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Cathay: No Plans For 787 Or A380 For Near Future  
User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 15470 times:

Quote:
NEW YORK — Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. has no plans to buy either of the leading aircraft makers' newest models in the near future, the carrier's chief executive said Tuesday.

Hong Kong's flagship airline is in talks with both Airbus and Boeing about possible aircraft orders regarding a "business as usual" fleet expansion, Chief Executive Tony Tyler said in an interview with The Associated Press.

But the carrier is likely to stick with plane types it already operates, he said, rather than follow Asian competitors with orders for two high-profile models scheduled for widespread delivery: the Boeing 787 Dreamliner or the double-decker Airbus A380 superjumbo.

"We are not in the market for any of the new aircraft at the moment," Tyler said during a visit here to promote expanded North American service to Hong Kong.


http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/5258373.html

Confirms what many of us thought, this airline wont be placing a big order anytime soon.

64 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineKL808 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1585 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 15452 times:

In some ways this might be good news for Boeing.

They might order more B77W's

Drew



AMS-LAX-MNL
User currently offlineDellatorre From Brazil, joined May 2000, 1088 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 15120 times:

Quoting EI321 (Thread starter):
Confirms what many of us thought, this airline wont be placing a big order anytime soon.

Depends on what you define near future!!!! If that is the next couple of years, then I would agree. Otherwise, can't see how CX will seat and watch the A380s flying by HKG, not whishing to join the party!!!


User currently offlineEbbUK From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 15104 times:

Me thinks CX is still in Hong Kong Flu mode.

At some point they will purchase. Will it be too late?


User currently offlineBennett123 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2004, 7813 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 15107 times:

Given that they operate A330, A340,B747,B777 they have plenty of options.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31431 posts, RR: 85
Reply 5, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 15085 times:
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If I was CX, I'd wait for the A388R. That way, you're good across the Pacific and across the European and Asian continents from HKG 24x7, 365-days a year, in both directions, at max payload.

User currently offlineKELPkid From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 6428 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 15064 times:

I'm sure that neither Boeing nor Airbus wanted to hear this...surely there are some dissapointed sales staff in the large aircraft divisions at both manufactuers  Sad


Celebrating the birth of KELPkidJR on August 5, 2009 :-)
User currently offlinePanAm747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4242 posts, RR: 8
Reply 7, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 15061 times:

Question: What routes does CX serve that would qualify as "long-thin"? The 787 might open some routes for CX, but I can't think of any offhand that are needed from HKG.

While we're at it, is there any route that CX really needs an A380 for? Keep capacity high and tight, rather than flooding the market...I think they've got the right idea.



Pan Am:The World's Most Experienced Airline - P(oor) S(ailor's) A(irline): San Diego's Hometown Airline-Catch Our Smile!
User currently offlineA388 From Netherlands Antilles, joined May 2001, 10008 posts, RR: 15
Reply 8, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14905 times:

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 7):
Question: What routes does CX serve that would qualify as "long-thin"? The 787 might open some routes for CX, but I can't think of any offhand that are needed from HKG.

While we're at it, is there any route that CX really needs an A380 for? Keep capacity high and tight, rather than flooding the market...I think they've got the right idea.

Agreed. I take it that CX knows what they are doing. They know something we don't know apparently.

A388


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14859 times:

Quoting A388 (Reply 8):

Agreed. I take it that CX knows what they are doing. They know something we don't know apparently.

..imagine if this was an A388 instead of a B744 flying in parallel @ SFO... bigthumbsup 


Shot at 2006-09-29

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 7):
While we're at it, is there any route that CX really needs an A380 for? Keep capacity high and tight, rather than flooding the market...I think they've got the right idea.

....there are already problems ..for example, with O8 coming into the Hong Kong - London and Hong Kong - Vancouver route, CX has had to slash fares by almost 1/2.. Wow!

"The budget airline has shaken up the Hong Kong aviation market, prompting traditional carriers to cut their fares. Cathay Pacific, for example, has slashed its prices to London and Vancouver by nearly half."

http://english.pravda.ru/news/world/26-10-2007/99634-HK_Oasis-0



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2259 posts, RR: 56
Reply 10, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14823 times:

More detail from Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/tnBas...ndustries-SP/idUSN3022007420071030

What I don't get is these two contradictory quotes from CEO Tony Tyler:

Quote:
All our financial modeling shows that we are better off offering more frequency with a very efficient aircraft like the 777 than simply adding more capacity to an existing frequency, which is what we would be doing if we introduced the A380

And then:

Quote:
Despite his caution over the A380, Tyler said that if Airbus stretched the plane to fit more passengers, or increased its take-off weight to extend its range, Cathay might buy.

"Either of those options would make it more economic and more competitive from our point of view," said Tyler, who wants a bigger plane which can carry more cargo and is more suited to very long trans-Pacific routes.

So let me get this right... the A388 is too big, but the A389 is an attractive possibility?!?  scratchchin 


User currently offlineAerokiwi From New Zealand, joined Jul 2000, 2747 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14788 times:

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 3):
At some point they will purchase. Will it be too late?

Too late? For what? As already mentioned, CX is facing some competitive pressures from the arrival of Oasis and Air NZ on the London route alone. Throw in BA, Virgin and QF and that's an awful lot of capacity (all 744s bar VS's A346) on the HKG-LON route alone. That's 6 airlines! surely making it one of the more competitive routes in the world. And while QF and BA are likely to send the A380 to HKG, it might even become a selling point for CX to sell its smaller planes as time savers for passenger processing at either end (checkin, luggage colelction etc).

With Oasis expanding, there are likely going to be 3 carriers on several long haul routes to/from Hong Kong in the near term. So this seems emminently sensible to me. Plus the A330s are doing their job very well for CX, so why not keep them onboard for as long as possible?

One thing though, as the article states that they will likely stick to aircraft types that they are operating NOW, does this include the 747, meaning a hint at a 748i order? Stretching it maybe, but ooooo how I hope!


User currently offlineDL767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 14646 times:

It seems like a good idea for them to wait, they have a relatively young fleet and they might as well sit back, make more money, and order the 787-10 or something, wait until the planes are proven, there is no rush since neither planes will be delivered until around 2015. I do wonder if they are looking at the 748 though.

User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12597 posts, RR: 34
Reply 13, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 14556 times:

I am surprised at this, because I had thought that CX was looking at replacements for its A330/A340 and 772 fleets and that a decision was due sometime next year. I'm nearly sure Tyler said that sometime last year or earlier this year.

Still, as said above, this doesn't rule out more 77Ws.

I guess more time is actually in both manufacturers' interests in some way, in that it gives Airbus more time to freeze the A350 design and Boeing more time to define/launch the 787-10.

Can we now count CX as a potential A389 customer?

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 7):
While we're at it, is there any route that CX really needs an A380 for?

I would say there are quite a few - SFO, LHR, LAX, JFK, Asian regional routes too. Remember that HKG is probably the region's premier hub, so the acquisition of the A380 would allow them to increase traffic through it.


User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3398 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 14230 times:

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 10):
What I don't get is these two contradictory quotes from CEO Tony Tyler:

Quote:
All our financial modeling shows that we are better off offering more frequency with a very efficient aircraft like the 777 than simply adding more capacity to an existing frequency, which is what we would be doing if we introduced the A380

And then:

Quote:
Despite his caution over the A380, Tyler said that if Airbus stretched the plane to fit more passengers, or increased its take-off weight to extend its range, Cathay might buy.

"Either of those options would make it more economic and more competitive from our point of view," said Tyler, who wants a bigger plane which can carry more cargo and is more suited to very long trans-Pacific routes.

So let me get this right... the A388 is too big, but the A389 is an attractive possibility?!?

Could it be that Tyler thinks the present A380 needs a reduction in CASM to justify the reduction in frequency that using a larger aircraft entails?


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3403 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 14191 times:

Quoting Art (Reply 14):
Could it be that Tyler thinks the present A380 needs a reduction in CASM to justify the reduction in frequency that using a larger aircraft entails?

It could be but the A388 has the best CASM of any plane in service at the moment. I guess what this means is that the extra cost of replacing 744s with A388s wouldn't be out-weighed by the savings made (yet). I see a few more T7s and S330s being ordered


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 14029 times:

Maybe Tony thinks he can't get them anyway before 2012-2014 in sizeable numbers so lets go for the improved mark II.

The market probably has grown by then, 5% per year until 2015 = ..


User currently offlineAbba From Denmark, joined Jun 2005, 1385 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 13969 times:

I also think that CX do not want to get planes that are not fully proven in revenue operations. They had quite some problems with the A330 engines and (as I remember) also some problems with their early 777 operations. The history of their A346 is also well known. I think that they want to see both the 380 as well as the 787 and 350 working reliably in service before they want to get in the market themselves!


Abba


User currently offlinePEET7G From Hungary, joined Jan 2007, 695 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 13865 times:

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 10):
So let me get this right... the A388 is too big, but the A389 is an attractive possibility?!?

He does have a point... despite all the words on that the A380 has the lowest CASM and it is a people mover, what many forget is that it is not that much better to justify giving up on the revenue of carrying cargo and the benefits of offering high paying passengers the benefits of frequency. It is a gr8 aircraft and possibly a good people mover, but there are many mission profiles that simply does not justify buying it.... however a A389 could further reduce CASM to a point where it is a done deal.

Quoting Art (Reply 14):
Could it be that Tyler thinks the present A380 needs a reduction in CASM to justify the reduction in frequency that using a larger aircraft entails?

 checkmark  exactly what I was thinking when reading his comments....



Peet7G
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31431 posts, RR: 85
Reply 19, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 13764 times:
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Quoting Kaitak (Reply 13):
Can we now count CX as a potential A389 customer?

I think CX would find an A388R to be a more effective model then the A389.


User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 12768 times:

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 7):
What routes does CX serve that would qualify as "long-thin"?

I'd say the question would be more along the lines of what routes do they not serve which could qualify as such.

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 15):
the A388 has the best CASM of any plane in service at the moment.

In theory, but that has yet to be operationally verified.


User currently offlineReggaebird From Jamaica, joined Nov 1999, 1176 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 11466 times:

I think that this messaging is codespeak for "....we are looking at the A350 and the B747-8i, both of which are going through further design updates.

Reggaebird


User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2610 posts, RR: 7
Reply 22, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 10924 times:

Quoting Aerokiwi (Reply 11):
One thing though, as the article states that they will likely stick to aircraft types that they are operating NOW, does this include the 747, meaning a hint at a 748i order?

I was wondering the same thing. I think it would be a good fit for CX. We can hope, can't we?  crossfingers 

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 6):
I'm sure that neither Boeing nor Airbus wanted to hear this

True, but it would seem that CX will still be looking to purchase exisiting models so the T7 and the A330 still have a shot.
I just don't think they'll go for more A340's though. Nothing but a gut feeling to base this assumption on.


User currently offlineTonforty From United Kingdom, joined May 2006, 69 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 10806 times:

It may be a shrewd decision by CX. Their fleet is young enough to wait a bit and make sure any teething issues with the new aircraft are ironed out in the first few years. It may be that the a350 is the one that would fit their needs best and if that is the case, they probably want to wait until the design is frozen, maybe until it flies, maybe even until it proves itself in service with other airlines.

User currently offlineCtang From Australia, joined Jul 2001, 139 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (7 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 10542 times:

I think CX is just being responsible to its shareholders. Unlike EK, SQ, TG, Cathay is a public company. They would rather order aircraft like 330 and 777 which are already proven by CX.

They are focusing on frequency.


25 Post contains images A388 : Hwy Jacob, my KL 777 man over in SFO!!! LOL How are you doing? I see your collection of aircraft photos is increasing here in the forum, but still no
26 OldAeroGuy : Their purchase of the 773ER in 2005 should give your gut a pretty good indication on CX's future A340 buys.
27 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...Hey A388... at my aircraft photo collection growing..mate, its EVER-growing.. I figured you would like the parallel approach at SFO... ..and yes,
28 Post contains links RedChili : ATW has a few Tyler quotes today. Some quotes from the article: http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=10703 The 748 isn't even mentioned as
29 Abba : And they have a bad habit of running their equipment completely down before they ever consider replacing it. The number of issues they had on their 7
30 Stitch : I would not be surprised if CX is no longer looking seriously at the 747-8I, except to negotiate a better price out of Airbus for the A380-800 and/or
31 RayChuang : I do think CX might be looking for a good deal on 12-14 A380-800's powered by Trent 970 engines. They'll need it, especially on the routes from HKG to
32 Jacobin777 : .. ..is that why they've had to cut fares by almost 1/2 to said destinations?
33 Abba : Their prizes were possibly over prized to begin with (that is - prizes that few - if any - paid anyway). That seems to be a certain - at least Asian
34 Jacobin777 : ..anytime a company has to cut ticket prices by 1/2 isn't going to be good..regardless if it was overpriced to begin with..as that only decreases the
35 Jfk777 : I can imagine Cathay not wanting then 787 or the A380 today, but when BA, Singapore, Lufthansa, Air France, Qantas and Virgin start flying the A380 to
36 Abba : Well - if the prizes that they are talking about are prizes they (almost) never charge in reality the entire exercise is rather theoretical - don't y
37 RayChuang : SQ will fly the A380 to Hong Kong first, as part of the SQ 001/002 route (SIN to SFO via HKG). I think CX might be watching how well SQ does with the
38 Jacobin777 : ..actually not as they are usually projected into calculations...its not an infinite amount..it has to be a finite amount i.e.-amount of what the maj
39 Abba : Having lived in HK for quite some time I guess it it mostly hot air from CX. List prizes getting closer to actual sales prizes. I can't say for sure
40 Bill142 : Not really. The potential for orders of other types is still there. SQ is listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange,
41 United Airline : Just because they don't mention the B 747-8 doesn't mean that they won't order it. I suppose they will order 20-25 B 747-8 eventually. And maybe even
42 Post contains links Keesje : Loyal Boeing / 747 customers Qantas and Singapore Airlines loudly told the world they think the 747-8 is not up to par. Recently BA also skipped the
43 Stitch : Honestly? Yes it does. No major airline with a choice (and I don't think LH has a choice) is reasonably going to choose the 747-8I over the A380-800.
44 PVG : I would imagine that with the cost advantages that Boeing enjoys in this segment and USD/EUR exchange situation, that they should be able to make "an
45 Stitch : Airbus appears to be willing to discount lower then Boeing, since nobody but LH has yet chosen Boeing on any RFP between the 747-8I and the A380-800.
46 PVG : How can they afford to do that? With the extra costs of the 2 year delay and the EUR/USD exchange rate issue, how can they possibly afford to do that
47 Abba : Why do you think that LH has no choice but to order the 748 (people usually say that they had no choice in getting the 388)? You should not overstate
48 Stitch : Because Airbus is building future business. Every A388 they can place now with a customer makes it more likely that customer will choose the A388 lat
49 PVG : Probably 40-60% of Airbus's costs are in Euro. It's got to be hurting. I'm guessing that most if not all of Boeings' purchase arrangements are in fix
50 Post contains images Mir : I think it's only a matter of time before we see a 380 in CX colors. I've thought of routes like HKG-IAD and HKG-EDI as routes that CX could use a 78
51 Stitch : The Airbus Group's margins show they're in the business of making profits. I believe the A380-800 is winning orders because, at worse, it's no more e
52 Abba : And with the given USD/Euro exchange rate what do you think will happen when these contracts are to be re-negotiated? And what will the overall impac
53 PVG : OK. So, if Boeing discounts the 747-8I below A380, they should be able to attract orders as they are substantially equal, but A380 gives you slight m
54 Art : OK. Airbus is better hedged against currency movements than Boeing. But so long as the dollar declines in value against the euro, this is a disadvant
55 Stitch : Yes, but Boeing does not appear to be willing to do so. And the reason for this is likely because they could sell a freighter to fill that production
56 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ..I posted this concept on the other thread (no in so direct words), however people don't want to believe the truth or don't care about the truth..at
57 Abba : Then you must p** even more - and more often each time - as your previous p** cools you even more!
58 Post contains links and images Keesje : The A380 order book has grown steadily and constantly, including a string of flag carriers, suprize orders, and repeat orders. http://en.wikipedia.org
59 PVG : Not according to this: Implications: Trying to draw the sting out of its November 8th 3Q07 results, EADS today announced further problems with its mi
60 Ikramerica : After they already committed to the A380 5 years earlier as the future of their fleet. It's called supporting your decision after the fact. Notice ho
61 Zeke : The three airlines you mentioned all have put in further orders for the A380, even when the 748i was available and Boeing had made the frequent sales
62 Post contains links Zeke : from http://www.abcmoney.co.uk/news/262007171134.htm "FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - Cathay Pacific Airways for the time being does not plan to order
63 Kaitak : Quite understandable, I think. I see the A380 having a role in CX's fleet, but after previous experiences with Airbus acft (the A346), they will expec
64 CHRISBA777ER : Agreed. I am not convinced we'll see a A388 though. More like an A389. Washington I could see - agreed. I think other destinations would be MAN, MUC,
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