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Can B787 Reach 1000 Orders Before 1st Delivery  
User currently offlineB7X7 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2007, 43 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3207 times:

With the announcement that BA has finalized it's order for 24 B787 bringing the total ordered to 790 frames, could Boeing go on and get another 210 orders before its first delivery in last 2008 to reach the magic 1000 orders?

If it can get and order from DL, AA, UA, AF/KL, LF, (I know LF, AF/KL at long shots), I can see the 1000 mark being broken sometime next year, which would be quite amazing, getting 1000 orders before first delivery.

19 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineZTagged From Niger, joined Oct 2007, 516 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3203 times:

It's feasible, but the industry in this day and age.. It's a constantly changing thing. It COULD happen, but don't hold your breath, unless Boeing has some great trick up it's sleeve.


Something awful.
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1877 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3183 times:

Possible, but unlikely.
Although I do expect 787 orders to hit 1000 mark before the end of 2010 at the latest.



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17066 posts, RR: 10
Reply 3, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3161 times:

It is possible, but will be really hard to reach 1000orders before the first delivery. But Boeing will get 1000orders on the 787 at least in 2009.


Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 4, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3108 times:



Quoting ZTagged (Reply 1):
unless Boeing has some great trick up it's sleeve.

Delta, American, and United?



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 5, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3006 times:



Quoting Lumberton (Reply 4):

Delta, American, and United?

AA..nothing major probably until negotiations with the pilots..and AA will probably order in tranches versus a "mega-order"...UA..they are interested in B772LR's and B748I's and have upgraded their B767 fleet..meaning no B787 orders probably for a while...DL...there is a chance...we'll see.

I still expect 1000 will happen in the next 2-3 years..



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineCJAContinental From United Kingdom, joined May 2006, 459 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 2962 times:



Quoting ZTagged (Reply 1):
unless Boeing has some great trick up it's sleeve

As in possibly launching another variant of the 787?



Work Hard/Fly Right.
User currently offlineKiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8557 posts, RR: 13
Reply 7, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 2931 times:
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Quoting Lumberton (Reply 4):
Delta, American, and United?

I think that sales of the 787 to date have proved that the US legacies are more or less irrelevant to its success , so far we have had two orders ( CO and NW ) the first of which ( NW) was placed more than a year after the launch of the programme and the second more than 2 years after the launch - between them I believe their firm orders account for considerably less than 10% of the total firm orders to date , I am sure that eventually orders will trickle in from AA/DL/UA when their finances permit but in the meantime Boeing will continue to rely on customers in Asia/Europe/Middle East/Africa/Australasia to make the programme work



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User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30922 posts, RR: 87
Reply 8, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 2912 times:
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It could be possible, since there are a few additional RFPs expected to be decided in the next six months or so as well as some airlines might start exercising options to protect/ensure delivery positions.

User currently offlineTootallsd From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 559 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 2808 times:
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Launch of the 787-10 / 787-11 would drive a wave of orders that could do the trick but everything we have read suggests that Boeing is not going to launch those models prior to first deliveries. The only trick that would help would be further delays but frankly that is more likely to damage the program rather than help it.

As enthusiasts we should be happy with the tremendous change in the technology in the industry that this program is driving. Fastest selling new airplane is enough of a 'sash' to be worn. 1,000 planes at launch is a nice to have.


User currently offlineCpd From Australia, joined Jun 2008, 4879 posts, RR: 38
Reply 10, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 2744 times:

While it is possible, it needs to get through the flight test program, and get into production without any further delays or serious dramas.

Given that the plane is a radical design, it's hard to imagine that there won't be other delays or problems along the way.


User currently offlineCageyjames From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 321 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 2677 times:

I don't know, I'd just assume see the thing in service before the 1000th order. Given the delays right now, we could be in for a little wait and 1000 might just happen.

User currently offlineJustloveplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1052 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 2633 times:

I think it will be close. If 787 sales take a 50% dip next year, they will take about 170 orders and fall short by about 30. If sales dip by about 1/3 or 33%, probably right at 210.

Boeing projects about 600 unit sales next year which is about a 55% drop. Assuming they are right and the first flight goes well and perfomance metrics are met, there may be a slight bias upward from the 55% drop for the 787 and it might squeeze in.

Boeing said they have 10 active sales campaigns for the 787-10 to define the center of the market, so I assume these are all significant orders. If the 787-10 is launched (which I doubt will happen next year) I think it would make it.


User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2512 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2549 times:



Quoting Cpd (Reply 10):
While it is possible, it needs to get through the flight test program, and get into production without any further delays or serious dramas.

 checkmark  If unforeseen problems arise, it could affect sales. Depends on the severity of the problem and its solution. Let's hope nothing major comes up.  crossfingers 
I don't see UA ordering before 1st delivery (provided that still happens in 2008) and don't think AA will pull the trigger either. DL may, but I doubt it would be a "mega-order" of 100 or anything like that. If the 787-10 is finally offered for sale, that could generate some sizeable orders that combined with others for the -8 and -9 could put them over the 1000 mark. I wouldn't count on it though - I just don't see 2008 as as huge a year as the past three have been.


User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12436 posts, RR: 37
Reply 14, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 2392 times:

There are still a lot of interesting competitions out there, for the winning. Many, like TG, LY, OZ are small ones (relatively), but the "big three" American carriers will move things in that direction; there's not a huge distance to go and I'm sure Boeing will push for it, but I would expect 787 sales to have reached around 900 by the time of first delivery to NH.

User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6899 posts, RR: 46
Reply 15, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 2384 times:

It will depend a great deal on how the economy does. If travel continues to grow strongly it will probably happen; if things slack off it almost certainly won't. Last year at this time we were all expecting 2007 orders to slack off, but they're on their way to setting new records for both A & B. So who knows?


The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineFlybyguy From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 1801 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2209 times:

I think AA and particularly UA are not in a financial situation to buy new planes... God only knows how NW as able to order anything considering its dismal financial and labour situation when they first ordered. For the near future, old planes probably earn their keep by being cheaper to operate in certain respects than brand new planes.

I also think for the near future, Boeing has to promote ways to expedite planes to customers because waiting a decade or more for delivery will not be an option to airlines who don't want to pay top dollar for yesterday's technology. To grab any additional orders from the A350XWB, Boeing is going to need to ensure that they will have no further slips in the program and perhaps not consider, but actually plan the opening of a second production line.



"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller
User currently offlineCpd From Australia, joined Jun 2008, 4879 posts, RR: 38
Reply 17, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 2169 times:

I expect UA to eventually choose the Airbus A380 for starters, but I doubt it'll be a massive Emirates style order.

It may try to get a few here and there to replace older 747-400 aircraft.


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 18, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 2113 times:



Quoting Cpd (Reply 17):
I expect UA to eventually choose the Airbus A380 for starters



Quoting Cpd (Reply 17):
It may try to get a few here and there to replace older 747-400 aircraft.

...UA's Tilton disagrees with you there... Wink

"He (Chairman and CEO Glenn Tilton) said he sees the 777-200LR as an excellent aircraft for UA and he also will have a look at the 747-8"*

atwonline.com-12-2007



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineMham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3621 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (6 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2031 times:

I think they should be more concerned with getting the first one flying.

Any downtick in the industry and you can expect some of those orders to be canceled.


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