ATWZW170 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 904 posts, RR: 3 Posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3955 times:
I keep hearing about DL/NW - why not US/NW? MEM is going away no matter how you look at it....So why couldn't US have hubs in CLT/PHL/MSP/LAS/PHX/DTW. Just seems like it would be a better hook up.
Success is getting what you want...happiness is liking what you get
MKE22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 1111 posts, RR: 2 Reply 1, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3943 times:
Quoting ATWZW170 (Thread starter): keep hearing about DL/NW - why not US/NW? MEM is going away no matter how you look at it....So why couldn't US have hubs in CLT/PHL/MSP/LAS/PHX/DTW. Just seems like it would be a better hook up.
The dance with America West didn't exactly happen too long ago. It does sound good hub wise, US may be looking as well though because they did try to merge with DL not all too long ago as well. Idk, we will see how US pans out in all of this.
COERJ145 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1420 posts, RR: 1 Reply 2, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3907 times:
I agree that NW/US would be an excellent combination, but with hubs, i'd say PHL would be downsized slightly in favor of DTW(better facilities). The fleets would combine well. A321s could be used to free up domestic 757s for TATL routes. However, the labor combination could be a problem. Also, I think NW would favor the name Northwest Airlines, over US Airways, it would have better recognition(especially across Europe and Asia).
Steeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 8809 posts, RR: 19 Reply 4, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3832 times:
Quoting ATWZW170 (Thread starter): So why couldn't US have hubs in CLT/PHL/MSP/LAS/PHX/DTW. Just seems like it would be a better hook up.
Gigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16215 posts, RR: 88 Reply 5, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3806 times:
Quoting NWAESC (Reply 3): Forgetting labor for a second, the multiple IT fiascos at US are reason for NWA enough to pass on any kind of link up.
Completely and totally irrelevant in the grand scheme of a multibillion dollar merger, and presumably lessons learned would prevent it from happening again.
Further, NW would likely be the controlling partner there.
Flighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 7441 posts, RR: 2 Reply 6, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3806 times:
Quoting NWAESC (Reply 3): Forgetting labor for a second, the multiple IT fiascos at US are reason for NWA enough to pass on any kind of link up
US's IT "fiascos" had to do with purchasing new equipment and switching it on. Now, it is new and switched on. NW has equipment that is old and switched on. They are both in good shape in the IT department.
The problem with a US-NW linkup is they both lack true front-line hub cities. MSP, DTW, PHL and PHX and CLT are all mid-size cities. PHL has a large population, but many of them are poor unemployed people. So it's not as good a hub city as DFW for example, with an equal population but a much greater economy.
DL has its JFK hub and inroads at LAX and BOS. Plus, ATL is a monster. NW needs these large cities to feed its network. I do not think US has the clout to do that.
ATWZW170 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 904 posts, RR: 3 Reply 8, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3778 times:
If something like this were to happen I don't see how US would be the controlling factor. I see NW calling the shots. I could see Doug Parkers upper VP team in the mix - Scott Kirby and Robert Isom are pretty good guys. I think Parker and Steeland would be good to step down and show all labor groups that its a new day.
Labor could be a problem but if you consider that both of these airlines have had terrible moral for so long combining and making a total change to the work place might rally the troops, bring people together. Of course selling the idea to a very naysayer work groups might be hard....if the right person was charismatic enough they just might be able to bring a hault to all the bickering, the feelings of ill will, and turn both companies around. I think everyone was thrilled when Parker hit the ground, he seemed to talk change....but then things went down hill fast when his promises never came through.
I just don't see why DL/NW would work -- totally different fleets - what a nightmare. And really, the US Airways and NW uniforms are pretty close. I personally would love to see it.
Success is getting what you want...happiness is liking what you get
Steeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 8809 posts, RR: 19 Reply 11, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3768 times:
Quoting MKE22 (Reply 7): I'd say IND gone before MEM
NW is trying to keep the LCCs at bay there I believe. I think they've added a few flights and they even run at a LCC-type approach at IND to compete with WN and FL...
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Mariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 22713 posts, RR: 88 Reply 12, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3761 times:
I think it is a pretty good idea.
It could have worked last year, if Mr. Parker had gone for Northwest instead of Delta. I think he made a miscalculation there, underestimating Mr. Grinstein's determination to bring Delta out of Chapter 11 as a standalone.
I don't think Mr. Steenland will initiate anything - I think he will respond to offers - and so far Mr. Parker has been very quiet in all this.
However, we have some way to go. If Delta chooses Northwest over United, I think Mr. Tilton will go nuclear and no airline will be safe from the fallout.
If Delta chooses United over Northwest, I'd guess the others will be running around like headless chooks looking for dance partners.
And I don't think Mr. Parker will be left out. Just because Delta may make an offer for Northwest doesn't mean that someone else can't make a better offer.
DL767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3717 times:
It could work and would be esasier to gget approved since US is relatively small, and not to mention almost identical fleets
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26700 posts, RR: 83 Reply 16, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3693 times:
STAR needs a strong American domestic partner, and US really isn't it. But if NW and US merged and stayed in SkyTeam, you not only continue to have three SkyTeam members, but they become even more powerful with NW and US tying the knot. UA and DL merging and staying in SkyTeam would, I think, be a non-starter with the United States Department of Justice on anti-trust grounds. Yet if they stay in STAR, I would expect DL would need to give up it's branding and adopt UA's (whether or not UA's management is in control or shown the door in favor of DL's) because UA was a founding member of STAR and they have the name recognition in the alliance.
So DL and NW should merge and then UA should be allowed to finally take over US. UA can scrap TED and use US as their LCC.
You'd have one really strong and one solid SkyTeam member, one very strong STAR alliance member, and one very strong OneWorld one. AA could even buy AS to shore up their West Coast ops (assuming they don't follow past form and dismantle it) if they feel they need a larger presence to successfully compete against DL+CO and UA.
Gigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16215 posts, RR: 88 Reply 17, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3668 times:
Quoting AirCop (Reply 16): You are kidding as I see the 5th and 6th largest cities in the US in that list, I suppose you meant to say something else.
N1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 25852 posts, RR: 79 Reply 18, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3624 times:
Quoting Gigneil (Reply 5):
Further, NW would likely be the controlling partner there.
Not necessarily. It is likely that the very smart M&A folks who made the HP acquisition of US happen would do the same with NW. Remember too that US is in a much stronger position financially than NW and doesn't particularly need a merger partner.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
WorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 19, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3610 times:
US/NW won't work for one simple reason - it would merge the 5th and 6th largest US network airlines and would set off consolidation that would dwarf the merged US/NW. No board in their right mind is going to accept a deal that will be eclipsed by other combinations, esp. when the majority of the value of the deal will be done in stock which will very much reflect market strength.
HPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 3662 posts, RR: 8 Reply 20, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3571 times:
Quoting ATWZW170 (Thread starter): So why couldn't US have hubs in CLT/PHL/MSP/LAS/PHX/DTW. Just seems like it would be a better hook up.
Too many "hubs." I think we would have to redefine "hub" in that situation.
Quoting COERJ145 (Reply 2): I agree that NW/US would be an excellent combination, but with hubs, i'd say PHL would be downsized slightly in favor of DTW(better facilities).
PHL has the O&D over DTW. DTW undoubtedly has better facilities.
With a merger of this magnitude, IND may well go away too.
Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 4): I also think that anyone with the right mind would want to avoid US like the plague due to labor issues as well as the whole IT fiasco last year...
I don't think that was a very big issue overall.
Quoting Gigneil (Reply 5): Further, NW would likely be the controlling partner there.
Doubtful. US is still in a better financial position.
Quoting ATWZW170 (Reply 8): And really, the US Airways and NW uniforms are pretty close. I personally would love to see it.
All US uniforms are changing over the next year anyway.
Quoting Stitch (Reply 17): STAR needs a strong American domestic partner, and US really isn't it.
UA+US is just fine for an American domestic Star network.
Quoting N1120A (Reply 19): Remember too that US is in a much stronger position financially than NW and doesn't particularly need a merger partner.
Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 20): US/NW won't work for one simple reason - it would merge the 5th and 6th largest US network airlines and would set off consolidation that would dwarf the merged US/NW. No board in their right mind is going to accept a deal that will be eclipsed by other combinations, esp. when the majority of the value of the deal will be done in stock which will very much reflect market strength.
If DL and NW have any chance to be approved, then US and NW would be even more likely given US is far smaller than DL.
MCOflyer From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 8553 posts, RR: 14 Reply 21, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3406 times:
Quoting HPRamper (Reply 21):
If DL and NW have any chance to be approved, then US and NW would be even more likely given US is far smaller than DL.
Quoting ATWZW170 (Thread starter):
So why couldn't US have hubs in CLT/PHL/MSP/LAS/PHX/DTW. Just seems like it would be a better hook up.
Too many "hubs." I think we would have to redefine "hub" in that situation.
I agree but for US/NW it would be something like this:
Focus cities: LAS, MSP, SEA, IND
Hubs: DTW, PHL, CLT
Quoting HPRamper (Reply 21):
With a merger of this magnitude, IND may well go away too.
No, they need to keep the LCC's from expanding.
My opinion: I think this set up would work better than DL/NW. The fleets match up and it would look better.
Exhibit 1
NW/US combined fleet
Long range: A332/333, 744, 757, 787, 350
Shout- Medium range: A319/320/321, E190
Planes leaving the fleet: The 733's ,734's, 767's would go as well as the DC9. I do believe NW and US have enough options at Airbus and Embraer to replace the whole entire fleet of DC95 and 737's.
New a/c: Keep both the 350 and 787 as they could replace 744's by using multiple frequencies to cities that warrant 744 and continue to add E190's to replace D93's.
NW Cargo: Convert 744's to BCF and/or buy the 332F. The 742's have to go as they need replacing.
USFlyer MSP From United States of America, joined May 2000, 1787 posts, RR: 0 Reply 22, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3303 times:
Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 22): I agree but for US/NW it would be something like this:
Focus cities: LAS, MSP, SEA, IND
Hubs: DTW, PHL, CLT
Im sorry but that list makes no sense. A global airline on the scale of NW/US is going to have all of its hubs east of Indiana? I dont think so. Thats was the problem with the original US. So It would be more like:
HUBS
PHL
CLT
DTW
MSP
PHX
NRT
FOCUS CITIES
BOS
LGA
DCA
IND
MEM
LAS
LAX
SEA (depending on what they do with the AS relationship)
I dont know why everyone wants to reduce MSP to a focus city in the NW merger scenarios. MSP is NW's #1 O/D city and produces more O/D than PHL, DTW, and CLT despite its lack of competition and high average fares and would produce similar numbers if its average fares were as low as PHX and LAS. In addition, I believe that MEM has a chance to keep its hub because it has very low costs, excellent weather and on-time performance, and virtually no competition. It could be successfully repositioned as more of a competitor to DFW and IAH for south-central US traffic rather than southeast US traffic like ATL and CLT.
I do agree with your fleet rationalization though, except for the 787 and the A350 both being in the fleet plan and the cargo 742s needing to go.
Gigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16215 posts, RR: 88 Reply 23, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3288 times:
The 787 + A350 combo is going to be a winner going forward, just like the A330 + 777 combo once was.
WorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 24, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3467 times:
Quoting HPRamper (Reply 21): If DL and NW have any chance to be approved, then US and NW would be even more likely given US is far smaller than DL.
you miss the point. It is not a question of whether NW/US is too large but whether it is too small. A NW/US merger would cause the other 4 players to merge as well. How it shakes out is not important. Any combination would be larger than NW/US. it makes no sense to look for a partner that will make you the smallest company in the industry - or at least the network carrier segment of it.
25 MKE22: ??? Who has LAX to begin with? Thats UA and DL turf.
26 DeltaL1011man: i agree but i also think for all boeing airlines 787/777 and all airbus airlines A330/A350 i don't know if its Delta turf maybe ExpressJet turf just
27 Gigneil: Sales of the 777 going forward are going to be seriously curtailed by the A350. They are different generations of aircraft. NS
28 JEdward: As a quick aside IAH was #4 with "total population" being used as the metric from the 2000 census. Here are what the top 10 "total population" center
29 N174UA: As screwed up as that would be, that's what I think will happen. We talked about these types of scenarios (generically) in my strategy class. The ind
32 Hjulicher: "But many of them are poor unemployed people"?? Can you please expatiate on this issue? What do you mean by this? Philly metro has around 6 million p
34 DeltaL1011man: i agree but airlines like DL,CO,AA who will most likely never order the A350 will order T7s true and maybe a different airline agreed PHL is a great
35 MKE22: Speaking of ATL and it's growth, has anybody heard anything about the south gate complex or new international terminal?
36 MCOflyer: The 744's need to be converted to F standards and replace the 742's in the cargo fleet. they are getting old and my opinion is that US would get rid
37 Flighty: DFW is a front tier hub. CLT is a city only 1/3 to 1/4 the size of DFW as a city. Although CLT is an admirably large hub. The city itself has limited
38 USFlyer MSP: The 742s are younger than most of the aircraft of competing cargo carriers many of which still operate 741s and DC-10's plus its cargo so the age of
39 N174UA: In any reputable graduate school of business, it's an offered elective. Strategy is about learning how the industry is structured, who the players ar
40 RwSEA: DL is not a major player, despite their recent (and quickly retreating) expansion. UA and AA are the major players. All of which means absolutely not
41 Hjulicher: how is ATL more of city than PHL? In fact, Atlanta has only grown but it hasn't become any more of world city. Philly is definitely a more industriou
42 PavlovsDog: The people at the census bureau disagree with you. The latest metropolitan population estimates (2006) have. Philadelphia 5,826,742 2.5% growth over
43 Flighty: Who is talking about Detroit? I was talking about Dallas. Dallas, Texas. DFW. You're into something else. Philly is no more a world city than Atlanta
44 PavlovsDog: Don't I feel stupid. Somehow I read it DTW instead of DFW.
45 Jmc1975: I've heard nothing but bad about Streenland. But as for Doug Parker stepping down, that would be a mistake as he is the executive that needs to stay
46 NWAESC: Labor integration is huge (as is fleet commonality), which is why I said to "forget" it for a second. Irrelevant? Maybe. Maybe not. How many customer
47 Bobnwa: The numbers I see do not show this. See above remoark.
48 JEdward: I am not implying that is the case. Please go back and review the posts I was responding to. I'm not trying to postulate a correlation between market
49 Stitch: The problem is that five years from now, airlines flying new A330s are going to be at a material disadvantage against airlines flying new 787s. And t
50 Gigneil: The 747-200s are more than fine for foreseeable future. Atlanta is, in fact, a world city. Again, I reiterate that nobody cares about the technicalit
51 Byrdluvs747: What criteria are we using to define the label "World City"? I rarely see ATL mentioned in the same breath as NYC, CHI, LAX, SFO, IAD or even MIA.
52 Scoobyd75: I don't think US would like those DC9's. Not in their fleet plans
53 Vega: You seem to be inventing as you go along. PHL O&D = JFK PHL O&D is 2x Greater than MIA PHL O&D is near 2x Greater than IAD (another example) PHL O&D
54 NW748i: According to what metric? Not necessarily. It might make them WANT to merge, but DOJ could easily say, "Look! One less airline! Consolisation is now
55 Gigneil: Being smaller than AA is not a problem. Being significantly smaller is. I would expect to see AA snap up AS, not CO. CO will almost certainly merge wi
56 MCOflyer: I have to ask what could go wrong if NW and US merged? Could someone from both airlines provide a senority scale on how it would match up. Hunter
57 PHXmd80: In a US/NW marriage, PHX is arguably the most important hub, as it is the only hub on the West Coast. LAS is slowly being downgraded, as US no longer
58 Gigneil: What? No way. Detroit and Philadelphia are both MUCH more important. Phoenix is a great city in the shadow of Los Angeles, and neither PHX or LAX are
59 Flighty: PHX is the smallest hub of the ones you mention (CLT, PHL, MSP, DTW). To me that means it is the least important. CLT for example is a far bigger hub
60 Byrdluvs747: I see AA coming from way out in left field to make a play for UA or NW, I just can't see them sitting on the sidelines while DL/NW & CO/UA become sup
61 Gigneil: Well, I certainly do, and operating the largest single airline hub in existence seems to support it. NS
62 PHXmd80: Like I said, PHX is ARGUABLY the most important. My argument is that without PHX you have no hub west of the mississippi river (MSP doesn't count as
63 ProPHX: If PHX weren't well situated as a hub to anywhere but Southern California, then why do US and WN use PHX as a hub? And I don't need to defend LAX; it
64 Gigneil: Um, both US and WN use it as a hub to Southern California as well as other low-fare markets in the Southwest. And the VAST majority of traffic at LAX
65 N174UA: The U.S. Dept. of Justice would say that idea is way out in left field, and QUICKLY REJECT IT....on anti-trust grounds. DL/NW or UA/CO would be appro
66 D328: I do not see AA really caring about merging with anyone, just taking out some competition. I just see them buying up an airline taking what they want
67 HPRamper: I think lack of competition actually has a lot to do with it. Any combinations of the big 6 will result in mega-airlines. Smallest doesn't really mea
68 Mah584jr: There's a reason why Atlanta was chosen as the host of the 1996 Summer Olympics. The metropolitan area in PHL is full of wealthy families like most o
69 Silentbob: NW/US fills gaps and are fairly complimentary, much like the US/HP merger. To me, this combo makes the most sense in the industry. As long as the new
70 Intermodal64: You would have the angriest, most volatile work force in the industry. They could call the merged airline Eastern! Slogan: You'll think you never left
71 Gigneil: Philadelphia is not presently a world city, no. However, Philadelphia is the 4th largest metro in the US, represents a lot of the largest companies i
72 Flighty: NW would like to have CLT very very much. And the US Shuttle and DCA mini-hub. About PHL, I give up already. PHL is a very big city with many rich pe
73 Byrdluvs747: That's the standard answer everyone quotes when the subject of a AA-UA merger comes up. This is why I said AA will have to come out from left field i
74 WingnutMN: There is no way that this would work. You have arguably the two oldest pilot groups (NW and US east) that would kill each other over seniority. Throw
75 MSYPI7185: US/NW would work very well IMO. Actually I would prefer this combination over any-other. My guess is if DL tries to merge with NW, US will make a coun
76 Bobnwa: Since the US offer would have to primarily be a stock swap, US could not afford it as their stock has taken a dramatic downturn since the DL offer. T
77 WingnutMN: Like NWABOB said, how do expect US to make an offer for NW? They just don't have the finances for it! Why does every thread that involves NW and merge
78 Silentbob: Pilots should be lobbying to make their seniority "portable" in every new contract that they negotiate. That would potentially allow disgruntled empl
79 Flighty: I believe the NW CFO and many of his guys came from US, as well.
80 Bobnwa: The NWA CFO started at NWA went to US and is now back at NWA.
81 MSYPI7185: I not so sure about that. US currently has 3B in cash on-hand, I believe there are other majors with less. Also I and others at PI thought the same a
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