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LH: Even More 748Is?  
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10594 posts, RR: 10
Posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 9493 times:

In the December issue of Aero International there is an interesting interview with LHs 747 fleet boss. He says the airline is very excited to get the 748I and he can see LH ordering more (!) Well, this man is understandably partial for the 747, but still, thats good to read. The future 747-fleet of LH will be between 30 and 50 aircraft strong according to the article.

With 15-16 flight hours per day LH has the highest utilisation worldwide for 747s. That means that the first batch of LHs 744s (the larger part of the fleet), built in 1988-92, will be due for retirement in 2011 - 2015, in line with the 748I deliveries which will happen between late 2010 and 2013. Its unlikely that some of these aircraft will be retired to freighters. None can be spared for this before 2010, and by then even even youngest (of the first batch I mean) will already be close to 100.000 flight hours, the oldest will have passed that number which, at average, is the age a 747 is due for final retirement.

47 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 1, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 9497 times:

IIRC, the did take 20 options when they placed their orders. I'm sure they got superb pricing and terms.


"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineWINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 68
Reply 2, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 9477 times:



Quoting NA (Thread starter):
In the December issue of Aero International there is an interesting interview with LHs 747 fleet boss. He says the airline is very excited to get the 748I and he can see LH ordering more (!) Well, this man is understandably partial for the 747, but still, thats good to read. The future 747-fleet of LH will be between 30 and 50 aircraft strong according to the article.

With 15-16 flight hours per day LH has the highest utilisation worldwide for 747s. That means that the first batch of LHs 744s (the larger part of the fleet), built in 1988-92, will be due for retirement in 2011 - 2015, in line with the 748I deliveries which will happen between late 2010 and 2013. Its unlikely that some of these aircraft will be retired to freighters. None can be spared for this before 2010, and by then even even youngest (of the first batch I mean) will already be close to 100.000 flight hours, the oldest will have passed that number which, at average, is the age a 747 is due for final retirement.

Don't forget about the 15 A380-800's + 10 options.  Wink

Regards,
Wings



Aviation Is A Passion.
User currently offlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17048 posts, RR: 10
Reply 3, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 9453 times:



Quoting NA (Thread starter):
The future 747-fleet of LH will be between 30 and 50 aircraft strong according to the article.

And with 15A388s. It will be a really big fleet.



Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10594 posts, RR: 10
Reply 4, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 9445 times:



Quoting B747forever (Reply 3):
And with 15A388s. It will be a really big fleet.

Don´t forget LH is the worlds largest international carrier - and it wants to retain its title if possible. (A tough job looking at Emirates plans...)


User currently offlineDAL767400ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 9442 times:

Could well happen. 20 748s for FRA, 20 for MUC, and 10 for HAM Big grin . Okay, I'm dreaming a bit here, but with LH now poised to actually get serious about non-FRA/MUC longhaul flying, there's lots of widebody capacity bound to be needed, and with FRA still not having much growth options movement-wise, and MUC also facing some constraints, I could well see LH needing more 748s for FRA/MUC flights to free up A343s for non-FRA/MUC flights.

User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 9443 times:

I have read the interview, too and found it very interesting. He was very confident of the 747-8I indeed and I can see LH taking delivery of all 20 options of the 747-8I, if they should order the 747-8F they will very likely be the airline with the largest 747 fleet. Not bad for one airline that was said to become an all Airbus operator.  Smile
Any idea on how will LH will use the upperdeck of the 747-8I ? Will it be all first and business class ?



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17048 posts, RR: 10
Reply 7, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 9416 times:



Quoting NA (Reply 4):
Don´t forget LH is the worlds largest international carrier - and it wants to retain its title if possible

True.

Quoting NA (Reply 4):
(A tough job looking at Emirates plans...)

It will be a really tough job.



Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlineMEA-707 From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4295 posts, RR: 36
Reply 8, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 9291 times:

I would have expected that Lufthansa is secretly thinking, OMG what did we do, seeing noone else wants the 747-8i.
Might not be so attractive to fly a planetype as one of the few or the only one, like Air Inter with the Mercure.



nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
User currently offlinePADSpot From Germany, joined Jan 2005, 1676 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 9236 times:



Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 8):
I would have expected that Lufthansa is secretly thinking, OMG what did we do, seeing noone else wants the 747-8i.
Might not be so attractive to fly a planetype as one of the few or the only one, like Air Inter with the Mercure.

Really not much of an argument as LH often flies its airplanes for up to 30years. Aprt from that irrelevant resale value argument all other risks that come with being the sole customer can be fixed with an appropriate contract.


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 10, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 9202 times:



Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 8):
I would have expected that Lufthansa is secretly thinking, OMG what did we do, seeing noone else wants the 747-8i.
Might not be so attractive to fly a planetype as one of the few or the only one, like Air Inter with the Mercure.

I'd be amazed if they were thinking that and giving press releases saying they are going to order more.

This is a daft thing to say anyway - the 748I is going to be a very capable jet and LH seem to rate it. I bet they get 80+ orders for the pax version by EIS. Its never going to be a runaway success in its niche like the A380 is going to be but it will rack up a decent return.

Look at all the airlines that could possibly order but havent yet:

EK
QR
AI
PK
TG
MH
JL
NH
AZ
VS
CI
SV
SA
OZ
MU
CZ
CA
CX
UA
NW

Everyone seems to think none of the above will order the 748I and LH will be the sole operator of the passenger version, which is a bit silly really. The 748I wont get many of those above but its bound to get a few.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4312 posts, RR: 29
Reply 11, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 9171 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 10):
Its never going to be a runaway success in its niche like the A380 is going to be

The A380 is going to be a "runaway success"? Okay!



I'm not a racist...I hate Biden, too.
User currently offlinePnwtraveler From Canada, joined Jun 2007, 2224 posts, RR: 12
Reply 12, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 9129 times:



Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 8):
I would have expected that Lufthansa is secretly thinking, OMG what did we do, seeing noone else wants the 747-8i.
Might not be so attractive to fly a planetype as one of the few or the only one, like Air Inter with the Mercure.

We forget on here that airlines don't care what we think. LH has a huge level of experience with the 747 already and obviously respect the model and Boeing. They know how much profit they generate from that aircraft family. They have a very good idea too what the 748i is going to do for them. If it fits one of their routes, pleases passengers, and turns a good revenue for them then they have a winner. If there is a downturn in the economy LH may prove to be the smartest airline around. We all know how important cargo is for LH and an important part of their success. The 748i's lucrative cargo capability beyond passenger bags will be an insurance policy for them and dovetails nicely with their operation. We too often look at airlines buying aircraft like some new fashion trend that has just hit the runway. Just because that airline bought it we have to have it. Sure there is some of that and yes there is the issue of competition. However, any airline that simply buys based on that won't last long. The serious number crunching and business case must also be there. LH is so meticulous I would bet they know exactly what they are doing. They have bought both the 748i and the 388. They have a good idea how they are going to use them and unlike some on here don't lump them together as aircraft doing a head to head competition.


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 13, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 9085 times:



Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 12):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 10):
Its never going to be a runaway success in its niche like the A380 is going to be

The A380 is going to be a "runaway success"? Okay!

In the VLA niche, taking into account world VLA demand - i'd say the A380 pretty much has it cornered, wouldnt you?  Wink

Quoting Pnwtraveler (Reply 13):
We forget on here that airlines don't care what we think

Good job really because we'd have seen some scrapped A340s by now otherwise.

Quoting Pnwtraveler (Reply 13):
The 748i's lucrative cargo capability beyond passenger bags will be an insurance policy for them and dovetails nicely with their operation. We too often look at airlines buying aircraft like some new fashion trend that has just hit the runway. Just because that airline bought it we have to have it. Sure there is some of that and yes there is the issue of competition. However, any airline that simply buys based on that won't last long. The serious number crunching and business case must also be there. LH is so meticulous I would bet they know exactly what they are doing. They have bought both the 748i and the 388. They have a good idea how they are going to use them and unlike some on here don't lump them together as aircraft doing a head to head competition.

Yup - agree completely.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 25
Reply 14, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 9015 times:

The current exchange-rate in favour of the $ makes this type of decision easy for LH...
Airbus Chairman Enders is right when he is blowing the alarm-whistle ...
The US are clearly letting the $ slide to corner Europe exports - I see some point where the $ will lose its status as reference value.



Please respect animals - don't eat them...
User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4312 posts, RR: 29
Reply 15, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 8839 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 14):
In the VLA niche, taking into account world VLA demand - i'd say the A380 pretty much has it cornered, wouldnt you?

I absolutely agree that the A380 has the VLA "niche" cornered. However, that is not to say it will be a runaway success. But why are we rehashing this classic (and worn-out) argument? I was just giving you a tease so there's no reason to start another A380 argument.  Smile

Best regards,

R  wave 



I'm not a racist...I hate Biden, too.
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 16, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 8742 times:



Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 16):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 14):
In the VLA niche, taking into account world VLA demand - i'd say the A380 pretty much has it cornered, wouldnt you?

I absolutely agree that the A380 has the VLA "niche" cornered. However, that is not to say it will be a runaway success. But why are we rehashing this classic (and worn-out) argument? I was just giving you a tease so there's no reason to start another A380 argument.

Best regards,

 Wink Its been a little tame round here lately!



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineDAL767400ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 8653 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 14):
Good job really because we'd have seen some scrapped A340s by now otherwise.

Yup, and we'd not have seen a 777 scrapped yet  Wink (thank you Varig).


User currently offlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9098 posts, RR: 29
Reply 18, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 8510 times:

He also said in that interview that he does not expect LH to be the sole 748i carrier.

OK, we don't talk about that other VLA here, but with the 748i's on order and option, that gives them enough capacity to wait for the 389. If the 10 options are exercisaed, they will likely go for the larger variant.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30424 posts, RR: 84
Reply 19, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 8417 times:
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Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 8):
I would have expected that Lufthansa is secretly thinking, OMG what did we do, seeing no one else wants the 747-8i. Might not be so attractive to fly a planetype as one of the few or the only one...

On the flip side, with a fleet of up to 50 747-8I's, what do they care? That is more then enough planes to ensure Boeing will support the program for as long as Lufthansa Teknik (sic) needs them to.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 2):
Don't forget about the 15 A380-800's + 10 options.  Wink



Quoting NA (Reply 4):
Do not forget LH is the world's largest international carrier - and it wants to retain its title if possible.

Perhaps LH is planning to be more aggressive in defending it's turf and sees the 747-8I as a good weapon in that role.

We speak a good deal about the "capacity gap" between the A380-800 and the 777-300/A340-600/A350-1000. I have postulated that airlines are looking to the future in a binary mode - either more frequencies with 77Ws and A3510s or less frequencies with A388s and A389s - and as such, do not care about that gap. But perhaps LH is different.

LH flies 744s to many cities that won't take an A388 now and may not take one for some time - if ever. LH may see their 15-25 A388s as the weapon they will use to protect the "trunk routes" where they will be head-to-head with A388s from competitors like EK, QF and BA along with "allies" like SQ. And they might see their 20-50 748Is as a way to grow traffic to those existing 744 destinations that their competitors and allies will be serving with A350s and 787s.

Many believe the A388 is compelling to customers because it allows them to leap-frog competitors flying 747s in markets that have limited frequency options (either due to lack of available slots or limited traffic growth opportunities). The same will be true of LH flying the 747-8I against customers flying smaller planes, as well.


User currently offlineQazar From Canada, joined May 2006, 324 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 7617 times:

The low value of the US dollar makes it very attractive for airlines around the world to buy Boeing right now. As a matter of fact, I'm surprised (even as an Airbus boy) that Airbus is raking in those sales considering how much more expensive the Euro is as a world currency.

I have always greatly respected LH management, and I believe it is one of the best-run airlines in the world. I believe they will eventually order more of the A380 - well beyond the 10 options they have logged on presently. There is definitly room for at least 30 A380 in the LH fleet added to teh B748s ordered and optioned.

Right now however, they see their Euros going further with a USD conversion and buying B748

Way to go LH!

Cheers!


User currently offlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9098 posts, RR: 29
Reply 21, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 7371 times:



Quoting Qazar (Reply 20):

Right now however, they see their Euros going further with a USD conversion and buying B74

The contract was signed earlier this year and the first payments have been made at the then ROE. The present low $ is, as always, a mixed blessing for companies doing business world wide. It is safe to say, that the annual US$ income of the airline is far greater than the expenditures for future aircraft purchases, which is then spread over a depreciation period of 15 or more years. Nobody knows what the ROE will be, when deliveries of the 748i start in 2010 and the final and largest payments hjave to be made on delivery of each a/c.

Today's ROE is just a momentum, not more and not less.

Airbus sells in US$ as well, BTW.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlineTrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4597 posts, RR: 14
Reply 22, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 7200 times:
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Quoting Qazar (Reply 20):
The low value of the US dollar makes it very attractive for airlines around the world to buy Boeing right now. As a matter of fact, I'm surprised (even as an Airbus boy) that Airbus is raking in those sales considering how much more expensive the Euro is as a world currency.

Airbus sells in US $, depreciation of the $ vs Euro just means they make less money (or lose money) but the airlines are still paying the same amount in $.


User currently offlineEBJ1248650 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1932 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 6622 times:



Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 8):
I would have expected that Lufthansa is secretly thinking, OMG what did we do, seeing noone else wants the 747-8i.
Might not be so attractive to fly a planetype as one of the few or the only one, like Air Inter with the Mercure.

I don't expect to see Lufthansa thinking that way at all. They know what they need, the 748i meets the need and they're happy with their decision.



Dare to dream; dream big!
User currently offlineN1KE From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2007, 12 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 6429 times:

Good on Lufthansa. They obviously see the need and market for 748i. I am sure they will convert all of the options they hold and may even add a few more as well. The 747 has served Lufthansa well and will continue to in the future.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 2):

The article was about the 748i and what the 747 boss of Lufthansa thought of it. Why do we need to know about the A380. It just starts the usual 748 v 380 comments and then the topic goes of topic.


25 Zkpilot : I don't think they will be thinking that at all... the new 748I will have nice interiors and excellent CASM. IF and thats a big IF pax reject the 748
26 Tdscanuck : The 747-8i and 747-8F are now the same length. They were originally slightly different but they upped the length of the 747-8i several months ago. To
27 Zkpilot : I thought it was the other way around... the 8I was longer than the 8F? So it would be either the 8I shortened or the 8F lengthened...
28 Stitch : The 747-8I was 5m shorter then the 747-8F when first offered.
29 Post contains images Dalavia : Of course more airlines will order the 747-8I. There are airlines in some parts of the world that will order whatever Boeing offers and not consider a
30 Columba : I think the comment of Wings was valid. This thread is about an interview with the Chief Pilot of the Lufthansa Boeing-747 fleet saying that LH is co
31 Post contains images LifelinerOne : Is the LH 747 fleet boss also in charge of the freighter Jumbo's? If so, is he hinting to an 30-50 strong B747 passenger and cargo fleet? Cheers!
32 Columba : LH has no 747 freighters, only MD11s. They phased out their last 747-200F years ago. Also LH Cargo is a different company separate from LH passage.
33 N1KE : i personnally don't believe that Wings remarks are valid in this thread.Why do we need to know the orders for 380's when discussing 748's. I remarked
34 PanHAM : it is a rather small figure, considering the opportunities the single market offers, once that market is extended to unrestrictefd flying from the si
35 Post contains images WINGS : Both of you completely missed my point. Does the A380 also not represent an increase of their VLA fleet? My comment had nothing to do with 748i vs A3
36 Columba : The reason why we need to know about the A380 when discussing Lufthansa´ s order for 747-8I is really simple: LH has ordered both aircraft an
37 Stitch : Because LH has both and I for one think it is relevant to discuss how each could be used by LH, as I did in Reply 19. After all, LH is not going to o
38 WINGS : Thank you Colomba & Stitch. It's always a pleasure to discuss aviation with such open minded individuals. Regards, Wings
39 Post contains images Lightsaber : Good point. That requires expansion (as EK will expand as fast as possible). There are two ways to expand: 1. Frequency 2. Gauge LH should do a bit o
40 Post contains images Buddys747 : It seems some on here think too that since EK, SQ, or BA didn't order the 748i, that it will have no orders. There will be more orders and the 747 is
41 Post contains images Columba : First of all EK is not of the race as they have clearly stated other airlines especially from China and India will order it, too. Maybe the 747-8I wi
42 Post contains links and images Leskova : I'm guessing you missed this bit of news... http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre...s/07_11_12_saudi_arabian_a320.html While it's not for A380s or B74
43 Columba : They said that as well but sometime this year they said that they take delivery of converted 747s when the first A380s/747-8Is arrive. With LH 747s t
44 Mrcomet : I don't think Lufthansa cares whether people order the 747 or not. With one of the world's largest fleets and one of the most extensive and establishe
45 PanHAM : I doubt for several reasons that LCAG will take converted 74Fs. Fuel is one of the reasons, next, if they take they would likely go to Jade or NewCo
46 Buddys747 : My comment was the fact that people on this forum, not EK themselves, have stated the 748i will have no more orders. I agree the 748i will not replac
47 Post contains images Columba : Agreed
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