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Is The LH 748i Order Secure?  
User currently offlineTheDiplomat From Ireland, joined Jun 2006, 382 posts, RR: 7
Posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 8889 times:

With few, if any orders for the 747-800 passenger variant, how secure is the lufthansa order. Just like the A380f has lost significant orders, can we expect the same for the 748 passenger version?

Did the 747-800 get any passenger orders in 2007?

62 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 1, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 8868 times:

No, the A380F was (effectively) cancelled because it involved significant additional development beyond the passenger version, including a large increase in MTOW, and there was not the prospect of sales sufficient to cover the development cost. The additional development work beyond the 747-8F for Boeing to produce the 747-8I is negligible by comparison. The LH order alone more than covers the marginal development costs of the 747-8I. Boeing will make some money on the 747-8I even if the order count remains at 25.

User currently offlineHirnie From Germany, joined May 2004, 593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 8852 times:

Yes, the order is secure. LH wanted this plane since the mid 90s and now they get what they want. Boeing listened carefully to LH in the process of specifying the 747-8i. Emirates not ordering the 748i is a result of this, because Emirates would like to have more rage, LH not. So why should this order not be secure? I think in the mid future we will see a follow on order by LH.
At this time I think LH is the only operator that ordered the 748i (correct me if I´m wrong). I think Boeing doesn't have to worry, orders will come, not that much like the 744 got, but enough to make money for Boeing.

This is only me opinion, future will show...


User currently offlineWILCO737 From Greenland, joined Jun 2004, 8899 posts, RR: 76
Reply 3, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 8853 times:
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Oh I DO hope the order is secure!!! Would be a great new addition to the LH fleet... The 744s are getting older and older and flying only Airbus was never something LH planned to do!

WILCO737 (MD11F)
 airplane 



It it's not Boeing, I am not going.
User currently offlineCloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2453 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 8731 times:

If the deal was to be cancelled it would be Lufthansa doing so rather than Boeing. It would also be an economical decision rather than a technical one. The question is if Boeing fail to sell the -8I to another operator, would Lufthansa want to be the sole taker? What would the cost of any -8I specific spares be? How confident are they about the aircraft's residual value? If they run an economic model of the scenario of them being the sole operator, will the promised numbers still add up?


A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 8732 times:

I think LH is such important client that Boeing is willing to sell at a loss.

User currently offlineLMML 14/32 From Malta, joined Jan 2001, 2565 posts, RR: 6
Reply 6, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 8682 times:

Boeing can afford to build even a few 748's as, like someone else said in this tread, the development costs are minimal given that the 747 is just being modified.

User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 7, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 8676 times:



Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 4):
What would the cost of any -8I specific spares be?

Are there any parts specific to the 747-8I that are not found on either the 787-8F or the 747-400? Yes, but not so many. Does LH's fleet size of 20 justify spares specific to that fleet? Yes.

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 5):
I think LH is such important client that Boeing is willing to sell at a loss.

No, neither Airbus nor Boeing ever deliberately sell at a loss. Ever. Except in A.net fantasies.


User currently offlineOldeuropean From Germany, joined May 2005, 2026 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 8648 times:

I'm sure that LH will get them for a very advantageous price. And doesn't the 748 will come later, because of Boeings problems with the 787? So perhaps they get them even cheaper.

Axel



Wer wenig weiss muss vieles glauben
User currently offlineBestWestern From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2000, 6953 posts, RR: 57
Reply 9, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 8631 times:



Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 4):
How confident are they about the aircraft's residual value?

I think that this is a key issue for other airlines. As LH retain their aircraft for a long period, it will probably not affect them. Airlines that flip their fleet over a short period may be concerned with low take-up.

Global Parts availability may become an issue however.

When is the first flight of the 748i?



The world is really getting smaller these days
User currently offlineAirbusA346 From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2004, 7437 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 8470 times:

When is the first section etc meant be made etc?

Tom.



Tom Walker '086' First Officer of a A318/A319 for Air Lambert - Hours Flown: 17 hour 05 minutes (last updated 24/12/05).
User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7027 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 8415 times:



Quoting Hirnie (Reply 2):
I think in the mid future we will see a follow on order by LH.

That was recently stated by the head of the 747 fleet. He said LH could need up to 50 747-8I.
The order is secure as long as Boeing does not cancel the Intercontinental version which is doubtful.
LH always wanted the plane. One advantage of the 747-8I is that it carrys more cargo than the A380 which is an important factor for LH.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlinePaddy From Taiwan, joined Jul 2003, 390 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 8094 times:

Isn't CI expected to order some this year as well? Even if they do, the 748i might end up being a very niche player (like the 764 which was similarly unpopular yet not a disaster for Boeing).

User currently offlineAirbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 7871 posts, RR: 10
Reply 13, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 8089 times:



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
The LH order alone more than covers the marginal development costs of the 747-8I. Boeing will make some money on the 747-8I even if the order count remains at 25.

Sorry, I don't buy that. There's no way that 25 air frames sold at a very large discount to a launch customer would be enough to pay for the 748i program. If LH is the only carrier to ever order the 748i and Boeing goes ahead with it, it will make the A380 program look like a blockbuster success.


User currently offlineFanfan From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 54 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 8021 times:

Recall the great irritation at LH when Boeing cancelled the MD11F. This is a decision that Boeing (never in public) wishes they never made.

Besides irritating a good customer, they missed out on a lot of other orders as the MD11F is a great freighter. FedEx and UPS would have kept the Long Beach factory busy and we would likely not see as much interest in the A330F. Try finding an MD11 frame now. Those that have them won't give them up.

That said, Boeing's biggest problem now with the 747i is not customers, but delays - with three programs launching they do not have enough test pilots. Moreover, their engineers are scrambling - taken off the 747 to get the 787 out.

Airlines looking at this plane know that every day they wait, they will get a better discount from Boeing. Recall the A380 customers who went quiet until the delivery problems got sorted. BA took the A380 because their accountants said the deal was too good to refuse. Airbus was desperate then but no longer. Now you will Boeing get desperate - customers know this and afford to wait.

LH's order is safe because they know Boeing will not give up the VLA market.


User currently offlineTheSonntag From Germany, joined Jun 2005, 3396 posts, RR: 29
Reply 15, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 7971 times:

When will the first 748s be delivered (officially and likely?)? What will LH get first, the 748s, or the A380s?

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29678 posts, RR: 84
Reply 16, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 7909 times:
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Quoting Alessandro (Reply 5):
I think LH is such important client that Boeing is willing to sell at a loss.

So are BA, SQ, and QF. If Boeing was willing to sell to LH at a loss, they would have been willing to sell to those three at a loss, yet they all decided to purchase additional A388s. And if EK was really serious about the 747-8I, they would certainly have bought some at a loss.

Ergo, Boeing did not sell the 747-8Is to LH at a loss nor were they willing to sell them at a loss to any other carrier.

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 13):
Sorry, I don't buy that. There's no way that 25 air frames sold at a very large discount to a launch customer would be enough to pay for the 748i program.

First off, I don't buy the $4 billion development cost tossed around for the 747-8 program - at least as all of it applying for the 747-8. At most, we're talking $2 billion and the rest is from earlier developments (747-X, 747-X Stretch, 747-QXLR, 747-Advanced).

Now of that $2 billion, how much applies to the base airframe? Likely most of it. And that money had to be spent on the freighter, regardless of whether or not Boeing ever wanted to build a commercial model. And now the commercial model is the same length as the freighter, which shifts even more of the R&D costs to the freighter.

We know Boeing spent around an extra $300 million in R&D on the 747-8I, and that this cost came about the time LH likely decided to buy it (even if they had not yet made such a decision generally public). So it is likely Boeing spent very little money on the -8I when they began developing the program, with most of the money going to the base frame and the -8F. Once LH said "yes", Boeing opened the checkbook to make it happen.

So I'll be generous and say Boeing's spent $500 million directly on the -8I. Average list price for the plane is $278 million. LH's discount was expected to be 45%, which is in-line with what 747-8F's are going for. So figure $125 million per frame sale price. We will also assume the 5 747 VIPs went for that, but likely they sold for more.

Airbus claims they can build an A380-800 for $100 million. One expects Boeing can build a 747-8I for less thanks to both experience and most of their factory is already fully amortized where none of the A380's is. Still,
let's also be generous and say Boeing also needs $100 million to build each plane.

So 25 747-8I's will cost Boeing $2.5 billion to build. And they absorbed $500 million in R&D costs. So the total cost is $3 billion. 25 sales at $125 million a piece brings in $3.125 billion. So right now, Boeing is $125 million up on the program at a minimum. If Boeing could build a 747-8I for $90 million, spent $400 million in R&D, and sold each plane for $126 million, they would be up $500 million right now. And each new sale only makes that number look better.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29678 posts, RR: 84
Reply 17, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 7888 times:
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Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 15):
When will the first 748s be delivered (officially and likely?)? What will LH get first, the 748s, or the A380s?

The first 747-8F is due in 2009. LH is scheduled to get their first 747-8I in 2010. LH's first A380-800 is MSN038/D-AIMA and their website says they will take delivery in the summer of 2009.

Some pundits believed the 787 delays would impact the 747-8 program, but Boeing re-affirmed last month that the 747-8 program is on schedule.


User currently offlineSXDFC From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 2225 posts, RR: 19
Reply 18, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 7537 times:

Maybe WILCO737 will agree with me on this?

Does LH plan on looking at or getting the 748F? I am not quite sure how old the MD-11F's are but I am sure the 748F or maybe even the 772ERF will be a nice addition to the LH Cargo fleet?



ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7027 posts, RR: 4
Reply 19, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 7163 times:



Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 15):
What will LH get first, the 748s, or the A380s?

LH will get the A380 in 2009 and 747-8I in 2010.

Quoting SXDFC (Reply 18):
Maybe WILCO737 will agree with me on this?

Does LH plan on looking at or getting the 748F? I am not quite sure how old the MD-11F's are but I am sure the 748F or maybe even the 772ERF will be a nice addition to the LH Cargo fleet?

Officially no plan yet from LH to retire the MD 11F but since the new joint venture of LH and DHL will get the 777F I can see LH Cargo get the 747-8F in a few years so that the two companies don´t compete.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineBoeing909 From Germany, joined Dec 2007, 24 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7144 times:

I think the order is secure. The 747-8F and 747-8I use mostly the same structure and systems. So you can add the orders (> 100 planes). Additionally the -8 is only an update of the -400. Also the 747-8F/I are using the same engine and cockpit technology as the 787. So the developing costs are probably not extremely high. I think there are also chances for more orders.

However the 747-8-program might be also a strategy to stay in business and gain know-how for developing the future Y1/Y3-projects. The history shows building a new plane is not that easy. So it might be a smart move to keep up with the newest technology and start the future projects on more professional level ever.


User currently offlineWILCO737 From Greenland, joined Jun 2004, 8899 posts, RR: 76
Reply 21, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7096 times:
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Quoting SXDFC (Reply 18):

Some MD11Fs are pretty old, some are pretty new, so no need to replace them soon. And I heard we have some kind of contract which says that we have to fly it until 2012 at least... So a few more years...

The NewCo has ordered 77Fs and they want to start in 2009. Maybe we get some of their routes or we can apply there to fly for them for a specific time... But nothing official now and I havent heard any rumours about it yet as well...

WILCO737 (MD11F)
 airplane 



It it's not Boeing, I am not going.
User currently offlineGlideslope From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 6899 times:



Quoting Alessandro (Reply 5):
I think LH is such important client that Boeing is willing to sell at a loss.

Come on Al. It's a 748 not a 388.  rotfl 



To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
User currently offlineFlyingClrs727 From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 733 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 6702 times:



Quoting Fanfan (Reply 14):
Besides irritating a good customer, they missed out on a lot of other orders as the MD11F is a great freighter. FedEx and UPS would have kept the Long Beach factory busy and we would likely not see as much interest in the A330F.

Plus the MD-11 could have been available as a tanker to complement the USAF KC-10 fleet. The KC-767 is a better replacement than the KC-30 for the KC-135 fleet, but it isn't a replacement for the KC-10.


User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12414 posts, RR: 100
Reply 24, posted (6 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 6695 times:
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Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):

Are there any parts specific to the 747-8I that are not found on either the 787-8F or the 747-400? Yes, but not so many.

If I may nitpick...

The 748 is getting many good improvement. Everything from new computers (frees up room in the cargo hold) to a re profiled wing with new movable surfaces. Some of the big maintenance items are completely unchanged (landing gear & brakes, tires, doors, hydraulic distribution system), but some are changing (actuators in wings, the electronics bay, cockpit). But I'll agree with Zvezda, enough is in common that the added parts won't be expensive. I'm racking my brain for anything new in the 'fly away kit' and the only items that come up are engine/nacelle specific (filters, fuel injector, pins to lock out the thrust reverser).

Since the 748F market is so secure, I really doubt this order is in danger. What could LH get in time to supplement their capacity? Nothing else out there has enough surplus production except for the A330/A340 line; LH needs a little more lift and range than those provide.

Quoting Columba (Reply 19):

LH will get the A380 in 2009 and 747-8I in 2010.

Thank you. Very interesting... But the A388 delivery rate is going to be too slow for a follow up order until what... 2012 with A389's?

I am fascinated to see LH order both. We all know that as soon as they publish their annual per seat-km fuel economy numbers it will be a HUGE A vs. B here on a.net.  duck 

Lightsaber



I've posted how many times?!?
25 Columba : The 747 will have higher costs because it will have less seats then LH could put in. The big plus of the 747-8I for LH is the higher cargo capacity.
26 Post contains images WILCO737 : I hope so, otherwise I cannot fly to NYC anymore Yeah, we will see on what routes the 748i will fly... The A380 will be on the high demand routes! I
27 Post contains images Stitch : LH has already said they expect the A380-800 to burn 10% less fuel (3.0l per 100 passenger kilometers compared to 3.3l for the 747-8I), but as Columb
28 Post contains images Columba : Is EWR A380 ready ? It will be indeed interesting to see how LH will use both aircraft. I really believe that some cities will see both so you will h
29 Post contains images WILCO737 : Good question, but I doubt EWR will see the A380, the 2nd FRA flight just got downsized from 330 to 737 BBJ by privatair... so I doubt they use the 3
30 Columba : Not only that it seats 100 less passengers because it is a smaller aircraft but LH also puts about 25 less seats in it than they could. I believe the
31 Post contains images Zvezda : On what assumptions are you basing that assertion? Huh? As of the end of November, BA had not yet ordered the WhaleJet. Perhaps they did last month o
32 Post contains images Nitrohelper : I didn't think there was anything on the planet that could make that happen. Thanks for the numbers, I guess maybe Boeing has figured out how to buil
33 Stitch : I believe so. But she has decades to sell not only more A380-800s, but also other variants. Plus we don't know what figures Airbus is using when they
34 EI321 : As a reference, it cost $450m to develop the A332 from the A333 in 1998.
35 Zvezda : The last number from Airbus was 420 but, following that, they said it was higher, and refused to say how much higher. Given the shiift in the dollar/
36 Jsewoggie : If this cost $450m back then, the number for 748 should be way over $500m, even if the number went to $1bil that would only mean $9.5mil per plane ba
37 EvilForce : If that's the case then the 747-8's sales life will be wrapped up and finished sometime in the next 3 to 6 months.
38 Post contains images Stitch : I do not believe this will apply to the A380 because of her uniqueness and the inability or inefficiency of certain major airports to expand their mo
39 EI321 : the whole 747-8 programme has been put at 4 billion.
40 Glideslope : IMO, close to 500.
41 Jsewoggie : This would make more sense. I had no idea what the number was running, some said $300 others $500m.
42 Stitch : $4 billion is half the cost for the 787, which is a totally new plane using a totally new production method and material base. The entire 747-8 progr
43 EvilForce : They were pulling it straight out of their arse. I love how many self-proclaimed experts of R&D engineering we have that swag a few hundred million h
44 Manfredj : My understanding (and this is from years ago) was that the MD-11 never hit expectations in terms of reliability and fuel burn. Have these problems be
45 Stitch : The MD-11 did miss her initial fuel burn targets. Evidently McD was eventually able to claw it back, but by then the A333, A343 and 77E had put her i
46 WingedMigrator : The 748I and 748F may be the same length, but they are stretched in different places. This is the first time I heard of this claim. Is this a mere re
47 Airbazar : You can chose to make up your own numbers and I'll continue to believe that if LH is the only customer for the 748i, we'll never see one flying.
48 Post contains images Lightsaber : ahhh... I missed that nuance. I was comparing to the 744. All parts in common that matter for flight operations. The 748I does have a modified electr
49 Post contains images Stitch : True. Outside of the specific stuff needed for the SUD, that shouldn't affect control runs and other system installations since they can all be run f
50 Post contains images Astuteman : The seat count would need to go down another 25 seats to match the space per seat available in LH's A388's.. And perhaps more specifically, her abili
51 Post contains images WingedMigrator : to be fair, the 748I rides the coat-tails of the 748F in a way that the A389 can't (discounting the work already sunk into the A380F project, which w
52 Post contains images Astuteman : To be fair, I said "748 stretches", implying (at least) the whole programme......... It's old ground, but IIRC, the shopping list for the "$2Bn" 748
53 Parapente : Boeing are not going to withdraw from the VLA market unless they are absolutly forced to (in the short/medium term). I feel that their problem will be
54 Andaman : Finnair already have sold the MD11's they own to SU. And all their 7 MD11's will be gone by spring 2010.
55 Burkhard : An important task of Lufthansa ( the airline ) is to provide enough in house demand for Lufthansa Technik to be competitive in maintenance. I see Luft
56 Art : Well, if you are right, Boeing are going to have to cancel reasonably soon, given that delivery starts sometime in 2010. Personally I see no compelli
57 EI321 : But so does the 747-400, and Boeing have not sold a passenger 744 in 5 or 6 years. I think part of the problem with the 747 is that its neither small
58 Post contains images Stitch : Compared to the 737 and A320, every aircraft family is a "niche". As long as it sells enough, that is all that really matters in the end. And yet, it
59 Jtdieffen : The 744 is not a great example to defend why there is no niche market for the 748 as the reasons are numerous at this point why it's not viable for m
60 Zvezda : Even including top-offs, there have been virtually no VLA orders for either Airbus or Boeing. We're in the biggest sales boom in the history of comme
61 Post contains images Bmacleod : Why the doom and gloom outlook on the 748i? LH is 100% committed to its 748i deliveries and I predict CI AI (good chance) and a few other carriers wil
62 JAL : The LH order is secure and I'm sure more orders are to come.
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