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NW/TPG Buyout Review Deadline Looms  
User currently offlineMikey711MN From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1400 posts, RR: 8
Posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 2820 times:

Ultimately, not much new in the article except for this gem...

http://stmedia.startribune.com/images/765*272/3midwest0107.jpg

Classic!

Anyway, here are some interesting snippets from the article, beginning with the description of the additionally requested info about the transaction...

Quote:
The U.S. Department of Justice asked the companies to provide a second round of data, which is allowing the federal government to do a detailed analysis of the markets served by Northwest and Midwest.

The fact that the Justice Department sought voluminous information on pricing and schedules shows interest in the deal's potential "anticompetitive effects," said Tom Sheran, an attorney with Moss & Barnett, Minneapolis. In many acquisitions, there is no requirement to provide a second set of data, he said.

So there at least appeared to be some scrupulous smoke here to the extent that this isn't an acquisition of assets per se but rather a sort of post hoc merger...

Quote:
"DOJ has apparently chosen to review the transaction as if it were a merger," said Ben Hirst, Northwest's senior vice president of corporate affairs and administration.

Hirst emphasized that Northwest has "made no decision as to whether or when to exercise our option" to buy TPG's majority stake.

The lynchpin, then, seems to be the ability for NW to buy out TPG, which of course mitigates their risk succinctly and secures their investment. In other words, they can simply hold onto Midwest until they got their ROI and sell to NWA whenever, which is what others seem to have the problem with.

Quote:
In a white paper released in December, the American Antitrust Institute urged federal regulators to "fully consider" the effects of Northwest's buyout option "on restraining competition and potentially closing the door to entry in markets in which Northwest and Midwest could wield market power."

Interestingly, then, is the notion of market power, which is described from 30,000 feet as...

Quote:
If Northwest bought TPG's share of Midwest, Skornicka said it "would hardly move the needle" on Northwest's market power. She described Midwest as a "very small airline" that has one-half of 1 percent of domestic airline capacity.

...but on the surface as...

Quote:
Northwest flies out of six gates.

...and...

Quote:
In 2003, Northwest reported that Milwaukee travelers had generated nearly $100 million in domestic revenue for it during 2002.

That's some needle!

Finally, there is some precedent with TPG and NW, which is summarized...

Quote:
In January 1998, Northwest struck a deal to buy Texas Pacific Group's shares in Continental Airlines and form a long-term alliance with Continental. The Texas-based airline chose that option over a potential merger with Delta.

The Justice Department gave its blessing to the Northwest-Continental alliance, but challenged the stock transaction. "They sued us and we had a court case, but we went ahead and bought the shares anyway," Steenland recalled. Ultimately, Northwest sold its shares back to Continental.

So I suppose history could repeat itself.

FYI, MEH stocks rose ~3% today to $14.63, still slightly below the NW/TPG price that suggests that the market is still not 100% sure this is getting done.

In other news, FL still has those 2 additional gates at MKE and haven't done much of anything with them since. Stay tuned!

Discuss civilly,
-Mike


I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
29 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 1, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2792 times:



Quoting Mikey711MN (Thread starter):
this gem

That is the new highly efficient A320NGWXZ300.

I wonder if NW were to get TPG's stock, they would pursue full take-over and merger. If that doesn't happen, could NW just make it a major Domestic partner. If a full merger were to happen, would NW keep Midwest as is and make it a "main line subsidiary" or fully integrate it which could be nasty.



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineSNCntry32 From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 1520 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2765 times:



Quoting Centrair (Reply 1):
If a full merger were to happen, would NW keep Midwest as is and make it a "main line subsidiary" or fully integrate it which could be nasty.

I could see full integration... And it would be ugly. Hasnt NW launched massive attempts to make MKE a hub? And failed every time?



Long Live Memphis!
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23152 posts, RR: 20
Reply 3, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2707 times:



Quoting Mikey711MN (Thread starter):

So there at least appeared to be some scrupulous smoke here to the extent that this isn't an acquisition of assets per se but rather a sort of post hoc merger...

As the man (rightly) points out in the article, many mergers do not require a second set of data. The corollary there is that many do. Sounds like a slow news day in the upper Midwest more than anything else...



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineMcamargo From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 129 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 2658 times:



Quoting Mikey711MN (Thread starter):
except for this gem...

Hmm... would adding the T-tail actually benefit the airbus?  Smile



I live for the day mainline returns to BRO...
User currently offlineMikey711MN From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1400 posts, RR: 8
Reply 5, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 2575 times:

Interestingly timed editorial in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel today written by a former Midwest Marketing Manager. Using DLH, he raises a valid point that may play out in smaller communities currently served by MKE:

Quote:
In this case, Northwest is strategically incapable of being a passive investor with TPG Capital. The experience at Duluth, Minn., may highlight why passivity is already a myth.

Midwest announced new flights to Duluth early in its takeover battle. The service was designed to connect Duluth with the Midwest network. Northwest had a lock on daily service prior to Midwest's three daily round trips. One other airline served Duluth, and it only operated flights on Wednesdays and Saturdays to Las Vegas.

Midwest began the Duluth service on March 4, 2007. The takeover involving Northwest was revealed on Aug. 12. On Oct. 19, Midwest announced it would drop Duluth. The city's business newspaper didn't mince words: "Northwest ownership likely affected Midwest decision to exit Duluth."

I'm not sure how much I buy the timing of that vis-a-vis the codeshare agreement, but that only establishes this route cancellation as a means to ferry DLH traffic via MSP instead.

I would imagine then that this kind of phenomenon will be scrutinized by the DOJ as it attempts to establish precisely how YX and NW can remain "competitors" while having a unified strategy for cost cutting and network optimization, i.e. funneling this traffic to MSP or DTW and subsequently weakening the MKE hub.

-Mike



I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
User currently offlineMKENut From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 699 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 2472 times:

I'd be more comfortable if only TPG was involved in the purchase of Midwest... If this merger gets approved, NWA is going to eventually be the sole owner of Midwest and that will be the end of it. MKE will no longer be a hub and RJ's will rule the airport. Midwest didn't need to merge with any airline, but Joe Leonard had to have his way. He couldn't take no for an answer. If Midwest is truly in trouble, he could have waited a year or two and then made his move. But I have a feeling the climate is "eat or be eaten" as mergers will be more prevalent in 2008. Maybe Joe felt the need for a merger partner so his AirTran would be eaten.

User currently offlineMKENut From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 699 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 2452 times:



Quoting MKENut (Reply 6):
Maybe Joe felt the need for a merger partner so his AirTran would be eaten.

Sorry, the last sentence of my previous post should read as follows.....

Maybe Joe felt the need for a merger partner so his AirTran would not be eaten.


User currently offlineJBo From Sweden, joined Jan 2005, 2363 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 2358 times:



Quoting MKENut (Reply 6):
I'd be more comfortable if only TPG was involved in the purchase of Midwest... If this merger gets approved, NWA is going to eventually be the sole owner of Midwest and that will be the end of it.

I'd be more comfortable, too, if TPG was the sole entity involved ... but there's nothing for certain yet that says YX will disappear under NW's control, no matter how likely or unlikely it may seem, so I refuse to make any such conclusions for the time being.

For all we know, the Midwest/TPG deal could end up being just like the Continental/TPG deal years ago, as is quoted above ... and CO is alive and with us today.

I'm just glad that Midwest isn't going to be absorbed into AirTran, because that would have been certain death for the company.

At least now, no matter what ultimately happens, we will still be around for some time.



I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
User currently offlineMikey711MN From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1400 posts, RR: 8
Reply 9, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 2305 times:



Quoting MKENut (Reply 6):
I'd be more comfortable if only TPG was involved in the purchase of Midwest

As any investment organization, they had their price point and their amount of acceptable risk. I'm certain that they had zero motivation to go alone and shell out the full amount that the combined buyout reached (much less what AAI was offering) nor have the ability to nearly have a guaranteed ROI that NWA passively offers as part of the current arrangement. They would've needed to believe that YX's brand truly has that kind of value to own it outright and to make money in the long run. Somewhat indirectly, then, the combined bid suggests that they don't believe that, but that doesn't mean that they can't make money in the buy-and-sell transactions.

Quoting JBo (Reply 8):
nothing for certain

Indeed this is true. But this much is certain: if YX's existence as a separate entity eats away at the NW bottom line by comparison to a wholly merged NW/YX, then that'll be the day that TPG can/will cash out. (and what the DOJ must scrutinize is whether YX will exist with the attempt to genuinely compete, i.e. "eat away", from the regional market that exists)

-Mike



I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
User currently offlineKnope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2951 posts, RR: 30
Reply 10, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 2231 times:



Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 9):
But this much is certain: if YX's existence as a separate entity eats away at the NW bottom line by comparison to a wholly merged NW/YX, then that'll be the day that TPG can/will cash out

That leads to a point I think sometimes overlooked.

Which is a better financial deal for Northwest?

(a) Midwest as stand-alone carrier
--Status quo in Milwaukee and Wisconsin
--LCC's in Milwaukee kept in check by Midwest
--Cost of fighting against or coexisting with LCC's in Milwaukee borne by Midwest


(b) Northwest takes over Midwest
--Milwaukee market more up-for-grabs by increased LCC incurrsion
--Significantly-increased LCC presence slams NW yields in MKE plus hurts NW in Madison, Green Bay, Appleton
--Cost of fighting against or coexisting with LCC's in Milwaukee borne by Northwest


This is no guarantee that NW will never take over YX. But Northwest's bottom-line benefit from preserving the status quo greatly overshadows the added bottom-line benefit of absorbing Midwest's markets and removing a rather small competitor.


User currently offlineMikey711MN From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1400 posts, RR: 8
Reply 11, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 2159 times:



Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 10):
This is no guarantee that NW will never take over YX. But Northwest's bottom-line benefit from preserving the status quo greatly overshadows the added bottom-line benefit of absorbing Midwest's markets and removing a rather small competitor.

Your conclusion is only as good as your assumptions, so let's look at those...

Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 10):
(a) Midwest as stand-alone carrier
--Status quo in Milwaukee and Wisconsin
--LCC's in Milwaukee kept in check by Midwest
--Cost of fighting against or coexisting with LCC's in Milwaukee borne by Midwest

1. Status quo?!? Surely current levels of service can not be assumed as unchanging in either case, and the crux of the editorial posted above uses the pulldown of DLH as an example of this. Conversely, service has been added to SEA. Add to this the expressed desires to grow MCI with the YX* operation. So I hardly think that status quo is a direct effect of this--or either--case. As an additional comment, this isn't solely about MKE after all...Boyd's own estimates were revised downwards to reflect the purchase by TPG/NW versus a FL buyout (reflected in his initial estimate) as it was largely perceived that MKE would serve as FL's midwest hub. It has never been successfully argued on this board or any publication that MKE would lose service in the short-term from a FL buyout, and it has been weakly substantiated that FL was taking a cut-and-run approach to MKE service.
2. How is this demonstrated? FL already has established a 6% market share in MKE since their arrival and have doubled their gates. This point is speculation at best and far from a proven fact that YX alone is somehow fully capable by themselves to fight off the onslaught of FL, much less if B6 came to town with NYC and/or BOS service or WN with whatever.
3. True, but NW still owns 47% of an "independent" YX and subsequently will bear a fraction of these costs in that ownership.

Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 10):
(b) Northwest takes over Midwest
--Milwaukee market more up-for-grabs by increased LCC incurrsion
--Significantly-increased LCC presence slams NW yields in MKE plus hurts NW in Madison, Green Bay, Appleton
--Cost of fighting against or coexisting with LCC's in Milwaukee borne by Northwest

1. The underlying statement here, if I'm following your parallel structure, is that NW would cut back on MKE ops by comparison to the "status quo" or zero sum effect argued otherwise (which I commented on above). To remove the speculation component of it all, let's consider the physical possibilities of this: increased LCC presence would only be possible if a net increase in gate space could be obtained, which assumes then that NW would vacate some amount of what used to be YX's. While indeed likely, in which case I concur with this assumption, if the subsequent pulldown were marginal enough to the extent that NW would rather eat the costs of that excess, that is their option and there is precident in this very airport of that happening...they've owned the bulk of Concourse E for years and they've been far from utilizing it extensively (save for the ill-fated Heartland Strategy).
2. Again, this is in-line with what I argued above: YX is subject to this incursion in either case. Moreover, YX is in no position to expand for quite some time with precisely zero planes on order, so their exposure to, say, nonstop west coast service is particularly high. With a pulldown, indeed this effect is magnified.
3. Borne 100% vs. 47%...again, they've already committed to a fair chunk of YX's costs to battle incursion. Again, agreed that once incursion increases to the extent that the cost of fighting > cost of acquiring assets and redistributing them to solidify the NWA domestic network, MKE will be left as nothing more than the focus city for NW.

With all due respect, I think the point that you've missed here is that this deal doesn't revolve around MKE, and if you analyze so microscopically, you've ignored subsequent yield dilution in other midwestern markets that can now be served by a viable LCC entrenched in the region. That will materially impact NW far more than simply looking at the profitability of one of their stations.

-Mike



I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23152 posts, RR: 20
Reply 12, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 2080 times:



Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 9):

Indeed this is true. But this much is certain: if YX's existence as a separate entity eats away at the NW bottom line by comparison to a wholly merged NW/YX, then that'll be the day that TPG can/will cash out.

Who says that YX 'eats away at NW's bottom line?' NW does fine at MKE, but it is not (and cannot be) a hub for them. How does NW benefit from buying and dissolving YX?

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 11):
2. How is this demonstrated? FL already has established a 6% market share in MKE since their arrival and have doubled their gates. This point is speculation at best and far from a proven fact that YX alone is somehow fully capable by themselves to fight off the onslaught of FL, much less if B6 came to town with NYC and/or BOS service or WN with whatever.

YX has already essentially fended off one LCC focus city at MKE: NW's. Why would FL or B6 or anyone else be any different?



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineSkyexramper From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 2020 times:



Quoting Mikey711MN (Thread starter):
FYI, MEH stocks rose ~3% today to $14.63, still slightly below the NW/TPG price that suggests that the market is still not 100% sure this is getting done.

That is nothing....the Midwest stocks have fallen from $15.80 over the last 2 weeks. A 3% rise is nothing. As of 11:27 PM CST, Tuesday Jan. 8th the MEH stocks closed out at $14.19.


User currently offlineSkyexRamper From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 1912 times:

Closed 1/9/08: $13.99


Looks like shareholders are possibly dumping their stock because this whole deal is dragging on way too long without word from Timmy.

[Edited 2008-01-09 22:46:42]

User currently offlineMainland From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 309 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 1844 times:

It should be noted that Octavian has sold about 700,000 shares since late September -- limiting their exposure just in case the deal gets shot down.

And what is Tim supposed to come out and say? There's little, if anything, he can say that will make the process go any faster.



You don't need a passport to know what state you're in...
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6646 posts, RR: 24
Reply 16, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 1813 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 12):
YX has already essentially fended off one LCC focus city at MKE: NW's. Why would FL or B6 or anyone else be any different?

Since when is NW considered an LCC? Particularly given how high NW's cost were at the time they launched the MKE focus city? I'm not saying FL or B6 would be successful with a hub/focus city at MKE, but I don't think NW is a very valid comparison.


User currently offlineHeavyMx1 From United States of America, joined Jun 2003, 305 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 1785 times:

So what happens if this proposal it sent back with out approval? I have a couple thoughts what do you guys think.

1. Yx/TPG/Nw revise their deal and try again, maybe without NW involved

2. TPG walks away leaving YX/NW with limited options

3. FL comes back with a One time take it or leave it offer, in turn institutional investors put some serious pressure on Yx

4. Some other group (airline/investor) makes an offer

My personal opinion is that FL would make another attempt, after all the time and money they invested in their take over attempt it would only make sense for them to give it another shot.

As for NW would they still want to be involved with a smaller stake with out the option to aquire YX in the future.



I am better than you because I live on an Island
User currently offlineRJNUT From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 1238 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 1739 times:

if this deal is getting this kind of scrutiny, how will any of these speculative mega mergers EVER pass muster??!!

User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23152 posts, RR: 20
Reply 19, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 1669 times:



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 16):

Since when is NW considered an LCC?

They tried to fill planes with low fares, and they couldn't even fill CRJs... that's the LCC model, isn't it?



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6646 posts, RR: 24
Reply 20, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 1636 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 19):
They tried to fill planes with low fares, and they couldn't even fill CRJs... that's the LCC model, isn't it?

But NW doesn't have low costs!!!! So regardless of loadfactors, NW wasn't going to make money on these routes.

Not to mention that using CRJ's isn't necessarily going to woo a lot of customers away from MEH. However, neither FL or B6 would use CRJ's should they choose to beef up at MKE.


User currently offlineNorthwestEWR From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 461 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 1635 times:



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 20):
But NW doesn't have low costs!!!! So regardless of loadfactors, NW wasn't going to make money on these routes.

Well yeah but they weren't in it to make money, they were there to kill YX. You don't need low costs to act like an LCC, you just won't make money doing it.



ARJ 319 320 333 717 733 735 73G 738 739 742 752 753 762 772 CRJ CR9 ER3 ERJ FRJ J31 J41 D9S D94 D95 M81 M82 M88
User currently offlineMKENut From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 699 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 1612 times:



Quoting HeavyMx1 (Reply 17):
So what happens if this proposal it sent back with out approval? I have a couple thoughts what do you guys think.

1. Yx/TPG/Nw revise their deal and try again, maybe without NW involved

2. TPG walks away leaving YX/NW with limited options

3. FL comes back with a One time take it or leave it offer, in turn institutional investors put some serious pressure on Yx

4. Some other group (airline/investor) makes an offer

My personal opinion is that FL would make another attempt, after all the time and money they invested in their take over attempt it would only make sense for them to give it another shot.

As for NW would they still want to be involved with a smaller stake with out the option to aquire YX in the future.

I think if the DOJ doesn't approve the deal, MEH stock will plummet to about $3.50 a share. NWA will walk away since they will already be in talks with DL to merge. TPG will not go forward with their share of the deal leaving AirTran the only one left that can get Midwest at a bargain. Joe Leonard is rubbing his hands together and laughing an evil laugh right now.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6646 posts, RR: 24
Reply 23, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 1581 times:



Quoting MKENut (Reply 22):
NWA will walk away since they will already be in talks with DL to merge.

That's a good point. If NWA and DL were to merge, I wouldn't be surprised to see NW dump their purchase of MEH. In fact, I'm guessing they might be required to dump that interest in order to satisfy the feds.

Quoting NorthwestEWR (Reply 21):
Well yeah but they weren't in it to make money, they were there to kill YX. You don't need low costs to act like an LCC, you just won't make money doing it.

True. All the more reason that comparing NW's focus city in MKE isn't relevant to a possible focus city by FL or B6.


User currently offlineNorthwestEWR From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 461 posts, RR: 3
Reply 24, posted (6 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 1567 times:



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 23):
True. All the more reason that comparing NW's focus city in MKE isn't relevant to a possible focus city by FL or B6.

I don't see it as any different, the desired result is the same regardless of the carriers involved. They'd want to setup shop and take YX's market share. That's what NW wanted, they wanted to get rid of YX and take the market share.



ARJ 319 320 333 717 733 735 73G 738 739 742 752 753 762 772 CRJ CR9 ER3 ERJ FRJ J31 J41 D9S D94 D95 M81 M82 M88
25 Quickmover : DL/NW will never happen if NW/MEH happens first. My guess is DL/NW is more valuable to NW than NW/MEH. Even if the feds approve the current deal, I'd
26 Mainland : Midwest will owe NW/TPG a termination fee of $13,541,000 if they walk away. The agreement doesn't specifically say what the termination fee for NW/TP
27 HeavyMx1 : I'm sure there is some claus in the deal that if it is not approved by the feds that if not all most aspects of the deal are null. If that is true an
28 Cubsrule : Mainline should have, but it didn't, so they switched to CRJs... still couldn't fill them. If NW couldn't fill 88 seats to LGA, FL won't be able to f
29 Quickmover : I would agree with what you are saying, but I'm not sure FL would be back unless the price to get a deal done was alot less. FL and about every other
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