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Airbus To Present Their Global Market Forecast...  
User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 3899 times:

Tomorrow, February 7th, Airbus is presenting their latest global market forecast for the next 20 years.

Given the fact that 2007 proved to be another strong year of sales, thus contradicting the widespread general idea that the surge in sales we've witnessed in 2006 was just a unique event, it will be interesting to hear how the largest aircraft manufacturer in the world sees the future unfold.

I think they will once more have to revise their projections upwards on all fronts, from 100 seaters to the VLAs!

You can follow the press conference live at 10:30GMT on:

http://www.airbus.com

53 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3380 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 3815 times:

I gues that they'll be backing these figures up with there monthly sales total for January (which should be quite spectactualr!).

User currently offlineAither From South Korea, joined Oct 2004, 858 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 3600 times:

It is now broadcasting on Airbus.com ...


Never trust the obvious
User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1132 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3516 times:



Quoting Aither (Reply 2):
It is now broadcasting on Airbus.com ...

Any exciting news?


User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12394 posts, RR: 46
Reply 4, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 3443 times:
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Not really.

One interesting question from Andrea Rothman, answered by Leahy with a rakish grin!

"Given your forecast of VLA numbers over the next 20 years, and Boeing's lack of sales of the 747-8i, have you revised your VLA market share above 50%?"

"Yes, we now believe we can get more than 50% of the VLA market, but I'm not prepared to announce what our target is!"



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3380 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 3395 times:

Did they present the sales figures for January as part of the same presentation?

User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8872 posts, RR: 75
Reply 6, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 3396 times:

A lot of detail was presented, too much for me to dissect on the fly.

Anyone wanting to see more detail of what was presented, Airbus set up a website for the new GMF

http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/gmf/



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 3351 times:

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 4):
One interesting question from Andrea Rothman, answered by Leahy with a rakish grin!

"Given your forecast of VLA numbers over the next 20 years, and Boeing's lack of sales of the 747-8i, have you revised your VLA market share above 50%?"

"Yes, we now believe we can get more than 50% of the VLA market, but I'm not prepared to announce what our target is!"

I saw his grin too... And John Leahy must have been quite amused to hear even Andrea Rothman no longer sees the lack of 748i sales as proof of the fact there is no VLA market, but rather timidly admits the A380 is just outclassing Boeing's product: the 747-800i is yesterday's best plane, dixit SQ and QF...

Quoting Zeke (Reply 6):
A lot of detail was presented, too much for me to dissect on the fly.

Let's go straight to the numbers which will be disputed most on this forum: the future VLA orders!

Airbus has these numbers for VLA sales over the next 20 years:

It sees 520 VLAs being delivered within 10 years from now and another 762 the decade after that, making a total of 1283 by the end of 2026!

711 of them are said to go to tha Asia-Pacific region, 274 to Europe, 157 to the Middle East and only 87 for North America, the rest being taken up by Africa (27 and Latin-America (16) and CIS (11).

A good one-liner from the report:
The world's fleet will consume 3 liters per pax per 100km in 2026: the A380 does it TODAY.

[Edited 2008-02-07 05:17:22]

User currently offlineAither From South Korea, joined Oct 2004, 858 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3251 times:

That's the exact VLA split between regions :



http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/g...nger-aircraft/very-large-aircraft/

Only 19 VLA for North America within the next 10 years but 116 for Europe !
In the Middle East it is more balanced, seems they need the VLA relatively sooner.

[Edited 2008-02-07 06:48:45]


Never trust the obvious
User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12394 posts, RR: 46
Reply 9, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3247 times:
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Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 5):
Did they present the sales figures for January as part of the same presentation?

No, they're still fiddling them.  wink 



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3380 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3215 times:



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 9):
No, they're still fiddling them.

:D so that they manage to win the 2007 race?


User currently offlineEvilForce From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3193 times:

So he forecasts 1,200 jets of 100 seats and up per year.

5% of which will be VLA. Assuming Airbus can now garner 75% share that's 45 A380's per year, which seems on target to me.

I haven't had a chance to read the entire thing yet, I just sent it to the printer to take away and read later, but I'm wondering if they see a need to increase production yet again?


User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3146 times:

Quoting EvilForce (Reply 11):
I haven't had a chance to read the entire thing yet, I just sent it to the printer to take away and read later, but I'm wondering if they see a need to increase production yet again?

In the text it is explained Airbus expects VLA orders to steadily increase, which nicely falls in line with their upped prediction of selling 30 A380s this year, compared to their claim from some years ago they'd be selling 20 a year on average and as such it seems reasonable indeed that A380 production may have to be increased to above 45 in let's say 10 years time or so to cope with demand... Especially given the fact that the A380 is going to capture far more of the VLA market than just 50%. Even 75% of the market of VLA sales seems on the low side really in my humble view. The A380 is outclassing its nearest rival the 747-8i in a way which even the 77W doesn't do to the A346, so the total market share of the A380 may as well turn out to be 90%!
Remember the forecast for 1,283 VLA is for pax planes only. I really see only a small time frame in which the 747-8i may have some success, since it's technology is already outdated from the start (something which will not improve its chances as time goes by) and also because of a very significant trend which is the up-scaling of the size of planes.

Airbus predict the size of planes will have to go up across the spectrum to cope with increased demand for reasons of both capacity and comfort, so the standard narrowbody in 20 years will be significantly bigger than today"s 737-7/A319, the standard wide body will be bigger than the A330/787-8, and the A380 (conceived as a plane of the next century) is according to them scaled perfectly for the future needs, whereas the 747-8i isn't. Given the ice-cold comments of QF, BA and SQ about the 748i, they seem to have a point there...

[Edited 2008-02-07 07:11:53]

User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3380 posts, RR: 9
Reply 13, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3146 times:



Quoting EvilForce (Reply 11):
I haven't had a chance to read the entire thing yet, I just sent it to the printer to take away and read later, but I'm wondering if they see a need to increase production yet again?

I can see how this could be justified - they delviered their 5000th plane in December and there's a backlog of over 3000 to be built - that's getting on for 5 years at the new upped rate.

I'd be very suprised if everyhing in the backlog gets delivered though - there will be cancellations now that orders are being booked for delivery as far as 13 years into the future (Hawiian's order last week!)


User currently offlineMontereytom From Greece, joined May 2007, 31 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3139 times:



Quoting EvilForce (Reply 11):

Their production plan is for 54 a/c per month by year 2010 (40 A320's,10A330/340?,4 A380) and also there are plans to increase A330/340!?! (did they look at A340figures for 2007?), at 11.That what Mr Leahy says at least.



Swissair CV990,DC8,DC10,Boeing747-300,A310,Olympic707,727
User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3129 times:

Interesting to read Airbus is seeing a big market emerge for long range freighters of more than 120T after mid-next decade and mentions the A380F several times in this respect... Wasn't it John Leahy who said Airbus was looking at re-launching the A380F in a couple of years? If they do so, first delivery would nicely coincide with that.... I think those who were quick to declare the A380F dead may be in for a shock surprise in a few years...

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30599 posts, RR: 84
Reply 16, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3110 times:
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Quoting EvilForce (Reply 11):
Assuming Airbus can now garner 75% share that's 45 A380's per year, which seems on target to me.

Which exactly matches their annual A380 production starting in 2010.


User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2694 posts, RR: 25
Reply 17, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3080 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 16):
Quoting EvilForce (Reply 11):
Assuming Airbus can now garner 75% share that's 45 A380's per year, which seems on target to me.

Which exactly matches their annual A380 production starting in 2010.

... and which I very much doubt that they will manage to achieve this rate compared to the current production rate (and even Mr. Enders stated that it's ambitious). Any news on this?


User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1871 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3074 times:



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 7):
Airbus has these numbers for VLA sales over the next 20 years:

It sees 520 VLAs being delivered within 10 years from now and another 762 the decade after that, making a total of 1283 by the end of 2026!

Not going to happen. If anything, It would be 600VLAs over the next 20 years. BTW I'm not counting Y3 as a VLA.

FYI: Y3-8: 360 seat "777-300ER" size, Y3-9: 420 seat "747-400" size.



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3068 times:

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 17):
I very much doubt that they will manage to achieve this rate compared to the current production rate (and even Mr. Enders stated that it's ambitious

That's not what Mr. Enders has said.

He said that the out-of-serial-production of the first twenty-something A380th is a very complex task and that Airbus must constantly pay close attention to not falling behind schedule again. So far however, they are showing to be slightly ahead of schedule, but Mr. Enders signalled a constant need for caution.

Pumping out 45 A380s in 2010 will not be a very difficult task, what is a much more difficult task is to deliver the required lower numbers in the years before that. It was this very fact which Mr. Enders referred to.

[Edited 2008-02-07 07:56:04]

User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3036 times:



Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 18):
Not going to happen. If anything, It would be 600VLAs over the next 20 years. BTW I'm not counting Y3 as a VLA.

Ah, an alternative GMF. Now, where's the link to your report, I'd love to see your graphs leading to this conclusion. Big grin

Bottom line of the Airbus GMF (as well as last year's Boeing GMF):
forget anything from the past as constituting a good guidance for the future,
forget about the US as being the leading aviation market for the future,
forget about most of the well known main airports in the US and EU as the world's major hubs in the future,
forget about transatlantic flights as the main long haul routes;
growth is going to be EXPONENTIAL, MASSIVE and it will come from the Far East (Asia/Pacific), with China and India as the 2 biggest single markets.

We've been staring in total amazement at the overwhelming number of large orders from that region for last few years now; the sign should be clearly visible on the wall by now, don't you think?


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3380 posts, RR: 9
Reply 21, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3019 times:



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 20):
We've been staring in total amazement at the overwhelming number of large orders from that region for last few years now; the sign should be clearly visible on the wall by now, don't you think?

and I think that they're going to continue - I think that China and India are only just getting started as far as long haul planes go - sure there will be casualties but there's going to be massive sucesses too!


User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1871 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3007 times:



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 20):
We've been staring in total amazement at the overwhelming number of large orders from that region for last few years now; the sign should be clearly visible on the wall by now, don't you think?

I do, but at the same time note that nobody ordered 50+ A380s, with the exception of EK.

Now planes in the A350-1000/777-300ER category... Totally different story. Trans-Pacific fragmentation will be a repeat of what happened on the Trans-Atlantic market. We will most likely see at least 1500 77W-class 350-seaters delivered over the next 20 years. It has already started. Just sit and wait for the A350-1000 frozen specs and the launch of Y3-8...



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlineEvilForce From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 2991 times:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 12):
Even 75% of the market of VLA sales seems on the low side really in my humble view. The A380 is outclassing its nearest rival the 747-8i in a way which even the 77W doesn't do to the A346, so the total market share of the A380 may as well turn out to be 90%!

Very true. But the 747-8 will continue to sell as a freighter quite well I imagine. I would say that's worth 15 airframes a year. Also, even if Boeing "only" wins one LH sized order every other year (20 frames) that's still an additional 10 per year. Granted maybe the 747 is only a mentionable competitor for the next 5 years or so, but I think it will be hard for Airbus to garner more than 75% total market share on the A380/F program vs. the 747.

[Edited 2008-02-07 08:23:26]

User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9978 posts, RR: 96
Reply 24, posted (6 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 2983 times:
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Quoting Slz396 (Reply 19):
Pumping out 45 A380s in 2010 will not be a very difficult task

Dunno. The quoted monthly maximum for a given line never quite pans out over 12 months. I'd predict that the A380 lines 4 per month turns out to deliver about 40-42 aircraft in a year. I might be wrong, but Airbus failed to deliver more than 80 A330/A340 last year despite planning to crank the output up from 8 per month to 9 per month.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 20):
Bottom line of the Airbus GMF (as well as last year's Boeing GMF):

What interests me most is the way the overall size of the forecasts (from both manufacturers), increases every time. The last GMF I saw from Airbus (2 years ago?) identified $2.2 trillion overall value over 20 years. This one is now at $2.6 trillion over 20 years.

And 24 000 planes in 20 years supports long-term production targets of 600 per year for both B and A (compared to today's 450  Wow! )
(New entrant in the timeframe, anyone?  Smile )

Also, if I recall correctly, although the total number, and value, has risen, their forecasts for VLA's hasn't (feel free to correct).
I buy their argument that average sizes (seatings) in each class are rising/going to rise.

Interesting document. Seemed fairly realistic in its breakdown at first glance

Regards


25 Slz396 : I see the 747 happily soldier on as a freighter for the next decades, with the odd pax order put in too. What is noteworthy in this discussion howeve
26 BlueSky1976 : Yeah... I would love Bombardier to team up with Chinese and finally get their act together with C-110... then C-130... Then C-150.. then C-180... the
27 Aither : Considering the distances over the Pacific, frequencies are limited. If it has to be as crowded as the transatlantic it would be full of VLAs. Beside
28 EvilForce : Keep in mind Embraer/Bombardier are building about 100 airframes per year in the 100 seat + category with their 190/195 product, and Bombardier with
29 Stitch : I still believe that the 787 and the A350 will continue to fragment the trans-Pacific market, but I also believe it will never become as fragmented as
30 Post contains images Astuteman : Copywright that one quick, Stitch, before someone else plagarises.... In truth, I suspect they don't expect to corner 100% of this market. 2/3? Rough
31 Post contains images Scbriml : That would be worth paying to see! Of course they don't, and Andrea's question was immensely interesting, simply because of the grin on Leahy's face
32 Stitch : I'd be disappointed if Airbus can only score 60-70% of the VLA market. I just can't see the 747-8I scoring more then 100 total orders and frankly I'd
33 Post contains images Mariner : If they had - publicly - targeted more, wouldn't we run into the old, old (so old!) problem - Mr. Leahy derided by some as the Loud Mouth from Toulou
34 Post contains images Stitch : No doubt, alas.
35 Post contains images Scbriml : I didn't want to been seen to be an A380 cheerleader (I'll leave that to Astuteman!)    Without a doubt.[Edited 2008-02-07 10:52:19]
36 Post contains images Astuteman : Just tried on the Rah-Rah skirt and pom-poms..... Felt ridiculous! Mind you, from the look on my Missus's face, I think I'm on a promise..... Er....G
37 Post contains images Scbriml : Too much information!
38 Stitch : I admit to being surprised Airbus is only calculating some 2000 "intermediate twin-aisle & long-range freighters" over the next two decades. That esse
39 Post contains links and images Scbriml : Here's Andrea Rothman's report on the Airbus GMF conference. Interestingly, she makes no mention of Leahy's answer to her VLA question! http://seattle
40 Keesje : So what did she ask / what was the answer?
41 Post contains images Scbriml : See reply #4.
42 Paddy : I'm a big fan of Airbus but I've never agreed with them on this. I dont think planes will get bigger across the board, only in some segments. In the
43 Scbriml : But we're already seeing it from both Airbus and Boeing. The smallest 787 is larger than the biggest 767. The A350 is bigger than the 787. The 748i i
44 Post contains images Astuteman : I don't see anything in the GMF, or in the statement that sizes will increase, that contradicts this. More planes AND bigger Regards
45 Paddy : But is that necessary for all carriers? And is the A350 in any way superseding the 787? I think not... True. That seems feasible enough. I agree that
46 Scbriml : No, I'm simply pointing out that while Boeing's new mid-sized twin is larger than the plane its replacing, Airbus's new mid-sized twin is also larger
47 Montereytom : Do'nt forget JL they haven't ordered any VLA's yet ,they're not in a pretty good shape financially anyway. As soon as they come up with the money the
48 Stitch : Well Airbus says the market for the 787-8, 787-9, A330-200 and A350-800 is about 4000 planes over two decades. The A330-200 family (passenger and fre
49 R2rho : I see a few things worth pointing out (from the complete pdf document): - The cover page and title already hint towards it: a BIG section dedicated ex
50 Scbriml : The question we'll probably never get an answer to, is whether the sizing of the original A350 was constrained by sticking to the A330 cross-section,
51 Stitch : I don't believe so, since once Airbus considered CFRP for the original A350, they were able to narrow the cabin walls enough to fit nine-abreast with
52 Post contains links TUIflyer : 'European aircraft manufacturer Airbus has announced the details of it's latest 20 year market forecast and is predicting demand for 24,300 new passen
53 Aither : What they are saying is that demand is very concentrated internationally. Most of the business passengers can already fly point to point thanks to th
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