EI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0 Posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 9534 times:
Quote: Emirates has left the door open to potential future orders with Boeing for its 747-8I and proposed "777X" enhanced, despite the major deal at the Dubai air show for up to 120 Airbus A350 XWBs.
The A350 deal, which comprises 70 firm orders and 50 options for delivery from 2014, came after a long evaluation that also included Boeing's proposed 787-10 stretch. However, Emirates Airline president Tim Clark says that the majority of the firmly ordered XWBs will be used for replacement of older aircraft, and there is still a longer-term requirement where Boeing could compete with the improved 777 derivative that it is studying.
MSYtristar From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 9453 times:
Who the hell knows what EK is thinking?
I personally think that every order EK makes is a huge gamble. I just cannot fathom the airline taking ALL the options for the aircraft they have on order. 50+ A380's...a huge risk for EK....70+ A350's....huge fleet of 777's which will be around for awhile....A340's.....maybe more Boring orders....in my opinion, way too many large aircraft for the market. DXB may be a happening place right now but who knows what will happen in the next 5-10 years? I know people over there like to flaunt the fact that they have billions upon billions to spend, but it's getting ridiculous. I will stick with my prediction that in 10-15 years time we could very well see a huge amount of widebodies suddenly available on the open market.
AA1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3451 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 9411 times:
Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 1): I personally think that every order EK makes is a huge gamble. I just cannot fathom the airline taking ALL the options for the aircraft they have on order. 50+ A380's...a huge risk for EK....70+ A350's....huge fleet of 777's which will be around for awhile....A340's.....maybe more Boring orders....in my opinion, way too many large aircraft for the market. DXB may be a happening place right now but who knows what will happen in the next 5-10 years? I know people over there like to flaunt the fact that they have billions upon billions to spend, but it's getting ridiculous. I will stick with my prediction that in 10-15 years time we could very well see a huge amount of widebodies suddenly available on the open market.
I agree somewhat with you.
I think that if EK was the only airline in the MidEast then their growth etc could be sustainable in the long term, however the problem for me is with QR, EY, GF, RJ and others, also on spending sprees vying to become hubs. Also DXB is no longer the only city pushing for the hot-spot. DOH and Abu Dabi are also in the running. I think that something will have to give, and in less than 10 years we will see some sort of 'equilibrium' position where the carriers cannot and will not grow too much and will have ot concede certain routes to each other.
Amazing growth though, for such a volatile region!
I'd love for EK to get some new Boeings- 748is need some orders and maybe push Boeing to stay competitive with the 777!
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
XT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3456 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 9208 times:
Quoting EI321 (Thread starter): 1. I thought the 747-8I has been frozen, is it able to reach LAX as desired?
I think that there is a distance between what Boeing is willing to Bet thier money on in terms of performance, and what EK is willing to bet thier money on in performance. Doesn't matter that much to either, given the number of years thet the 747 is sold out coupled with how soon the flight test program for the 748 will begin.
If it all goes right, and Boeing does beat the contracted specs, then I'm guessing it will be a heck of alot closer to what EK was demanding than most would think.
Its also possible that EK will get some for short haul VLA flights, but I doubt it somewhat with the 777 having 10Y making their seat count quite close to the 747 compared to the normal 777 => 747 seat count gap. In addition for short haul to india, the 747's quickly hit thier exit limit seat count, making both the 777 and A380 better choices for high density routes that are almost entirely Y class. A 777-300 will only lose a handful of seats compared to a 747, and the A380 gets upto stupid huge counts.
Scorpio From Belgium, joined Oct 2001, 5070 posts, RR: 44
Reply 7, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 9109 times:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 5): Well the're apparently still interested in teh 787-10 too and I think Boeing is going to have some news on that very soon.
I doubt it. They've never stated that. It was mentioned at the time of the A350 deal that they were still interested in the -8 and -9, which were to be pitted against the A350-800, and now in this article the 747-8i and '777X'. No mention was made of them still being interested in the 787-10. I think that ship has sailed with the A350 order.
EI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 8934 times:
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 8): Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 1):
.70+ A350's....huge fleet of 777's which will be around for awhile....A340's.....maybe more Boring orders..
...most of the A350's are for fleet replacement of earlier aircraft...
I wish people would realise this! Emirates will eventually have about 100 777's and the A350 order will be used to replace their 777's, A332's, A340's [if they still have any left by 2014], etc.
I still think they wont order the 747-8i. It may be just a negotiating tool for more A380's, but then If an outsider like me is able to conclude that Emirates interest in the 747-8i is a ploy, surely Airbus will call their bluff on this also!
PEET7G From Hungary, joined Jan 2007, 695 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8750 times:
I think EK has the power, the will and the money to order everything and anything... they are smart enough to lock production slots and pull an A340-600 trick on the manufacturers any time. I think it was a great trick, and if you are in their position, I think you can afford the luxury of playing these games on the manufacturers. Why is it so unbelievable, that they just might order an equal amount of 787-10s if it lives up to their expectations, and later take delivery of the better performing type? Oh, and before anyone jumps on the issue of penalty money... think again... there will always be an other product the manufacturer will be happy to relocate your money on, so they will not lose you as a customer.
One big issue that bothers me is: I am not saying that the EK bubble will burst, or that there is no base for their shopping spree, but what most of the EK lovers fail to see, is that the run away success of EK came at a time when they managed to offer superior service on superior equipment in a market environment where everyone was pulling back on expenses by offering low value services, reducing costs, etc, etc... EK has to face several issues in the future:
-Declining standards mainly due to fast expansion (I can testify on that one for sure)
-New EK style wannabes like QR, EY (and their product is one to look at for sure!)
-Fast growing, and very, very high standard competitors on one of their target market: India (think of what 9W, AI, or IT will have to offer!!!)
-In all together they will face new and even superior products like the stunning new SQ product, the upcoming QF upgrade and many, many more carriers growing up and even surpassing them sometimes.
In all together, I am not saying that there is no hope for their business plan, on the contrary... if anyone can do it, EK can... but it will be much harder and at some point their growth will stall, or there will be a total showdown between their competitors, or something will definitely happen for sure. The only thing I am optimistic about is that us, the travellers will be the big winners with airlines fighting to the dead with lower prices, possibly better services, etc... I hope...
As for their plan to start up new bases abroad to enter new markets... well, I don't see governments allowing EK to ruin their local carriers, at least not in this form... but who knows?
BlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1937 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8711 times:
Well, well, well...
First I've mentioned the hypothetical possibility of Boeing developing the "true NG" 777 variants, dubbed 777-8 (777-200LR replacement) and 777-9 (777-300ER replacement).
Now mr. Tim "I tell OEMs what to design" Clark is speaking about the mysterious "777X".
Interesting... V E R Y interesting!!!
Now get your f***ing Jumbo Jet off my airport!!! - AC/DC "Ain't No Fun To Be a Millionaire"
MSYtristar From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8634 times:
Quoting EI321 (Reply 9): Emirates will eventually have about 100 777's
I know that. And I also know that no matter how you look at it, EK will have such a huge fleet of widebodies (well, they do now really) down the road that the chance is there that overcapacity could...hence "could"...become an issue for them down the road. DXB is not an immune market. There is always a limit on future growth. As an enthusiast I love to see them order everything under the sun, but I just have a hunch that they could be dealing with a rather unpleasant situation down the road once all the 380's join the fleet, as well as the hundreds of other new wide body deliveries. I wish them luck, of course.
DIA From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3273 posts, RR: 26
Reply 13, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8583 times:
Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 12): As an enthusiast I love to see them order everything under the sun, but I just have a hunch that they could be dealing with a rather unpleasant situation down the road once all the 380's join the fleet, as well as the hundreds of other new wide body deliveries. I wish them luck, of course.
I agree with much of what MSYtristar is saying. Especially his thoughts on the used widebody market just down the road...just filled with an incredible variety and amount of our large birds. I think we will be seeing many widebody a/c being broken up long before they, well, live the life of a NWA DC-9. Future oil prices don't exactly help this situation either.
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
A350 From Germany, joined Nov 2004, 1107 posts, RR: 22
Reply 14, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8488 times:
Their strategy is economy of scale: always have the bigger planes with lower CASM and therefore be able to offer the superiour product and the denser network at better prices than the competition. So they are kind of purchase addicted since they have to keep the distance to the fast growing rivals. I don't see the other middle east carriers as a real threat for them, EK is the original. The indian airlines however may become a tough competitor with a natural advantage on the indian O&D market as well as on the Europe-East Asia market. Their business model is risky, but sound.
Concerning the article cited by the thread starter, I wonder if this is a diplomatic way to say goodbye to the Dreamliner rather than something else. Read it carefully: "Emirates has left the door open... for its 747-8I and proposed "777X" enhanced" . He speaks about hypothetical airplanes (since he wants a shrinked 748), no word about the 787.
Jacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 17, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8152 times:
Quoting A350 (Reply 14): therefore be able to offer the superiour product and the denser network at better prices than the competition.
....flying EK a couple of times per year every year, I don't find some of EK's prices to be completely competitive..
Quoting A350 (Reply 14): He speaks about hypothetical airplanes (since he wants a shrinked 748)
....he wants a plane which can carry pax/cargo a desired distance...it doesn't matter if its a shrink or not..the "shrunk" version would have been able to do that however Boeing is working on getting the current size of the B748I to EK's range specification....
BlueSkys From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8152 times:
Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 12): DXB is not an immune market. There is always a limit on future growth
No region is ever immune, But.... Dubai is the fastest developing city in the world, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. UAE is being smart about it, they do not want to base their economy entirely on oil and are doing a VERY good job of creating sustainability after black gold. Dubai is probably the most stable investment out of most world cities.
Lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13788 posts, RR: 100
Reply 20, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 7071 times:
EK knows they will order again, so its
From the thread launch article:
Quote: Tim Clark says that the majority of the firmly ordered XWBs will be used for replacement of older aircraft, and there is still a longer-term requirement where Boeing could compete with the improved 777 derivative that it is studying.
"Fifty-eight of the 70 firm A350 orders are replacements for our A330s, A340-300s, 777-200s, and 777-300 Classics," says Clark.
Considering the new growth markets EK is entering, they will later need a new airframe. But for the 748I, I agree with many others here, its LAX or bust. Boeing also has to watch out for the A380R. But that depends on production slots. My sources say Boeing can increase production by 6 a year (yea, a mere 1/2 per month) given about a 20 month lead time. They can even increase production by 2 a year with very little lead time (but at a price-premium for the first units). So if Boeing will promise the range (contractually), then they would have a leg in. Not that Boeing's crying over EK's 77W acceptance rate...
Quoting PEET7G (Reply 10): -Fast growing, and very, very high standard competitors on one of their target market: India (think of what 9W, AI, or IT
Ok, after you talked service, why is AI on that list? Seriously 9W is getting a good reputation among western Expatriates who do a lot of business in India. They #1 complaint? Frequency or the lack of it. In other words, they want to see more growth! IT? Needs to go international fast, but that's its own thread.
Hence why we talk CASM with EK:
Quoting A350 (Reply 14): Their strategy is economy of scale: always have the bigger planes with lower CASM
EK has no choice but to have a low CASM. RASM tends to be a bit higher for non-stop service. (Sometimes quite a bit higher) So whatever aircraft EK orders, they have to recognize they'll have to get competitive. However, India to the US... until there is an economical non-stop aircraft, all of the hubs will compete on their individual merits. And that will generate a lot of a.net discussions!
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 17): however Boeing is working on getting the current size of the B748I to EK's range specification....
And that is the best solution for all around. Hence why the group of consultant structural engineers I want to hire won't be released from Boeing! Hence why many contracts are called "golden handcuffs." Hmmm... I shouldn't look in the mirror when making comments like that...
Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
EGCC777LR From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 164 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 6992 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW PHOTO SCREENER
Is it better to gamble and have spare capacity? I have no idea with this but I'm sure someone here has.
Which is better here, forgetting the original cost of purchasing the aircraft, because for that lets say that with all the oil money behind them EK can afford to buy all the outstanding planes they have on order. Is it better to have...
1. A full B777-200 having to fly at Max weight and fuel
2. A 70% full B777-300 that is obviously flying way under capacity
My question is this, does it always make sense to fly the correct capacity plane at 100% capacity over a plane that is larger than required at a lower capacity, would EK be better off, excluding the purchase of the frames to have over capacity in their fleet than vice versa, is it econoically stupid to have a larger aircraft flying a route at say 70%.
If it's not that stupid to fly a larger plane undercapacity, then surely this is an acceptable risk to take, if the market goes crazy, they your extra capacity is to your advantage, however, if your flying to your capacity and the market goes crazy, you will surely struggle to respond as new aircraft and crew would not be that easy to source at short notice.
Flown On B704,722,732/3/4/7/8/9,744,752,762/3/4,772,77W,A319,A320,A321,A330,A388,L1011,F-50,BAE146,CRJ100, Dash-8. Left
MCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6828 times:
I don't think they'll order the 787 or the 748, they're just blowing smoke to keep Airbus' salespersons on therir toes.
I also think it's brilliant of Boeing not to invest heavily in the continued success of one customer.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31829 posts, RR: 85
Reply 23, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6773 times:
I still don't see a 747-8I in EK's future, no matter what it's specs are. At best, they'd lease some until they can get A380-800Rs.
As for the 787-10, a ~550,000mt model using a stretched 787-9 fuselage and all other systems would make a fantastic A330-300 and 777-200A replacement, offering more passengers, more belly cargo, and better range. It would also do alright as a 777-300A replacement, as well.
Since EK flies the 772 and 773 and was rumored to take 30 A333s at Dubai...
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 8): ...most of the A350's are for fleet replacement of earlier aircraft...
EK will replace 8 A343s in 2014 with the first batch of A350-900s. Then they will replace the 12 777-300As with 20 A350-900s. They will then replace the 10 A345s and 9 772Es with more A350-900s. The other 23 units are likely for expansion.
LAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 24, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6747 times:
Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 20): EK has no choice but to have a low CASM. RASM tends to be a bit higher for non-stop service. (Sometimes quite a bit higher) So whatever aircraft EK orders, they have to recognize they'll have to get competitive. However, India to the US... until there is an economical non-stop aircraft, all of the hubs will compete on their individual merits. And that will generate a lot of a.net discussions!
Within a year, India-US market will see a lot of capacity from Indian carriers.
Jet will continue to add new cities on India and US side through BRU--I expect three more cities, LAX, IAD, and ORD by the end of 2008.
AI will start its operations through MUC, and it is reasonable to assume that they will have flights to at least three NA cities.
IT will be eligible to fly by August 2008 and should be able to start operations to three NA cities by 2009. However, IT is going to pursue a non-stop strategy to US--it may be a game changer if done right.
: As I said above, is it really plausable that guys like us can cop this, but Airbus themselves cant?
: EK always seems to be on a spending spree! But I wonder, if EK is being a little too ambitious?
: That should have been 12 777-300s replaced with 20 A350-1000s (per Wiki).
: DXB and the other Middle East cities will always be hubs. There will never be nearly enough in Dubai, (or Abu Dhabi or Doha, etc), to make it a huge e
: I'm going to quote you out of order as this is what I feel is the game changer. The "natural advantage" 9W, IT, and AI enjoy is the ability to bypass
: EK does not appear like an organization that does not know what it is doing - and far into the future. And they are the only people who need to know
: "Boeing is also working on engine and aerodynamic improvements in the 777-300ER and 777-200LR aircraft, , according to Mr Carson. "We (Boeing and GE)
: EK didn't like the size or performance of the original 350. They didn't really seem to care a lot about the materials. If Boeing can indeed improve t
: Dubai only makes sense as a hub for so many routes. For the majority of the world DXB is not a convenient hub and for that reason EK will not be able
: If Boeing decides to give 777 a brand new composite wing, it will extend the market life of the 777 family by at least another 20 years. I'd say prob
: May I as you: "Why not?" What have made you reach this conclusion?
: Just imagine the effect on the whole network if EK were ever able to purchase BA to get a LHR European hub. Add in a US west coast hub and they would
: Have you looked at a globe? Dubai is very convenient for about 70% of the World's population. The other side of the World from Dubai is the middle of
: EL321, its simple, The Airbus sales men are paid to guess just how much more or less a given airline is willing to pay for a Airbus instead of the pl
: It only works as a hub as long as airlines need to stop there for fuel, or they are flying EK. The Asian competition isn't sitting still while EK goe
: Well, it's going to take a good few years before we know if that's the case or not. But again, as an example, just look at the UK airports that EK se
: I totally agree with you Scbriml. Though EK doesn't fly from Oslo yet, I know it will happen sooner or later. For me it would be perfect to fly EK fr
: How far is too far out of the way? Dubai and any of the Gulf hub airports are a bit off the great circle between UK and Pakistan or Indian airports, b
: Not yet it doesn't. The present airport is more like a refurbished hangar. Not enough room, overwhelmed rest-rooms (though the staff try very hard to
: I think he's talking about the new airport, not DXB. DXB should improve significantly once the terminal extension fully opens.
: Why not, maybe they will follow QR´s lead this time. Go for A350´s as well as B787´s. The EK order was for sure a little wake up call for Boeing.
: Yeh - wondered about that (smile). Like a lot of people (especially EK executives?), I am looking forward to the new DXB airport. I feel that EK are
: I can think that the 787-10 could replace the 777-300 (non ER) while the A350 will replace the A330/A340/77W on longhaul flights.
: Each airline has an actual seat mile cost for each route in the system. Offering a ticket thru your hub with segments that have a total distance subst
: They have been doing 20% RPK increase of late, and still being very profitable. Many of those new aircraft as you have shown in a round about way wil