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ExpressJet Loads + Some Market Changes  
User currently offlineKnope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2947 posts, RR: 30
Posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 5003 times:

Now that ExpressJet is doing monthly reporting, we can see more closely what is working and what is working less well. And not coincidentally, most of the ExpressJet routes which are on the chopping block for April are at the bottom of the list.

Onboard loads for ExpressJet branded operations for October 2007

84.2% MCI TUS
79.8% ONT SLC
75.9% SAN FAT
75.6% SMF TUS
75.0% MSY JAX
73.7% SMF ABQ
73.7% MSY BHM
72.7% SMF OKC
72.1% MCI MSY
71.5% SAN MRY
71.0% RDU MSY
69.9% ONT COS
69.5% ONT GEG
69.2% ONT TUS
68.4% ONT ELP
67.3% ONT SAT
67.2% ONT MCI
65.7% ONT ABQ
64.1% SAT MSY
64.0% RDU BHM
63.4% SAT ABQ
62.7% SAN COS
62.4% ONT OKC
62.3% ONT BOI
62.2% SAN OMA
62.2% MCI SDF
61.6% ABQ OKC
61.4% SAN GEG
60.8% MCI JAX
60.4% ONT TUL
60.4% SAT RDU
60.3% AUS MSY
60.1% MCI RDU
59.7% RDU SDF
59.5% SAN OKC
59.5% SMF SAT
58.4% ONT MRY
58.3% SAN TUL
57.8% ONT AUS
56.2% SMF COS
54.4% ONT OMA
54.2% SAN BOI
54.1% AUS ABQ
53.7% SMF BFL
53.7% AUS TUS
51.9% SAT TUS
51.4% SMF TUL
50.1% ONT FAT
49.1% ABQ TUL
46.5% AUS JAX
46.5% RDU JAX
46.3% SAN BFL
44.2% SAT OKC
40.9% AUS MCI
39.7% ELP TUS
38.5% AUS OKC
37.0% SMF GEG
29.4% SAT TUL
27.0% AUS TUL

Starting in early April, these markets appear gone:
AUS-MCI
AUS-TUL
AUS-OKC
SAT-TUL
SAT-OKC
ELP-TUS
RDU-JAX
RDU-BHM

It doesn't appear the full slate of April changes are loaded, as (for example) ELP-ONT is down to 1x/day, with the aircraft arriving ELP at 4:20pm and leaving at 11:20am the next day. But the drops seem consistent with some of the weakest market (except for RDU-BHM, though BHM is a one-destination station and RDU is again seeing cuts).

On the flip side, it's good to see lots of markets with solid loads, and far fewer with sub-50% loads. Seems the shift west will and probably should continue. Remember, of course, that load information like this only tells half the story on potential profitability, and says nothing about yield.

Finally, I thought it would be interesting to see how the at-risk Delta Connection flying was doing for ExpressJet. These are routes they are flying as DL*, but unlike most other regional flying where the major buys capacity for a set fee (meaning the regional generally males a stable income no matter how empty or full planes are) ExpressJet makes or loses money based on the loads and fares. And when ExpressJet posts monthly traffic stats for "branded" operations, it is the XE ExpressJet flying plus the DL* Delta Connection operation. Here's how the DL* at-risk flying did in October:

75.2% LAX GEG
72.5% LAX LAS
70.6% LAX SFO
68.7% LAX SMF
65.7% LAX RNO
63.9% LAX OAK
62.8% LAX PHX
62.8% LAX PDX
58.7% LAX EUG
55.2% LAX SJC
54.6% LAX SEA
53.0% LAX DEN
49.6% LAX OKC
44.1% LAX BOI
33.0% LAX ICT
32.6% LAX MFE

37 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineNkops From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2673 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4983 times:

Looks like they are axing 6 out of the 7 bottom flights there, but I wonder why they are keeping GEG-SMF??


I have no association with Spirit Airlines
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25741 posts, RR: 50
Reply 2, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4957 times:

Thanks for the updates.

According to their monthly traffic stats however it appears loads have plateaued with performance last 3 months on the flat side. Obviously with $90 fuel revenues falls far short to cover cost.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineWhatUsaid From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 667 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4904 times:

Something else to keep in mind, the October numbers were prior to adding LGB and the restructuring of a number of markets to 1X per day. The November load factor for LGB was 48%.

At FAT, XE's overall load factor declined in November a couple of points - my guess, FAT-LGB is performing no better than FAT-ONT did.

Marketing remains an issue. Yes, they're running some print ads, but they're not effectively communicating their fare structure and unless you've 20/20 vision, it's hard to tell where they fly to in their ads. Expressjet is not a household name.

And, I'd suggest they're trying to do too much with too few aircraft.

But, it's a great product.

[Edited 2008-01-21 16:42:40]

User currently offlineKcrwFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2004, 3829 posts, RR: 7
Reply 4, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4897 times:

It looks like Expressjet is getting it together.

User currently offlineGoBoeing From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 2706 posts, RR: 15
Reply 5, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4897 times:

Were the at-risk Delta flights you posted also for October?

(LAX-MFE is no longer flown)


User currently offlineAWACSooner From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 1932 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4862 times:

It's not a big surprise that ExpressJet has cut OKC out of SAT and AUS. After all, when you keep changing the schedule so many times and settle on MID-DAY r/t's between the cities, it's no wonder that they're having trouble filling the plane. I fly SAT-OKC r/t religiously and their schedule when they started the route was PERFECT! The loads were always near full on the evening departures I flew each week. Now I'm forced to alternate between WN, AA and CO...and I see the same faces on those flights that I used to see on XE. And all of us have the same complaint: XE had a good thing going and then they ruined it when they started changing the schedules.

Oh well...I guess they should just stick to their regional contracts. If it wasn't for that, they'd have been long gone ages ago!




Btw...six year lurker, first time poster.


User currently offlineKnope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2947 posts, RR: 30
Reply 7, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4820 times:



Quoting GoBoeing (Reply 5):
Were the at-risk Delta flights you posted also for October?

(LAX-MFE is no longer flown)

Yup, those are also from October.


User currently offlineSocalatc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 528 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 4777 times:

Didnt XE fly LAX-YVR for DL? I dont see that in the schedule anymore. Did they Axe that?

User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25741 posts, RR: 50
Reply 9, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 4714 times:



Quoting Socalatc (Reply 8):
Did they Axe that?

Yup along with SAN, TIJ, PSP, OKC and previously mentioned MFE off the top of my head.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6775 posts, RR: 17
Reply 10, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 4601 times:



Quoting Knope2001 (Thread starter):
Starting in early April, these markets appear gone:
AUS-MCI
AUS-TUL
AUS-OKC
SAT-TUL
SAT-OKC
ELP-TUS
RDU-JAX
RDU-BHM

At this point, they really should just close all their markets east of the Mississippi and call it a day.. there really is no need for them to keep them open for 2 or 3 daily flights each.. I mean, really..



Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5462 posts, RR: 12
Reply 11, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 4580 times:



Quoting Knope2001 (Thread starter):
79.8% ONT SLC

A typo but instead of my trying to figure out what this city pair should be, I thought it faster just to ask...


Back to looking over the figures again. BTW, again, thanx for all the effort Knope.

bb


User currently offlineRedTailDTW From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 755 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 4565 times:

Most of ExpressJet's flights out of TUS have been doing good. I wonder if they plan on adding some more cities. One problem though is that TUS is soon gonna have some gate space problems. I wonder what TUS is going to do about that if flight continue to increase.


Mason



Northwest Airlines. Now you're flying smart! (RIP 1926-2009)
User currently offlineMtnWest1979 From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 2473 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 4533 times:
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Quoting SANFan (Reply 11):


Quoting Knope2001 (Thread starter):
79.8% ONT SLC

A typo but instead of my trying to figure out what this city pair should be, I thought it faster just to ask...

Guessing ONT-SMF.



"If it ain't broke, don't fix it!"
User currently offlineJoeljack From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 939 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 4516 times:

I know this has probably been asked before, but does anybody know how much fuel costs on an expressjet flight that is, lets say 50% full and flying 500 miles? or on a per mile basis?

User currently offlineKnope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2947 posts, RR: 30
Reply 15, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 4506 times:



Quoting SANFan (Reply 11):
Quoting Knope2001 (Thread starter):
79.8% ONT SLC

A typo but instead of my trying to figure out what this city pair should be, I thought it faster just to ask...

I meant to delete that but missed it.

They did fly ONT-SLC, but as Delta Connection as part of the capacity-purchase DL* program. It's neither ExpressJet brand, nor at-risk DL* flying. Sorry!


User currently offlineMSYguy From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 113 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 4444 times:



Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 10):
At this point, they really should just close all their markets east of the Mississippi and call it a day.. there really is no need for them to keep them open for 2 or 3 daily flights each.. I mean, really..

C'mon now, MSY is east of the Mississippi and has four of the top eleven routes. Glad to see Xjet getting its feet underneath it on the branded ops. Is the overarching message to be gleaned from the load data that Xjet is doing best on medium-haul routes on which it faces no competition? That's my hasty take from a quick review of what is doing well and what is not.


User currently offlinePanAm747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4242 posts, RR: 8
Reply 17, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 4373 times:



Quote:
SMF-BFL 53.7%
SAN-BFL 46.3%

OUCH!!

I knew SAN-BFL would be too good to last...the schedule really doesn't allow a business trip. However, the SAN-BFL flight does keep the plane from sitting idle, so maybe it'll stay.

I'm saddened to see the BFL-SMF flight not doing well - the city council lobbied very hard for that one, and the XJet employees there tell me that many people do a same-day business trip on this one.

Poor BFL - can they ever keep a flight?



Pan Am:The World's Most Experienced Airline - P(oor) S(ailor's) A(irline): San Diego's Hometown Airline-Catch Our Smile!
User currently offlineJoeljack From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 939 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (6 years 9 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 4324 times:



Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 17):
I knew SAN-BFL would be too good to last...the schedule really doesn't allow a business trip. However, the SAN-BFL flight does keep the plane from sitting idle, so maybe it'll stay.

I'm saddened to see the BFL-SMF flight not doing well - the city council lobbied very hard for that one, and the XJet employees there tell me that many people do a same-day business trip on this one.

Poor BFL - can they ever keep a flight?

1st-Maybe these loads could be increased if they would allow connecting flights. If you go onto Orbitz, they will let you book connections from the east to cities like BFL through ONT and SAN so why won't xjet.com let you? They are eliminating free revenue by not allowing this. Poor management.

2nd-they don't allow their flights to be paired with other airlines. For example, if OMA-ONT is full on sunday and empty when you return the following tuesday, search engines like orbitz don't allow a combination of airlines with expressjet. You can't book a ticket on, say united on the way out and expressjet on the way back. This also limits their load by a couple percentage points.

If they allowed these two things, my guess they could increase their loads by as much as 5% in certain markets. Every little bit helps!


User currently offlineOuboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4605 posts, RR: 23
Reply 19, posted (6 years 9 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 4039 times:

Comparing the performance of Tulsa to OKC...they really need to shut Tulsa down and shift those passengers to OKC. I never really liked airlines offering identical services are both airports.

Really would like to see them grow OKC a bit more to like RNO, COS, or MSY.


User currently offlineMOBflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1209 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (6 years 9 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 3886 times:



Quoting Knope2001 (Thread starter):
RDU-BHM

That's quite unfortunate. They had respectable and increasing loads on that flight, considering that they were not operated on behalf of Delta and all.

I've got a question though: if ExpressJet can enter 'at-risk' markets as Delta Connection, how come they just didn't do that and take advantage of the frequent flier program and brand awareness? Are affiliation costs that high?


User currently offlineRJNUT From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 1235 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (6 years 9 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 3806 times:



Quoting MOBflyer (Reply 20):
I've got a question though: if ExpressJet can enter 'at-risk' markets as Delta Connection, how come they just didn't do that and take advantage of the frequent flier program and brand awareness? Are affiliation costs that high?

I have wondered that myself...maybe brings TOO much attention to the market??!! i would think it would help them more, with all the station infrastructure and GDS distribution already in place...

Any code , at risk , for that matter, would be better than simply XE,but there must be more to it than that!


User currently offlineKnope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2947 posts, RR: 30
Reply 22, posted (6 years 9 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 3792 times:



Quoting MOBflyer (Reply 20):
I've got a question though: if ExpressJet can enter 'at-risk' markets as Delta Connection, how come they just didn't do that and take advantage of the frequent flier program and brand awareness? Are affiliation costs that high?

Several possible reasons:

(a) There are extra costs to the code-share, costs I've seen described as several dollars per ticket. Flying as their own brand saves these costs.

(b) Key in the ExpressJet strategy was to be the only nonstop airline in a market and not need the advantage of a big airline brand.

(c) When ExpressJet conceived the idea of starting their own point-to-point RJ airline (many, many, many months prior to them actually doing so) the phenomenon of code-share at-risk flying for a big airline was rare. Now it's more common.

(d) The big airline (Delta) is likely to impose all sorts of constraints, controls, and limits on where the at-risk code share flying can happen. ExpressJet probably wanted to avoid this.


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17659 posts, RR: 46
Reply 23, posted (6 years 9 months 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 3780 times:

We still don't know what kind of fares they're getting; I still think they're in a world of hurt.

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 9):
Yup along with SAN, TIJ, PSP, OKC and previously mentioned MFE off the top of my head.

LAXTIJ's LF for the first month of operation wzas 7% (as in seven). The second month of operation it was up by about half to 11% (eleven Silly).



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineSlider From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6858 posts, RR: 34
Reply 24, posted (6 years 9 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 3345 times:



Quoting KcrwFlyer (Reply 4):
It looks like Expressjet is getting it together.

The financials thus far would not concur.


25 Modesto2 : What a shame. Actually, PSP was not operated by ExpressJet but instead, ASA.
26 Icebird757 : What about the loads for LGB?
27 Laxintl : As mentioned in reply#3, LGB LF was merely 48%.
28 ASMD11 : GEG-SMF is pretty seasonal. The LF is looking better for NOV and DEC with only 2 daily flights instead of three, but winter traffic on that route for
29 SANFan : Just a couple of SAN observations. Both of these routes saw competition from QX (1x daily); just last week, that competition went away on the BOI rout
30 Post contains links FATFlyer : According to the latest report, the December load factor for XJet at LGB was also 48%. http://www.longbeach.gov/civica/filebank/blobdload.asp?BlobID=
31 Joeljack : Expressjet is REALLY hurting themselves bad right now without being able to book a flight for the summer yet. Families are making summer vacation plan
32 LAXintl : I dont think XJT has much of a clue of what it might or might not operate in June yet, and hence does not want to risk selling flights. Actually this
33 FATFlyer : Also given the volatility of fuel costs airlines are just now making route choices. Allegiant which is strictly a vacation airline is not accepting re
34 Alias1024 : QX matched XE on the routes to BOI and GEG to send a message. They want ExpressJet out of their sandbox. As the losses have mounted for XE, it has be
35 Joeljack : Allegiant also loses business this way. Personal example: their is a group of 22 of us going to LAS the weekend of Sept 19th-22nd. Most all of us are
36 FATFlyer : While you can look at it as lost revenue an airline missed, the airline(s) do not know what the actual cost of the flight will be in Sept. So they don
37 Joeljack : I agree with you 100%. With ExpressJet you can't book past the first week in May though. This is starting to trim into the main booking window. I wou
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