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Why No BOS-NRT Nonstop?  
User currently offlinePhxmkeflyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 290 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 5339 times:

Simple question really...but I thought that there would be at least one carrier flying this route nonstop and was surprised to find that there isn't. Any explanation why not?

Thanks!

40 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineExaauadl From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (6 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 5330 times:

the market is just large enough...barely...UA looked at it but here is the problem....BOS isnt a hub and isnt as large as say NYC. There are numerous connect points to NRT from BOS like JFK, EWR, IAD, DTW, ORD, MSP, LAX, SFO, SEA, YYZ.

While the market is just barely large enough, youd have to capture over 90% of the local market just to make a penny. Given BOS lack of hub status and ability to connect to NRT over nearly a dozen point, it is unlikely any nonstop would be able to get more than 75% of the market. If BOS then has large markets to points beyond NRT such as PEK, HKG, ICN, TPE, then perhaps there might be some possibility with UA, NW or JL.


User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11116 posts, RR: 62
Reply 2, posted (6 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 5321 times:

As Exaauadl said, the market simply isn't large enough. Connections - mostly on AA through ORD and JFK, UA through ORD, and CO through EWR - handle the market fine.

Back in 1999, AA applied for and received approval of a daily BOS-NRT MD11 flight. They were all set to go, and AA actively sought slots at Narita for the service, but it never materialized. After the tech bubble burst, the bottom fell out from under this route, which would have been very heavily run with tech- and research-related travel.


User currently offlineBobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6342 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (6 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 5312 times:



Quoting Commavia (Reply 2):
As Exaauadl said, the market simply isn't large enough. Connections - mostly on AA through ORD and JFK, UA through ORD, and CO through EWR - handle the market fine.

The last figures I saw showed that NWA was the leader in the connecting market from BOS to NRT via DTW and MSP.


User currently offlineBAGoldEx From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 311 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (6 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 5289 times:



Quoting Bobnwa (Reply 3):
The last figures I saw showed that NWA was the leader in the connecting market from BOS to NRT via DTW and MSP.

Just off of personal experience traveling BOS-Asia on AA, UA and others I have a very hard time believing that.


User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11116 posts, RR: 62
Reply 5, posted (6 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 5275 times:



Quoting Bobnwa (Reply 3):
The last figures I saw showed that NWA was the leader in the connecting market from BOS to NRT via DTW and MSP.

Yep, they're big, too. All of these airlines are big in the market. The only U.S. legacies that aren't are US - obviously, because they don't even fly to NRT! - and DL because connecting from BOS to NRT over ATL is a bit out of the way.


User currently offlineA330323X From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 3039 posts, RR: 44
Reply 6, posted (6 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 5243 times:



Quoting Commavia (Reply 2):
Back in 1999, AA applied for and received approval of a daily BOS-NRT MD11 flight. They were all set to go, and AA actively sought slots at Narita for the service, but it never materialized.

BOS-NRT was also one of the routes promised (on projected route maps and the like) to start if the UA/US merger got off the ground, as then the combined carrier would have critical mass at both ends.



I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11116 posts, RR: 62
Reply 7, posted (6 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 5234 times:



Quoting A330323X (Reply 6):
BOS-NRT was also one of the routes promised (on projected route maps and the like) to start if the UA/US merger got off the ground, as then the combined carrier would have critical mass at both ends.

Yeah, remember that, too.

Does anyone still have a copy of that route map they put out back then - May 24, 2000, if I remember correctly - with all the routes they said they'd start once the two merged? I haven't seen that in ages! (Probably good for a laugh now.)


User currently offlineA330323X From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 3039 posts, RR: 44
Reply 8, posted (6 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 5213 times:



Quoting Commavia (Reply 7):
Does anyone still have a copy of that route map they put out back then - May 24, 2000, if I remember correctly - with all the routes they said they'd start once the two merged?

I do, but it's on a different computer. Will look for it later if I get a chance.



I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
User currently offlineBobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6342 posts, RR: 9
Reply 9, posted (6 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 5188 times:



Quoting BAGoldEx (Reply 4):
Just off of personal experience traveling BOS-Asia on AA, UA and others I have a very hard time believing that

Well, if you were on AA, UA and others, how would you know how many were on NWA? Also, the discussion is about BOS-NRT not Asia, even though I believe NWA would be the leader in the Asia category as well.


User currently offlineNaritaflyer From Japan, joined Apr 2006, 549 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 5166 times:

I think BOS-NRT route would work even if BOS is not a hub but NRT must be a hub for the other airline. There may not be enough people going to NRT every day from BOS, nor to Seoul, Taipei, Hong Kong, Shanghai or so on. But put all those guys toghether on one flight and take them to NRT and then feed them through the system at NRT to their end destination, then it might work. I believe the problem with this is the slots. There are no slots available at reasonable times to allow for connections. There may be slots at 11 PM Narita time which shoots down my connection theory.

User currently offlineA330323X From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 3039 posts, RR: 44
Reply 11, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 5166 times:



Quoting Commavia (Reply 7):
Does anyone still have a copy of that route map they put out back then - May 24, 2000, if I remember correctly - with all the routes they said they'd start once the two merged? I haven't seen that in ages!

http://www.airlinetimetables.net/images/intl.bmp


Quoting Commavia (Reply 7):
(Probably good for a laugh now.)

Actually, I'm a bit surprised at how many of the international routes ended up getting started anyway, the NRT routes being the obvious exceptions.



I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11116 posts, RR: 62
Reply 12, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 5125 times:



Quoting A330323X (Reply 11):
Actually, I'm a bit surprised at how many of the international routes ended up getting started anyway, the NRT routes being the obvious exceptions.

True, actually, and thanks for posting the maps!


User currently offlineB752OS From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1322 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 5079 times:



Quoting Exaauadl (Reply 1):
the market is just large enough...barely...UA looked at it but here is the problem....BOS isnt a hub and isnt as large as say NYC. There are numerous connect points to NRT from BOS like JFK, EWR, IAD, DTW, ORD, MSP, LAX, SFO, SEA, YYZ.

While the market is just barely large enough, youd have to capture over 90% of the local market just to make a penny. Given BOS lack of hub status and ability to connect to NRT over nearly a dozen point, it is unlikely any nonstop would be able to get more than 75% of the market. If BOS then has large markets to points beyond NRT such as PEK, HKG, ICN, TPE, then perhaps there might be some possibility with UA, NW or JL.

I think with the 787 coming on line in the next couple of years, BOS will see non-stop service to Asia without a doubt. My money is on BOS-NRT by either JL or NH with a 787 eventually. I also believe that other U.S. cities such as MIA,PHL,DEN, etc. will also see service as well.

BOS-Asia is a pretty good sized market when you consider BOS is not a hub. It was mentioned that between BOS-PVG/PEK there are more than 50,000 annual pax. Add in the local BOS-NRT, ICN, SIN, HKG and I think it could be well for an NH or a JL to step in a run the route.


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8089 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 4954 times:
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The Boston to Asia market should be good for 200 passengers daily via NRT. Any airline like AA ,with a 777, could make it work today. UA, NW and AA have all had international and large domestic operations in Boston, it is disappointing after all this time no one has tried to fly nonstop to Japan.

User currently offlineChrisNH From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 4011 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 4916 times:



Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 14):
I think with the 787 coming on line in the next couple of years, BOS will see non-stop service to Asia without a doubt. My money is on BOS-NRT by either JL or NH with a 787 eventually.

I agree 100%. First, the 787 will be the plane best-suited to the route. Up till now the planes have been too big and too expensive. Second, I believe it will be an Asian carrier that debuts the route rather than a domestic carrier. Since the route is a thin one, first one in will essentially have it to themselves. The only domestic carrier with a chance would be Northwest, because they'll have the 787 soonest.

Chris in NH


User currently offlineB752OS From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1322 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 4873 times:



Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 14):
The Boston to Asia market should be good for 200 passengers daily via NRT. Any airline like AA ,with a 777, could make it work today. UA, NW and AA have all had international and large domestic operations in Boston, it is disappointing after all this time no one has tried to fly nonstop to Japan.

I would even venture to say that it is bigger than that, if we are talking about all of Asia, perhaps over 350-400. I also believe that Boston is going to be an increasing tourist destination for people from Japan thanks to Dice-k and Okijima. You can call it crazy, but Boston is getting a TON of exposure in Japanese media and it is going to and has helped bring Japanese people to the Boston area.

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 15):
I agree 100%. First, the 787 will be the plane best-suited to the route. Up till now the planes have been too big and too expensive. Second, I believe it will be an Asian carrier that debuts the route rather than a domestic carrier. Since the route is a thin one, first one in will essentially have it to themselves. The only domestic carrier with a chance would be Northwest, because they'll have the 787 soonest.

It would be interesting to see NW do the route, they also have a large Asian network that connects out of NRT so that would help things out. It was rumored in another thread that NW is thinking about adding BOS-CDG with a 752, so I guess anything is possible.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22299 posts, RR: 20
Reply 17, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 4553 times:



Quoting B752OS (Reply 16):
It would be interesting to see NW do the route, they also have a large Asian network that connects out of NRT so that would help things out.

NW also knows a thing or two about connecting small stations to NRT; they just don't have the aircraft to do it from anywhere besides the west coast right now. NW seems to do well with BOS-AMS; there's no reason that BOS-NRT couldn't work with the 787.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineCarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2910 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 4486 times:



Quoting B752OS (Reply 16):
I would even venture to say that it is bigger than that, if we are talking about all of Asia, perhaps over 350-400. I also believe that Boston is going to be an increasing tourist destination for people from Japan thanks to Dice-k and Okijima. You can call it crazy, but Boston is getting a TON of exposure in Japanese media and it is going to and has helped bring Japanese people to the Boston area.

If we based it on your argument, JL or NH would have flown to SEA (due to Ichiro), but of course, this hasn't happened and nor will it happen anytime soon.
BOS is just too far in the corner of the US that major hubs have it covered easily. NH nor JL will not go into BOS anytime soon. As many have mentioned, NW is the glimmering hope, but it all comes down to availability of slots at NRT.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32173 posts, RR: 72
Reply 19, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 4478 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 17):
NW seems to do well with BOS-AMS; there's no reason that BOS-NRT couldn't work with the 787.

NW and KLM have 50/50 revenue sharing on AMS-USA. They fly BOS-AMS, SEA-AMS, etc. because of that, and the plane could just as well be a KLM plane.

I'm not saying Northwest can't do well on BOS-NRT, but the fact they do well on BOS-AMS is doesn't tell us much on how they would do on BOS-NRT.



a.
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22299 posts, RR: 20
Reply 20, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4403 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 19):
I'm not saying Northwest can't do well on BOS-NRT, but the fact they do well on BOS-AMS is doesn't tell us much on how they would do on BOS-NRT.

Don't misunderstand me; I wasn't trying to imply a causal link there, simply pointing out that NW successfully runs a different aircraft across a different ocean to a VERY different station (BOS-AMS is probably <50% local AMS traffic; BOS-NRT would need to be more like 70-80% local NRT traffic).

But in light of the situation with international gate space at BOS, the fact that NW is running a flight to AMS (and thus uses Terminal E) may actually be key to their ability to start BOS-NRT at some point. More significantly, it's clear that NW has figured out a way to capture a healthy amount of local traffic in Boston in a fairly competitive TATL environment (you rightly point out that KL could fly the route, but in a lot of ways, the US-originating traffic is NW's to capture). If they can do that, there's no reason they can't fly plenty of folks from Boston to Asia if they're the only game in town.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineSQ452 From United States of America, joined exactly 10 years ago today! , 1082 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4365 times:

This thread has been discussed a number of times before but I'm glad it's been mentioned again. I heard once via some Massport official that Boston is the largest market/airport in the U.S. without non-stop service to Asia, and that daily a couple hundred passengers (I want to say around 200 roughly) depart for Tokyo from Boston (with connections elsewhere obviously).

While many have said above that the market for BOS>NRT is just barely large enough, the connections beyond NRT to places such as ICN, SIN, HKG, PVG, and PEK are what will undoubtedly fill the plane. You could probably even run 2 flights a day at some points during the year.

Korean Air operated BOS>ICN with a 747-400 but that route soon was gone around 9/11.

Bottom line: We need a non-stop to Asia without question, and Tokyo is the front runner, the connection opportunities to Asia from Tokyo are endless.



SIN > CVG > BOS
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 21
Reply 22, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4283 times:

I would bet that the first flight to Asia from Boston will not be to NRT but ICN. KE is the most likely and the reasons are simple:

ICN doesn't have a slot problem.
KE has one of the largest networks in Asia.
KE will have the 787 and will use it to get to markets where their 777s are to big.

That being said, NW could start BOS-NRT when slots become available in 2009 at NRT. But then their might be a sacrifice of another route/slot for someplace else or just the movement of a one stop to a non-stop such as HKG.



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineJJeff From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 137 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4250 times:
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Quoting Carpethead (Reply 18):
If we based it on your argument, JL or NH would have flown to SEA (due to Ichiro), but of course, this hasn't happened and nor will it happen anytime soon.

Sure except that SEA-NRT is already covered by 2 nonstops (UA 777 and NW 330) providing about 500 daily seats. BOS-NRT of course has none making it more attractive for JL or NH.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32173 posts, RR: 72
Reply 24, posted (6 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4228 times:

Quoting SQ452 (Reply 21):

Bottom line: We need a non-stop to Asia without question, and Tokyo is the front runner, the connection opportunities to Asia from Tokyo are endless.

Tokyo actually sucks as a connecting hub. The best connecting hub between the U.S. and Asia, offering the maximum amount of connections, is Seoul. No surprise that Korean Air serves more U.S. cities than other Asian airline and is planning on adding Houston and Miami, and maybe others such as Boston, in the next 2-3 years.

[Edited 2007-11-21 21:27:53]


a.
25 Post contains links IAD787 : This should give a pretty solid answer: http://www.boston.com/business/globe...t_to_help_bostons_dreams_take_off/ "Because of weight restrictions and
26 Pellegrine : Whatever the carrier (KE, NH, JL, UA, NW), B787-800 will be the perfect plane for the route. Well actually NH, JL, and UA seem unlikely.
27 B752OS : I am not saying that having 2 top Japanese baseball players are automatically going to make the flight work. I was simply saying that thanks to them,
28 Bobnwa : The BOS-AMS local market is quite a bit less than 50%. Why would BOS-NRT have to be 70-80% local traffic when you consider the connecting possibiliti
29 Cubsrule : That's interesting; I had heard that a lot of the west coast flights were that high as well. I guess I heard wrong...
30 Bobnwa : The West Coast flights on NWA out of Narita are connecting passengers from all over Asia to the flights thus insuring good loads. The majority are no
31 Cubsrule : No question... some other carriers might say a little TOO well (vis a vis China frequencies).
32 Bobnwa : That is the intention of any company isn't it, to make things work well. If NWA is able to make its China frequencies work well via Japan, then good
33 Cubsrule : Hey, I'm a proud NW elite... don't think I'm hating on NW (and don't think that the criticism is fair, but it was definitely leveled).
34 RwSEA : As mentioned, SEA already has 16x weekly flights to NRT. And while the market has dwindled a bit in the past couple years, lots of Japanese tourists
35 Allstarflyer : Two weeks ago, I was in BOS with 2 days to go in my paid vacation. I thought about either heading home to the center of America or going across the p
36 Rcardinale : Are you talking about the Atlantic? We have 14 airlines that fly to 18 destinations in Europe soo I don't understand what you are saying
37 BAGoldEx : What the hell are you talking about?
38 Post contains images ChrisNH : Maybe he meant the Caspian Sea, or something
39 Bobnwa : I think you have all of confused. What on earth are you talking about. As pointed out above, 14 airlines across the Atlantic isn't enough??
40 747400sp : [quote=ChrisNH,rep I agree 100%. First, the 787 will be the plane best-suited to the route. Up till now the planes have been too big and too expensive
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