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Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market  
User currently offlineSpencerII From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 4130 times:

OK--It appears as though GO! is considering starting some mainland to Hawaii low fare service from mainland Coastal markets utliizing the services of Ryan Intenational kind of as a contract carrier. As this progresses I'm sure the likes of AQ and HA may have some cncerns about it. (i think AirTran did something like this when they started services from ATL to Los Angeles & Las Vegas)

23 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5592 posts, RR: 12
Reply 1, posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 4079 times:

Mainland-Hawaii LCC experiments in the past have been many and have all ended badly for the cx involved; the markets are usually considered low yield at reasonable fare levels and undoable at cut-rate levels. Sounds like "Skybus with (plastic) leis" to me, and that sounds like failure...

Not completely surprising (given GO!'s history in the Islands) but still a waste of effort and resources, IMHO.

bb


User currently offlineAirframeAS From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 14150 posts, RR: 24
Reply 2, posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 4046 times:

With what? A CRJ900?! Is JO that insane?!


A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
User currently offline777ER From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 12334 posts, RR: 18
Reply 3, posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 4028 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 2):

Ryan International have B737-200, -300, -400, -800, B757ERs and MD80s

[Edited 2007-10-22 00:00:43]

User currently offlineAirframeAS From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 14150 posts, RR: 24
Reply 4, posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 4002 times:

Quoting 777ER (Reply 3):
Ryan International have B737-200, -300, -400, and MD80s

I doubt those can make the trip to mainland to HNL to mainland. But has it ever been done on a fully loaded aircraft? I have never heard of it being done.

Quoting 777ER (Reply 3):
...-800, B757ERs...

 checkmark  Those can, for sure.



A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
User currently offlineSkyguyB727 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3965 times:

I remember a carrier in the mid-1980s called The Hawaii Express (LP). They flew 747s from LAX (and SFO I think) to HNL. They lasted only a very short time.

User currently offlineSpencerII From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 3864 times:

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 2):
With what? A CRJ900?! Is JO that insane?!

While JO might be a little on the eccentric side, Ryan International definietely has the equipment to do this.
check out..



then again, will he be able to fill them?


User currently offlineUnitedTristar From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 3846 times:

Quoting SpencerII (Thread starter):
OK--It appears as though GO! is considering starting some mainland to Hawaii low fare service from mainland Coastal markets utliizing the services of Ryan Intenational kind of as a contract carrier.

It simply wont happen. The UA contract says that any carrier owned by YV cannot open competing routes under their own banner competing with UA. This is the reason, I believe, that UA couldn't merge AQ operations under their own name, because of the above clause. YV already had opened Go!

-m

 airplane 


User currently offlineSpencerII From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 3834 times:

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 7):
It simply wont happen. The UA contract says that any carrier owned by YV cannot open competing routes under their own banner competing with UA. This is the reason, I believe, that UA couldn't merge AQ operations under their own name, because of the above clause. YV already had opened Go!

but I don't think UA has any flights between OAK SJC SAN ONT SEA or PDX to points in Hawaii. West Coast cities comprise a lot of different options.

[Edited 2007-10-22 05:36:53]

User currently offlineUnited_Fan From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 7540 posts, RR: 7
Reply 9, posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3736 times:

Quoting SpencerII (Reply 8):
but I don't think UA has any flights between OAK SJC SAN ONT SEA or PDX to points in Hawaii. West Coast cities comprise a lot of different options.

I believe UA has Sat only service from SEA and SAN to Hawaii.



'Empathy was yesterday...Today, you're wasting my Mother-F'ing time' - Heat.
User currently offlineAS739X From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 6194 posts, RR: 24
Reply 10, posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 3595 times:

Quoting SpencerII (Reply 8):

United does seasonal SEA/SAN-HNL

ASSFO



"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently offlineSQ_EK_freak From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2000, 1642 posts, RR: 20
Reply 11, posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3517 times:

ONT might be an interesting option, as much of the Inland Empire utilizes this aiport for their travels, given that is much more stress free than LAX, and with regards to Hawaii flights, ATA does them and to my knowledge, are highly successful.


Keep Discovering
User currently offlineAS739X From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 6194 posts, RR: 24
Reply 12, posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3380 times:

Quoting SQ_EK_freak (Reply 11):

ATA in fact serves ONT-Hawaii with success. But they also get feed from a little ole carrier named Southwest. Mesa is getting in over its head if they do this. IMO

ASSFO



"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently offlineFreshlove1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (7 years 1 month 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 3302 times:

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 7):
It simply wont happen. The UA contract says that any carrier owned by YV cannot open competing routes under their own banner competing with UA. This is the reason, I believe, that UA couldn't merge AQ operations under their own name, because of the above clause. YV already had opened Go!

This is also one of the reasons YV dropped the Frontier Jet Express flying and stuck with UA. It had something to do with the contract/routes/etc.. Yeah YV could have stuck with F9 and let UA go but money wise it was better to drop F9 and keep UA.


User currently offlineUnitedTristar From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 2974 times:

Quoting SpencerII (Reply 8):
but I don't think UA has any flights between OAK SJC SAN ONT SEA or PDX to points in Hawaii. West Coast cities comprise a lot of different options.

But the thing about it is, I don't think that the contract differentiates the between Nonstop, One Stop or Connection. So no markets can be opened to the mainland unless its a station UA does not service at all. Go! operates interisland where UA does not even publish fares. But once they start going where UA publishes a schedule they are in trouble.

-m



[Edited 2007-10-23 04:53:30]

User currently offlineImapilotaz From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2933 times:

The contract has nothing to do with "any carrier that YV owns", it only deals with YV. Mesa Air Group is a completely separate company that owns 3 airlines, and go! could very easily be folded into Freedom, and with a little more difficulty into Air Midwest. Also, keep in mind that Mesa would be having Ryan International operating the flights for go!, which would also not be operated by Mesa Airlines, and therefore not a problem. These rules are why Mesa no longer flies PHX-DEN for UA as they did 2+ years ago, as they fly PHX-DEN for HP/US. This is also why most holding companies own 2-3 carriers so they can continue operating for multiple carriers.

In the end, there is not much of a chance of this. It is much more likely that a deal will be struck between AQ and go! that would combine the carriers. With a potentially large (20-30M) judgement from HA coming, and a potentially 2-3x that amount for AQ, MAG wont be wasting any of its limited cash reserves. A $20M judgement to HA and $40M judgement to AQ will likely push MAG into bankruptcy. That would be horriffic to its employees, as the power that be in MAG have made it clear that there is no loyalty to employees and they would force immediate 20-30% pay cuts. This would, however, be the only way to clean up many messy contracts that will likely plague the company forever. The attrition at MAG has greatly picked up in the last 6 months, and something like that would just worsen the situation at Corporate.


User currently offlineItsnotfinals From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2920 times:

the only question is will YV have any money left after the lawsuit finishes and will they be barred for 1 year in Hawai'i?

Although the HA suit is for 175 Million , YV is already saying through their lawyers that the damage should only be 6 Million or so. If YV was truly innocent then their lawyers wouldn't be talking about a settlement already.


It's also hard to negoitiate wet leases when your CFO is on leave for erasing porn  Smile


User currently offlineFreshlove1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 2792 times:

Quoting Imapilotaz (Reply 15):
A $20M judgement to HA and $40M judgement to AQ will likely push MAG into bankruptcy.

Really with over 100 mil in the bank how do you come up with this?


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25687 posts, RR: 85
Reply 18, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 2735 times:
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Quoting Freshlove1 (Reply 13):
. Yeah YV could have stuck with F9 and let UA go but money wise it was better to drop F9 and keep UA.

For which Frontier is extremely grateful.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineSpencerII From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 2720 times:

Quoting Imapilotaz (Reply 15):
A $20M judgement to HA and $40M judgement to AQ will likely push MAG into bankruptcy. That would be horriffic to its employees, as the power that be

Not to worry, as most companies with the breadth of Mesa would certainly have insurance to cover any judgement that may come up.


User currently offlineItsnotfinals From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 2698 times:

Quoting SpencerII (Reply 19):
Not to worry, as most companies with the breadth of Mesa would certainly have insurance to cover any judgement that may come up.

but the increased premiums REALLY hurt  Smile


User currently offlineFloridaflyboy From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 2018 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 2672 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 18):
For which Frontier is extremely grateful.

And, for that matter, all of us who fly frontier  Smile



Good goes around!
User currently offlineAirframeAS From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 14150 posts, RR: 24
Reply 22, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 2571 times:

Quoting SpencerII (Reply 6):
Ryan International definietely has the equipment to do this.

With a 738 and a 752, yes. But the other aircraft they have, I don't think so.

If Ryan International were hired by GO!, then they may have to devote their entire 'long haul' fleet on this venture. Its a huge risk, IMO.

Quoting Floridaflyboy (Reply 21):
Quoting Mariner (Reply 18):
For which Frontier is extremely grateful.

And, for that matter, all of us who fly frontier  Smile

And, I for one, am very excited that I will be doing my first flight with them next month!  bouncy 



A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
User currently offlineImapilotaz From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2501 times:

Pretty easy, Mesa's operation is cash flow negative. They have gone from nearly $300M in cash on hand 3+ years ago to now less than $200 according to their last Q. Most airlines are cash positive when they lose money, somehow Mesa is cashflow negative when they made money.

Also, remember, the only reason why they even have that much cash is because they had 2x $100M bond offerings. They owe more on those bonds than they have in cash. That is the reason why Bankruptcy is likely if they are forced to pay out $50M+ in judgments to HA/AQ. The other problem with Mesa is that their aircraft are getting older, which means more maintenance costs. They have NO new contracts that reflect that reality, and it means that every single year that goes by, their costs will rise, and their margins decrease. Really bad combination when tied to a cash flow negative corporation.


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