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747-8I Unlikely For BA Per Willie Walsh  
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31003 posts, RR: 86
Posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 14739 times:
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Air Transport Intelligence (subscription required - I get it through my library) has an interview with BA CEO Willie Walsh on BA's second widebody fleet order. He says the 747-8I is "unlikely", though he said it was not definitively out of the running.

He is looking at the 777 and the A350 and is interested in how the A350 tracks to specification and what additional improvements Boeing and GE can get out of the 777.

Initial A380 destinations being considered are LAX, SFO, HKG, JNB, SIN and AJJ. The goal is to condense 744 frequencies onto less A380s to free up LHR slots.

171 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAA1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3435 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 14737 times:

Interesting stuff.

I would have thought JFK would have gotten at least 1 A380- guess they are definitely sticking with frequency there!
I also would have thought that SYD would have been listed too!!

Where is AJJ??

AA1818



“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31003 posts, RR: 86
Reply 2, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 14595 times:
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Quoting AA1818 (Reply 1):
Where is AJJ??

Mumbai, India (assuming I'm using the right ICAO code).


User currently offlineBoeingFever777 From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 409 posts, RR: 53
Reply 3, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 14570 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Quoting AA1818 (Reply 1):
Where is AJJ??

Mumbai, India (assuming I'm using the right ICAO code).

Akjoujt (AJJ) Islamic Republic of Mauritania Northwest Africa.

Mumbia is Chhatrapati Shivaji International (BOM) India.



Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6921 posts, RR: 63
Reply 4, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 14557 times:



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
He says the 747-8I is "unlikely", though he said it was not definitively out of the running.

The fact that it is even being considered will surprise some.

Me, for example!  wideeyed 


User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12150 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 14347 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 4):
Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
He says the 747-8I is "unlikely", though he said it was not definitively out of the running.

The fact that it is even being considered will surprise some.

Me, for example!

Why?

LH ordered some B-747-8is, and also has A-380-800s on order.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6921 posts, RR: 63
Reply 6, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 14184 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
Why?

Because when BA ordered 787s and A380s they also announced which types were being looked at for the next big order. The 748i wasn't on the list.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
LH ordered some B-747-8is, and also has A-380-800s on order.

OK. There's one example. Find us another...  Wink


User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 14060 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 4):
The fact that it is even being considered will surprise some.

Me, for example!

What is he supposed to do? Rule it out completely and then negotiate with Airbus for 12 more A380s?


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6921 posts, RR: 63
Reply 8, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 14048 times:



Quoting Thorben (Reply 7):
What is he supposed to do? Rule it out completely and then negotiate with Airbus for 12 more A380s?

Why not? SQ did.


User currently offlinePlobax From France, joined Jan 2008, 116 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 14004 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 8):
Why not? SQ did.

yeah, sometime loyalty pays off.


User currently offlineFly2CHC From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 14004 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
LH ordered some B-747-8is, and also has A-380-800s on order.

Luftie is a bit of an anomally when it comes to widebody orders. They seem to have an aversion to twin engine long haul aircraft - hence the large numbers of B747s and A340s. This narrows them down in terms of options.


User currently offlineMoo From Falkland Islands, joined May 2007, 3948 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 13969 times:

The actual quote from Walsh regarding the 747-8i is this -

Quote:

Walsh says it is unlikely that the Boeing 747-8 will feature in the second part of the order. “We did look at it as an alternative when we were looking at the A380, and we chose the A380,” he says. “Quite honestly I don’t think we’ll be going back to look at the 747-8 again. I wouldn’t rule it out completely but, no, I don’t think so.”



User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12150 posts, RR: 51
Reply 12, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day ago) and read 13901 times:



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
The goal is to condense 744 frequencies onto less A380s to free up LHR slots.

The only way to free up slots at LHR, while condensing B-747-400 frequencies is to fly each and every A-380-800 with a 100% passenger load. If you only match a fully loaded B-747-400 (416 seats), that means you are flying 135 emepty seats, or the equivelent of an A-320 flying empty.

Keeping a 100% load factor (or even an 80% load factor), isn't going to last long once people realize that it will now take 2-3 times to get your luggage and get through Customs, because of your 500+ fellow flyers aboard.

Plus you are now paying the higher landing and parking fees of an A-380 compaired to a B-747. LAX is looking to almost double the current landing and parking fees (many other US airports won't be far behind, except possibly DFW). The cash registers at LAX will go ChaChing.


So where is the business case for the WhaleJet?


User currently offlineNCB From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day ago) and read 13880 times:

Lufthansa had 3 reasons to order the B748i:

-Lufthansa Cargo can convert it into freighters after its life as pax aircraft.
-Lufthansa has a bunch of A340's to replace, which can't be replaced by A350's nor A380's nor B777's.
-Lufthansa got a very good deal as launch carrier.

If there's another carrier who would order the B748i, it'll definitely not be BA.
They can't use the craft as freighter and they have no A340's to replace.

If there's another carrier that will order the B748i, it'll be AF-KL-AZ


User currently offlinePlobax From France, joined Jan 2008, 116 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day ago) and read 13854 times:



Quoting NCB (Reply 13):
Lufthansa Cargo can convert it into freighters after its life as pax aircraft

By the time they would convert them, there should be much better freighters available in the market.


User currently offlineNCB From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day ago) and read 13831 times:



Quoting Plobax (Reply 14):
By the time they would convert them, there should be much better freighters available in the market.

If all thought like you, we wouldn't see one converted freighter flying around.


User currently offlinePlobax From France, joined Jan 2008, 116 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day ago) and read 13819 times:



Quoting NCB (Reply 15):

Lufthansa Cargo has certainly the means to buy some nice brandnew B777Fs or A380Fs


User currently offlineRedChili From Norway, joined Jul 2005, 2290 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day ago) and read 13817 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 12):
The only way to free up slots at LHR, while condensing B-747-400 frequencies is to fly each and every A-380-800 with a 100% passenger load. If you only match a fully loaded B-747-400 (416 seats), that means you are flying 135 emepty seats, or the equivelent of an A-320 flying empty.

Keeping a 100% load factor (or even an 80% load factor), isn't going to last long once people realize that it will now take 2-3 times to get your luggage and get through Customs, because of your 500+ fellow flyers aboard.

Where do you get your "facts" from? Abou-laugh-ia?

Some real facts:

* BA has 291 seats on board most of their 744s.
* An A380 typically has around 35 percent more seats than a 744. The BA A380s will probably seat around 400 passengers.
* If you think that it will take three times longer to get through customs for 400 passengers instead of 291 passengers, you're living in a very unreal dream world.
* The first people off the plane will be first and business passengers, and they will get to passport control before the flock of economy passengers will come.
* No airlines today have any problems at all filling the economy class of airplanes just because the economy passengers don't want to wait for their baggage together with 400 other people.

I could go on and on, but I think you get the point.



Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
User currently offlineNCB From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (6 years 8 months 1 day ago) and read 13725 times:



Quoting Plobax (Reply 16):

And yet they are flying converted MD-11's...while better A332F's are available soon.


User currently offlinePlobax From France, joined Jan 2008, 116 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (6 years 8 months 23 hours ago) and read 13688 times:



Quoting NCB (Reply 18):

Yes, as you said, the A330F is still not available.


User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12569 posts, RR: 46
Reply 20, posted (6 years 8 months 23 hours ago) and read 13689 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
He is looking at the 777 and the A350 and is interested in how the A350 tracks to specification and what additional improvements Boeing and GE can get out of the 777.

Which is exactly what was said when they ordered their 787s and A380s.

Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
Initial A380 destinations being considered are LAX, SFO, HKG, JNB, SIN and AJJ. The goal is to condense 744 frequencies onto less A380s to free up LHR slots.

Swapping frequency for capacity? This was the holy cow that the anti-A380 brigade said BA would never do. Oh wait, they also said BA would never order the A380.

Quoting PM (Reply 4):
The fact that it is even being considered will surprise some.

But, looking at WW's exact quote, it isn't really being considered. Some won't accept it, but BA has made their VLA choice.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
LH ordered some B-747-8is, and also has A-380-800s on order.

The exception that proves the rule. LH is hardly proving to be a trend-setter in this respect.

Quoting PM (Reply 8):
Why not? SQ did.

SQ's comments on the A380 vs 748i make it pretty clear where they stand on the VLA choice as well!

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 12):
The only way to free up slots at LHR, while condensing B-747-400 frequencies is to fly each and every A-380-800 with a 100% passenger load. If you only match a fully loaded B-747-400 (416 seats), that means you are flying 135 emepty seats, or the equivelent of an A-320 flying empty.

But looking at BA's 747 seating gives a different picture - many of their 744s have less tham 300 seats. I would expect a similarly configured A380 to seat around 450. Look at LHR-HKK, BA flies 3 x 744 daily. Those 3 744s would be replaced by 2 A380s providing the same number of seats. Flying 2 A380s on that route will save BA around 30% on fuel and free up a precious LHR slot. A few extra quid for landing fees is nothing.

This is exactly what the A380 proponents have said was possible with this plane and the CEO of one of the World's top airlines just confirmed it. You can play all the numbers games you want, but I think WW might just know what he's doing!

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 12):
So where is the business case for the WhaleJet?

I guess the World's premier, profit-focused airlines like BA, SQ, QF, LH, AF, EK, etc. really don't have a clue and just spent $billions on A380s for no good reason? rotfl 


FWIW, my take on the A380 at BA is that they will certainly order more. I'd expect them to firm up their options before they take their first one, and then place additional orders.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1153 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (6 years 8 months 23 hours ago) and read 13666 times:

What will happen to the B748i if there are no more customers?
Will Boeing cancel the project and give Lufthansa back their deposit with some compensation, or is it likely to be build anyway?


User currently offlineHumberside From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2005, 4920 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (6 years 8 months 23 hours ago) and read 13632 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 12):
So where is the business case for the WhaleJet?

Slot restricted airports were larger aircraft are the only way to increase capacity

Quoting NCB (Reply 13):
If there's another carrier who would order the B748i, it'll definitely not be BA.
They can't use the craft as freighter and they have no A340's to replace.

BA do have a freighter operation, though currently subcontracted out (to Global Supply Systems)



Visit the Air Humberside Website and Forum
User currently offlinePlaneHunter From Germany, joined Mar 2006, 6808 posts, RR: 77
Reply 23, posted (6 years 8 months 23 hours ago) and read 13609 times:



Quoting Fly2CHC (Reply 10):
They seem to have an aversion to twin engine long haul aircraft - hence the large numbers of B747s and A340s.

They have 10 A333s in service, with more to come - and they fly on long-haul routes, even transatlantic. Also, when LH ordered its first A340s, the 777 wasn't available yet.

Quoting NCB (Reply 13):
-Lufthansa has a bunch of A340's to replace, which can't be replaced by A350's nor A380's nor B777's.

I don't see why A350s couldn't replace the A340s. The 748 is significantly larger.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 12):
So where is the business case for the WhaleJet?

The CEOs of some more or less leading airlines could certainly answer that question better than anyone of us...  Wink


PH



Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6921 posts, RR: 63
Reply 24, posted (6 years 8 months 23 hours ago) and read 13416 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 12):
So where is the business case for the WhaleJet?

It never ceases to amaze me how even simple folk luck us can work out profound economic truths that have somehow escaped the hundreds of highly-paid individuals in the world's airlines whose job it is to make these calculations and decisions. It's a wonder any of them are still in business...

Quoting RedChili (Reply 17):
Where do you get your "facts" from?

It's not 'facts' he's peddling...  Yeah sure

Quoting RedChili (Reply 17):
I could go on and on, but I think you get the point

But he won't...


25 Scbriml : Nothing, it will just carry on. No. They'll build the -8i even if LH is the only customer. The program can survive on freighter orders alone.
26 Post contains images Astuteman : Hardly. This doesn't appear to be the experience of those flying on SQ220 or SQ221 at this time, either anecdotally, or from first-hand experience. F
27 Imag : What are the logisics about operating a 744 and A380 on the same route? I'm thinking of JNB, where BA have two 744's a day. With SAA going from two 74
28 Scbriml : London to South Africa (direct) is a bit of a quirky route. As you say, the flights are overnight ones with the planes spending all day on the ground
29 TristarSteve : In my opinion BAs problem is that it wants to order a large twin aircraft to replace the rest of the B744s. It intends to order in the region of 80 la
30 Imag : BA have two 744's on the Cape Town route in the South African summer, so don't think they would route it via JHB. They also have the Comair operated
31 Post contains images PM : Looks like the order is Airbus's to lose. But 80 planes?! My God, that would be a tectonic shift if it happened!
32 VV701 : Additionally look at the departure times on HKG-LHR. The three daily flights depart at 1125 pm, 1145 pm and 1.10 am. What is the business case for ha
33 Theginge : I don;t think they will do this, tagging one flight on the back of another means that you have to take fewer passengers for the first destination to
34 Post contains images Zeke : If they get 5% of 2.1 trillion market with the A380 over the next 20 years, I think it is a worthwhile investment.
35 Bwvilla : Quite - LH has a strong cargo operation - 748i ensures that in the future, they will have a good pool of aircraft suitable for conversion to freighte
36 Theginge : But they might not roll two flights in to one as the A380 cannot take two 744's worth of passengers. What is more likely to happen, say in the case of
37 Scbriml : I wouldn't be quite that confident about an A350 order, but I certainly agree a BA order for 80 planes would be very surprising. Agreed. BA's orderin
38 NCB : I forgot to mention the B777F that's supposed to EIS this year. Yet Lufthansa will not order them for LH Cargo but convert existing B744's and later
39 Manfredj : Ummm, not MORE a function of the airport...but SOLELY a function of the airport. Cmon, customs doesn't have a vandetta against Boeing aircraft when p
40 NCB : Oh and expect a big bunch of 40 or 50 A350's + options for BA, mainly -900's -1000's and maybe some firmed B787 options but no additional orders for t
41 Stitch : The 747-8I will likely continue because there is no real reason not to build it. 25+ frames are 25+ frames and help the entire program's RoI even if t
42 Columba : They said a couple of time that they won´t order any new aircraft soon. Nevertheless it was reported last year that LH Cargo will get some older 744
43 Zeke : Agreed, the poorly thought out comment "take 2-3 times to get your luggage and get through Customs, because of your 500+ fellow flyers aboard" does n
44 Theginge : I don;t think that will be a reason to order them quickly if they do. Look at the 787 order, BA ordered them when the order book was full until 2014
45 NCB : As someone stated, it is solely a function of the airport or it is better to say the handling. At a given time, the number of personnel available to
46 Stitch : That BA has added additional 777s - and continues to evaluate the model - implies that they are not in an immediate hurry to get new planes. They lik
47 Post contains images NCB : Have you considered that they may have been ordered sooner than they were announced?   The same will happen with the A350XWB, they can't wait till F
48 Speedbird128 : The die hard A380 haters just don't give up... all that's left to harp on is this... You think an entire airport is waiting just for an A380? Or that
49 Post contains images Stitch : And yet, the contract determines when the planes are delivered. So I could order 787s in 2004, but not need them till 2012 so that is my contracted d
50 Post contains images JRDC930 : I would think passing the plane over a few month's back, was a fairly CLEAR statement about what BA thinks about the 748i; i guess this finally makes
51 OldAeroGuy : It's possible that the A380 has a great business case for airlines that order them, but less so for the OEM. It all depends on how many the airlines
52 Post contains images Astuteman : Sorry if that touched a sensitive nerve somewhere - it was in no way intended to slight Boeing or the 777 - I would have made the same comparison if
53 SEPilot : Reading Willie Walch's statement leads me to believe that the chances of BA ordering the 748i are close to those of Bill Clinton endorsing Barack Obam
54 Post contains images JRDC930 : This is quite probable i would say. From a business perspective, boeing has nothing to loose from the 748i being a sales failure as it seems to be he
55 Post contains images Astuteman : Although parsing THIS statement, even only break-even for the OEM provides unmeasureable (as opposed to immeasureable) benefits in terms of assisting
56 A342 : While this makes sense, it is not certain at the moment. IMO they should have sent the combis to LH Cargo after 9/11. Now they have been equipped wit
57 Mariner : I've never understood why - here - I should care if the A380 breaks even or not. I doubt that too many people here have shares in EADS, and neither E
58 OldAeroGuy : Spending the cost of A380 program to insure future cash flow rather than future profits would seem to be a questionable business case. Investing the
59 GDB : Whatever Walsh says in public (as a future negotiation stance?), internally within BA, it has been understood that whatever of the big 4 engined types
60 Astuteman : Don't disagree, OAG, and you're right, the money might well have been better spent elsewhere (although I'll argue perhaps that this wasn't as obvious
61 Bmacleod : Really don't see much use for the 748I in BA after the A380 order and the fact that the 777-300ER and A350XWB are the top contenders for the next orde
62 Trex8 : wasn't one of the reasons given by Airbus when contemplating entering the VLA market, which till then was monopolized by Boeing, was that by having a
63 A380900 : Consider it done. Airbus will be the dominant aircraft manufacturer for the next 15 years and most of its strength will come from the A380. Disgruntl
64 OldAeroGuy : Fair enough, but a lot of other people do seem to care as they are quick to respond when the A380 business case is questioned. The Concorde also fits
65 OldAeroGuy : Time will tell.
66 AirbusA6 : As BA presumably will need to order a few more VLAs, WW could hardly say an ABSOLUTE no to the 748i, as this would remove any bargaining power with Ai
67 Mariner : Possibly because, as airline/airliner enthusiasts, they can't see the relevance - here. Surely you can't think the financial debate is at an informed
68 Mike89406 : Can someone tell me how many 748's have been ordered firmly?
69 Stitch : 25. 20 for LH and 5 for BBJ.
70 JRDC930 : In other words virtually nothing.
71 Post contains images Brendows : 26. 20 for LH and _6_ BBJs.
72 Stitch : They have also sold 78 747-8Fs, so total sales are 104.
73 Mike89406 : Hmm... a little early to be calling the 748i a flop don't you think? Interesting....the 748 is not even in production yet.
74 JRDC930 : True keeping in mind the 748F is a diferent program. Its also the one thats keeping the 748i alive. Btw freighters arent as fun to spot from an enthu
75 OldAeroGuy : Only amplifying it. Oh. I thought we were talking about the A380.
76 Thorben : And he can't keep civil aviation and military history apart.
77 OldAeroGuy : Why not? They come in liveries not found on passenger airliners so they add depth to the entire spotting experience.
78 Mariner : Oh. I thought we were talking about Mr. Aboulafia the analyst. To limit the discussion about him to the A380 drags the debate back to the A380 busine
79 Stitch : The costs and revenues all eventually collapse onto the same general line-item, so when weighing RoI, you need to factor in both. Boeing might very w
80 Stitch : If that failure impacts Airbus' ability to launch future products, it could matter in that we'd have less new planes to look forward to. But that doe
81 Post contains images Mariner : Well, yes, I agree. But as you say: And as I said: The failure of the business model of Concorde totally impacted the ability of those specific manuf
82 Speedbird128 : EK do operate 744F, albeit on lease.
83 Flighty : United's new premium class is going to be pretty good. As for BA... what he's saying is he really wants the A380-900, which will seat let's say 525 p
84 Thorben : EK operates the 744F, Volga-Dnepr operates the 744F (and other 747Fs) through AirBridge Cargo, DAE is a newly founded company that is not going to op
85 Trex8 : there's a thread somewhere here saying SQ finds the trip costs of the A380 only several % points more than their 744s.
86 Post contains links and images A342 : Air Bridge Cargo (the Volga Dnepr subsidiary which operates the 747s) just received the first one: View Large View MediumPhoto © Carl Hendriks -
87 CJAContinental : Significantly, if BA finds that it does not initially fill up their A380's as full as it profitably predicted, then they may be forced to use existin
88 CJAContinental : My last post, I mean filling 747's that fly more frequently transitioning to filling A380's flying less frequently, may occur more slowly than predict
89 Mariner : But there's the rub. It may be "pretty good". It may be better than that. Within a year, United is going to be competing on some of its trans-Pacific
90 Scipio : People look at the A380's business case from too narrow a perspective. The A380-800 considered by itself might never become profitable. The A380 famil
91 Flighty : ?? Any premium class that fits on a 748, they can put into their 744. I don't deny the competition over the Pacific will face a new A380 dynamic. Wha
92 Stitch : While I don't discount your argument, Mariner, UA has already been competing against superior products from SQ and NH within Star and CX, QF and BA ou
93 OldAeroGuy : If it doesn't matter and is not worthy of discussion, why bother to have this forum at all? Yes, but the commomly held belief was that the monopoly B
94 StoutAirLines : My only concern is where the money for development of the A380 family would come from. Does anyone have any ideas? There was a very recent thread whe
95 Stitch : It may simply be a case of later models generating sales that normally would never have happened without those models which then helps make the entir
96 Stitch : Well the initial money came from a combination of RLA, revenues generated by sales from the rest of Airbus' product line, and market capital sources.
97 Viscount724 : LH was one of the first carriers to operate the A300-600 on transatlantic routes. If memory correct, they used the A300 for at least a couple of year
98 Scipio : Huh? The cost of derivatives is small change compared to the original program costs and compared to Airbus's annual sales. It will easily be financed
99 Zeke : Point of order, that was not the "sale" of an A380 to an airline, it was the asset transfer from one lease company to another of an existing operatin
100 Mariner : On Qantas, for example, the relationship with AA for domestic US - and further international travel is seamless. I didn't say they are "doomed" - I w
101 Stitch : In the end, any airline that can fill a new 747-400 can effectively make the same amount of money flying a new A380-800 with the same load factor sinc
102 HOOB747 : What are you talking about? Works for me dude!!! A 747-400F is just as beautiful as a 747-400. Love those freighters!
103 Astuteman : Because the trip costs ARE going to be lower than the 744, and A380, I still think there's that "gap" for the 748i, if the airlines forecasts show th
104 EGNR : BA selected the RR Trent 1000 for their 787s. The 748 is only available with GE GENX engines.
105 OldAeroGuy : Well, it does depend on a lot of factors. To mention just a few: How long it takes to sell the first 300 A388's. If a 525 seater isn't selling due to
106 Post contains images Lightsaber : There just seems to be no way we can discuss the A380 and not go A vs. B here on a.net. We need a 'throw down the glove' emoticon. (Not for you statem
107 LAXDESI : Capital budgeting decisions for A388R and A389 should be made without including any sunk costs--the $30 billion for the original A380 program. If it
108 Stitch : Any VLA purchased will be expected to have a minimum life expectancy of two decades (with the exception of maybe SQ, but that is driven by their tax
109 Stitch : Perhaps the 625-seater is more appealing? Boeing sold a lot more 365-seat 777-300ERs in the past few years then they sold 300-seat 777-200LRs. And re
110 LAXDESI : Good points. If the incremental cost of 748i is, say $1 billion, then it is strategically worthwhile for Boeing not to cede the market completely to
111 Post contains images JRDC930 : Ahh the 748i , She was much to young to die.. (20 sales no SERIOUS interest from any other airline) .... Seriously though, her prospects dont look too
112 CJAContinental : Ah, thanks for that. It answers my question anyway.
113 Scbriml : Well, more than one airline has complained that the -800 is too small! Is anyone other than SQ using a ULR plane for ULR ops?
114 Stitch : The majority of it should be labor, since the seats and other interior fittings are provided by the customer. The forward half or so of the planes ar
115 Stitch : I could see TG's BKK-LAX and BKK-JFK flights. Also IT's (planned) BOM-SFO and DXB-LAX if EK decides to launch it. Not sure where EY flies theres...[E
116 Mariner : I can't speak for anyone else, but I come here to share my enthusiasm for airlines and airliners with others. Usually it works. The negativity toward
117 Post contains images Stitch : If Airbus had not muffed the A380-800's entry into service, even with current orders the plane would be on her way to profitability and it is likely a
118 Post contains links StoutAirLines : It just doesn't work this way, not even, for Airbus... Those "costs of derivatives" must come from somewhere. All monies received on current models g
119 Post contains images EA772LR : Agreed on the Asian carriers. However, anyone that merges with DL will not be buying the 748I. DL wants to keep their brand name on any merger, and a
120 Post contains images Lightsaber : I recall reading the A388 costs 5% more to fly than a 744 per SQ. For the added premium yield, the A388 pays for itself. The real CASM long haul cham
121 JAM747 : Very true statements. A few years ago some on this forum were so negative about the A380, the A350 even the 787. To me these aircraft are doing well
122 Post contains images Scipio : Sorry, but this is not how it works. Models currently in production generate a positive cash flow, even after repayment of loans. Airbus has been usi
123 OldAeroGuy : How can you consider saying that a statement such as "the A380 will never fly" is in the same category as "the A380 has a yet to be proven business c
124 PVG : Or, why bother making comments on a business analysis if you don't care what he's really saying at the end of the day because you've already decided
125 WingedMigrator : Worse: they are either ignorant or downright dishonest in confusing 'building the airplane wrong' with 'building the wrong airplane'. They strenuousl
126 Atmx2000 : I think the business case was marginal, and apparently nonexistent for the freighter version. The delay is only one reason for terrible financials. T
127 OldAeroGuy : Extremely well put.
128 Mariner : Some of those proclaiming that it would "never fly" became those same people who insisted that the airlines would cancal most of their orders. A numb
129 PVG : last time I checked, execution is an intricate part of the business case/model. Anyone can buy business plan pro and knock out a business plan. Very
130 StoutAirLines : Sorry, but this is how it works. I'm in the business. And the legitimate discussion here is far more complex than just speaking to putative facets of
131 Scipio : I don't know what business you're in, how it organizes its finances, and how involved you are with its finances. You're still mistaken, though. The d
132 NCB : There's alot of pessimism that A388 will never attain break-even on the program without the help of its bigger brothers, but I still think it is very
133 Flighty : That is a very fair point. I was sort of ignoring that. Indeed you can book an "AA" flight from JFK to SYD and it looks very seamless on paper. That'
134 Post contains images Astuteman : And these are the sort of statements that I feel the urge to call BS on when I see them. The very studiously ignore the aspects of the aircraft that
135 Mariner : I have flown BOS-LAX-SYD on AA/QF, and it is seamless in fact, not just on paper. Going the other way, from a much smaller population, there is a mas
136 Post contains links and images Baroque : Oh no, now the Windsors are making a mess of Airbus production. Or is this another conspiracy theory from the owner of Harrods? Obviously, because wh
137 Post contains images PW100 : It's called A350-1000
138 Zeke : 5% of 2.1T reflects 45% of the market, I was being conservative, they are actually getting a lot more of it than that. Boeing is not still selling 74
139 GBan : An asset transfer from one company to another - isn't that the same as a sale?
140 Stitch : As Astuteman noted, the larger wing of the A380-800 improves wing efficiency across all stages of flight. And the Trent 900 and GP7200 have lower SFCs
141 Moo : This may not be true - Airbus may not necessarily have been using 100% of the net sale price of an A380 (price after manufacturing costs are taken in
142 Brendows : 21 million USD in 1969 is not the same as 21 million USD in 2008, you have to remember that the inflation rate from 1969 is above 400%.
143 Stitch : A 747-8I offers close to 20% more seating while an A380-800 offers close to 40%. And yet, as premium cabin products get more elaborate and take up mor
144 OldAeroGuy : What's wrong with being on the fence? I admit I'm not well informed enough to know the plans of potential A380 buyers and the state of the global eco
145 Post contains images Lightsaber : And that might be the competition... BA does love their Trents. And, if I may add, SQ has chosen to give each passenger *far* more floor space on the
146 JRDC930 : The 748i has had plenty of time to get another order---and they haven't. This plane is Dead on arrival, though i dont think LH will cancel, so we'll a
147 StoutAirLines : Aerospace. Corporate Finance. What business are you in? Let's dispense with the mental gymnastics, shall we? Those numbers would have only stood a ch
148 Zeke : You missed the point, it was a lease asset on the books with Airbus Financial Services (based in Dublin) not an aircraft that was sold from Airbus (b
149 Scipio : And what am I supposed to do with a response like this? Plug in different numbers and the pattern will still be the same. Deliveries = cash. That's t
150 Post contains images Astuteman : At least On 49% more useable deck space.. Before I flew to Australia last year, I really thought the 748i was a fully effective competitor to the A38
151 Scipio : Equivalent (or better) products will have to be configured in a 8Y layout on the A350. The question is: how well do the economics of the A350 in 8Y c
152 TristarSteve : From what Ive seen, BA has bought enough A388s when it converts the options. It has bought enough B787-800s to replace the B767-300s. It has bought s
153 Stitch : The A350 should have the edge just from being newer and lighter. From a product standpoint, a refreshed 777NG leading into a true 777RS (Y3) might ve
154 Flighty : That is more believable. Not to say I fully believe it. SQ has a motive to promote the A380. They want to hype it since it happens to be ideal for th
155 PW100 : If I may add my own speculation, I fully expect BA next WB order to be for the biggest and most economical twinjet available. That might be a carbon
156 Post contains images Astuteman : You won't be able to picture it if you think the fuel burn per passenger only drops by 10% or less. The A380's fuel burn (in SQ's configurations) is
157 Stitch : In addition to what Astuteman noted, trip cost is not solely based on fuel burn. Labor costs become more efficient (as each FA and ground agent suppo
158 Post contains images Zeke : Similar comparison a new A332 to a 10 year old 763ER.. the A332 has 15% more passenger capacity, but lower trip cost.
159 Thegeek : Doesn't that ignore airframe leasing/ownership costs? I couldn't see cabin crew either, but I assume that is included with flight crew. Your point is
160 Post contains images Stitch : Yes, but foreign flag carriers tend to over-staff - especially in the premium cabins. So say a 300-seat 744 has 14 FAs - 2 for the 10 in F, 6 for the
161 Stitch : I did the following calculation for an aviation blog, but I think it helps show why BA likes the A380-800. The advantage that the A380-800 offers BA i
162 Astuteman : Interesting analysis, Stitch. To pick up a point that Ikramerica raised on the LH 748i thread, did you/can you calculate the comparisons of Revenue/R
163 Stitch : Sure. Please note all totals rounded. BA's current lowest fares for a Thursday departure on-way JFK to LHR is: FIRST - $7574 Club World - $5208 World
164 Stitch : For the heck of it, I tried to calculate the fuel burn of a BA A380-800 vs. a BA 747-8I on a JFK-LHR mission using the LH figures as a baseline. Since
165 Post contains images Scbriml : So, all in all, it's not a bad little plane?
166 Post contains images Stitch : I declare it "acceptable". Seriously, the more I "run the numbers", the better she looks.
167 Post contains images Astuteman : Of course, I guess what really matters to the airine is the actual PROFIT relative to the cost of financing the purchase (i.e. the airline's ROI) - o
168 Post contains images Stitch : Assuming I'm using the proper equations and operands, based on my calculations using LH's fuel burn figures in liters per 100 passenger kilometers, a
169 Post contains images Astuteman : Reckon we're within error margin... Regards
170 Post contains images Stitch : Indeed. The higher the passenger density, the better the numbers seem to work out. For a 450-seat BA A388 vs. a 335-seat BA 747-8I on a JFK-LHR missi
171 AvObserver : IF 500 A380s are sold in 10 years; that sounds rather optimistic given the current pace, although maybe not impossible. And while Airbus will be the
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