B7X7 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2007, 43 posts, RR: 0 Posted (7 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 3325 times:
With the announcement that BA has finalized it's order for 24 B787 bringing the total ordered to 790 frames, could Boeing go on and get another 210 orders before its first delivery in last 2008 to reach the magic 1000 orders?
If it can get and order from DL, AA, UA, AF/KL, LF, (I know LF, AF/KL at long shots), I can see the 1000 mark being broken sometime next year, which would be quite amazing, getting 1000 orders before first delivery.
AA..nothing major probably until negotiations with the pilots..and AA will probably order in tranches versus a "mega-order"...UA..they are interested in B772LR's and B748I's and have upgraded their B767 fleet..meaning no B787 orders probably for a while...DL...there is a chance...we'll see.
I still expect 1000 will happen in the next 2-3 years..
I think that sales of the 787 to date have proved that the US legacies are more or less irrelevant to its success , so far we have had two orders ( CO and NW ) the first of which ( NW) was placed more than a year after the launch of the programme and the second more than 2 years after the launch - between them I believe their firm orders account for considerably less than 10% of the total firm orders to date , I am sure that eventually orders will trickle in from AA/DL/UA when their finances permit but in the meantime Boeing will continue to rely on customers in Asia/Europe/Middle East/Africa/Australasia to make the programme work
Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31683 posts, RR: 85
Reply 8, posted (7 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 3030 times:
It could be possible, since there are a few additional RFPs expected to be decided in the next six months or so as well as some airlines might start exercising options to protect/ensure delivery positions.
Tootallsd From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 564 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (7 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 2926 times:
Launch of the 787-10 / 787-11 would drive a wave of orders that could do the trick but everything we have read suggests that Boeing is not going to launch those models prior to first deliveries. The only trick that would help would be further delays but frankly that is more likely to damage the program rather than help it.
As enthusiasts we should be happy with the tremendous change in the technology in the industry that this program is driving. Fastest selling new airplane is enough of a 'sash' to be worn. 1,000 planes at launch is a nice to have.
Justloveplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1072 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (7 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2751 times:
I think it will be close. If 787 sales take a 50% dip next year, they will take about 170 orders and fall short by about 30. If sales dip by about 1/3 or 33%, probably right at 210.
Boeing projects about 600 unit sales next year which is about a 55% drop. Assuming they are right and the first flight goes well and perfomance metrics are met, there may be a slight bias upward from the 55% drop for the 787 and it might squeeze in.
Boeing said they have 10 active sales campaigns for the 787-10 to define the center of the market, so I assume these are all significant orders. If the 787-10 is launched (which I doubt will happen next year) I think it would make it.
ER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2659 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (7 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2667 times:
Quoting Cpd (Reply 10): While it is possible, it needs to get through the flight test program, and get into production without any further delays or serious dramas.
If unforeseen problems arise, it could affect sales. Depends on the severity of the problem and its solution. Let's hope nothing major comes up.
I don't see UA ordering before 1st delivery (provided that still happens in 2008) and don't think AA will pull the trigger either. DL may, but I doubt it would be a "mega-order" of 100 or anything like that. If the 787-10 is finally offered for sale, that could generate some sizeable orders that combined with others for the -8 and -9 could put them over the 1000 mark. I wouldn't count on it though - I just don't see 2008 as as huge a year as the past three have been.
Kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12679 posts, RR: 34
Reply 14, posted (7 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 2510 times:
There are still a lot of interesting competitions out there, for the winning. Many, like TG, LY, OZ are small ones (relatively), but the "big three" American carriers will move things in that direction; there's not a huge distance to go and I'm sure Boeing will push for it, but I would expect 787 sales to have reached around 900 by the time of first delivery to NH.
SEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 7248 posts, RR: 50
Reply 15, posted (7 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 2502 times:
It will depend a great deal on how the economy does. If travel continues to grow strongly it will probably happen; if things slack off it almost certainly won't. Last year at this time we were all expecting 2007 orders to slack off, but they're on their way to setting new records for both A & B. So who knows?
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
Flybyguy From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 1802 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (7 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2327 times:
I think AA and particularly UA are not in a financial situation to buy new planes... God only knows how NW as able to order anything considering its dismal financial and labour situation when they first ordered. For the near future, old planes probably earn their keep by being cheaper to operate in certain respects than brand new planes.
I also think for the near future, Boeing has to promote ways to expedite planes to customers because waiting a decade or more for delivery will not be an option to airlines who don't want to pay top dollar for yesterday's technology. To grab any additional orders from the A350XWB, Boeing is going to need to ensure that they will have no further slips in the program and perhaps not consider, but actually plan the opening of a second production line.
"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller