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Will AA Ever Fly DFW-China?  
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7808 posts, RR: 25
Posted (7 years 2 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3649 times:

Thinking about the next allocations of frequencies to China, which hub would AA apply from? Now that they have ORD-PVG/PEK allocated for, who would be next?


Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
30 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33280 posts, RR: 71
Reply 1, posted (7 years 2 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3643 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
Thinking about the next allocations of frequencies to China, which hub would AA apply from? Now that they have ORD-PVG/PEK allocated for, who would be next?

I think DFW-PEK or LAX-PVG will be the next application. Though when AA gets 787s, and I know not many people will agree with me, I think an application for MIA-PVG isn't out of the question, because they can capitalize on Latin America-China traffic, which is going to explode, and which AA doesn't want Delta to control.



a.
User currently offlineMcMax From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (7 years 2 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3625 times:

I would hope LAX-PVG would be the next application as AA risks ceding the LAX-China market to UA. However, I was under the impression AA did not have enough international-gate space available at Terminal 4 to add much more international service at LAX.


De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7808 posts, RR: 25
Reply 3, posted (7 years 2 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3612 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
I think DFW-PEK or LAX-PVG will be the next application.

Those would be my guesses too. I think the next applications are going to be between DFW and LAX. I think they will get which ever ones they apply for because Texas has no China service and LAX has no China service on a domestic carrier. CO has already stated they want to fly IAH-PVG/PEK.

Quoting McMax (Reply 2):
I would hope LAX-PVG would be the next application as AA risks ceding the LAX-China market to UA.

I think the LAX-Asia market has already been ceeded to UA. However AA can get some of it back if they can go for LAX-China.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9700 posts, RR: 14
Reply 4, posted (7 years 2 months 3 days ago) and read 3607 times:

Quoting McMax (Reply 2):
I would hope LAX-PVG would be the next application as AA risks ceding the LAX-China market to UA. However, I was under the impression AA did not have enough international-gate space available at Terminal 4 to add much more international service at LAX.

dont worry i really think that DL will wait on ATL-PEK for now(which sucks but stuff happens) and go for LAX next round to keep it from UA.

AA will most likely try for DTW-China as soon as they get the contracts worked out (and T7s or 787s to fly it)



yep.
User currently offlineMcMax From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (7 years 2 months 3 days ago) and read 3601 times:

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):
dont worry i really think that DL will wait on ATL-PEK for now(which sucks but stuff happens) and go for LAX next round to keep it from UA.

AA will most likely try for DTW-China as soon as they get the contracts worked out (and T7s or 787s to fly it)

I don't think DL will try for LAX-China in the next round as it needs ATL-PEK to round out its ATL-hub ambitions. I would also suspect JFK is higher on DL's list than LAX given that DL has a not-too-significant feed into LAX. However, with the congestion going on at JFK and DOT wanting to clamp down on additional JFK flights, you may be right in DL seeking LAX-China in the next round.

No offense, but I don't see AA applying for DTW-China ever. I think you mean DFW-China.   But, given AA's latest foray into NW territory with LGA-MSP, perhaps AA would consider applying for DTW-China to compete with NW.  Big grin

[Edited 2007-10-20 13:58:53]


De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
User currently offlineIloveboeing From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 803 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (7 years 2 months 3 days ago) and read 3586 times:

Wait! They still have another Chinese city to serve from ORD: HKG! UA could use some competition.

User currently offlineIflyatldl From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1936 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (7 years 2 months 3 days ago) and read 3586 times:

Quoting Delta L1011man reply 4:

AA will most likely try for DTW-China as soon as they get the contracts worked out (and T7s or 787s to fly it)

And the Big Bad Wolf said to Little Red Riding Hood........  Wink NW will just love that! Big grin
I think he meant DFW.



Ah, Summer, Fenway Park, Boston Red Sox and Beer.....
User currently offlineMcMax From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (7 years 2 months 3 days ago) and read 3573 times:

Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 6):
Wait! They still have another Chinese city to serve from ORD: HKG! UA could use some competition.

Hong Kong is not covered by these route applications. But personally, I'd prefer CX to fly ORD-HKG. On the good side, great service and it stays in the oneworld family. On the bad side, no Aadvantage elite upgrades on CX  Sad



De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9700 posts, RR: 14
Reply 9, posted (7 years 2 months 3 days ago) and read 3553 times:

Quoting McMax (Reply 5):
No offense, but I don't see AA applying for DTW-China ever



Quoting Iflyatldl (Reply 7):
And the Big Bad Wolf said to Little Red Riding Hood........ NW will just love that!
I think he meant DFW

lmao my bad guys yea i meant DFW



yep.
User currently offlineIloveboeing From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 803 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (7 years 2 months 3 days ago) and read 3535 times:

Quoting McMax (Reply 8):

Hong Kong is not covered by these route applications. But personally, I'd prefer CX to fly ORD-HKG. On the good side, great service and it stays in the oneworld family. On the bad side, no Aadvantage elite upgrades on CX

Yes, that is true, even though it is a part of China. But someone has to do it. CX, AA, or O8. UA can't have the route all to itself.


User currently offlineIflyatldl From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1936 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (7 years 2 months 3 days ago) and read 3525 times:

Delta1011man- Just some friendly ribbing on a typo-just couldn't resist! God knows, I've had my share of them. Big grin


Ah, Summer, Fenway Park, Boston Red Sox and Beer.....
User currently offlineSuper80DFW From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 1697 posts, RR: 11
Reply 12, posted (7 years 2 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3326 times:

I really hope so. Did anyone see my thread I posted called "DFW Neglection." Maybe AA just needs to get 777-200LR's that could fly the route maybe.


"Things change, friends leave, life doesn't stop for anybody." -- EAT'EM UP EAT'EM UP KSU!!
User currently offlineElmoTheHobo From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1545 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (7 years 2 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3313 times:

Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 10):
But someone has to do it. CX, AA, or O8. UA can't have the route all to itself.

And why not? They have shown that they are commited to the market, and have even added additional frequencies to the market. Meanwhile O8, AA and CX have yet to add anything. The US-HK market is relatively free, no one is stopping new frequencies from being added or new carriers from entering. Until someone else launches HKG-ORD, UA sure does deserve to have the route to themselves.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 3):
I think the LAX-Asia market has already been ceeded to UA. However AA can get some of it back if they can go for LAX-China.



Quoting McMax (Reply 2):
I would hope LAX-PVG would be the next application as AA risks ceding the LAX-China market to UA.

That and DFW-PEK were rumored to be AA's application for the previous round of frequencies. The rest is history. American would be unwise to apply for Los Angeles - Shanghai frequencies. United applied, and even suggested using much bigger 747s and didn't get the frequencies... shame really when you consider that Northwest and USAirways got the frequencies.

Quoting McMax (Reply 2):
However, I was under the impression AA did not have enough international-gate space available at Terminal 4 to add much more international service at LAX.

They have a little breathing room. They can have 3 747 sized aircrafted a T4 at any given time.


User currently offlineMcMax From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 2 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 3132 times:

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 13):
That and DFW-PEK were rumored to be AA's application for the previous round of frequencies. The rest is history. American would be unwise to apply for Los Angeles - Shanghai frequencies. United applied, and even suggested using much bigger 747s and didn't get the frequencies

I don't think UA was denied their LAX-PVG application because it was not worthy. I think DOT reasoned that UA got two of the last three awards (IAD-PEK and LAX-CAN), and the rest of the majors would be up in arms if UA was awarded another route ahead of AA, CO, NW and DL, who combined, only had 3 routes between them. California to China has the largest catchment basin for O&D passengers (not to mention connecting passengers from the Midwest and West), and it merely has 2 UA flights from SFO to China. I think whoever applies for LAX-China in the next round is bound to get it, especially if California politicians have their way.



De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
User currently offlineSkyyMaster From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (7 years 2 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 3111 times:

As has been said, AA isn't going to be flying from DFW to any place in China unless they get a new contract with APA. That's why they shifted their PEK request from DFW to ORD. Since it appears all China authorities have been awarded for the next few years, it's going to be awhile. Then again it may take that long to get APA to agree on a flight of that stage length. Same reasoning why they won't be flying DFW-Sydney or other similarly long routes.

User currently offlineElmoTheHobo From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1545 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (7 years 2 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3080 times:

Quoting McMax (Reply 14):
think DOT reasoned that UA got two of the last three awards (IAD-PEK and LAX-CAN), and the rest of the majors would be up in arms if UA was awarded another route ahead of AA, CO, NW and DL, who combined, only had 3 routes between them.

True, though I think this equal distribution thing has to stop. United has submitted the best applications for new routes of any airline. I hope that United reapplies for LAX-PVG/PEK when the next frequencies become available.

Also, Northwest had 28 frequencies, 21 passenger and 7 cargo, prior to the latest round of frequency allocations, which they use via Tokyo, which, as I've said before, is a huge misuse of a limited resource. Northwest's application should have been rejected and given to United.

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 15):
Same reasoning why they won't be flying DFW-Sydney or other similarly long routes.

That and the 777 couldn't make it from Dallas to Sydney with any kind of reasonable load.

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 15):
As has been said, AA isn't going to be flying from DFW to any place in China unless they get a new contract with APA

American will certainly have this addressed during contract negotiations. They (both the pilots and the airline) would be foolish to stunt their own growth and virtually hand the ULR market to Delta, Continental and United.


User currently offlineSkyyMaster From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (7 years 2 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3067 times:

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 16):
They (both the pilots and the airline) would be foolish to stunt their own growth and virtually hand the ULR market to Delta, Continental and United.

I agree totally, but having lived in Dallas for years and seen the contempt both sides have for each other (I recall sitting up the night of the pilot strike in the arly 90's watching TV that required presidential intervention), anything is possible. Sort of the old phrase, "cutting off your nose to spite your face". I just can't imagine it would come to that, but AA would do well to get a contract, order long range a/c, and remain competitive. Don't look at what life will be like in 2-3 years, but in 5+, which is what many other airlines seem to be doing.


User currently offlineMcMax From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (7 years 2 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3063 times:

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 16):
They (both the pilots and the airline) would be foolish to stunt their own growth and virtually hand the ULR market to Delta, Continental and United.

Isn't that what is already going on? AA needs to order new planes but won't because they don't want to give the pilots upper hand in any negotiations. This affects their competitive position currently (lack of new routes or expansion, and lack of earlier delivery slots of fuel-saving planes). The pilots issue incredible demands because they perceive they need to punish management. Both sides are already stunting growth and handing over many markets to CO and DL. (I don't say UA here because UA is such a mess as well).

During labor contract negotiations, there is enough foolishness and stupidity to go around on both sides. I just wish both sides would act like mature adult professionals, and work for the common good (namely the profitable surivivability of AA). But, I guess that might be too much to ask so long as negotiations are done through the media.

Sorry, didn't mean to hijack the thread to an AA labor issue thread.

Back to topic though...despite AA's desire to connect their largest hub to China, I just don't believe the traffic is there. Any flights to China from Midwest/Southeast cities (the only cities for which connections make reasonable sense through DFW) could just as easily be accomplished from Chicago, and would be more distance-efficient. While there is a degree of O&D traffic to China from DFW-area, I think the greater demand is from California. To me, it just doesn't seem like a good utilization of scarce resources (e.g., planes, route authorities) to fly from the Southern part of the US to China because of the reduced efficient catchment basin compared to a Chicago or California.



De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
User currently offlineElmoTheHobo From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1545 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (7 years 2 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3036 times:

Quoting McMax (Reply 18):
To me, it just doesn't seem like a good utilization of scarce resources (e.g., planes, route authorities) to fly from the Southern part of the US to China because of the reduced efficient catchment basin compared to a Chicago or California.

There are business connections between Texas and China, Texas Instruments is the biggest one I can think of off hand. IMO American would be unwise to submit a competing application for LAX-China service if United is the other carrier proposing service. The DoT cares about new entrants, but they also want bigger aircraft. The biggest aircraft American can offer is their 777, which offers a measely (relative to United's 747) 245 seats to 350+ seats on United. That, and United has a much better feeder network ex-LAX.

American would be wise to focus on DFW, ORD and JFK for future service to China (be it HKG, PVG or PEK), and leave LAX-China to United.


User currently offlineMcMax From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (7 years 2 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3027 times:

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 19):
The DoT cares about new entrants, but they also want bigger aircraft. The biggest aircraft American can offer is their 777, which offers a measely (relative to United's 747) 245 seats to 350+ seats on United. That, and United has a much better feeder network ex-LAX.

American would be wise to focus on DFW, ORD and JFK for future service to China (be it HKG, PVG or PEK), and leave LAX-China to United.

I would have to disagree. If your argument is that AA should cede the LAX-China market to UA because UA flies larger planes, then can you clarify how AA received an ORD-PEK award for 777 service while UA flies ORD-PEK route with a 747?

California is a large market for AA (with a large percentage of its elite AAdvantage members here). Additionally, it's not just based on feeder traffic. LAX is the largest O&D airport in the US. The population of the second-largest metropolitan area in the US has more than enough China-bound traffic to support both UA and AA.



De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
User currently offlineElmoTheHobo From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1545 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (7 years 2 months 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2985 times:

Quoting McMax (Reply 20):
If your argument is that AA should cede the LAX-China market to UA because UA flies larger planes, then can you clarify how AA received an ORD-PEK award for 777 service while UA flies ORD-PEK route with a 747?

American applied for ORD-PVG and ORD-PEK long after United had launched these routes. American got ORD-PVG because it was a new entrant, and provided United with competition, the second time for more or less the same reasons. Had American and United applied at the same time, United with 747s and American with 777s, United would have gotten it hands down.

I'm saying that it is unwise for American to apply for frequencies from LAX if United applying, as it will be a waste of their time. Now if you United doesn't apply, it would make perfect sense for American to apply as they would stand a greater chance of getting the frequency. I would be very surprised if both UA and AA applied for LAX-PVG or LAX-PEK and the DoT awarded them both frequencies.

Quoting McMax (Reply 20):
Additionally, it's not just based on feeder traffic. LAX is the largest O&D airport in the US. The population of the second-largest metropolitan area in the US has more than enough China-bound traffic to support both UA and AA.

Yes, but it is factored in. It is also the largest O/D market to China IIRC. LAX could support DL, UA and AA flying LAX-China in addition to Air China, China Eastern and China Southern. It's too bad that bureaucracy trumps economic realities. Now, it would behoove bureaucrats to offer carriers with the greatest seat offerings access to these heavily restricted markets. That carrier happens to be United, as Delta and American simply cannot offer the amount of capacity that United can bring to the table.


User currently offlineLegacyins From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2145 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (7 years 2 months 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2966 times:

Quoting McMax (Reply 14):
I think DOT reasoned that UA got two of the last three awards (IAD-PEK and LAX-CAN),

They were awarded SFO-CAN, not LAX-CAN.



John@SFO
User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (7 years 2 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 2894 times:

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 13):
United applied, and even suggested using much bigger 747s and didn't get the frequencies... shame really when you consider that Northwest and USAirways got the frequencies.

Agreed

Quoting McMax (Reply 14):
AA, CO, NW and DL, who combined, only had 3 routes between them.

...huh??

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 16):
Northwest had 28 frequencies, 21 passenger and 7 cargo, prior to the latest round of frequency allocations, which they use via Tokyo, which, as I've said before, is a huge misuse of a limited resource. Northwest's application should have been rejected and given to United.

Speak! Speak! *applause*

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 16):
That and the 777 couldn't make it from Dallas to Sydney with any kind of reasonable load.

correction: AA's current 777s


User currently offlineMcMax From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (7 years 2 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 2827 times:

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 23):
Quoting McMax (Reply 14):
AA, CO, NW and DL, who combined, only had 3 routes between them.

...huh??

At the time the most recent awards were handed out for 2009 allocations, AA had 1 route (ORD-PVG), CO had 1 route (EWR-PEK), and DL had 1 route (ATL-PVG).

Quoting Legacyins (Reply 22):
Quoting McMax (Reply 14):
I think DOT reasoned that UA got two of the last three awards (IAD-PEK and LAX-CAN),

They were awarded SFO-CAN, not LAX-CAN.

Sorry, my bad. Typo.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 21):
I'm saying that it is unwise for American to apply for frequencies from LAX if United applying, as it will be a waste of their time. Now if you United doesn't apply, it would make perfect sense for American to apply as they would stand a greater chance of getting the frequency. I would be very surprised if both UA and AA applied for LAX-PVG or LAX-PEK and the DoT awarded them both frequencies.

Point taken that if UA and AA both applied for ex-LAX-China frequencies, UA would have a better chance if they were offering to run the flights with 747s vs. AA's 777. Of course, due to anti-trust concerns, they both can't ask each other what routes they plan on applying for. Given AA's determination to build DFW into a true international hub by adding Asian destinations, I do believe AA will apply for ex-DFW to China before ex-LAX to China. I think it's a mistake, as I've stated before. Right now, for us West Coasters, AA pretty much depends on us to fly JL to NRT and CX to HKG to connect to other destinations in Asia.

That being said, I think UA better start defending its rear flank--with AA's flights ex-ORD to China (PVG and PEK), Asia (NRT) and Europe (including the just-announced DME), UA is going to start losing the battle for the high-dollar value business clients in the Chicagoland area.



De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
25 MAH4546 : There is no such determination. I think it's pretty clear they rather use Chicago as an Asian hub.
26 McMax : I have no reason to doubt you, and of course, this whole thread is based on pure speculation, but why would AA have applied for DFW-PEK and would con
27 MAH4546 : I don't think there is doubt they want to fly a Dallas-China route, I just don't think that equates to wanting to build-up Dallas-Asia service. There
28 Post contains images ElmoTheHobo : Thanks, that's what I meant. That, and ORD-BOM was rumored here awhile back. I'm not too sure United should be all that worried. United has added mor
29 LAXdude1023 : Im not familiar with the APA contract and how easy it is to renegotiate. Is this feasible for the next round of slot allotments? The traffic is there
30 ConcordeBoy : I'm aware, what I was questioning was your inclusion of NW into those figures AA still offers LAX-NRT on its own metal
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