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Short/Medium Haul - Back To A Three-way Race?  
User currently offlineKensukeAida From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 217 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 1761 times:

When Boeing shut down the MD-8X line, the market for aircraft in the approx 120-200 seat class went to two competing designs: the Boeing 73X and Airbus A32X. And both manufacturers have laughed all the way to the bank. One thing I've noticed is that demand for the A32X and 73X have always outstripped the capacity to build them fast enough. I'm wondering when their replacements are announced, what the likelihood of somebody like Embraer or Bombardier getting into that market would be like? I suggest those two because they're the third and fourth as far as commercial deliveries. Then we could go back to a three way race.

Imagine the arguments here on A.net:

A vs. B vs. E, or A vs. B vs. C.

or

US vs. Europe vs. Brazil or US vs. Europe vs. Canada

Ideas?

- John

6 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineJbernie From Australia, joined Jan 2007, 880 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 1724 times:



Quoting KensukeAida (Thread starter):
what the likelihood of somebody like Embraer or Bombardier getting into that market would be like?

Between the cost of them developing the aircraft and getting the facilities etc etc that go with building such a jet, and then I guess they would want a pretty firm commitment from an Airline and a pretty sizable commitment too.....

Is it possible? Yes

Is it probable? No

An interesting concept none the less.


User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6146 posts, RR: 35
Reply 2, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 1675 times:

No, it will not be EMB or BBD. If there is a "third" viable competitor it would be some time in the future and would be Asian based.


Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineKensukeAida From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 217 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 1657 times:



Quoting Planemaker (Reply 2):
No, it will not be EMB or BBD. If there is a "third" viable competitor it would be some time in the future and would be Asian based.

Asia already has a piece of the pie as far as subcontracting for Boeing. Specifically in Japan, Singapore, and Vietnam.
China making mainline airliners at this point scares the crap out of me. You wouldn't see me on one.

A resurgent Russia? Possibly. The Tu-204 proves that they can make designs that can compete with Boeing and Airbus.
It's ashame they haven't gotten too many orders for them.

I think Embraer has matured enough as a company where they could easily step into the market if they wanted to.

- John


User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6146 posts, RR: 35
Reply 4, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 1645 times:



Quoting KensukeAida (Reply 3):
Asia already has a piece of the pie as far as subcontracting for Boeing. Specifically in Japan, Singapore, and Vietnam.
China making mainline airliners at this point scares the crap out of me. You wouldn't see me on one.

It is much too early to state with certainty how things might shake out but China certainly has plans to manufacture a full range of single-aisle airliners. However, China and India might join forces and sub out components to other asian nations.

Quoting KensukeAida (Reply 3):
A resurgent Russia? Possibly. The Tu-204 proves that they can make designs that can compete with Boeing and Airbus.

Russia will be a niche player... not a full family that will compete with A and B.

Quoting KensukeAida (Reply 3):
I think Embraer has matured enough as a company where they could easily step into the market if they wanted to.

Too small financially to compete on a full range of single-aisle airliners that would match Boeing and Airbus' families.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3389 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 1616 times:

I wonder about the Japanese as there's the MRJ on it's way and the possibility of a civilian version of the ASW jets that are currently being developed. Maybe Toyota could start making planes - after all Boeing used them as a model when they were setting up their moving production line! Big grin

User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6146 posts, RR: 35
Reply 6, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 1466 times:



Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 5):
I wonder about the Japanese as there's the MRJ on it's way

It is only an RJ with "long legs"... 4-abreast and sized along the lines of the CRJ-700 and CRJ-900, not a threat to A or B.

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 5):
Maybe Toyota could start making planes

They have... a 4-seat prototype that was built by Scaled.  Big grin



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
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