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What Will Replace The Smaller Turboprops?  
User currently offlineHUbsnotDubs From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 49 posts, RR: 0
Posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 6387 times:

What plans ( if any ) are in store for a smaller turboprop for the 19 seat to 35 seat range? The newer Turboprops from both ATR and Bombardier are larger and the smaller 'props like the Beech 1900, Brasilia and Saab's arent on the market. Who is going to address this problem and when? thanks!

49 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13549 posts, RR: 100
Reply 1, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 6326 times:
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Quoting HUbsnotDubs (Thread starter):
What plans ( if any ) are in store for a smaller turboprop for the 19 seat to 35 seat range?

There is nothing in development.  Sad

Most likely it will be ATR, Bombardier, or Embraer; but not for years. The current turboprops have a bit of life left in them. Only when the market is begging for a new small turboprop will one be developed. That won't happen before 2015.

But there is a catch to this: the VLJ's. That's right, they might effectively displace the small turboprop market. Whatever turboprop is envisioned for sale in 2015 will have to compete against air Taxi operators flying the Adam, Honda, Embraer, and Cessna VLJ's. Personally, that could be enough to kill off the short hop market.

My prediction even includes an estimate of ever increasing fuel prices. Customers like jets. Let's face it, we fly to save time over driving (or a boat).

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineBoston92 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 3390 posts, RR: 7
Reply 2, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 6316 times:

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 1):
Customers like jets. Let's face it, we fly to save time over driving (or a boat).

Yeah, but turboprops can eaisly be made to fly 40 pax at 350 knots using less fuel than a jet on short routes, and hopefully the regionals will keep turboprops around until a jet can be made as economical.



"Why does a slight tax increase cost you $200 and a substantial tax cut save you 30 cents?"
User currently offlineHUbsnotDubs From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 49 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 6266 times:

I just see such a market for turboprops especially with new technology...those Becch's and Basilila's are old and for some reason the D 328 never meade a dent...

User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13549 posts, RR: 100
Reply 4, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 6240 times:
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Quoting Boston92 (Reply 2):
Yeah, but turboprops can eaisly be made to fly 40 pax at 350 knots using less fuel than a jet on short routes, and hopefully the regionals will keep turboprops around until a jet can be made as economical.

True.

But as my sister points out, Platinum frequent fliers don't like spinny thingies on the wings.  Wink


I hope their is a new turboprop, but the market isn't yet ready to support the development of a new one. Would a carbon fiber turboprop even further reduce fuel burn? Heck yes! But it must be developed cheap. In other words, I fear it might come from China or Russia.  Sad Not that they can't make planes, I'd just rather see soemthing from Beech, Bombardier, or Embraer who all have a tradition of supporting their product. Heck, maybe Honda will realize there is a market opportunity.  Wink

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineEMBQA From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 9364 posts, RR: 11
Reply 5, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 6233 times:

Quoting HUbsnotDubs (Thread starter):
Who is going to address this problem and when?

Ever heard of the used aircraft market...?? Its actually quite hot right now.



"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
User currently offlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3432 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 6211 times:

I doubt small turboprops will ever be marketed again.

Markets that can't support a modern "full size" turboprop just simply won't get served. People can learn to take the bus to a major airport, as the economics of a 19 seat turboprop are just not there. People can't accept that it costs more a person to fly 60-100 miles to a major airport in the tiny little plane than it does to fly coast to coast in a 200+ seat jet.


User currently offlineYVRLTN From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 2548 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 6142 times:

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 6):
People can learn to take the bus to a major airport, as the economics of a 19 seat turboprop are just not there

For the most part I agree, but in regions like Alaska and northern Canada and in other lesser developed countries too where there is awkward terrain, islands, snow and ice, jungle, few roads, poor landing strips and minimal facilities, these small B1900's etc are the vital lifeline, so there will always be a market for such planes.

Its interesting to note that Viking are restarting Twin Otter production, dubbed the 400 srs so this would be ideal for such remote locations (and has also received orders from the Maldives & Seychelles amongst others), but other than that, if a Dash 8 / ATR42 cant be abused / not enough room, then the way to go will be more frequent flights on King Air's, PC12's and the like, but that will be years away before that starts happening en masse, all these small props seem to be tough machines and will be around for a good while yet, and there are a lot of them when we include the likes of the Jetstreams & Metroliners on top of your list too, not to mentions scores of Czech L410's outside of North America - and even when all these have died, there will still be DC3's flying around  Wink To clarify, I am specifically talking about special geographical conditions, not rural airports to hubs etc, where I agree with XT6, and the birds that were once used on these flights will end up doing this sort of work - and such operators cant afford to acquire and support new metal anyway, so they are happy picking them up at 2nd / 3rd / 8th / 15th hand prices.



Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
User currently offlineADent From United States of America, joined exactly 8 years ago today! , 1406 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 6121 times:

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 7):
People can learn to take the bus to a major airport, as the economics of a 19 seat turboprop are just not there.

I thought the bus was terminated in large swaths of the US, particularly those locations not on an interstate.


User currently offlineFreshlove1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 6102 times:

Quoting HUbsnotDubs (Reply 3):
D 328 never meade a dent...

The Dornier 328 was a great aircraft, once it got in the air, flew on many of those when PSA (USAirways Express) used to fly them. A fast climb and a smooth ride. Some of the pilots I knew who flew them said that they were MTC. hogs and that hurt their ability to stay with the airlines who purchased them. PSA eventually replaced the entire fleet of D328's with the RJ's. I am not sure who, if anybody, still flys the D328 today.


User currently offlineCloudy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 5995 times:

Quoting ADent (Reply 8):
I thought the bus was terminated in large swaths of the US, particularly those locations not on an interstate

Yes. For the most part, people don't connect from bus to plane. They go from car to plane. Some sort of through ticketing arrangement, or "intermodel codeshare" could change that eventually, but it doesn't seem to be on the way at all.

In large parts of the USA intercity busses have a very "trashy" reputation. People who fly anywhere near routinely would
not be caught dead in one. Its sad but true.


User currently offlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3432 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 5942 times:

Quoting ADent (Reply 8):
I thought the bus was terminated in large swaths of the US, particularly those locations not on an interstate.

Grayhound goes most places in the lower 48. If you don't live in a place big enough for bus service... then you more or less HAVE to own a car to survive.


User currently offlineUshermittwoch From Germany, joined Jan 2004, 2969 posts, RR: 16
Reply 12, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 5931 times:

Quoting Cloudy (Reply 10):

Well from Madison, WI to ORD or MDW there actually is a great shuttle service provided from VanGalder Bus. You used to be able to get 500 Frequent Flier Miles for AA on those rides, but I don't know if that still applies, since I am a SkyTeam guy.
A good idea and solution though, IMHO.



Where have all the tri-jets gone...
User currently offline2175301 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1085 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 5839 times:

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 11):
Grayhound goes most places in the lower 48.

Greyhound has virtually vanished in the Midwest. I just looked at the Midwest route map - and the only places that Greyhound has listed as main stops are places that are big enough to be served by the airlines. The routes are currently exclusively along the interstates.

www.greyhound.com/locations/routemap/2c.html

I used to rid Greyhound a lot - and even worked at a small town ticket agent location. I'd suggest that almost 90% of the old routs no longer exist.

The best bus service in Wisconsin is between Madison and Milwaukee by Badger (and I note that there is no longer a Greyhound bus terminal in Madison Wisconsin, and hasn't been one for decades - instead they use the Badger Bus terminal).


User currently offlineFlying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4166 posts, RR: 36
Reply 14, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 5829 times:

RUAG is going to resume production of the Dornier 228-200, their board has already approved this. Final assembly to be in Germany, parts coming from all over the world, with a big chunk coming from HAL. Target market is mainly the special mission market, but IMO there will be quite a bit or airline demand as well. Production to resume in 2009. Avionic etc all to be brought to newest standards.


Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
User currently offlineSpeedbird2263 From Jamaica, joined Jul 2006, 472 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 5814 times:

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 1):
But there is a catch to this: the VLJ's. That's right, they might effectively displace the small turboprop market. Whatever turboprop is envisioned for sale in 2015 will have to compete against air Taxi operators flying the Adam, Honda, Embraer, and Cessna VLJ's. Personally, that could be enough to kill off the short hop market.

The day that the VLJ market effectively 'kills' the small Turboprop Market i.e. B1900's and Saabs size class, is the day that I admit to have seen it all. sigh  To be frank American's in general have always liked 'BIG', which can be seen in the ever increasing size of personal craft, however their's also an attraction to Jet's, which explains the VLJ market. The idea is to make the smallest Jet possible that it may be available to a greater number of potential owner/operators due mainly to the significantly lower cost of a VLJ. Now having been to airshow's and personally sitting in the Eclipse, Mustang and mock-ups of the D-Jet and Piper-Jet, I just cant see how they are going to be adapted to commercial ops of carrying 4/5 ppl the most and being significantly more efficient at it than the small turboprop while commanding the same market share of passengers.

Now im not saying that the VLJ market is/isnt there, but it certainly wont infringe upon the small turboprop market significantly. If anything as has been mentioned, the small turboprop market may be replaced by the medium craft market as we see a trend in both manufacturers building larger aircraft and airlines purchasing them. eg. CRJ1000, E190, D8-400X, etc.



Straight'n Up 'N Fly Right Son ;)
User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7089 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 5772 times:

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 14):
RUAG is going to resume production of the Dornier 228-200, their board has already approved this. Final assembly to be in Germany, parts coming from all over the world, with a big chunk coming from HAL. Target market is mainly the special mission market, but IMO there will be quite a bit or airline demand as well. Production to resume in 2009. Avionic etc all to be brought to newest standards

Yes, I have read that and wanted to post it here,too also I think to have read that the DHC 6 Twin Otter will also be produced again since there is nothing on the market to replace those aircraft.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineHUbsnotDubs From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 49 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 5562 times:

Honda, Cessna, Cirrus and even eclipse at something long a large enough VLJ or mybe a 19seat advance turboprop.....the market is there

User currently offlineYVRLTN From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 2548 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 5376 times:

Quoting ADent (Reply 8):
I thought the bus was terminated in large swaths of the US, particularly those locations not on an interstate.

My point was that the US commuter market will gradually change so that people will have to get to the airport overland (bus / car / bike / horse & cart) as opposed to flying in a small prop - and I was quoting XT6.

Quoting Freshlove1 (Reply 9):
I am not sure who, if anybody, still flys the D328 today

Cant think of any in the US, but Jazz partner CMA have acquired 2 fairly recently for routes within BC & AB and Scotairways in the UK have quite a few.



Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
User currently offlineDEVILFISH From Philippines, joined Jan 2006, 4952 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 5314 times:

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 4):
Not that they can't make planes, I'd just rather see soemthing from Beech, Bombardier, or Embraer who all have a tradition of supporting their product.

I wonder what's keeping Piaggio from coming out with a 19 or 35 seater version of the Avanti.....

View Large View Medium
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Photo © Mark Carlisle


Otherwise, with General Electric's acquisition of Walter Motorlet, we might just have to settle for an updated 44-seat L-610G powered by GE CT7-9Ds.....

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Photo © Martin Pole
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Photo © Tomislav Muic - CroSpotterTeam


.....in addition to the ubiquitous but hopefully similarly updated L-420.....

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Photo © Roberto Benetti
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Photo © Malcolm J.Bezzina




"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
User currently offlineScrumpy492003 From Canada, joined Jul 2007, 170 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 5271 times:

Have to remember, that the Twin Otter is hardly ...

1, comfortable
2, fast, cruising at around 165 kts or so!!

Sure very hardy craft, specialty craft, BUT hardly for the mainstream commuter traffic, just the Northern remote places. In those places their value is more than that of Gold, because they are so versatile, with floats, skiis, wheels and the amphibs etc. unprepared places and highways, taking off and stopping on a dime etc.

BUT

The North is distinct in it's requirements, the only time quick planes are needed are for medevacs and company Presidents etc. the rest of the time belongs to the workhorses, beavers, Otters, C185's, Murphy craft also.

Anyway,
The DC3 is still around as well as a Connie or two (I think).

peter



peter b95 c-ghfu
User currently offlineHUbsnotDubs From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 49 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 5239 times:

The Avanti would be a very nice EAS route sub over a Beech 1900

User currently offlineCOFanNYC From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 215 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 5141 times:

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 13):
Greyhound has virtually vanished in the Midwest. I just looked at the Midwest route map - and the only places that Greyhound has listed as main stops are places that are big enough to be served by the airlines. The routes are currently exclusively along the interstates.

I don't mean to hijack the thread and turn it into a Greyhound thread, but the Greyhound "route map" is only a glimpse of what they serve. According to the route map, they only serve 7 places in Wisconsin. In reality, they serve close to 40:

http://www.greyhound.com/scripts/en/...icketCenter/locations.asp?state=wi


User currently offlineAcelanzarote From Spain, joined Nov 2005, 857 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5086 times:

Perhaps ATR could make a ATR22 or something simlair?
Alot of B1900's/Metro's/EMB120's are used for cargo. Someday they will
need replacing .....



from the Island with sun and great photo's.. Why not visit Lanzarote
User currently offlineHUbsnotDubs From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 49 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (7 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 5033 times:

Has a new EMB-120 been looked at?

25 Post contains images Vfw614 : If customer wishes were the only consideration, all airlines would fly the Concorde NG nowadays.... Plenty of airlines in Europe. Over here, the folk
26 Post contains images PlymSpotter : There are a few actually; There is also the upgraded Harbin Y-12 IV "Twin Panda" seating about 10, which will no doubt sell models in the South East
27 ERAUgrad02 : Someone should build the J-32 again. I enjoyed flying on the mosquito.
28 Post contains links and images DEVILFISH : View Large View MediumPhoto © Sergey Riabsev - Russian AviaPhoto Team Sukhoi tried. But their multi-purpose, twin-boom solution did not find con
29 2175301 : Every one of those stops is along the routes on that route map. The old Greyhound route map used to look like a massive spider web for the state of W
30 Czbbflier : My guess is that when it comes to developing a new turboprop, don't look to Canada. Canada is terrible at innovation... The Dash 8 is essentially a 30
31 Alessandro : I doubt any manufacturer can make money from this size plane? Perhaps India can sell some Dornier-228s?[Edited 2007-11-10 19:46:39]
32 Alessandro : Devilfish, problem is that Sukhoi don´t have a trackrecord for civilian planes. Many military plane manufacturer tried to make civilian planes and fa
33 Tdscanuck : Also true of the 737, 747, 767, and A320. That doesn't automatically mean they're bad at innovation. Tom.
34 Post contains links and images DEVILFISH : Not passenger planes, but..... View Large View MediumPhoto © Ilya Morozov - Russian AviaPhoto Team And that did not deter them from embarking on
35 CJAContinental : They do sound really cool when they're taking off.
36 Alessandro : Tristar was a very costly experience for Lockheed, SAAB lost money on the 340/2000, especially the latter. Dassault lost money on the Mercure.
37 Falstaff : . That is true. I A lot of people would never ride the bus because a lot of "undesirable" people ride the bus. I certainly wouldn't want to be riding
38 YULWinterSkies : Do you mean most people notice the "turboprop service" note when they book their tickets? "hey dad, look, that's a turboprop!" -"no, i believe that's
39 DEVILFISH : It had been financially challenging to them at first, but the bulk of the problem was with Rolls-Royce who went bankrupt developing the three-spool R
40 HUbsnotDubs : I think this is a bittersweet statement as while it is somewhat true it is very hard to compare the Challenger and a new CRJ 900. However if you do t
41 747fan : I do have to agree with you on that, they sound nice inside and outside. Although its obviously not a regional turboprop, there's nothing like the so
42 HUbsnotDubs : I think this is a bittersweet statement as while it is somewhat true it is very hard to compare the Challenger and a new CRJ 900. However if you do t
43 Czbbflier : Reading the thread about the P&W engines and the new C-Series aircraft, at least when it comes to the jets, perhaps I spoke too soon! Now for deHavil
44 JoeCanuck : I reckon that all we'd get is another 4 wide rj in an already crowded market. The margins on biz jets are way higher, in any case.
45 Post contains images OB1504 : Lockheed had a long and colorful history of civilian aircraft manufacturing, producing airplanes like the Vega, Electra, Constellation, and finally,
46 HUbsnotDubs : True ... very true people buy there tix for the cheapest price most of the time and any do not know what a B-717 is to a B-1900...that is until they
47 JoeCanuck : I have never seen a person turn away from a flight because it was a turboprop. From what I have seen, most people end up being cool about it after th
48 Access-Air : Well it seems that if they spend enuff money to have Platnum status they should just charter their own private jets.....Then they wont have to see th
49 HUbsnotDubs : Access-Air- I couldn't agree more, and you make many very good points. I think that the Part 121 regs are here to stay as bad as that might hurt the s
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