So, assuming there are eventually direct flights between Taiwan and Mainland China, which carriers win and lose? As I see it, the big loser is CX / KA. CX flies 15-16 HKG-TPE flights daily (e.g., on Jan. 24, they have scheduled 16 TPE to HKG flights: 8 on 330s, 4 on 777s, 2 on 744s and 2 on 343s). Presumably a large proportion of the passengers on these flights connect in HKG to cities in Mainland China. Also, a large number of these passengers would get to their destinations using CX's affiliate, KA, which would be a blow to their business.
The winners would presumably be the major Taiwan-based carriers (CI and Eva Airlines) and China-based carriers (China Eastern, Air China, China Southern, others???) who would pick up this direct traffic.
I'm not certain how this would affect other regional and international carriers--can anybody else think of players who might be helped or harmed if this all comes to pass?
So, if regular direct service is established between Taiwan and the PRC, how big is the hit to CX / KA, and how big is the bump for the Taiwan and China-based airlines?
The biggest loser will be Macau Airport and Air Macau. They will lose about 60-80% of their traffic. That's why there is a drive to get O&D casino traffic up before doomsday comes.
Cathay and Dragon will cut a few Taipeis and Pudongs but they can compete on price, service and most of all - connectivity. It takes time for Taipei to develop an extensive network to all points primary and secondary in China. And Taipei hasn't got the capacity to accommodate all the extra flights anyway. The impact isn't as big as some might think. At least to start with.
ElmoTheHobo From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1524 posts, RR: 1 Reply 3, posted (5 years 11 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 1563 times:
In the grand scheme of things, CX/KA stand to benefit because of their strategic alliance with CA. CA stands to pick up a lot of this new traffic. With CX/KA's strong presence in TPE, they will be able to give CA a head start vs CZ, BR, MU, or CI.
Warren747sp From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1134 posts, RR: 0 Reply 4, posted (5 years 11 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 1448 times:
The loser has got to be CX/KA and Air Macau. Why fly one stop and waste at least 2 hours when you can go non-stop to a whole bunch of premier destinations. The secondary cities are the only ones left to the losing airlines.
PanAm747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4242 posts, RR: 9 Reply 7, posted (5 years 11 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 1335 times:
Quote: The winner will be the people of Taiwan and China.
AMEN!!! I hope to see the day when direct travel between the two nations is established, along with the unification of the Korean peninsula. All parties involved can only benefit from communcation.
I don't think, however, you will see any kind of "Open Skies" agreement between the two Chinas any time soon. As I recall from a news report years ago, when a plane was allowed to fly TPE-PEK non-stop, it was carefully inspected so that no Taiwanese newspapers or magazines were allowed off the plane.
With China, always think "baby steps". Patience, unknown in western culture anymore, is a strong virtue here, and nothing will EVER be rushed.
As it is now, HKG serves nicely as a transition point from one China to the other. I think this agreement will work nicely for many years to come as change comes slowly between the PRC and ROC.
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Anonms From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 589 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (5 years 11 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 1291 times:
Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 3): In the grand scheme of things, CX/KA stand to benefit because of their strategic alliance with CA. CA stands to pick up a lot of this new traffic. With CX/KA's strong presence in TPE, they will be able to give CA a head start vs CZ, BR, MU, or CI.
If CI does join SkyTeam, codesharing with CZ will make establishing links between various cities on both sides a bit faster, as if both operate certain routes and then codeshare, that's double the routes (give or take) than what BR or MU could establish in a similar period of time.