Lowecur From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 585 posts, RR: 0 Posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 14703 times:
With rumors flying that these two will strike a deal by the end of the month, it will be interesting to see what hubs go by the wayside. My guess is SLC stays, and CVG and MEM go by the wayside. Planebusiness.com had this to say about the rumblings: "..First big rumor is actually a recurring rumor. Only this time it has more details. Delta-Northwest. Over the last week, we've received a number of pieces of intel from various folks on both the industry side and the financial side and it's all pointing in one direction -- that this deal could be announced this month. As I have said in the past, I think this one is going to happen. I mean, folks, remember it was me who said Richard Anderson was going to be the new CEO at Delta -- months before it was announced...Holly.
Jetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 3136 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 14705 times:
Quoting Lowecur (Thread starter): As I have said in the past, I think this one is going to happen. I mean, folks, remember it was me who said Richard Anderson was going to be the new CEO at Delta -- months before it was announced...Holly.
Ok but what does this have to do with predicting a merger? The only people who know for sure are the upper level people at DL and NW. All we have to do is wait and see. I hope it doesn't happen and if it does they have like an Air France KLM deal type.
All of the opinions stated above are mine and do not represent Airliners.net or my employer unless otherwise stated.
STT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 17593 posts, RR: 50
Reply 3, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 14633 times:
CVG and MEM are small markets to begin with, the loss of hub status would not hurt as much in these communities as it has in places such as PIT and to some extent STL which are both bigger markets.
CVG would lose it's International flights as those aircraft would go to DTW to increase it's Trans-Atlantic and Latin American services. The combined DL/NWA would keep a token presence there (CVG) to continue to serve markets such as LGA, LAX, MCO etc.. However limited the DL/NWA presence would be at CVG post merger other airlines would fill much of the void, and even lower the airfares as has happened in places like PIT. WN, FL would probably go in with the typical set up, WN with flights to PHX, LAS, MCO, BWI and FL with flights to MCO, LAX etc..
Again with MEM it's a small market to begin with and a small hub, the loss of hub status would be offset to some degree with the introduction of WN and FL (which would also lower fares). WN to HOU, MCO, MSY, MDW, LAS, PHX, STL. FL to ATL and MCO.
Lowecur From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 585 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 14603 times:
Quoting Jetblueguy22 (Reply 1): Ok but what does this have to do with predicting a merger? The only people who know for sure are the upper level people at DL and NW. All we have to do is wait and see. I hope it doesn't happen and if it does they have like an Air France KLM deal type.
Actually it's going to happen due to the economic downturn that is on the horizon. It's just a matter of whether it's within this administration or the next one. Strategically, DL/NWA would want to get this done within this administration, and hope any other mergers that are on the drawing board get stuck in limbo with the next administration. I think you will see the others try and step to the plate within 60 days of any announcement. They all have investment bankers hard at work looking into the possibilities.
The fact that Holly is getting feedback from the investment side adds further credence to this possibility. She talks with many people at all the investment houses and has contacts within mgt at all the carriers. Believe me, at this point....they all know what the other is up to because so many investment houses are involved.
These merger possibilities have plus' and minus' for small low cost carriers like B6, FL, and F9. It will also mean that WN will get the ball rolling on their merger plans, which may include FL, F9, or Alaska. B6 should have some wonderful choices on where to place a midpoint hub for their 190s, or they may choose to start talks with F9. All very interesting possibilities.
Xtoler From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 970 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 14497 times:
I don't believe the rumors of all these mergers. It's a scare tactic to make employees work harder for less money. But I wouldn't doubt Delta closing shop at CVG. I can definately see CVG turning into another PIT.
EMB145 F/A, F/E, J41 F/A, F/E, because my wife clipped my wings, armchair captain
Lowecur From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 585 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 14439 times:
Wonder if LH will step to the plate to help B6 merge with F9 if WN elects to bid on F9? WN will go after a carrier that will financially hold the most synergies and strategically help to mitigate it's biggest threat domestically.
NwAflyer07 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 14314 times:
Quoting Xtoler (Reply 5): It's a scare tactic to make employees work harder for less money.
Exactly how would threats of a merger make us work harder for less money?
I think that pretty much everyone agrees that MEM and CVG operations will be significantly reduced. I think SLC will stay the same, DTW will be built up (mostly internationally), and MSP will slightly reduce. As for ATL, im not too sure what would happen there. They may choose to reduce international routes in ATL allowing for europe-asia traffic to be routed directly through DTW, however ATL has a lot of businesses and needs decent intl routes. ATL will probably stay the same, imo. It will probably be the biggest domestic hub for the carrier and DTW will play the role of international gateway on top of it's domestic route network.
Guess we'll all just have to wait and see though. I'm not sure whether to be excited or to dread this announcement as i have no idea what a merger would have in store for my father's job at NW as well as mine.
Srbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 14280 times:
The hubs at MEM and CVG would definitely be on the chopping block if there were to be a merger between the two airlines. But unlike when DL shuttered their DFW hub, there's going to be someone coming in and starting a sizable operation at MEM and CVG.
WN almost immediately spring to mind at MEM. As does FL and F9. And pretty much all of the smaller cities NW Airlink flies to out of MEM, Delta Connection serves out of ATL.
I could see them adding service to LAX, LAS, SEA, SAN, SFO, PHX, BOS, IAD, CAK, MDW, TPA, EWR, and HOU. Or as part of a joint hub with F9, they could serve eastern cities while F9 would serve western cities (That is if the rumors of an FL/F9 codeshare being in the cards comes true.).
This one has me thinking JetBlue or AirTran. I'm leaning towards FL because they are looking to build up a hub somewhere in that region. JetBlue really does have a bit of a gap in the Midwest that needs to be filled at some point. If DL/NW were to pull down the DL hub there, leaving only flights to hubs, that would leave a large opportunity for someone. CVG is pretty much a Delta Connection than Delta hub these days anyway, with Comair and Chautauqua separately operating more flights into/out of CVG than DL does. And like with NW's hub at MEM, the Delta Connection flights @ MEM are already served out of DTW, MSP, or ATL.
While I think SLC will stay as a hub, but how much it does internationally will depend on what is done about SEA. NW has a fairly significant presence in SEA, and I could even see the combined carrier for example shifting any and all of SLC's Canadian flights (YVR, YYC, YEG & YYZ) to SEA to take advantage of the larger O&D market there.
Quoting Lowecur (Reply 6): Wonder if LH will step to the plate to help B6 merge with F9 if WN elects to bid on F9? WN will go after a carrier that will financially hold the most synergies and strategically help to mitigate it's biggest threat domestically.
I think WN will go after FL, and F9 and B6 will get together via the LH proposition if that happens.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
Lowecur From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 585 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 14092 times:
Quoting Srbmod (Reply 10): This one has me thinking JetBlue or AirTran
Nah, B6 is really looking to start something out West. They want to get a 190 program that can both connect the East/West and build up a network of flights connecting the Southwest USA with the NW and anything in between. The more I think about it, B6 doesn't want to get into a bidding war with anyone for F9, although if they can grab it cheap....it may happen. IMO, they just need to be patient and see how all this plays out, then make their move.
If UAL/CAL get together, then it's my guess you could see a reduction at DIA to a focus for UAL. B6 could then p/u some gates as they become available. This is one option of a myriad that will be presented as this all plays out.
Sxf24 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1404 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 14017 times:
Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 12): While I think SLC will stay as a hub, but how much it does internationally will depend on what is done about SEA. NW has a fairly significant presence in SEA, and I could even see the combined carrier for example shifting any and all of SLC's Canadian flights (YVR, YYC, YEG & YYZ) to SEA to take advantage of the larger O&D market there.
Why would DL/NW jeopardize a very strong partnership with AS/QX?
Bobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6920 posts, RR: 8
Reply 15, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 13969 times:
Quoting NwAflyer07 (Reply 9): Guess we'll all just have to wait and see though. I'm not sure whether to be excited or to dread this announcement as i have no idea what a merger would have in store for my father's job at NW as well as mine.
When do we get the evidence that there is an announcement. You seem to be the only NWA employee that knows so, and there are many on this board.
Threepoint From Canada, joined Oct 2005, 2344 posts, RR: 8
Reply 16, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 13842 times:
Quoting Jetblueguy22 (Reply 1): The only people who know for sure are the upper level people at DL and NW.
And, if there's any credence to the rumour, a hundred or more lawyers, investment bankers, analysts, assistants, etc.
Quoting Xtoler (Reply 5): I don't believe the rumors of all these mergers. It's a scare tactic to make employees work harder for less money.
Corporate mergers are hardly scare tactics these days. We've seen too many blockbuster deals in the past few years and managers know that they can only cry wolf once. Besides, if we look at airline mergers only, I fail to see any evidence that employees actually work any harder than they did before. In fact, generally, it's the opposite.
The nice thing about a mistake is the pleasure it gives others.
Xbraniffone From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 80 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 13813 times:
Why would they drop MEM and CVG as a hub and give the LCC another "leg up" in the industry? Don't those hubs make money?
I think they will use some synergies but to drop them as hubs, I don't think so.
My personal opinion is that if a merger between DL and NW occurs it will be like a KLM/AF. Merging the two employee bases will be very difficult. NW employees are notoriously difficult to deal with (Unions and senority) Customer service, would be severly hurt by the unhappy employees and this is not the time to piss off more of the public than they already are.
The whole thing is so complicated that non of us know.
Mir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 22864 posts, RR: 53
Reply 18, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 13812 times:
I would hope that JFK gets downgraded domestically while maintaining its international presence. The NYC area can support it, and all those RJs aren't very good for congestion.
Quoting STT757 (Reply 3): CVG and MEM are small markets to begin with, the loss of hub status would not hurt as much in these communities as it has in places such as PIT and to some extent STL which are both bigger markets.
Might even help those communities as it would break the monopoly that they have and help reduce fares.
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
SESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3541 posts, RR: 9
Reply 19, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 13679 times:
Quoting Davescj (Reply 7): I think CVG and MEM would become MUCH smaller (focus cities at best, and largely RJ's at that) and MSP as a focus city, but with more mainline. ATL, DTW, JFK and SLC would stay hubs.
As MSP is NW's largest O&D market and largest mainline city, MSP will not be downgraded. According to people inside NW, MSP is their most profitable North American hub simply due to the large O&D market and near monopoly with almost no sizable low-cost carriers. Expect MSP to stay largely the size it is, there's no hubs that really compete with it in this merger scenario.
Quoting 4everRC (Reply 15): People need to stop assuming that DL will be the surviving carrier in this merger scenario - that is NOT a forgone conclusion.
DL will, mark my words, WILL be the surviving carrier. DL's market stature is far and away larger than NW and DL has the second largest frequent flier base of any airline on earth. Outside of their hubs and Amsterdam and Japan, NW is largely a secondary player. In nearly every big market DL is more well known: ATL, DFW, NYC, BOS, MIA/FLL, Philly, D.C., LA, Bay Area, etc.
JetBlueGuy2006 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1719 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 13379 times:
Quoting SESGDL (Reply 20): DL will, mark my words, WILL be the surviving carrier. DL's market stature is far and away larger than NW and DL has the second largest frequent flier base of any airline on earth. Outside of their hubs and Amsterdam and Japan, NW is largely a secondary player. In nearly every big market DL is more well known: ATL, DFW, NYC, BOS, MIA/FLL, Philly, D.C., LA, Bay Area, etc.
Wow, do you have some inside track to information that the rest of us don't? You seem pretty confident in yourself.... How many people in AMS or NRT even know who DL is? I can say that it is a ton less than who know NW. NW has a huge Asian presence that won't necessarily translate into flyers for DL.
Now, I am not saying in the end DL wouldn't be the surviving carrier, it may very well be, but to make such a concrete unchangeable assumption is just not smart. What is to say that NW and DL, if anything were to happen, would take the others name. For all we know, they could do what AF/KL do. It would allow each carrier to retain its strengths as it wouldn't show the average customer any difference. Both NW and DL would "survive" even if under one parent company.
Home Airport: Capital Region International Airport (KLAN)
Isitsafenow From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4984 posts, RR: 22
Reply 22, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 13322 times:
Now if you really want to do some skull searching, try and figure out the puzzle of Comair, ASA, Pinnicle, Mesaba and
Compass and how they fit into NW/DL.. I'm thinking the odd man out is either Comair or ASA. What do you think?
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
In the grand scheme of things, AMS is really very unimportant in a the DL/NW potential merger scenario. DL serves AMS as well and is also a Skyteam member, so as long as they funnel passengers through AMS the name is really unimportant. NRT is a different situation, but a slow transition would take place which would allow Japanese customers to become more acquainted with the DL brand. It could end up like AF-KL with both carriers as surviving entities, but DL will be in control and will undoubtedly have their name and brand plastered on all the signs.
: NW does not have such a brand awareness in the Netherlands. Actually, NW does not do any advertisement at all, whereas DL does. Simply because all ad
: I disagree, mergers do not have happen and its far from a given. I know its the up to date thing to say on this board, but is far from fact. Please e
: I would agree MEM is likely dead with the merger. CVG also. But the market size of CVG is pretty close to PIT. Problem for CVG is that DL has price l
: BDL would be a pretty big focus city for the combined airlines. Currently from BDL on DL: CMH,LAX,ATL,CVG,MCO,RSW(seasonal),PBI,FLL,TPA,JFK,CUN(season
: I don't think MEM would raise that big of a ruckus. NW is not MEM, FX is. In terms of jobs, the way FX is growing, the NW employees that opt not to t
: This merger will be presented on a platform of survival of the US airline industry as we know it. If the economy goes into recession, and IMO that it
: I disagree with that. There is a great deal they can say. There is a great deal they will say. CVG especially has a lot to lose if this deal goes thr
: bingo. They may restructure the schedule and drop/downsize some more markets but they are not pulling out of the markets. CVG could sustain int'l fli
: I believe the above statement is 100% correct. If any airline merges and then takes a lot of capacity out, they are just accelerating their own demis
: So in essence you are saying the regulators will view the parts as greater than the sum? This isn't a regular M&A environment we are dealing with. Mo
: Elimination of duplication is at the head of the class when considering the advantages of a merger. This will include both operational and managerial
: which is why the network carriers have pulled capacity out of non-competitive markets in the past several years not in markets where LCCs exist or ca
: The thing is, if fuel keeps going up and the economy tanks, legacys have already said they will park the a/c that are not fuel efficient......meaning
: Yeah, but would it make more sense financially to consolidate both at this point, with one being the eventual winner? Got to believe you are going to
: Say rather, an attempt at self-fulfulling prophecy by the merger & acquisition people who stand to make a bundle off of such things. And a merger is
: it is a mistake to think that LCCs are not going to have to reduce capacity. They may have lower costs but they also fly routes that fit those costs;
: I didn't know that. This is dumb, but why? What is the attraction? or is it simply that MSP folk travel a great deal? DL mgmt has said consistently I
: In the United States, especially in the northeast, the southeast, Florida, Texas and the southwest, people know Delta. In Mexico...the Caribbean, Sou
: As part of the deal Delta made with SkyWest to buy ASA, if Delta drops ASA and/or SkyWest as a Delta Connection carrier within 4 years of the close o
: US started out with that thinking with regards to PIT, they found out quickly once you start to downsize (even if to small regional markets) it has a
: You can, but you'll still leave the door wide open for LCC's. Take a look at Boston, where DL, AA and US all have focus cities designed to cater to t
: There's no way they'd downgrade SLC all the way to a focus city. SLC is a vitally important part of the DL network, and there's a lot to lose by down
: There are several interest groups that will benefit from airline mergers. They will keep spreading rumors (and promote their agenda in other ways) ver
: Does anyone think this will really get past the Fed's?
: This potential merger would create terrible fleet integration issues, as NW is primarily an Airbus company and DL is clearly Boeing. Would require alo
: OK, I'll play along... Hubs, in order of size/build-up: ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC, JFK Intl hub at AMS - I wouldn't be surprised if the new carrier will laun
: nope Delta Air Lines will be the name i disagree i see it becoming Delta Cargo delta name=bye-bye Unions Delta is the name Delta is much larger plus
: It might be free enterprise but there are also anti trust provisions in our law.
: I will say what I have posted in the other 100 threads about a DL/NW merger. What needs to happen is not the traditional merger but one where there is
: A side question: would a combined NW/DL keep it's "golden share" on CO's board, to block any merger? Or would that pretty much end that relationship,
: add Delta'TechOps to that list as they are one of (if not the)largestest MX insourceing companys in the USA(only AA's could be biger)
: Not to rain on the parade or go off-topic but are NW and DL really that compatible and is the environment really right for a meger. I mean both are ju
: I agree with you 100%. I doubt there is going to be any merger announcment in the coming days. Better yet months. NW is just being built back up and
: If anything, a DL/NW combo will enhance it. Both carriers code-share with AS with their respective flights to SEA. QX would be the big winner if DL/O
: On the DC-9's and Compass, Mesaba, etc. thing I agree with you. But I still see the A330 staying in the fleet, but trying to even off the 777's and 3
: Why would you give up profitable routes to a codeshare partner?
: AS/QX are VERY small in the national spectrum of airline service and getting connection passengers is vital. DL/NW would benefit them more than compe
: With stock prices continuing to tank, and oil prices rising and staying high for the immediate future, along with pressure from short-term hedge-fund
: And they will fly what? And why would they do that? Have you ever heard of either of those things ever happening once? An order sold to a 3rd party?
: DALPA and TechOps will want the Scarebus gone ASAP i would bet that Delta WILL order 777s and 737s to replace the buses again DALPA wont let them sta
: Actually an economic downturn would probably be the catalyst that would lead to mergers. The theory goes that the airlines would be able to reduce re
: thats easy ask a Delta pilot and look at what happened to the brand new PA A310s.......Delta hates scarebus and loves Boeing Delta will get a great d
: I find it rather bizarre to refer to the extremely successful A330 or the A320 as a "Scarebus", but whatever rings your bell. And if Delta did merge
: after hearing all the storys from my grandpa's(one exDL MX and 1 exUA ramp) and both worked bus's and hearing the storys about those airplanes.......
: You might be the only one who doesn't think so. That's been my opinion as well. I agree, dump the Airbii but keep the 738s and increase the 737-700 o
: As I said, whatever rings your bell. I just find it bizarre. Oh, and by the way - If - stress "if" - Delta bids for NWA, then it is likely NWA stock
: Except that doesn't make any business sense at all, and the airline isn't run by the 13-15 age bracket on airliners.net. Choices like that is why the
: YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME. That single action alone would wipe out any single savings of a mergered entity. You simply do not go and replace rela
: You mean Pan Am's original A310-200s? I know what happened, Delta placed an order for new A310-300s and continued to fly them until the more capable
: thats why I'm 17 smart ass and so because I'm 17 that makes me stupid? Thats a load of crap BTW dude please tell me your joking.......Boeing will pre
: And This is Coming from L1011 Man who hates Northwest because it operates "Scarebus". Well, I think NW is almost just as cheap as Delta. Only Around
: im sorry Delta HATED the A310s ask anyone who worked for Delta at the time and im pretty sure those where PA order A310s not Delta but i'm not saying
: "Delta hates Scarebus" as the answer to a well thought out question. Nuff said. Again, why? I told you why they would not. You tell me why they would
: Change of ownership at NWA kills the Golden Share, it is not transferable. Even if it were the DOJ would require it's disposition as part of an appro
: i don't hate NW and i dont hate Scarebus........i think a DL/NW would be the best of the merge options for Delta i was just pointing out the fact the
: thats why the DALPA had a meeting right after the UA scare and told everyone that ANY bus's wil be gone ASAP and thats why there are so many dam Scar
: He's not joking. DL's currently scheduled deliveries can use slots from previous orders and options. Even if Boeing were to accommodate DL, there is
: In the process they'd cannibalize their successful DAY and to a lesser extent IND operations. Don't forget DAY also draws from CMH... CVG is a long d
: DL does not "not like" Airbus and US doesn't hate Boeing.
: right thats why Delta has so many Airbus and thats why US will be replacing all Boeing with Airbus guys airlines dont have to like Airbus or Boeing i
: Its business, not personal. US invited, and listened to, proposals from Boeing. DL has done the same in the past. DL has a significant number of 738s
: not true DL had 47 738s on order and sold 45 a took 2 this year the 73Gs were a new order and my point was that the 737 is "sold out" and again i thi
: I see a combined carrier keeping the A330's for the very reason that if they do combine, they will need even more international capacity to expand. DT