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748 EK Range Requirement  
User currently offlineSCAT15F From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 402 posts, RR: 0
Posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 9373 times:

OK, so EK wants the 748 to fly Dubai-Dallas/FW with 400 passengers and baggage (year round?).

According to the 748i airport compatibility brochure, the 748i (as proposed, without any weight reduction improvements) can fly 400 passengers 8500NM at 210lb per passenger. EK said that before any of the weight reduction strategies, the 748i's range needed to be increased by 500 NM, implying that with Boeings standard load of 467 pax at 210 lb, the range would need to be 8500nm

1) how far in nautical miles is the actual route?

2) what is EK's reference for weight per passenger (including baggage)?

3) Obviously OEW weight needs to be reduced substantially. Would reducing MTOW (like back to 960k lb from 970k lb)help as well?

Why doen't boeing just re-offer the 748i at the original, shorter, 12 ft stretch; since with the upper galley space it could seat 462. I doubt Lufthansa would complain about the loss of 3 seats and a little square footage, especially with improved operating economics.

40 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31436 posts, RR: 85
Reply 1, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 9281 times:
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I doubt EK wants the 747-8I. They could fly the A380-800 to the West Coast of North America at will, and they probably would not need that many empty seats or LD3 positions to do it.

User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2260 posts, RR: 56
Reply 2, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 9150 times:

Quoting SCAT15F (Thread starter):
According to the 748i airport compatibility brochure, the 748i (as proposed, without any weight reduction improvements) can fly 400 passengers 8500NM at 210lb per passenger.

The brochure I'm looking at shows about 8300 nm, not 8500. Are you sure you're looking at the latest (September 2007) ?

Quoting SCAT15F (Thread starter):
how far in nautical miles is the actual route?

The Great Circle Mapper is useful for this kind of question. It says that the shortest path between DXB and DTW is 8040 nm.

Quoting SCAT15F (Thread starter):
Obviously OEW weight needs to be reduced substantially.

To gain an extra 500 nm via weight reduction only, the OEW would need to come down by about 8,000 kg.

Quoting SCAT15F (Thread starter):
Would reducing MTOW (like back to 960k lb from 970k lb)help as well?

No, because that would limit how much fuel you could bring along. Increased MTOW is one way to add range.

Quoting SCAT15F (Thread starter):
with the upper galley space it could seat 462

Galleys in the crown space would not help in any way to achieve weight savings (quite the contrary). Also, I doubt the shorter fuse plug would save anywhere close to 8,000 kg.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
They could fly the A380-800 to the West Coast of North America at will

If they could do that, then DFW would be easily within reach. DFW is closer to DXB than either SFO or LAX. Anyhow, they could start out with the 772LR before working their way up.


User currently offlineDa man From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 887 posts, RR: 12
Reply 3, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 9090 times:

Quoting SCAT15F (Thread starter):
so EK wants the 748 to fly Dubai-Dallas/FW



Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 2):
It says that the shortest path between DXB and DTW is 8040 nm.

Don't you mean DFW, not DTW? Dallas/Fort Worth and Detroit are very different



War Eagle!
User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2260 posts, RR: 56
Reply 4, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 9072 times:

Quoting Da man (Reply 3):
Don't you mean DFW, not DTW? Dallas/Fort Worth and Detroit are very different

Sorry, typo. I meant DFW.


User currently offlineSkyexRamper From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 8894 times:

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 2):
The Great Circle Mapper is useful for this kind of question. It says that the shortest path between DXB and DTW is 8040 nm.

You're wrong.

6987nm DXB to DFW.




It's 8040 statue miles, but 6987 nautical miles

[Edited 2007-10-20 21:30:20]

User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2260 posts, RR: 56
Reply 6, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 8848 times:

Quoting SkyexRamper (Reply 5):
You're wrong.

Thank you, good catch. I was using the wrong miles  embarrassed 

I shall try to get more sleep henceforth  Smile

That sure puts it in a different light, doesn't it?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
They could fly the A380-800 to the West Coast of North America at will, and they probably would not need that many empty seats or LD3 positions to do it.

 checkmark  Now I understand your point. DXB-LAX should be a relative piece of cake for an A388, unless EK loads it down with a hot tub in first  Wink

So I'll join you in wondering why EK would ever need the 748 Intercontinental, other than possibly filling a capacity gap between the 773ER and the A388... and supposing they did need it, why would they lean so hard on Boeing to make an already great plane even better than required?


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21589 posts, RR: 59
Reply 7, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 8760 times:

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 6):
So I'll join you in wondering why EK would ever need the 748 Intercontinental, other than possibly filling a capacity gap between the 773ER and the A388...

The 77L also has more than enough range. And of course, they could have already been flying to LAX with the A345. They talk about how they could easily fill the 748 if they had it, so one can assume they could also fill the 77W and leave behind the lowest yield pax, right?

All it really is a is a lot of hot air from EK saying they would love to fly to more USA cities, but just lack capable aircraft. Of course this is complete bunk, but it plays well for the press.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineFridgmus From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 1442 posts, RR: 11
Reply 8, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 8643 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
I doubt EK wants the 747-8I. They could fly the A380-800 to the West Coast of North America at will, and they probably would not need that many empty seats or LD3 positions to do it.

Stitch,

What are LD3 positions?

Thanks,

Marc



The Lockheed Super Constellation, the REAL Queen of the Skies!
User currently offlineFWI747 From France, joined Jul 2007, 71 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 8466 times:

Quoting SCAT15F (Thread starter):
o EK wants the 748 to fly Dubai-Dallas/FW with 400 passengers and baggage

I've heard EK wants to fly 450 passengers on that trip.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 2):
Quoting SCAT15F (Thread starter):
According to the 748i airport compatibility brochure, the 748i (as proposed, without any weight reduction improvements) can fly 400 passengers 8500NM at 210lb per passenger.

The brochure I'm looking at shows about 8300 nm, not 8500

SCAT15F point was with 400 pax which at 210lb per pax should be doable.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
The Great Circle Mapper is useful for this kind of question. It says that the shortest path between DXB and DTW is 8040 nm.



Quoting SkyexRamper (Reply 5):
It's 8040 statue miles, but 6987 nautical miles

Without adverse winds

Regards


User currently offlineFWI747 From France, joined Jul 2007, 71 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 7439 times:

Quoting FWI747 (Reply 9):
SCAT15F point was with 400 pax which at 210lb per pax should be doable.

I just check back the chart,I must apologize you were right.

David


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31436 posts, RR: 85
Reply 11, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 7221 times:
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Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 6):
So I'll join you in wondering why EK would ever need the 748 Intercontinental, other than possibly filling a capacity gap between the 773ER and the A388... and supposing they did need it, why would they lean so hard on Boeing to make an already great plane even better than required?

Honestly, at this point I would not be surprised if EK is using the 747-8I against the A350-1000 (which itself cannot fly as far as the 747-8I), as part of a likely initial A350 family order next month. They would love to have a 787-10 in the mix to beat Airbus down on the price of the A350-900, but I admit to being surprised EK is not constantly talking about a couple dozen additional 77Ls for that purpose, instead.

Quoting Fridgmus (Reply 8):
What are LD3 positions?

LD3 containers are used to hold bags and other cargo in the cargo bay. So each "position" can hold one LD3 container and an A380-800 has 38 positions (to the 747-8I's 40).


User currently offlineDouwd20 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 131 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 7016 times:

How much of this is real and how much of this is making sure they get the best deal out of Airbus is the question. British Airways was one of the airlines urging Boeing to move forward with the 748i and in the end said 'Never mind'. No buyer wants just one offer on the table.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31436 posts, RR: 85
Reply 13, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 6765 times:
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Quoting Douwd20 (Reply 12):
How much of this is real and how much of this is making sure they get the best deal out of Airbus is the question.

I believe it is pretty much all about getting the best deal out of Airbus.

The "Joker in the Deck" remains LH. I can't believe they decided on their own - or conspired with Boeing - to "fake" an order to give the 747-8I more "street cred" as a weapon to lower the average price paid for an A380. However, considering just about everyone else in the industry is choosing the A380 - and the fact LH has standardized on Airbus - I remain surprised they bought the plane in the first place and even more surprised they continue to keep the order since the longer they wait, the more it will cost them to get out from under it (if they so choose). On the flip side, Boeing might very well buy LH out from the contract, but I expect 20 planes is enough to cover the development costs unique to the 747-8I and the mere existence of the plane continues to depress the RoI potential of the A380 program.


User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2260 posts, RR: 56
Reply 14, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 6296 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
I remain surprised they bought the plane in the first place and even more surprised they continue to keep the order since the longer they wait, the more it will cost them to get out from under it (if they so choose).

Depending on how things pan out in the next few months, Airbus probably has a pretty strong interest in "paying" LH (in the form of discounted A380 option conversions) to convert their order to the 748F. That would restore their pricing power in the passenger segment.


User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12181 posts, RR: 51
Reply 15, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5807 times:

Quoting FWI747 (Reply 9):
Quoting SCAT15F (Thread starter):
o EK wants the 748 to fly Dubai-Dallas/FW with 400 passengers and baggage

I've heard EK wants to fly 450 passengers on that trip.

EK wants to fly to IAH, not DFW.

Quoting SkyexRamper (Reply 5):
Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 2):
The Great Circle Mapper is useful for this kind of question. It says that the shortest path between DXB and DTW is 8040 nm.

You're wrong.

6987nm DXB to DFW.

That is correct, and DXB-LAX is 7246nm, well within the range of the B-747-8i and A-380 (8300nm for the B-747-8, 8200nm for the A-380-800) now.


User currently offlineTdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80
Reply 16, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5735 times:

Quoting Fridgmus (Reply 8):

What are LD3 positions?

Those are the number and location of spots where you can fit an LD3 cargo container.

For the dimensions and uses of all the LD-x containers, wikipedia has a pretty good page:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_Load_Device

For examples of LD3 positions, check out pages 8 and 9 of this PDF:
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/airports/acaps/7478brochure.pdf

All those "half-width" containers in the aft cargo bay are LD3 positions.

Tom.


User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13551 posts, RR: 100
Reply 17, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 5630 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
They could fly the A380-800 to the West Coast of North America at will,

With winds, only SFO is possible with the A380 (I assume SEA will not upgrade to handle the A380). If only LAX was within range.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 2):

If they could do that, then DFW would be easily within reach. DFW is closer to DXB than either SFO or LAX. Anyhow, they could start out with the 772LR before working their way up.

I'm confused on the talk about DFW. Is there a link? With service already existing to IAH, is it worth it to open up such a nearby route? I would prioritize as follows:
1. West coast city (SEA, SFO, LAX. In that order due to the ranges and the fact it looks like LAX is *just* outside of A380 range once winds are considered). SFO will be... iffy with the A380 unless fuel burn is much better than the current promise (tough with the added weight). And since SEA isn't built to take the A380... that leaves the 772LR/748I.
2. More east coast cities: MIA, IAD. MIA would help seed south American routes.
3. Midwest hub: ORD, DTW (2nd due to large Muslim population).

In other words, I see a 748I fleet for EK being a very small sub-fleet. A subfleet that could be killed off if airbus to increase production fast and get the A388R out yesterday. But since that won't be happening, expect to see EK seriously consider the 748I. It will all be about payload/range and purchase price; I believe the 748I is attractive to EK only if they can depreciate it quickly (I admit to "shooting from the hip" on this). That said, with EK already having 748F on order, the cost to add the 748I to the fleet is trivial (there is still some added cost due to f/a training, etc.).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
On the flip side, Boeing might very well buy LH out from the contract, but I expect 20 planes is enough to cover the development costs

You're neglecting the value of earlier delivery slots. As the launch customer for the 748I, LH will receive pretty much the best delivery timeframe that Boeing can offer. I believe this is one reason EK is looking into the 748I. Due to the vast majority of the engineering on the 747 being amortized a long time ago, Boeing should be able to offer 748I's at prices that are attractive to those airlines that historically depreciate their aircraft quickly. I expect *every* LH and EK 748I to be either sold off or a freighter by 2025.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31436 posts, RR: 85
Reply 18, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 5407 times:
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Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 17):
With winds, only SFO is possible with the A380 (I assume SEA will not upgrade to handle the A380). If only LAX was within range.

At full load, yes. Then again, I am not sure how "minimal" EK's lowest-density three-class config will be in terms of range, so maybe not even then.

Also, I doubt EK will be able to get 450 seats into a 747-8I if the lowest-density A388 is around 465 seats unless they go with an inferior premium cabin that takes up less floorspace and I don't think EK is going to want to do that.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 17):
You're neglecting the value of earlier delivery slots. As the launch customer for the 748I, LH will receive pretty much the best delivery timeframe that Boeing can offer. I believe this is one reason EK is looking into the 748I. Due to the vast majority of the engineering on the 747 being amortized a long time ago, Boeing should be able to offer 748I's at prices that are attractive to those airlines that historically depreciate their aircraft quickly. I expect *every* LH and EK 748I to be either sold off or a freighter by 2025.

Fair enough. It does seem Boeing is only willing to go "so low" on the 747-8I and will not deliberately sign a deal below cost* to win an order. And while such a situation would normally favor an SQ 747-8I order, that they get the first five (more or less) A388s probably negates the depreciation advantage a bit.


* - Despite rumors to the contrary, I have it on good authorities that LH's discount was around 45%, which is "normal" for a 747 passenger or freighter model these past few years.


User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2260 posts, RR: 56
Reply 19, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 4380 times:

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 17):
With winds, only SFO is possible

I've always wondered why polar routes suffer from winds? Jet streams flow eastward, and DXB-SFO is always either due north or due south. The wind situation ought to be benign-- or isn't it?

(is there a good reference out there on statistical wind averages?)


User currently offlineTdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80
Reply 20, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 4114 times:

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 17):
(I assume SEA will not upgrade to handle the A380)

That is their official position at the moment, so A380's are limited to LAX, SFO, and YVR on the West Coast. Might change if a significant customer demands it but, given the difficult SEA had getting the third runway put in, I imagine any further infrastructure upgrade is going to be a long time coming.

Tom.


User currently offlineSkyexRamper From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 8 hours ago) and read 3758 times:

Quoting FWI747 (Reply 9):
Without adverse winds

How do winds effect a straight line distance as a number?


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31436 posts, RR: 85
Reply 22, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 3551 times:
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While I do not expect SEA to add dual-level jetbridges and such, I imagine you could park an A380 at the South Satellite.

However, I don't see enough O&D demand between SEA and anywhere to support an A380. Heck, we don't even justify 747 service anymore outside of BA.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21589 posts, RR: 59
Reply 23, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 3501 times:

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 20):
That is their official position at the moment, so A380's are limited to LAX, SFO, and YVR on the West Coast.

And ONT and SMF, IIRC. Not that you'll see them there.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineTdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80
Reply 24, posted (7 years 2 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 3335 times:

Quoting SkyexRamper (Reply 21):
How do winds effect a straight line distance as a number?

Winds don't affect the true distance, but they do affect the distance the aircraft has to fly relative to the air around it. Payload-range charts are distance in terms of what the aircraft has to fly, not physical distance from A to B, so winds will alter what routes the aircraft can actually do.

Tom.


25 SunriseValley : An article in 2001 Aircraft Commerce magazine included a table with ESAD's for a number of city pairs. One pair was JFK-HKG which is trans-polar. The
26 ER757 : You probably could, but it's more to do with the taxiways and other infrastruture allowing the beast to maneuver. SEA isn't ready and for at theast t
27 Ken777 : I haven't been able to understand about EK preferring the "short" 748i over the fully stretched version. EK can put the lower number of seats they pl
28 Revelation : I suppose, if one does not consider the 30 747-400s they operate. They have five 747-8i to build for various VIP customers too.
29 RedFlyer : Wouldn't there be a need for an aircraft with less than the capacity of the A380 to fly to the West Coast on certain routes? The 777 is capable but t
30 Stitch : And 189 Airbus planes (including those on order to replace the 737 fleet). I wonder if Boeing could use the freighter, since the cabin would be fitte
31 SunriseValley : The DXD-JFK is a trans-polar route and probably the characteristics of the JFK-HKG route apply fairly closely since the initial headings are pretty c
32 RedFlyer : What I'm saying is that Boeing was hunting for a launch customer last year. And perhaps they were a little more anxious than normal when looking for
33 KC135TopBoom : No, NH has not ordered any A-380s, they are in talks with Airbus, just as they are talking to Boeing about the B-747-8i. There are still plenty of air
34 Post contains images Lightsaber : Interesting idea. The nose door can be cheaply disabled (and later re-enabled). The only real penalty would be the added weight of the cargo floor re
35 Post contains images Stitch : Sounds most interesting. I look forward to it either happening or, should it not happen, the NDA expiring so we can know "what might have been".
36 Post contains images WingedMigrator : Would this possibly involve a "laser" ?
37 Stitch : And would it cost $100 billion dollars?
38 Lightsaber : With my username? Obviously not. ... ... Lightsaber
39 Ikramerica : NH is doing it backward. The RFP comes in 12-24 months, but the planes are already ordered. That's the "rumors" around a.net, since the news reports
40 SkyyMaster : Granted, Emirates has deep pockets and no doubt aspirations of being the world's largest carrier someday. It would just be nice to see Airbus AND Boe
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