LHR and BD will operate domestic and EU flights as a diffe
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