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Taxiwayecho.com?  
User currently offlineJoeljack From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 955 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 3348 times:

This is an interesting site. taxiwayecho.com

It predicts new airline routes. Had not heard about it yet. Doesn't say where it gets the information from. Probably just some "expert" making predictions based off trends and fares in a market. Anybody can do that if you check into it.

Did some looking and I feel like I can make better predictions for Omaha than they can. TPA, FLL, JFK, PHL and SEA are theirs.

Personally I think an LAX , IAD and CLT flights have better chances from OMA then any of those except maybe PHL.

What's everyone think? Where does the info come from? Will the site last?

31 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6790 posts, RR: 17
Reply 1, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 3304 times:

Just checked out RDU..

BUF --- agree
RSW -- agree
HOU -- disagree (replace with PVD)
OAK -- disagree (replace with PBI)
OKC -- disagree (replace with CUN by another carrier)



Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineFuturecaptain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 3259 times:

Just checked out TUL.

CLT---perhaps. US Airways doesn't yet serve TUL. A flight to PHX and CLT would be intersting to start up by US.
MDW---probably not. The TUL area is very loyal to AAmerican and they offer several daily flights to ORD already.
LAX---I'd doubt it. Tulsa is just one of those midwest cities you don't expect to have service to everywhere, you expect to connect at a hub.
SFO---Same reasoning as above. Add to that UA already has several dailies to DEN from which you can connect to most anywhere you need to be on the west coast.
TPA---I never thought we had a market for a flight, but what do I know?


User currently offlineECONOMICS From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 3247 times:

does it cover int routes to USA ?

If so, what about V Aust?

SYD/SFO

& BNE/SFO we think.


User currently offlineAirTranTUS From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3159 times:

Their TUS predictions are laughable.

BOS: Are you serious? PHX only has 3x daily themselves.
BUR: Interesting, but with 3 airlines on TUS-LAX and XE on TUS-ONT, I don't see this fitting in.
FLL: By B6 I would imagine, but where is the market? B6 isn't the type to "create" demand.
LGB: Another B6 candidate, but as others have pointed out to me before, not much chance since LGB is slot restricted.
MCO: I'm sure there is a market for the flights since MCO is a popular destination, and I would imagine WN would be the one to do it. They may have better luck filling the plane if they do TUS-HOU-MCO and back.


User currently offlineJmc1975 From Israel, joined Sep 2000, 3313 posts, RR: 15
Reply 5, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 3097 times:



Quoting AirTranTUS (Reply 4):
LGB: Another B6 candidate, but as others have pointed out to me before, not much chance since LGB is slot restricted

Perhaps XE could do it depending on slots.

Some predictions here seem feasible...some are as earlier said, laughable. They completely missed US CLT-SAT as a potential route. Furthermore, what is NOT mentioned on the website are potential dropped markets as we are now entering into an industry downturn in potential revenue generation.



.......
User currently offlineNighthawk From UK - Scotland, joined Sep 2001, 5185 posts, RR: 33
Reply 6, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 3005 times:



Quoting Joeljack (Thread starter):
This is an interesting site. taxiwayecho.com

... in no way affiliated with my site - www.taxiwayalpha.com ...



That'll teach you
User currently offlineHBDAN From Switzerland, joined Jan 2006, 661 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 2995 times:

MIA - BHX ?????

Did someone hear rumors about this coming? Which airline would you think could start this service?

HBDAN



Next flight: hopefully soon...
User currently offlineAll4BWI From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 2907 times:

It's important to keep in mind that if you look at the five predictions for any given airport, there are at least five more predictions (and in some cases ten more) for that airport that are available to the site's premium members (ETOPS Members). So if you aren't an ETOPS Member and you're looking at predictions for a particular airport, remember that you're only seeing half the predictions, and possibly only a third of them.

Another thing to remember is that some of the new routes that are predicted could take a few years to start. We'll take TUS for example. How many new routes do you think TUS will get in 2008? I'll go out on a limb and say it won't be five new routes. So some of the predictions may take a little more time to develop than others.



To God be the glory
User currently offlineAll4BWI From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2860 times:



Quoting Joeljack (Thread starter):
Where does the info come from? Will the site last?

The site's FAQ section provides a little more insight on how predictions are made. Also in the What's New section it provides the site's prediction accuracy rates. With over 71% accuracy on mainline routes, I would venture to say that the site will be around for a wihle.



To God be the glory
User currently offlineJoeljack From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 955 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2854 times:



Quoting All4BWI (Reply 9):

The site's FAQ section provides a little more insight on how predictions are made. Also in the What's New section it provides the site's prediction accuracy rates. With over 71% accuracy on mainline routes, I would venture to say that the site will be around for a wihle.

Yeah I read all that. In addition, you take the top 10 or 15 unserved routes from each of the airports and if a route is announced from this list then that would make the website accurate. I feel like with some time, I could make the same list and be just as, if not more accurate than the website. Notice on the the regional routes, non-mainline, that it's less than 15% accurate. This just shows that they are just guesses based off someone having too much time on their hands.

Guessing routes AUS-CLT doesn't take rocket science and thus 71% accurate. Guessing Expressjet routes like OMA-TUS, who in the world would guess this without inside info. Hence the 15% accurate for regional routes.


User currently offlineAll4BWI From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2843 times:



Quoting Joeljack (Reply 10):
Notice on the the regional routes, non-mainline, that it's less than 15% accurate. This just shows that they are just guesses based off someone having too much time on their hands.

I can assure you that there's no guessing involved; a few hundred hours of research went into the initial set of predictions, and that research continues on a daily basis. But it is true that the regional routes are much more difficult to predict. When you have a hub that has, we'll just say up to 20 or 30 similar sized markets within a certain mile radius that could be served by a regional aircraft, it is no doubt going to be tough.



To God be the glory
User currently offlineJoeljack From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 955 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2811 times:



Quoting All4BWI (Reply 11):
I can assure you that there's no guessing involved; a few hundred hours of research went into the initial set of predictions, and that research continues on a daily basis.

Like I said above, if I had too much time on my hands too, I could come up with the same guesses too. I was just saying that there isn't anything special about the guesses. Knowing airport or airline insiders would be a whole different story and then would provide some valuable information. I'm sure that most people on this site that follow aviation have done this exact same thing with their hometown airports. It's probably more accurate too because of all the local articles published in local news sources or on TV that are not taken into account.

For example, United stated DSM-LAX and the airport admin in Omaha has said on local radio that he is trying to get United to start OMA-LAX. He seemed fairly confident that as soon as United gets more CR7's, this will happen. He was hopeful for this summer. I fully expect this to one of the next if not the next route from Omaha. taxiwayecho.com doesn't even have this on the list of top 5 airports but instead has airports that probably won't get service for years to come, like SEA-OMA. What do I know though, it's not like I don't read every article, blog, blip, news report, radio address etc on Omaha and Des Moines aviation.


User currently offlineAll4BWI From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 2750 times:



Quoting Joeljack (Reply 12):
For example, United stated DSM-LAX and the airport admin in Omaha has said on local radio that he is trying to get United to start OMA-LAX.

When the initial research was done for OMA, Midwest Airlines was flying OMA-LAX nonstop, and the OMA predictions have not been updated since the website launched. There are 70 airports featured on the site and it takes time to get to certain ones.

Quoting Joeljack (Reply 10):
This just shows that they are just guesses based off someone having too much time on their hands.

I'm the chief executive officer of the company that owns TaxiwayEcho.com, and I typically work about 70 hours a week. This should explain why I have so much time on my hands to devote to the website, considering the fact that it's my job.



To God be the glory
User currently offlineOly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6845 posts, RR: 11
Reply 14, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 2713 times:



Quoting HBDAN (Reply 7):
MIA - BHX ?????

Birmingham, Alabama (BHM), is the only one I can find.



wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
User currently offlineJoeljack From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 955 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 2641 times:



Quoting All4BWI (Reply 13):
When the initial research was done for OMA, Midwest Airlines was flying OMA-LAX nonstop, and the OMA predictions have not been updated since the website launched. There are 70 airports featured on the site and it takes time to get to certain ones.

Ok, I'll cut you some slack on this one since Midwest just dropped it 2 weeks ago.

On a side note, I do like the layout of the webpage. Some time was definitely put into it. I don't know how much use there is for a webpage like yours with this page dominating discussions already. It is interesting to see other people's opinions though. I wish you the best of luck.


User currently offlineKELPkid From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 6428 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 2626 times:

ELP-BWI???

Someone must be smoking something funny...

EDIT:

Even more hillarious is MCO-ELP  Wink

[Edited 2008-01-17 10:50:39]


Celebrating the birth of KELPkidJR on August 5, 2009 :-)
User currently offlineBAKJet From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 744 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 2608 times:

I think that the the ones that they have for IND are pretty realistic. Except for HOU because didn't WN start this route and cancel it awhile back.

User currently offlineAll4BWI From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 2552 times:



Quoting KELPkid (Reply 16):
Even more hillarious is MCO-ELP

Southwest flies MCO-JAN, and the Jackson, MS metro area has roughly 530,000 people. The El Paso metro area has over 736,000 people. With that in mind, is the idea of MCO-ELP really that hilarious?



To God be the glory
User currently offlineKELPkid From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 6428 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 2530 times:

Quoting All4BWI (Reply 18):
Southwest flies MCO-JAN, and the Jackson, MS metro area has roughly 530,000 people. The El Paso metro area has over 736,000 people. With that in mind, is the idea of MCO-ELP really that hilarious?

I doubt that ELP could sustain what is esentially a leisure market on a daily basis...unless there's significant business ties between El Paso and Orlando that I'm not aware of? Haven't seen Mickey Mouse around El Paso much myself...  

Maybe in the future, with the New Mexico Spaceport, this will become a shuttle flight for manned spaceflight personnel between Cape Canaveral and the Spaceport, but that's still a few years out yet  

EDIT: by the way, you can already get there with one stop on multiple carriers...

[Edited 2008-01-17 12:03:18]


Celebrating the birth of KELPkidJR on August 5, 2009 :-)
User currently offlineMSYtristar From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 2506 times:

From MSY...I can see 3 out of 5 being added "at some point".

CMH (probably will happen via DL Connection at some point)
MKE (might happen by FL at some point)
OAK (former WN route...this one has to come back at some point)
ORF (not much O&D between the two cities...not sure why they picked this city to be honest)
PIT (US used to fly it of course...but now, I see no candidates)


User currently offlineAll4BWI From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 2472 times:



Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 20):
PIT (US used to fly it of course...but now, I see no candidates)

WN



To God be the glory
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33289 posts, RR: 71
Reply 22, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2393 times:

This whole website is a joke. Granted, I do agree with some of their "predictions" (i.e. MIA-BHM), but they expect you to pay for this? What "research" do they do? Read wish lists on these forums?

Quoting All4BWI (Reply 18):

Southwest flies MCO-JAN, and the Jackson, MS metro area has roughly 530,000 people. The El Paso metro area has over 736,000 people. With that in mind, is the idea of MCO-ELP really that hilarious?

You are ignoring geography here.



a.
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23304 posts, RR: 20
Reply 23, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2375 times:

Some of the stuff on there is absolutely absurd... MDW-MEM? Who's going to try that? 9E couldn't make it work with $70/barrel oil... STL-TYS? Come on.


I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinePVD757 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3420 posts, RR: 16
Reply 24, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2372 times:

I would have thought that PVD-RSW, PVD-PBI, and PVD-JAX would have made the top 5, but hey, I'd be happy with PVD getting any new service in 2008.

25 DeltAirlines : MHT has the following: DEN - a possibility for F9 - they'll most likely either go to PVD or MHT. One or the other. Don't see UA doing it. RSW - possib
26 Jetblueguy22 : Its a cool site but for 4.95 a month its a little steep just to find new routes. Blue
27 All4BWI : I can personally guarantee that no forums were looked at during any stage of the research process.
28 HarrisAir :
29 Post contains images Jmc1975 : Very true! Basic knowledge of geography is absolutely essential for route planning and predictions. For JAN-MCO, there are not many connecting opport
30 ZTagged : Here's PIT, and this is pretty amusing. * Austin (AUS) - Don't think WN would do it. * Houston-Hobby (HOU) - More likely than AUS, but still unlikely.
31 All4BWI : You're certainly entitled to your opinion. However what I found amusing was the fact that four of the destinations you would "vote for" are already b
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