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A380 All Y In What Markets?  
User currently offlineORDagent From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 823 posts, RR: 1
Posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 5703 times:

The A380 was certified for a all Y configuration of over 800 seats. In what markets would that kind of seating be justified? The only one that I can think of would be for Haj charters to Saudi Arabia.

Any other ideas?

32 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFuturecaptain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 5634 times:

Since having so many people on the plane would cut the range down so dramatically I assume Airbus was targeting the replacement of the 747D's in Japan and maybe some other short haul Asian routes. But it seems like JAL and ANA are replacing the 747D's with 777's so AFAIK no operator of the A380 will have nearly that many seats in the plane.

User currently offlineVincewy From Taiwan, joined Oct 2005, 767 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 5594 times:

Didn't I hear that A380 isn't designed for short hauls, if ANA gets it, it(they) will be used only for long haul or at most regional flights.

User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13114 posts, RR: 100
Reply 3, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5521 times:
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At the maximum structural payload the A380 has a 6500nm range folks! That could still be some trans-Pacific and would cover most trans-Atlantic:

See page 64 for the Trent 900, 65 for the GP7200
http://www.content.airbusworld.com/S...a/docs/AC/DATA_CONSULT/AC_A380.pdf

So why are you talking such short hop routes? We're easily talking SIN-SYD, DXB-STN, ICN-SYD, ICN-LAX/SFO. Where do I stop? Ok, DXB-SYD/MEL is out, but most routes could be handled.

So if we have a mega LCC carrier, they'll be able to operate an amazing number of routes!

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineYOWza From Nepal, joined Jul 2005, 4887 posts, RR: 15
Reply 4, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5497 times:

The sheer density of flights on some city pairs would be a good place to start. But one would need to take into account the viability of filling a 100% Y 380 on these pairs.

New York - London
New York - Paris
etc

To tell you the truth though, I don't see this happening in the short term.

YOWza



12A whenever possible.
User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13114 posts, RR: 100
Reply 5, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5450 times:
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Quoting YOWza (Reply 4):
To tell you the truth though, I don't see this happening in the short term.

I agree with you. But when we do see all Y A380's, they will have a lot of routes to chose from.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30984 posts, RR: 86
Reply 6, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5435 times:
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Well any of the 747 all-Y charters might be a possibility, I suppose.

However, I think her CASM and size might serve as an incentive for those carriers to look at a "Premium Economy" or even low-level Business Class seating section to extract some extra revenues for not much more money. I think you could find a score or two people per flight who would pay an extra $100 or so for a slightly wider seat (2+4+2) with another five inches of legroom or so.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25311 posts, RR: 22
Reply 7, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5399 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
Well any of the 747 all-Y charters might be a possibility, I suppose.

French leisure carrier Corsair, with both charter and scheduled routes, has 587 seats on their 6 747-400s, a few more than the domestic 747-400Ds in Japan. They could squeeze on a dozen or so more if they did away with a small 5-abreast premium economy section in part of the upper deck.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30984 posts, RR: 86
Reply 8, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5359 times:
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Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 7):
French leisure carrier Corsair, with both charter and scheduled routes, has 587 seats on their 6 747-400s, a few more than the domestic 747-400Ds in Japan. They could squeeze on a dozen or so more if they did away with a small 5-abreast premium economy section in part of the upper deck.

But the A380 would allow them to expand that cabin as well as the regular economy cabin.

As such, I really do not expect to see the A380 operate in an all-Y configuration. Even within China and India, the need for such a plane is likely much more marginal then people believe (otherwise they too would be using 744D and 773D planes like the Japanese) - most likely because of lack of infrastructure outside of the largest cities and the more effective use of heavy high-speed rail to connect those cities.


User currently offlineDon81603 From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 1185 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 5188 times:

I wouldn't be surprised to see Air Transat pick up a few for their Canada Caribbean flights. They could easily do YYZ-HAV,POP-PUJ and back, dropping off and picking up at each stop. That would free up a few of their 300's and 310's for other destinations.


Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines.
User currently offlineFuturecaptain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 5158 times:



Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 3):
So why are you talking such short hop routes?

Because most people I assume would not fly on a plane with such a small seat pitch and 800 other people on a long haul. Not even for a cheaper airfare.
And having 800 people on an A380 would definately be  crowded  on a long haul.

Quoting Don81603 (Reply 9):
I wouldn't be surprised to see Air Transat pick up a few

I don't believe the economics will work if you just pick up "a few" A380's. Having maintanance spares, crews, and special handling equipment spread out over 10-15 birds would probably be the minimum to have an efficient operation.
IMO.


User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13114 posts, RR: 100
Reply 11, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 4974 times:
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Quoting Futurecaptain (Reply 10):
And having 800 people on an A380 would definately be crowded on a long haul.

You're obviously not 'cheap enough' for their target market.  Wink

Seriously, business classes start out by:
1. Telling you that 'you are not your target market'
2. There are multiple markets for every type of item sold.

So there are premium markets of different flavors, markets for LCC's, and everything in between. (Hence why some airlines have F, J, Y+, and Y!) As Asia's middle class grows, I hope they travel more.  bigthumbsup  Some of these passengers will be premium, but some will be cheap and looking for low cost travel. I see a future with some all Y A380's. Heck, considering the fares West Coast US to India, I could see a dozen A380's in all Y traveling that route (with an intermediate stop). If both airports have 3-jetway gates, it wouldn't be that bad.

But not in the near term. There is more revenue potential offering at least some J class seats today. But I would be surprised if EK doesn't offer all Y by 2012.  Wink

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineFly2CHC From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 4775 times:

Kingfisher have ordered them and it remains to be seen whether it will be 100% Y or include some J/F.

User currently offlineRedChili From Norway, joined Jul 2005, 2284 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 4724 times:



Quoting Futurecaptain (Reply 10):
Because most people I assume would not fly on a plane with such a small seat pitch and 800 other people on a long haul. Not even for a cheaper airfare.

You've obviously never been to Scandinavia! A lot of Scandinavians are willing to get onto veeery crowded airplanes to fly half way around the globe just to save a handful of bucks. MyTravel, TUIFlyNordic and Novair fly some extremely cramped airplanes from Scandinavia on 10-12 hour flights to Thailand and many other faraway destinations. On average, these planes actually have a much higher load factor than the average SQ 772. Most flights are totally full with not one seat left.

Many of these flights are on A330s, with nine seats abreast! TUI has 763s with eight abreast seating! Being on a ten-abreast A380 would be luxury compared to many Scandinavian charters. MyTravel has A333s with 408 seats. An A380 with 800 seats would be far, far, far roomier than an A333 with 408 seats.

I'm quite sure that if TUIFlyNordic could get their hands on an A380 with 800 seats, they could use it right now for their charters from ARN to BKK and HKT.



Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
User currently offline333 From Norway, joined Dec 2007, 9 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 4633 times:

Quoting RedChili (Reply 13):
You've obviously never been to Scandinavia! A lot of Scandinavians are willing to get onto veeery crowded airplanes to fly half way around the globe just to save a handful of bucks. MyTravel, TUIFlyNordic and Novair fly some extremely cramped airplanes from Scandinavia on 10-12 hour flights to Thailand and many other faraway destinations. On average, these planes actually have a much higher load factor than the average SQ 772. Most flights are totally full with not one seat left.

Many of these flights are on A330s, with nine seats abreast! TUI has 763s with eight abreast seating! Being on a ten-abreast A380 would be luxury compared to many Scandinavian charters. MyTravel has A333s with 408 seats. An A380 with 800 seats would be far, far, far roomier than an A333 with 408 seats.

I'm quite sure that if TUIFlyNordic could get their hands on an A380 with 800 seats, they could use it right now for their charters from ARN to BKK and HKT.

This is true. From OSL, MyTravel flies their A333's twice a day down to Gran Canaria! That route alone generates over 800 passangers. And in the summer i'm sure those A332's and A333's are moving thousands in and out of Norway every day. Does anyone know if MyTravel/Thomas Cock is planning on buying some new planes?? And if a A333 is to small, what is next??? 77W? A346? Somehow I don't see that coming... More likely a 744?

This was a bit OT I know... Sorry.

[Edited 2008-01-26 01:26:29]

User currently offlineR2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2630 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4161 times:

Air Comet (Marsans Group). They do low cost flights Spain-LatAm and are getting two A380s. Not sure they'd go all the way to 800PAX, but they will definitely be high density.

As for Asia, there are a number of routes where that could work. In fact, I wonder it a hypothetical 4000nm A380-700 for high-density high-frequncy operations would be feasible.


User currently offlineManfredj From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 1132 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 3510 times:



Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 3):
So why are you talking such short hop routes? We're easily talking SIN-SYD, DXB-STN, ICN-SYD, ICN-LAX/SFO. Where do I stop? Ok, DXB-SYD/MEL is out, but most routes could be handled.

Yes, well I'm usually an optimist and these routes seem viable, but you would never WANT this many seats on these routes because there isn't that much seat demand on them.

I'm not trying to bash the 380, but the bottom line is, Singapore may be able to get away with the aircraft because they have a specialized product, but I would be very worried if I were another carrier operating this airplane. Wouldn't a 748i be a much safer choice? Unless you have a high density route like the one mentioned above, and it's ALWAYS full (is this likely...no) you don't need all those seats.

With the Asian markets downgrading their high density 747's to 777's it should be a good indicator that even in the most dense markets such a large aircraft isn't needed. And why would you want to be flying around airplanes at 1/2 the passenger desnity it was designed for? And when you do add the extra 300 seats, the airplane can't fly as far as needed for ultra long haul?

I have never understood the A380 and it's purpose.  confused 



757: The last of the best
User currently offlineTonystan From Ireland, joined Jan 2006, 1437 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 3107 times:



Quoting Vincewy (Reply 2):
Didn't I hear that A380 isn't designed for short hauls, if ANA gets it, it(they) will be used only for long haul or at most regional flights.

Actually EK intend on using some of their A380's on flights to India including Bombay and Delhi which are only 2 to 3 hours away from Dubai. They also intend on operating the routes in a very high density in comparison to the rest of their A380 fleet!



My views are my own and do not reflect any other person or organisation.
User currently offlineMEA-707 From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4328 posts, RR: 35
Reply 18, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 3029 times:



Quoting Manfredj (Reply 16):
I'm not trying to bash the 380, but the bottom line is, Singapore may be able to get away with the aircraft because they have a specialized product, but I would be very worried if I were another carrier operating this airplane. (....) I have never understood the A380 and it's purpose.

There have been many threads about this, I thought they died down now we see EK, LH place repeat orders and BA, AR join the band wagon. Did you try warning EK management they were out of their minds? Let's return to the subject of Y seated A380s.
I imagine EK will soon a low cost arm with all Y A380s for the bulk shuttles between DXB, India and the Philippines with people who work in the Arab countries and their VFR, throw in a few flights to London and Sydney for the backpackers and this can be a standalone operation with say 15 A-380s and 15 777s.



nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
User currently offlineMsnyx From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 130 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 2813 times:

I heard that since he already has an ultra-plush 747, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal is going to fit his A380 with max density Y seating so he can feel like a common man.


If I rise on the wings of the dawn, if I settle on the far side of the sea, even there Your hand will guide me
User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10025 posts, RR: 96
Reply 20, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 2735 times:
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Quoting Futurecaptain (Reply 1):
Since having so many people on the plane would cut the range down so dramatically



Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 3):
At the maximum structural payload the A380 has a 6500nm range folks!

 checkmark 
AND that maximum payload still leaves a few tonnes for cargo after 800 passengers board the plane  Smile

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
However, I think her CASM and size might serve as an incentive for those carriers to look at a "Premium Economy" or even low-level Business Class seating section to extract some extra revenues for not much more money.

I happen to agree with you that many A380 users will try and leverage the extra real-estate the A380 offers to either increase revenue, or offer a better product for similar cost.

Quoting Futurecaptain (Reply 10):
And having 800 people on an A380 would definitely be  crowded  on a long haul

An all Y A380 with 800 pax would still be 10-abreast on maindeck and 8-abreast on upper, meaning that you'd still get more shoulder space than on a 777 at 9-abreast, and CONSIDERABLY more shoulder space than on a 744 (or 748i for that matter), at 10-abreast.
As for pitch, I understand the 853 all Y certification configuration was at 32", so even 800 pax should allow more pitch than that.
In other words, just about anyone flying long-haul on blue-chip carriers "Y" products on a 747 today will have less space.

How much space do you want?  Smile
Add in the fact that you'll even arrive at your destination without the tintinitus associated with other aircraft models a "generation behind"  duck , and you're looking at quite considerable comfort, for a low-cost "Y".

Regards


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30984 posts, RR: 86
Reply 21, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 2713 times:
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Quoting Astuteman (Reply 20):
AND that maximum payload still leaves a few tonnes for cargo after 800 passengers board the plane.  Smile

Actually, 850 passengers with an industry average of 1.5 bags per passenger and 35 bags per LD3 would pretty much fill all 38 LD3 positions the A350-800 has with suitcases.

On the flip side, even at 525 passengers, a 777-300 still has half of her 44 positions open for cargo (and 14 more then the 747-400D with a similar passenger load, which would have 8 open positions).

As such, I really do not think we will see a maxed-out A380. EK's 644 seat configuration, for example, would still leave 10 open LD3 positions.


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10025 posts, RR: 96
Reply 22, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 2687 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
Actually, 850 passengers with an industry average of 1.5 bags per passenger and 35 bags per LD3 would pretty much fill all 38 LD3 positions the A350-800 has with suitcases.

Thanks for that, Stitch.

In which case an all Y 800 seater A380-800 will never reach full structural payload, and will therefore comfortably beat the nominal 6 500 Nm range...  Wink

Regards


User currently offlineA342 From Germany, joined Jul 2005, 4682 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 2650 times:



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 20):
As for pitch, I understand the 853 all Y certification configuration was at 32"

Are you kidding me?!?



Exceptions confirm the rule.
User currently offlineGatoVolador From Spain, joined Apr 2007, 435 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (6 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 2640 times:



Quoting R2rho (Reply 15):
Air Comet (Marsans Group). They do low cost flights Spain-LatAm and are getting two A380s. Not sure they'd go all the way to 800PAX, but they will definitely be high density.

Marsans ordered two more A380: one going to Air Comet and the other one to Aerolineas Argentinas. So, 3 A380.

I don't know if their A380 will be crowded or not, but they said that in Argentina they would implement again "a real and impressive First Class". They also have Business Class, Premium Economy (on Air Comet), and Economy.

I don't know the real plans of Marsans, but Aerolineas Argentinas could get the premium passengers and Air Comet the others. A high-density A380 would be suitable for Air Comet. I wouldn't discard the possibility of flying all-Y aircrafts.


25 Post contains images Lightsaber : IIRC, the A388 has just under 3X the floor space of the 788. Thus... 800 isn't going to be too tight. With light weight seats that have 'knee cups,'
26 Viscount724 : EK plans to have 3 different A380 configurations depending on the route. They were originally planning on about 640 seats in 2 classes for their high
27 RedChili : Which rules out a high density seating for an airline like LH, which makes a lot of money on cargo. But for a charter airline, on the other hand, thi
28 R2rho : If this is so, then the concept of all-Y on an A380 would be much different than what we are used to today on LCCs or charter carriers - like those h
29 Post contains images Astuteman : FWIW someone's queried my understanding of the pitch, and I won't die in a ditch over that, but I'm pretty sure the abreast seating is correct. This
30 ORDagent : Thanks folks! I've got a feeling that the 380 will have the same problems as the 747 roll out. At first seats will be chasing passangers but as the pr
31 Baroque : Obviously the "not enough pax" group have never seen the queues of orange (or whatever is the colour of the day) "penguins" at Gulf airports. Interes
32 Post contains links and images Astuteman : For incontrovertible proof that the seating provided for the 873 person evacutation test in 77 seconds was 8-abreast on upper deck, and 10-abreast on
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