Dme From Portugal, joined Mar 2004, 110 posts, RR: 0 Posted (8 years 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 1979 times:
Interesting, now that it is talked in every part that either BA, AF or LH might bid for Iberia, Iberia has declared a profit from January to September of 223 M€.
Do you think that this information would change the view of Iberia owners that it should be better to stay independent rather than be a property of one of the majors?. I am thinking that in the next 10 years the 1) high speed train in Europe will change our view of air transportation, 2) the Lcc will, little by little, invade every niche, 3) American companies will begin to fly internal European routes, 4) major companies from China or the Middle East (i.e., Emirates) will try to scratch some of the European pie. If that is, although partially true, imho, there will be Lcc companies doing internal pan-European routes, some relatively small, even franchises, will feed the majors, but the majors, as we know now, will be more managed to international long (intercontinental) routes. About the European panorama: Would Iberia try to compete with BA/AF/LH (at its level of course) or would it wolf down. I think that now Iberia has an opportunity to be independent but only if the Spanish investors think on the long, but not on the short, run.
BHXFAOTIPYYC From Portugal, joined Jun 2005, 1644 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (8 years 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 1828 times:
Quoting Dme (Thread starter): 1) high speed train in Europe will change our view of air transportation
I think there will be limited expansion, but by no means exhaustive. For shorter journeys (+/- 2 hours) the train can compete (LON PAR BRU etc) but no-one is ever likely to build FAO LON (poss via MAD and PAR) in the next 50 yrs, let alone 10. It's a 2.5 hr flight.
I think they are reaching crital mass with routes. I don't see the exponential growth continuing.
Quoting Dme (Thread starter): 3) American companies will begin to fly internal European routes,
Again, on premium routes possibly during off peak season where operating 2 individual flights rather than say a combined NYC MAD BCN NYC is not economically viable. EK do this with ROM and NCE. I do not see AA basing an a/c in Europe to operate LON PAR though. That would have to work both ways. Too much intra European competition as it is. Ditto US domestic.