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Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017  
User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9817 posts, RR: 52
Posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13522 times:

Has anyone else heard about the rumor that United will not receive any new airplanes until the year 2017 for mainline operations? I doubt it is true since I heard it from a pair of pilots, but I'm curious what others think. If it is true, then I can't imagine too much international expansion. Domestic expansion has been exclusively on Regional jets for years, but I'm surprised to hear that UA won't have new planes for 10 more years.

However, I'm sure if there are any mergers, then that number will be thrown out the window. Also, what about current orders that are not fulfilled?

What speculations are out there?

[Edited 2007-12-04 17:24:13]


If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
59 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 1, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13524 times:

Don't forget that UA have 42 A319/A320s on order.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 2, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13498 times:
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Well that might be why UA doesn't plan to order new planes - they intend to merge with someone by then.

User currently offlineJetBlueGuy2006 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1665 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13497 times:

I would be surprised if this is not true, planes get old and need to be replaced. If they want to keep up with all the international expansion that will happen with the A380, 787 and 350, they need to replace.

Also, you might want to delete the T in your title

[Edited 2007-12-04 17:19:59]


Home Airport: Capital Region International Airport (KLAN)
User currently offlineASAFA From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 171 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13465 times:

What is your source for the information?

How could anyone know that they will not place orders for airplanes in the next 10 years? Did they say no orders or they would not take delivery until 2017? By then much of their fleet will be in need of replacement.

I heard that after 5 consecutive quarters of profitability they would be in a position to order new aircraft for expansion, so I would take any of these rumors with a grain of salt.

A lot can happen in 10 years.



Prepare for Takeoff
User currently offlineUadc8contrail From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1782 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13438 times:

rose,
where did u hear this rumor???..where ever you heard it, it can not be true....some of the 400s are coming up on 20 years, some of the 300s are pushing 20 as well, with the 42 busses coming online(if it actually happens) they could convert some of those to a 330/350 or 340 but iirc didnt tilton tell the chicago biz community at some conference that it was not going to happen till around 2010....



bus driver.......move that bus:)
User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9817 posts, RR: 52
Reply 6, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13395 times:



Quoting Uadc8contrail (Reply 6):
where did u hear this rumor???..



Quoting ASAFA (Reply 5):
What is your source for the information?

I heard it from some UA pilots and didn't believe it. I haven't seen any information about new order rumors for United. I however wouldn't be surprised if new planes won't be ordered for a long time, but 10 years before new deliveries seems like a long time.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineRichierich From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 4296 posts, RR: 6
Reply 7, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13336 times:



Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 7):
I heard it from some UA pilots and didn't believe it. I haven't seen any information about new order rumors for United. I however wouldn't be surprised if new planes won't be ordered for a long time, but 10 years before new deliveries seems like a long time.

Logic says this can't be true. I mean, who really knows? As ASAFA said, a lot can happen in 10 years and considering we don't even know where UA will be in 10 months or what the airline scene will look like in the USA a decade from now, I'd say this is just pilot banter.

If UA doesn't place an order for new planes within 10 years, I'm guessing that is because they no longer exist. It's unlikely they'll be able to survive running their current fleet to the ground, that's my opinion.



None shall pass!!!!
User currently offlineEghansen From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13319 times:



Quoting JetBlueGuy2006 (Reply 4):
I would be surprised if this is not true, planes get old and need to be replaced. If they want to keep up with all the international expansion that will happen with the A380, 787 and 350, they need to replace.

The following link is from a November 21 article in Business week.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/.../db20071120_389009.htm?chan=search

This is a direct quote from the article:

"One sign of that is United's extended pause on fleet expansion. While other carriers have begun placing orders for new planes, the Chicago company says it plans to rely on its existing fleet of 460 jets until 2015 or 2016. By then the planes will be 20 years old, on average. While United executives say they're simply waiting until the next generation of fuel-efficient, narrow-body jets hits the market, industry insiders believe Tilton (who wasn't available for comment) knows that loading up on pricey plane orders could lessen United's appeal to other carriers."


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 9, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13316 times:



Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 7):
I heard it from some UA pilots and didn't believe it.

Some of the most bizarre rumors I've ever heard were from UA line pilots. On the other hand, the rumors I've heard from UA test pilots, while not always true, were always plausible.


User currently offlineAABB777 From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 607 posts, RR: 7
Reply 10, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13242 times:
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My understanding is that UA will not have new aircraft for 'some time'. UA will continue to expand international capacity about 15% over the next 3 years, while shrinking domestic capacity. They also do not have any a/c on order. The fleet you see today is the fleet they will have for some time. Thankfully they are ungrading several produces, including international first and biz. UA is basically putting the 'for sale' sign in the yard and just waiting for a buyer to come along.

User currently offlineBicoastal From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 12971 times:

With economists predicting a global downturn in the economy and a recession in the USA, UA may be very prudent in holding back expensive aircraft orders. Demand for air travel is cyclical. If we are heading in to a period of less demand, United Airlines could be sitting pretty while other airlines with new equipment have a hard time filling seats and paying off huge new debt.

User currently offlineSh0rtybr0wn From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 528 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 12949 times:

I believe it

They decided against 77W, haven't ordered the 787 yet , now they're about 1 year away from not being able to get an A350 until 2017 - if they're lucky.

UA ( and AA too ) have to buy some order up some new widebodies soon or their going to have an antique fleet when everyone else is flying the most efficient state of the art fleet.

Somebody will explain how Boeing is saving 9000 787s for UA and AA, but I'm not buying that idea.

Its like UA is planning on not being in business in 8-10 years; so why get new planes.

If the "no new planes until 2017" is true, they should order A350s, before it reaches 700 plus orders.

There has to be some reason that all the world's biggest and most successful airlines are ordering new efficient widebodies like crazy; while UA orders nothing. I don't get it.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 13, posted (7 years 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 12849 times:



Quoting AABB777 (Reply 11):
They also do not have any a/c on order.

Then please explain the disposition of the 42 A319/A320s that UA have had on deferred order for the last ten years. They have not been delivered. That means they have either been cancelled or they are still on order. If they have been cancelled, can you provide a link?


User currently offlineJawake From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 286 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 12848 times:



Quoting RoseFlyer (Thread starter):
What speculations are out there?

I have heard something similar. I read their 5 year plan that they make no mention of acquiring new equipment. And honestly, the B787 and the A350 are sold out, so I do not see that before 2017.

Would they go for B747-8? Maybe, I know the A380 made a visit to UA SFO facilities, but that might too much.

I would not be surpise if 10 more years go by without new aircraft. They are in the midst of a major upgrade on their 767s and 747s. We will see.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25692 posts, RR: 85
Reply 15, posted (7 years 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 12796 times:
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The rumor was basically confirmed at the Calyon Conference by Jack Brace:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8TAPKUG0.htm

"Brace said the airline can carry out its next round of international expansion by reconfiguring or shifting airplanes from its domestic operations. "Beyond that 15 percent, at some point we may want to order a handful of international planes," he said."

"A handful of international planes" seems to be it for a while.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineN174UA From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 994 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (7 years 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 12470 times:



Quoting RoseFlyer (Thread starter):
I'm surprised to hear that UA won't have new planes for 10 more years.

I'm not. Apart from the '400s, UA has one of the younger fleets out there.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Thread starter):
What speculations are out there?

The economy is heading toward recession, industry consolidation, Jake Brace announcing that they could ground up to 100 of their unencumbered aircraft to adjust to lower demand...

Quoting Uadc8contrail (Reply 6):
some of the 400s are coming up on 20 years

Including the inspiration for my username...N174UA joined the fleet in January 1990, making it one of the oldest 400's they fly.

Quoting Richierich (Reply 8):
If UA doesn't place an order for new planes within 10 years, I'm guessing that is because they no longer exist.

Or they could be double the size. Who knows? Like politics, 10 years is an eternity in this industry. If we do head into recession, like I think we are, then it's entirely possible UA could pick up some aircraft really cheap. Or it could be through a merger.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 16):
"Brace said the airline can carry out its next round of international expansion by reconfiguring or shifting airplanes from its domestic operations. "Beyond that 15 percent, at some point we may want to order a handful of international planes," he said."

"A handful of international planes" seems to be it for a while

Depending on the age of the domestic 763's and 772's, UA would have to invest in refurbishing those planes for 3-class service. I'd have to see the analysis (i.e. NPV) before I agree if it's worth it do that. Or, they pick up planes from someone else on a wetlease or if a competitor fails.


User currently offlineHNL-Jack From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 820 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (7 years 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 12130 times:

If UA intends to add to the fleet beginning in 2017 and if that's long range widebody equipment, they'll need to make an order in the next two years, unless the order is for the B-748 or A-380. At the rate the 787 and A-350 are selling the production will be sold out though 2017 in the foreseeable future. The recent HA order for the A-350 as part of their A-330-200 order appears to have been made to insure aircraft availability.


Grew up in the business and continued the family tradition.
User currently offlineAirframeAS From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 14150 posts, RR: 24
Reply 18, posted (7 years 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 12085 times:



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
Some of the most bizarre rumors I've ever heard were from UA line pilots.

Or ANY pilot for that matter.... As someone said earlier: Alot can happen in 10 years. Airlines cannot really predict what will happen in 10 years, let alone 3 months.

Can someone do a breakdown on UA's active fleet including the planes stored in the desert (excluding permanent retired aircraft)?? I am assuming UA has some 772's still in storage here in Arizona, but not retired.



A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
User currently offlineUAL777UK From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2005, 3356 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (7 years 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 11807 times:



Quoting HNL-Jack (Reply 17):
At the rate the 787 and A-350 are selling the production will be sold out though 2017 in the foreseeable future.

As has been stated time and time again on here, A & B, particularly B will have slots available for the like of UA, AA and DL, should they decide to make a sizeable order for the 787. They will NOT have to wait until 2017 or alike for those babies to join theitr fleets.


User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7089 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (7 years 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 11777 times:



Quoting RoseFlyer (Thread starter):
that United will not receive any new airplanes until the year 2017 for mainline

You said will not receive any new airplanes before 2017, with the A350 and 787 being sold out for years the earlist aircraft they would get would arrive around that time.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlinePlunaCRJ From Uruguay, joined Nov 2007, 576 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (7 years 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 11738 times:

Quoting Bicoastal (Reply 11):
With economists predicting a global downturn in the economy and a recession in the USA, UA may be very prudent in holding back expensive aircraft orders. Demand for air travel is cyclical. If we are heading in to a period of less demand, United Airlines could be sitting pretty while other airlines with new equipment have a hard time filling seats and paying off huge new debt.

   Totally agree. What I would do in the case of United (and if I had money) is to sell most of the 777´s, 747´s and all the 767´s and replace them with a smaller fleet of 787´s. They could also pocket the money from the sell of all the planes they currently fly.

In case of an economic recession UA will have the advantage to offer less capacity (less smaller newer aircraft) whilst having the top in aviation technology and don´t worry about fleet trouble for many years. This is UA´s opportunity to order aircraft.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Thread starter):
United will not receive any new airplanes until the year 2017 for mainline

For MAINLINE. Could we see a dramatic increase of regional aircraft flying as United Express domestic?

[Edited 2007-12-05 04:09:58]

User currently offlineUnitedTristar From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (7 years 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 11678 times:



Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 18):
I am assuming UA has some 772's still in storage here in Arizona, but not retired.

Incorrect. UA has done all possible to get more usage out of its fleet. If they had planes in storage, they wouldn't be looking as desperately for equipment time as they are now.

-m

 airplane 


User currently offlineAABB777 From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 607 posts, RR: 7
Reply 23, posted (7 years 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 11565 times:
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Quoting Zvezda (Reply 13):
Then please explain the disposition of the 42 A319/A320s that UA have had on deferred order for the last ten years. They have not been delivered. That means they have either been cancelled or they are still on order. If they have been cancelled, can you provide a link?

I've not see any news link that confirms the ' no a/c on order' statement. My source is a high-level UA exec. The info could be wrong, or could be correct for now until UA 'needs' new a/c. Also told that UA in a 'perfect world' would only like to have three a/c types - for example, only A320s, 787s, and 777s - but that is pretty far off.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 24, posted (7 years 2 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 11547 times:
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Quoting UAL777UK (Reply 19):
As has been stated time and time again on here, A & B, particularly B will have slots available for the like of UA, AA and DL, should they decide to make a sizeable order for the 787. They will NOT have to wait until 2017 or alike for those babies to join theitr fleets.

Unless 787 production will not be as fast as Boeing expects. If Boeing can only average 80-90 planes a year for a couple of years instead of the planned 120, that will push deliveries out even more. Some believe Boeing on Tuesday will announce they will not be able to meet their 2009 production ramp and will fall short by 30% or more.


25 Birdbrainz : If there is a global downturn, you'll see lots of order cancellations. Maybe UA is thinking that it can scoop up some of the excess planes that other
26 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ....they haven't specifically stated they won't order the B77W, the fact they aren't ordering wide-bodies probably indicates they won't be ordering t
27 JFK787NYC : Economic downturn does not mean anything drastic. There are global players involved now not just the United States. Brazil Russia India China are Half
28 Jawake : Sorry to ask this question, but what is a 77W? Are we talking about the 777-300?
29 Africawings : The danger with United's business approach is that they can easily rationalize themselves right out of business (I've seen this happen before). In oth
30 PRAirbus : I think anyone could same the same about AA too...no new orders on AA's horizon except for a few 738s and some 777s here and there...the A300s are fal
31 EXAAUADL : it is almost as though UA is purposely mismanaging istself for the long term
32 Brilondon : First off the headline should read "until" and you would give yourself more credit. Second, UA would probably not say much about its fleet plans that
33 Richierich : Yes - I was not hinting that I think UA will cease to exist in 10 years, although it is a distinct possibility for any airline in the USA I suppose.
34 Brilondon : Yes.
35 Halls120 : That is one view. The other view is that once UA reconfigures the first and business sections of their existing international fleet, some premier exe
36 Sh0rtybr0wn : That idea of Boeing saving UA copious 787 slots is getting old. Soon Boeing will be "saving" them slots for 2016. It just seems odd that people contin
37 Stitch : Specifically, the 777-300ER. The 777-300 is the 773. Halls120 is dead-on. It is what is inside the shell that counts more then the shell itself. If y
38 UnitedNRT : The United Express operation will continue to grow well into 2008, albeit not the double-digit percentage increases since 2003 YOY, but new markets w
39 Flighty : Suddenly every airline is supposed to buy new jets every 10 years? UA comprehensively renewed their whole fleet in the last 15 or so years. They are
40 Africawings : As long as my seat is comfortable and up to date, and the airframe is properly maintained, I could care less what aircraft I'm flying. I actually pre
41 TCFC424 : I think there are 3 possible reasons for United holding off on placing aircraft orders. 1) They want to wait until contract negotiations have been com
42 HNL-Jack : I've never heard Boeing or Airbus "officially" state that...and if that is the case, the manufacturers won't wait forever if others want earlier deli
43 Post contains links SFORunner : http://www.chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?id=19059&seenIt=1
44 Flighty : Okay. But it's still true that AA, DL, UA are each capable of 100-200 787 or A350 over time, again that's 100+ _each_. A lot of backs can get scratch
45 AirframeAS : IIRC, the timeframe for a spanking brand new 737 for an order placed today would be delivered around 2013. I remember a thread all about the huge bac
46 Danny : That is correct. UA still have those 42 Airbus aircraft on order with deliveries scheduled between 2011 and 2015.
47 Bmacleod : I wonder if Boeing's 747-8 team has heard this rumor. It would be bad news for them as UA is a favorite for the 747-8I. Of course if they do merge wit
48 Ikramerica : I can't see UA holding on to their oldest 744s until 2017. Just too old. now NW? sure, but UA is going to have to either retire them for smaller plan
49 Post contains images Nwarooster : If Northwest Airlines can fly their DC-9s into eternity, Why can't United fly their existing fleet of 737s, A319s and A320s that long? Northwest's DC-
50 Post contains images Excalibur : I don't think this is great news. Even if those old DC-9s are well maintained, they must cost NW a great amount of money... I really think UA should
51 Asiaflyer : You are spot on there!!! MH expressed as well that one of the main reasons they are looking to buy up to 110 new planes, is that they find it too exp
52 WorldTraveler : It is doubtful UA will exist by 2017... they are hell bent on selling themselves and it is almost certain that someone will bite before then. UA has t
53 N801NW : Unless they are precluded contractually from doing so, it sounds like it would be much more beneficial to take the aircraft and then sell them upon d
54 Avek00 : An Open Skies bloodbath would have a similar fact, more so for Euro carriers than US carriers though.
55 Uajetblast1 : I'm sorry but that's the worst idea I have ever heard of.
56 Asiaflyer : From Boeings own website: "The 787 will provide airlines with unmatched fuel efficiency, resulting in exceptional environmental performance. The airp
57 DeltaL1011man : hold on now i have to say that yes there some old planes(AAs MDs and A300s and UA's 744s and 733/735s) out there but DL and CO(and more or less NW wi
58 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Are we talking about the 777-300?[/quote] ..they aren't "hell bent' as you so put it mate....we see just as many media releases regarding DL, NW and C
59 WorldTraveler : And that was before winglets were made available for the 767. Also, this is per mission and 763ER is not a comparable sized airplane to the 787. The
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