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Critical Evaluation Of Mexicos Aviation Business  
User currently offlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 6364 posts, RR: 32
Posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2919 times:
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My intention is to make this thread a serious discussion as to what is really going on into Mexico's Commercial Aviation skies.

What is the future?

I see LCC's fighting each other and the established ones such as MEX, AM et al for rapidly dwindwling market shares. They are also offering fares that are simply not covering their overall costs. That can't last forever. How long will they be able to sustain this?. Protracted fare wars against the majors? Please. The LCC's will be the loosers, as the majors have big reserves and now, at least in the case of AeroMexico, significant numbers of capital injections in the coming months. They also have the ability to rapidly enter significant high yield long haul markets, barred from the LCC's, so far, granted. But with important yields in cargo and in passengers for the majors.

What about mangement quality? As an example, I cite "Vivaaerobus" One day they fly to Morelia. Then the next they are off to Cuernavaca. They go to Acapulco next, Leon afterwards, then back to Monterrey for a sudden rotation to Cancun. Their schedule looks like its decided on the spot, for that particular day. How does that work? Yes, they are the only real a la "Southwest" clone in Mexico but their operation looks pretty disorganized and unstructured.

Volaris and Interjet have a nice, coherent business plan, but they are capturing market share at fares below cost. I am aware they both have solid finacial backing, but you can't keep a loosing operation flying forever on company capitalization if it is not meeting a reasonable margin above costs. Sooner or later the business operation has to lead towards increasing revenue by adjusting tariffs to reality or by engaging in severe cost cutting measures. Will this cost cutting compromise safety? What are Volaris and Interjet Plans? Create market share? Not a solution either as Domestic Market share currently is stagnant and pulverized among many players in the Mexican aviation scene.

Then you have ALMA, in my opinion, the smartest of the new comers. They got small planes, with subsequent smaller maintenance costs, good turnarounds, great service and a route structure that stays away from the majors. Their occupancy numbers are high, close to 70% and are quickly becoming Guadalajara's preferred carrier for Business people.

And now for the safety issues. Is the DGAC coping with the exponential growth of air traffick in Mexico? Are the flight deck crews flying the state of the art Airbuses, the temperamental 737's the new Regional Jets, the Embraers, receiving the full, no hold barred training they and the flying public are entitled to?

What about the SENEAM. Is it currently capable of taking all this exponential growth in the traffic flying through the Mexican skies. Do we have to face a situation like in Brasil, where INFRAERO has had to limit the airline industry growth due to its various bottlenecks, like the one that caused that Gol 737-800 to collide with the Legacy in the jungle.
Where will the money the SENEAM will need in the short term come from to cope with the hughe rates of growth of Mexican Aviation? Should be wait for a similar tragedy like in the Amazon Jungle?

I wrote all ot the above, no to get people pissed at me. Called me a pessimist or an ignorant bastard. I simply want to see the aviation in my country reach first world status. But the right way. No the "Al ahi se va, y a ver que pasa" I tried to write some of my concerns for Aviation in Mexico for the coming months.

46 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 6364 posts, RR: 32
Reply 1, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2900 times:
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Sorry. I forget to add a few misclaimers:

I am not intending to malign any of our younguer "juniors" in whose hands Mexican Aviation is in this days. Nor was I tried being sarcasting in any of my post regarding the future of flight here in Mexico. I did implied corrumption in many areas but tried to refrain from being to obvious. Cheers!. i expect comments, please. MAybe what I just wrote was a simple diatribe.


User currently offlineJuventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 2851 times:

I'll start by saying I like the transformation of the Mexican aviation industry. Let the forces of an open-market decide who wins and who losses. Of all the major industries in Mexico, the airline sector will be the first one without a monopoly. Besides, the airline industry in is too centralized around Mexico City, with all these new entrants, now there are hubs developing in TLC, GDL, and MTY, better distribution.......

Quoting AR385 (Thread starter):
I see LCC's fighting each other and the established ones such as MEX, AM et al for rapidly dwindwling market shares

Yes it is, good for the consumer. This should force Mexicana and Aeromexico to spread their wings a little bit, they are way too timid, and conservative, they depend too much on the domestic and U.S markets. The amount of widebody jets, international market share, and long-haul destinations served by AM and MX is unacceptable for an economy the size of Mexico. I said it before, in the 90s, Varig was always a step ahead of AM, now it seems like TAM, LAN, Avianca and Varig again will jump ahead of AM and MX on long-haul international flying. If you won't keep up with the likes of Singapore, Cathay and Continental, at least keep up with the Latin American carriers. Don't be surprise if Copa beats Mexicana to Europe.......

Quoting AR385 (Thread starter):
Volaris and Interjet have a nice, coherent business plan, but they are capturing market share at fares below cost. I am aware they both have solid finacial backing, but you can't keep a loosing operation flying forever on company capitalization if it is not meeting a reasonable margin above costs. Sooner or later the business operation has to lead towards increasing revenue by adjusting tariffs to reality or by engaging in severe cost cutting measures. Will this cost cutting compromise safety? What are Volaris and Interjet Plans? Create market share? Not a solution either as Domestic Market share currently is stagnant and pulverized among many players in the Mexican aviation scene.

Consolidation will take care of that, and believe me its coming. In a couple of years, we should be able to tell who stays, and who will be bought. Of all the new airlines Volaris and Interjet impress me the most, but only time will tell. Won't be too long before see a couple of mergers/adquisitions.

Quoting AR385 (Thread starter):
And now for the safety issues. Is the DGAC coping with the exponential growth of air traffick in Mexico? Are the flight deck crews flying the state of the art Airbuses, the temperamental 737's the new Regional Jets, the Embraers, receiving the full, no hold barred training they and the flying public are entitled to?

I don't think that's a cause for concern.

Quoting AR385 (Thread starter):
What about the SENEAM. Is it currently capable of taking all this exponential growth in the traffic flying through the Mexican skies

Again, I wouldn't worry about this, traffic in the skies is well managed. But I would worry about the airport infracstucture keeping up witht the growth. TLC and a few others are well behind.

My biggest worry right now is Mexicana and Aeromexico's dependence on the US market, what if one day Southwest enters the market???? Also foreign carriers holding 75% on the international market share, not good. The domestic market, well the Mexican airline industry cannot support 14 airlines, some trimming will have to be done. I have my guesses.......

Feliz dia de accion de Gracias


User currently offlineAM744 From Mexico, joined Jun 2001, 1780 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 2848 times:

There are many aspects that have their roots in the same old problems: corruption, influences, etc...

Regarding safety. Aviation accidents, whether civil, GA or military are not properly investigated, reports are not public, or at least not as public as they should be. A civil helicopter goes down and the army seals the area. So much for the DGAC jurisdiction  Yeah sure .

Maintenance audits are used as a pressure tool as much as a safety measure. Taesa, Azteca, AeroCalifornia might have been unsafe. But the question arises: ¿Are there anymore unsafe than AM? Didn't AM broke a couple of DC-9s? Nobody said a thing about grounding a Cintra company. Please don't bash me. I love AM, but the field wasn´t leveled on that occasion.

Also, the Texcoco airport fiasco was huge and sorry, but I don't buy the story that goes as if the government respected a few peasants will. In any case the government wanted to pay peanuts for valuable land with legitimate owners. They were uncapable of selling the project and negotiate a win-win situation.

Taxes are high, thus turning air travel into a luxury.

So the main obstacle is IMO incompetent and/or corrupt authorities.


User currently offlineLH498 From Germany, joined May 2007, 215 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2820 times:

The evolution of Mexican aviation in recent times is very welcome; finally more and more people are able to take a plane, have more choices and more direct options to travel.
In the end the market will decide who survives and how.

However my concern is the infrastructure. I am not convinced the privatization of the airports in Mexico was done properly, as a monopoly (ASA) was privatized into smaller regional monopolies; competition among airports is rather small, if at all.
As many times, money was more important than long therm investment commitment and/or a long therm master plan for the airports.
OTOH, let's hope that this time a new airport for Mexico City is finally built. It is badly needed

In the case of AM and MX, they need to realize that in their current situation, they must evolve or perish. (or better said, their unions, specially ASSA).
They should bet on: Longhaul flights, Premium PAX and Cargo.

As legacy carriers, they should also take advantage of Mexico's geographical location. MEX can be a very good hub for connecting passengers between Latin-America and the Midwest & West-Coast of the US and specially Asia.
And it is here that the infrastructure problems show up: the current MEX is not designed to be a big hub. Another argument for a new airport, which should have at least one runway long enough to reduce Take-Off restrictions significantly to allow nonstop flights to Asia (see e.g.DEN).

my two pesos


User currently offlineAbrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5124 posts, RR: 55
Reply 5, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2806 times:



Quoting Juventus (Reply 2):
Yes it is, good for the consumer. This should force Mexicana and Aeromexico to spread their wings a little bit, they are way too timid, and conservative, they depend too much on the domestic and U.S markets. The amount of widebody jets, international market share, and long-haul destinations served by AM and MX is unacceptable for an economy the size of Mexico. I said it before, in the 90s, Varig was always a step ahead of AM, now it seems like TAM, LAN, Avianca and Varig again will jump ahead of AM and MX on long-haul international flying. If you won't keep up with the likes of Singapore, Cathay and Continental, at least keep up with the Latin American carriers. Don't be surprise if Copa beats Mexicana to Europe.......



Quoting LH498 (Reply 4):
In the case of AM and MX, they need to realize that in their current situation, they must evolve or perish. (or better said, their unions, specially ASSA).
They should bet on: Longhaul flights, Premium PAX and Cargo.

= First of all, thanks for bringing a good topic on A.Net. This is an excellent point that needs further discussion. In many airline markets, the trend has been for LCCs to capture pleasure fliers, while legacies move upscale (if they want to survive) and more global. It amazes me that a country of Mexico's stature has such unimaginative airlines. To me, it represents the greater malaise of being obsessed with the U.S., and a love affair with OECD markets. I do think that the countries in Latin America that would do well in the long term (Brasil, Argentina, Chile, etc.) need to have a vision beyond the Americas. I think airlines in Mexico reflects this. Of course, it has to be matched by demand ... but AM/MX MUST experiment and broaden markets. China would be an excellent next step. Moving AM/MX to aspire for the status of the best in Americas is also another noteworthy cause.

Cheers,
A.



Live, and let live.
User currently offlineMTYFREAK From Mexico, joined Apr 2004, 377 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2802 times:

Hello AR385!

Long time no see,

very interesting topic indeed,

Quoting AR385 (Thread starter):
They are also offering fares that are simply not covering their overall costs.

I agree there but I don't think these low fare like Vivas famous 1 peso (.10 cents US) will last much longer, I believe that is just a strategy to get the people that never flew before to actually fly, The demand to travel within Mexico is huge and keep in mind that travel distance inside Mexico are very long and passenger trains don't exist here, there's only 2 ways to get around, the highway or the airway

Here's an example of what I'm trying to say (flame me if you will) but for example, in Mexico we didn't have the need for coffee shop's until starbucks (yeah I know...) arrived to the country and by opening a lot of shops they auto-generated a demand for coffee that didn't exist before, that's what I think LCC's are doing right now in Mexico, They will take a good 3 to 4 years to auto-generate the demand they need so that they can then raise their fares.

Quoting AR385 (Thread starter):
What about the SENEAM. Is it currently capable of taking all this exponential growth in the traffic flying through the Mexican skies.

As a pilot I can tell you that just like LH498 says, I'm more worried about airport infrastructure than the SENEAM infrastructure, airports are getting more and more crowded and there's just no sign at all of improving capacity on a medium term.

just a few thoughts,

Best regards.



Only here for the beer...
User currently offlineJuventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 2781 times:



Quoting Abrelosojos (Reply 5):
It amazes me that a country of Mexico's stature has such unimaginative airlines. To me, it represents the greater malaise of being obsessed with the U.S., and a love affair with OECD markets. I do think that the countries in Latin America that would do well in the long term (Brasil, Argentina, Chile, etc.) need to have a vision beyond the Americas.

Yes that's what I'm talking about. The Mexican airline industry, just like the Mexican economy is too dependent on the US.

One very important thing to think about, the South American carriers don't have the burden of competing with the US airlines the way AM and MX have to. If you flight from CDG to SCL, EZE or GRU, you pretty much choose between AF and the South American airline depending on the country. If you fly between CDG and MEX, you have the following choices: AF, AM, plus the 5 US legacy carriers that serve CDG. Having you connect in ATL, MIA, DFW, IAH, JFK is convenient for the airlines, that's why alliances were created. But still, AM & MX should do more.


User currently offlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 6364 posts, RR: 32
Reply 8, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 2758 times:
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Quoting Juventus (Reply 2):
In a couple of years, we should be able to tell who stays, and who will be bought.

Would you care to write down your educated guesses? Furthermore, some will consolidate, but which will be gone all together?

[Edited 2007-11-21 15:48:16]

User currently offlineLatinplane From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 2737 posts, RR: 14
Reply 9, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 2702 times:

Quoting Juventus (Reply 7):
One very important thing to think about, the South American carriers don't have the burden of competing with the US airlines the way AM and MX have to. If you flight from CDG to SCL, EZE or GRU, you pretty much choose between AF and the South American airline depending on the country. If

This is not a good argument. Let me remind you of Argentina's case in which you can clearly see the American carriers dominating the market by far against their Argentine competition. On the only route where Aerolineas Argentinas has a regular presence, the EZE-MIA route, AR flies once a day--sometimes with an A310--when American Airlines flies something like 2 or 3--with 777s. It was even worst a few years ago when Argentina was a designated Category 2 country so AR couldn't add extra frequencies or destinations leaving the American carriers something like 85% control over the market.

It is quite the opposite, the South American airlines don't have the TREMENDOUS advantage of living next door to the U.S. and having 20% of their population living in U.S. territory, with the lucrative market that this represents. What would the Mexican airlines be without their bread and butter routes created by the Mexican diaspora living in the U.S?

For example, take a look at Mexicana's FAT-GDL route which has been sold-out for five days this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. This route is doing so well that MX has turned this flight into a daily event even after the Christmas holidays which ends in early January. So succesful is this route that Mexicana's plane is the largest passenger aircraft that lands at Fresno Yosemite International! In the future you'll see in other secondary routes accross the U.S. with Mexicana de Aviacion service - the South American carriers don't have this advantage.

  LatinPlane

[Edited 2007-11-21 23:00:33]

User currently offlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 6364 posts, RR: 32
Reply 10, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 2691 times:
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Quoting LH498 (Reply 4):
However my concern is the infrastructure.

So, is it your belief that infrastructure expenditures and development will simply not keep up to demand? And what type of infrastructure do you mean. Simple airport construction infrastructure, or do you mean more serious infrastrucutre, like ILS systems, runway facilities, navigation aids, you get my drift.

Quoting AM744 (Reply 3):
GA or military are not properly investigated, reports are not public,

Not to challenge you hostily, but do you have concrete evidence of this?

Quoting Juventus (Reply 2):
Let the forces of an open-market decide who wins and who losses.

First of all, let me define myself as a free market, liberal economist. I do however believe certain industries should not left themselves at the whims of the market. In civil aviation particularly, the market can somewhat not be the best way to allocate resources. Any challenges on this proposition?


User currently offlineMTYFREAK From Mexico, joined Apr 2004, 377 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 3 days ago) and read 2679 times:



Quoting AM744 (Reply 3):
Aviation accidents, whether civil, GA or military are not properly investigated, reports are not public

They are, just need to ask for them at the DGAC in SCT or at "Comandancia" office at the airports which are an extension of DGAC.



Only here for the beer...
User currently offlineJuventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 2659 times:

Quoting Latinplane (Reply 9):
It is quite the opposite, the South American airlines don't have the TREMENDOUS advantage of living next door to the U.S. and having 20% of their population living in U.S. territory, with the lucrative market that this represents. What would the Mexican airlines be without their bread and butter routes created by the Mexican diaspora living in the U.S?

Exactly, this is why I keep on saying AM and MX depend too much on the US. Traffic between the US and Mexico is healthy, and keeps AM nad MX fat and happy. But passenger traffic between Europe and Mexico, I can assure a good chunck of that is grabbed by the US airlines. I flew for a US airline four years ago, I saw large groups of European passengers clear customs in the US and jump right into my plane for the Mexico flight....Once on a flight to GDL, 90% of the passenger load originated in Munich (according to the ticket agent who made us wait for them).

[Edited 2007-11-22 06:00:08]

User currently offlineAM744 From Mexico, joined Jun 2001, 1780 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 2642 times:



Quoting AR385 (Reply 10):
Not to challenge you hostily, but do you have concrete evidence of this?



Quoting MTYFREAK (Reply 11):
They are, just need to ask for them at the DGAC in SCT or at "Comandancia" office at the airports which are an extension of DGAC.

Alright, I might have been a bit over the top. I didn't know what MTYFREAK has shared. I'll try to check out those public reports.

My rant is rooted in the fact that DGAC made the Taesa crash at Uruapan look as if there was a serious maintenance fault (at least for media purposes) and they were even grounded. Maintenance wasn't the cause as P&W and the FAA (who were also involved in the investigations) also verified.

I think that we can all agree that DGAC is perfectible and that it would be helpful for the industry as a whole, providing a leveled field for all players.


User currently offlineLH498 From Germany, joined May 2007, 215 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2609 times:



Quoting AR385 (Reply 10):
So, is it your belief that infrastructure expenditures and development will simply not keep up to demand? And what type of infrastructure do you mean. Simple airport construction infrastructure, or do you mean more serious infrastructure, like ILS systems, runway facilities, navigation aids, you get my drift.

To answer your first question, well: look at TLC by the time it was developed into an alternate airport to MEX, it was already saturated. If that happened when air travel began its current growth, I doubt many airports will keep up to demand, further more some airports are already having some trouble(capacity and infrastructure wise).
The main problem in such matters, is that infrastructure planning in my querido Mexico is often carried out as a reaction, rather than as an action. And mostly by that time, the solution might be more expensive and/or badly carried out because the problem is already there and growing. Look at the new Terminal 2 at MEX, it is not the solution, the solution is a new airport.

Everything is needed. In some cases new airports(like MEX) and in others upgrading the existent ones to cope with the foreseen demand in the next 20-30 years NOW. Or at least begin to do it now. In this case I'm referring to runway and terminal capacity.

To be more concrete: (As long as there is no construction site near Mexico City) MEX may need to equip RWY 5L/23R with ILS, specially more with T2 becoming fully operational very soon and upgrading the whole ILS infrastructure to a higher CAT. For an airport this size(passenger#) it cannot be, that every fall and winter fog in the morning frequently shuts all Ops down for a couple of hours.
OTOH, GDL and MTY: Wouldn't they need a new runway and/or terminal in the next 5-10 years? I'm asking.
How about TIJ and others?


User currently offlineGhost77 From Mexico, joined Mar 2000, 5224 posts, RR: 51
Reply 15, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 2582 times:



Quoting Juventus (Reply 2):
Besides, the airline industry in is too centralized around Mexico City, with all these new entrants, now there are hubs developing in TLC, GDL, and MTY, better distribution.......

SUPERB IMPORTANT COMMENT!

Less people in GDL, MTY and rest of the country needs to come over to MEX... many new pair of routes are being opened to their benefit.. FINALLY.

This is also why AM and MX are loosing market share.

Quoting AM744 (Reply 3):
Maintenance audits are used as a pressure tool as much as a safety measure. Taesa, Azteca, AeroCalifornia might have been unsafe. But the question arises: ¿Are there anymore unsafe than AM? Didn't AM broke a couple of DC-9s? Nobody said a thing about grounding a Cintra company. Please don't bash me. I love AM, but the field wasn´t leveled on that occasion.

JR/ZE (plus own ZE internal problems) audits were political. All in order to help and give a little push to AM' sale and make more confy and very needed space and air to MEX carriers which were pusing the government *cough cough... MX/QA that competition was too much. If it wasn't for ZE's belly (carring 1.2M pax last 2006) i don't know how MX and AM would have been able to keep its share high.

Quoting AM744 (Reply 3):
Taxes are high, thus turning air travel into a luxury.

SUPERB COMMENT... PALOMITA Y SUBRAYADO....

TAXES... WILL KILL WROTH NOW as it has done in previous years as usual and receiving 3rd world services from GAP mainly. GACN, ASUR and AICM are at least doing the things far better.

Problem is not SENEAM, they will perfectly fit and fill the demand of ATC' services... problem is airport infrastructure. I second LH498, MEX needs ILS CAT3 on 23L/R and 05R if its possible, this would turn MEX into a very big investment, because when CAT III on runways is installed, you need to illuminate very well ALL your taxiways... it would be a HUGE investment... but the big use justify the needs.

Take note... MEX has boosted its capacity to 32-35M.... TLC is about to construct its 2nd runway plus boost capacity to 12M by 2012.

You can all read more here:

http://www.apm-group.com.mx/foro/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=102

Quoting Abrelosojos (Reply 5):
I do think that the countries in Latin America that would do well in the long term (Brasil, Argentina, Chile, etc.) need to have a vision beyond the Americas. I think airlines in Mexico reflects this.

Totally... new mexican airlines have a new vision.

Quoting Abrelosojos (Reply 5):
China would be an excellent next step. Moving AM/MX to aspire for the status of the best in Americas is also another noteworthy cause.

Totally. Have you seen MX active since AM's sale? They're announcing new routes here and there and plus 12 NEW A320s are on their way... 2 days ago, first was delivered plus 8 more Fokker 100s are coming to Click between now and all 2008.

My whole point of view of this....

JR will very slowly grow.

VW... being restructured for big new rumors is going to be sold and offered to whoever wants to buy it. Note... this will NOT happen anytime soon., i'm talking about further years... end of 08 or next to come.

5D.... ALMA its biiiiiiig headache.

AM is cutting stupidly capacity, around 4 to 8 MD88s will be subleased which is very good for them. Lets see what new owners have on mind... remember how we all felt when MX was finally on private hands?

MX will keep being the 1st in the international area, they just lack long haul service and a nice and good long haul fleet.
But they will get there.. i'm sure they will.

QA will keep growing beautifully on the domestic scene.

6A is about to boost its fleet... since they arrival of new low fare, they haven't grown but they have well keep their 10% market share and they want to continue as they are now.

IJ... is one of the best doing their jobs, averaging 110 pax from 150.

A5... doing nice too at TIJ... i kind of remember the good old days with GD... they're trying to emulate some routes and model. I consider them as well as Viva the true LCC.

Y4... next year will sure be 3rd largest carrier in Mexico and better AM watch for their toes carefully.

C4... They're ending with many 5D monopolies as well giving troubles to JR.

Viva... watch for them when they get more frames.. they might get to turn number 2 even over Volaris.

Cargo as always... dominated by foreign LAN with MY.

Numbers speak for them, if you want to take a look:

http://www.apm-group.com.mx/foro/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=89

g77



Ricardo Morales - flyAPM - ¡No es que maneje rapido, solo estoy volando lento!
User currently offlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 6364 posts, RR: 32
Reply 16, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 2504 times:
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How is the new terminal going to fulfill its role as a stopgap measure. To me, it's only a waste of money just to keep the urgently needed airport still in the drawing boards. I believe that unless Mexico gets its new Airport, 10 new terminals can be built but no dent will be made in the current AICM troubles.

User currently offlineJuventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 2488 times:



Quoting AR385 (Reply 16):
How is the new terminal going to fulfill its role as a stopgap measure. To me, it's only a waste of money just to keep the urgently needed airport still in the drawing boards

The Mexican government gave itself another 4-5 years to come up with the long term solution. This new T2, its a short time solution, a quick fix. Mexico City will need a new airport, with three "Terminal 2s", and preferebly three runways, no question about that.

But with AM and MX loosing market share, and Avolar, Interjet & Volaris increasing theirs, does anyone here think its more imperative 'RIGHT NOW' to concentrate on developing/upgrading Toluca rather than on a new MEX airport??


User currently offlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7592 posts, RR: 42
Reply 18, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2462 times:

There were several interesting news regarding the Mexican aviation industry in today's papers.

For starters, AM is making a tender offer of its own shares to go private. The idea is to buy out all minority shareholders, cancel the registration of AM's shares, delist the company off the Mexican Stock Exchange and operate as a privately-owned company. The capital injection should happen soon too and the idea is to float around 15% of the company in the Mexican Stock Exchange and maybe abroad in 3 years or so.

With respect to new routes, it seems AM is serious about MEX-TIJ-PVG-TIJ-MEX. The CEO has seemingly confirmed this and so has the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. FCO will happen too and it will be routed MEX-MTY-FCO. This is in my opinion a hint that a fifth 772ER is coming and maybe a second 763ER too (if it were a -200, then the MTY stopover would be unnecessary).

As Ghost said, AM will also cut routes where it cannot turn a profit and focus on long-haul. The arrival of the E190's will help service routes that are too thin for a 73G but where a plane bigger than the ERJ145 is needed (size, range, etc.).

On a semi-related news, BA publicly mentioned it wants to increase the number of weekly LHR-MEX flights until they reach one daily frequency. BA also dismissed the possibility of serving MTY or GDL.



Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offlineAM744 From Mexico, joined Jun 2001, 1780 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2448 times:



Quoting EddieDude (Reply 18):
On a semi-related news, BA publicly mentioned it wants to increase the number of weekly LHR-MEX flights until they reach one daily frequency. BA also dismissed the possibility of serving MTY or GDL.

Which would imply that AM will fly to London, so that BA can increase flights. Am I right?


User currently offlineAbrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5124 posts, RR: 55
Reply 20, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2448 times:



Quoting Latinplane (Reply 9):
This is not a good argument. Let me remind you of Argentina's case in which you can clearly see the American carriers dominating the market by far against their Argentine competition. On the only route where Aerolineas Argentinas has a regular presence, the EZE-MIA route, AR flies once a day--sometimes with an A310--when American Airlines flies something like 2 or 3--with 777s. It was even worst a few years ago when Argentina was a designated Category 2 country so AR couldn't add extra frequencies or destinations leaving the American carriers something like 85% control over the market.

It is quite the opposite, the South American airlines don't have the TREMENDOUS advantage of living next door to the U.S. and having 20% of their population living in U.S. territory, with the lucrative market that this represents. What would the Mexican airlines be without their bread and butter routes created by the Mexican diaspora living in the U.S?

For example, take a look at Mexicana's FAT-GDL route which has been sold-out for five days this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. This route is doing so well that MX has turned this flight into a daily event even after the Christmas holidays which ends in early January. So succesful is this route that Mexicana's plane is the largest passenger aircraft that lands at Fresno Yosemite International! In the future you'll see in other secondary routes accross the U.S. with Mexicana de Aviacion service - the South American carriers don't have this advantage.

LatinPlane

= This is all very good and dandy and I am not denying or debating your argument. I think I agree with Juventus that Mexico (and its airlines) need a bolder grander vision. VFR traffic ex-USA is EXTREMELY low yield and political ... walls being built, sheriffs tracking people down, NYS not being able to give driving licenses. These passengers are not concerned about airline loyalties; hence, if the aviation market were to continue opening up and LCCs granted access to U.S. markets (which they should), a real revolution would take place in Mexican airtravel and all these secondary cities would be connected and support frequencies.

HOWEVER, where will that leave the dominant players? AM? MX? This is where I think active globalization is needed ... and this has to follow Mexican foreign policy at large. Right now, the policy is dominated (granted understandably) by the U.S. However, in the longer run, in an increasingly globalized world, if Mexico were to continue growing for its companies and its citizens, it needs to find new markets. Having lived and travelled extensively in Latin America, I think countries in the continent have failed miserably in this respect. The ones that have are getting rich dividends ... Chile, and Brasil. Look at the quiet nexus of Brasil-India-South Africa ... trade growth and diversification is approx. 400% in some years! As much as Chavez is despised by the Latin elites on this board, his embracing countries outside the region will have stronger ramifications in the future. We can debate the merits of engaging in Iran ... but thats not the argument I am advocating here.

Finally, this vision for Mexico and its airlines have to happen at every level of policy making from ground up ... starting from those U Chicago/Harvard grad students who have a fantastic education, hang out with some other Latins, and then come back home to the same universe  Smile ... take advantage of where you are ... meet the Chinese, Indians, Turks ... build bridges. Mexico's future is there.

Cheers,
A.



Live, and let live.
User currently offlineAbrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5124 posts, RR: 55
Reply 21, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2445 times:

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 18):
With respect to new routes, it seems AM is serious about MEX-TIJ-PVG-TIJ-MEX. The CEO has seemingly confirmed this and so has the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. FCO will happen too and it will be routed MEX-MTY-FCO. This is in my opinion a hint that a fifth 772ER is coming and maybe a second 763ER too (if it were a -200, then the MTY stopover would be unnecessary).

= Great news. BTW, how is NRT doing for them? I flew them a few months back and J load was very weak.
Cheers,
A.

[Edited 2007-11-23 08:52:19]


Live, and let live.
User currently offlinePzurita1 From Greenland, joined Sep 2002, 1393 posts, RR: 14
Reply 22, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 2433 times:



Quoting LH498 (Reply 14):
OTOH, GDL and MTY: Wouldn't they need a new runway and/or terminal in the next 5-10 years?

Oh yes, they would certainly could use it. That is why OMA has "wisely" decided to build a new terminal in MTY. Terminal B will cost US$40M and increase capacity by... not 15M pax... not even 10M... no... reduce your expectation.... not even 5M... no... only 1.5M more pax!!!!!, for an aiport which will close 2007 serving more than 6M pax.

I guess that kind of investment is just done to say "Hey!, take a look we are investing in Nuevo León, but we really do not care in future demand! (nor apparentely, in current demand)

Such a pity that a new terminal will be that useless.

pZ



Next flight: IAH-DBX-MRU-ANT
User currently offlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7592 posts, RR: 42
Reply 23, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 2407 times:



Quoting Abrelosojos (Reply 21):
BTW, how is NRT doing for them?

I recall several recent posts by Ghost in the sense that the loads, but more importantly, the yields, are good. I don't know the specific loads in J, but in my opinion cargo is or should be the main driver of this flight. I recall reading somewhere around the time the flight was launched that AM had secured a cargo contract with Toyota, which owns an assembly facility near TIJ.



Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offlineElPelon From Mexico, joined Jul 2003, 127 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 2400 times:

Is official.. MEX-TIJ-PVG-TIJ-MEX to start next March 2008, and the MEX-MTY-FCO to start next April 2008. This according to Andres Conesa, during the EMB190 presentation.


ElPelon
25 MIAMIx707 : Hey guys any of you have any info on the new Mexican BAe-146 operator Ka´an Beel Air? They should be taking delivery of two aircraft soon. I looked a
26 Ghost77 : With all respect to you Abrelosojos, not for you, but for these carriers... who cares where they end up? Hopefully they do what they have and copy an
27 Abrelosojos : = Jaja. Re-read my comments. I am agreeing with you 100%. Thats was my entire point when arguing against Latinplane. And, I did not make the argument
28 XA744 : Everyone, very interesting and authoritative comments by each one of you !!! To be discussed in a very serious way... ... What could be done in order
29 Post contains links Ghost77 : Hi Miamix707! Here's more info: http://www.apm-group.com.mx/foro/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=28 KB Air is about to start very soon, due February 2008 with
30 AR385 : Will you please illuminate in the cause of the crash if not maintenance wise. And I meant this totally candidly
31 AR385 : So, how does our DGAC stack up against other LatAm countries and, heck, for that matter, is it a player in the same league as the CAA, the FAA, the F
32 AR385 : I tend to challenge that statement. Care to ellaborate fully on why is that?
33 AR385 : Basically because they have a poor-piss, arrogant strategy. Reminds of Marie Antoinettes "Let them eat cake"
34 AR385 : From having seen how they operate here in MTY, which is cahotically, (and that's a generous way to put it) plus their lack of a coherent route struct
35 AM744 : Hot-shot pilot (may he and everybody in that a/c RIP) took off without charts, since he knew that there was high ground near the airport he said, "me
36 Post contains images Abrelosojos : = Probably because business ties between China and Mexico are growing faster than political ones ? PVG is closer than BJS also. -A.
37 Ghost77 : Easy... do what Volaris is doing... they have a very motivated staff.... copying good things by the book from WN, but from what i've seen and heard b
38 AR385 : Tell me Ghost, Is it a good read? , I've had it for years but never read it. Do you reccommend I do? Or is it another one of those ego-driven-self gl
39 LH498 : When Terminal 2 becomes fully operational it is the intention of the airport authorities to split the use of each runway depending to which terminal
40 AR385 : No challenge. I rather meant explanation. Sorry.
41 Fyano773 : My sister's friend works for AM and is appointed to AM's office at IPADE or something like that; she told her the flight is profitable because AM has
42 Ghost77 : It was a very good read for me, specially reading all techniques and strategies he used to turn the airline From Worst to First... and reading how th
43 MIAMIx707 : Hey what's good Ghost?! Thanks for the link!!! It talks about that you guys already know the corporate image but I didn't see it, do you have any link
44 BAC111 : Shifting gears away from AM/MX and their future-- Does anyone know the estimated opening date of CUN's new runway? Parallel to 12-30 I take it? Now th
45 Hondah35 : The biggest obstacle to the Mexican carriers is the airport and highway infrastructure itself like many have mentioned. MEX could be be serving as a h
46 EddieDude : I think GDL plays and will continue to play an important role in terms of flights to/from the U.S. Millions of Mexican-Americans fly each year once o
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