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JAX-LAX On DL Cancelled?  
User currently offlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6570 posts, RR: 50
Posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 5538 times:

I see that the nonstop DL873 JAX-LAX ends on 02Jan. I do not see it returning in future schedules. I guess the loads weren't there to justify a 738 on the route.

Also, RDU/CMH/BDL-LAX get cut to 4x weekly service from 03Jan to 11Feb, which is generally a pretty slow travel period.

50 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMcamargo From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 129 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 5509 times:

Did DL over-estimate the potential of an LAX hub perhaps?
They seem to have cut a few routes, can't remember them off the top of my head right now.



I live for the day mainline returns to BRO...
User currently offlineATLAaron From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 1023 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 5420 times:
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Quoting MSYtristar (Thread starter):
Also, RDU/CMH/BDL-LAX get cut to 4x weekly service from 03Jan to 11Feb, which is generally a pretty slow travel period.

Wow, I thought that CMH-LAX was pretty solid. Apparently not. Probably is being hurt by SkyBus flying to BUR.


User currently offlineB4REAL From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2644 posts, RR: 5
Reply 3, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 5395 times:

This may be a seasonal adjustment.


B4REAL, spelled like it sounds
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6608 posts, RR: 24
Reply 4, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 5397 times:

Quoting ATLAaron (Reply 2):
Wow, I thought that CMH-LAX was pretty solid. Apparently not. Probably is being hurt by SkyBus flying to BUR.

Even if CMH-LAX is a strong route, it's no surprise that DL is reducing frequency during this time frame. Januarly/early Februarly is the slowest time of the year for air travel. Almost all airlines lose money during this time. In recent years, the legacy carriers (in particular DL) have become more aggressive at cutting capacity during these down times to minimize losses.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23023 posts, RR: 20
Reply 5, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 5309 times:

Quoting B4REAL (Reply 3):
This may be a seasonal adjustment.

It may also be the result of operational difficulties at JAX caused by the construction of the new terminal. While it could also be the performance of the route, DL (like every other carrier at JAX) is pretty squeezed for space right now.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineEXAAUADL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 5281 times:

while flying these markets 3-4 times per week will help with loads, it almost guarantees a fall in yield. Business travellers really need at least Mon-Fri nonstop service. Maybe DL can recapture this traffic thru SLC or CVG.

Quoting Mcamargo (Reply 1):
Did DL over-estimate the potential of an LAX hub perhaps?

I think youll see some more in the near future....Airline managers look at a city like LAX and say..wow big city, we have to be big there...yet the market is fragmented and very competitive....meanwhile CO and NW had awesome quarters with minimal LAX presence.


User currently offlineHVNandrew From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 435 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 5131 times:

Interesting adjustments for DL at LAX. Come the new year, they'll be cutting mainline to LAS and JAX, and all service to MFE, SAN, and YVR.

But remember that CUN, BZE, GUA, LIR and some RJ Mexican destinations come back online this winter, and DL is starting the new Hawaii and IAD service in the first half of next year.


User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25414 posts, RR: 49
Reply 8, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 5020 times:

Delta's LAX expansion has been very much hit an miss.

Some routes like CZM never started, others such as TIJ, BZE, SAN, YVR have or will get the axe, while yet others have seen significant frequency adjustments -- many Latin ones are operated with merely one or two weekly frequencies.

Here is a summary of the many token services Delta is operating in December, a peak travel period;

LAX-ACA Sat only 738
LAX-BOI 6x weekly ERJ
LAX-CUN Sat only 738
LAX-CMH 4x weekly 738
LAX-CUL 2x weekly ERJ
LAX-EUG daily ERJ
LAX-GUA 4x weekly 757
LAX-BDL 4x weekly 738
LAX-ZIH Sat only ERJ
LAX-JAX 5x weekly 738
LAX-LAP 4x weekly ERJ
LAX-LIR Sat only 738
LAX-LTO 3x weekly ERJ
LAX-LMM 4x weekly ERJ
LAX-MGA Sat only 757
LAX-ZLO 3x weekly ERJ
LAX-MZT 5x weekly ERJ
LAX-MFE 5x weekly ERJ
LAX-PDX daily ERJ
LAX-RDU 4x weekly 738
LAX-RNO daily ERJ
LAX-TRC 6x weekly ERJ
LAX-YVR 5x weekly ERJ
LAX-ZCL 3x weekly ERJ

I'm not sure what value or competative position DL can offer when many of these destinations are served by others offering much more frequent service.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6570 posts, RR: 50
Reply 9, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 4981 times:

LAX-MSY seems to be hanging on with a daily 738 for the time being, as well.

User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32789 posts, RR: 72
Reply 10, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 4982 times:

Is anybody really surprised? I don't think the CMH/MSY/BDL/RDU flights will last that long either.


a.
User currently offlineRL757PVD From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4675 posts, RR: 11
Reply 11, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 4952 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 10):
Is anybody really surprised? I don't think the CMH/MSY/BDL/RDU flights will last that long either.

essentially all of the medium sized market transcon routes are extremely suceptable to fuel prices, and we all see whats happening with those.

Look at BDL.. they had SFO and LAX pre 9/11 and with problably $10/ barell oil and they did great.

my guess is in todays envronment, SFO would be a money loser, and LAX probably profitable daily up to $75/ barrel and profitable 4x weekly say up to $90/ barrel (these are all hypotethical guesses) But i do think transcons will start dropping like flies if we see several sustained months of $100+ for oil.



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlineLACA773 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 4018 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 4918 times:
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Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 10):
Is anybody really surprised? I don't think the CMH/MSY/BDL/RDU flights will last that long either.

I just called a friend of mine who's in flight crew management @ DL and read your quote to him MAH4546. He said, no, those routes are just being cut back during the off peak winter season as they don't want fly with an a/c less than half full on lighter travel days with the way fuel is rising every day.

He wants to know if you work for DL MAH4546?

LACA773


User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25414 posts, RR: 49
Reply 13, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 4885 times:

Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 6):
Airline managers look at a city like LAX and say..wow big city, we have to be big there...yet the market is fragmented and very competitive....

 checkmark  Amen.

While LA might be on of the worlds biggest markets, its both very well served and very competitive.
There really are not many gaping holes or markets that are crying out for service. These facts make it hard for someone like Delta to show up and push their way in.

My prediction are as follows;
- With Grinstein gone, DL will not hang on to its LAX aspirations. Flying will continue getting pruned leaving destinations that truly serve and benefit the greater DL network and can atleast be flown at breakeven.
- ExpressJet will wake up reduce/withdraw its loss making branded flying by signing a long term agreement with some carrier. This will also see carrier dropping its 'at risk" DL flying.
- DL will eventually settle on a small express operation in LA feeding its core flying to places such as ATL, Hawaii, JFK etc, most likely intra-CA flying complementing the AE code-share.

Quoting LACA773 (Reply 12):
those routes are just being cut back during the off peak winter season

December is off-peak? CMH,BDL,RDU are 4x weekly even thru Xmas.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32789 posts, RR: 72
Reply 14, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 4864 times:

Quoting LACA773 (Reply 12):
I just called a friend of mine who's in flight crew management @ DL and read your quote to him MAH4546. He said, no, those routes are just being cut back during the off peak winter season as they don't want fly with an a/c less than half full on lighter travel days with the way fuel is rising every day.

He wants to know if you work for DL MAH4546?

My quote was simply an opinion, not based on fact. With fuel prices rising, these thin routes aren't going to make much sense. And, I'm sorry, but "off peak winter season" includes Christmas? And business markets served at 4x weekly? That doesn't fly with me. I'll keep with my opinion, I could very well be wrong.



a.
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17511 posts, RR: 45
Reply 15, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 4849 times:

Quoting LACA773 (Reply 12):
He said, no, those routes are just being cut back during the off peak winter season as they don't want fly with an a/c less than half full on lighter travel days with the way fuel is rising every day.



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 5):
It may also be the result of operational difficulties at JAX caused by the construction of the new terminal. While it could also be the performance of the route, DL (like every other carrier at JAX) is pretty squeezed for space right now.

Mmmhmmm. Ockham's Razor. The route didn't do well, just like many of DL's other adds at LAX. Plus those routes aren't particularly full and DL is most certainly not getting some kind of amazing revenue premium to compensate.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlinePanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4910 posts, RR: 24
Reply 16, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 4820 times:
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Quoting Laxintl (Reply 8):
Here is a summary of the many token services Delta is operating in December, a peak travel period;

LAX-ACA Sat only 738
LAX-BOI 6x weekly ERJ
LAX-CUN Sat only 738
LAX-CMH 4x weekly 738
LAX-CUL 2x weekly ERJ
LAX-EUG daily ERJ
LAX-GUA 4x weekly 757
LAX-BDL 4x weekly 738
LAX-ZIH Sat only ERJ
LAX-JAX 5x weekly 738
LAX-LAP 4x weekly ERJ
LAX-LIR Sat only 738
LAX-LTO 3x weekly ERJ
LAX-LMM 4x weekly ERJ
LAX-MGA Sat only 757
LAX-ZLO 3x weekly ERJ
LAX-MZT 5x weekly ERJ
LAX-MFE 5x weekly ERJ
LAX-PDX daily ERJ
LAX-RDU 4x weekly 738
LAX-RNO daily ERJ
LAX-TRC 6x weekly ERJ
LAX-YVR 5x weekly ERJ
LAX-ZCL 3x weekly ERJ

December is peak really only after Dec15. You were looking at schedules in early December. If you look at skeds post-Dec 15, you will see that frequencies on some of these routes are higher. Some increases include:

LAX-CUN goes 5x weekly
LAX-PDX goes 2x daily eff Dec 17
LAX-MZT goes daily
LAX-RNO goes 2x daily
LAX-CMH goes 6x weekly
LAX-RDU goes 6x weekly,
etc.

[Edited 2007-11-06 12:23:34]

User currently offline727LOVER From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 6439 posts, RR: 17
Reply 17, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 4654 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 5):
at JAX caused by the construction of the new terminal

JAX is building a new terminal? When? Where? Details?

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 11):
pre 9/11 and with problably $10/ barell oil and they did great.

I don't think oil was THAT low in 2001 pre-9/11. IIRC, it actually went down after 9/11. There was .99 per gallon all over this state.



Listen Betty, don't start up with your 'White Zone' s*** again.
User currently offlineRL757PVD From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4675 posts, RR: 11
Reply 18, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 4646 times:

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 17):
I don't think oil was THAT low in 2001 pre-9/11. IIRC, it actually went down after 9/11. There was .99 per gallon all over this state.

Accoridng to the chart im looking at over the past 20 years, the low point was around 1999 (when all these transcons started springing up) and Crude Oil looked to be roughly $12/ barrel



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlineDAL767400ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks ago) and read 4530 times:

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 17):
JAX is building a new terminal? When? Where? Details?

Will be one single, slightly curved concourse in front of Concourses A and C. Concourse B will likely be the first concourse to be torn down, and A and C will be torn down once the new concourse is more or less complete. No idea on the number of gates or whether there'll be FIS, as JAX' website plain and simply svcks. For more info on the location, use Local Live Search. The Images are pretty new and you can already see the rough outline of the new concourse.


User currently offlineHPAEAA From United States of America, joined May 2006, 1024 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks ago) and read 4460 times:

Quoting LACA773 (Reply 12):
I just called a friend of mine who's in flight crew management @ DL and read your quote to him MAH4546. He said, no, those routes are just being cut back during the off peak winter season as they don't want fly with an a/c less than half full on lighter travel days with the way fuel is rising every day.

He wants to know if you work for DL MAH4546?

Relax, Crew Scheduling isn't exactly involved in strategic route planning... If DL can find a route for the 738 7x weekly the route will be axed for good....

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 14):
My quote was simply an opinion, not based on fact. With fuel prices rising, these thin routes aren't going to make much sense. And, I'm sorry, but "off peak winter season" includes Christmas? And business markets served at 4x weekly? That doesn't fly with me. I'll keep with my opinion, I could very well be wrong.

Only quick response is that the thought holds true if there are competitors in the market.. if a business traveler can get the nonstop one way and a conex back vs. conx going and coming, they'll take the nonstop and conx...



Why do I fly???
User currently offlineDeltaRules From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3772 posts, RR: 9
Reply 21, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks ago) and read 4437 times:

Wasn't CMH down to 4x weekly for a while last year?


Let's Kick the Tires & Light the Fires!!
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32789 posts, RR: 72
Reply 22, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks ago) and read 4413 times:

Quoting HPAEAA (Reply 20):
Only quick response is that the thought holds true if there are competitors in the market.. if a business traveler can get the nonstop one way and a conex back vs. conx going and coming, they'll take the nonstop and conx...

While that's true, some would say "If I have to connect one way, I might as well connect both and fly [preferred airline]." It eliminates an important competitive advantage and devalues the purpose of having a non-sop.

It's one of the reasons various attempts at Saturday-only service from LaGuardia to places like LAX, LAS, SLC, etc. by Delta, ATA, and US Airways have consistently faltered.



a.
User currently offlineHPAEAA From United States of America, joined May 2006, 1024 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (6 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 4383 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 22):
While that's true, some would say "If I have to connect one way, I might as well connect both and fly [preferred airline]." It eliminates an important competitive advantage and devalues the purpose of having a non-sop.

It's one of the reasons various attempts at Saturday-only service from LaGuardia to places like LAX, LAS, SLC, etc. by Delta, ATA, and US Airways have consistently faltered.

ok, fair enough for the gold members of the world... your right it does take something away, but not enough for the most valuable business traffic...

Re: the SAT only traffic from LGA, well I have to take exception, on Sat from LGA, your mostly dealing with leisure traffic which brings lower RASM and indifference to the nonstop vs conx equation (most are shopping on price alone), there also very little business demand (most business travel wants to be out on Friday or arrive Sunday night at the earliest) not to mention you also have JFK and EWR which offer nonstops to many places which would be Sat only out of LGA... some travelers might use the Sat only nonstop and fly in or out of a another NYC airport... it's a little skewed...



Why do I fly???
User currently offlineASEFlyer From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 163 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (6 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 4350 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 10):
Is anybody really surprised? I don't think the CMH/MSY/BDL/RDU flights will last that long either.

I don't see MSY getting it. Lots of O&D with film industry.


25 MAH4546 : You could say that about dozens of city pairs from LAX - MCO, YVR, MIA, ILM. That doesn't mean much.
26 MSYtristar : LAX-MSY has always been a strong O&D market. The significant film industry traffic has only helped it out. Add to the fact that DL has always had a p
27 Alitalia744 : MSY and CMH aren't going anywhere.
28 LAxintl : Funny enough, I see Delta reliving the same exact experience Continental had with ExpressJet also operating Mexico RJ service from LAX. Like DL, CO en
29 Rookinla : LAX-JAX must not be experiencing very high yields...loads seemed to be fine. Been on this one numerous times and they always seemed to leave people at
30 ERJ170 : Is there a possibility Delta could downgrade some of the transcons LAX flights to 737-700 when they come online, or are they completely dedicated to C
31 MAH4546 : I doubt it. They were not bought for that, and a slight downgrade to the 73G won't really solve anything here. I'm not doubting it's a strong O&D mar
32 ERJ170 : I think it hinted that MSY and CMH wasn't going anywhere.. not necessarily that BDL and RDU were being cut. Word at RDU is that the LAX flight is mee
33 Alitalia744 : No. Not necessarily. At least not yet. Correct for now at least.
34 WorldTraveler : You all are getting all worked up about DL's very fast expansion at LAX and then a partial pulldown - probably a lot of which will be for a couple mon
35 Klwright69 : Airline managers look at a city like LAX and say..wow big city, we have to be big there...yet the market is fragmented and very competitive.... check
36 Jetdeltamsy : Whaaaaaattttttttttttttttt? LAX has been an on-again/off-again hub/focus city for Delta for decades...even before the Western merger. They increase ca
37 LACA773 : When DL was starting all these new nonstops with Express Jet ERJs, we were all wondering what was going to happen. I for one didn't see it going to we
38 HVNandrew : I doubt you'll see the ExpressJet flights go to mainline. In fact, DL is doing the opposite. LAS is going from a mix of mainline and ERJs to all Expr
39 HVNandrew : Someone on Wikipedia (I know, not really a reliable source...) has posted that CMH service will end on Feb. 12. It's still in the DL schedule. Any ve
40 MSYtristar : Inaccurate. The flight does not operate on 2/13, however. Here's the schedule for the flight eff. 2/14: DL 1491 X236 CMHLAX 1935 2136 737 0 M DL 1492
41 LAXdude1023 : Not really. DL is fighting an uphill battle at LAX. Its my opinion that they are losing the battle to the others (namely UA). Indeed. Alot of times i
42 Gigneil : Because it was a stupid idea in the first place. Decidedly secondary markets with nondaily service? To compete with WN, AA, and UA already firmly ent
43 Post contains images MaverickM11 : That one is my favorite excuse of all. Yeah they needed it elsewhere, as in flying something that doesn't lose as much money or parked
44 BA744PHX : How is DL doing on LAX-PHX against US and WN???
45 Ezra : Is there any talk about DL opening JAX-SLC now that JAX-LAX is going away?
46 Post contains links MAH4546 : Florida Times-Union article: http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-onlin...stories/110707/bus_215534805.shtml
47 MaverickM11 : It would probably do quite a bit better than JAXLAX.
48 HPAEAA : ewww.. ugly times for the business traveler... leisures not bad... but still... how does the return time with Asian arrivals? (excuse the ignorance)
49 Klwright69 : Another well thought out comment... I just reread my earlier post and realized I went off topic. Sorry. Carefully looking at DL routes out of LAX aga
50 Commavia : That will be fun too watch. Just like how Delta is competing against AA + JetBlue at JFK, they'll have AA + United at LAX, both of which are signific
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