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Aerorepublica To Add Additional Service To Panama  
User currently offlineClo1973 From Colombia, joined Apr 2006, 243 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3609 times:

I just read the agenda for Aerocivil´s meeting in February 6th, and I noticed that Aerorepublica will request additional frequencies from Cali, Medellin and Bogota to Panama (daily flight from each city). Is this for real?..I mean, does P5 really intends to implement additional service to PTY? or is it just a way to "block" any other Colombian airline with intentions to increase / add service to Panama....

Does anyone knows anything about this?

Thanks

28 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMD11junkie From Argentina, joined May 2005, 3148 posts, RR: 57
Reply 1, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3605 times:



Quoting Clo1973 (Thread starter):
I mean, does P5 really intends to implement additional service to PTY?

No, it's a way CM can get an extra frequency without being sued for monopoly or unlawful competition.  Smile



There is no such thing as Boeing vs Airbus as the queen of the skies has three engines, winglets and the sweetest nose!
User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4465 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 3444 times:

The current CM/P5 PTY-BOG 4x daily, CM/P5 PTY-MDE 2x daily and CM/P5 PTY-CLO 2x daily are utilized to attend the origin-destination traffic as well as allow connections through PTY. I wonder if these services will be increased later.
KL will commence AMS-PTY on March 30th sustained with interline cooperation given by CM/P5, in order to feed this flight mostly from Central America and Colombia.
SkyTeam group would furnish interestingly easier connections from PTY instead BOG, for those passengers originated whether in MDE or CLO and heading mainly to Europe, Central America and even other selected markets.

Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineVAAengineer From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 90 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3397 times:

Any chance of CM or P5 ever doing PEI-PTY?


God's Gift To Aviation
User currently offlineClo1973 From Colombia, joined Apr 2006, 243 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 3380 times:



Quoting VAAengineer (Reply 3):
Any chance of CM or P5 ever doing PEI-PTY?

That route was requested by P5 yesterday at Aerocivil´s meeting (daily flight). In about one week the Aerocivil will either have to accept it or reject it.


User currently offlineVAAengineer From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 90 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 3329 times:

I would rather make a connection JFK-PTY-PEI with CM than AV JFK-BOG-PEI, just too much hastle in BOG.


God's Gift To Aviation
User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4465 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3298 times:



Quoting Clo1973 (Reply 4):
Quoting VAAengineer (Reply 3):
Any chance of CM or P5 ever doing PEI-PTY?

That route was requested by P5 yesterday at Aerocivil´s meeting (daily flight). In about one week the Aerocivil will either have to accept it or reject it.

Aires is currently flying PTY-PEI 4x weekly with Dash 8 equipment and allowing around [37 to 50] seats on each flight.
If authorities accepts P5's mainline jet operations in such route, it would be interesting to analyze the behavior of the market later.

Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineRCS763AV From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4394 posts, RR: 12
Reply 7, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3248 times:

That is if AV let them do it:

http://www.eltiempo.com/tiempoimpres...ULO-WEB-NOTA_INTERIOR-3948651.html
(only spanish)

They have objected P5´s application saying it is disadvantageous for Colombia, as it is prejudicial for the devlopment of BOG into a larger connecting point. They have an argument there, but I don´t think the Colombian government will go into protectionst mode this time.



Les escribo desde el frío de mi verde altiplano.
User currently offlineLuisca From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3224 times:



Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 7):
They have objected P5´s application saying it is disadvantageous for Colombia, as it is prejudicial for the devlopment of BOG into a larger connecting point. They have an argument there, but I don´t think the Colombian government will go into protectionst mode this time.

That is one of the most far fetched arguments I have ever heard, most cities crave direct service and AV says connections are better. Hopefully the Colombian government wont be protectionist like other governments in the area (cough) El Salvador (cough)...


User currently offlineRICARIZA From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 2391 posts, RR: 26
Reply 9, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3208 times:



Quoting Luisca (Reply 8):
That is one of the most far fetched arguments I have ever heard,

Then you haven't heard many good arguments, because AV has a point. P5 is basically feeding CM in PTY when can do the same in BOG leaving investment or payments or whatever you want to call it, in the country.

I agree with RCS763AV though; I doubt that the Colombian authorities will accept the objection, but I would love it of they do.

Quoting VAAengineer (Reply 5):
I would rather make a connection JFK-PTY-PEI with CM than AV JFK-BOG-PEI, just too much hastle in BOG.

You can do it through BAQ, no hassle there.



I miss ACES, I am proud of AVIANCA & I am loyal to AMERICAN
User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4465 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 3138 times:



Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 7):
http://www.eltiempo.com/tiempoimpres...ULO-WEB-NOTA_INTERIOR-3948651.html

The press release states the request of 35x weekly new frequencies linking Panama City and Colombia.
Based on the previous comments:
P5 PTY-BOG 7x weekly
P5 PTY-CLO 7x weekly
P5 PTY-MED 7x weekly
P5 PTY-PEI 7x weekly
I am puzzled concerning to the usage of the seven frequencies that have not listed out.
This new business strategy will undoubtedly hurt the international market captured for AV through BOG due to the transferring center in PTY by means of CM/P5 network.




.

Quoting RICARIZA (Reply 9):
AV has a point. P5 is basically feeding CM in PTY when can do the same in BOG

However, connections through BOG on P5 are focused into the domestic market, whereas PTY would have the chance to supply international services there.

Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineSumma767 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 2559 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3111 times:



Quoting VAAengineer (Reply 3):
Any chance of CM or P5 ever doing PEI-PTY?

I am looking forward to reading the decision that Aerocivil makes on all the applications for the requests by Aerorepublica to Panama. As far as I know there has not been a revision of the bilateral, and all frequencies allowed by it, are currently in use.
What I expect to happen is to continue with the trend of Aerocivil granting "extra-bilateral frequencies" to Colombian airlines, and that is entirely up to the Panamanian authorities to accept them, without there being any right of reciprocity by Colombia to accept more frequency requests to Panamanian airlines. This is, of course, academic in the case of Aerorepublica, since it is entirely at the service of Copa Airlines -and whatever it's good for it, will be good for Panama's aeronautica.
The catch comes when other colombian airlines apply for routes to Panama -and they have done so- where Aerocivil will most probably withhold even extrabilateral frequencies, when the Panamanian authority has not dealt with any pending request. In that case, if the Panamanian authority wants more routes for Aerorepublica, it will have to accept to accept that Aires and Avianca have more access too.

Quoting Luisca (Reply 8):
Hopefully the Colombian government wont be protectionist like other governments in the area (cough) El Salvador (cough)...

The Colombian government has to find balance between promoting healthy competition and air communication without giving an unhealthy blow to the colombian air industry. Whilst Colombia is a market of paramount importance to Copa, Panama has little to offer to Colombian airlines, so to accept that Copa uses Aerorepublica to extract colombian passengers through the PTY hub at the expense of supporting more direct connections from Colombia itself has to have some limits.
The good thing is that air traffic is growing very healthily, and it can support both new destinations from Colombia as well as more traffic through hubs as PTY.
I would like to see P5 operating the likes of CLO/MDE-CCS, same for UIO, BOG-SJO (as it had requested, but failed to start), BOG-SAL and so on, rather than just being a feeder to Copa.


User currently offlineRICARIZA From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 2391 posts, RR: 26
Reply 12, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 3095 times:



Quoting Summa767 (Reply 11):
The Colombian government has to find balance between promoting healthy competition and air communication without giving an unhealthy blow to the colombian air industry. Whilst Colombia is a market of paramount importance to Copa, Panama has little to offer to Colombian airlines, so to accept that Copa uses Aerorepublica to extract colombian passengers through the PTY hub at the expense of supporting more direct connections from Colombia itself has to have some limits.



Quoting Summa767 (Reply 11):
rather than just being a feeder to Copa

Exactly!!!



I miss ACES, I am proud of AVIANCA & I am loyal to AMERICAN
User currently offlineRCS763AV From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4394 posts, RR: 12
Reply 13, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3040 times:



Quoting Summa767 (Reply 11):
BOG-SJO

AV is already promoting the route on most of Bogota´s bus stops. $199 both ways for starters.


Im sure OPAIN (the operator of BOG) is less than pleased with P5 taking pax away from the airport. They are investing 650 million dollars, so they have a voice in there. It won´t be easy for P5.



Les escribo desde el frío de mi verde altiplano.
User currently offlineSOUTHAMERICA From Colombia, joined Dec 2003, 2497 posts, RR: 10
Reply 14, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3027 times:

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 11):
The good thing is that air traffic is growing very healthily, and it can support both new destinations from Colombia as well as more traffic through hubs as PTY.

I honestly doubt it can. Flights from Colombia to Panama are going out with many empty seats, probably around the break-even limit.

But Copa isn't dumb, they know that those frequencies are extremely valuable. Even if they don't plan to use them immediately, just having the dormant authority represents a great asset.

On the other hand, Colombia is such an important market for Copa, that it wouldn't surprise me that they are simply planning to flood the market with all these new frequencies in order to position themselves over Avianca. A company the size of Copa can easily support this type of strategy, in which they simply choose to temporary loose some money in a certain market, over the long-term benefit of gaining power against their competitor.

No wonder Avianca sees this as a major threat.

Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 13):
Im sure OPAIN (the operator of BOG) is less than pleased with P5 taking pax away from the airport.

Sadly, OPAIN must be so busy trying to solve their money-ordeal with the Aerocivil, that they probably don't have enough time to worry about the airport itself.  


SA.

[Edited 2008-02-09 17:51:13]

User currently offlineLuisca From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 3012 times:



Quoting Summa767 (Reply 11):
The catch comes when other colombian airlines apply for routes to Panama -and they have done so- where Aerocivil will most probably withhold even extrabilateral frequencies, when the Panamanian authority has not dealt with any pending request. In that case, if the Panamanian authority wants more routes for Aerorepublica, it will have to accept to accept that Aires and Avianca have more access too.

Panama has kept a policy of open skies in which they will basically welcome any airline that decides to fly to Panama, this has been a problem with Colombia because panama has pushed for more bilateral frequencies without any will to negotiate on the Colombian side.

I dont agree with people that state that AV cant benefit from more frequencies, the Panama-Colombia market is HUGE and IMHO still largely untapped.


User currently offlineSumma767 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 2559 posts, RR: 6
Reply 16, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2961 times:

Quoting SOUTHAMERICA (Reply 14):
it wouldn't surprise me that they are simply planning to flood the market with all these new frequencies in order to position themselves over Avianca. A company the size of Copa can easily support this type of strategy, in which they simply choose to temporary loose some money in a certain market, over the long-term benefit of gaining power against their competitor.

Looking at some figures, and I see that they have already done a bit of "flooding" . That is certainly the case with the frequencies that Aerorepublica started to Panama over the last 18 months, and that have taken a while to mature, with international load factors now nearing 70% (for October, I expect that November and December will be better)
Now, Aerorepublica had been performing pitifully through most of 2007, but in the overall figures for Novermber and December, I can see that the company is on the turn, and hence they may be ready to increase the offer to Panama once more.

Snapshot for October:

Aero Republica (Total domestic and international)
...... .. ......2007....2006....change
ASM (mm)135.4....129.6....4.5%
RPM (mm) 77.8....86.9....-10.5%
Load Factor 57.4%....67.0%...-9.6 p.p.

Despite lower capacity, passengers carried fell disproportionally, with load factor falling almost 10 points. Something similar is true through most of 2007. The domestic operation being particularly poor, whilst the feeder operation improved month on month.

Snapshot for November:

...... .. ...... ...... 2007 ...... 2006 ...... change
ASM (mm) ...... 126.3 ...... 130.9 ...... -3.6%
RPM (mm) ...... 80.6 ...... 82.4 ...... -2.2%
Load Factor ...... 63.8% ...... 63.0% ...... 0.9 pp

Snapshot for December:
ASM (mm) (1) ...... 129.0 ...... 152.3 ...... -15.3%
RPM (mm) (2) ...... 89.8 ...... 95.3 ...... -5.8%
Load Factor (3) ...... 69.6% ...... 62.6% ...... 7.0 pp

Here we can see that load factor is much healthier than it has been, and whilst passengers carried are still less than the previous year, the fall is much less than that of the capacity, and thus the positive change in load factor.

AeroRepublica chose (or was forced to choose) the strategy of becoming a feeder, and in the process it forsaked its domestic operation (that still accounts for 90% of its traffic), losing a lot of market- a major management oversight- and let AV (especially SAM), and to a lesser extent Satena and Aires gain larger slices of the market whilst they were engrossed looking East - or perhaps it was more that they were engrossed by Panama.

But these latest figures make me think that some focus has been regained. Perhaps they will also start unlocking the potential that exists outside of being a feeder.

Whilst I can see that AV is worried by CM's mighty hub in Panama and its convenience for passengers to and from Colombia, and thus a challenge to BOG, I really think that Aerocivil will know how to manage the increase in frequencies between Colombia and Panama so that the colombian air industry is not badly jeopardised.
I also think that AV's growth in frequencies and destinations, and so a consolidation of its BOG hub, will be a bother to Copa, as it will pose increasing competition to the hub of the America's. A bit of mutual fear should be a good thing for consumers.

Quoting Luisca (Reply 15):
I dont agree with people that state that AV cant benefit from more frequencies, the Panama-Colombia market is HUGE and IMHO still largely untapped.

I think that it can, but the fact of the matter is that SAM applied for 4 x wekly freqs BOG-PTY and they were denied by Aerocivil, as there was a pending application (I think that it was by Aires) on the same route that needed to be sorted first. So unless that backlog is resolved, Aerorepublica will have to join the queue. Given that, I expect that Panama's aerenautica will indeed accept those extra-bilateral frequencies.

[Edited 2008-02-10 06:39:07]

User currently offlineRCS763AV From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4394 posts, RR: 12
Reply 17, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 2910 times:



Quoting SOUTHAMERICA (Reply 14):
OPAIN must be so busy trying to solve their money-ordeal with the Aerocivil, that they probably don't have enough time to worry about the airport itself.

They are already remodelling the main terminal. works will be finished in MArch. After that, the bigger construction will start.

Quoting Luisca (Reply 15):
I dont agree with people that state that AV cant benefit from more frequencies,

The Colombia-Panama market is not huge. It is a decently sized market, which has been able to sustain more frequencies because of Colombians that are transferring in PTY. The number of panamanians transferring in BOG is, well, minimal, as there isn´t strong O/D from Panama City (in not saying is small either). You can´t compare a the O/D of cities like Bogotá, Medellín or Cali to Panama, its at least twice as big, and in the case of BOG, twice as big as the whole country.

So yes, the Panamanian carrier has an advantage over the Colombians.



Les escribo desde el frío de mi verde altiplano.
User currently offlineSOUTHAMERICA From Colombia, joined Dec 2003, 2497 posts, RR: 10
Reply 18, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 2908 times:



Quoting Summa767 (Reply 16):
Looking at some figures, and I see that they have already done a bit of "flooding" .

Right, but the difference is that with the current "flooding", Copa is still probably managing to pull out a profit from its Colombian operations. The morning flights from BOG/MDE/CLO to PTY carry more passengers, but the afternoon flights carry more cargo, that's why Aerorepublica now operates MD-83 (with better cargo capacity) on most of its routes to PTY, and avoids putting the E-190s on these routes.

The real flooding, and hence the big bet, would be adding these potential third dailies to each MDE/CLO, and fifth daily to BOG. They would probably dillute loads to a point where flights would simply be unprofitable, and thus, they would be taking the risk of temporaily assuming an unprofitable operation, over the long-term benefit of damaging the enemy.


SA.


User currently offlineSumma767 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 2559 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2815 times:



Quoting SOUTHAMERICA (Reply 18):
they would be taking the risk of temporaily assuming an unprofitable operation, over the long-term benefit of damaging the enemy

So with this strategy we can expect Copa to gain more market share in the international traffic, certainly to and from points away from BOG to the Americas, and very soon, as we have mentioned before, the new KL service to AMS would be very attractive for passengers to and from many European destinations.
AV will hold its own at BOG, but it will have to work hard if it's to retain its dominance elsewhere, and there hindrances, such as the less than ideal infrastructure at it BOG hub -at least until the new terminal is builit- Also the number of destinations that it can offer from secondary cities is limited, but it should dare when it sees an opportunity.


User currently offlineLuisca From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2788 times:



Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 17):
as there isn´t strong O/D from Panama City (in not saying is small either).

Some numbers suggest that counting illegal immigrants there may be as many as 300000 Colombians in Panama City alone. This is a significant market for Central America, of course it doesn't compare to CLO-BOG or MED-BOG but for Central America it is very important, add connections through the Hub of the Americas and you have a really sizable market.


User currently offlineSOUTHAMERICA From Colombia, joined Dec 2003, 2497 posts, RR: 10
Reply 21, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 2773 times:



Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 17):
They are already remodelling the main terminal. works will be finished in MArch. After that, the bigger construction will start.

That's how it's supposed to be. But unfortunately, OPAIN has been fighting with the Aerocivil from the very moment they signed the contract. And the dispute hasn't stopped. They are not even fighting for details about the project, they are fighting for money. There was a huge misunderstanding regarding how much cash OPAIN owed to the Aerocivil, and now Aerocivil has sued them for an outrageous amount of money which OPAIN is refusing to pay.

I really hope this all solves out. This airport is something not only Bogota, but the entire country is expecting. But there are many interests behind it, and I have a very bad feeling about all this.

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 19):
Also the number of destinations that it can offer from secondary cities is limited, but it should dare when it sees an opportunity.

Unfortunately, everything points out that Avianca is going to do the total opposite. They are more than ever commited with the development of BOG as an international hub, as has been pointed out by the CEO himself lately. Consequently, we should expect they limit their growth outside of BOG to the necessary basics.

As Avianca continues to grow their hub and spoke system based in BOG, operating a point-to-point flight from an outer station becomes more expensive, and less attractive.

That's when Copa sees the chance to dig in. BOG is a huge market, sure, but there are other 36 million Colombians outside of Bogota to cater for.


SA.


User currently offlineSOUTHAMERICA From Colombia, joined Dec 2003, 2497 posts, RR: 10
Reply 22, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 2745 times:



Quoting Luisca (Reply 20):
Some numbers suggest that counting illegal immigrants there may be as many as 300000 Colombians in Panama City alone. This is a significant market for Central America

Think about it, Avianca has had the same old two daily BOG-PTY flights since many years ago. They aren't stupid, if the market really is so huge, they would have added a third flight long ago, just like they've done on BOG-UIO, BOG-GYE, BOG-LIM and BOG-CCS, all of which have received at least one additional daily flight in the last 3 years.

There is no doubt in my mind that Colombia is far, far more important for Copa than what Panama is for Avianca.


SA.


User currently offlineTACAA320 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2725 times:



Quoting Luisca (Reply 20):
Some numbers suggest that counting illegal immigrants there may be as many as 300000 Colombians in Panama City alone.

And they usually remain there, most of them using a low profile for living, until they legalize their status. They don´t use to fly between countries. I´ll bet that.


User currently offlineClo1973 From Colombia, joined Apr 2006, 243 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (6 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 2673 times:



Quoting Summa767 (Reply 11):
I would like to see P5 operating the likes of CLO/MDE-CCS, same for UIO

I think if either AV or P5 go for those two routes it would be a success.

If it is AV, it would help them to retain some of the passengers from Cali or Medellin that are flying to CCS and UIO connecting through PTY........at the expense of BOG as their hub.

If it is P5, it would help them to "sell" their current argument to support the increase in int´l frecuencies which is something like " we want to offer additional international connections to underserved cities...." . The latter of course at the expense of stop feeding some pax to Copa


25 Summa767 : In the case of CLO-UIO, AV could try flying an F50, perhaps as an extension of a MDE-CLO flight. I understand that the F100 may not be certified to o
26 2travel2know : I think the demand for CCS/MAR-PTY traffic is such, that CM should think of flying P5 MDE-CCS/MAR or BAQ-CCS/MAR just to free premium seats from the V
27 CM767 : In the same line of thinking, P5 should consider a HUB of their own them, there is MEX and SAL, where CM could not get more frequencies a flight from
28 2travel2know : IMHO, P5 should stay away from setting up a hub in BOG, yes BOG has the O/D but going for a head end competition-clash with AV hub is something P5 sh
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