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Will F9 Make It Through 2008?  
User currently offlineBP1 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 593 posts, RR: 1
Posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 7551 times:

The topic says it all.

Will we see WN buy F9 for gate access and sell off the A-320's to Jet Blue, USAirways and eos (for domestic service)?

Will we see UA just come right in and finish them off?

Will we see Jet Blue or USAirways purchase them for the planes and sell off the gates to WN?

Cheers,
BP1


"First To Fly The A-380" / 26 October 2007 SYD-SIN Inaugural
68 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineIloveboeing From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 796 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 7524 times:

Not sure. The competition in DEN has really heated up. F9's stock is down to $3.03 and their market cap is only $111.02 million.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FRNT

That makes them an easy acquisition target. WN may be interested in acquiring them so they can expand in DEN. They could keep the A318/A319/A320s until they get more 73Gs.

I don't think UA will try to acquire them because they would like to merge with either DL or CO. But B6 or US may be interested because of common fleet types. I don't know about US since their labor relations aren't good right now.


User currently offlineEvilForce From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 7496 times:

JetBlue doesn't need the jets, as they have delayed their own Airbus deliveries. If JetBlue bought F9 they would merge them and operate the Denver hub.

User currently offlineSafetyDemo From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 310 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 7495 times:

I don't think F9 offers anything beneficial to USAirways. PHX and LAS cover the west-coast fairly significantly. And F9s small DEN presence in comparison would be a waste of USAirways money.


Please direct your attention to the flight attendants in the cabin...
User currently offlineBP1 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 593 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7372 times:

F9 has some Airbus aircraft that US could use to add frequencies or for the soon to be announced SJC-PHL/CLT service and in speeding up the retirements of the 737 fleet. The Denver gates could be sold to the vultures at Southwest Airlines.

Cheers,
BP1



"First To Fly The A-380" / 26 October 2007 SYD-SIN Inaugural
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25409 posts, RR: 86
Reply 5, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7316 times:
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Quoting BP1 (Thread starter):
The topic says it all.

Neither the topic - nor your OP - say why you are painting this scenario. This is now the fourth thread discussing this matter in about three weeks.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offline4everRC From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 325 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7288 times:



Quoting Mariner (Reply 5):
Neither the topic - nor your OP - say why you are painting this scenario.

I agree with Mariner - can you explain why you are of the opinion that F9 is going to fail? If one bad quarter is an indication that an airline will go belly up, there would be no one flying in the USA.



Nobody served our republic like Republic!
User currently offlineTripleboom From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 278 posts, RR: 13
Reply 7, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7264 times:



Quoting Mariner (Reply 5):
Neither the topic - nor your OP - say why you are painting this scenario. This is now the fourth thread discussing this matter in about three weeks.

Kind of gets tiresome hearing the gloom and doom all of the time. It's been pointed out before that FRNT didn't go soaring when it recorded fantastic Q2 profit despite huge L4 start up and fuel related expenses. Yet when the typically industry-wide down Q3 comes rolling in everyone forgets the previous quarter and the sell-off begins closely accompanied by merger, buyout and bankruptcy talk.

Frankly, I am tired of it and can hardly wait for 6 months down the road when F9 is profitable again, Lynx is hailed as a success, and the media and a.net posters alike finally join hands and sing the praises of Frontier and all the hard work put in by its employees to make it the success it has become.

Whoops.. Sorry about that. I dozed off. And I had the most fantastic dream!


User currently offline4everRC From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 325 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7231 times:



Quoting Tripleboom (Reply 7):
the media and a.net posters alike finally join hands and sing the praises of Frontier and all the hard work put in by its employees to make it the success it has become.

Kumbayah, my Lord, Kumbayah... EVERYONE JOIN IN!



Nobody served our republic like Republic!
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25409 posts, RR: 86
Reply 9, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7223 times:
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To put it in perspective, United has just reported a loss for the past quarter - and is cutting back at DEN:

http://www.denverpost.com/headlines/ci_8049537

Despite the loss, United was profitable for the year - but it is their first profitable year since 2000.

So - using the logic of some a.netters - will United make it through 2008?

mariner

[Edited 2008-01-23 10:13:18]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlineFlagshipAZ From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3419 posts, RR: 14
Reply 10, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7209 times:

Being a former employee of F9, and still staying in touch on the company...I seriously doubt
Frontier is going away anytime soon. Denver has strong ties & a good public relationship with
F9, and it more than likely that Denver will stand behind F9 in any situation.
Any rumors of Frontier's early demise is greatly exaggerated. Just someone trying to start
false rumors to stir up more buy-out & mergers scenarios.
Nope, Frontier is here to stay, and will probably outlast others, much older carriers.
Regards.



"Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy." --Ben Franklin
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25737 posts, RR: 50
Reply 11, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7186 times:

While I dont see how Frontier could 'fail' in 2008 unless we experience somesort of calamity, the impression which I also share to a degree is that F9 is a weaker industry player and remains quite exposed events which might effect it negatively -- mergers, nasty DEN battles, US economic picture, fuel cost etc..

F9's management surely is quite aware of such and Mr. Menke seems to have not wasted any time trying to make changes to better the position the company for the future in his view.

As much as some F9 diehards might not want to hear this however - I do see the airline very much as an eventual takeover candidate.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25409 posts, RR: 86
Reply 12, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 7108 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
As much as some F9 diehards might not want to hear this however - I do see the airline very much as an eventual takeover candidate.

Why would this "Frontier diehard" not want to hear it? As a shareholder, I would do well out of any takeover.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25737 posts, RR: 50
Reply 13, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 7032 times:

I'm sure you would. You'd just have to find a new company to blog about in the mean time. Big grin

What I meant more with the statement is they F9 has lots of friends that would be very much saddened to see it disappear as a result of a merger/take over



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineRichierich From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 4275 posts, RR: 6
Reply 14, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 7008 times:



Quoting Mariner (Reply 9):
So - using the logic of some a.netters - will United make it through 2008?

With all of the doom-and-gloom and merger-mania, the real question is 'Will any US airline make it through 2008 (in their current state or form)?' The answer is, of course, yes, at least most of them. Figuring out which ones won't is the trick!



None shall pass!!!!
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25409 posts, RR: 86
Reply 15, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 6981 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 13):
You'd just have to find a new company to blog about in the mean time.

It wouldn't happen. I have always been much more interested in struggle than success.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 13):
What I meant more with the statement is they F9 has lots of friends that would be very much saddened to see it disappear as a result of a merger/take over

I would be sad, too. But if I wrote Frontier's epitaph for every time they have confronted problems, I'd have a bottom drawer full of epitaphs.

But I get a lot of laughs out of it, too. This present "doom" scenario for Frontier summons up a vision in this old movie maker's mind:

CUT TO:

The Denver Jungle. Southwest CEO Kelly, naked but for a loin cloth, is swinging through trees on rope vines, uttering blood-curdling cries:

Kelly: "Me Tarzan! DEN hamburger!"  Smile

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlinePavlovsDog From Norway, joined Sep 2005, 658 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 6928 times:

I fear Frontier is worth more dead than alive.

Their cash holding is greater than their market cap and the value of their fleet is quite a bit greater than their debt. Add to that a freequent flier program worth a few million and you have the perfect recipe for a private-equity fund to come in and liquidate.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25409 posts, RR: 86
Reply 17, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 6905 times:
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Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 16):
Add to that a freequent flier program worth a few million and you have the perfect recipe for a private-equity fund to come in and liquidate.

Or Frontier management could take the company private.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineDIA From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3273 posts, RR: 27
Reply 18, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 6694 times:

I have not kept up with all the latest F9 discussions...so I add this as a simple statement...

I was up at DIA a few days in a row last week and saw F9 Airbuses just sitting around the (CO) hanger. I didn't think much of it until I noticed these same planes were there everyday I was there...during the daytime. I couldn't help but think it is never agood sign when an airline is having a portion of their fleet parked.

Again, I'm just coming into the discussions here...just put me in the "know." Is the parking of these a/c for a current minor restructure...or are they already getting some a/c ready to leave the fleet. If none of the above, then what's going on?



Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25409 posts, RR: 86
Reply 19, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6629 times:
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Quoting DIA (Reply 18):
Is the parking of these a/c for a current minor restructure...or are they already getting some a/c ready to leave the fleet.

You got it. Like several airlines, Frontier is planning to reduce the A319 fleet a little, while bringing new A320's into the fleet.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineTripleboom From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 278 posts, RR: 13
Reply 20, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6593 times:



Quoting DIA (Reply 18):



Quoting Mariner (Reply 19):

I'm sure a part of it is the annual C-checks as well.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25409 posts, RR: 86
Reply 21, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6543 times:
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Quoting Tripleboom (Reply 20):
I'm sure a part of it is the annual C-checks as well.

Yep, that will save a bundle.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineCaspian27 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 382 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 6175 times:



Quoting DIA (Reply 18):
I was up at DIA a few days in a row last week and saw F9 Airbuses just sitting around the (CO) hanger. I didn't think much of it until I noticed these same planes were there everyday I was there...during the daytime. I couldn't help but think it is never agood sign when an airline is having a portion of their fleet parked.

Airplanes parked at a hangar means nothing! Every time I drive to work at ORD no matter what time of day or night there are ALWAYS at least 3-4 747's and usually a couple of 777's parked outside the UA hangars. We know that UA is cutting their domestic ops, but these are international birds!

This must be a sign of imminent failure...



Meanwhile, somewhere 35,000 ft above your head...
User currently offlineMke717spotter From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 2458 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 5235 times:

Will F9 Make It Through 2008? No, YX will buy them out, use F9's Airbus to replace their MD-80s, open up DEN as their third hub/focus city, and then some times down the road NW will buy out YX and take the 717s and Airbus alltogether.  Silly


Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13251 posts, RR: 100
Reply 24, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 5086 times:
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Quoting Mariner (Reply 9):

So - using the logic of some a.netters - will United make it through 2008?

 rotfl  Its scary the results we're seeing. It look like we are in 'the "R" word.'

Frontier has a new challenge.

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 23):
and then some times down the road NW will buy out YX and take the 717s and Airbus alltogether.

You have it backwards! YX will buy out NW!  Wink  duck 

What would a.net be without threads like this? Let's see... Good RPM's... Maybe a bit too much of an increase in capacity. Oops. Not a bad mistake in my opinion.  Wink Yes, high priced oil is killing the airlines. But I think F9 will adapt. A319's for A320's is a good start.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
25 B757capt : Interesting on how no one has discussed the possibility of UA purchasing F9
26 Flyingcat : Be carefull what you wish for. F9 going private would put them under even more pressure to perform. Private funds demand results in a very short time
27 Mariner : I'm not wishing for it. But if someone presents me with a doomsday liquidation scenario, I will always point out that Frontier has many options. As t
28 Indy : This is where a basketball type trade could be entertaining. Would this be a trade that helps a couple of teams? Have WN and another municipality come
29 NASCARAirforce : I hope not, Frontier is one of the few interesting airlines to spot at the airports with their cool tail pictures - A lot more interesting to look at
30 AirFrnt : The standard the the US government uses for evalutating mergers (competition decreases at city pairs) would prohibit this from occuring. Frontier is
31 Jetdeltamsy : I think F9 is ripe for a buyout. But the form of the buyout is still a mystery to me. The theory i tend to like the best is the Southwest buyout. They
32 OzarkD9S : Agreed. There is so much M&A talk flying around right now I think 2008 will be a year of major rearranging in the industry. One mega-deal in the US a
33 PavlovsDog : I'm not wishing for it either. It doesn't take a financial genius to take a glance at their balance sheet contra their market cap and salivate. Buyin
34 DIA : First of all, your mockery of my statement is out of line. I was asking for guidance...and loosely asking what it could mean. Mariner and Tripleboom
35 Sldispatcher : As I recall, I haven't seen anything from F9 putting the carrier on the auction block nor have I seen anyone going shopping for them as a whole or in
36 Alphascan : Who buys? The entire domestic industry is putting the brakes on growth so the aircraft aren't attractive right now. The hub and gates in DEN? Yeah, t
37 AirFrnt : F('s business model is dependent on DEN. It allows them to have fairly short trip times to every part of the nation, and is ideally located. F9's Lat
38 Mariner : Clearly, you mean United or Frontier. Mike Boyd said from the git-go that Southwest put a target on Frontier's back. It hasn't worked so far, but if
39 AirFrnt : Yep. Why did Southwest stop Frontier from getting the two gates on C and take them for themselves? If Mr. Kelly intends to acquire Frontier, he'd get
40 Post contains images EvilForce : Last night I had to book a trip to Denver. I could have flown NW, F9, or UA direct for the same $$$. I went ahead and chose F9 because of this thread.
41 Mariner : But that still doesn't answer the question. As of mid-October 2007, Frontier's market cap was still chump change, and the pss was in the 4's. As of m
42 Indy : If WN is building up chances are F9 will start losing part of their customer base anyway. If their financial situation doesn't improve and they get b
43 Mariner : That may be the worst (airline) idea I think I have ever heard. If you are so determined that Frontier must cut and run, for whatever reason, from it
44 Indy : Sticking it out in Denver with UA's massive hub and WN's buildup and slowly going down with the ship because of pride/ego is the worst idea I've ever
45 ATCtower : Absolutly will not happen. UA has shown through previous actions, they are expanding to benefit themselves, not to slice the throat of F9. If it were
46 Mariner : It it were to do with pride/ego, then I would agree with you. But it isn't about pride/ego. mariner
47 Indy : If it isn't about pride or ego then it is about not being able to see the writing on the wall. The level of service at DEN isn't sustainable. At leas
48 Mariner : That is your interpretation. It surely isn't mine. I have - more than somewhat to my own surprise - maintained my strong interest in Frontier since m
49 Indy : That would be like me with NW if they merge with DL. If F9 were to have to make the tough decision of moving what would be your top 3 relocation airp
50 Alphascan : I'm pretty confident at this point in time it is do or die in DEN. The intangible assets alone would cost tens of millions and take years to duplicat
51 Indy : Shareholders will likely have other ideas.
52 EvilForce : I did read that United is planning on shrinking their domestic flying by 3.5% to 4.5% across the system, and almost 5.0% at ORD. Even if UA is "only"
53 MSYtristar : Even if NW eventually closes the MEM hub by way of merger or otherwise, I don't think it'd be a great move for F9. MEM is a pretty small market which
54 Alphascan : Hahaha. A topic for a whole different thread. (Pardon the pun.) State and local politicians and government types in Colorado are beginning to appear
55 EvilForce : They are not moving their hub to Memphis. Good grief. F9 has spent a decade building a corp of frequent travelers all over the western US. Cutting an
56 Indy : However it is heavily carved up. DEN has probably the worst ratio of total pax served to local population. They handle 20 pax per capita which is hor
57 EvilForce : There is also a corp of business and frequent travelers that would rather drive 1,000 miles via auto than take WN. I detest that airline, and will do
58 Indy : This is where ego plagues the industry. Its this mentality that its better to go under than to make the difficult decision of cutting back or moving.
59 MSYtristar : Maybe if F9 acquired 40 or 50 more RJ's, then it would make more sense from a load factor standpoint. I mean NW's operations there are dominated by R
60 Indy : MEM was kind of an example because I can't think of any other airports off the top of my head that would have the space available and a bit of geograp
61 EvilForce : Your "solution" relies on Memphis being vacated by NW, which is predicated that they are bought by DL or someone else, and close their hub. That's a
62 Mariner : It's your theory, you're doing the running. I do not believe they should leave DEN, and I've given you a lot of clues as to why. There are many more
63 EvilForce : Yup. Not only that but if F9 moved to Memphis or anywhere else, what happens when WN moves there a few months or year later? I hear Billings or Roche
64 Indy : The thing that matters is profit and that is what drives what the stock market thinks. Airlines come and go. I'd rather F9 not be the one to go. I ca
65 Mariner : Yes. When have I argued otherwise? mariner
66 F9Animal : F9 is going to survive. Yes they will make it through 2008. Any other questions?
67 Frontierflyer : UA and F9 should bury the hatchet. DEN was a very profitable asset for UA, now its become a huge liability. I think we can all agree here that UA woul
68 KingCavalier : Sean Menke was asked today if Southwest was still having a negative impact on his airline. This is what he said - "There was a lot of fanfare in the m
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